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MLB - Don't Expect Trades By Low-Payroll Teams

By Steve Goldstein
Monday, April 29th, 2002

Does payroll really matter? The short answer is yes. The long answer is more complicated. All six major league playoff teams from a year ago have to be considered contenders again this season, despite the personnel changes in Cleveland and slow starts in Atlanta, St. Louis, and Houston. The key reason, quite simply, is the ability - or, rather, the owner's willingness - to add expensive players to the payroll.

An incredible first half by the Minnesota Twins last season didn't convince skinflint owner Carl Pohlad to give General Manager Terry Ryan permission to acquire anyone more high-profile than setup man Todd Jones. Todd Jones? How about a hitter? The Reds were offering switch-hitter Dmitri Young for a top prospect or two. Young could have put Minnesota over the top. Instead, the Twins faded, in part due to a too-young everyday lineup.

One of this season's early surprises is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Improved attitude, chemistry, and defense have contributed to the Bucs' hot start. But what happens in August if the Pirates are within three games of either the NL Central lead or the wildcard? Do they make a significant trade? Do they try to pick up Denny Neagle and the rest of his four-year, $40 million dollar contract from Colorado?

They could, and, if they made the postseason, it would all be worth it. However, a reality check is in order. If Neagle decides that PNC Park is a great place to give up mammoth homeruns or, better yet, he feels some weakness behind his shoulder in his second start for the Pirates, then Pittsburgh is in the trash heap for the rest of Neagle's contract. They've already run into that problem with the ridiculously unwise signings of outfielder Derek Bell and infielder Pat Meares. When your team's payroll is $40 million dollars, you cannot sign players like Bell and Meares to multi-million dollar contracts.

There's often talk about how the Yankees buy their pennants. The truth is, they do. But the Yankees typically don't do it by raiding other teams, Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi to the contrary. The Boss' free-spending ways have allowed the Yankees to re-sign their own free agents and also absorb the signings that don't work out.

Case in point is David Cone in 2000. The Yankees paid him $10 million dollars - a quarter of the Pirates' payroll - and he went 4-14. But it ultimately didn't matter, because the Yankees could absorb that hit. The Pirates could not. And that is why, even if Pittsburgh's in the playoff hunt in August, they won't be making any player additions to PNC Park. And that is also why we'll be seeing at least four of last year's playoff teams back in the postseason this year.

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