By Adam
Russell
Tuesday, December 9th, 2003
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It's amazing how computers can really ruin hard work. It happens in all areas
of life: that long proposal for the sales pitch the next morning mysteriously
gets erased, or the machine unexpectedly shuts down in the middle of that
10-page term paper you haven't saved yet, or a college football team deemed
best in the land getting hosed out of a chance for the national
championship.
Ah, yes ... computers -- you can't live with 'em, and you can't live without
'em.
Not only has the University of Southern California been jilted out of the
Sugar Bowl by the BCS computers, despite being ranked number one in both
human polls, but my initial contribution to Sports Central has been derailed,
as well.
I had this grand column all ready to go about the bowls and the mediocrity
of the teams playing in them, with lots of stats and examples; but that has
all been shelved thanks to the developments Sunday in the Bowl Championship
Series.
Now, I'm not going to try to lobby for a playoff system in Division 1-A football,
although I do advocate for one, but rather discuss some tweaking to the BCS
system that could prevent a future travesty from happening again. As many
coaches, writers, and experts say, "the BCS is the best system we have right
now," but all agree that it needs some modification to work more effectively.
As it stands right now, the Bull Crap System has been responsible for keeping
two legitimate title contenders from actually being able to prove their worth
on the field. In 2001, Oregon thought they should have had the chance to
play for the national championship against Miami in the Rose Bowl when they
finished number two in both the AP and coaches' polls.
But Nebraska ended up number two in the BCS, sending BCS No. 4 Oregon to
the Fiesta Bowl to play BCS No. 3 Colorado, whom they destroyed 38-16. The
Rose Bowl wasn't much better with Miami handling Nebraska easily, 37-14.
The Ducks finished number two in both final polls and really wanted another
game against the Hurricanes to settle their differences once and for all.
Now, we have nearly the exact same scenario. Oklahoma is number three in
both "human" polls while USC and LSU are No. 1 and 2, respectively. Those
two should be playing in the Sugar Bowl next month. It's a travesty that
seven computers can circumvent what dozens of writers, broadcasters, and
coaches conclude unanimously. The BCS needs to be fixed right away before
this happens again.
As a fan and eventual alum of Washington State University, I grew up despising
the Trojans, with their smug demeanors, Barbie-doll cheerleaders, and that
God-awful fight song and death march they play after nearly every down. The
Crimson and Gray blood that flows through my veins is reveling in their misery,
but the general college football fan in me is also sympathizing with them
because the current system is truly ripping them off.
In years past, USC would face Michigan in the Rose Bowl, which is going to
happen this season, and LSU would have gone to the Sugar Bowl as the SEC
champion, which is also going to happen this year. Kansas State, as Big XII
champions, would have gone to the Orange Bowl, leaving the Sugar Bowl to
select the highest-ranking team available not locked into a bowl as conference
champion. In this case, it would be Oklahoma.
So, then, has the BCS really solved anything it was created to do, namely
avoid a co-championship? Of course not. All it is doing is further muddling
the situation by creating as much if not more controversy than the previous
poll system.
If speculations hold true, USC will beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl and remain
number one in the AP poll. The winner of the Sugar Bowl will be named number
one by the coaches' poll because they have to put them there. So, we'll have
a split championship again and cries for a playoff will be heard louder than
ever.
Many solutions to the BCS problem have been presented in the recent past,
including giving more weight to the human polls and bringing back the margin
of victory component to the computer ratings. A couple of modifications might
take some of the controversy and unfairness out of the process.
First of all, the computer ratings should be used only for tie-breaking purposes.
For example, if USC was number one in both polls, LSU was number two in the
AP poll, and Oklahoma was number two in the coaches' poll, then the BCS computers
would be used to determine who would play the Trojans in the Sugar Bowl.
This year, the computer average has Oklahoma number one and LSU number two.
Therefore, Southern Cal would play Oklahoma for the championship and LSU
would go somewhere else. If the two human polls agree on who is numbers one
and two, regardless of order, then those two teams should automatically advance
to the title game.
Secondly, the margin of victory component should be re-introduced to the
computer ratings, but with one primary modification. The MOV should only
be used when determining the so-called "quality win" adjustment and factored
when the teams are both ranked in the polls. For instance, Oklahoma's 77-0
win over unranked Texas A&M would mean nothing, but their 34-13 win over
then-24th-ranked Missouri would gain them an additional half-point or something
like that.
Depending on where the team was ranked that the other team defeated would
determine how many percentage points they would earn. Kansas State, ranked
No. 14 and winning over the No. 1 team, would receive 1.5 points for beating
a team ranked more than 10 places higher and maybe a bonus half-point for
beating the top-ranked team.
Finally, the computers should also take into consideration "quality" losses,
or even upset losses. Here, LSU would have more percentage points deducted
for its 12-point loss to an unranked Florida team than USC would for losing
in overtime by a field goal to unranked California. Oklahoma would have less
than either of those two schools subtracted for their loss in the Big XII
championship game against Kansas State, ranked 13th in the polls.
In the end, though, no matter how you slice it, USC is getting screwed and,
despite my hatred for the Men from Troy, I hope they beat Michigan in the
Rose Bowl just so everyone will finally see how completely unreliable the
BCS actually is. I know that we have a couple more years to contend with
this system, but I hope that some modifications can be made for next year
that will at least make it a little more palatable. After that ... bring
on the playoffs!
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