By Brad
Oremland
Tuesday, December 9th, 2003
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Five Quick Hits
* College Football: (1) Playoffs. (2) Traditional Bowl system. (3) BCS.
* Perspective: New England has won more games in a row -- nine --
than 26 teams have all year.
* The last time the Eagles won by less than a touchdown was a month ago at
Lambeau Field. The last time they actually lost was two months ago
at Texas Stadium.
* The Dallas defense has been having problems ever since the Bill Bowl, giving
up 20 against offensively-challenged Carolina before getting thrashed to
the tune of 40 points by Miami and 36 by Philadelphia.
* Bad losses come back to haunt you. Case in point: the Bengals and Packers,
both one game out of the playoff picture right now, each lost to Arizona.
Anyway, on to the rankings. Brackets indicate previous rank.
1) Philadelphia Eagles [1] -- Donovan McNabb is on fire. If you were
one of the people ragging on Donovan at the beginning of the season when
Philly was struggling, I think you should write to him and apologize. Mr.
McNabb can be reached at:
Philadelphia Eagles
attn: Donovan McNabb
NovaCare Complex
One NovaCare Way
Philadelphia, PA 19145
2) New England Patriots [2] -- Philadelphia, Miami, Baltimore, and
Tampa Bay all have good defenses this season, but I think New England's has
to be the best of them all. Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour are playing
at an All-Pro level and the defense is carrying a team that has no offensive
stars other than Tom Brady. Bill Belichick will get a lot of Coach of the
Year votes.
3) Indianapolis Colts [6] -- The Colts are a completely different
team with Edgerrin James back in form. Peyton Manning is the best play-action
QB in the NFL, and when teams have to respect the run, it opens things up
for Peyton, too. Mike Vandergjagt is having a sensational season.
4) St. Louis Rams [5] -- Before this season started, I felt like Aeneas
Williams was a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. At this point, I can't
see him not getting in. He and Lovie Smith have been the keys to St. Louis's
defense resurgence, and now the team is winning with its defense at least
as much as with its offense. Smith should get a lot of looks from teams with
head coaching vacancies.
5) Tennessee Titans [4] -- Imagine, if you will, how good Tennessee
will be next season if they land Travis Henry or Duce Staley in the offseason.
Or if they draft someone like Darren Sproles or Chris Perry. The Titans are
a very real Super Bowl contender this season, but if they add a top running
back to their roster -- Staley probably doesn't qualify, but he's still an
upgrade -- Tennessee could be a forbidding Super Bowl favorite next year.
6) Kansas City Chiefs [3] -- Run defense is clearly this team's weak
point, and their one saving grace may be that the AFC's strongest contender,
New England, has a mediocre running game. That said, I can't imagine teams
won't continue to exploit K.C.'s weakness all season. I'd drop them further
for their ugly meltdown in Denver, but there's no one to move up.
7) Miami Dolphins [7] -- Sometimes, when you play against a really
good team, bad things happen. That pretty much sums up Miami's offense on
Sunday. The defense was good, though, and I don't think anyone misjudged
the Dolphins last week when they were getting so much praise. I'd like to
see if Miami can do anything in the playoffs.
8) Baltimore Ravens [12] -- The defense carries this team -- with
a little help from Jamal Lewis -- but Baltimore has scored more than 30 points
for three games in a row. The Ravens are peaking at exactly the right time,
and I could see them upsetting a team like the Chiefs in January. I could
also see them beating the Raiders next week without calling a pass play.
Brian Billick is the kind of guy who would get off on that. He's also, for
my money, the best head coach in the NFL.
9) Denver Broncos [14] -- Homefield advantage makes a huge difference
for both Denver and Kansas City, but I'm not sure the Broncos aren't really
better than the Chiefs right now. I am, however, sure that KC is 11-2 and
Denver is 8-5. It's a shame that either Denver or Miami will miss the playoffs
-- and that anyone from the NFC, other than Philly and St. Louis, gets to
go. I'd rather see Denver, Miami, and Cincinnati than Minnesota, Carolina,
and Seattle.
10) Green Bay Packers [9] -- I'm a little concerned that teams seem
to be shutting down Ahman Green recently. The Packers haven't proven they
can beat a good team without Green's monster games, and now teams are stacking
the line and forcing Brett Favre to throw the ball. This team has all the
tools -- especially on defense -- but has underachieved this season and might
not make the playoffs.
11) Dallas Cowboys [8] -- Their opponents over the last four weeks
have a combined record of 37-15. That's an unforgiving run of games, but
the Cowboys' 1-3 mark in that span tells me they can't beat good teams. Even
if Dallas makes the postseason -- and their schedule gets easier over the
next three weeks, so that's a definite possibility -- the Cowboys won't go
anywhere. Are they better than most teams? Absolutely. Can they hang with
the best? No.
12) Cincinnati Bengals [10] -- Inflated their record against mediocre
teams before their recent blowout loss in Baltimore, but the Bengals are
actually 3-2 against teams with winning records this year. Jon Kitna had
a disastrous game on Sunday. I didn't see the game, but I notice that the
Ravens sacked him six times, and I suspect that Cincy's offensive line got
manhandled.
13) San Francisco 49ers [18] -- Last week, I noted of the 49ers, "Offense
was absent against Baltimore ... Jeff Garcia [had] four interceptions." This
week, San Francisco took out its revenge on the hapless Cardinals, scoring
50 points (34 by halftime), including six touchdowns by Garcia (four
passing, two rushing), who finished with 252 passing yards and no interceptions.
14) Jacksonville Jaguars [20] -- No one else deserves to be this high,
so the Jaguars get their second big jump in a row almost by default. They've
won two in a row and haven't lost to a bad team all season. Jacksonville
has been in every game until the end, too; the Jags haven't lost by more
than a touchdown since they played Tennessee six weeks ago.
15) New Orleans Saints [13] -- Aaron Brooks got sacked six times,
fumbled four times, and lost three of those fumbles. Now you know why New
Orleans lost to the Bucs.
16) Seattle Seahawks [15] -- Last week's amazing stat was that the
Seahawks had only been held below 20 points once this season. This week,
they scored a season-low seven points at Minnesota. I apologize for jinxing
your team, Seahawk fans. It might not be entirely my fault, though, since
Seattle is miserable on the road (1-5, with the win over Arizona) and against
good teams (1-4 -- with the win by one point -- in Week 3). The nice thing
about not buying Seattle's hype is that I don't have to lower them much even
when they lose by 27.
17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers [21] -- Now they've won two of their last
three, and the most recent losses (to Green Bay and at Jacksonville) don't
look so bad. The defense is still top-notch, and the offense is competent.
Tampa can't make the playoffs, but they can finish the season with some pride
and dignity.
18) New York Jets [16] -- Had trouble playing in Buffalo on Sunday,
but they've still been pretty good since Chad Pennington got back, and I
think they're much better right now than their record indicates.
19) Chicago Bears [19] -- If losing to the Packers in Lambeau is a
crime, consider the Bears guilty. But to be fair, they haven't gone into
Green Bay expecting to win since the late '80s. The Bears could give Minnesota
some trouble next week at Soldier Field.
20) Carolina Panthers [11] -- I'm going to keep beating the drum:
Carolina has lost three games in a row. They're 3-5 since October 12. They
haven't won by more than a field goal since September 28. They started the
season strong, but right now, the Panthers are below-average.
21) Houston Texans [17] -- Injuries did them in against Jacksonville.
When they're healthy, the Texans are a pretty average club, but they can't
be too competitive with Domanick Davis, Tony Banks, and David Carr all missing
from the lineup.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers [22] -- Kimo von Oelhoffen had three sacks
against the Raiders. Pittsburgh's defense is fine -- the linebacking unit,
in particular, is exceptional -- and when the offense does its job, the Steelers
can hang with anyone. I still think this team is about three offensive players
-- QB, RB, OL -- away from being scary good.
23) Buffalo Bills [23] -- For the second week in a row, I've mentioned
Travis Henry's possible departure from Buffalo after this season. But the
way Henry has been playing, I don't know how the Bills will justify replacing
him with Willis McGahee. If I was going to trade a running back, it would
be McGahee, not Henry. A 25-year-old running back who has proven himself
in the NFL is not an expendable asset. An untested 22-year-old who's had
a serious knee injury, and could probably be traded for a high draft pick,
is.
24) Minnesota Vikings [25] -- This squad has lost its last three road
games -- by an average of 18 points against teams with a combined 16-23 record
-- but has won two recent home games, against the hapless Lions (with their
22-game losing streak on the road) and Seahawks (1-5 on the road). If they
beat Chicago this weekend, maybe I'll start believing in them again. Michael
Bennett looks good, at least.
25) Atlanta Falcons [27] -- Kudos to ESPN for the red line-of-scrimmage
feature they used to show Michael Vick's progress on runs and scrambles.
The whole Atlanta team played better with Vick in there. What an exciting
player to watch.
26) Washington Redskins [24] -- Broke their four-game losing streak,
and against a once-fierce division rival. Unfortunately, they still aren't
good. Congratulations to Bruce Smith, who is personally responsible for almost
all of the publicity the NFL's 20-year-old "all-time" sack record has gotten.
Smith is a shadow of his former self, but he was an elite player for a decade
and deserves recognition for his consistency as a pass rusher.
27) Cleveland Browns [26] -- At this time last year, the Browns were
putting together a surprising run that got them into the playoffs for the
first time since Art Modell took Cleveland's football team to the East Coast.
Now, though, the Browns are stumbling and Butch Davis is unexpectedly on
the hot seat, though Carmen Policy seems more likely to take the fall.
28) San Diego Chargers [31] -- How do the Chargers win when LaDainian
Tomlinson has 25 carries for no touchdowns and only 88 yards? Tomlinson gets
9 catches for 148 yards and 2 TDs.
29) Detroit Lions [28] -- No one will confuse San Diego's defense
with Tampa Bay's any time soon, and the Chargers held Detroit to 68 rushing
yards, including just 28 by leading rusher Shawn Bryson. Steve Mariucci really,
really misses James Stewart.
30) Oakland Raiders [29] -- I haven't checked to make sure, but I'd
be willing to bet that the Raiders are the only team to go to a Super Bowl
one year and lose eight games in a nine-game span the next.
31) New York Giants [30] -- The trend continues. Tiki Barber got a
lot of yards, but lost a fumble. Barber has only one game this season in
which he gained at least 80 rushing yards, but did not fumble. The Giants
have lost five games in a row, their longest losing streak in almost a decade,
and haven't scored more than 13 points since Week 9.
32) Arizona Cardinals [32] -- The Josh McCown era has begun in Arizona,
but offense isn't Arizona's biggest problem. They haven't held an opponent
below 28 points in more than a month.
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