By Peter
Friberg
Sunday, January 5th, 2003
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The offseason isn't over, but most of the substantial moves have been made.
While other teams may make a few (or several) moves that would give them
"winner" cachet, I felt the following five (plus one honorable mention) improved
themselves (for 2003) beyond the competition.
The teams are listed in alphabetical order:
1. New York Mets
In 2000, the New York Mets competed against the crosstown
Yankees for the World Series title. Since then, the Mets compiled
a 157-166 record. After a mediocre 2001 season, GM Steve Phillips
rebuilt the team. After a worse 2002 season, he was at it again.
Now for those that know me, I wasn't too complimentary after the Tom
Glavine signing. Glavine is very good pitcher (2.96 ERA in 224.2 innings
with 127 strikeouts and 78 walks), but my concern is that costing more than
$10 million per season for four season (the fourth year is a vested option
which will likely kick in), he will inhibit future moves that will be necessary
to keep this team competitive. Not to be completely negative, Tom will be
a positive for this team, especially in 2003.
Fortunately for the Mets' fans, Phillips was only getting started. The
high-priced, weak-hitting SS, Rey Ordonez, was unloaded to Tampa
Bay (while New York is still on the hook for the majority of the contract,
the savings more than paid for his replacement) ... Rey Sanchez. While
Sanchez isn't a hot-hitter himself, he is quite possibly the best fielding
shortstop in the game.
In the 2002 Edition of the Baseball Prospectus, one of their writers
said, "How good was Rey Sanchez's defense (in the 2001) season? Insanely
great, to the tune of 43 runs above average. That figure ties him for the
second best season of all-time..." While no defensive matrix is perfect,
we can still be confident that Sanchez is one of more phenomenal glove-men
in the game -- SportsCenter highlights or not.
While the above changes are/were good and necessary, one area the Mets needed
significant help was in the power department. New York only scored 690 runs
last year. Only three NL teams scored fewer ... their 160 HR netted a 10th
place NL ranking, but that's still not a total to brag about. Their outfield
managed only 54 HR. Within the division, only New York and Florida
did not a 30+ HR outfielder. Enter Cliff Floyd, stage left. Cliff
Floyd is exactly the type of bat the New York outfield has been missing.
He hit 28 HR last season and 31 in 2001. Adding his bat behind Mike
Piazza's should be boon to this offense.
The Mets are still old, and they are still expensive, but this year's version
won't be the pushover last year's was.
2. New York Yankees
After the new Collective Bargaining Agreement was reached, the Yankees vowed
that they would be under the $117 million threshold for the luxury tax. All
those that believed they'd do it, raise your hand. Okay, those of you with
your hands up, you're either lying, or not as smart as you thought were.
This offseason, the Yankees have spent, then did a little spending, then
spent some more.
After a disappointing first-round post-season knockout to the eventual World
Series champion, the Yankees determined that their outfield and rotation
would get most of their attention.
Already on the hook for: OF Rondell White for $5M, OF Bernie
Williams, $13M, and half of OF Raul Mondesi's $13M, the Yankees
went out and signed OF Hideki Matsui for $7M per year for three years.
Then, for good measure, New York re-signed pitcher Roger Clemens for
a one-year $10M contract after giving Cuban free-agent pitching refugee Jose
Contreras a $32M, four-year deal.
The Yankees might as well put their logo on the Revenue Sharing checks that
go out to teams as dictated by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Lord
knows most of the money comes from them.
So why are they the winners here? Because those guys can play. Though like
the Mets ahead of them, the Yankees are old and expensive. They still have
to be favorites in 2003.
3. Oakland Athletics
Oakland had three problems last year; all were evident in their 3-2
series loss to Minnesota. The A's needed another power-bat, they needed to
improve outfield defense, and the bullpen needed shoring up.
After losing closer Jason Isringhausen after 2001, Oakland GM Billy
Beane brought in Billy Koch for last season. Koch wasn't as good
as his numbers indicate. He did manage 44 saves and struck-out a batter an
inning (93 in 93.2 innings), but he also walked someone virtually every other
inning (46). He was effective, but he wasn't dominating. Billy Beane traded
him to the Chicago White Sox for Keith Foulke. Keith Foulke
doesn't have Koch's blazing fastball, but then Koch doesn't have Foulke's
control (Foulke posted a 2.90 ERA in 77.2 innings while striking out 58 and
walking only 13).
The A's also brought several new relievers into the fold. Their middle relief
looks much stronger than it did the last two seasons.
As for the big bat the A's needed, Billy Beane worked a three-team deal that
sent Erubiel Durazo to Oakland. Durazo only has 47 HR in four seasons,
and has only played more than 80 games once in those four seasons, but when
he's healthy, he posts gaudy numbers. If he can stay healthy for a full season,
he should easily hit 30+ HR and be a middle-of-the-lineup run producer to
go along SS Miguel Tejada, 3B Eric Chavez, and RF Jermaine
Dye.
Finally, to resolve his team's outfield defensive deficiency, Beane signed
Chris Singleton. Singleton is not the prototypical Oakland player
(he does not get on-base at a high rate). But Beane figured his team could
suffer through one offensive sink-hole in the lineup in order to shore up
their outfield. Singleton will play CF and shift Terrance Long to
LF. Long is not a bad defensive outfielder, but compared to other centerfielders,
his defense did leave room for improvement.
This little $40M-per-year club will again challenge New York (and
Anaheim) for AL supremacy.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
Okay, everyone knows what happened here. The Phillies signed Jim Thome
and David Bell to play the corner infield positions. While both are
highly-regarded, it should be noted just how dominant Thome is with a bat.
Last season, Thome trailed only Barry Bonds in OPS (on-base % plus
slugging) 1.381 to 1.122. And while Thome had Ellis Burkes in his
lineup protecting him, this year, Thome will be batting in a lineup that
already is home to the all-around talented Bobby Abreau and the slugging
LF Pat Burrell.
As for David Bell, his bat won't make anyone forget about Scott Rolen
(Thome's will), but his defense at third will be just as steady -- if not
quite as spectacular.
The Phillies will also introduce CF Marlon Byrd to the world. Byrd
actually arrived in the big leagues last season; playing in 10 games. Now,
however, the starting CF job is his to lose. Departing CF Doug
Glanville, while being a consummate professional, was an out machine
in the in lineup. The Phillies should get much more production out of Byrd
(adding Thome and Byrd to the lineup are good moves in and of themselves,
but because the two hitters replace the two worst regular hitting starters
in the lineup, the moves are particularly significant).
The Phillies already had the makings of quite a nice young rotation (Randy
Wolf, Vincente Padilla, David Coggin, and Brandon
Duckworth). But the Philly brass wanted an established ace to head the
rotation. They tried and failed to sign Tom Glavine. Then, because of some
poor planning on the part of inter-divisional rival John Schuerholz
(GM of the Atlanta Braves), Kevin Millwood landed in their
lap; essentially for free.
The Phillies bullpen still needs help, but this team should still cruise
to the divisional title. With a few more subtle moves, it could be the best
team in baseball.
5. San Francisco Giants
After reaching the World Series for the first time since '88, the
Giants knew they needed to do some pretty major overhauling. 2B Jeff
Kent was allowed to sign elsewhere (he had expressed desire to return),
and RF Reggie Sanders was not offered arbitration -- ending the Giants
ability to negotiate with him.
The Giants then signed Edgardo Alfonso and Ray Durham. Both
can play second, but both also have secondary positions (OF for Durham, 3B
for Alfonso). The most likely scenario has Durham at 2B and Alfonso at 3B.
Durham is a significant signing because for all the offensive prowess the
Giants have displayed the last few years, they have not had a high on-base
leadoff hitter. Ray Durham is that lead-off hitter. Durham owns a career
35.2 on-base percentage, but has only posted one sub-36% on-base percentage
in the last five years.
Alfonso's HR production was down last year relative to his better years (16
HR in 2002, 17 in 2001, and 25+ in '99 and '00). But hitting in front of
Barry will give him many fastballs to attack. Despite hitting in an extreme
pitcher's park, he should have no problem hitting 25-30 bombs.
In a coup, the Giants traded Russ Ortiz to the Braves for Damian
Moss and a hot minor league pitching prospect. Lefty Moss' numbers almost
mirror righty Ortiz's. But Moss didn't get to pitch in Pac-Bell every fifth
day, furthermore, Moss will save the Giants over $4M in salary costs.
The Giants still need to resolve their OF, but they should be able to plug
average hitters in there and can still expect gaudy team numbers (thanks
almost entirely to having Barry Bonds, one of the three or four best hitters
of all-time in their lineup).
The NL West again looks to be quite solid from top to bottom, but there's
no reason to suspect the Giants won't be in the thick of another title hunt
this season.
6. Cleveland Indians (honorable mention)
You may see this team and think that Cleveland is a rather odd duck
among the rest of these teams. That's fine to think that way, but when you
peel back the sour reality of losing a dominant hitter like Jim Thome, you
get to a rather sweet meat of the fruit astutely accomplished by Cleveland
GM Mark Shapiro.
First baseman Travis Haffner was on many team's shopping lists this
offseason. But the Indians landed him and pitcher Aaron Meyette from
Texas for catcher Einar Diaz and pitcher Ryan Drese.
Neither pitcher is significant, but both could surprise simply from a change
of scenery. Haffner, however, is a power-hitter whose path was blocked by
the many Texas hitters. Furthermore, this deal clears the weak-hitting catcher
Diaz out of way of catching uber-prospect Victor Martinez.
The Indians also have Karim Garcia. Garcia only played 53 games last
season, but managed 16 HR in that short time. While his 41/6 strikeout/walk
ratio is worrisome, his power potential is encouraging. He probably won't
make anyone forget Manny Ramirez, but he also is unlikely to resemble
the failed experiment that was Brady Anderson.
ESPN writer Peter Gammons listed 2004-2005 free agents in an article
a few weeks back (and it's quite an impressive list). What Cleveland has
done is trade off expensive older talent for a dearth of prospects and mid-level
serviceable players while streamlining what was a bloated team payroll. Now
this team is positioned to make another run like they did in the early '90s.
They now can afford to fill (through free agency) whatever holes their deep
farm system cannot.
Whether Cleveland fans will remember Mark Shapiro as the guy who traded
Bartolo Colon and Roberto Alomar and failed to re-sign Jim
Thome and Juan Gonzalez or if he'll be remembered as the architect
of Cleveland's next run is an interesting debate. Time will tell how successful
(and how soon) that next run is -- hopefully, Clevelanders realize and appreciate
Shapiro's execution of a daunting task.
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