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The Boston Red Sox will win the American League East. Quite a large claim to make considering the team hasn't won the division since 1995 or appeared in the playoffs since 1999.

However, even if you've heard it all before, this is the year the Sox overtake the Yankees. Let me break it down for you...

Solid core: The Red Sox boast quite possibly the strongest core group of players in baseball in Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Jason Varitek. Except for Wakefield, 36, all of them are in their late 20s or early 30s, which are prime years for athletes.

Health: Last season, Garciaparra batted .310 and hit 24 HR and 120 RBI despite coming off serious wrist surgery. His .310 average was solid, however, even if it was well below his .372 mark during the 2000 campaign. During spring training, Garciaparra appears more comfortable at the plate. His head is staying down on the ball and he's driving it to the opposite field, so it's safe to say he'll hit at least .330 or better this season.

Pedro Martinez, who missed most of the 2001 campaign due to a rotator cuff injury, went 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 239 strikeouts last season. However, he didn't throw the blazing fastball we were accustomed to seeing and, at times, lacked a dominating mound presence. Martinez has been clocked at 95 mph this spring and says he's confident and is more likely to have a season like he did in 1999 (23-4, 2.07 ERA, 313 strikeouts) than 2002.

Improved lineup: The Red Sox were 13-23 in one-run games and won "only" 93 games last season, partly because their lineup contained far too many automatic outs. Tony Clark's 3 HR, 29 RBI, and .207 average couldn't even cut it in Little League. Jose Offerman wasted 232 at-bats, hit .232, and knocked home just 31 RBI. Rey Sanchez had 16 extra-base hits the whole season. Brian Daubach can't hit lefties, compiled a .242 average, and struck out 20 times in 43 at-bats against the Yankees. These are not major league-caliber hitters.

But the Red Sox bid adieu to these stiffs and replaced them with guys who can actually hit and get on-base -- Kevin Millar, Jeremy Giambi, and David Ortiz. Millar has hit .302 against righties and .302 against lefties. He got on base at a .366 clip last season. Giambi hit 20 HRs in just 313 at-bats and had a .414 on-base percentage. Ortiz knocked in 75 runs and had 20 HR in 412 at-bats.

With the addition of these more disciplined and balanced hitters, the Sox should score at least 950 runs in comparison to the 859 they had last year.

Improved bullpen: Okay ... so the Red Sox don't have a trademark closer. Big deal. Unless you can get hold of a lights-out closer like Troy Percival or a healthy Mariano Rivera, there's no need to shell out top-dollar for a mediocre one just for the sake of saying, "This is the only guy I'm going to put in the ninth inning."

Alan Embree, Chad Fox, Mike Timlin, Ramiro Mendoza, and Bobby Howry are all capable of getting critical outs at any point in the game. The team's bullpen should vastly improve on its 15-22 mark last year. And let's say this closer-by-committee doesn't work. The Sox have the money, and the bargaining chip in Shea Hillenbrand, to make a deal before the trading deadline.

Manager: Now that Grady Little has a year under his belt as a big league manager, he'll know when to take his starting pitchers out or let them continue. He might even bench Ramirez for not running out a ground ball against Tampa Bay. Although managers are vastly overrated, they do win or lose three or four games a season, which sometimes is the difference between a playoff berth.

Bottom line: The Red Sox are much improved while the Yankees aren't. The Sox signed proven talent while the Yankees signed unknowns Jose Contreras and Hideki Matsui and a complete fluke, Chris Hammond. The Sox should beat up teams in their division, especially Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore. They need to improve on their 19-17 record in the American League's Central Division, where the Yankees were 29-7 -- that was the difference in the division right there.

There is no reason to believe that the Red Sox won't emerge on top other than the fact that, well ... they are the Red Sox. However, they will win AL East and finish 98-64. Then how about a World Series?

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