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NFL - The NFL Offseason Desert

By Brad Oremland
Tuesday, February 17th, 2004
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Five Quick Hits

* It has become increasingly obvious that there is a media conspiracy to ruin Tom Brady. Stay strong, Tom.

* Washington is pursuing Mark Brunell. They should have done this years ago. Now, though, I'm not so sure it's a good idea to cut ties with Patrick Ramsey.

* Drew Henson may live up to the hype down the line, but some team is going to overpay for him this offseason.

* I think the All-Loser Team would beat the Patriots.

* The Yankees aren't a lock for the World Series yet, but I think it's time someone told George Steinbrenner we were joking when we said, "Why doesn't he just buy all the good players?"

We're in the offseason now, but there's a lot to discuss in the NFL: the Pro Bowl, the Kurt Warner situation, Maurice Clarett, coaching changes, free agency, and the draft.

That's too much for one little column, but let's start with the Pro Bowl. I didn't watch. Apparently Simeon Rice got sent home, Marc Bulger had a good game, and no one played defense. Or, they played defense, but only going for big plays like interceptions. Sound tackling, that sort of thing, seems like it wasn't exactly the soup of the day.

Mentioning Bulger brings up the Warner thing, though. Evidently, Warner made a speech during which he suggested that his faith played a part in his benching. Longtime readers will know that Mike Martz is usually the last person I would defend, but this is a special exception.

Bulger is 18-3 as the Rams' starter and was named Pro Bowl MVP last week. And Martz is thinking of benching the kid? Warner thinks Bulger hasn't earned his starting position? The St. Louis trainer must be passing out some bad mushrooms. But even if Bulger were chopped liver, he'd be a step ahead of Warner. Let's examine Kurt's performances since his miserable Super Bowl against New England two years ago.

Since then, Warner is a stunning 0-8 for the Rams (they're 19-5 without him during the same span), with four TD passes and 12 interceptions. Oh, and 14 fumbles. In only one of those eight games did Warner throw more touchdowns than interceptions: Week 12 of the 2002 season, Rams at Washington (2 TD, 1 INT).

St. Louis is deep in Washington territory at the end of the game, about to get the score that will ice the contest. Warner -- the man who has never in his career thrown a ball away -- gets sacked by LaVar Arrington. Fumbles. Washington recovers. Rams lose. And this is Warner's best game since the Super Bowl. Any coach who wouldn't bench him for playing like that doesn't deserve a job.

In light of his recent statements, though, we should all at least consider the possibility that he was not benched because his play has stunk like a year-old banana. It may be that Warner was benched because, as his recent comments clearly reveal, he is totally insane.

The Clarett Situation

This decision, assuming it stands, could conceivably destroy both college football and the NFL as we know them. It probably won't, but it could.

It's already happened in basketball, but there is a crucial difference. I believe -- and it seems like most other fans and analysts do, too -- that young kids won't be able to succeed in the NFL.

Clarett's a talented young man. He showed that in 2002 with Ohio State. But he's not a sure thing, like Earl Campbell (1977 Heisman Trophy winner, first overall pick), Barry Sanders (1988 Heisman Trophy winner, third overall pick), or Marshall Faulk (1993 Heisman runner-up, second overall pick).

Clarett had one nice season in college, and a team could be tempted to take a chance on him based on that one nice season. But he might not be chosen because of his history of injuries. Or because of his legal and academic problems. Some teams might even pass on Clarett to punish him for challenging -- and apparently beating -- a rule that almost everyone associated with the league seems to agree is a good idea.

RBs have the shortest average careers of any position in the NFL; they take such a beating that injuries put a premature end to many promising careers. Drafting a running back who has already suffered a major injury is always a risk. That hurts Clarett's stock. A 21-year-old probably isn't physically mature enough to be the featured RB in an NFL offense anyway, but when the guy's never made it through a healthy season in college, that's a really big question mark.

Character issues are a big deal again after New England -- the NFL's ultimate "character" team right now -- won the Super Bowl. And Clarett is clearly not a "character" guy. He had academic problems at Ohio State. He still has some legal problems to work out. He's immature. New England, after declining to pick up Antowain Smith's option last week, actually needs a running back. Anyone out there think Bill Belichik will even consider Clarett? I'd put the chances the Patriots draft Clarett at about 0%.

Another of Clarett's hurdles is one he thinks he's just overcome: getting into the draft fewer than three years after his high school class graduated. Most football players in the BCS conferences get red-shirted their first year. They aren't ready for college football, much less the NFL. Now, after one year of college football during which he couldn't stay injury-free, Clarett thinks he's ready for the NFL. A lot of coaches, GMs, and owners are going to disagree. And some of them are also very angry that he's broken a league policy that protected the NFL and NCAA from kids jumping into the NFL too soon.

Some kids will just ruin their careers, figuring they have another option if they don't like going to classes and then finding out they aren't ready to make a pro roster. NFL teams can't afford to keep dead weight and let it develop, like NBA teams can. What's happened in basketball is that kids come to the NBA before they've built any name recognition or school loyalty, and the league has a harder time marketing its product. College basketball suffers because its best players never stick around for more than two years. Everyone loses, except the agents and (sometimes) the players themselves.

In that sense, Clarett will succeed. He will be drafted, and he will get a nice signing bonus – we all know he likes money. But he won't be a first-round pick – if I had to guess now I'd say third – and he won't start as a rookie and I doubt he'll ever so much as make a Pro Bowl. I have no affection for Maurice Clarett, little sympathy for his cause, and I wish him no success in the NFL.

Preseason Predictions

I've been saying for weeks now that I would re-visit these, but they take up a lot of space and I think they're kind of boring at this stage of things. If you really want them, let me know, and I'll e-mail them to you with some post-regular season thoughts.

The Offseason Wasteland

Football season has only been over for two weeks (one, if you count the Pro Bowl). There's a lot of interesting stuff related to the league going on right now. But evidently, I'm going through serious withdrawal.

On Sunday, I updated my personal All-Time NFL Team, a complete 53-man roster. I also designated 45 of those players for my hypothetical active roster. And I chose a head coach and offensive and defensive coordinators.

That would have been bad enough, but then I did it again -- a second squad. There were so many great players who I just didn't have room for on the first squad (Dan Marino, Steve Largent, Jack Lambert) that I simply had to make a second. Complete with a 45-man active roster and eight others. And coaches, again.

I made four levels of all-time teams -- 212 players and 12 coaches -- before I finally stopped. Actually, I'm still putting the finishing touches on the fourth team, because, really, sorting out Dick Butkus and Joe Schmidt and Ray Nitschke is much easier than picking out the minute difference between, say, Claude Humphrey, L.C. Greenwood, and Ed Sprinkle.

I will be doing this sort of thing for the next six months.

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