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MLB - The Beltran Sweepstakes' Unlikely Winner

By Piet Van Leer
Sunday, June 27th, 2004
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Here I was, all set to go off on a rampage about how Jason Schmidt was the pitcher you had no idea about, and Gerry Hunsicker pulls off what is so far the deal of the season, acquiring the Kansas City Royals sensational five-tool centerfielder Carlos Beltran.

And if the term five-tool doesn't excite you, well, you certainly aren't without your reasons. After all, there are more can't miss five-tool prospects, labeled solely because of their abilities to hit for average, power, run, throw, and field, who turn out to be absolute busts.

Fans can't figure it out. Neither can the scouts, and their sole function is to evaluate who would make the best future major-leaguer. But Carlos Beltran is one of the few five-toolers that makes the fans, and scouts, look good. A five-tool player that lives up to the grandiose billing, and a switch-hitter to boot!

Houston is certainly proud of themselves for executing this coup. What really changes the balance of power, though, is not what the Astros took, but what they gave up.

Octavio Dotel was also part of this three-team trade, albeit a much less discussed aspect. He was shipped to Oakland, and cured the most glaring achilles of the A's ... the closer!

Dotel's numbers were good, but not good enough to keep the crows from picking at him in Minute Maid Park. Fourteen saves in 17 chances was deemed inadequate for the win-now Astros, and Oakland gladly stepped him.

The A's have blown more saves (14) than saves (13) this season through Friday, yet were still right in the thick of the race. Dotel's ERA was almost a run and a half better on the road than at home. Throw in his 50 strikeouts in 34 2/3 innings pitched, and Billy Beane thinks he got himself a steal of a deal.

What's more, Beane also procured money from Kansas City! Now I know critics have sarcastically dubbed Beane "The Genius," what with "reinventing" baseball yet never making it out of the first-round of the playoffs, but for him to get almost a million bucks from the Royals ... I mean the Royals sometimes charge their players for Pepsi, and they trade the hottest commodity in baseball and Beane squeezes out some loose change, as well? He must be doing something right.

While Carlos Beltran might be a great player, the bottom line is the Astros will go as far as their pitching will take them. Unless Andy Pettitte gets healthy, Roy Oswalt becomes dominant again, the Astros will still be running from behind all season, no matter how any bats they get.

In the Junior Circuit, the team most impacted by the A's acquisition is the Red Sox. Most pundits figured whichever team didn't win the East would surely wind up in the winner of the wildcard.

Assuming Texas' pitching catches up with them, Anaheim and Oakland figure to be locked in a pennant race right to the bitter end. And with the A's getting stronger, who knows how long Arte Moreno waits to counter? The Angels' owner has already displayed his willingness to spend in order to improve, so how long before names like Randy Johnson are bandied about in Disneyland?

The Big Unit has certainly shown he is still an elite pitcher, but Jason Schmidt has been the best pitcher over the past two seasons. On the same night that Randy was perfect, Schmidt one-hit the Cubs, then threw another one-hitter vs. the Red Sox last Sunday.

Schmidt's numbers are so absolutely staggering that he must be mentioned in any conversation that deals with the preeminent starters of the game.

Pitching is the bottom line. That's what makes me believe Dotel is the most important figure in the deal, and why the Cubs, more than everyone, are still the legitimate favorites in the NL Central, no matter how many goats are linked to their history.

Beltran will definitely bring excitement and intrigue to Houston, but in the end, Roger Clemens and Wade Miller will play more of a role in the Astros' future than the five-tool outfielder.

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