By John
McManus
Saturday, March 9th, 2002
We are only a day away from one of the most anticipated days on the sports
calendar, Selection Sunday! Few things are more fun than analyzing those
brackets and teams that make up the field of 65. You could spend hours upon
hours on that and you wouldn't be bored for a second. Too bad most of us
have to get up for work or school on Monday morning, otherwise we'd be up
all night looking at those brackets. I know I would.
I am slightly disappointed in ESPN's decision to premiere it's film "A
Season on the Brink" on Selection Sunday. It's going to take me away
from my brackets, for heaven's sake! Oh well, at least there's three days
after that to continue indulging. It's the perfect amount of time, too, because
the brackets keep you busy for that length of time until you're all bracketed
out on Thursday and yearning for the games to begin. Still, nothing is like
the night of Selection Sunday when those brackets are fresh, tender, and
ripe.
To add to your Sunday night entertainment, I've put together a list of things
to think about before and after the selection committee releases the 2002
brackets:
Head west, young man. The West Region is the place to go if you're
a sleeper looking to make a serious run at the Final Four. Kansas looks like
they have the #1 seed in the Midwest locked up. Duke and Maryland are fighting
for the #1 seed in the East, with a consolation prize of #1 seed in the South.
That leaves the #1 seed in the West to a mere mortal team, setting the stage
for a wild free-for-all to get to Atlanta.
Better to be a 6 than a 5. The #5 seeds have historically been susceptible
to the first round upset but this year's college basketball landscape might
uphold the validity of that trend more than ever. To get to Atlanta, a #5
must first defeat what will most likely be a tough mid-major. Two days later,
they would probably have to beat a #4 seed. If they survive and advance to
the Sweet 16, chances are they would play Duke, Kansas, or Maryland and it's
lights out. A #6 would have a similar road to conquer, but they wouldn't
have to face a #1 seed until the regional final. In my opinion, this year
there will be less of a gap in talent between a #6 and #2 then there will
be between a #1 and a #2.
It's a brand new season. Just because a team is hot heading into the
NCAA Tournament, doesn't mean they have an easy pass into the Final Four.
Iowa, Indiana, North Carolina, Boston College, Oklahoma, and Texas all made
it to the championship games of their respective conference tournaments and
they were all sent home by the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament last
year.
#2's and #3's will drop like flies. I don't mean baskets, I mean seeds.
Don't expect to see all the #2 and #3 seeds in the Sweet 16. I feel that
several will have fallen by then. In this year's field, the gap between a
#2 and a #7 seed is minimal. Let's look at some possible #2 vs. #7 or #3
vs. #6 second round scenarios and tell me if you can clearly pick out the
better team, or better yet, tell me which team is the higher seed:
UCLA vs. Connecticut
Kentucky vs. California
Florida vs. Miami (Fla.)
See what I mean?
Finally, what we've been all waiting for. Will we see Duke, Kansas, and Maryland
all in Atlanta? Three #1 seeds making it to the Final Four is not common,
but it has occurred recently, in 1993, 1997, and 1999 (notice all odd number
years, if that means anything). I am willing to say with 50% assurance that
they'll all make it and with 99% assurance that at least two will make it.
This may sound silly, but look at how they do in the first round. Sure, they
should all win comfortably, but how comfortably? That's the question we need
to ask. If a #1 seed has a difficult time in the first round, it is not a
good sign for the future.
Remember that great 1997 Kansas team that was upset in the Sweet 16 by Arizona?
They only beat Jackson State by 14 in the first round. Purdue in 1996 was
almost the first #1 seed ever to lose in the first round. They pulled out
a close one against Western Carolina before losing in the second round to
Georgia. That same year, Connecticut only beat #16 seed Colgate by nine and
lost two rounds later to Mississippi State.
On the other side of the coin, look at the last three national champions
(all #1 seeds) and how they crushed in the first round: Duke won by 43, Michigan
State won by 27, and Connecticut won by 25. So Duke, Kansas, and Maryland
fans, I suggest you don't dismiss the significance of those first round games
and root for your respective teams to win big.
Oh, I can't wait for the tourney begin! Bring on those brackets!
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