Ah, finally. Football, in all of its forms, is back — college, NFL, and guess what? The CFL is also still with us for a couple more months. That's why I have a pick from each. All odds courtesy of Bovada, all times Eastern Daylight.
College Football
North Dakota State (-2.5) @ Air Force (Saturday, 10 PM ET, FS1)
One reason I suspect that it's easy to dismiss my picks is that it relies heavily on transitive results. Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C, and yet Team C is a 12-point favorite on the road to Team A?
It is important to recognize a fluke as a fluke, to look at the larger picture and a larger body of work — when it's a available in a season.
So this isn't exactly going off of a transitive victory, but after clearing defending Conference USA runner-up Jacksonville State by 26 (in a game they were favored by 6.5), I am all in on North Dakota State. You probably noticed that at the FCS level they were utterly dominant in the last decade or two, and I don't see much in the way of growing pains in a depleted Mountain West Conference.
We don't know much about Air Force yet, having only played a non-elite FCS program, but I feel pretty strong about another Bison victory by multiple scores, be it on the road this time.
NFL
Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ Los Angeles Changers (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET, CBS)
One betting rule I love about the NFL in Week 1 (and to a lesser extent, in Week 2) is: "We don't know jack yet. We don't know who is good. We don't know who is going to surprise."
That's why in Week 1, it's worth finding and circling teams that are more than a 1-score underdog (Cleveland at Jacksonville is another example). This is certainly no endorsement of Jacoby Brissett, who I'm surprised beat out Gardner Minshew for the starting QB job in the desert. Rather, it's an abiding faith in the above rule.
That rule can benefit you in other ways, as well. It applies to the CFL. It really applies to the United Football League, where I genuinely recommend taking the money line on all underdogs in Week 1.
And, it applies to the NFL preseason. I know I'm a bit late with this particular bit of advice, but put it under your hat for future seasons:
Take all the moneyline underdogs in the preseason, too, and put two units against the spread on teams more than a 7-point underdog in the preseason (yes, such lines exist, and by my count, the favorite was 0-3 ATS in such games in 2026).
It's not just that it's preseason, where "winning the game" is a secondary concern, if that. It's that, in my estimation, oddsmakers way overvalue nuggets like, "Team A is gonna play their first unit the first quarter and a half, and Team B is only playing 3 of their projected starters" or whatever. All these games are, regardless of how they are constructed at kickoff, are going to come down to how the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers play.
(Also, my 50-year-old ass put "San Diego Chargers" in the Bovada search bar and wondered why the game wasn't showing up.)
CFL
Edmonton Elks (-3.5) vs. Calgary Stampeders (Saturday, 7 PM ET, CFL+)
Here's a CFL fun fact for you: they designate Labor Day weekend for rivalries. This means Toronto vs. Hamilton, Saskatchewan vs. Winnipeg, and Calgary vs. Edmonton. They also pair off two of the three teams without a real rival (Montreal, Ottawa, BC) and give the odd man out a bye.
The following week is usually the return trip for most of the Labor Day games. So it is with the Stamps and the Elks, who squared off in Calgary in the rain last week.
Calgary stormed out to a 25-7 lead in the third quarter before Edmonton pulled up their britches and got to work. Result: 38-28 final, in favor of Edmonton.
That's not really surprising considering Edmonton is one of the best teams in the league, and Calgary is not. I watched the game, and it did have the feeling of "better team wakes up and figures it out just in time" rather than two rivals going toe-to-toe.
Plus, Calgary QB Vernon Adams, Jr. absolutely melted during Edmonton's comeback, completing just 3 of his last 10 passes. I have lauded Adams in this space and I still think he's a very good quarterback, but "consistency" has not been one of his hallmarks.
Now that the game is returning to the home field of the better team, I'm just not buying a line that says it's going to be a war again, and I think the Elks complete the sweep comfortably.
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