By David Shaw
Thursday, September 5th, 2002
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Let's say that you and your significant other are out on the town. For our
purposes, you are a man and you have brought flowers, chocolates, and maybe
a small domesticated animal. The date moves to a fancy restaurant complete
with dusty, old, expensive bottles of wine, and even dustier and older
waiters.
Things progress, you make a witty remark, she laughs out of habit than anything
else. Then, you come to that fateful moment, you and her outside her door,
you lean in ... only to see her reach for her calculator. Twenty minutes
later, she tells you your score and leaves you frustrated and alone on her
doorstep. Welcome to the world of college football and the math equation
that governs it, the BCS.
Think that the situation above is unfair? So did Oregon and
Colorado last year, but that was only the tip of the iceberg. This
year has the potential to test the BCS more than it has ever been before.
In the words of a top BCS exec, this what they've been monitoring as their
worst case scenario.
A lot of ingredients have been thrown into the pot that has produced this
quandary, things like fewer NCAA scholarships, longer seasons (now 13 games
for some teams), and conference tournaments. All of these things have mixed
in together to provide a college football landscape where parity is at an
all-time, and undefeated season is getting less and less likely each minute.
So college football is more even now than it ever has been, what does that
have to do with the BCS' worst nightmare? Well, the BCS in each of its seasons
have gotten at least half of the national championship game correct. The
BCS has been able to hobble along the one good leg provided to them by an
undefeated team, even if the other leg gets blown off by 3-4 angry teams
come bowl decision time. The BCS may not be afforded that luxury any longer.
A very likely scenario this year involves any big team you want to think
up only have one loss. It is not a stretch to say that Miami,
Florida, Florida State, Nebraska, Oklahoma,
Texas, Ohio State, and on and on and on all will have one loss
when it comes time for the BCS to pump out its magic numbers. What does this
mean?
Well, it means that this year, conference tournaments are more important
now than they ever have been. Let's say Colorado and Oklahoma end up meeting
in the Big 12 championship game, each with one loss. My advanced football
logic tells me that someone is going to take a loss in that one, and drop
them far far out of contention for any kind of big bowl.
Nebraska showed us all last year that a late season loss is not a crippler,
but this year it will be. The winner of the Big 12 may very well end up in
the championship game, the runner-up might be camping out in front of 3,000
fans at the RandomWebsite.com Bowl.
That example may be pushing the impact of a loss a little too far, but it
is a simple reality that an undefeated team this year will be very hard to
come by. This puts all the pressure on a system that college football instituted
to take the controversy out of the national championship game. Surprise,
instead of 2-3 teams being angry this year for being slighted in the championship
game, you might see a line of 10-12 head coaches waiting for a shot at the
computer that robbed them of a title shot.
Remember all that talk about only allowing winners of their conference into
the national title game after Nebraska squeaked in over Big 12 champion Colorado?
Well, it didn't come down the pipe in rule form, but this year may just deliver.
With the importance of every game, especially that late in the season, conference
championships will make or break national championship contenders, the way
it should be.
The BCS is a lot of things: imperfect, impersonal, flawed, controversial,
and it will be all those things times 10 this season. The luxury of an undefeated
team is not something the BCS will be able to hang its hat on this year.
Finally, the system will get to be truly tested.
Roses, chocolates, expensive dinners, or in our case, a difficult schedule,
strong high-profile wins, and support from the polls does not a national
championship always make. Let the festivities begin.
Got comments? Questions? National championship to relationship references
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