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I'm writing this column from a hotel room in Durham, N.C., home of the Duke Blue Devils, which instantly makes anyone a smarter basketball writer.

I realized that since the matchups aren't set yet, I'd focus my energy on breaking down what makes a first-round upset. That's where the office pools are won.

First, the criteria. I don't consider a No. 9 seed beating a No. 8 seed an upset. So all upset data is computed without those games.

With that in mind, in the 102 games played in the first round of the last four years, there have been 25 upsets (nearly 25 percent of the games). So one in every four games is an upset, but it's closer to one in every three games if you also exclude the No. 1 versus No. 16 games because there's never been an upset in those matches.

In a breakdown of each seed, the No. 9 seeds have won half the time in the first round. The No. 10 seeds have beaten No. 7s nine of 16 times -- 56 percent. Only 18.7 percent, or three of the 16 No. 11s have won in the first round. But nearly half (seven of 16) of the No. 12 seeds have defeated No. 5s. Only a quarter of No. 13s, one No. 14, and one No. 15 have pulled upsets in the last four years.

So, pick half No. 9s, 10s, and 12s, and at least one 13 to move on.

Now, what kinds of teams do we select to move on? Well, I went and looked at the conference data. Obviously, we have to use common sense. Don't pick Southwest Missouri State over Maryland simply because these conferences line up in some statistical anomaly. But if used properly, this data can point you in the right direction when you can't decide on a certain match up.

The Missouri Valley Conference has pulled more upsets than any other conference in the last four years. Four teams have pulled five upsets, but the big one, No. 17 Creighton, is no longer a secret. Be careful of a nationally-ranked mid-major team. Remember Gonzaga last year. They expected a No. 3 or 4 seed. The committee gave them a No. 6 and a bad match up with Wyoming. All that Final Four talk went out the window with a first round loss. Creighton is in a very similar position.

But the other MVC team, Southern Illinois, is an NCAA regular and has pulled the upsets in the past. Keep an eye on their seeding and opponents.

The Mid-American Conference and the West Coast Conference have both defeated higher-ranked opponents four times in the last four years. In the MAC, Kent State has done it twice and Miami of Ohio has done it once. The WCC is a little misleading because three of the four upsets have been pulled by Gonzaga. No one takes the 'Zags lightly anymore. Pepperdine was responsible for the other upset.

The conference that is upset the most is the Big 12. Surprised? Well, it hasn't been any one team that has pulled the conference down. In each upset, it was a different school. All of the best were downed except for Kansas, who has a perfect 4-0 record in the first-round through the last four tournaments. Remember that. Kansas doesn't lose in the first round. I'd bet my house on it, but I don't own a house. So take that for what it's worth.

The Pac-10 and the Big 10 have both been upset five times in the first round; the Big East and Conference USA, three times each.

Now, for some conflicting information. Of the big conferences (ACC, Big East, Pac 10, Big 12, SEC, and Big 10), Big 12 teams when ranked a five-seed or lower have won the most games (nine) in the last four years. But the Big East, SEC, and the Big 10 are the only conferences with winning records in the same scenario, 7-6, 5-4 and 6-5, respectively.

But look a little deeper and you'll see that the Big East and the SEC have not fared well in the last two years. With the exception of Notre Dame, the Big East is 1-4 when ranked a No. 5 seed or lower (the lone win being Syracuse in 2001 against Hawaii). SEC teams are 0-3 in these circumstances in the last two years. The rest of the conferences maintain close to a .500 record with the same set of constraints.

Now, moving on in your bracket to the next round, I did some cursory research of the trends of upsets moving on deeper into the tournament. The trends would suggest that the number of low seeds making it to the Round of 16 and the Elite Eight are growing. Three teams that pulled first-round upsets last year made it to the round of 16, compared with one the year before and two the year before that. Two teams made it to the Elite Eight last year, compared with none in the last two years and only one in 1999.

And there is qualitative data to back up the statistical trend: college athletes leaving early and thus diluting the talent pool, and mid-major schools having experienced seniors going against the traditional powers, who are led by sophomores and freshmen.

And while this could be the first year, no first-round upset team has made it to the Final Four. In fact, in each of the last four years, half of the No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four -- two last year and two the year before that.

So, absorb the data. Give it a day or two to sink in. Apply it with common sense and maybe you'll be taking home some extra cake to blow on DVDs or a big-screen TV.

If I win the pool, I think I'll put it towards a down-payment on a house. Then, when I bet the house on my college hoops analysis, it can pull some weight. Know any Realtors in Durham?

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