Sports Central | Articles and Columns

« June 2012 | Main | August 2012 »

July 31, 2012

Pro Football Hall of Fame Biggest Snubs

This is an updated version of a piece I wrote in 2007. Many of the players I wrote about then have been elected to Canton, some new players have become eligible, and some things I've changed my mind about. Let's jump right in, going position-by-position.

Quarterback

Quarterbacks make up 4.5% of the 22 players on the field. Of the 195 Modern-Era players in the Hall of Fame, 23 of them are QBs — 11.8%. Quarterback is a uniquely important position, so it makes sense that quarterbacks should make up more than 4.5% of the Hall, maybe double that, 9%. To me, 12% seems excessive — I think all the deserving ones are already in, along with a few we probably could have left out. I don't believe there are any Hall-eligible QBs who should be inducted. If there is one, it's probably Ken Anderson. A darling of stat geeks, Anderson led the NFL in passing yards twice and in passer rating four times. He made four Pro Bowls, won the NFL MVP Award in 1981, and led the Bengals to Super Bowl XVI.

The other guy I might support is Randall Cunningham. Often, Hall of Fame disagreements arise around players who passed the eye test or compiled great statistics, but not both. Cunningham did both. He made jaw-dropping plays, posted superb statistics in his best seasons, was all-pro four times, and finished with career stats comparable to those of contemporary HOF QBs like Jim Kelly and Troy Aikman. All this even though he never played with great receivers until he was 35. I don't mind that he's not enshrined, but I'm surprised he hasn't been a stronger candidate.

There are plenty of other very good quarterbacks not in Canton, including Cecil Isbell, Frankie Albert, Tobin Rote, John Brodie, John Hadl, Daryle Lamonica, Ken Stabler, and Boomer Esiason. They were all fine players, even great players, but I think there are better eligible at other positions.

Running Back

Running backs are even more over-represented than QBs, but there are more bad choices than at quarterback — both those voted in and those left out. I've written at great length about why Herschel Walker should be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I'm also disappointed that the voters seem to have turned their backs on Terrell Davis, who for about three years was the best running back in football. Davis did not have a long career, but he is the only player in history to rush for 2,000 yards and score 20 TDs in the same season, and he was perhaps the greatest postseason RB in NFL history.

I'll take someone like Terrell Davis or Larry Brown, who excelled in a short career, over someone who stuck around forever but was never really the best. The one other RB I'd really like to see enshrined, though it will never happen, is Tiki Barber. He's one of only 11 players to rush for 1,500 yards three times, and only O.J. Simpson had more 200-yard rushing games. Barber was effective running inside and outside, a fine receiver, and a good returner. He retired with 10,000 rushing yards, 5,000 receiving yards, and six 1,000-yard performances, including probably the best season ever by a 30-year-old running back.

There are a handful of other RBs I potentially could be talked in supporting. Single-wing tailback Spec Sanders dominated the AAFC; the Rams' Deacon Dan Towler was a devastating force from 1951-53; Chuck Foreman was a critical factor in three Super Bowl appearances by the Vikings; Ottis Anderson threatened defenses with little help from his teammates; Roger Craig gave the 49ers options no other team had; Ricky Watters was an accomplished receiver who was overlooked because (1) some of his finest accomplishments weren't rushes, (2) he was overshadowed by Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith, and (3) a lot of people didn't like him. I also suspect that Corey Dillon might be a Hall of Famer if he hadn't been stuck on the Bengals when they were routinely the worst team in the league.

Any of those guys could get in and it wouldn't bother me, but after Walker, Davis, and Barber, I don't know that I'd consider any of them snubs, per se. I guess Watters might be the next-strongest candidate, in the same vein as someone like Tony Dorsett or Curtis Martin.

Fullback

Contemporary fullbacks, the ones whose primary job is lead blocking for a ball-carrier, go back about 25 years. None of them are in the Hall of Fame, and none has ever been seriously considered as a candidate. Those who are full-time players are comparable to offensive linemen and tight ends, and Daryl Johnston, at least, should be a cinch for Canton. Ask Emmitt Smith and the Cowboys' opponents in the early '90s if Moose Johnston was a game-changer. Paul Zimmerman wrote that it was "Johnston [who] changed the nature of the position."

Wide Receiver

It is notoriously difficult for even exceptional wideouts to receive recognition from the voters. I wrote an exhaustive series this winter on WR Hall of Fame snubs, so here's the short version. The strongest candidates, as I see them, are Tim Brown, Cris Carter, and Billy Howton, followed by Henry Ellard, Harold Jackson, Billy Wilson, and Jim Benton.

The "Best Wide Receivers Not in the Hall of Fame" series also covers players like Jimmy Smith, Andre Reed and Sterling Sharpe, Cliff Branch and Harold Carmichael, Otis Taylor, and Mac Speedie.

Tight End

The position of tight end effectively came into being in the early 1960s, about 50 years ago. The position's dominance seems to have gone in cycles, rotating roughly by decade. The first generation of great tight ends, in the 1960s, included Hall of Famers Mike Ditka, John Mackey, and Jackie Smith, as well as fellow standouts like Ron Kramer, Pete Retzlaff, and Jerry Smith.

The '80s featured the first receiving specialists, guys like Ozzie Newsome and Kellen Winslow: threats in the passing game but without the same blocking acumen as their predecessors. Of course, there were still good blockers who could catch. Todd Christensen only had six years as an impact player, and I guess he hasn't been inducted because of his short career and modest overall stats, but he was a well-rounded TE, and a difference-maker on some pretty good teams.

Mark Bavaro, like Christensen, had a short but brilliant prime. In his best seasons, he was an explosive receiver, punishing runner after the catch, and one of the finest blocking tight ends in the NFL. He probably was the best offensive player on the Super Bowl champion 1986 Giants. Bavaro's career numbers are even less impressive than Christensen's, but tight end is not exclusively a receiving position, and Bavaro in his prime was a force.

Offensive Line

The voters have done a pretty good job recently of voting in deserving linemen, with eight offensive linemen inducted in the last seven classes. But some surprising omissions remain. There tends to be more disagreement at the non-stat positions about who the best players were, but the top candidates, some of whom are in the Seniors pool, should include Mark Stepnoski (center, Cowboys), Jeff Van Note (center, Falcons), Ox Emerson (guard, Lions), Bucko Kilroy (guard, Eagles), Bob Kuechenberg (guard, Dolphins), Riley Matheson (guard, Rams), Duane Putnam (guard, Rams), Winston Hill (tackle, Jets), Mike Kenn (tackle, Falcons), Marvin Powell (tackle, Jets), and Al Wistert (tackle, Eagles).

My top choices, though, would be Mick Tingelhoff (center, Vikings), Jerry Kramer (guard, Packers), Will Shields (guard, Chiefs), Joe Jacoby (tackle, Washington), and Jim Tyrer (tackle, Chiefs). Tingelhoff started 240 consecutive games and made seven straight all-pro teams. Kramer is a Packer legend, a three-time all-pro even before he threw the famous pivotal block in the Ice Bowl. Shields just became eligible and should get elected without too much trouble in the next year or two. Jacoby was the king of the Hogs, a full-time starter on four Super Bowl teams and the most famous member of the most famous line in history. Tyrer's on-field qualifications are without question; he's not in Canton for off-field reasons. I've written a lot this year about Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, and I wonder if CTE didn't play a role in Tyrer's murder-suicide.

Defensive Line

Defensive linemen fare better at selectors' meetings than their other defensive teammates, with six players elected in the last five years: Fred Dean, Bruce Smith, John Randle, Richard Dent, Chris Doleman, and Cortez Kennedy. A dynamic pass rush is the easiest way for a defensive lineman to make an impact, but there's a lot more to the position, especially for interior linemen, who in most schemes are expected first and foremost to stop the run and occupy blockers.

Most of the compelling HOF snubs come from that interior defensive line. The most glaring omission from the interior defensive line is Curley Culp, who effectively created the position of 3-4 nose tackle. Les Bingaman made three all-pro teams and won two championships with the Lions. Rosey Grier played in five NFL Championship Games with the Giants and went on to become part of the Rams' Fearsome Foursome. Gene "Big Daddy" Lipscomb and Alex Karras have both been snubbed by the voters for off-field reasons. Lipscomb died from a heroin overdose, while Karras was a loose cannon, an actor and pro wrestler who made impolitic public statements and was suspended for a year for gambling. Tom Sestak was perhaps the greatest defensive lineman in AFL history. Joe Klecko excelled as both a tackle and an end, unofficially credited with 20.5 sacks the year before they became an official statistic. More recently, Bryant Young was a great defensive lineman who had the audacity not to be a sack specialist.

A number of defensive ends have been HOF finalists or semi-finalists recently, but with four of their peers elected so recently, those still on the outside may face an uphill battle. The most successful candidates have been L.C. Greenwood, a six-time Pro Bowler for the Steel Curtain; Charles Haley, the only five-time Super Bowl winner in NFL history; and Claude Humphrey, who made six Pro Bowls with Atlanta in the 1970s but failed as a Seniors nominee in 2009. I'm more supportive of Humphrey than of Greenwood, the sixth-best defensive player on his own team, or Haley, a fine player, but whose biggest claim to fame was being on the right teams at the right times.

He has generated little support in the past, probably because his career was so short, but Rich "Tombstone" Jackson might be the best player at any position not to have a bust in Canton. In fact, Steve Sabol (the President of NFL Films) has said exactly that. Paul Zimmerman (Sports Illustrated's Dr. Z) called Tombstone "one of, if not the best DE I've seen" and named Jackson to his All-Century Team. Al Davis called Jackson "the best player [the Broncos] ever had". Those are authoritative sources, titans of NFL history, guys who have watched a ton of football and know what great defensive linemen look like.

Linebacker

When I wrote the original version of this piece five years ago, there were only five outside linebackers in the Hall of Fame, just 3% of all Modern-Era players. Since then, the voters have enshrined Andre Tippett, Derrick Thomas, Rickey Jackson, and Chris Hanburger. That's a step in the right direction, though once again the glory goes to the pass-rush specialists; Tippett, Thomas, and Jackson did little else.

A list of great outside linebackers excluded from Canton includes — in alphabetical order — Maxie Baughan, a nine-time Pro Bowl selection; Robert Brazile, a Defensive Rookie of the Year, seven-time Pro Bowler, and All-Decade selection in the '70s; Joe Fortunato, who retired as the all-time leading linebacker in fumble recoveries; Kevin Greene, who officially ranks third all-time in sacks; Chuck Howley, a Super Bowl MVP and five-time all-pro; Isiah Robertson, who did a lot more than get run over by Earl Campbell; Dave Robinson, who won three NFL Championships with the Packers; and Andy Russell, who went to seven Pro Bowls with the Steel Curtain. I like Brazile, Fortunato, Greene, and Howley, but you can make an argument that all of those guys should be in.

Among inside linebackers, the leading candidate still on the outside is Randy Gradishar, who anchored the "Orange Crush" defense in the late '70s and early '80s. The other ILB who has attracted more and more regard since his retirement, and untimely death from cancer, is Sam Mills. A star in the short-lived USFL (he was named to all three All-USFL teams), Mills went on to become a star with the Saints (four Pro Bowls) and the Panthers (first-team all-pro in 1996). His height (5' 9") scared teams away, but his on-field performance and locker room leadership made him one of the greatest defensive players ever.

Other eligible linebackers, inside and outside, include Clay Matthews, Karl Mecklenburg, and Seniors candidates Tom Jackson and Tommy Nobis. To me, they're all borderline candidates the Hall can do without, but none would be a disgrace to Canton. Wilber Marshall wasn't even nominated last year.

Defensive Back

From 2001-06, no defensive backs were elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Since then, the voters have chosen seven DBs in six years, including three Seniors candidates: Emmitt Thomas, Dick LeBeau, and Jack Butler. Thomas and LeBeau, sadly, are among the weakest players enshrined in Canton, though I still support LeBeau because of his massive contributions as a defensive coach. Darrell Green, Rod Woodson, and Deion Sanders were all shoo-ins, easy first-ballot selections, so in the last five years, the only real ground the Hall has made up came via the induction of Jack Butler.

There are still a lot of deserving candidates out there, especially strong safeties. The most glaring omission is Kenny Easley, maybe the greatest ever at his position before injuries and severe kidney disease forced his retirement after only seven seasons. An Ed Reed-type player, Easley was a hard-hitting strong safety who went after passes like a ball-hawking free safety. Former Packers GM Ron Wolf is among those who consider Easley "the best safety I've ever seen."

Other strong safeties worthy of serious consideration include 1973 Defensive Player of the Year Dick Anderson; eight-time Pro Bowler Steve Atwater; Joey Browner, who went to six Pro Bowls; LeRoy Butler, the best strong safety of the 1990s; Steeler legend Donnie Shell; Billy Thompson, whom rival Al Davis called "as good a strong safety as anyone who's ever played the game"; and Darren Woodson, the standout defender on a team that won three Super Bowls.

Among free safeties, the most compelling names are probably one-eyed Bobby Dillon, hard-hitting Cliff Harris, and Kansas City Chiefs Deron Cherry and Johnny Robinson, who combined for 107 INTs. At cornerback, the most celebrated snubs are mostly from the 1970s and '80s: Raiders CB Lester Hayes, the 1980 Defensive Player of the Year who made five Pro Bowls; former Bengals Lemar Parrish and Ken Riley; another Chief, 16-year vet Albert Lewis; and 2012 Hall of Fame Finalist Aeneas Williams, a dominant corner with the Cardinals in the '90s and a successful safety with the Rams in the 2000s. Pre-merger CBs Jim David, a three-time champion with the Lions, and Abe Woodson, a return ace who made five Pro Bowls, also merit consideration, though I believe there are stronger Seniors candidates at other positions.

It's a stunning group of snubs, worthy players and borderline cases who could get in without diminishing the Hall. My personal top 10, in alphabetical order: Dick Anderson, LeRoy Butler, Bobby Dillon, Kenny Easley, Cliff Harris, Lester Hayes, Albert Lewis, Lemar Parrish, Billy Thompson, Aeneas Williams. Unfortunately, most of those guys are in the Seniors pool now, and the voters have shown no interest in Butler or Lewis, so Aeneas Williams is the only one with a decent chance to get in.

Special Teams

Special teams contributions used to play a huge role in Hall of Fame voting, when candidates were viewed as whole players. George Blanda was a successful quarterback with the Oilers, but he's in the Hall of Fame as much for his kicking as his passes. Lou Groza was a good offensive lineman, but he was nicknamed "The Toe". Jack Christiansen only played eight seasons, but he was as fine a punt returner as the game had ever seen; his teammate Yale Lary was an exceptional punter. Neither would be in Canton without his special teams contributions. The same applies to Gale Sayers, and Paul Hornung, and half a dozen other players.

It appears, however, that contemporary selectors have made a conscious decision to ignore special teams. Herschel Walker is among the NFL's all-time top 10 in all-purpose yardage, but his kick returning hasn't earned him so much as a Semi-finalist's spot in the voting. Tim Brown has a great case for induction just on his career receiving numbers, but he was also a standout punt returner. You'd think that would put him over the edge, but to this point it doesn't seem to have helped. Lemar Parrish scored 5 kick return TDs; he's never even been a Finalist. The list goes on.

This also applies to pure specialists. I understand the argument: they're only in for a handful of plays each game. But those are high-impact plays. Every field goal attempt is plus or minus three points. Every kickoff or punt return is a big play waiting to happen. A punt that gets blocked, or returned for a touchdown, or pins an opponent inside the 10-yard line, is a huge play, with many times the impact of your average 3rd-and-5.

The cinch choice for best eligible kicker not in the Hall of Fame is Gary Anderson. A four-time Pro Bowler, Anderson scored 100 points in a season 14 times, including 164 in 1998, the fifth-highest total in history, and until last season the highest ever by a pure kicker. Anderson's 2,434 career points rank 2nd all-time. He's 2nd all-time in field goals made, and 3rd in extra points made, with an XP% over 99%. On the ballot for two years, Anderson has never advanced beyond the first stage of voting. I really thought Anderson would break special teams' streak of sorrow with the voters, but they've proved me wrong in a big way. There was even a time I believed Anderson might get in on the first ballot.

Among punters, the big names are Tommy Davis and Ray Guy. Davis led the NFL at various times in field goals (1960), punting average (1962), and extra points (1965). His career punting average (44.7) is still among the best in history, 4th-highest among retired players. Guy has been criticized for kicking too many touchbacks, and his career average (42.4) is not exceptional, but he got a ton of hang time, and is widely regarded as the greatest punter in history. If the Seniors committee ever selects Davis, I will probably die of shock.

The other special teamers of potential interest are mostly returners: Brian Mitchell, who is 2nd all-time in all-purpose yardage; Mel Gray, the greatest return man in NFL history; and 1970s-80s difference-makers Billy "White Shoes" Johnson and Rick Upchurch. The other name is coverage ace Steve Tasker, a 7-time Pro Bowler and 2012 Hall of Fame Semi-Finalist. It will be interesting to see how the voters treat all-time leading scorer Morten Andersen, who becomes eligible next year. He'd go in on the first ballot if I were voting, but at this point I'd bet he falls short.

Head Coaches

Don Coryell and Bill Parcells. Those are the names attracting attention, both semifinalists in 2012, with Parcells advancing as a Finalist.

Coryell is the winningest coach in Cardinal history, though he is best remembered as the mastermind behind the Charger offenses of the early 1980s. From 1979-82, San Diego led the NFL in passing offense every season, a unique accomplishment. Coryell is a Hall of Fame candidate less for his 100 wins and success with two different teams than for his strategic influence on the modern passing game. He also worked with HOFer Sid Gillman when both coached in San Diego in the 1960s, and his most famous pupil was three-time Super Bowl champion Joe Gibbs, who asked Coryell to present him for Hall of Fame induction.

Parcells won two Super Bowls, and reached conference championship games with three different teams. His success rebuilding down-and-out franchises is impressive, but I wonder if the Tuna wouldn't have helped his cause more by sticking around and developing another champion than by switching teams every three or four years. That itch to move on probably hurt his legacy in the long run.

No other long-time head coaches are serious candidates for Canton, but arguments could be made for two-time Super Bowl winners Tom Flores and George Seifert. Two interesting candidates became eligible last year: Bill Cowher and Marty Schottenheimer. Cowher, who coached the team that won Super Bowl XL, has a much better shot at induction than Schottenheimer, but Marty had many more wins (200-149) and did more to shape the game — including giving Cowher his first NFL coaching job.

Assistant Coaches

Along with GMs, one of the two most overlooked categories for Hall of Famers. NFL history boasts several assistant coaches who never did much as HC, but who as assistants made vital contributions to championship teams, and ultimately shaped the game of football as we know it.

Clark Shaughnessy only spent two seasons as an NFL head coach — which is why the HOF voters ignore him — but as an assistant to George Halas, he helped frame the modern T-Formation (the NFL's dominant offensive set for 40 years), then ran the Bears' defense for a decade, tutoring defensive assistant and future Hall of Fame coach George Allen. Okay, his NFL coaching record was 14-7-3, but he was one of the most important men in the history of the game, probably did more to influence 1940s and early post-war football than anyone but Paul Brown.

The other particularly big name among successful assistant coaches is Buddy Ryan. The architect of the famous 46 defense, Ryan also left behind a coaching tree among the best in the game today: Jeff Fisher, Leslie Frazier, Ron Rivera, Rex Ryan, and Jim Schwartz. The voters have shown no interest in enshrining coaches with limited success as HCs, but Ryan was arguably the most important individual on the team that won Super Bowl XX and the most dominant defense of all time.

In 2010, the PFHOF inducted Dick LeBeau, a cornerback for the Bears, head coach of the Bengals, and defensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers. LeBeau was a disaster as HC (12-33), but he was a very good cornerback (62 INT) and a brilliant defensive coordinator, overseeing four top-ranked defenses and creating the zone blitz, the most significant defensive innovation in decades. LeBeau technically went to Canton as a DB, but with a significant wink at his coaching accomplishments.

Two other players with borderline Hall of Fame careers made coaching contributions which arguably should put them over the edge. Lou Rymkus was an all-pro tackle who played in the league championship game every season of his career, winning five titles with the Browns. In 1960, he served as head coach of the first championship team in the history of the American Football League, the Houston Oilers.

Richie Petitbon made four Pro Bowls as a safety with the Bears, including the inimitable 1963 championship season, when Petitbon intercepted eight passes, for 161 yards and a touchdown. In his last four seasons, Petitbon served as one of George Allen's defensive captains, first with the Rams and then in Washington. He retired with 48 INTs, returned for 801 yards and 3 TDs. Thirty years later, he is still one of only 26 players with over 800 INT return yards. He later served as the defensive coordinator for Joe Gibbs — a Don Coryell disciple with little interest in running the defense — and won three Super Bowls. Petitbon was hired to replace Gibbs in 1993, but the team went 4-12 and Petitbon was fired.

Rymkus and Petitbon went a combined 15-19-1 as head coaches. But Rymkus won a championship, and Petitbon collected three rings as the key defensive mind for the Joe Gibbs Dynasty that won three Super Bowls. Both were great players, probably not quite Hall of Famers, whose accomplishments on the sidelines should earn them consideration for Canton.

General Managers

Really, it is stunning how little regard the voters have for the men who shape great teams. Plenty of coaches coast to the playoffs, or even to championships, with talented rosters. But who assembles those teams? Guys like Bobby Beathard, Ron Wolf, and George Young.

Beathard was a scout for the Kansas City Chiefs when they played in Super Bowl I. He was Director of Player Personnel for the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins. He was General Manager for Washington in the 1980s, bringing in players like Darrell Green, Russ Grimm, and Art Monk. As GM in San Diego, he drafted Junior Seau and helped the Chargers reach their first Super Bowl in team history. As much as I respect players like Tim Brown and Mark Bavaro and Lemar Parrish, did they contribute nearly as much to the game as someone like Beathard, who helped build championship teams for four different franchises?

Wolf is no less accomplished. He was a personnel man for the Raiders in the '60s, '70s, and '80s — the team's dynasty era. During Wolf's tenure, the Raiders had as many Super Bowls as losing seasons. He is best known, however, as the architect of the 1990s Green Bay Packers. As GM in Green Bay, Wolf hired Mike Holmgren, traded for Brett Favre, signed Reggie White, and drafted Darren Sharper.

Five-time NFL Executive of the Year George Young served as a personnel man and assistant coach for the Baltimore Colts from 1968-74, years in which the Colts won two NFL championships. In the late '70s, he was Director of Personnel and Pro Scouting for the Dolphins. But Young is most celebrated for his 19 seasons with the New York Giants, when the team brought in gifted players and coaches like Phil Simms, Lawrence Taylor, Bill Parcells, Michael Strahan, and Tiki Barber.

Beathard, Wolf, and Young are probably the most accomplished GMs snubbed by the Hall, responsible as much as anyone for some of the game's greatest dynasties. Some league observers have suggested that "contributors" — as distinguished from coaches and players — should be selected to the Hall through a separate process, and that's fine with me. I don't have a problem with GMs and league officials competing with players for a spot in Canton, but I don't have a problem if they go through a separate door, either. I do care, though, that they get the recognition they deserve, and right now that's not happening.

Contributors

For those of you who skipped the GM entry, I understand why some fans want to see people like Steve Sabol and Paul Tagliabue go into the Hall of Fame through a different process than players, so that the two groups aren't competing for votes. Most of the nominees in this category are people who have been around the game for a long time, but never really contributed anything uniquely positive to the sport. It amazes me that so many writers want to enshrine the guy who signed the checks (owner) but not the one who chose the players and coaches (GM).

Sabol and Tagliabue, however, should get in. Sabol and his father, Ed (HOF Class of 2011), were the architects of NFL Films. For five decades, it's been an extraordinary organization, giving fans film access no other sports league can offer. You're probably familiar with the argument that football is uniquely suited to television, that no other sport has taken advantage of TV the way pro football has. The Sabols have been a tremendous part of that, and Steve is just as deserving as his father. Ed started the business, and I'm glad he's in, but Steve has been running the show for a long time now.

League commissioners tend to inspire mixed feelings among fans, but Paul Tagliabue did a lot for the NFL. Under his leadership, any question about the most popular sports league in North America disappeared. If football was edging ahead when Tags took over, it was solidly in first when he stepped down. He oversaw the birth of free agency, well-managed expansion, the 2002 realignment, instant replay, and more, but one of his greatest accomplishments was labor peace. During an era which saw cancellation of the World Series and the Stanley Cup, football never disappeared. For Tagliabue to maintain labor peace even with so many changes around the league was an extraordinary accomplishment.

The All-Snub Team

Having acknowledged that some positions may actually have too many members in the Canton, here is my All-Snub Team, listing the best eligible player not in the Hall of Fame at every position.

First Team

QB Ken Anderson
RB Herschel Walker
FB Daryl Johnston
WR Billy Howton
WR Cris Carter
TE Todd Christensen
C Mick Tingelhoff
G Will Shields
G Jerry Kramer
OT Jim Tyrer
OT Joe Jacoby

DT Curley Culp
DT Gene Lipscomb
DE Rich Jackson
DE Claude Humphrey
OLB Chuck Howley
OLB Kevin Greene
ILB Randy Gradishar
CB Aeneas Williams
CB Lester Hayes
FS Cliff Harris
SS Kenny Easley

K Gary Anderson
P Tommy Davis
KR Mel Gray
ST Steve Tasker

HC Don Coryell
Asst Clark Shaughnessy
GM Bobby Beathard
Contrib Paul Tagliabue

Posted by Brad Oremland at 7:52 PM | Comments (7)

July 30, 2012

Mike Trout, a Legend in the Making

Since Mike Trout burst onto the scene one month into the 2012 Major League Baseball season, he has given every baseball fan the chance to see greatness day in and day out. The Los Angeles Angels were floundering in April. Their prize star, Albert Pujols, was mired in one of his worst slumps of his career, the bullpen was awful, and they found themselves in the cellar of the American League West. Enter rookie outfielder Mike Trout. Immediately his hustle, intensity, and love for playing the game started to become contagious in the Angels dugout.

In just 79 games this season, Trout has a .350 batting average, 16 home runs, 49 runs batted in, 75 runs scored, 20 doubles, 5 triples, 31 walks, and 31 stolen bases. Trout also has an on base percentage of .407 and slugging percentage of .594. Oh, and by the way, can play some mean defense, as well. As a rookie, his 75 runs and 31 stolen bases leads all of baseball, while his .350 batting average trails only Andrew McCutcheon and Melky Cabrera.

The Angels put Trout in the leadoff spot on April 28th and he has exceeded all expectations, which were very high to begin with. Subsequently, the Angels have gone from last with a 6-14 record to 55-46 record and just 4 games behind division leading Texas Rangers. Trout has given the entire team the spark they needed and is a shoe in for American League rookie of the year, but also is making a strong run at the AL Most Valuable Player.

Mike Trout is putting up some incredible numbers in just his first season in the big leagues. And remember, he missed the first month. So how do his numbers compare to some of the best five-tool players of all-time? The numbers might surprise you. Most lists of top five-tool players of all-time include the likes of Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds, and Hank Aaron. A comparison of the numbers of Trout's rookie season to the aforementioned rookie seasons give credence to Mike Trout could be the best of all-time.

If we were to project Mike Trouts stats over a full season, he would end up with a .350 avg, 224 hits, 32 home runs, 40 doubles, 10 triples, 98 runs batted in, 150 runs scored, 62 walks, and 62 stolen bases. Amongst the players mentioned in their rookie seasons, Trout's runs scored, hits, and stolen bases rank him number one all-time. Trout's 40 doubles ranks second only to Alex Rodriguez, while his 10 triples puts him third behind Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth. His 32 home runs is once again second to Alex Rodriguez, who had 36.

To further illustrate Mike Trout's dominance, Babe Ruth had 101 walks, while Mickey Mantle totaled 75, ranking Trout third on that list with 62. Mike Trout's 98 runs batted in ranks him fourth in that category behind Ty Cobb, Alex Rodriguez, and Babe Ruth. Keep in mind Trout as a leadoff hitter does not see as many opportunities. The .350 batting average is tied with Ty Cobb for second all-time, trailing only Alex Rodriguez and his stout .358 average.

It is worth mentioning that Alex Rodriguez's 1995 rookie season he only played in 48 games. The statistics being compared are from the 1996 season. The statistics for Babe Ruth are from his 1919 season in which he played in 130 games. In 1915, the Babe played in 42 games followed by 67, 52, and 95 the next three seasons that followed. For Ty Cobb, the 1907 season was used for comparison since 1905 and 1906 he only played in 41 and 98 games, respectively. This further makes the case for Trout in his initial campaign as the best of all-time.

Barring any injuries or a rapid decline at some point during his career, Mike Trout will most certainly have the numbers to make the argument of the best of all-time and certainly will be mentioned amongst the best. One thing for sure is that he will continue for this season to amaze and thrill us with his bat, glove, and speed. So for now let us sit back and watch as a legend is born in Los Angeles and someday we will all remember the summer of 2012 when Mike Trout began his run at history.

Posted by Greg Suttich at 12:58 PM | Comments (1)

Secrets of the 2012 NFL Season (Pt. 2)

Also see: Secrets of the 2012 NFL Season (Pt. 1)

* The Redskins offense sputters as rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III struggles to learn the nuances of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's playbook. Griffin is forced to scramble often, and the Washington offense finishes last in total offense in the league. Hence, the "III Yards and a Cloud of Dust" offense is born.

The 'Skins finish 5-11, last in the NFC East.

* Ben Roethlisberger throws for 4,254 yards and 30 touchdowns while enjoying an injury-free year. The Steelers finish 11-5 and capture the AFC North title over the 10-6 Ravens.

Roethlisberger also finds success in his foray into the home fixtures market after his retro "Emergency Exit" signs for upscale bathrooms appear in Home and Garden magazine.

* Jonathan Vilma, in an effort to patch his rocky relationship with Roger Goodell, invites the commissioner for a late-summer swim at Vilma's New Orleans' residence. Vilma's Olympic-size "Bounty Pool" features 12-feet depths, a 10-meter platform, and no water. Goodell politely declines, replying to Vilma in what has become a common refrain to the suspended Saints linebacker: "maybe next year."

This time, Vilma graciously accepts Goodell's decision, and spends much of his free time in his pool-side Jacuzzi, remaining in "hot water."

* Rams' second-round pick Janoris Jenkins, who failed two drug tests and fathered four children while in college, celebrates his contract, which contains a sizable signing bonus, by tweeting "I'm Due!" on Twitter. Days later, two of his female acquaintances tweet the same message.

Jenkins proves his worth to the Rams, earning a staring cornerback spot and leading St. Louis with six interceptions, two of which are returned for touchdowns.

* Miami's unsettled quarterback situation is a nightmare for head coach Joe Philbin, but a blessing for Chad Johnson, who finally has someone other than himself to blame for his lack of production.

Johnson records only 18 catches for 147 yards and 1 touchdown, but finds comfort in the fact that his entire season can be summarized in a single tweet, with room to spare.

In January, Johnson changes his surname to "Mismo Viejo-Mismo Viejo," which loosely translates to "Same Old, Same Old."

* The Lions enjoy a much-needed respite from a shaky 2-2 start with a bye week in Week 5. Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz, for the first time in 2012, mentions "a rest" with a gleam in his eye. The well-rested Lions go 9-3 over their final 12 games, matching the Packers for the NFC North's best record.

In the playoffs, the Lions' version of "The Drive" becomes legendary, when, after Detroit downs the Cowboys at Ford Field in the divisional round, Cliff Avril gets hammered and drives 14 miles home on icy roads, finagling his way through a police checkpoint at one point.

* Minnesota wide receiver Jerome Simpson makes a grand entrance after serving his three-game suspension, arriving for the Viking's flight to Detroit in week 4 in a FedEx delivery truck.

Simpson scores a touchdown against the Lions, but his season is cut short when he is arrested in late October on drug trafficking charges. Simpson again makes news when he "flips," this time when he turns states evidence and testifies against his Canadian supplier.

The Vikes complete a dismal year with a 4-12 record.

* British filmmaker and unlikely Jets fan Christopher Nolan directs a short film on the remarkable life of Antonio Cromartie called "Conception," starring Cromartie and his 12 children.

Cromartie later inks a deal to endorse BOSS brand men's belts, and stars in an ad campaign made memorable by the tag line "When you need to keep your pants on."

* In the Broncos' Week 5 contest at New England, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady duel to a near standstill, throwing for a combined 824 yards in Denver's 41-38 overtime victory.

However, defense rules in the rematch, in Denver in the AFC Championship Game, in which the Broncos stifle the Patriots 20-12 in a blizzard. The outcome turns on a controversial play in the fourth quarter, when Denver backup linebacker Wesley Woodyard sacks Brady, forcing a fumble. After a lengthy review, referee Walt Coleman rules that the "Tuck Rule" does not apply, and is a stupid rule in the first place. The Broncos take possession and score the clinching touchdown.

* Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff politely declines an invitation from the Tosh.0 show for a web redemption to make another attempt at his missed 32-yarder from last year's AFC Championship game. Cundiff, however, offers up a teammate, and Tosh.0 airs its first "Ladarius Webb redemption."

Webb's 11 interceptions lead the AFC, earning him a spot on the All Pro team. Cundiff pulls a short field goal in the Ravens' wild card round playoff loss to the Jets, and is forced to leave town in a moving truck bearing the license plated "Y'D LEFT."

* After struggling with his throwing mechanics early in the season, Tim Tebow is benched for the Jets October 21st game at New England. In response, the Boston Globe posts a controversial, doctored photo of Tebow smooching with a provocatively-dressed nun, accompanied by the headline "Bad Habit!"

The Globe later issues an apology, which Tebow accepts.

* Andrew Luck and the Colts race to a 4-0 start to the season, but quickly find trouble when the regular season begins on September 9th. Indy loses its first six regular season games while Luck struggles. The rookie quarterback, frustrated and unable to find a rhythm, pulls a "Vince Young" and briefly disappears, leading to the headline "Luck Runs Out" in the Indianapolis Star.

A phone call from Peyton Manning brings Luck back, and the Colts win six of their remaining 10 games to finish 6-10 in the AFC South.

Manning, for his part, finally receives a proper "thank you" from Colts owner Jim Irsay.

* Michael Vick's autobiography, "Finally Free," lives up to its title when it hits the bargain bin at book retailers in early October, just one month after its release.

Vick and the Eagles finish 9-7, tied for second in the NFC East, to make the playoffs. However, their season ends abruptly in the wild card round, as Vick is injured early in Philly's eventual 27-16 loss to the 49ers.

On his flight back home, Vick runs into actress Joan Collins and KISS lead singer Paul Stanley in the Philadelphia airport, where Vick engages in a legitimate discussion of "Dynasty."

* Detroit's Calvin Johnson amasses 112 receptions for 1,789 yards and 20 touchdowns, and easily wins the NFL's Most Valuable Player award. Johnson later becomes the first player to appear on the cover of two consecutive versions of the Madden NFL video game, and finishes a magical season by being voted "Dos Equis Second-Most Interesting Man in the World" contest.

* Troy Polamalu, who admitted he has lied about the number of concussions he's suffered, drops another bombshell when he declares that at least three have been as a result of locker room horseplay with James Harrison.

The Polamalu concussion controversy becomes such that Head and Shoulders is forced to release a statement insisting that their product does not, in fact, make one more susceptible to concussions.

* Mark Sanchez drops the ceremonial first puck in the New Jersey Devils home opener against Boston on October 13th . For the honor, Sanchez dons a No. 15 Devils jersey adorned with the name "Tebow" on the back. The jersey, the first to feature the name "Tebow" and the sign of a "devil," earns the nickname "Neutral Ice" and quickly becomes a top-seller in the Devils pro shop.

The Jets earn a wild card berth, finishing second to the Patriots in the AFC East, and lose to Denver in the divisional round.

* Trent Richardson plows his way to 12 touchdowns for Cleveland, quickly endearing himself to the Browns faithful, who dub him the "Dawg Pounder."

Richardson rushes for 1,256 yards and wins the AFC's Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:20 AM | Comments (0)

July 27, 2012

Foul Territory: Stature of Limitations

* Par at Least One of the Final Four Holes, or Els!, or Great Scott! A Damn Choke, or He's Out in the Open — Ernie Els won the British Open on Sunday, charging to the front on the back nine while 54-hole leader, Australia's Adam Scott, bogeyed the final four holes. Scott's collapse will be written about for years to come, because sports writers, unlike some golfers, no what to do with a good lead.

* It's Like a Weight's Been Lifted, or Stature of Limitations, or False Idol — Penn State removed a statue of Joe Paterno outside Beaver Stadium on Saturday. The 7-foot, 900-pound bronze statue will be stored in an unnamed secure location. The removal was done quickly and without fanfare, so most people didn't even know it was going on.

* Ryan's Hope — Carolina Panthers' center Ryan Kalil bought a full-page add in the Charlotte Observer on Wednesday, predicting the team would win the Super Bowl. It reminded many fans of the last time a full-page ad was devoted to the Panthers, when it was a "Wanted" poster.

* Monarchy in the UK — Bradley Wiggins became the first Brit to capture the Tour De France, winning the grueling 2,100 mile race, and will now set his sights on winning Olympic gold. Wearing the winner's jersey, with a potential gold medal ahead, as well as a number of urine tests, you could say Wiggins' future is "bright yellow."

* Kenny Britt Spells Trouble, But Can He Spell "Trouble?" — Tennessee Titans' wide receiver Kenny Britt was arrested on Friday in Fort Campbell, Kentucky on a DWI charge. Because of numerous legal troubles, Britt will likely face suspension under the NFL's personal conduct policy, assuming he can safely and legally make it to a meeting with Roger Goodell.

* This Puts the "Packing" in "Packing Heat," or Dumb and Dumber — The Detroit Lions cut cornerback Aaron Berry on Monday, two days after he was arrested for simple assault, his second arrest of the offseason. He was arrested early Saturday after pointing a gun at three people in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Berry may have put himself out of work, but two people who remain very much employed are his lawyer and his agent.

* AL Far East Movement- — The Yankees acquired Ichiro Suzuki from the Mariners on Monday for pitching prospects D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar. Ichiro, a 10-time all-star and two-time American League batting champ, will add depth to the Yankees outfield. For the free-spending Yankees, it seems that when the team has an itch, they scratch that "Ichiro."

* Bump and Run Coverage, or Momma, Don't Let Your Baby Grow Up to Beat a Cowboy (Mother) — Dez Bryant's mother said she doesn't want to press assault charges against her son, who slapped her with a baseball cap and ripped her clothing while grabbing her. Now, it would appear that Angela Bryant has as much a reputation for "drops" as her son.

* Mickey Rourke Must Have "Let Himself" Go" — Actor Mickey Rourke claims he beat Usain Bolt in an impromptu, late night after a night of drinking. Rourke claims he edged Bolt by a few inches in a 30-meter sprint, albeit aided by a head start. Bolt good-naturedly said the result would be different in a full 100-meter sprint, in which Rourke's time would likely be "9½ Weeks."

* He's Down With HBP — Alex Rodriguez's left hand was broken when he was hit by a pitch by Seattle's Felix Hernandez in the Yankees 4-2 loss to the Mariners on Tuesday. Interestingly enough, the acronym For "He Got Hurt" is "HGH."

* Grecian Formality, or Her Jumps Are Measured, But Not Her Words, or Hop, Skip, and a Dump- — Greek triple jumper Voula Papachristou was kicked out of the Olympics after she posted a racist joke on Twitter. Much like the Greek economy, Papachristou is headed south.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:18 AM | Comments (0)

July 26, 2012

NFL Should Adopt NCAA-Type Disciplines

As a lover of sports history, I practically live in a world of "what ifs." For example, what if Mickey Mantle had stayed healthy for the whole 1961 season? What if Ryan Leaf had 10 more seconds in the 1998 Rose Bowl? What if the Penn State leadership had followed up on the Jerry Sandusky allegations a decade ago?

And what if the NFL decided to adopt discipline guidelines like the NCAA has for dealing with scandalous situations? In light of the recent NCAA sanctions handed down to Penn State stemming from the Sandusky scandal, it is worth a look at what the NFL might be able to do in similar situations with similar punishments.

Of course, the most prevalent NFL scandals currently involve the New Orleans Saints. Not to pick on them, but let us use them as an example of how things could be different if the NFL had a discipline program for wayward teams like the NCAA does. We all know about the ongoing bounty case and the allegations of wire-tapping in the Superdome by general manager Mickey Loomis, which hasn't had much attention in a month or so. But the bounty case is fresh in everyone's mind because of ongoing litigation.

We also all know that several Saints players and coaches have received varying degrees of suspensions based on their involvement in the scandal. Head coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma received the brunt of the blow with season-long suspensions. Three other players and two coaches will serve time away from the field for differing numbers of games.

While many applaud these suspensions, are they really enough to deter other players or their organizations from clandestinely implementing similar programs? Heck, Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker James Harrison has been outspoken about his desire to bash opponents in the head regardless of how many fines or suspensions he receives. Sounds like the helmet-to-helmet rule is really effective, doesn't it?

Generally, suspensions and fines only hit players and coaches in the pocketbook, which have too much padding anyway due to inflated salaries. Sure, they hate the time away from the game and maybe it affects them physically a minute amount, but these types of disciplines aren't hard-hitting enough to make a lasting impact. If a player has invested his millions wisely, missing a year wouldn't hurt him that bad financially. I'm sure most of them live off the interest in their bank accounts anyway.

So, what the NFL should do it adopt a policy where a team gets penalized in two areas where it would really count — the postseason and the draft.

What if the NFL's discipline for the Saints included a two-year ban from the playoffs? That would be the equivalent of a college team getting banned from bowl games for a couple years. How would that affect a team? Could you imagine if the Saints went 12-4 this year, but had to sit out the postseason? What would make Jonathan Vilma more upset: missing a season or playing a season with no reward at the end? The latter would be devastating.

Of course, the naysayers would argue that a team would only play half-hearted all year, coaches would give more time to second and third string players and maybe games would even be thrown to keep a team from having a successful season. But then the NFL could have a version of the NCAA's "death penalty" where if a team couldn't prove that it put forth its best effort to play competitively, then it would have its franchise suspended for a season, or the post-season ban would be lengthened. I'm sure the legality of that could easily be challenged, but it's a thought.

The other hard-hitting discipline the NCAA has is scholarship reductions. Obviously, the NFL doesn't hand out scholarships, but what if the league translated that to draft picks? To go along with the two-year playoff ban, maybe the Saints would also lose their first and second round draft picks for those two years. Then Sean Payton and front office would be forced to try and keep a winner on the field using veterans and the free-agent market. While that may not be such a difficult task to accomplish, what veteran or young hopeful would want to go to a franchise that couldn't play in the postseason? That, too, would be devastating.

I'll admit that the NFL tries its best to curtail unsportsmanlike and downright vicious play by on-the-field legislation. But until it makes rules at the top that put fear into GMs and coaches around the league, nothing will change.

Posted by Adam Russell at 6:01 PM | Comments (0)

Ichiro Goes From Worst to First

Nobody saw it coming until it came, as Yogi Berra might say: Ichiro Suzuki dealt to the New York Yankees for a pair of minor league question marks. And all the iconic Seattle Mariners outfielder had to do was pack his bags, say goodbye politely, then walk from clubhouse to clubhouse, since the Yankees had just arrived to start a series with the Mariners. Then, all he had to do to seal the deal was exactly what he did when, batting eighth in the Yankee lineup, he faced his former team as a hitter for the first time.

First, he acknowledged the appreciative cheers of the Safeco Field crowd — cheers which must have been six parts saying goodbye to a long-loved player, half a dozen parts gratitude that he chose to move rather than logjam the Mariners' has-to-happen rebuilding — with a few gracious, but unexaggerated bows.

Then, he lined a base hit right back up the pipe and wasted no time stealing second base without much of a fight. He even came thisclose to throwing out a Mariner trying to score, his hard throw missing by a foot.

If only he could have factored directly in the Yankees' 4-1 win, that would have been cherries and cream atop the sundae. The Yankees were in the hole 1-0 until the fourth, thanks to a pair of Seattle double plays quashing potential rallies, but they pushed through with Alex Rodriguez's double (he missed an opposite-field homer by inches), a walk, an RBI double (Mark Teixiera), and a pair of RBI singles (Raul Ibanez, Andruw Jones). While the Mariners couldn't push a run across the plate with a bulldozer, the Yankees added their fourth run in the top of the eight when A-Rod opened by hitting one over the center field fence.

According to just about every report that flooded cyberspace and the printed press in the hours to follow, Ichiro approached the Mariners somewhere around the All-Star Break asking to be traded. Ichiro himself hinted he spent much of the break thinking seriously about whatever future he has left in the show. He did so knowing the Mariners were in desperate need of rebuilding. Knowing they probably couldn't afford to offer him his final major league contract. Knowing, too, that if there was one underlying reason why he'd been less than content in the Mariners' clubhouse, for the past few years, it was that winning seemed very alien to the team for whom he once featured in a stupefying 116-win 2001.

When he stood before a bank of microphones to say his official goodbye, Ichiro left little doubt. "I am going," he said as the trade was announced, "from a team with the most losses to a team with the most wins. It's hard to contain my excitement for that reason."

That was a very rare offering to the public of his emotions away from the field. For 12 seasons, Ichiro has played the game as passionately as anyone who ever took the field or checked in at the plate, but otherwise he's rarely if ever allowed anyone to see through or into him. Like Sandy Koufax four decades earlier, Ichiro (very few ever find it in them to refer to him by his family name) has made a public living while keeping his integrity and his life off the field tucked into a discreet wrap.

Saying goodbye to the Mariners as the trade was announced was probably typical of the closest he could come in letting his feelings flow through his voice. He even had to fight tears once or twice.

"When I think about this long period, it is hard for me to concisely express my feelings. When I think about the last 11 and a half years, about the times and feelings of the last 11 and a half years, and when I imagined taking off the Mariner uniform, I was overcome with sadness. It has made this a very difficult decision to make.

"When I spent time during the All-Star Break to think, I realized that this team has many players in the early 20s. And I began to think, I should not be on this team next year, when I thought about the future of the team. And I also started to think about the desire to be an an atmosphere that I could have a different kind of stimulation than I have now. If that were the case, it would be the best decision for both parties involved, that I would leave the team as soon as possible. I have made this decision."

He hadn't been the hitting machine of old for over a season and a half. But he still had some life in his legs and his throwing arm, and he still knew how to cover outfield ground. It turns out that he made a few concessions before the Yankees agreed to make the deal: he agreed to hit toward the bottom of the lineup (he batted eighth Monday night); he'll move to left field when Nick Swisher, the Yankees' regular right fielder, returns from the disabled list; he'll even sit now and then against left-handed pitching, something once unthinkable.

"He was asked to make a lot of sacrifices," Yankee general manager Brian Cashman disclosed. "And he agreed to every one of them."

He'd never have said it in public himself until he agreed to the trade, but Ichiro gave Yankee scouts the impression that, as much as he loved playing in Seattle, he'd been bored long enough with the team's ineptitude otherwise. Words like "playing down to his surroundings" made those scouts' rounds. So did the thoughts that Ichiro's athleticism and defense weren't quite so diminished.

"He's a fit under the circumstances we're in," Cashman told reporters, in light of Brett Gardner going down for the season and Ibanez and Jones more aged than Ichiro happens to be. "Worst-case scenario, I've improved my outfield situation. Best-case scenario is a tremendous upside. We might be getting a superstar."

Interesting phrasing, that. Yankee-haters might take it to mean one thing. Objective observers might take it to mean something else. Something that might mean the Yankees pulling off the theft of the year. A superstar who gets himself back to or near enough to that level for one more period. Watching age catch up to Ichiro (it's sometimes easy to forget he had a full, sterling career in Japan before he came to Seattle and opened the gates for other Japanese position players in the Show) wasn't pretty. Watching him find a way to transcend his age — even if not quite at the level that's already assured his Hall of Fame plaque — could be fun.

The cheers for Ichiro, as he checked in at the plate for the first time as a Yankee, might have had more than one meaning, after all. A lot of Mariner fans thought he should have been dealt sooner considering his fade; a few ("ICHI-ROD Don't Sell Out!" went one placard in the stands) hoped he'd remain a Mariner for life. Sell out to what? His contract expires at season's end. There's no guarantee the Yankees will offer him one last contract at comparable money. And the terms of the contract about to expire include the Mariners paying him about $25 million after he retires, through 2032, money deferred at a 5.5 percent interest rate, while he collected about $18 million a year in salary including for 2012.

The Yankees are no strangers to bringing in stars, superstars, and even Hall of Famers in waiting when they're near the end of the line. They've gotten results ranging from the unexpected (Darryl Strawberry, 24 home runs in 1998, though he missed the postseason thanks to cancer surgery) and the impressive (Lee Smith, who got into eight games and converted all three of his save opportunities in 1993) to the mundane (Goose Gossage, whom they brought back for stretch help in 1989, but picked up one save in 11 appearances before moving further on; Kevin Brown, whom they picked up in a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers after the 2003 season — he had a respectable season's record, but was injured at one point punching a wall in frustration, then got murdered to open Game 7 of the 2004 American League Championship Series) and mediocre. (Ivan Rodriguez, a certain Hall of Famer whom they picked up at the 2008 non-waiver trade deadline, but who hit a mere .219 the rest of the way and looked almost finished as the Yankees missed the postseason.)

They could get unexpected shining results at the plate from Ichiro to match his still-expected prowess in the outfield and, when he reaches base, on the bases. Or, they could be watching him finish his fade in earnest. The one thing they probably won't lack for seeing is the fun he still brings to the game when he plays, no matter what.

And it was always fun to watch Ichiro Suzuki play baseball. Hell, it was fun watching him stretch every inning as he took his position in right field, never mind poking a base hit or three and stealing an average of forty bases a year at his best. Even on his occasional worst days before time and the Yankees caught up to him.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:19 PM | Comments (2)

July 25, 2012

Three and a Punt: Preseason Thoughts

SEC Media Days have come and gone, meaning that it is officially college football season. And as opening weekend inches nearer, it's time to take a quick look at some early thoughts as we head into another season, something that I call "Three and a Punt."

First: Penn State Disaster

The NCAA's hammering of Penn State was expected. And, for once, the NCAA lived up to expectations. While many disagree with the decision to place sanctions on the program and others felt that the death penalty should've made an appearance, the NCAA needed to send a strong message to its member institutions. Penn State was the ultimate example of what "lack of institutional control" really means. The program was running the school and thus, the school had to become the guinea pig.

As for the punishments? The fine, bowl bans and scholarship cuts were justifiable in sending a clear message. Most likely, I would have replaced the vacated wins with a two-year ban from televised games, yet I understand the NCAA's reasoning for vacating the wins. They too want to put this nightmare out of sight and mind as best as they can. My biggest change would've been to start the penalties one year from now in 2013. The current players, who had nothing to do with all of the horror that happened in State College, are getting punished for this. By delaying the sanctions for a year, they have a chance to either transfer or graduate with a chance at titles that, if they won, would be giant accomplishments through adversity.

No matter, I wish the victims as much peace in their lives as possible. The monster is locked up for good. Let's hope healing starts to take place soon.

Second: The NCAA and Pandora's Box

Mark Emmert felt he needed to take action. Now.

But now that he has moved swiftly and levied the punishments he did on Penn State, he has set forth a new precedent for the NCAA concerning rules violators. While the circumstances surrounding PSU were no doubt unique, what will Emmert do to the next program that violates NCAA rules? For example, if the Yahoo! report concerning Nevin Shapiro's actions with the Miami program holds water, how will the NCAA respond?

The NCAA made a swift and again, justifiable move on Penn State. However, the sports world was watching. If the NCAA sings a different tune for the next program, they will be portrayed as weak as they've ever been.

Third: East vs. West

Now that we've gone through Ohio State and Penn State, will the Big Ten kindly and finally change the division titles from "Legends" and "Leaders?"

When the names were first announced, people howled at just how pompous the conference was in deciding on such names for their divisions. Now, after the last two incidents, these names are downright embarrassing. And, while no conference can seriously hold moral superiority, the Big 12, SEC, and Pac-12 at least didn't throw arrogance into the mix when splitting into divisions.

East and West. Jim Delaney, the time to do this is now. Show some humility. Please.

Punt: Some Early Bets in the 2012 Season

* Washington State will be one of the nation's 10 best scoring offenses. They weren't bad last year, but with Jeff Tuel healthy and Mike Leach guiding the ship, watch out. The Cougars will pull off one major upset this year.

* The over/under for West Virginia/Oklahoma State will be around 100. And I'd still take the over. And if it went into overtime, it might beat the combined point total of the West Virginia/Oklahoma State hoops matchups.

* The Boise State drama will end on the first week. Michigan State, on their home turf, will send sighs of relief through the major BCS conferences.

* While the first week is usually a weekend of beatdowns, two games pop up as immediate upset alerts: Northern Illinois at Iowa and Texas A&M vs. Louisiana Tech (in Shreveport, LA).

* The most underrated, yet potentially good matchup of the opening weekend? Tennessee and NC State in the Georgia Dome. Derek Dooley gets a healthy Tyler Bray back as he fights for his coaching life against a pretty good Wolfpack club.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:23 PM | Comments (0)

July 24, 2012

Five Hall of Fame Candidates

There are a lot of great players missing from the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Some of them will be inducted in the next few years, a few will have longer waits, and many will never be enshrined, memorialized instead in the memories of fans. My next column, one week from now, will highlight deserving and borderline players who have been left out. That piece is already written, but about half the article was taken up by explanations and arguments concerning a quintet of great players: Randall Cunningham, Terrell Davis, Todd Christensen, Rich Jackson, and Kenny Easley.

Those are not the five best players missing from Canton. In fact, one of them I don't think really belongs in the Hall of Fame. But none have gotten their due, and rather than doubling the size of the other piece, I wanted to explain why I believe these players deserve more consideration than they've gotten.

Randall Cunningham

Often, Hall of Fame disagreements arise around players who passed the eye test or compiled great statistics, but not both. Cunningham did both. He was a joy to watch, a unique talent who paved the way for a generation of QBs making plays with their feet as well as their arms. He inspired a Sports Illustrated cover: "The Ultimate Weapon," they called him, and "The Quarterback for the '90s." He might have been that, if he'd stayed healthy. No one who saw Cunningham play doubted his skills.

Unfortunately, we never got to see what Cunningham, in his prime, might have done with an elite receiver. The Eagles' leading receivers, when Cunningham was the regular quarterback, were Mike Quick, Keith Jackson, Keith Byars, and Fred Barnett. That's a running back (Byars), a tight end (Jackson), an undistinguished journeyman (Barnett), and a good receiver who was basically done after Cunningham's rookie season (Quick).

The stats were limited by his poor receiving corps, but in 1988, he ranked 2nd in the NFL in net yardage (Dan Marino), and including his 6 rushing TDs, tied for 2nd in TD/INT differential (Boomer Esiason). Two years later, he passed for 3,466 yards and rushed for 942 (with an 8.0 average), scoring a combined 35 touchdowns against just 13 interceptions. Once again, he was 2nd in net yardage (Warren Moon), this time leading the NFL in TD/INT differential. When Cunningham finally got to play with top-notch talent, he led the NFL in passer rating (106.0) as a 35-year-old, helping the 1998 Vikings set a single-season scoring record. Cunningham's career statistics don't hold up to the likes of Dan Marino and John Elway, but they're very much in line with the weaker Hall of Fame QBs. Including rushing:

Simms and Warner aren't in the Hall, but the comparison is still interesting, and a very reasonable argument could be made that Cunningham has the best numbers in the whole group. Even without the rushing, he had more touchdowns (207) and fewer interceptions than Troy Aikman, actually more than three times as many TD/INT (+73 vs. +24). Cunningham was all-pro three times — as many as the other four combined — including a first-team Associated Press selection in 1998. You'd expect a sensational QB who was incredible to watch and posted good statistics in the absence of even an average receiving corps to attract more attention from the voters. I don't mind that he's not enshrined, but I'm surprised he hasn't been a stronger candidate.

Terrell Davis

For about three years, Terrell Davis was the best running back in football. He did not have a long career, but he had three 1,500-yard rushing seasons, and is the only player in history to rush for 2,000 yards and score 20 TDs in the same season. I know the PFHOF voters frown on Davis' short career (1,655 att), and people got the idea, after Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson were successful in the same system, that any running back could put up big numbers in Denver. But neither of those players did what Davis did, and the lack of interest from voters is especially surprising because Davis was perhaps the greatest postseason RB in NFL history.

In his eight postseason games, the Broncos went 7-1, and Davis averaged 5.4 yards per carry, with 142.5 yards and 1.5 TDs per game. Those are obscene numbers, projecting to 2,280 yards and 24 TDs in a 16-game season. This against playoff defenses. Davis rushed for 100 yards seven times in the postseason, tied with Emmitt Smith for the record. But Smith made more than twice as many postseason appearances (17) as Terrell (8). Davis won two Super Bowls, and he was the last running back to be named Super Bowl MVP.

In both 1997 and 1998, Davis gained over 2,000 yards from scrimmage. He is one of only five players to top 2,000 YFS twice in the 1990s. The others are Hall of Famers Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, and Thurman Thomas. Contemporary RBs who never topped 2,000 include Corey Dillon, Eddie George, Curtis Martin, Ricky Watters, and Jerome Bettis.

Each of the last two years, Bettis was a Hall of Fame finalist and Terrell Davis was not. Bettis played for 13 seasons, so his career numbers are superior, but look at the two in their primes, their four best seasons:

That's 1995-98 for Davis, while Bettis gets 1993, 1996-97, and 2000. The numbers lean heavily in TD's favor, and that chart doesn't even include the playoffs.

Bettis played forever — started at 21, played until he was almost 34 — and his career stats leave Davis in the dust. I'm not trying to down Bettis here, but these guys were contemporaries, and there was little doubt who was better. In '96, when Bettis was named one of the two all-pro RBs, he got more votes than anyone except ... Terrell Davis. The next year, when Bettis rushed for by far the highest yardage of his career (1,665), Davis out-rushed him in the regular season (1,750), scored more than twice as many touchdowns (15-7), helped knock Bettis and the Steelers out of the playoffs (24-21 in Pittsburgh; Davis had 139 yards and a touchdown), and won Super Bowl MVP. That's not even Davis' best season. I realize Bettis played a lot longer, and that should count for something, but it's preposterous to suggest that he was better than Terrell Davis.

Davis was better in 1995, better in '96, better in '97, and better in '98. Are we supposed to believe Bettis was the superior player, just because he stuck around past his prime and Davis retired early? This is both undeniably crazy and undeniably true: if Davis had played four more seasons, rushed for 700 yards a year, with a 3.5 average, he would have gone into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Four crappy seasons, as a part-time, inefficient RB. To me, four seasons like that would actually diminish TD's career, but I don't think there's any doubt that 11 years and 10,400 yards would have gotten him into Canton. The voters aren't concerned with quality, just longevity. You don't have to be any good, you just have to be out there, adding to the bottom line. In his last four seasons, Jerome Bettis rushed for 700 yards a year, with a 3.5 average. And without those four years, he wouldn't be a Hall of Fame candidate. CRAZY.

When we think about the Hall of Fame, would you rather enshrine someone who had 12 or 13 pretty good seasons, or someone who amazed you for four, who did things we didn't think were possible? Davis stood alone, a player who could do things no one else in the game was capable of. Here's a list of every 1,500-yard rushing season in the 1990s:

Emmitt Smith, 1991, 1992, 1995
Barry Sanders, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997
Barry Foster, 1992
Chris Warren, 1994
Terrell Davis, 1996, 1997, 1998
Jerome Bettis, 1997
Jamal Anderson, 1998
Garrison Hearst, 1998
Edgerrin James, 1999

1,500-yard seasons were not cheap when Davis played. Great players like Thurman Thomas, Ricky Watters, and Marshall Faulk never reached that mark. Other than Sanders and Smith, who are probably among the top 5 RBs in history, Davis is the only player with multiple 1,500-yard seasons in that decade. What if we take that list, then cut off everyone who didn't score 15 touchdowns?

Emmitt Smith, 1992, 1995
Barry Sanders, 1991
Terrell Davis, 1996, 1997, 1998
Jamal Anderson, 1998
Edgerrin James, 1999

The whole decade featured only eight 1500/15 seasons, three of them by Terrell Davis. This guy was special. I also don't buy that his career was too short. Modern Era Hall of Fame RBs with fewer regular-season carries than Davis: Tony Canadeo, Bill Dudley, Frank Gifford, Paul Hornung, John Henry Johnson, Floyd Little, Ollie Matson, George McAfee, Hugh McElhenny, Lenny Moore, Marion Motley, Gale Sayers, Charlie Trippi, Steve Van Buren, Doak Walker.

Those are older players, 12- and 14-game seasons, but their overall workloads don't approach Davis'. Even without considering his postseason contributions, Davis had more than twice as many carries as Dudley (765), McAfee (341), Trippi (687), or Walker (309), and almost twice as many as Gifford (840), Hornung (893), or Motley (828). Davis ranked among the top 10 in rushing yards four times, the same number as Hall of Famers Marcus Allen and Thurman Thomas, and only one time fewer than Earl Campbell, Bettis, and Faulk. He hit the top 10 more often than old-timers like Hornung (2), McAfee (1), and Walker (0).

Let's re-cap a few of the arguments for TD:

* Tied (with Jim Brown and LaDainian Tomlinson) for most seasons of 1,500 yards and 15 TDs
* Only player in history to rush for 2,000 yards and score 20 TDs in the same season
* Tied (with Emmitt Smith) for most 100-yard games in postseason history
* MVP of Super Bowl XXXII

I don't want to throw longevity out the window, because it does matter, but Terrell Davis gave us a very good rookie season (1995), a great follow-up (1996), and two of the finest seasons ever by a running back (1997-98). There are a dozen Hall of Fame RBs who never had a season as good as TD's third-best. It reflects poorly on the HOF selection committee that he's gotten so little support.

Todd Christensen

The 1980s featured the first receiving-specialist tight ends, guys like Ozzie Newsome and Kellen Winslow, threats in the passing game but without the same blocking acumen as their predecessors. Of course, there were still good blockers who could catch, like Todd Christensen. He only had six years as an impact player, but what impact. Receiving leaders, 1982-87:

Christensen ranks 4th in receiving yardage, 3rd in TDs, and 1st (by a mile) in receptions. He was also the best blocker listed, a legit tight end and not just a glorified wide receiver. He led the NFL in receptions twice and had three 1,000-yard seasons, as many as Winslow and more than Newsome. I guess he hasn't been inducted because of his short career and modest overall stats, but the same criticisms largely apply to Winslow.

Tombstone Jackson

He has generated little HOF support in the past, probably because his career was so short, but the Broncos' Rich "Tombstone" Jackson might be the greatest player at any position not to have a bust in Canton. In fact, NFL Films President Steve Sabol has said exactly that (5:00 mark). Paul Zimmerman (Sports Illustrated's Dr. Z) called Tombstone "one of, if not the best DE I've seen" and named Jackson to his All-Century Team. In 2006, Al Davis called Jackson "the best player [the Broncos] ever had". Those are authoritative sources, titans of NFL history, guys who have watched a ton of football and know what great defensive linemen look like.

When Tombstone played, defensive line was a non-stat position. The league didn't record tackles or sacks, and the unofficial numbers that some teams kept are dicey. The stats that do exist certainly don't show Tombstone as a uniquely dominant force — he had double-digit sacks a couple of times, but nothing that really stands out. However, in an era when stats are of limited value, we turn to experts, people who actually watched the games and knew how to interpret them. Often, that means we consult Pro Bowl selections and the Associated Press all-pro votes.

There are two problems with that method, especially for players like Jackson who excelled in short careers. (1) Not all great seasons are created equal. There's a big difference between, say, John Abraham in 2010 and Tombstone Jackson in 1970. The record says both of them were first-team all-pro, but they aren't comparable seasons; Tombstone dominated the league. The argument for Jackson isn't about how many great seasons he had, it's about the degree of his dominance. (2) Many voters are not qualified to judge defensive line play. Analyzing defensive linemen, without the benefit of reliable and easily available statistics, requires patience, dedication, knowledge of the game, and impartiality. Both now and in the past, some voters possess all those qualities, and some of them do not. Their votes can often serve as a general guide, but not a definitive record.

In that context, the opinions of smart people we know possess superior knowledge of the game become incredibly meaningful. In the history of the human race, you would be hard-pressed to find three people whose lives have revolved more around football than Zimmerman, Sabol, and Davis. Do I believe that Rich Jackson was the equal of someone like Reggie White or Deacon Jones? No. Those guys were sensational players in full careers. But I believe Tombstone was as good as or better than recent inductees like Chris Doleman, Richard Dent, and Fred Dean. I believe he was at least the equal of HOF contemporaries like Elvin Bethea and Carl Eller.

Fans and analysts disagree on the importance of longevity, and I know some people will never support Jackson because his career was prematurely ended by injury. If there's a trend that ties together the five players highlighted here, it's their short careers. Cunningham actually played forever, but he was often injured, and most of his later years were as a backup. Terrell Davis effectively played 4½ seasons. Christensen only started for six years, two of them strike-shortened. Tombstone and Easley played seven seasons apiece.

I don't want to downplay the importance of longevity, but I'm not advocating for flukes here. In the 2001 New Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James ranked Oscar Charleston as the 4th-best baseball player in history. In justifying the selection, he wrote:

"It's not like one person saw Oscar Charleston play and said he was the greatest player ever. Lots of people said he was the greatest player they ever saw. John McGraw, who knew something about baseball, reportedly said that ... I don't think I'm a soft touch or easily persuaded; I believe I'm fairly skeptical. I just don't see any reason not to believe that this man was as good as anybody who ever played the game."

With that in mind, this is my feeling on Tombstone Jackson:

It's not like one person saw Rich Jackson play and said he was the greatest defensive end ever. Lots of people said he was the greatest defensive end they ever saw. Paul Zimmerman, who knew something about football, said that. I don't think I'm a soft touch or easily persuaded; I believe I'm fairly skeptical. I just don't see any reason not to believe that this man was one of the very finest who ever played the position.

Kenny Easley

Of the five players profiled in this column, Kenny Easley was the best, the one I feel most strongly about. He played only seven seasons before severe kidney disease forced his retirement, but was maybe the greatest ever at his position. A three-time All-American at UCLA, Easley was the AFC's Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1981, AFC Defensive Player of the Year two seasons later, and NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 1984, when he intercepted 10 passes, returning two of them for touchdowns. Easley was an Ed Reed-type player, a hard-hitting strong safety who went after passes like a ball-hawking free safety. Easley intercepted 32 passes in just 89 career games, an average of 6 per 16 games. Three times he gained over 100 yards on INT returns. Former Packers GM Ron Wolf is among those who consider Easley "the best safety I've ever seen."

No one disputes that Easley was a sensation. In 1981, he won Defensive Rookie of the Year. The next season, he was selected to the Pro Bowl, and several news services named him first-team All-Pro. The next three years, he was a consensus all-pro. In '86, he missed almost half the season with injury, but still earned second-team all-conference honors. For his final season, Easley made his fifth Pro Bowl and was once again all-conference. The man was a standout every year of his career, a truly exceptional player for three of those seasons in particular.

The only argument against Easley is that he didn't play very long. But consider again the argument I made for Terrell Davis. If Easley had stuck around for another 3-5 seasons, as a mediocre journeyman, or even a backup, he'd be in Canton. That wouldn't indicate a better player, though. Seven great seasons and four undistinguished seasons don't express greatness better than seven great seasons and an early retirement. So far, the voters have really missed the ball on Easley. I'm hopeful that they'll reconsider his legacy before he's pushed to the Seniors pool.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:43 PM | Comments (0)

July 23, 2012

The Hottest Team in Baseball

When Major League Baseball announced it would be adding a second wild card team, the move was met with derision from casual and diehard fans. A month before this season, when MLB decided to move up the scheduled change, going to five playoff teams in each league felt like a money grab. Furthermore, the added teams for October threatened to dull the drama associated with the end of the regular season, which was never more thrilling than in 2011.

Now, though, it appears that the additional teams may make the final two months of 2012's regular season just as memorable as 2011.

As of press time, in the American League, while only one division race has a margin of five games or less from first to second, the wild card race has a mind-boggling eight teams within three games of the two playoff spots. Such a logjam means that with the exception of games involving Seattle, Kansas City, and Minnesota, every single AL game currently has playoff implications.

The National League is more spaced out, but about half the league remains in playoff contention. Ahead of next week's trade deadline, a plethora of contending teams means that deals may come fast and furious.

One of the teams that may trade for players to help for the stretch run and stands to benefit from the extra wild card is the Oakland Athletics, who are currently baseball's hottest team, posting a 14-2 record in July to go from having the AL's fourth-worst record to its fourth-best.

The rise of the A's in what could be their first winning season since losing to the Tigers in the 2006 ALCS comes in a season in which the last iteration of the four-team AL West was supposed to be a competition between the high-powered offenses and costly pitching staffs of the Angels and the Rangers. The A's and Mariners were to provide approximately 35-40 games of fodder for Los Angeles and Texas. The Mariners' lackluster lineup has done nothing to change that perception, but the A's are now succeeding in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year thanks to one of the league's best and most underappreciated pitching staffs.

As a team, the A's have a 3.39 ERA, good enough for fourth in the majors. But perhaps the most remarkable aspect of their current run is that opening day starter Brandon McCarthy, as well as other probable starters Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden have been out (with Anderson and Braden not appearing in any action to this point in the season). Rookies Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone were forced to pick up the slack, and have performed to the point where the A's are considering a six-man rotation once everyone is healthy.

Travis Blackley has only been with the team since May after getting waived by the Giants, but his move to the less glamorous side of the Bay Area has seen him do very solid work when called upon to start, with a WHIP of 1.006 in Oakland. The Australian lefty has never thrown nearly as many major league innings as he has in 2012, and was pitching in South Korea at this time last year. Bartolo Colon, who is somehow still pitching at the age of 39 after years of injuries, has been able to eat innings and post an ERA around the league average. Ryan Cook, Oakland's lone all-star, has already proven himself to be one of this year's best young closers. His play may force the A's to trade one-time closer Grant Balfour.

The A's lineup is decidedly more shaky than its pitching staff, with a team on-base percentage and team OPS among the game's worst. Josh Reddick, who general manager Billy Beane picked up in the offseason from Boston for former closer Andrew Bailey, has been the team's best slugger. Bailey has not yet thrown a pitch for the Red Sox after requiring thumb surgery in April. Well-publicized Cuban rookie Yoenis Cespedes, Jonny Gomes, and Seth Smith are the team's other offensive weapons in an otherwise middling lineup that could be improved with trades in the coming days.

But what the team lacks in consistency to get on base and hit for power it makes up for in the dramatic. When the A's defeated the Yankees Sunday with Coco Crisp's single, it marked Oakland's 11th walk-off win of the year, the highest total in the majors. The previous night, Brandon Inge didn't deliver a walk-off, but did homer in the bottom of the eighth to ensure that Parker's 8-inning, 1-run pitching performance was rewarded with a win.

As a fan of an AL West team (Texas), I've had the chance to see Oakland three times this season, including twice in a four-game series just as the A's were starting the brilliant run they are currently on now. In the second of the two games I attended that series, Rangers phenom Yu Darvish was on the hill, with Blackley his counterpart. Despite the fact that Darvish had his best stuff early and ultimately struck out 11, Blackley had superior command and out-pitched the Japanese player. The A's non-flashy lineup then manufactured runs off of 6 total hits, pouncing when the ball began to get away from Darvish.

It's the type of win that Oakland has been making a habit of as it leap frogs higher dollar payrolls in the standings. If the A's keep achieving at this level, they may not even need this year's second Wild Card spot and could reach heights not seen since the "Moneyball" era.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

July 22, 2012

The Straw That Stirs the Stink

Mr. Robert Watkins, a writer for Yahoo! Contributor Network, asks: "Did Reggie Jackson deserve Cooperstown?" He is provoked to the question by a) Jackson's recent comments (in Sports Illustrated) questioning the Hall of Fame credentials of Jim Rice and Gary Carter; and, b) Mr. October's concurrent questioning of Alex Rodriguez's prospective legitimacy for consideration. Not to mention, c) comments he received, after writing about the Yankees' apparent (albeit temporary) banishment of Jackson from the organization.

The comments in question ranged from the ludicrous to the misinformed and back. To quote one Mr. Watkins cited: "Jackson batted .227 over the last five years of his career. We always [hear] of other guys holding on too long but never Reggie. He should have hung it up after [19]82 in my book. That would have given him 464 homers. Hall of Fame — no."

Well, now. We're basing a Hall of Fame election on when a player "should" have hung it up, are we? By that measure, we should say goodbye concurrently to Mickey Mantle. After all, he should have hung it up after 1964, by the numbers to come, right? And wouldn't Mantle have under 500 lifetime bombs if he had? Hit the road, Commerce Comet. Steve Carlton lingered six seasons beyond 1982, which some think was his last serviceable season, by his standards. He would have ended up short of 300 wins if he had. Sayonara, Sphinx.

It gets better, and you begin to feel for Mr. Watkins: "When did a .262 career batting average become a ticket to the Hall of Fame?" Looks like we're going to have to purge the greatest all-around third baseman ever to play the game. After all, Mike Schmidt batted a measly .267 lifetime. Guess the fact that he produced an average of 208 runs per 162 games while playing, arguably, the second-most demanding position on the field, means nothing. Not to mention leading his league in home runs eight times (that's as many as Mays and Hank Aaron combined; or, Mays and Mantle combined) and finishing his career 103.0 wins above a replacement-level player.

It also looks like we'll have to say goodbye to the second-greatest catcher ever to be on the field, too. After all, Johnny Bench only hit .267 lifetime. (Yes, I said second-greatest: Yogi Berra edges Bench by a small margin. I did say small.) How about throwing Carlton Fisk out of Cooperstown? After all, the man only hit .269 lifetime. And I notice a .262 lifetime batting average didn't keep Gary Carter out of Cooperstown, either. Nor should it have done. If there's a reason to beef about Jackson's including Carter in his Hall of Fame critique, that's it. Jackson is nothing if not a man who has asked, at bottom, that you see his entire game. (Look between Mr. October's lines and you see a guy who always strained awkwardly enough toward asking that his overall work be appreciated.) Shouldn't he do likewise to those players about whom he chooses to comment?

Alex Rodriguez, as Allen Barra (now of the Village Voice) points out, has taken something of the high road regarding Jackson's demurral from his Cooperstown prospectus. "But someone ought to point out, so I suppose I will," Barra continues, "that the only accusations made about Rodriguez have been for his years in Texas and that a study of those years proved that his road production was commensurate with his other road seasons and that his apparent boost in power came from playing in the Rangers home stadium — where everyone's power numbers received a boost."

From Mr. Watkins's apparent fan club again: "More strikeouts than hits, his career extra base hit numbers are a joke, and he only lead the league (in) homers once ... and he knocks Jim Rice?" Actually, Jackson led his league in home runs four times to Rice's three. He averaged 27 doubles per 162 games, incidentally. And he didn't spend most of his career in home parks weighted to hitting in general or left-handed hitting in particular. It's worthwhile to ponder what his numbers might have been if Yankee Stadium (always manna to left-handed hitters) had been his home park for more than five years.

Rice's Hall of Fame case is cut considerably by a little home-park stat inflation, and he happens to meet fewer of the Hall of Fame standards (by the Bill James measurement, a pretty good measurement when all is said and done) than Jackson does. As a matter of fact, Rice meets 43 percent of the standards to Jackson's 54; the average Hall of Famer would meet 50.

One more from the fan club, please: "Reggie played most of his career in California, first with Oakland and then with the Angels, if the Yankees had lost the [19]78 World Series where he hit 3 homers he'd be nothing to Yankee fans." This isn't exactly giving Yankee fans too much credit, is it? Yankee fans may have a troubling sense that their team is entitled (entitled, mind you) to reach the postseason year in and year out. But if there's one thing they never forget it's an outstanding World Series performance, no matter the end of it on which the Yankees finish. Three bombs, on three swings, against three single servings, in three consecutive plate appearances, would be remembered even if the Yankees had lost that Series in four straight.

Okay, let's address the first absurdity in the foregoing quote. He played most of his career in California! Oh, the horror! So did Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. So did Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, and Juan Marichal. You may have heard that Jackson won a World Series ring or three while playing in California, too. Three consecutive, to be precise. Mays, McCovey, and Marichal might have won a couple of Series rings themselves if it hadn't been for Koufax (half a pennant by himself, when the 1960s Dodgers were winning pennants) and Drysdale's teams winning three of them. Come to think of it, Marichal might have been winning a few Cy Young Awards, too, if Koufax hadn't been there to beat him out of them — in the era when the Cy Young Award was given to one pitcher across the board, yet.

If Reggie Jackson would have been "nothing" to Yankee fans in a different '78 Series outcome, he still would have been something to Oakland Athletics fans. Oh, that's right. They're California fans. The hell with them.

Halt right there, Kallman. Jackson didn't play in the '72 Series. Yes, I can hear you saying that. Jackson couldn't play in the 1972 Series — he was out with a broken thumb, piled atop a hamstring pull he incurred while scoring on a suicide squeeze, in the clinching League Championship Series against the Detroit Tigers, as noted by Jim Keller, the historian whom Mr. Watkins cites.

Mr. October didn't earn that nickname by being a shrinking violet in postseason play. But you don't have to do as Watkins cites Keller doing and hang his Hall of Fame case strictly on his postseason heroics. If you want to criticize him for scoring 100+ runs only once in his career, you have to look at whether he had great-hitting teams to drive him in when he reached base. Let's look at the pennant winners on which he played:

1972 A's: .240.
1973 A's: .260.
1974 A's: .247.
1977 Yankees (for whom Jackson scored 93 runs): .281.
1978 Yankees: .267.
1981 (strike-shortened) Yankees: .252.

Jackson was a good baserunner, if you rate him by his stolen base percentage of .619. Consider that you weren't paying him to hit early in the order and make a pest of himself on the bases, you were paying him to drive in runs. Given that, I'd have to say that a lifetime average of 89 runs scored per 162 games is an above-average result. He missed 100 runs scored by one in 1973; he scored 90+ runs in seven seasons; he drove in 100+ runs six times. (Did I mention he led his league in runs scored twice?)

And he was a good clutch hitter. Since we think of Jackson mostly as a home run hitter — and we would have thought of him that way even without those three bombs in Game Six of the '78 Series — note that he hit almost half his home runs with men on base. He hit about a third of them with two outs. And, he hit more than half when games were within a run, either way, and a bomb could either tie it, send his team ahead, or buy them some insurance runs.

In the field? Jackson was a slightly below-average right fielder with a below-average throwing arm. He has that much in common with Babe Ruth, incidentally. I haven't noticed any trends toward keeping big, game-breaking hitters out of the Hall of Fame simply because they weren't great defenders.

Mr. Watkins should have known better than to offer this observation, though: "If Bill Mazeroski [sic], Ozzie Smith, and Rick Ferrell belong [in the Hall], then [so does] Reggie." Jackson wasn't the same kind of player as Mazeroski and Smith. They were middle infielders who had a trainload of defence to argue for themselves, against a Hall of Fame culture that underappreciated defence for the most part (Brooks Robinson was the obvious exception) until Mazeroski (2001) and Smith (2002) were inducted. Never mind that the value of run prevention is (and should be) as game-changing a value as run production, even if you value run production (rightly) a little bit higher. (Come on, you don't really think Mazeroski's in the Hall of Fame solely because of his World Series-winning home run, do you?)

Reggie Jackson wasn't a middle infielder. Nor was he a catcher, as Ferrell was. (James has rated him the third-best American League catcher of his era, behind Mickey Cochrane and Bill Dickey.) The values for middle infielders and catchers are different enough from those for corner outfielders.

My unschooled opinion: I think the real knock on Reggie Jackson roots in his strikeout totals and his personality. Yes, he's the all-time strikeout leader among hitters, though Jim Thome may yet pass him if he continues to play, and Thome's going to be standing with a Cooperstown plaque in his arms in due course. Yes, Jackson is nothing if not an outspoken man when he chooses to speak, and was such a man at the peak of his playing career.

There have been a lot worse hitters than Jackson pilling up fat strikeout totals. (Adam Dunn, anyone?) There are a lot bigger mouths than Jackson's in the Hall of Fame. (Rickey Henderson, anyone?) He's far from the only egomaniac (actual or alleged) in the Hall. (Ted Williams and Babe Ruth, anyone?) Take his career objectively, without the swish-outs, without the mouth, and look at the man's entire game. I think Reggie Jackson shakes out as an average Hall of Famer.

This isn't the first time Jackson has put his foot in his mouth when it comes to Cooperstown. A decade ago, as a member of the Veterans Committee, Jackson declined to vote for Marvin Miller's enshrinement, never mind what Miller accomplished for such players as Jackson himself. Said Jackson: the Hall should be for players alone. Would he really wish to purge the Hall of, say, Connie Mack? John McGraw? Casey Stengel? Branch Rickey? Bill Veeck? Doug Harvey? Walter O'Malley? Sparky Anderson?

Ron Santo (posthumously) and Barry Larkin will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend. So will longtime Toronto Sun writer Bob Elliott (J.G. Taylor Spink Award winner to the writers' wing) and longtime broadcaster (and longtime major league catcher) Tim McCarver (Ford Frick Award winner to the broadcasters' wing). Whatever might Jackson think of these, dare we ask?

Jackson certainly cut across the proverbial grain with his Sports Illustrated remarks. When the hoopla exploded he couldn't wait to back away from them, to an extent, saying he shouldn't have called out particular players by name. The Yankees, for their part, seemingly couldn't wait to distance themselves from the original remarks. It must be interesting, in a slightly perverse way, that after all these years Jackson's still the straw that stirs the stink.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 2:43 PM | Comments (2)

July 19, 2012

The Other Nations of the Olympics

With the London Games just around the corner, it's time for countries that normally don't enter the world's consciousness to join the forefront — nations like Jamaica in sprinting, Kenya in marathon, and Mongolia in boxing. But then there are the other countries that neither make an international splash diplomatically nor athletically, but are still represented in the Olympics.

Since the Olympics see fit to include as many nations as possible, they give out wild card entries to nations that do not have any athletes who qualified through competition. This makes the Olympic Opening Ceremonies a truly global event.

Here are a few countries who are not likely to medal, but still will be represented at the 2012 games.

Laos

Laos is one of the poorest nations in Asia and the world, and they have never won an Olympic medal. Nor is that likely to change this year. They will have two competitors, both wild cards, and both in the same event, one of the most anticipated in the Olympics: the 100m sprint.

Their male contestant is the bespectacled Kilakone Siphonexay, whose personal best is 10.73, nearly half a second worse than the slowest time to meritoriously qualify. The female competitor is Lealy Phoukhavont, who is just 16.

They have no proper facilities to train in, so they pump iron my lifting bars where the weights are paint cans filled with concrete. Nor do they have private facilities, so they run, stretch and lift in public parks with their fellow citizens.

Like several nations in the Olympics, a dearth of modern training equipment and venues is not the only problem. The most popular sports in Laos are not Olympic sports. The national sport of Laos is the martial art Muy Lao, and another popular sport is Jianzi, also known as shuttlecock kicking, which is exactly what it sounds like — badminton without the rackets or use of hands. Such sports were included in the 2009 Southeast Asian games held in Vientiane, Laos' capital, where Laos won 110 medals.

Andorra

Another issue facing Olympic also-rans besides poverty — certainly Andorra is not impoverished — is pool size. Andorra is a tiny speck of a country nestled in the Pyrenees Mountains between Spain and France. They speak Catalan, a language also widely spoken in Barcelona, the closest major city. And just about 80,000 people live there.

They are sending a team of six to the Olympics, including swimmer Hocine Haciane, who is actually not half bad — at the 2004 Olympics in Athens, he finished second in his round one heat in the 200m individual medley to move on to the next round. Such sporting acumen earned him flag-bearer status for Andorra in the 2008 Olympics.

What Andorra's athletes prove is that you're never too old to give up on your athletic dreams. Consider Antoni Bernardo, a marathoner who, at 46, is participating in his fourth Olympics. His best finish is 57th at the 2004 Games.

But that's nothing. Trapshooter Joan Tomas Roca is Andorra's representative in the trapshooting competition. His first Olympics? 1976. His age? 61.

So if you have Olympic dreams, learn to trapshoot and move to Andorra.

Guyana

When one thinks of Guyana, one pretty much automatically thinks of one thing — the Jonestown massacre.

But unlike the other countries listed here, Guyana has actually won a medal in 1980, when boxer Michael Parris took home the bronze. He went on to have a decent boxing career of 17 wins, 10 losses, and 2 draws before hanging up his gloves in 1995.

They also have an outside chance at a medal in 2012 thanks to Aliann Pompey in the Women's 400m track event. Pompey won the gold at this event at the 2002 Commonwealth games, a competition featuring countries under the British Crown or with similar ties. She also won bronze in the same event a year later at the Pan American Games.

But those events were 10 and 9 years ago, respectively, surely at 34 her time has come and gone? Not necessarily — she posted her personal best in those categories in 2009, then again in 2010 indoors.

Cook Islands

If you thought Andorra had a small population to pull from, Cook Islands has just 20,000 souls. It's a cluster of islands located between New Zealand and Hawaii, and despite their small population, they are sending a relatively robust 8 competitors to the Olympics in such sports as canoeing, sailing, and weightlifting.

The weightlifter is Luisa Peters, an 18-year-old who is probably stronger than you — her personal best is 156 kilograms, which is about 344 pounds. Who got her into weightlifting? Her grandmother, of course. The article also notes she is a ginger, which should help her in terms of mental toughness — having a soul can only be a burden when trying to lift a gold medal winning amount.

Central African Republic

Central African Republic has a lot going against it. It's one of the poorest nations on earth. It is violent like so many of its neighbors. Its capital, Bangui, was recently rated ahead of only Baghdad among the worst cities to live in according to a study by Mercer Human Resources. It has the most boring country name in Africa.

But they make up for it with the delightfully named Beranger Aymard Bosse, their representative in the Men's 100m sprint. Let's hope they put him in the same heat as Kilakone Siphonexay. If so, it will be the Official 100m Heat of Slant Pattern.

However, CAR is not all about running events like so many African nations ... they also qualified two athletes in the taekwondo. One of those is Patrick Boui, who took part in the African section of taekwondo qualifying. He needed only to make the finals to qualify for the Olympics, but he won the event (although his opponent in the finals withdrew).

The other taekwondo representative is Suelki Kang, who will participate in the Women's 49 kilogram and under event. When I first Googled her, I had to wade through a lot of Koreans named "Suel Ki Kang." Then I discovered she is Korean, but she goes by "Catherine." I don't mean to sound racist, but I think we can all agree there is far too much mixing of Koreans and Central African Republicans. And check it out ... you can "like" her on her Facebook page where she posts. Perhaps she'll respond, and you will get to say you spoke to an Olympian! Better yet, a Korean-Central African Republican Korean! Who goes by Catherine! It'll help if you speak French, though.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:27 PM | Comments (3)

The Greatest Open Champion

The Open Championship is to be held at Royal Lytham and St. Anne's this year for the 11th time. The links course in Lancashire in North West England is one of the most difficult and technically demanding courses anyone can play at. With Tiger Woods, alongside other pros, complaining about the depth and thickness of the "unplayable" rough, it is interesting to note that only one person has won the Open Championship at this toughest of courses more than once.

It is just over a year since the sad and untimely passing of one of golf's most talented sons. And it is over 30 years since he won his first major at the Royal Lytham and St. Anne's at the tender age of 22.

Rather than looking ahead at who might win this year's Open Championship in an extremely wide, open field of players, where upsets and surprises are becoming as common as books in a library, why not take a moment to look back?

Severiano "Seve" Ballesteros won only five majors, in spite of his tremendous ability. Sometimes it was because he was plagued with injuries, other times because he was pipped at the post at the last moment.

When Jack Nicklaus came out of nowhere to win the 1986 Masters, and Seve, having led for most of the day with -9, dropped away after one poor hole, leaving Nicklaus to fight it out with Greg Norman, who, like Ballesteros, threw away a chance at a first major title. Nicklaus was the best on that day, and it was a day for Seve to forget.

If that was one to forget, then one to remember was surely Seve's first major title, at the 1979 Open Championship. It was apparent from the word go that the young Spaniard was almost incapable of keeping the ball within the confines of the course, as he hooked and sliced his way through the first round, going left, right, and anywhere but center. His first round saw him go two over par — not bad considering some of the places he'd ended up.

The second round, however, was clearly drawing from some of that experience, as he carded a terrific 65, –6 under par, and taking his total up to -4, two shots behind leader Hale Irwin, who had won his second major at the U.S. Open just a month before.

On day three, it looked like any good form previously had simply been luck, as he carded +4 for the day to end even par. Luckily, Irwin's day had been just as bad, and remained leader by just two strokes.

Irwin's final day, however, was abysmal as he carded 78 to finish sixth with a (still very respectable) +5. Seve Ballesteros was set to have another poor day as normal service appeared to resume, before sublime play took him to the top of his game.

When he hit a bunker on the 13th, it appeared as though the other contenders were back in with a shout of closing the gap as he looked sure to bogey the hole. Seve, however, had no such doubts as he produced a shot from the bunker that flew 70 yards, and followed it up with a sensational 30-foot putt for birdie, protecting the two shot cushion he had.

On the 16th, as the finish line was in sight, things took a turn for the worse as a poor drive floated into the car park. Attendants began playing Tetris with the cars to allow Seve's approach shot. And what an approach it was.

From about as far right as he could be, he brought the ball back onto the green with what is one of the most magical moments golf has ever seen, before putting away for birdie. Two more holes and a first major championship was his.

It was at the Royal Lytham and St. Anne's that Seve captured the hearts and imagination of the public, and 11 years later, when he took his fifth and final major on the same course, he did it again. Ballesteros was one of the most loved golfers of his generation, and his spark and talent is sorely missed by many.

But it is here at the R&A in cold and rainy Lancashire that his magic was brought before the people and admired. Can anyone fill these enormous, empty shoes left behind? I think not. But can anyone seize a single moment that will inspire golfers of generations to come? We can only hope.

Posted by Angus Saul at 3:33 PM | Comments (0)

July 18, 2012

When Orlando's Good Assets Go Bad

Dwight Howard is a physical specimen, the kind of lean, chiseled living statue that is often described as a brickhouse. And that metaphor is especially appropriate in the post-2008 real estate market. As a basketball talent, Howard is a really nice, well-built house on a giant lot — and his value has never been lower.

For those of you who missed it, the 2008 economic crash marked the end of a wildly profitable era in American real estate. It was so profitable, in fact, that people "bought" spec condos by the half-dozen, only to turn around and sell them in a matter of months. After all, with housing inevitably appreciating as it did, there wasn't a more reliable way to make a buck safely.

But then in 2008, reality found its second wind, and suddenly the mortgages people could not really afford became debt companies would not expect to see repaid. Loans were no longer plentifully available, and rather overnight, the demand that urged real estate prices into a bountiful harvest dried and withered on the vine.

The Orlando Magic have suffered the same market contraction in the valuation of Howard. For 48 minutes a night, Howard is virtually priceless. An All-NBA performer by virtually any measure, one could argue Howard's super-sized skill set is the rarest basket of goods in a league trending toward small ball.

Yet, with the end of his current contract on the table, Orlando has struggled to find any prospective buyers at anything resembling what the center was worth only a few years ago for several reasons.

First, Howard has wantonly sabotaged any effort to move him to a location other than New Jersey/Brooklyn by insisting he would not sign a contract extension in any other place. There was a time pro sports teams barely considered a player's contract when making a trade. Baseball teams in the late 1990s were especially notorious for mortgaging the farm system for a 10-week rental.

Ah, but these are far brainier days of Google machines and wizard tip-calculator phones. With no guarantee at this point that a trade for Howard would ensure anything beyond the coming season, NBA teams have treated negotiations with Orlando like Craigslist best offers. How about $50 bucks for that Tag Heuer Grand Carrera? No? Okay, final offer: $75.

The corollary of this one-team market is that, knowing they are the only credible buyer for Howard, the Nets have little incentive to upgrade their lukewarm trade proposals (that they have few attractive pieces to offer Orlando also may affect this position). The Magic are like a desperate auctioneer, looking around the room and begging for a better bid from anyone else. Even when they find it, they will have to settle for far less than they thought they were going to get.

Furthermore, the season-old CBA is also conspiring to squash the Howard market. Lost amid the Decision fallout, most NBA fans overlooked that LeBron James actually left Cleveland via sign-and-trade, a transaction that netted the Cavs four draft picks. Given how strong Miami has been and likely will continue to be, they're hardly franchise changing pieces, but the handful of picks has some value.

However, the new labor agreement signed a year after the Summer of 2010 forbids that type of maneuver. Under the old rules, teams seeking Howard would have had to offer Orlando something better than whatever the Magic could get in a James-style sign-and-trade. But now, without that opportunity as leverage, the rest of the NBA has a lower implied floor for a Howard trade package. Because Orlando almost certainly has to move the center before the coming season's trade deadline, trade partners can wait until the Magic resign themselves to getting whatever they can scrounge up.

The strangest element of this bizarre saga is how little it has to do with Howard's ability. Sure, there are concerns about his recurring back issues, and the guy hasn't won any character points in how he has handled this transition, but Dwight Howard can be the keystone of a championship team. That population is incredibly small, definitely fewer than the number of teams in the league, and easily in single digits.

Like our beautiful mansion that nobody wants to buy, Howard has undergone only negligible changes since the days when he was worth so much more. Joining so many realtors and homeowners, the Magic and its soon-to-leave all-star are overwhelmed by the three most important words when valuing a property.

Location, location, location.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 5:51 PM | Comments (0)

July 17, 2012

Rockets' Infatuation Could Lead to Heartbreak

If your heart has ever been completely captured by someone, you know the signs: lots of sleepless nights, your mind thinks of little else, and you'll do anything to win their favor.

Maybe Daryl Morey can identify with some of those emotions. The Houston Rockets general manager probably hasn't slept much the past few weeks, and he's pulling as many strings as he can to woo one player's favor: Dwight Howard.

If you want proof, all you have to do is look at the roster moves the Rockets have made recently to put themselves in a position to trade for Howard. Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic, Marcus Camby, Luis Scola, Chase Budinger, and Sam Dalembert, are all gone from the past season's roster. All these moves have given the Rockets the cap room they need to go after a star, whether it's the Lakers' Andrew Bynum or Dwight Howard. They also signed Jeremy Lin to an offer sheet, and it appears the New York Knicks will not attempt to match it, so Lin could be another piece of the Rockets' new puzzle for next season.

While the Rockets would certainly not complain if they ended up with a player like Bynum, it's become apparent they want Howard to be their knight in shining armor, the one who can bring them back to championship contention. According to sources close to the talks, the Rockets have expressed a willingness to take on long-term contracts of several veterans the Magic are trying to unload, including Jason Richardson, Chris Duhon, Hedo Turkoglu, and Quentin Richardson. The Rockets could also send current and/or future Draft picks to Orlando as part of the package.

On the surface, pursuing Howard is a no-brainer. The Rockets would have a bona fide star to build around, and a legitimate shot to get back in the playoffs, something they haven't done over the last three seasons.

A closer look, however, reveals some major concerns the Rockets should pay serious attention to before pulling the trigger. Howard's indecision of whether he wanted to stay in Orlando or be traded last season kept both sides going back and forth like a ping-pong ball. After finally opting to stay put just before the NBA trade deadline, Howard made it clear through comments to the media he couldn't play for Stan Van Gundy, and wanted the head coach removed.

Howard then suffered a back injury in a game against Philadelphia, forcing him to have surgery and miss the rest of the season. Recently, he informed Orlando once again he wanted to be traded, specifically to the Brooklyn Nets. Such a deal appears to be off the table, particularly since the Nets agreed to a four-year contract with center Brook Lopez.

Perhaps the most telling sign that the Rockets should be less than enthusiastic about acquiring Howard, is his reluctance to play for the team, something he has made clear on numerous occasions. If the Rockets are unable to convince him to sign a long-term deal, they would either have to hope they can trade him before next season's deadline, or lose him altogether and be stuck with paying out money to former Magic players' leftover contracts. That money could be used to make other trades or free agent acquisitions. Plus, any young players or future draft choices the Rockets lose to Orlando would be wasted on a hired gun who has no interest in sticking around past next season.

Since Howard is adamant about not wanting to play for the Rockets, what's to stop him from claiming his back is not sufficiently recovered enough, even if doctors clear him to play by the start of next season? While it's hard to dispute Howard's hustle and competitiveness on the court, his spoiled and immature behavior makes such a possibility less far-fetched than you might think.

Failure to pull off a trade for Howard wouldn't be the end of the world. Daryl Morey, however, is willing to gamble his team's future he can charm the unpredictable star into falling in love with the team and the city. Let's hope Morey doesn't end up like the jilted lover who gets his heart broken.

Posted by Stephen Kerr at 4:15 PM | Comments (0)

The 1935 National League MVP

Who was the most valuable player in the National League in 1935?

If you are a student of baseball history, maybe you know the official answer to that question. If you're interested in sabermetrics, there's a good chance you have an answer off the top of your head. If both apply, it's unlikely that you'd name the same person to answer both questions.

But in any case, a number of players had great seasons in the National League that year. Just to set the context, teams averaged 4.71 runs per game, with a league-wide ERA of 4.02 (yes, I know it's a big difference). The eight teams in the league collectively batted .277/.331/.391, so while this wasn't the offensive bonanza many fans associate with the 1930s, it was hardly Deadball. Seventeen players hit .300, and four of them hit over .340. On the other hand, only two players hit more than 25 home runs, and no one hit as many as 35. Only five players had over 100 RBI, and only nine scored 100 runs. Perhaps most surprisingly, that year only one National Leaguer stole more than 20 bases.

What makes the 1935 National League MVP race so interesting? Well, you have Hall of Famers in or near their primes. You have very good non-HOF players having career years. You have great pitchers. And you have a curious MVP choice. Here are some of the players who didn't win the MVP Award.

Dolph Camilli in 1935 had probably the worst full season of his career. He posted a slash line of .261/.336/.440 (in the hitter's paradise of the Baker Bowl), was a subpar first baseman, and struck out more than anyone else in the majors (113), at that time the second-worst total in NL history. So why even mention him? Because Camilli got the same number of MVP votes as Paul Waner. Big Poison hit .321 and walked almost three times as often (61) as he struck out (22). He ranked among the top 10 in the National League in BB, OBP (.392), OPS (.869), triples (12), and runs scored (98). Waner received just one MVP vote, finishing in a tie for 24th with, among others, Camilli.

I don't think anyone would suggest Waner should have won the NL MVP Award in 1935, but this is a Hall of Fame outfielder having a good season, and all he gets is one 10th-place vote? The same as Dolph Camilli? In a just world, Waner probably should have finished in the top 10 or 15. (Camilli, of course, went on to become a very good player. He eventually won the 1941 NL MVP Award, and was an entirely reasonable selection. In '35, he was barely average.)

Also in 1935, Cardinals first baseman Ripper Collins batted .313, scoring 109 runs and driving in 122. He was one of only four players to both score and drive in over 100 runs, with the second-highest combined total (231) in the league. Collins was fifth in the NL in extra-base hits, and gained 306 total bases. He also excelled in less celebrated statistics that we recognize today as important. He walked 65 times, which might not sound like a lot, but in the NL in '35, that tied for sixth in the league. Collins grounded into only 5 double plays all season, in 578 at-bats — less than half as often as the NL average. Collins received 3 points in the NL MVP voting and tied for 21st.

Joining Collins on the short list of players who scored and drove in over 100 runs was New York left fielder Hank Leiber. He had 203 hits, led the Giants in doubles (37), ranked sixth in the league in HR (22), and posted an OPS of .901 (not that anyone was computing OPS then). Leiber gained over 300 total bases, and came in 11th in MVP voting.

Boston's Wally Berger led the NL in HR (34) and RBI (130). He had the second-most XBH (77) and third-most TB (323). Berger batted .295/.355/.548, and might have won the MVP Award after leading the league in two of the three Triple Crown stats, but the Braves lost 115 games that season. He could have driven in 230 runs and they wouldn't have given him the MVP. Though I suppose if he'd driven in 230 the Braves wouldn't have finished last. Anyhow, it says something about the respect for RBI that Berger did show well in the voting, tied for sixth.

The interesting question, I think, is how the Braves would have finished without Berger. Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs rate Berger as about 5.5 Wins Above Replacement, so we can estimate that the team might have fallen to 33-120 (.216), seven games worse than the 1962 New York Mets (40-120, .250). From a certain point of view, Berger might have really been the most valuable player in the league, almost single-handedly keeping Boston from ranking as perhaps the worst team in history. The '35 Braves also had Babe Ruth in his final season. Ruth only played in 28 games, and he batted .181, but he still had power (.431 SLG, 250 ISO) and would still take a walk (.359 OBP).

I've mentioned players who had very good seasons, and several of them received surprisingly little support in the MVP voting, but Berger is the first one I've mentioned who, in many seasons, might have deserved to win the MVP based on his performance. The same applies to Chicago Cubs left fielder Augie Galan, who in '35 led the NL in stolen bases (22) and runs scored (133). He had 203 hits and walked 34 times more than he struck out. Galan had over 300 total bases and set a major league record which still stands, most at-bats (646) without grounding into a double play — 0 GIDP in 646 AB. As an outfielder, he threw out 12 runners, including 4 double plays, and his fielding percentage was above league average.

Unless you totally disrespect leadoff men, that's an MVP-quality season. Two hundred hits, 300 TB, led the league in two major offensive categories, fielded well, set a major league record, and played on a pennant-winning team. Dozens of guys have won the MVP with worse seasons than that. Galan was third on his own team in MVP voting, ninth overall.

One of the teammates he ranked behind was Billy Herman. In addition to superb defense at second base, Herman led the majors in hits (227), doubles (57), and sac hits (24). Talk about an old-school manager's dream: brilliant middle infield defense, great batting average (.341), lots of sacrifices, very low strikeout rate (3.9%). If neither Herman nor Galan was the most valuable player on the Cubs that season, it's no wonder they won 100 games. Herman was fourth in MVP voting.

What a season from Joe Medwick. He finished second in hits (224), runs (132), RBI (126), and slugging (.576), and no player bested him in more than one of those categories. Herman had three more hits, but Medwick had a higher batting average, and Medwick hit with power; he had more than three times as many HR (23) as Herman (7). Galan scored one more run than Medwick, but Galan was a leadoff man, and he only had 79 RBI, nearly 50 fewer than Medwick. Berger drove in four more runs, but Medwick hit 58 points higher, got 50 more hits, and out-slugged the NL home run leader by almost 30 points. Arky Vaughan slugged higher, but Medwick hit more singles, more doubles, more triples, and more home runs than Vaughan. He scored more runs and drove more in.

In addition to H, R, RBI, and SLG, Medwick also finished second in batting average (.353) and doubles (46). He ranked third in triples (13) and fourth in home runs (23). He led the league in XBH (82) and led by a ton in total bases (365), more than 10% ahead of second place (329). He wasn't an error-prone fielder, either. Modern defensive statistics show Medwick as one of the best outfielders in the league. He placed 5th in MVP voting.

Of course, we can't have a discussion about NL MVP snubs without mentioning Mel Ott, widely regarded as the greatest player never to win an MVP Award. In 1935, Ott scored 113 runs and drove in 114. He ranked 2nd in the NL in home runs (31), total bases (329), and on-base percentage (.407). He ranked third in bases on balls (82), extra-base hits (70), and slugging average (.555), and fourth in runs and RBI. Ott finished the season with just 4 GIDP in 593 at-bats — 0.67% of the time, and less than 1/3 of league average (2.09%). His low GIDP rate yielded 8-9 extra times on base and is roughly equivalent to 14 points of batting average, for someone who was already at .322. Ott was also one of the league's finest outfielders, with 17 assists, 7 double plays, and a .990 fielding percentage.

So where did the voters leave Ott in '35? Second? Third? Heaven forbid, eighth or ninth or something? Ott finished 20th in NL MVP voting. And please don't imagine that Ott and Medwick were punished for the poor performances of their teams. Ott's Giants won 91 games. The Cardinals won 96. Medwick didn't lead his own team in MVP voting, and Ott actually ranked 5th in the MVP voting among his own team.

One of the teammates Ott received fewer votes than was catcher Gus Mancuso. Ott's batting line was .322/.407 /.555. Mancuso's was .298/.342/.380. Ott finished the season with 329 total bases, Mancuso with 170. Ott scored and drove in a combined total of 227 runs; Mancuso scored and drove in a combined total of 89. Mancuso was regarded as superb at handling pitchers, but to be more valuable than Mel Ott, you'd have to turn everyone on the staff into Lefty Grove. It boggles the mind that a superstar like Ott bats .322, hits the second-most HR in the league, and gets a total of three points in the MVP voting.

That same season, Pittsburgh shortstop Arky Vaughan led the NL in batting average (.385), on-base percentage (.491), and slugging (.607). Vaughan in '35 and Chuck Klein in '33 were the only National Leaguers to win the "Slash Stat" Triple Crown between Sherry Magee (1910) and Stan Musial (1943). Not that OBP and slugging were recognized at the time, but you're obviously talking about exceptional performances. Vaughan's OPS of 1.098 led the league by 136 points, miles ahead of the second-place tie between Ott and Medwick (both .962).

Vaughan in '35 led the NL in walks, actually had more than five times as many walks (97) as strikeouts (18), and led the league in times on base (296). We all know that getting on base was undervalued in 1935 — hell, it's undervalued today — but .491 OBP? That's a Ted Williams season. Hey, maybe it's fitting that Vaughan didn't win the MVP.

But Vaughan, a shortstop, was much more valuable than Ted Williams in the field. He wasn't Ozzie Smith, but he was playing a demanding defensive position. If your shortstop is the best hitter in the league, you're going to win a lot of games. Unless you're the 2002 Texas Rangers or something. Anyway, Vaughan led the league in every major offensive efficiency stat and gained 303 total bases. He placed third in the 1935 NL MVP vote.

In addition to the tremendous seasons turned in by Berger and Galan, Herman and Medwick, Ott and Vaughan, several pitchers had pretty great seasons. Brooklyn's Van Mungo went 16-10 for a team that was 54-73 in its other games. He tied for the league lead in shutouts (4), and led the NL in K/9 by almost three-quarters of a strikeout (6.00). He didn't get a single vote in the MVP selection, despite that his name really was Van Mungo.

Reds pitcher Paul Derringer was 22-13 (.623) for a team that was 46-72 (.390) in its other games. He was third in the NL in innings pitched (276 2/3) and in wins. Derringer's 3.51 ERA ranked a respectable 15th, but his 3.37 FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching) ranked an impressive 4th, and he finished among the league's top 10 in strikeouts. He tied Mancuso, the New York catcher, for 17th in MVP voting.

Phillies reliever Syl Johnson overcame the Baker Bowl, a tremendous hitter's park, to post the second-best K/BB ratio in the National League, 2.87-to-1. He's listed with 18 starts and 19 relief appearances (unthinkable today), and credited with a 10-8 record and 6 saves. He led the team in ERA (3.56) and easily in WHIP (1.22). Those numbers probably seem pedestrian, but the Baker Bowl in the '30s was comparable to Coors Field in the '90s. In away games, Johnson had a 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 3.89 K/BB ratio. That would have ranked him ninth in ERA, third in WHIP, and first in K/BB. On the road, Johnson was one of the best pitchers in the majors, but his home field was so brutal for pitchers that his overall stats are not impressive.

Johnson didn't get any MVP votes, which is not entirely surprising, but for reasons largely beyond my understanding, Johnson's teammate Curt Davis tied for 21st in the voting and shows in modern sabermetric stats as one of the best players in the NL, at any position. Davis was 16-14 with a 3.66 ERA and 74 strikeouts (2.88 K/9, 1.57 K/BB ratio). The Neutralized Pitching tool at Baseball Reference suggests that in an average NL park, Davis' ERA would have been 3.26. That seems totally plausible, and with his 231 IP, it certainly makes him a valuable pitcher; I just don't understand how it makes him as valuable as Dizzy Dean.

Pittsburgh's Cy Blanton had a tremendous 1935 season. He led the league in ERA (2.58) and WHIP (1.08), was third in strikeouts per inning, and was the best in the league at preventing home runs (0.11 per 9 innings). Blanton pitched 23 complete games (third-best) and hurled four shutouts (tied for the league lead). His 2.77 FIP led the NL by half a run, and sabermetric statistics suggest that he was the best pitcher in the league. Blanton went 18-13, though, and tied for 15th in the MVP voting.

Four Chicago Cubs pitchers won 15 games in 1935. Charlie Root was 15-8 with a 1.19 WHIP. Bill Lee went 20-6 with a 2.96 ERA. Lon Warneke went 20-13 with a 1.17 WHIP, and led the team in innings (261 2/3) and strikeouts (120). Southpaw Larry French was 17-10 with a 2.96 ERA. He pitched four shutouts, tied for the most in the league, and didn't throw a wild pitch all season.

Lee got one 10th-place vote, tying Waner, Camilli, and Giants third baseman Travis Jackson for 24th place. Warneke ranked 12th. Neither Root nor French got a single vote. For what it's worth, advanced statistics suggest that French was the most effective pitcher on the staff, with a team-leading 3.41 FIP and 133 ERA+ (the latter tied with Lee).

The Giants had a pair of great pitchers, as well. Hal Schumacher went 19-9, ranking 3rd in the NL in both ERA (2.89) and WHIP (1.17). Carl Hubbell ranked second in the NL in complete games (24), innings pitched (302 2/3), and strikeouts (150). He finished 23-12 and led the league in K/BB ratio (3.06). Hubbell tied for sixth in the MVP voting and Schumacher didn't get a vote.

The most famous tandem, of course, was the Dean brothers in St. Louis. Paul Dean went 19-12 and ranked among the league's top five in innings, strikeouts, and WHIP. Dizzy Dean went 28-12, and led the league in numerous celebrated statistics: wins (28), complete games (29), innings (325 1/3), and strikeouts (190). He even saved 5 games. Dizz ranked 6th in ERA and tied with Bill Swift of the Pirates for the league's second-best FIP (3.27). Dizzy placed second in MVP voting. Paul tied for 21st.

According to rWAR, Baseball-Reference.com's Wins Above Replacement, the 10 best players in the NL in 1935 were:

1. Arky Vaughan, PIT (.385 BA, 1.098 OPS)
2. Mel Ott, NYG (.407 OBP, .555 SLG)
t3. Curt Davis, PHI (231 IP, hitter's park)
t3. Dizzy Dean, STL (28-12, 190 K)
t3. Billy Herman, CHI (227 H, 57 2B, defense)
6. Cy Blanton, PIT (2.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)
7. Joe Medwick, STL (.353 BA, 132 R, 126 RBI)
8. Wally Berger, BOS (130 RBI, .548 SLG)
t9. Augie Galan, CHI (133 R, 0 GIDP)
t9. Syl Johnson, PHI (10-8, 3.56 ERA)

Modern statistical analysis shows Vaughan as easily the best player in the National League. Bill James has written extensively about Vaughan's season. Earlier, I wrote that Ducky Medwick "hit more singles, more doubles, more triples, and more home runs than Vaughan. He scored more runs and drove more in." That's all true. So how could Vaughan be more valuable?

The biggest differences are times on base and outs used. Vaughan walked 97 times, most in the NL, and got hit by 7 pitches. Medwick walked 30 times with 4 HBP. Vaughan grounded into 5 double plays, compared to 15 for Medwick. Just looking at BB, HBP, and GIDP, that's 80 extra times on base for Vaughan. Medwick had 224 hits in 634 at-bats, meaning he made 410 outs at the plate. Vaughan got 192 hits in 499 at-bats, giving him 307 outs. So Vaughan has 80 more times on base and 103 fewer outs. That's easily worth 62 total bases.

I never saw any of these guys play. I wasn't even alive in 1935. But it seems to me that at least half a dozen players had MVP-quality seasons, exceptional in different ways. Galan probably had one of the best seasons ever by a leadoff man. Berger was the league's best power hitter, the only good player on a truly terrible team. Medwick was the most prolific hitter, with a great average and good power. Blanton was the league's most efficient pitcher, Dizzy Dean an elite workhorse. Herman led the league in hits and was perhaps the most valuable fielder in baseball. Ott did everything well. And no batter was more efficient than Vaughan, whose season was so exceptional it can be regarded as historic.

The 1935 NL MVP Award was voted to Chicago catcher Gabby Hartnett. He was a good hitter (.344/.404/.545), a good fielder (MLB-leading 61% CS), and good handler of pitchers (Root, Lee, Warneke, and French all had good years). That's a very nice season, but Hartnett only played 116 games.

Hartnett would have ranked third in the league in BA, fourth in OBP, and fifth in SLG. That's terrific, especially for a good defensive catcher. But Hartnett didn't actually have enough plate appearances (461) to qualify for the leaderboards. He ranked ninth in the NL in RBI (91), didn't make the top 10 in any other statistic. Hartnett in '35 gained 225 TB, actually the second-highest total of his career. But that's outside the top 20 in the NL, almost 100 TB behind Galan, Vaughan, Herman, and Berger. It's more than 100 behind Ott, and almost 150 behind Medwick.

None of those guys were inefficient on offense; they all ranked in the top 10 in OPS and OPS+. And none of them were poor defensive players. Galan, Medwick, and Berger were good defensive outfielders. Ott was a terrific defensive outfielder. Vaughan was a decent shortstop. Herman was a sensational second baseman. Was Hartnett's 3/4 of a season so extraordinary that he should rank ahead of the NL's other standouts? The Cubs went 78-38 (.672) with Hartnett in the lineup, compared to 22-16 (.579) without him. Certainly that's a big difference.

My intention here is not to prove that Hartnett was a bad choice as MVP. It's just to highlight some great seasons, superb in different ways. I'm confident that Vaughan was the best player in the league, but beyond that, it's guessing. I mean, I'm three-quarters of a century removed from this season, and there's only so much you can get from analyzing statistics and reading about the players. But since we've gotten this far, here's my own MVP ballot, 77 years late:

1. Arky Vaughan, SS, PIT
2. Mel Ott, RF, NYG
3. Dizzy Dean, RHP, STL
4. Billy Herman, 2B, CHI
5. Joe Medwick, LF, STL
6. Cy Blanton, RHP, PIT
7. Augie Galan, LF, CHI
8. Wally Berger, CF, BOS
9. Gabby Hartnett, C, CHI
10. Carl Hubbell, LHP, NYG

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:45 AM | Comments (1)

July 16, 2012

How the AFC West Will Be Won

In 2010, second year head coach Todd Haley led the improbable run made by the Kansas City Chiefs that ended with a 10-6 record and AFC West title. He was considered one of the best young coaches in the NFL, and the Chiefs appeared set for a division title defense in 2011. But after the dust settled on a tumultuous 2011 season — thanks to a slew of injuries, and the firing the once highly touted Haley — the Chiefs looked much less impressive, and much different on paper, than they had a year prior.

But now, the silver lining appears to be more than just a lining once again. With the return of Eric Berry to the defensive secondary, and the returns of Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki to the offense, the 2010 gang is almost all back together. But the fun for the Chiefs and their fans only begins there.

You want to talk about difference makers from free agency? Try signing the bruise-inducing Peyton Hillis to complement Charles, adding Eric Winston to an already good offensive line, giving Moeaki a dependable counterpart with TE Kevin Boss, and replacing Brandon Carr with the more explosive Stanford Rout.

Here's a quick review of everything so far, and look ahead to Kansas City's major pieces in the coming year: Charles and Hillis in the backfield, Dwayne Bowe, Moeaki, Boss, and Steve Breaston among the explosive unit of targets in the passing game, an offensive line that lands somewhere between good and great, a defensive front that features the feared Tamba Hali and the explosive second-year defensive end named Justin Houston, a group of line backers anchored by All-Pro MLB Derrick Johnson, and a secondary that features Eric Berry and Brandon Flowers (and now Stanford Rout).

That makes two 1,000-yard rushers, two upper-echelon tight ends in addition to two 1,000-yard receivers, solid offensive and defensive lines, and a stacked defensive secondary. So yeah, the Chiefs have the personnel to win right away. But that's not the only reason they'll go farther this season than they have in a long time.

Last year's team went 7-9, finishing in last place in the AFC West. They compiled that 7-9 record against a schedule they had earned as a result of their first-place finish a year earlier. This year's team will face a schedule based on the fourth-place finish.

I don't pretend to have all of the answers when it comes to football, but it only follows logically that if an injury-bitten team could compile a 7-9 record against a first-place schedule, the same (healthy) team with improved personnel should do significantly better than .500 against a fourth-place schedule.

Add in the fact that the Chiefs locker room woes were seemingly nixed with the firing of Haley, and the fact that players love to play for Romeo Crennel, and it's clear how the West will be won.

The road to the AFC West title goes through Kansas City in 2012.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 10:56 PM | Comments (0)

Out Amongst the Stars

There's an anticipation for big events, no matter whether they're in entertainment, politics, or sports. The World Cup, the Olympics, the Super Bowl, the Masters, and others create a buzz that boosts the host city's morale and economy, if only for a brief time. That wasn't lost on Kansas City this past week as baseball's All-Star Game (along with all of its pageantry) descended on the Heartland for the second time in three years (it was in St. Louis in 2009).

I actually can attest to that excitement because I was fortunate enough to be in my hometown while the festivities were going on. Working at a radio station in the Twin Cities area, I had the fortune to cover the weekend for my workplace. And through all the running around that getting the soundbite entails, I also had the chance to walk through the crowd a few times over the three-day event.

Whether it was at the Futures Game (Sunday), just before the Home Run Derby (Monday), or at the beginning of the A.S.G. (Tuesday), one thing was clear. The anticipation for this showcase was well worth the wait, well worth the costly renovation, and, most importantly, possibly worth all the losing the home franchise has inflicted on the city over the last two-plus decades.

The smiling children and the exuberant adults created an atmosphere that was prideful and (mostly) pleasant. It was the first opportunity in years to let the country hear their voice, no matter how … misguided … it was. I wasn't at the stadium during the Home Run Derby, so there wasn't a first-hand account of the treatment of AL captain Robinson Cano from me.

But I did see the highlights … with the audio up.

I'll just say this. When you have the current face of the Red Sox (David Ortiz) defending the Yankee player that almost won last year's AL MVP, you might have gone a bit too far. Other than that, it appeared that the city played a fine host to baseball's executives and its most famous faces.

Now, as I sit here, back in the Twin Cities after the trip, there are a couple of things that I wonder about.

Could an All-Star Game conjure up success?

A commentary posted Saturday night on the website of the Kansas City Star puts in in plain English when it comes to Royals owner David Glass. It's time to put up or shut up. But could this plan have been put into motion two years ago (when the ASG in KC was announced)?

Since the 2002 tie in Milwaukee, we've seen 10 Midsummer Classics. Three of these hosts were perennial playoff participants (NY Yankees, St. Louis, and Anaheim). Five others have had hit-and-miss appearances. Of those squads, each one improved their stock after hosting the annual interruption.

The White Sox hosted the game in 2003, followed by Houston in 2004. By October of 2005, both teams were facing each other in the Fall Classic. In 2005, the ASG returned to Detroit for its first appearance at Comerica Park. The next year, and only three after a 119-loss season, the Tigers were vying for their first championship in 22 years.

San Francisco received the honor of hosting the 2007 ASG. That was at the tail end of the Barry Bonds-era Giants. The City by the Bay suffered through two 90-loss years before the current pitching staff turned things around to the tune of a World Championship in 2010. And don't forget last year's Arizona team. After hosting the game's best in July, they shocked the League, winning the NL West in September.

The two franchises that haven't been near the pinnacle of the postseason were the Pirates (2006) and the Royals. However, Pittsburgh might be changing that perception. With this year's team leading the NL Central into the second half, they might continue the trend of success for all-star host cities. That possible scrutiny could be just the thing Kansas City needs to get back to contending status.

Did the right city host the festivities?

In many other years, this question doesn't even get asked. However, the MLB bigwigs had an unusual situation in 2012.

I've had conversations with one of my good friends about this whole process. He's a New Englander born and bred, a Red Sox fan through and through. He believed that Boston should have hosted this year's festivities as a tribute to Fenway Park turning 100-years-old. Instead, Bud Selig went with the franchise that committed to upgrading their facilities. It goes in line with all the other sports leagues across the country. Dangle the carrot of prestige for investing in the shiny new toy.

In this case, the shimmer came off of Kauffman Stadium's $256-million dollar renovation project that provided expanded outfield seating, a new scoreboard, and even new dugouts. It trumped the history of the Babe, Teddy Ballgame, the 2004 "Idiots," and the Green Monster. But it had only been 13 years since Fenway hosted the 1999 weekend, and with more teams (and more stadiums to showcase), the probability of heading back to the same ballpark in the same city without major renovations so quickly has tailed off.

The real dilemma might actually come up in 2014. That will be the next turn for the American League, and Minneapolis' Target Field is in the mix for the game. However, the Cubs hope to switch that order around for their 100th anniversary of Wrigley Field. By then, the Friendly Confines will have gone nearly a quarter-century without hosting the all-stars. Will tradition or renewal win out then?

Beyond the questions I may have about the placement of timing of this past week, one statement fills my thoughts. It's that the All-Star Game truly is the fans experience. No matter what corporate events, TV cameras, or road closures might change the environment of the host city, the fans feel like they're part of the party. They're part of the glamor. They're part of the magic that can occur when the best players of their game come out to play … even in blowout fashion.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 8:10 PM | Comments (0)

July 13, 2012

NBA 2012-13 Season Forecast

* Season tickets are the hot item in New Orleans, as many fans take advantage of the "Me So Hornet" package, which comes with two tickets to 41 home games, an Anthony Davis "Fear the Brow" poster, an Austin River's "Who's Your Daddy?" t-shirt, and a three-back of Bounty paper towels.

The Hornets quintuple their number of wins from last year, finishing the season 35-47, third in the Southeast Division.

* Rap mogul and minority owner of the Nets Jay-Z kicks off Brooklyn's season when he throws out the first bitch at the home opener against the Knicks on November 1st. Jay-Z then grabs the mic and boasts that Brooklyn "izza" championship contender.

The Nets' two megastars, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard, are cast in a massive Bud Light ad campaign, in which Bud Light's familiar "Here We Go" slogan is slightly altered. "Here ego" soon becomes the Nets' catchphrase.

* LeBron James and the Heat receive their NBA championship rings at halftime of Miami's season opener against the Thunder. It's James' first ring, giving him one more than his mother.

The Heat beat the Nets in the Eastern Conference finals, then fall to the Lakers in seven in the Finals.

* Metta World Peace's new cologne, Flagrance 2, with a hint of leather and reckless aggression, hits the market on Black Friday. Sales are moderate, until a review in GQ magazine rates the cologne as "technically foul." Soon after, the product is yanked from the shelves.

World Peace's burgeoning acting career starts rolling when he is selected to play the title role in the remake of Candyman.

* The United States team falls in the gold medal game of the Olympics, losing 101-99 to Spain. The so-called "Dream Team" returns stateside, where they face a firestorm of media criticism, prompting a chuckling Michael Jordan to refer to them as "Da Ream Team." Charles Barkley echoes Jordan's sentiments, telling the 2012 unit that "if there is a silver lining to this, they should easily be able to find it."

* San Antonio's Tony Parker draws the event's biggest laughs when, at the 2012 BET Hip Hop Awards Show in October, he sports an eye patch as he announces the nominees for "Best Performance," which include Chris Brown and Drake.

Parker leaves as the night's biggest winner, departing with Rihanna on his arm as Brown and Drake settle their differences through a game of "Rock, Paper, Scissors, 9mm."

* Lamar Odom's return to Los Angeles is a successful one, as he averages 13 points and 6 rebounds per game off the bench for the Clippers, enjoying his biggest role since his stint on Khloe and Lamar. Odom falls short in the voting for the league's Sixth Man of the Year award, but disappointment for the Kardashian family is tempered when Kim reaches her "sixth man of the year" in early June.

* David Stern's 70th birthday on September 22nd is a magical one, as the Brooklyn Nets sponsor a church choir to sing "Happy Birthday" at the NBA offices in Manhattan. The group, ironically named "A Chorus of Boos," follows up "Happy Birthday" with a request from Stern, and sings "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going."

* The Charlotte Bobcats lose their first seven games of the season, running their consecutive loses streak to 30 games. Bobcats chairman Michael Jordan vows to come out of retirement and suit up for the team, and does.

However, Jordan's return is short-lived, lasting only one game, after it becomes clear that Jordan now only has the ability to do damage off the court, and not on it.

Charlotte finishes the season with a 17-65 record, and a disappointed Jordan vows to go back too the drawing board, which he conveniently finds on a golf course.

* In March at the Nickelodeon Kids' Choice Awards, Dwight Howard presents the award for Favorite Male Athlete to Peyton Manning. As he leaves the stage, Howard is slimed by a Superman cape-wearing Stan Van Gundy, who tells Howard, "I may not be able to make you play, but I can make you pay."

* Phoenix rookie Kendall Marshall, thrust into the starting point guard role after Steve Nash's departure, leads the NBA in assists, averaging 10.9 per game, edging Ricky Rubio. Rubio finds consolation in winning the ESPY Award for "Pro Athlete With Name Most Mistaken For a Pro Wrestler's."

* Kobe Bryant leads the league in scoring, averaging 28.9 points per game to edge Kevin Love by .4. Bryant is later presented with a $6 million diamond ring from his wife Vanessa, a gift given, depending on whom you ask, either as a token of a loving wife's congratulations, or for a wife's torrid mid-season fling with Steve Nash.

* The Heat blow out the Pistons 132-79 on October 13th, a win not only notable because of the margin of victory, but also because Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra completes the game without making a single coaching decision.

* Frank Deford's new book debuts at Number 1 on the New York Times best-seller list in November. The book, titled "The Old C's and the Man," chronicles the Boston Celtic's 2011-12 season, in which the team, led by Rajon Rondo and veterans Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen, nearly made it to the NBA Finals.

The 2012-13 team, minus Allen, falls to the Heat in six games in the conference semifinals, despite a Herculean effort in Game 6 from Rondo, who scores 49 points and notches 21 assists.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:48 PM | Comments (0)

July 12, 2012

The BCS Four-Team Playoff: Really Better?

A few weeks ago, the commissioners of the BCS reached an agreement that will showcase a four-team playoff for college football's national championship. Under the new agreement, the BCS Bowl Games (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose) will take turns hosting the semifinals for the national championship with the winners of those two games meeting to determine a winner.

Many college football fans have concluded that this is a "small victory" or "a step in the right direction" or at least that "it's better than before." And while I can't completely disagree with those sentiments, the reality is the bickering won't stop and college football fans will continue to be dissatisfied with the system.

Also, I think there is one thing about the new agreement that quite frankly sucks — especially for schools in weaker conferences. The first thing that struck me about this agreement was how the number of teams invited to the elite BCS bowl games has now decreased from 10 to eight. Six of those teams will be conference champions, leaving two spots available for at large bids. Chances are pretty good that those at large bids will be taken by the SEC, Pac-12, or the conference formerly known as the Big Ten. It decreases the chances that a team from the Mountain West or the WAC or any other weaker conference will get a team into a BCS Bowl Game — even if they are undefeated.

In the past, I have been criticized for making money too big of an issue as it relates to BCS bowl games. But I'm going to do it again. The Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Orange Bowl payout is $17 million dollars each. The highest paying non-BCS bowl is the Capital One Bowl which pays out a measly $4,550,000. BCS Bowls pay out over three times the amount of the next highest bowl game, making the decision to have two fewer teams eligible for such a payout a big deal in my opinion.

The solution is simple: have the Capital One Bowl (or the Outback Bowl, Alamo Bowl, or Cotton Bowl) become a BCS bowl. Keep the top 10 teams in the elite bowls.

That's a pretty simple solution to that predicament. But if the four-team playoff is a step in the right direction, we need to analyze where we are headed. Many have been proponents of an eight-team playoff, others are for a 16-team playoff, and I've heard a handful proposing a 12-team playoff that would look similar to the NFL playoffs. In my opinion, any proposal that requires four weeks ignores one major concern: the academic calendar.

Football is not a sport where playing multiple games in a week is a good idea, especially after a lengthy break and that break is going to stay no matter how many college football fans think it is unnecessary. Colleges and Universities will break from sports for Finals Week at the end of the semester. So ... sorry ... but get over it.

That being said, the eight-team playoff isn't out of the question because it can be done in three weekends and lets face it, the current schedule lasts longer than that anyway.

Is that where we are headed? An eight-team playoff? Would you be happy with that? Of course not! You'll be dissatisfied with the four-team system as soon as there is a fifth team that deserves a shot at the playoff. Then you'll be dissatisfied with the eight-team system as soon as there is a difficult decision between the eighth best team and the ninth best team. And you're not getting a 16-team playoff in the next 40 years, so what possible solution is there for this complete mess?

I have one, and I'd like to know what you think about it. It's a system that requires flexibility and contingencies — two things college football is not known for at all, making it a rather unlikely solution. But I find it to fit all of the current needs: college football fans need to have an undisputed champion, colleges and universities need to respect the academic calendar and have this process be reasonably short, and commissioners need to make lots of money and continue the bowl culture.

That solution is a variable-sized playoff field (from two teams to eight teams) which is determined at the end of each regular season.

The reason I propose this is because year in and year out I see that the needed size for a playoff field varies with each year. Four teams that stand out above the rest is rare. So is three. So is eight. There is no magic number. It depends on the year and therefore the system should also depend on the year.

So let's examine how a four-team playoff would have looked in the past five seasons, starting with last year. 2011 stands as the only year in recent memory when at the end of the regular season and conference championships, four teams stood above the rest: LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Stanford. Last year, a four-team playoff made a ton of sense. Play Stanford against LSU and Alabama against Oklahoma State and see who wins to face off in the championship.

Do you want an only conference champions rule? Fine, kick out Alabama and play a three-team playoff with Stanford playing Oklahoma State and giving LSU a bye to face the winner.

In 2011, drawing up an eight-team playoff would have been nearly impossible. There were the four previously mentioned teams, seven power conference teams with two losses — Houston and Boise State from weaker conferences and only one loss. That's 13 teams — not eight. The natural cutoff in 2011 was at four (or three if you only want conference champions).

In 2010, arguments could have been made in a few different directions. There were three undefeated teams and in my opinion, any playoff system that is put in place should include a stipulation that says all undefeated teams will be in the playoff. In 2010, I would hear arguments for three teams or seven. But how in the world would the BCS have chosen a fourth team to join the three undefeated teams in 2010? There were six one-loss teams — four of those from major conferences. A three-team playoff would have been my vote in 2010.

In 2009, five teams ended the regular season undefeated. How in the world does a four-team playoff deal with five undefeated teams? Truthfully, it can't. In 2009, I would have argued for a five or six teams in the playoff system, potentially adding one-loss Florida to the mix as the only one-loss team in the country at that time.

2008 is the most difficult year to analyze. There were seven powerful one-loss teams, along with Utah and Boise State both going undefeated. It was a year where being a conference champion had to carry more weight than previous years, meaning I would have argued for a six-team playoff taking only the two undefeated teams and the four one-loss conference champions, leaving behind the three one-loss teams that did not win their conference. But again, how does a four-team playoff solve a year like 2008? Are you really going to take four one-loss teams over two undefeated teams? Can you really take one undefeated team and not the other? If so, which one-loss team to you leave out? How do you leave any of those six out? What criteria can you possibly use to make such a decision?

2007 was also a difficult year to find the right number, but that problem existed because of inconsistencies in conferences choosing whether or not to have championship games. Ohio State and Missouri both ended their seasons 11-1. Missouri had to beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game, but failed. Ohio State didn't have to do anything more than its 12 regular season games. Had Missouri not been forced into a Big 12 Championship Game, they would have been an obvious choice for a National Championship Game against Ohio State. Instead, Missouri didn't even make it into a BCS Bowl Game. But I digress on the ridiculousness of how conference champions are decided.

A four-team playoff in 2007 would have seen Ohio State, LSU, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma — four conference champions, three of which had two losses. It would have left out an undefeated Hawaii, and two-loss conference champions West Virginia and USC, as well as one-loss Kansas who didn't even play in their conference championship game. Not to mention the aforementioned two-loss Missouri, and other two-loss teams Georgia, Arizona State, BYU, and Boise State. In the end, I would have pushed for a seven-team playoff in 2007 with the six major conference champions and Hawaii. Sorry, Kansas.

A four-team playoff sounds better than a two-team playoff that only takes three hours, but the truth is it will probably be a more difficult decision in narrowing to four than it has been in narrowing to two. Arguments can always be made for more or less teams vying for college football's highest prize and while four might be better than two in some years, recent history assures us it won't slow down any bickering.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 12:06 PM | Comments (0)

July 11, 2012

All-Star Break Time For Sox to Cut Padilla

Question: what's worse than being last-place heading into the All-Star Break? Answer: having an ignorant bigot of a relief pitcher on your team and being last-place heading into the All-Star Break. Unfortunately, this weekend Vicente Padilla proved that the Boston Red Sox are in the worst case scenario at this point.

Padilla has, for many years, been a serviceable middle-to-late reliever in the major leagues. In fact, 10 years ago, he represented the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2002 All-Star Game. However, it would be hard to argue that the MLB needs Vicente Padilla in any meaningful way.

After his comments about Mark Teixeira this weekend, it might be easier to argue that the MLB would be better off without him altogether.

Teixeira has played in the MLB since 2003 and, in the past decade, has been a far more productive player than Padilla ever has or will be. A two-time all-star, four-time Gold Glover, and three-time Silver Slugger Award winner, "Tex" has played baseball with dignity and respect for his teammates, opponents, and the game itself ever since he donned a professional uniform.

Vicente Padilla, on the other hand, is a known wild card out of the bullpen, with a penchant for letting a fastball go every now and then. In 2006, he led the MLB in hit batsmen (17) as a relief pitcher. Either he's got some of the worst functioning motor skills in the game or there's some intent every now and then.

Padilla and Tex have had a long-standing feud since their playing days in Texas when Padilla's emotional and effectively-wild pitching habits earned a few too many retaliation hit-by-pitches for the Rangers' three-hitter.

"Hitters don't have the same power that pitchers do," explained Teixeira, referring to a pitcher's ability to throw retaliatory fastballs at elite hitters — a favorite argument of those against the Designated Hitter rule. "Hitters just have to take it."

After going 2-for-2 against Padilla with a pair of home runs, Teixeira has since gone 1-for-9 with 3 HBP. He contends that Padilla has been headhunting.

Accusations of headhunting have been a part of the game for eons. Padilla hitting Tex in roughly 25% of their battles is slightly suspicious, so the allegation does not come without evidence. Therefore, Padilla was left with a few standard options for retaliating:

1) The Cole Hamels Method

Blunt honesty: yes, I hit him on purpose. This method would likely merit a suspension, but it would at least be a display of honor and guts in a sport where both of those have largely disappeared over the past 20 years.

2) The Every-Other-Pitcher Method

Act appalled, deny everything, call Teixeira insane. Pretend the evidence doesn't stand in Tex's corner and continue playing without liking each other.

3) Ignore Teixeira Completely, Continue Pitching as Before

Unfortunately, Padilla jumped off the charted course to do a little improv, creating a fourth option.

4) Spread the Unfounded Rumor That Your Opponent is a Racist Combined With the Patented Insult the Entire Female Gender By Suggesting the Opponent is Weak Like a Woman

I quote: "The problem is [Teixeira] talks about all the wrong things others have done, but the things he's done — against the Latinos — he doesn't open his mouth about… We are all men here playing baseball. We don't need no women playing baseball."

With great chivalry, he tried to clarify his comments: "I just meant that not even women complain as much as him."

Thanks, Vicente. We get it now. Women everywhere can sleep better now, knowing that they only complain more than anyone except Latino-hating Mark Teixeira.

If you include the misuse of a double-negative, there are at least three parties he disparages with his comments: 1) non-racists, 2) women, and 3) grammarians.

Look, if you don't like a particular opponent, that's fine. However, slandering him with claims that have no evidence is unacceptable. When has Teixeira ever done anything remotely racist? What examples does Padilla provide? Beyond that, what point was Padilla trying to make saying Tex should be playing women's sports?

His comments are classless and xenophobic. Teixeira responded appropriately.

"I ask you guys to interview every one of my Latin teammates in this clubhouse right now and ask them," he challenged.

This is a bit more convincing. He offers a chance to gather anecdotal proof — something Padilla refuses to delve into.

Padilla is the type of professional athlete that has destroyed the "athlete-as-role-model" paradigm over the past 50 years. The game — and the world, for that matter — really has no place for ignorance and lies from those who have a microphone and media in front of them. I understand the irony of my comment — many people in the media display ignorance and spread falsehoods — but my point is that if we continue to allow comments like these to surface without holding the violators accountable, many children around the country will continue to be exposed to fearful stupidity, not yet knowing how to distinguish opinion from truth.

The Red Sox have the unique opportunity to right a wrong here. Padilla is not an ace (because, sadly, that would matter), nor is he going to win the pennant for this team. If Ben Cherington, Bobby Valentine, and Co. want to send a strong message to the world of professional sports, it would be by cutting this pitcher immediately.

Prove to the world of baseball that dignity and respect trump (mediocre) talent.

Remember, Barry Bonds was blackballed from baseball (with a few good swings left) simply because he took steroids. Let's forget that the only reason this offended anyone was because he was simply better than all the rest of the PED-abusing peers (A-Rod, Jason Giambi, and many others still have jobs). Why should racism, xenophobia, and headhunting rest on a higher tier of appropriateness?

One tarnishes the record book, the other tarnishes the human race.

So Red Sox, I challenge you to send Padilla where he belongs: out of Major League Baseball.

If not, I'll pray that a woman comes up for the Yankees and hits a line-drive single off of Padilla's shin.

Failing that, I just hope an organization that allows such ignorance falls back into the cellar, where such behavior belongs.

Posted by Louie Centanni at 11:51 AM | Comments (4)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 18

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Tony Stewart — Stewart zoomed past the Roush Fenway duo of Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle to win the Coke Zero 400, Stewart's fourth Coke Zero win and 18th overall at Daytona. Stewart started 40th and slowly but surely worked his way to the front as the night wore on.

"I hit all my marks," Stewart said, "and I've never failed a drug test. You could say 'I've minded my P's and cues."

"I knew I had to separate the Kenseth/Biffle tandem, and I did so. Apparently, Joe Gibbs isn't the only one able to split up Roush Fenway teammates."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth started on the pole at Daytona and nearly held on for the wire-to-wire finish. But Tony Stewart's last-lap pass spoiled Kenseth's ambitions, although he held on for the runner-up spot and extended his points lead to 25 over Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

"Tony ran a heck of a race," Kenseth said. "Apparently, A.J. Allmendinger isn't the only one 'Smoking' in NASCAR."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt was in position to dash for the win at Daytona, but a final-lap crash sent him spinning, where he slammed the wall. He was able to guide his damaged No. 88 across the line in 15th and remained second in the Sprint Cup point standings, 25 behind Matt Kenseth.

"It's certainly not the first time I've hit a wall," Earnhardt said. "I hit one after winning at Michigan in 2008, and felt the effects for nearly four years."

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson was bumped from behind while attempting to enter pit road on lap 125. His No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet slammed the turn four wall and Johnson finished 36th, his third super-speedway DNF this year.

"It appears I'm cursed on superspeedways," Johnson said. "Therefore, I curse at superspeedways.

"Speaking of 'cursing,' A.J. Allmendinger had to utter a few after getting busted by NASCAR. I would never make that mistake. Not because I'm a prude, but because I'd never want to be the subject of the headline 'Highs and Lowe's.'"

5. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin was running third with eight laps to go when he got loose entering turn one and triggered a wreck involving 14 cars. Hamlin's No. 11 FedEx Toyota returned to the track after extensive repairs and finished 25th, four laps down. Hamlin fell two places to seventh in the points standings, 92 out of first.

"I may drive a Toyota," Hamlin said, "but I don't think anyone ordered 'Japanese take out.' At FedEx, regardless of the circumstances, we deliver. Hopefully, affected drivers can forgive me. I surely don't want to hear other drivers whispering about my supposed lack of driving skills. I already have back problems; I certainly don't need 'behind the back' problems."

6. Greg Biffle — Biffle led 35 laps at Daytona and was pushing Matt Kenseth on the final lap before Tony Stewart, with help from Kasey Kahne, disrupted the Roush Fenway draft and took the win. Biffle then turned down on Kevin Harvick and started a huge pileup as Stewart hurtled towards the finish. Biffle finished 21st and is third in the point standings, 44 behind Kenseth.

"I'm sure a lot of drivers are unhappy with me," Biffle said. "My lane change was a lot like Kenseth's team change — I still can't tell you where I was going."

7. Brad Keselowski — Keselowki finished eighth in the Coke Zero 400, following up his Kentucky win with a solid top-10 result. He is ninth in the point standings, 103 out of first.

"As you've probably heard," Keselowski said, "my Penske teammate A.J. Allmendinger was suspended for failing a drug test. That's too bad. I like communicating on Twitter, with 140 characters. It's seems A.J. likes communicating with '4:20' characters."

"But I can't discuss A.J.'s situation, despite my burning desire to talk it up on Twitter. Roger Penske told me the same thing he told A.J. — 'pipe down.'"

8. Kevin Harvick — Harvick was caught up in a final lap wreck that likely cost him a top-10 finish, which would have been his first since a second at Dover on June 3rd. Harvick is sixth in the point standings, 90 behind Matt Kenseth.

"How is DeLana Harvick like A.J. Allmendinger?" Harvick said. "Her urine test turned up positive as well.

"I used to drive the Shell/Pennzoil-sponsored car. Not once did I ever have an 'intake' problem."

9. Carl Edwards — Edwards broke a five-race slump with his first top-10 result since a ninth at Charlotte, finishing sixth in the Coke Zero 400. He is now 11th in the point standings, 34 ahead of Paul Menard in 13th.

"Despite my first top 10 in six races," Edwards said, "Daytona left me with an empty feeling inside. How, of all people, could I find any enjoyment in a race won by Tony Stewart in Florida in which a Roush Fenway driver finished second? If I didn't know better, I'd say this was Homestead in 2011."

10. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex finished 17th at Daytona, limping to the finish after getting sucked in to a last-lap crash. Truex now sits seventh in the point standings, 92 out of first.

"Notable casualties in Daytona wrecks included me, Dale Earnhardt, and Juan Montoya," Truex said. "In other words, two 'Juniors' and one 'Senor.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:47 AM | Comments (0)

July 10, 2012

NFL Dynasties and Hall of Famers

Earlier this year, while working on an article about the greatest wide receivers snubbed by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, I realized that the 1990s Bills have more Hall of Famers than any of the teams that beat them in the Super Bowl. I asked readers, "How would you feel about [Andre] Reed getting elected and the Bills having twice as many HOFers as the Cowboy teams that embarrassed them in two Super Bowls?"

It got me thinking about which great teams are over- and under-represented in Canton. So below, we'll look at Hall of Famers and potential snubs for some of the most successful teams in history — including those (like the Bills) which obviously aren't true dynasties because they won few or no titles.

Lots of teams have three or four good seasons without distinguishing themselves in history, and beyond five or six years a team is seldom winning with the same players. We'll look at 39 teams who sustained success for exactly five years. The teams were selected based on a formula explained in an earlier column. In order to be listed, a player or coach must have appeared in at least 50% of the team's games.

This column will focus exclusively on Modern Era teams, 1946-present, with a couple allowances for those that began in 1945 and bled into the Modern Era. We'll go chronologically, starting in the '40s. The charts below show: team, years included, record and winning percentage, number of championships, number of championship appearances, and number of Pro Football Hall of Famers through 2012.

Early Modern Era

All of these teams are fairly well-represented in Canton, save one. The 1945-49 Rams were just as good as most of the other dynastic teams from this Pre-Lombardi, Pre-AFL Era. They never had a losing season, they won a championship, and another year they were Western Division champs but lost the title game. Despite putting together one of the finest five-year runs in NFL history, their only Hall of Famer is Bob Waterfield. The Rams of the early '50s have multiple Hall of Famers, but most of them joined the team in '48 or '49. The later team wasn't really any more successful, but it has five times as many busts in Canton. That's why we're doing this exercise.

Philadelphia Eagles, 1945-49
41-15-1 (.728), 2 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (4): Greasy Neale, Pete Pihos, Steve Van Buren, Alex Wojciechowicz
Potential snubs: Bucko Kilroy, Tommy Thompson, Al Wistert

Kilroy, a four-time all-pro, was infamous as the dirtiest player of his era. Sorry, Raider haters, but Jack Tatum has nothing on this guy. My four favorite quotes from the NFL Films feature "The Dirtiest Bird":

1. Teammate Vic Sears — "I don't think Bucko ever tried to be dirty, but (pause) well, I shouldn't say that."
2. Teammate Chuck Bednarik — "Bucko Kilroy was the dirtiest football player I ever saw."
3. Steelers Hall of Famer Ernie Stautner — "He was a fiendish guy."
4. Kilroy, on Art Donovan — "I was down on the ground and I kicked up. I caught him in the groin (laughs)."

Dirty or not, Kilroy was one of the premier linemen of his generation. After his playing career, he remained in the game as a consultant, assistant coach, scout, personnel director, general manager, and vice president of the Patriots. His many enemies and the objections to his playing style make Kilroy unlikely to receive serious HOF consideration, but he was a genuinely great player. It could be argued that both Kilroy and Wistert were better than Wojciechowicz. It's close; they were all outstanding players.

Cleveland/Los Angeles Rams, 1945-49
35-18-4 (.649), 1 championship, 2 title appearances

HOFers (1): Bob Waterfield
Potential snubs: Jim Benton, Fred Gehrke, Mike Lazetich, Riley Matheson

Rams owner Dan Reeves is in the Hall of Fame, and HOF GM Tex Schramm was affiliated with the Rams from 1947-56, as publicity director and later as a personnel man. But in this exercise, I'm only looking at coaches and players. Owners and general managers can play a huge role in the team's success, but they do so indirectly, by putting the right people on the field, and after that it's out of their hands.

Most of the Rams listed above excelled as two-way players, but haven't been serious candidates for the Hall of Fame because their careers were so short. Dick Huffman played just four seasons, 1947-50. Fred Naumetz was a three-time all-pro, but he only played from 1946-50. Gil Bouley and Lazetich were active from 1945-50. Among those four, only Bouley played at least 60 regular-season games. The stronger candidates, then, are Benton, Gehrke, and Matheson.

Benton twice led the NFL in receiving yardage. When he retired, Benton ranked 2nd all-time in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs, trailing only the immortal Don Hutson. Benton actually had more than twice as many catches (288) and yards (4,801) as third place. Gehrke debuted in 1940, played three games, then went to war. When he returned in 1945, he led the NFL in rushing average twice in a row. Gehrke was also a fine kick returner and defensive back. Matheson starred in three professional leagues: the NFL (Rams), AAFC (49ers), and CFL (Calgary Stampeders).

I'm a long way removed from the 1940s, but based on what I know about the team and the era, I'd like to see Benton and Matheson seriously considered as Hall of Fame nominees. If one of the short-career players deserves attention from the Seniors committee, I suppose it might be Milan "Sheriff" Lazetich, a two-way guard best known for his defensive play. Health problems forced his retirement following the 1950 season. Head coach Clark Shaughnessy, with the team from 1948-49, is or should be a very serious HOF candidate, mostly based on his innovations with the T-formation.

Cleveland Browns, 1946-50
57-6-3 (.886), 5 championships, 5 title appearances

HOFers (7): Paul Brown, Frank Gatski, Otto Graham, Lou Groza, Dante Lavelli, Marion Motley, Bill Willis
Potential snubs: Horace Gillom, Lou Rymkus, Mac Speedie

Mac Speedie has long been considered a Hall of Fame snub, and his case is discussed in depth here. Rymkus, an all-pro tackle, later coached the Houston Oilers to the inaugural championship of the American Football League, and probably should be just as serious a candidate as Speedie.

Despite my great admiration for this team, the greatest dynasty in the history of professional football, I believe it may be over-represented in Canton. Head coach Paul Brown, quarterback Otto Graham, and fullback Marion Motley were all so outstanding — perhaps the best ever at their respective positions — that they carried the team to unmatched heights with surprisingly little help. If we could go back and choose HOFers anew, I doubt Dante Lavelli would be inducted, and it might be touch-and-go for Gatski and Groza.

Los Angeles Rams, 1950-54
40-18-2 (.683), 1 championship, 2 title appearances

HOFers (5): Tom Fears, Crazy Legs Hirsch, Andy Robustelli, Norm Van Brocklin, Bob Waterfield
Potential snubs: Duane Putnam, Dan Towler, Tank Younger

Night Train Lane only played 23 games for the Rams, and Les Richter joined the team in 1954, so they're not listed here. Deacon Dan Towler and Paul "Tank" Younger comprised two-thirds of the famous Bull Elephant Backfield (along with Dick Hoerner). The three were often on the field together, and the Rams would send two of the huge fullbacks to block for the third. Defenses couldn't figure out how to stop them. In 1951, all three averaged over six yards per carry. Towler, who retired after only six seasons to join the ministry, was the standout, probably the greatest RB of the '50s until Joe Perry's emergence.

Cleveland Browns, 1951-55
48-11-1 (.808), 2 championships, 5 title appearances

HOFers (8): Paul Brown, Len Ford, Frank Gatski, Otto Graham, Lou Groza, Dante Lavelli, Marion Motley, Bill Willis
Potential snubs: Don Colo, Abe Gibron, Horace Gillom, Warren Lahr, Mac Speedie

Cleveland's list of potential HOF snubs is longer for its NFL years than the AAFC period, but most of these players are not strong candidates for induction. Speedie probably remains the most qualified.

Hall of Fame coach Chuck Noll was a player on these teams, but he's in Canton as coach of the Steelers, so he's not listed here.

Detroit Lions, 1952-56
40-19-1 (.675), 2 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (6): Jack Christiansen, Lou Creekmur, Yale Lary, Bobby Layne, Joe Schmidt, Doak Walker
Potential snubs: Les Bingaman, Jim David, Buddy Parker, Harley Sewell, Dick Stanfel

This is one of several dynasties with one or more title seasons omitted because of the five-year stipulation. It's not a perfect system, I know. Sewell and Stanfel were both offensive linemen. The Lions, not known as a great offensive team, already have three Hall of Famers on offense (Creekmur, Layne, and Walker). I'd rather see Bingaman or David in Canton than either of the o-linemen, or even Doak Walker, who was cited by Paul Zimmerman as the least deserving member of the Hall.

Bingaman will have a tough time because of his short career (7 seasons), and Hatchet Jim David because the voters don't want to enshrine an entire defensive backfield. Today's selectors have largely forgotten that Christiansen and Lary were at least as famous for their special teams as their defense (Lary as a punter and Christiansen as a punt returner). David, a six-time Pro Bowler, may have been the greatest pure defender in the secondary.

New York Giants, 1956-60
40-17-3 (.692), 1 championship, 3 title appearances

HOFers (7): Roosevelt Brown, Frank Gifford, Sam Huff, Tom Landry, Vince Lombardi, Andy Robustelli, Emlen Tunnell
Potential snubs: Charlie Conerley, Rosey Grier, Jim Katcavage, Jimmy Patton, Jack Stroud, Ray Wietecha

From 1961-63, the Giants went 33-7-1 (.838) and played in three straight NFL Championship Games, but these five years rate better because they won a title in '56. The notable additions in the '60s are Y.A. Tittle (who is in) and Erich Barnes and Del Shofner (who are not). From this era, the Giants' strongest HOF candidates not yet enshrined are probably Grier, most famous as part of the Rams' Fearsome Foursome, and DB Jimmy Patton, a five-time all-pro with 52 career interceptions.

Landry and Lombardi were assistant coaches for Jim Lee Howell, with Lombardi leaving to become head coach of the Packers in 1959 and Landry to coach the Cowboys in 1960. I don't know whether or not they should really count on the list of Giants Hall of Famers, but I doubt the team would have won a championship without them.

Baltimore Colts, 1957-61
39-23 (.629), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (7): Raymond Berry, Art Donovan, Weeb Ewbank, Gino Marchetti, Lenny Moore, Jim Parker, Johnny Unitas
Potential snubs: Alan Ameche, Gene Lipscomb, Alex Sandusky

It is stunning that a team with all-time greats like Berry, Marchetti, and Unitas only twice finished better than 7-5. Ameche retired after the 1959 season, and the Colts traded Big Daddy Lipscomb the next season. Lipscomb, a two-time Pro Bowl MVP at a time when that meant something, stood at a terrifying 6-6, 282. His drug-related death probably has played a role in his limited support for Hall of Fame enshrinement.

Alex Sandusky is no relation to Jerry Sandusky of Penn State infamy.

Lombardi/Shula Era

I call this the Lombardi/Shula Era because from 1961-73, those coaches accounted for eight of 13 NFL titles, with Shula helming great teams in both Baltimore and Miami. The Packers were clearly the dominant team of this era, but it's a little jarring that they have as many Hall of Famers as the 1967-71 Colts and Cowboys combined. The Colts in particular have an argument that they are not fairly represented in Canton. Conversely, all the great teams of this era have done very well in the selection process, and it may be less that too few Colts are in than that too many players from the other teams have been inducted.

Green Bay Packers, 1962-66
54-13-3 (.771), 3 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (10): Herb Adderley, Willie Davis, Forrest Gregg, Paul Hornung, Henry Jordan, Vince Lombardi, Ray Nitschke, Bart Starr, Jim Taylor, Willie Wood
Potential snubs: Jerry Kramer, Ron Kramer, Dave Robinson

This list of HOFers doesn't even include center Jim Ringo, who was traded to Philadelphia after the 1963 season. Nonetheless, Ringo played on two championship-winning teams and is clearly part of the Lombardi Dynasty. He's excluded from the list due to a quirk of the five-year rule. As successful as this team was, it is probably over-represented in Canton. The '60s Packers have more Hall of Famers than any other team in history, and one of their best players (offensive lineman Jerry Kramer) isn't even enshrined. I'll support his candidacy in the unlikely event he's ever re-nominated, but after that I'd rather start pulling Packers out of the Hall than putting them in. Robinson's case is stronger than Ron Kramer's, maybe stronger than Hornung, Jordan, and Ringo.

Cleveland Browns, 1964-68
49-20-1 (.707), 1 championship, 3 title appearances

HOFers (4): Lou Groza, Gene Hickerson, Leroy Kelly, Paul Warfield
Potential snubs: Erich Barnes, Jim Houston, Walter Johnson, Dick Schafrath

Jim Brown retired after the 1965 season, so he's not listed in this group, although he was critical to its two best seasons. This is one of very few teams not to have a coach or quarterback listed, which speaks to the talent on the rest of the roster. Among the Browns without a bust in the Hall of Fame, Barnes and Schafrath are the clear standouts. Barnes, a star DB with the Giants and Browns, played in six NFL championship games and scored 7 touchdowns on INT returns. Schafrath made six consecutive Pro Bowls and was all-pro from 1963-65.

Kansas City Chiefs, 1966-70
50-17-3 (.736), 1 championship, 2 title appearances

HOFers (7): Bobby Bell, Buck Buchanan, Len Dawson, Willie Lanier, Jan Stenerud, Hank Stram, Emmitt Thomas
Potential snubs: Ed Budde, Curley Culp, Jerry Mays, Johnny Robinson, Otis Taylor, Jim Tyrer

Some Chiefs partisans might feel that Sherrill Headrick and Jim Lynch, who completed the KC linebacking corps, should also be listed as possible snubs. Both were fine players, but neither is a realistic candidate for HOF induction. The most popular candidate certainly is Otis Taylor, but I feel the strongest players omitted are Curley Culp, Johnny Robinson, and Jim Tyrer.

Culp was the first of the great modern nose tackles, and maybe the most important player in KC's Super Bowl IV victory over the Vikings. Culp dominated Minnesota's all-pro center, Mick Tingelhoff, to the extent that many fans believe that game is the only reason Tingelhoff is not in the Hall of Fame. Johnny Robinson was a six-time All-Pro who three times led the league in interceptions or INT return yardage, with two years of double-digit picks and 57 career INTs. Tyrer, maybe the best AFL player not in the Hall of Fame, played in 9 Pro Bowls and AFL All-Star Games. His death, a murder-suicide including his wife, probably has influenced the Hall of Fame voters, though it's not supposed to.

Until the election of Emmitt Thomas to the PFHOF in 2008, Robinson was usually regarded as the best of KC's defensive backs. They were both great players, but if I could choose only one, it would probably be Robinson. I might take Culp and Tyrer ahead of both, though.

Baltimore Colts, 1967-71
53-13-4 (.814), 1 championship, 2 title appearances

HOFers (4): Ted Hendricks, John Mackey, Don Shula, John Unitas
Potential snubs: Mike Curtis, Jimmy Orr, Bob Vogel

The 1968 Colts, like the 2005 USC Trojans, were regarded as the greatest team in history before they had even won a championship. Twenty-point favorites in Super Bowl III, they'd probably have twice as many Hall of Famers if they'd won. Middle linebacker Mike Curtis, for one, would have coasted into Canton simply on the team's winning aura.

Dallas Cowboys, 1967-71
53-16-1 (.764), 1 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (6): Mike Ditka, Bob Hayes, Tom Landry, Bob Lilly, Mel Renfro, Rayfield Wright
Potential snubs: George Andrie, Cornell Green, Chuck Howley, Lee Roy Jordan, Ralph Neely

Roger Staubach didn't become the full-time starter until 1971, so he's not listed in this group. Don't worry, he'll show up later on. As I explained in the 1945-49 Rams entry, I'm only listing players and coaches, so Tex Schramm doesn't count toward their total.

I'm on record as strongly supporting Howley's case for induction. The others listed were terrific players, but probably not at the same level.

Oakland Raiders, 1967-71
53-12-5 (.793), no championships, 1 title appearance

HOFers (7): Fred Biletnikoff, George Blanda, Willie Brown, John Madden, Jim Otto, Art Shell, Gene Upshaw
Potential snubs: Dan Conners, Daryle Lamonica

That's a lot of Hall of Famers for a team with no rings. Biletnikoff, Brown, Madden, Shell, and Upshaw did eventually win a Super Bowl with the '76 Raiders.

Miami Dolphins, 1970-74
57-12-1 (.821), 2 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (7): Nick Buoniconti, Larry Csonka, Bob Griese, Jim Langer, Larry Little, Don Shula, Paul Warfield
Potential snubs: Dick Anderson, Norm Evans, Bob Kuechenberg, Jake Scott, Bill Stanfill

This is an underrated dynasty, one that made three straight Super Bowls and had two of the greatest teams ever, the undefeated 1972 Dolphins and the 12-2 '73 squad they all swear was even better. Miami's offense is already well-represented in Canton, with five Hall of Famers, but the great No-Name Defense is just Buoniconti. For some reason, the selectors don't seem to appreciate strong safeties. I'd like to see Dick Anderson, the 1971 Defensive Player of the Year, join his teammates in the Hall.

The End of Dynasties

The Steel Curtain has 10 Hall of Famers. Since then, no team has more than five. There are still dynasties ... but not in the Hall of Fame. The 1970s Raiders, who went an appalling 1-5 in AFC Championship Games, have twice as many HOFers as the Raiders of the early '80s, who won two Super Bowls. The Steelers of the '70s have as many HOFers as the '80s Niners and Redskins combined. Some of that is an appropriate reaction to a changing game, but mostly it's over-inclusion of older players and a too-high bar for recent ones.

We all fall prey to this, but the voters haven't adjusted to expansion, electing more players to reflect the larger league. The third-best cornerback in a 28-team league is a better player than the third-best CB from a 12-team league in the 1950s, and sometimes that's hard to wrap our heads around. A lot of the players from the '80s and '90s whom we think of as borderline would have been first-ballot Hall of Famers if they started their careers a decade or so earlier.

Oakland Raiders, 1973-77
56-13-1 (.807), 1 championships, 1 title appearances

HOFers (8): Fred Biletnikoff, George Blanda, Willie Brown, Dave Casper, Ted Hendricks, John Madden, Art Shell, Gene Upshaw
Potential snubs: Cliff Branch, Ray Guy, Ken Stabler, Jack Tatum

I've written in the past about Branch and Stabler. Tatum was a good player, but not really a legitimate Hall of Fame possibility. That leaves Ray Guy, who is widely regarded as the greatest punter in history. But good punting is so misunderstood, and I'm not convinced Guy was the nonpareil many believe. Consider:

* Ray Guy is tied for 78th all-time in punting average. Even at the time of his retirement, he only ranked 16th.
* Guy led the NFL in punting average three times. So did Horace Gillom, Rohn Stark, and Greg Montgomery.
* Guy was famous for his hang time, but he was also criticized as a "middle-of-the-end-zone" punter who kicked too many touchbacks.

I don't dispute that Guy was a great punter, I'm just not convinced he belongs in the Hall of Fame. I'd rather recognize some of the great Raiders from the Super Bowl XV and XVIII teams than add more from this era, which already has a bloated 8:1 ratio of busts to rings.

Minnesota Vikings, 1973-77
54-15-1 (.779), no championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (6): Carl Eller, Bud Grant, Paul Krause, Alan Page, Fran Tarkenton, Ron Yary
Potential snubs: Matt Blair, Chuck Foreman, John Gilliam, Jim Marshall, Mick Tingelhoff

Tingelhoff is by far the most compelling player in this group. It amazes me that he's still not in.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 1975-79
57-17 (.770), 3 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (10): Mel Blount, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Greene, Jack Ham, Franco Harris, Jack Lambert, Chuck Noll, John Stallworth, Lynn Swann, Mike Webster
Potential snubs: L.C. Greenwood, Donnie Shell

This was a great team, but it already has 10 Hall of Famers. Lynn Swann is sometimes cited as the worst player in the Hall of Fame. Fans will never agree on Swann. Some say he was the most graceful receiver ever, a clutch performer who should have been a first-ballot HOFer based on quality, not quantity. Other fans believe his very short career and pedestrian regular-season statistics count for more than his performance in a handful of postseason games. Certainly he and Stallworth are the weakest HOFers from this great dynasty. It's curious that the famous Steel Curtain has more offensive HOFers (5) than defensive (4). Personally, I'd trade both receivers to get Donnie Shell inducted.

Former Steeler DB Tony Dungy might make the Hall of Fame as a coach.

Dallas Cowboys, 1975-79
56-18 (.757), 1 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (5): Tony Dorsett, Tom Landry, Roger Staubach, Randy White, Rayfield Wright
Potential snubs: Cliff Harris, Too Tall Jones, Harvey Martin, Ralph Neely, Drew Pearson

From 1966-85, the Cowboys never had a losing season. They were 208-79-2 (.723), played in 12 conference championship games, and won two Super Bowls. These five years fall in the heart of that success, and all the players listed above played on a lot of winning teams. The weakest Hall of Fame candidate probably is Pearson, with Harris and Neely the strongest. Paul Zimmerman called Harris "the first and the best of the killer free safeties" and named Harris as one of three safeties on his All-Century Team.

35. Los Angeles Rams, 1975-79
53-20-1 (.723), no championships, 1 title appearance

HOFers (3): Tom Mack, Jackie Slater, Jack Youngblood
Potential snubs: Chuck Knox, Harold Jackson, Isiah Robertson, Rich Saul

Two offensive linemen and a defensive lineman. Where are the big names, the glamor positions? There's Harold Jackson, whom I do believe should be in the Hall of Fame, but he was gone by the time the Rams played in Super Bowl XIV. Lawrence McCutcheon was a good running back, but no one would suggest him as a Hall of Famer, and anyway he was pretty much done after '77. In the Super Bowl year, McCutcheon rushed for 243 yards, with a 3.3 average and no touchdowns. Let's not even talk about Vince Ferragamo and Pat Haden.

Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, 1980-84
49-24 (.671), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (4): Marcus Allen, Ted Hendricks, Howie Long, Art Shell
Potential snubs: Lyle Alzado, Cliff Branch, Todd Christensen, Tom Flores, Ray Guy, Lester Hayes

Mike Haynes was still with the Patriots for most of this time, and only played 21 regular-season games with the Raiders during these five years. Several of the possible snubs listed above, we've already discussed, and Alzado is not a strong candidate. Flores probably has almost as strong a résumé as Hall of Fame coaches Weeb Ewbank and John Madden, but those are borderline calls, too. Christensen and Hayes, however, I think both have very reasonable cases.

Todd Christensen led the NFL in receptions twice. He had more 90-catch seasons (2) than Kellen Winslow, more 80-catch seasons (4-3), more 900-yard seasons (3-2). He didn't play long and wasn't a great blocker, but he was an impact player and a legit tight end, not just a glorified wide receiver. In 1980, Hayes intercepted 13 passes and won Defensive Player of the Year. Two other years, he led the NFL in INT return TDs. Between the two, I lean more towards Christensen, but both are worthy at least of serious consideration.

I didn't forget about Jim Plunkett, he's just not a strong candidate for the Hall. The Raiders alone have three better QBs who are not in Canton (Lamonica, Stabler, Gannon).

San Francisco 49ers, 1981-85
51-22 (.699), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (4): Fred Dean, Ronnie Lott, Joe Montana, Bill Walsh
Potential snubs: Roger Craig, Randy Cross, Keith Fahnhorst

Here's a conundrum. The wildly successful 49ers of the 1980s have very few Hall of Famers, relative to other great teams. They have a 1:1 ratio of HOFers to Super Bowls. The '70s Steelers had a 5:2 ratio. The '70s Raiders had a 8:1 ratio. Even the '80s Raiders had a 2:1 ratio. How can the 1980s Raiders have as many Hall of Famers as the 1980s 49ers? Obviously, the Niners are getting hosed.

So having established that, who are the great 49ers being unfairly omitted from Canton? I think the strongest candidates are Craig and Cross, and even they have very questionable credentials. How did this team excel with so few Hall of Fame-caliber players?

1. The Hall of Famers they did have were among the best ever. Bill Walsh and Weeb Ewbank are both in the Hall of Fame, but there's no comparison between them. Same thing for Joe Montana and Jim Kelly, or Ronnie Lott and Dick LeBeau. Guys like Walsh and Montana are probably worth two Hall of Famers.

2. San Francisco had a lot of good players, but not a lot of great players. There are plenty of guys whose names never get mentioned in the same sentence as the word Canton, but who were good players that played important roles in the team's success: Dwight Clark, Dwight Hicks, Jack Reynolds, Keena Turner, Eric Wright, etc.

3. This team overachieved in the early '80s. The 49ers went 6-10 in 1980 and 3-6 in 1982. In between, they won Super Bowl XVI. Additions like Roger Craig and Wendell Tyler (1983), Jerry Rice (1985), and Charles Haley (1986) solidified the team into a true dynasty later in the decade.

Miami Dolphins, 1981-85
56-16-1 (.774), no championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (3): Dan Marino, Don Shula, Dwight Stephenson
Potential snubs: Bob Baumhower, Bob Kuechenberg

Three Hall of Famers seems about right for this team, especially when they include the winningest coach of all time, a man who broke every career passing record, and perhaps the finest center in history.

Washington Redskins, 1982-86
55-18 (.753), 1 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (5): Joe Gibbs, Darrell Green, Russ Grimm, Art Monk, John Riggins
Potential snubs: Dave Butz, Joe Jacoby, Dexter Manley, Charles Mann, Mark Moseley

After long waits for Grimm and Monk, plus Green's 20-year career, this team finally seems fairly represented in Canton. The one remaining guy I might argue for is monstrous left tackle Joe Jacoby, though I do believe the defensive ends, Manley and Mann, are both badly underrated. Manley had more sacks than HOF contemporaries Howie Long, Lee Roy Selmon, and Andre Tippett. Mann made four Pro Bowls, and had double-digit sacks two other years, including 14.5 in 1985. He played in four Super Bowls, three with Washington and one with the 49ers.

The NFC Era

Many of the players and coaches from these teams haven't been on the Hall of Fame ballot very long, and others aren't even on the ballot at all yet. What jumps out at me most is what I mentioned at the beginning of this piece: the team of this era with the most Hall of Famers is the Buffalo Bills, who lost four straight Super Bowls, three of them badly. The trend of the early '80s continues, as well: great teams now have 2-5 HOFers, compared to 4-10 for the dynasties of the '50s, '60s, and '70s.

Chicago Bears, 1984-88
62-17 (.785), 1 championship, 1 title appearance

HOFers (4): Richard Dent, Dan Hampton, Walter Payton, Mike Singletary
Potential snubs: Jimbo Covert, Jay Hilgenberg, Wilber Marshall, Steve McMichael

Head coach Mike Ditka, of course, is also in the Hall of Fame. Although Ditka was enshrined as a player, his success as a coach probably is part of the reason Ditka was the first tight end elected, preceding John Mackey.

Covert and Marshall are legit candidates, but the most compelling and interesting case, in my mind, is defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan, who left Chicago after the '85 Super Bowl to become head coach of the Eagles. Ryan was the architect of the famous 46 defense, with a coaching tree among the best in the game today: Jeff Fisher, Leslie Frazier, Ron Rivera, Rex Ryan (obviously), and Jim Schwartz. The voters have shown no interest in enshrining coaches with limited success as HCs, but Ryan was arguably the most important individual on the team that won Super Bowl XX.

San Francisco 49ers, 1986-90
61-17-1 (.778), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (4): Ronnie Lott, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, Bill Walsh
Potential snubs: Harris Barton, Michael Carter, Roger Craig, Randy Cross, Charles Haley

Same problem here as 1981-85. Great team, multiple rings, four brilliant Hall of Famers and not a lot left over. Craig and the offensive linemen probably were the best of the snubs, though Haley has received considerably more support in the HOF balloting. He has five rings, and he had one great season, but for a guy who was basically a pass rusher, he's not really a standout other than because he played on great teams.

Haley is 25th all-time in sacks (100.5), even though they didn't become an official statistic until 1982 and he played in the Golden Age of pass rushing. Even among his contemporaries, Haley ranks about 15th in career sacks, behind guys like Jim Jeffcoat (102.5), Trace Armstrong (106.0), Greg Townsend (109.5), Sean Jones (113.0), and Clyde Simmons (121.5). Kevin Greene isn't in the HOF, and he had 160 sacks. I will grant that Haley, who had some injury issues, was better in his prime than, say, Jim Jeffcoat. But he's only a Hall of Fame nominee because he played for five Super Bowl winners, and playing on the same teams as Joe Montana and Emmitt Smith should not be enough to earn Hall of Fame induction.

New York Giants, 1986-90
55-24 (.696), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (2): Harry Carson, Lawrence Taylor
Potential snubs: Ottis Anderson, Mark Bavaro, Bart Oates, Bill Parcells, Phil Simms

Former Giants defensive coordinator Bill Belichick is very likely a Hall of Famer when his head coaching career with the Patriots is over, and that probably should count as a third HOFer for the Giants, but it's stunning how few serious candidates for Canton this great team had. I guess Bavaro and Parcells are my favorites.

Washington Redskins, 1987-91
52-27 (.658), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (4): Joe Gibbs, Darrell Green, Russ Grimm, Art Monk
Potential snubs: Gary Clark, Joe Jacoby, Jim Lachey, Charles Mann, Wilber Marshall

The only one of these players who might have a realistic shot at induction is Jacoby, who was a dominant tackle and an All-Decade selection in the 1980s. Washington from 1982-91 won three Super Bowls with three different QBs and three different running backs. The offensive line, the famous Hogs, was the unifying element of those offenses. Ever since he went on the ballot, I've been surprised at the lack of support for Jacoby, who in his prime was regarded as an elite tackle. The Dolphins, Raiders, and Rams of the '70s all have more offensive linemen in the Hall of Fame than the Hogs. Were those lines more important to their teams than Washington's?

Other than Jacoby, the strongest candidates as I see them are Gary Clark and Wilber Marshall, in that order. Brian Mitchell is not listed because he didn't begin his career until 1990.

Buffalo Bills, 1989-93
58-22 (.725), 0 championships, 4 title appearances

HOFers (5): Jim Kelly, Marv Levy, James Lofton, Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas
Potential snubs: Cornelius Bennett, Kent Hull, Andre Reed, Steve Tasker

The team that inspired this exercise. Bennett, Hull, Reed, and Tasker were all great players, but doesn't it seem like we're overrating this team? The Bills dominated the AFC at a time when the NFC Championship Game was regarded as the "true" Super Bowl.

Dallas Cowboys, 1991-95
60-20 (.750), 3 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers (3): Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, Emmitt Smith
Potential snubs: Kevin Gogan, Charles Haley, Jimmy Johnson, Daryl Johnston, Nate Newton, Jay Novacek, Mark Stepnoski, Norv Turner, Erik Williams, Darren Woodson

Guard Larry Allen is a surefire Hall of Famer when he becomes eligible, but he doesn't qualify for this timeframe because his pro career began in 1994, and he only played on one of the Cowboys' three Super Bowl teams. Similarly, Deion Sanders didn't come to Dallas until '95, and wasn't a meaningful part of the Cowboy Dynasty.

Fullback became primarily a blocking position in the 1980s, and since then, no fullbacks have been elected to the Hall of Fame. In some ways that makes sense, because modern fullbacks are part-time players who have limited impact even when they're on the field. But Moose Johnston seldom went to the sidelines, and played a vital role in Emmitt Smith's success. For all we talk about Emmitt's great offensive line, none of the linemen from his early career are headed to Canton. Stepnoski probably has the strongest case, but to my way of thinking, Johnston — the unquestioned king of fullbacks in the '90s — was as important to the team's success as any of them.

I could also be persuaded to support Darren Woodson, though he's a borderline candidate in my mind. Contemporary strong safeties LeRoy Butler and Steve Atwater were just as good, and I'd vote for both of them before Woodson. On the other hand, how does a team win three Super Bowls without any elite defensive players?

San Francisco 49ers, 1992-96
60-20 (.750), 1 championship, 1 title appearances

HOFers (2): Jerry Rice, Steve Young
Potential snubs: Harris Barton, George Seifert, Ricky Watters, Bryant Young

Ricky Watters was overshadowed by Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, and Terrell Davis. He's never gotten enough credit. Pro Football Reference lists the most comparable players to Watters as: Jim Brown, Tony Dorsett, Tiki Barber, Roger Craig, Eric Dickerson, Curtis Martin, Lenny Moore, Fred Taylor, Barry Sanders, and John L. Williams. That's six Hall of Famers, a famous snub, two guys who aren't eligible yet, and John L. Williams.

Watters is among the top-20 all-time in rushing yards, rushing TDs, and yards from scrimmage. Watters was a good ball-carrier who had six 1,000-yard rushing seasons, but he was also a valuable receiver who gained over 300 receiving yards every year until his final season, when he got injured and only played five games. Watters had more career receptions than Brian Westbrook, Edgerrin James, or Charlie Garner. He was never the best RB in the league, but like Tony Dorsett, Curtis Martin, and John Riggins, he was near the top for a decade.

Green Bay Packers, 1994-98
57-23 (.713), 1 championship, 2 title appearances

HOFers (1): Reggie White
Potential HOFers: LeRoy Butler, Brett Favre, Mike Holmgren

Brett Favre obviously will be a Hall of Famer. I've been disappointed at how little interest the voters have shown in Butler, the dominant strong safety of his era and a first-team selection on the All-Decade Team of the 1990s. I hope he'll get in one day, though it doesn't seem likely. Holmgren also will be a long shot, though GM Ron Wolf might have a chance in the right year.

The 2000s

Many of the key components of these teams are not eligible for the Hall of Fame yet, so I've dropped the "HOF" column from the chart. The 1996-00 Broncos and 2004-08 Steelers have identical regular-season and postseason records, but Pittsburgh easily has the stronger dynasty, going 33-15 (.688) from 2009-11 and making another Super Bowl. The Broncos largely fell apart after John Elway retired and Terrell Davis got hurt.

Denver Broncos, 1996-00
56-24 (.700), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers (2): John Elway, Shannon Sharpe
Potential HOFers: Steve Atwater, Terrell Davis, Tom Nalen, Trevor Pryce, Mike Shanahan, Rod Smith

Gary Zimmerman retired following the 1997 season, so he doesn't really fit in this group even though he played for the Broncos for five seasons. I'd like to see Atwater, Davis, and Pryce enshrined in the PFHOF. Pryce played through 2010 and isn't eligible yet — though if he ever actually gets in, I will buy a hat and eat it. I'm hopeful (though not optimistic) that the voters will show more respect to Davis now that he's not competing with Marshall Faulk and Curtis Martin on the same ballot.

St. Louis Rams, 1999-03
56-24 (.700), 1 championship, 2 title appearances

HOFers (1): Marshall Faulk
Potential HOFers: Isaac Bruce, London Fletcher, Torry Holt, Orlando Pace, Kurt Warner, Aeneas Williams

Given how briefly this team was successful, it is stunning that it realistically could end up with seven Hall of Famers, more than anyone since the Steel Curtain. The issue is largely about timing and movement. Four of these players had some of their best years for others teams: Faulk (Colts), Fletcher (Washington), Warner and Williams (Cardinals). Bruce had some of his best seasons in the mid-90s, when the Rams were terrible, while Holt's best seasons came mostly after the others were gone or past their primes.

Other than Faulk, all these players are borderline HOFers, but they all should be reasonably strong candidates. Warner, who might be the weakest of the bunch — he only played 12 games or more in a season five times — is probably the only one who will go in on the first ballot.

New England Patriots, 2001-05
58-22 (.725), 3 championships, 3 title appearances

HOFers: none so far
Potential HOFers: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Rodney Harrison, Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Adam Vinatieri

From this group, Belichick, Brady, and Seymour are all likely to cruise into Canton. I would also support Harrison and Vinatieri, though they'll have a harder time. The standout linebackers (Tedy Bruschi, Willie McGinest, Mike Vrabel) were very good, but none of them has a Hall of Fame résumé. I suspect Bruschi will garner the most support, but to me, he was about the 8th-best ILB of his generation (Ray Lewis, Zach Thomas, Brian Urlacher, London Fletcher, James Farrior, Keith Brooking, Donnie Edwards, Al Wilson), more good than exceptional.

It will be interesting to see how the voters treat Vinatieri. Recognition for special teams is at an all-time low, and Vinatieri's stats are not exceptional. If he gets in, it will be through his reputation as a big-game kicker and clutch performer. In addition to his famous field goals in the Tuck Rule game and Super Bowl XXXVI, Vinatieri holds the career record for postseason field goals, and he's the only player I've ever seen who unmistakably performed better when the stakes were highest. In the 2010-11 playoffs, Vinatieri kicked the longest field goal he'd made in two years, giving the Colts a 16-14 lead with :53 left. Vinatieri played in five Super Bowls, winning four of them.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 2004-08
56-24 (.700), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers: Dick LeBeau
Potential HOFers: Bill Cowher, Alan Faneca, James Farrior, Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, Joey Porter, Aaron Smith, Hines Ward

Most of these guys probably will not get much support in the Hall of Fame voting, but I'm trying to be inclusive. It's too early to make any informed guesses about Big Ben, but I suspect Faneca, Polamalu, Ward, and one of the defensive linemen — most likely Smith — will eventually be inducted. Dick LeBeau is technically in the Hall of Fame as a cornerback for the 1960s Lions, but everyone knows his election was based at least partly on his reign as defensive coordinator in Pittsburgh.

Jerome Bettis retired in 2005 and is not part of this era of Steeler football. His last great season was 1997.

Indianapolis Colts, 2005-09
65-15 (.813), 1 championship, 2 title appearances

HOFers: none so far
Potential HOFers: Tony Dungy, Dwight Freeney, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning, Robert Mathis, Jeff Saturday, Adam Vinatieri, Reggie Wayne

Edgerrin James also has an outside shot at Hall of Fame induction, but '05 was his last year with the team, so he doesn't really fit in this group. James' only Super Bowl appearance, oddly enough, came with the Arizona Cardinals. Among the Colts who are listed, Manning and Harrison obviously will be elected. Mathis will need a very strong future in order to garner any momentum in the voting, and probably has the weakest case among the players listed.

I know most people still think of Vinatieri mostly as a Patriot, but he's now played six seasons with the Colts, including Super Bowl XLI. When Vinatieri tied the single-game postseason record for field goals (5), he did so as a Colt. Indianapolis is an important part of his legacy.

New England Patriots, 2007-11
64-16 (.800), no championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers: none so far
Potential HOFers: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Vince Wilfork

Apart from those already mentioned in the 2001-05 group, it is really too early to guess at which of these players will have a good shot at Canton. The exception is Randy Moss, who built a Hall-worthy legacy with the Vikings prior to his resurgence with the Patriots in '07. The late Junior Seau, who played for the Pats from 2006-09, didn't appear in enough games to qualify for this list, but he's obviously a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

New York Giants, 2007-11
49-31 (.613), 2 championships, 2 title appearances

HOFers: none so far
Potential HOFers: too early to tell

The 2007-11 Patriots at least have a long-standing dynasty to build on. Really, any speculation on the Giants is premature at this point. If the plane went down in preseason, none of them have done enough so far to be strong candidates for induction.

Conclusions

* projected

What jumps out is that older teams (basically everything before the '80s) have a lot of Hall of Famers, and the best teams since have comparatively few, even allowing for future inductions. Maybe I'm being naïve, but I see that trend reversing itself somewhat in the next 10 or 20 years. The 2005-09 Colts easily could get Tony Dungy, Dwight Freeney, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning, Jeff Saturday, and Adam Vinatieri into Canton.

Anyway, I really believe recent teams may finally break the "five-HOFer" barrier, but the larger issue is that older teams appear to have a couple more busts in Canton than they might deserve, while contemporary teams seem under-represented. How can the '80s Niners, '90s Cowboys, and three-time champion Joe Gibbs Dynasty combine for fewer Hall of Famers (13) than the 1973-77 Raiders and Vikings (14), who won a combined 1 Super Bowl?

Modern dynasties have just over half as many players at each position (about 60%), compared to their pre-1980 counterparts. The most notable exceptions are quarterback, offensive line, and special teams. Today's dynasties — and by "today" I really mean the last 30 years or so — get their QBs into Canton almost as often as earlier dynasties; the drop-off is less significant at that position (about 80%). It is far more significant among offensive linemen and special teamers. The pre-1980 teams enshrined almost three times as many o-linemen, and infinitely more special teamers (if Adam Vinatieri is not elected).

Does this mean the voters used to elect too many undeserving blockers and specialists, or does it mean today's voters are too stingy, or is it simply a fair and just reflection of a changing game? It seems clear to me that the voters today are electing too few players at these positions. They have made what seems to be a deliberate choice to ignore special teams, including kick return contributions from position players. As far as offensive linemen, today's voters simply don't understand line play, so they don't really know who's any good.

Consider Randy Cross, Joe Jacoby, Bob Kuechenberg, and Mark Stepnoski. All were multiple all-pros, and none would be particularly controversial selections to the Hall. Plenty of linemen still get in, just not from the top teams. The most important factor in an offensive lineman's Hall of Fame chances is his draft position. First-round draft choices, and especially top-10 choices, get voted to the Pro Bowl every year if they're even average, and the selectors mostly look at Pro Bowls when they evaluate o-linemen.

I came into this project thinking I'd find out which teams seemed to have a few extra Hall of Famers, or not quite as many as you'd expect relative to their accomplishments. It turns out that it's less about teams than it is the entire expansion era, almost exactly matched up with players and coaches who still appear on the regular ballot rather than the Seniors list.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:27 AM | Comments (0)

July 9, 2012

What Truly Makes Roger Federer Great

Yes, we all know about Roger Federer's 17 Slams, his regaining of the No. 1 ranking, and his equaling of the 286-week record at No. 1 held previously by Pete Sampras. Congratulations to the great Swiss player but in this article, I will neither repeat his astonishing statistics nor reload the "bravo" tributes and comments that newswires have been overloaded with since his moment of victory at Wimbledon. I will simply attempt to point to a certain aspect of Federer as a tennis player that I believe to be non-existent in any other player, and yet seems to mysteriously remain undervalued, if not obscure, to most so-called tennis experts.

Obviously his forehand, his physical shape, the variety of his shots, and his serve, only to mention a few, are all putative qualities of Federer. I would like to go a little further than that in this article. Let's take into account Federer's Sunday's final match against Andy Murray, along with his 2009 Wimbledon final match against Andy Roddick. The comparative analysis of these finals posits two relatively overlooked qualities of Federer: his intelligence and awareness on the court.

Let's rewind the clock back to three years ago to that final between Federer and Roddick.

In 2009, in the finals against Roddick, Federer began the match playing aggressively, looking to advance to the net at every opportunity. Roddick was focused from the start and was able to withstand the barrage of attacks from Federer. Roddick took many people by surprise by producing some sizzling passing shots to counter his opponent's early aggressive tennis. As the set advanced, we witnessed Federer becoming more and more intimidated by Roddick's accurate passing shots. He began to stay at the baseline and to try to dictate the rally with aggressive ground strokes. On the other hand, Roddick got more confident as the set went on.

At 6-5 on Federer's serve, he hit an "out-of-this-world" forehand crosscourt winner, and then followed it later in that same game with a terrific backhand down-the-line drive on set point to win it, 7-5. The Swiss needed to change his tactics before it was too late. Well, he did more than that.

Federer did not simply adjust his game after the first set. He completely changed his tactic and outlook. He took a 180-degree turn from his initial plan at the start of the match and went to an exclusively defensive format. He ceased venturing to the net unless forced to do so, thus taking targets away from Roddick. He made each point last longer, giving Roddick plenty of floaters and low-speed slices in order to force him to hit several great shots to win points. He placed himself further behind the baseline with the intention of running every ball down, prolonging the time of the rallies and the games, including plenty of off-speed, loopy shots that gave him ample time to come back to the middle of the court if he was ever pushed to the corners.

In short, after the first set, Federer basically took a page out of a classic clay court retrieving game and applied it to the grass of Wimbledon. While it is true that the second set could have gone either way (Roddick did have four set points, one of which was an easy forehand volley that he missed), Federer was able to give himself a chance to level the playing field and have a tangible shot at winning the second set. After he won it in a tiebreaker, the match was not only leveled on the scoreboard, but also on the court. Helped by a superb serving performance — he hit his 50th ace to win the epic match at the end of four hours of 16 minutes of battle — Federer eventually prevailed over Roddick, 16-14, in the fifth set, while playing defensively for the remainder of the match.

Now, let's fast-forward the clock to Sunday's 2012 final between Federer and Murray.

Murray began the match with an aggressive approach, and Federer began with an unusual amount of errors (including after he survived the initial break and came back on serve). Federer was not particularly playing defensive, but Murray kept launching so many aggressive shots in succession that all Federer could do was to retrieve balls the best that he could for the first several games of the match. He did eventually break back, but Murray's early form had him unsettled. The unforced errors still kept coming and he lost the first set, 6-4.

To circumvent the problem, Federer did the reverse of what he did in 2009. To counter Murray's initiative to dictate the points, he began to "out-attack" Murray with an even more aggressive game with the intention to cut the points short. Although he was not the better player in the second set, Federer did what was working best for him: build the points around coming to the net. He came to the net 26 times in the second set (vs. 15 in the first) and won twice more points approaching the new (total: 22) than in the first.

Relentlessly staying loyal to his modified plan, Federer began to further embellish it by adding the "chip-and-charge" and progressively coming to the net on second-serve returns in the third set during which he was the better player. Once he won the third set, there was no doubt that he would do more of what he did in the second and third sets. In the fourth set, he came to the net 16 times and won 14!

Overall, in the last three sets, the approaches to the net included slice approach shots, swing volleys, chip-and-charge returns, drop shot that he followed up to the net, wide balls that he knew would put Murray on the run, and last but not the least, several serve-and-volley attempts of which he only lost one point. This time, Federer won the title by changing his game to total offense, in the reverse manner of what he did in 2009, and taking a page out of '70s and '80s grass court tennis, (minus the "continuous" serve-and-volley). It is only fitting that he celebrated the winning point by lifting his arms and immediately falling to his knees at the net after watching yet another passing shot attempt by Murray sail long.

It is an important asset for a top-level tennis player to have the ability to insert variety to his or her game. Although not many do, there are more than a few players who possess the ability to use plenty of variety on their game, including Murray in the finals on Sunday. These few players are already quite distinguished and in a class of their own. However, it is another thing to be able to combine the intelligence and the on-court awareness with that variety in order to modify strategies and produce the result desired. Some of these distinguished players will not do it either because they are still lacking courage to do it, or because they don't feel comfortable doing it in the course of match, or simply because they the thought does not occur to them.

But the one that can dare to undertake such adjustment and actually follow through with it successfully is the kind of sui generis player who can comfortably claim to have "a Plan A" to fall back to in case the "other Plan A" that is already in use is not functioning well. Plan B is not an option for this type of player. Federer in 2009 against Roddick, as well as on Sunday against Murray, simply went from one Plan A to another.

I believe Federer's skill to have more than one Plan A along with the presence of mind to know intrinsically when to shift at will from one Plan A to the next is one of the primordial elements of Federer's success. While other players strive during their whole careers to improve up weaker defensive (or offensive) parts of their games to match their stronger side, and practice for years their weaker shots to complement their stronger ones, Federer has gone past this stage early in his career. Furthermore, he has not only reached the next stage that I have explained above — the combination of intelligence and variety resulting in multiple Plan As — but he has excelled in that area, the one that other players in the game of tennis never even get to experience.

* * *

With the Olympic's coming up, will you be placing a bet on the tennis? If you would like to get all of the latest betting odds, make sure you head to http://www.bwin.com today and check out their fantastic odds!

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 7:05 PM | Comments (2)

The Home Run Derby and Second Half

The Major League Baseball Home Run Derby Monday night has no value in and of itself. There may be some folks over the age of 10 who enjoy the spectacle, and the Kansas City and MLB baseball business interests will surely enjoy the gate take and television coverage. But as a sporting event, it holds no competitive value whatsoever.

Actually, that's not quite right. The Derby, while providing no real gain, actually does have some value. It just happens to be the negative value of participants' performance in the second half of the season tailing off.

1998 Jim Thome
Before the Derby: .326 average with 23 homers in 83 games
After the Derby: .221 average with 7 homers in just 40 games

2003 Jim Edmonds
Before the Derby: .303 average with 28 homers in 88 games
After the Derby: .214 average with 11 homers in 49 games

2011 Jose Bautista
Before the Derby: .334 average with 31 homers in 84 games
After the Derby: .257 average with 12 homers in 65 games

Of course, those are just anecdotal examples of a largely-held belief. For every one of those, you can find a 2006 Ryan Howard, who not only topped his 30 first-half homers with 31 in the second half, he also raised his average from .278 in the first half to .355 in the second.

In order to really test the theory of Derby-as-second-half-performance-killer, we need to step out of the anecdotal and see what the data really shows. To do this, I broke down every participant in every Home Run Derby since 1997. That came up to a total of 126 combined player seasons by 78 different players. The list includes the famous (Ken Griffey, Jr., David Ortiz), the infamous (Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire), and the obscure (John Jaha).

One of the first things that stood out was that of the 126, only eight played fewer than 50 games in the second half and only 15 played fewer than 60. That would seem to be a pretty good indication that the Home Run Derby isn't highly correlated with DL-causing injuries.

As for performance, the story starts tilting against the Derby participants:

* 83 of the 126 saw their batting average decrease post-Derby.

* 86 saw their slugging percentage drop.

* 85 saw their home run rate decrease.

* 77 saw their strikeout rate increase

* 70 saw their strikeout-to-walk ratio increase.

There were two sub groups I wanted to take a more specific look at: those players who actually hit a lot of home runs at the Derby vs. those who didn't, and the players older than 30.

* There have been 35 guys since 1997 who have combined to hit 15 or more home runs during the Derby (counting "swing offs"). Of those, 23 saw a batting average decrease and 23 saw a slugging percentage decrease, so basically the same rate as the overall population of Derby participants.

* Of the 53 participants age 30 or older, 32 saw an average decrease and 33 saw a slugging percentage drop. That's actually a slightly better rate than the overall population.

Pretty much any way I sliced the data, the same results showed up: About two thirds of the people involved in the Derby in any given year regressed off their first half performance in the second half.

The next question that popped into my head was whether that was normal for the entire baseball world, not just the Derby participants. But a quick check into MLB-wide splits showed that total batting averages actually increase by a few points in the second half in four of the past five seasons.

So if it's not a league-wide thing, can we really blame the Derby for a higher rate of performance fall-off? The data certainly seems to suggest there's something there. And it's not just 35-year-old Carlos Beltran or whichever of the contestants goes off for 25 or more combined homers tonight that have to worry.

Bautista felt it last year. Will it happen to him again? How about Andrew McCutchen, or Robinson Cano, or newcomer Mark Trumbo? Nobody knows for sure. But chances are of Monday night's eight competitors, six are in for tough few months ahead.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 1:14 PM | Comments (0)

July 6, 2012

D-Train's Derailment, and Others'

How strange and sad it is, now and over a lifetime of watching and loving the game, that as often as not the players who are the most fun to watch become the players whose careers derail soon enough after they get their first tastes of success. Dontrelle Willis is the latest such casualty. The sad part is that the D-Train won't be the last, even if he might take comfort in knowing he wasn't even close to the first.

It's no contest. Willis was the most fun pitcher to watch of his time. The left-hander had about as many windups as Juan Marichal; his high leg kick was six parts Marichal and half a dozen parts Vida Blue; the skyward glance harked to Fernando Valenzuela, even if Willis looked only a little less as though enjoying a private joke with God; the turning of his back to the hitter referenced Luis Tiant; the cheerful insanity of his mound demeanor, rolling all the foregoing into one animated package, telegraphed Mark (The Bird) Fidrych, even if Willis never thought of hand-manicuring the mound dirt or giving the baseball a pep talk before delivering.

But it wasn't fun to watch the 2003 National League Rookie of the Year and the second-place Cy Young Award finisher of 2005 devolve into a mess wracked by ... who knew? As a Rookie of the Year, Willis shook off a few struggles to help throttle the Yankees in the World Series, with a spotless relief turn. After the Florida Marlins shipped him to the Detroit Tigers, following a couple of seasons in which his walk rates (always a small alarm) climbed while his strikeout rates (always another small alarm) tapered (and the Marlins trying to alter his motion didn't help, either), the D-Train went from a happy-go-lucky lancer who managed to mask his hittability to a subway off the rails.

He was diagnosed with an anxiety disorder. He cracked and then fell from the Tigers' starting rotation. They shipped him to Arizona and he walked his way (issuing about a walk per inning for openers) out of there. The Giants kicked his tires and took a flyer and couldn't fix him with eight relief appearances in their farm system. The Reds took a flyer and had reason for hope when Willis looked close enough to his old self at Louisville (AAA): a 2.63 ERA and a mere 20 passes in almost 76 innings. They called him up before the 2011 All-Star Break.

They had even more cause for hope: Willis nailed eight quality starts (they're defined as a six-inning or better outing with three or less runs surrendered, formally) in his first 10 assignments, including and especially a turn against the Rockies in which he really looked like his old self: 10 punchouts on a August 9 start. But struggling to pitch without much run support, Willis really got done in against the Cubs in mid-September. He hadn't won a game yet, but, until September 12, he had six no-decisions in which five were one-run games either way, and in his 5 losses, four were one-run outcomes while he surrendered 4 runs only twice through the entire span. Then the Cubs lit him up for 8 runs in three and a third, with two of the runs surrendered by his relief, Jared Burton.

He rebounded to beat the Pirates on September 25, but the Reds let him go to free agency. The Phillies tried a flyer, thinking Willis' lingering success against left-handed hitters might make him a situational relief asset, but he got murdered in three spring gigs and released post haste. The Orioles took a flyer after that, but Willis grew frustrated with the team's plan to make him a situational reliever likewise, leaving the club until general manager Dan Duquette agreed to let Willis go to their extended spring training in Sarasota to round back into starting shape. He made it back into the Oriole system last month and got murdered in his first and only appearance.

Then Willis decided enough was enough. Whatever happened to the once-formidable talent, and Willis will have the rest of his life to figure it out, the guy who once lit up a ballpark merely walking out to the mound decided to call it a career. Assuming you could call it one. When he was one of the National League's best pitchers (his sterling 2005 included 5 shutouts and a 2.68 earned run average), there were those who dared to compare Willis to Sandy Koufax. When his control abandoned him, almost overnight, the comparisons turned to Steve Blass.

Either one may have been an exaggeration. Like Koufax, Willis is retiring at age 30. Unlike Koufax, Willis isn't at the top of his game, he's been several places trying to figure out where, how, and why his game began to abandon him.

Or perhaps he's come to peace with himself and his effort to reclaim it. Unlike Herb Score, whose career was wrecked by injury — no, silly, it wasn't the line drive in the face from Gil McDougald, as you'll be reminded in due course — Willis has no physical malady to which he can point as the beginning of the long, sad end. But like Score, he pitched when he could, did what he could with what he had, and finally took off the uniform before it was torn off his back.

Think of some of the other talents who looked like they had long, productive, even Hall of Fame careers ahead of them, but ran into their own roadblocks, some of their own making, some not. Even a short list would be staggering:

Rex Barney — A teen phenom with the 1943 Brooklyn Dodgers. A fastball nobody could see, possibly including his catchers, not even with infra-red light. Found a way to harness it and won 15 in 1948. His resume included a no-hitter against the hated Giants. The next season: lost some effectiveness trying to overcome a leg injury; he'd broken a leg in two spots sliding hard into second base at 1948's end. The season after that: 48 walks in 33 innings and gone. "Barney," waxed one sportswriter, "pitched as though the plate were high and outside." Finished at 25.

He'd later become famous as the Orioles' ballpark announcer, but he'd admit his failure as a pitcher still stung. (He once told Sandy Koufax, who asked him about the so-called "Rex Barney Fastball," "Well, Sandy, you got it, but you got control of it, and that's the difference.") He still managed to write two charming memoirs, one hooked around his years as the beloved Memorial Stadium announcer famous for "Thank youuuuuuuuuu!" and "Give that man a contract!" whenever a fan caught a foul memorably.

Jack Banta — Another Dodger pitching comer who looked like a live one in 1949. After a couple of cups of coffee in 1947 and 1948, the sidewinding Banta came up in 1949 and established himself as one of the club's top relief pitchers. Came on in the sixth and finished for the win in the September pennant clincher. Three live relief gigs in the World Series. The following season: shoulder injury and finished.

Banta tried to become a manager in the Dodger system but was canned unceremoniously in 1958. Went to work for a grocery distributor as a dock worker and moved up the ranks until his retirement. Died of cardiovascular disease in 2006 at 81. Told Peter Golenbock (for Bums: An Oral History of the Brooklyn Dodgers) in the early 1980s that he hadn't gone to a baseball game since the Dodgers cut him loose as a minor league manager.

Harry Agganis — Two-sport star who chose baseball and had Red Sox fans drooling over his future at first base in the mid-1950s. Tore up the minors; had a modest 1954 rookie campaign but still led the league's first basemen in assists and fielding percentage. Started 1955 warm enough until felled by pneumonia and chest pains in June. Died of a pulmonary embolism near month's end.

Karl Spooner — Yet another Brooklyn pitching phenom. Turned his 1954 cup of coffee into three squares swiftly with back-to-back shutouts at season's end. Dodger fans were already calculating the language of his Hall of Fame plaque; he struck out 15 in the first of the shutouts, a rookie record that stood until J.R. Richard smashed it in 1971. Struck out 12 in the second of the games. "Sooner with Spooner!" became a Brooklyn rallying cry, the borough believing the confident kid would help them win that elusive World Series at last. Spring training 1955: came into a game without a full warmup and blew his arm. Would manage 29 games in 1955, including Game 1 of the World Series ... the last game he'd pitch in the majors.

After three more years struggling in the minors and a shoulder operation that proved fruitless for helping him restore his arm, it became sooner for Spooner — retirement from baseball, that is. He eventually became a packing house manager in Vero Beach, longtime spring home of the Dodgers, and raised his family, dying in 1984, not long after he sat for interviews with Peter Golenbock for Bums.

Herb Score — He was Sandy Koufax half a decade before Koufax became Koufax. Big left-hander. Over-the-top fastball, in every sense of the word. Rookie strikeout record, eventually to be smashed by Dwight Gooden. Two super seasons: 508 strikeouts, 36 wins, a Rookie of the Year award. 1957: Smashed in the face by McDougald's liner. Came back a year later but then suffered what really killed his career: an elbow blowout, and faulty mechanics trying to compensate for it.

Score was never the same pitcher again, hanging in in the Indians' and White Sox's systems (he was traded to the White Sox within days of the infamous Colavito-for-Kuenn deal) until 1964, then moved into the Indians' broadcast booth and became a beloved (and sometimes quirky, often malapropping) announcer. He died after a long illness in 2008; he never let himself become bitter ("I'm not a guy who's been unlucky, I'm a guy who's been in the right places at the right times") over the career that might have been.

John Malangone — A catcher discovered by the same scout (Paul Krichell) who'd discovered Lou Gehrig and Whitey Ford. Tools to burn. A hot minor league career got him posed by a New York tabloid in a squat between Dickey and another Yankee coach, Hall of Famer Mickey Cochrane. With Dickey, Cochrane, and incumbent Yogi Berra himself grooming him, this kid couldn't miss. Never made it. Clowned and crashed (three motorcycles) his way out of a Yankee springtime intrasquad game before he ever saw a major league at-bat.

It turned out Malangone was haunted into mental paralysis by the childhood death of his best friend and biological uncle, killed by young Malangone's own homemade javelin — accidentally. A fact Malangone couldn't accept until he finally saw the coroner's report at a friend's urging decades later. Believing the accident a crime for which he couldn't be punished enough, Malangone destroyed himself until — after years of dark self-laceration — he finally saw the death certificate. He's since played nine years in an over-40 league in New Jersey and learned to live at peace with himself.

Gary Smith has written a beautiful and haunting examination of Malangone's tragedy in "Damned Yankee," a Sports Illustrated piece collected into Smith's splendid anthology, Beyond the Game.

Steve Dalkowski — Decades later they still talk about this Oriole prospect with a fastball nobody could see, never mind hit. (He struck out 1,396 hitters and walked 1,354 in 995 minor league innings.) A party boy off the field (he once hatched a plot to peep on a Miss Venezuela in the next room from the one he shared with another minor league flake, Bo Belinsky) who drank as hard as he threw. After several seasons of minor league legend, during which Earl Weaver helped him harness his harrowing power, Dalkowski finally made the Orioles in spring training 1963 ... and blew his elbow out while pitching in an exhibition game to Yankee shortstop Phil Linz.

The guy who once terrorized even Ted Williams in an exhibition game (if Williams couldn't see your fastball, he was intimidated) returned to the minors, bounced around two organizations before a feeble return to the Orioles, then retired for good in 1966. As a player, not a drinker. (It's said that Dalkowski may also have compromised himself after hitting a batter so hard it jolted him into trying to take something off his legendary fastball.) Dalkowski spent decades as a migrant worker and the subject of anecdotes that seemed to get as wild as his own fastball with age.

Finally, after his second wife died of a brain aneurysm, Dalkowski was rescued by a sister, brought back to his native Connecticut, dried out, and learned to live happily even if the years of drinking have wiped out most of his memory between 1964 and 1994.

Jim Bouton — Looked like the next great Yankee marksman (he won 23 in 1963, his second season, and shone in a couple of World Series) until arm and shoulder miseries reduced him to learning the knuckleball and a few other off-speed pitches and settling mostly for mop-up relief work. Ended up with the expansion Seattle Pilots and then Astros in 1969, a season that produced his groundbreaking from-the-inside diary Ball Four. Which, in turn, produced the end of his career, when the baseball establishment pretty much decided he had no business pulling the covers on the sport even further away than Jim Brosnan (The Long Season, Pennant Race) had done a decade earlier. (His hilarious followup, I'm Glad You Didn't Take it Personally, chronicled the hoopla over Ball Four — including Commissioner Bowie Kuhn's attempt to quash the book.)

Bouton became a television sports reporter, co-inventor of Big League Chew, and made a brief but memorable comeback bid with the 1978 Braves, even pitching J.R. Richard ("maybe the hardest thrower in baseball") to a draw in one start. After retiring for keeps, Bouton divorced, became a motivational speaker, remarried, and in time a) co-founder of an exhibition baseball league playing under 1890s rules and b) a semi-professional ballroom dancer with his second wife. Endured the tragic death of his youngest child in a road accident to become invited to Yankee Old-Timer's Days at long enough last.

Tony Conigliaro — Rookie sensation in 1964. Youngest American League home run champion ever in 1965. Had 100 bombs on his resume by age 22. (The second-youngest to reach that milestone behind Mel Ott.) 1967: Flattened by a Jack Hamilton fastball catching him on the cheek, when the pitch veered inside and Conigliaro, never shy about crowding the plate, couldn't duck in time. (To this day, Hamilton insists he wasn't trying to knock Conigliaro down.) A Comeback Player of the Year award in 1970 couldn't stop his vision problems from eroding what was left of his career.

He became a San Francisco sports anchor on television and was back in Boston for a shot at a similar job when he suffered a heart attack, then a stroke, falling into a coma and then a vegetative state until his death at 45. Conigliaro's beaning inspired the flaps now standard on major league batting helmets; the Tony Conigliaro Award is now given each year to the player who best symbolizes return from adversity.

Vida Blue — Arguably the Dontrelle Willis of his time, at least in terms of a swift rise ... swift enough to earn him a Time cover, a Cy Young Award, and a Most Valuable Player award in the same season ... when he was all of 21. The entire country was singing the Blues for this couldn't-miss kid. Then Charley Finley went too far in trying to cauterize Blue's $100,000 contract demand for 1972: "Well, I know you won 24 games. I know you led the league in earned run average. I know you had three hundred strikeouts. I know you made the all-star team. I know you were the youngest to win the Cy Young Award and the MVP. I know all that. And if I was you, I would ask for the same thing. And you deserve it. But I ain't gonna give it to you."

Commissioner Bowie Kuhn intervened; Blue settled for $65,000 and went on to forge a respectable career nowhere near his 1971 promise (he wouldn't even strike out as many as 200 hitters in any season to come), becoming bitter, withdrawn, and with drug trouble to boot (he was one of those testifying at the infamous 1985 Pittsburgh drug trials), until he finally retired with 209 wins and to a life of charitable work and baseball promotion in the Bay Area.

Steve Blass — After a few seasons to horse himself, he sat on top of the world in 1971 as one of the keys to the Pirates' World Series championship (he beat the Orioles twice with complete-game wins) and in 1972 as an All-Star. Three years later: lost control, lost career.

Blass has since managed to come to terms with the collapse of his pitching career and become a longtime, long-loved colour commentator on the Pirates' television broadcasts. But "Steve Blass Disease" has entered the baseball lexicon, with Willis cited as its most recent and prominent victim, even though Blass may never have been diagnosed with an anxiety disorder.

Mark (The Bird) Fidrych — He was the Vida Blue of 1976 and made the Blue of 1971 seem like a monk. Playful. Flaky. Talked to the ball before throwing it. Manicured the mound by hand before pitching. Rookie of the Year with 19 wins, a small truckload of strikeouts, and an unlimited future. The following spring: dinged his knee, came back too soon, shredded his shoulder, and then made the first of numerous premature comebacks from the shoulder miseries. Finished within five years, at age 29. Learned only around his finish that he'd had a frayed rotator cuff made worse by all those undiagnosed comebacks.

The Bird retired to his farm, worked the farm and construction, never once showing any bitterness over what might have been. He remained a beloved Tiger alumnus until he died accidentally in 2009, while trying to repair a dump truck that collapsed and pinned him.

Lyman Bostock — Sharp-hitting outfielder with a fine defensive range and arm. Finished fourth in the American League batting race in his rookie 1976, then finished second to Twins teammate Rod Carew in his sophomore year. Looked like a power for years to come. Signed as a free agent with the Angels for 1978; donated $10,000 to rebuild a Sunday school in his native Birmingham; offered to return his first month's salary after he started off slowly, an offer the club refused because they respected him as a person. Regaining his stroke, Bostock cruised toward season's end when, on the next to last week, after a game with the White Sox in Chicago, he visited an uncle in nearby Gary, Indiana.

He was shot to death by a man, Leonard Smith, whose wife was in the car Bostock, his uncle, and a friend (the sister of the wife in question) rode, when the man fired into the car during a traffic stop, intending the bullet (he said) for his wife and not Bostock. The case helped change Indiana's insanity-defence laws; Smith, meanwhile, finished his formal, hospitalised psychiatric treatment, stayed trouble free the rest of his life, and never spoke publicly about Bostock before his own death in 2010. Bostock was 27 when he was killed.

Joe Charboneau — The Mark Fidrych of position players. Parlayed a shot at the Show when Andre Thornton went down with an injury into becoming the American League's Rookie of the Year in 1980 at 25. Egged on by a Cleveland sportswriter, fans called him "Super Joe Charboneau." Inspired a hit record in Cleveland, "Go, Joe Charboneau." Became renowned for whacky doings such as drinking through a straw through his nose and opening beer bottles with his eye socket. He was young, handsome, and flaky in the right ways. The following spring: Injured his back on a hard slide in a spring training game. Would never be anything resembling the same player. Finished at age 29.

Charboneau's last known appearance in uniform: as a teammate of Roy Hobbs (Robert Redford) in The Natural. Eventually became a minor league batting instructor and operator of a private instruction facility and now heads the baseball side of Parkville, Ohio's Parks and Recreation Department.

J.R. Richard — You could make a case that here was what Steve Dalkowski might have been with control and without the booze. Maybe the National League's least touchable pitcher once he finally harnessed his talent from 1976-79. Big guy: 6'8". When you hit against him, he looked like he was about to reach just a few inches to shake your hand from the mound before busting one past or through you. (Jim Bouton, trying an unlikely 1978 comeback with the Braves, once went mano-a-mano with Richard in a start and they fought each other to a draw, "the young flamethrower and the old junk-baller," each leaving without a decision but not before Richard set a league strikeout record for right-handers.)

Come 1980: shoulder and back miseries; the Astros wondered aloud whether they weren't in his mind, and Richard almost couldn't get anyone to take him seriously. After the 1980 All-Star Break: Stroke. Finished at 30, though he tried and failed to make a comeback in the Houston minor league system, a comeback throttled by his loss of reaction time thanks to the stroke. (He did win a settlement from the Astros regarding misdiagnosis of the blood clot that caused his stroke; in fairness, Richard had been a recreational cocaine user in his playing days, as many players were, alas, and it may or may not have helped precipitate the clot.) Went from there to a few rounds of business failures, two bitter divorces, the second of which cost him his home and most of his money, and finally ended up homeless and destitute until he found solace and resurrection through his church.

Today, Richard is a Christian minister and works around the Houston area establishing baseball programs for children. And in some ways he's still the most ignored Astro, perhaps out of organizational guilt? There remains a small movement to convince the Astros to retire the number of perhaps the best pitcher the club has known to date.

Dwight Gooden — Absolutely owned the National League in his first two seasons, 1984 (Rookie of the Year) and 1985 (the youngest-ever Cy Young Award winner, the youngest-ever pitching Triple Crown leader ... in the majors.) They called him Dr. K. A fastball that exploded before it reached the plate; the most voluptuous curve ball baseball had seen since Sandy Koufax — who helped the cause by saying he'd trade his past for Gooden's future.

Not as of spring training 1986, he wouldn't: the Mets monkeyed around with Gooden's pitching repertoire — fearing his workload and his strikeout propensities would jeopardize him, they forced him to try mixing in a changeup and a slider he couldn't really throw in the first place — and left him a mess. He never became the Hall of Famer everyone thought he would become. Addled by drug troubles and by shoulder miseries prompted directly from the spring '86 tinkering, Gooden would never again look anywhere near his 1984-85 form.

He'd make a long enough career (he retired six wins shy of 200) that would pull up statistically just shy of a Hall of Fame career in spite of everything, pitching a no-hitter in the bargain (as a Yankee, which must have driven Met fans out of their gourds), but among those supernovae who did make long and somewhat respectable careers after falling from their trans-dimensional height, Gooden's career may yet remain the saddest might-have-been of them all. May.

Kerry Wood — Busted into the game big-time with a 20-punchout outing. They thought it wasn't a question of if but when he'd be standing in Cooperstown after holding the Cubs' first World Series trophy since the Roosevelt Administration — Theodore's, that is. Tenacious competitor on the field, an amiable fellow off it. Took no quarter on the mound ... when he could pitch at all.

Done in by injuries through which he fought gutsily enough over long seasons; converted himself into a better-than-average relief pitcher at one point. Finally gave it up earlier this season.

Mark Prior — He, too, was a Cub comer, and how — No. 2 draft pick. (He didn't want to sign with the Twins, leaving them to pick Joe Mauer instead.) Stuff to burn. Tenacity to burn. Joining an injury-historied Wood, Prior in 2003 looked like he was going to rule the earth for years to come. He, too, began suffering shoulder miseries and injuries, after first injuring his Achilles tendon; there were those who said manager Dusty Baker ruined both Prior and Wood by leaving them in to work up insane pitch counts each game. Up and down long since.

Prior still clings to yet another comeback attempt, this time in the Red Sox organization after failed such bids in the systems of the Padres, the Rangers, and the Yankees. He's made it as far as the Pawtucket (AAA) club, but nobody knows for sure whether this is Prior's absolute last stand.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:01 PM | Comments (0)

July 5, 2012

Grading WAC Helmets and Logos

In May, I wrote a column detailing the rise and fall of the Western Athletic Conference. Today I figure, since we won't have them to kick around much longer, now is the time to give the WAC the Slant Pattern treatment with regards to their helmets and logos, both present and historical (or at least the historical offerings of the present-day members).

Idaho has a pretty boring logo (the one on their helmets is basically this, different color scheme), which betrays their unique nickname, the Vandals, and a more creative past.

If I am to judge solely by Idaho's logos, the Vandals were sort of like the Vikings except with wings on their helmets instead of horns. As cartoonish as that was, they struck a great balance in 1979, going with a logo that both captured the "vandal" persona but is done in an interesting, abstract way. Too bad they chucked that for boringness in 1992.

Louisiana Tech's logo has been this, with only minor variations, from the beginning of time. And that's fine, it's a decent logo, although if I was a Tennessee intellectual property rights owner I'd take a long hard look at the font of that T. They finally rolled out an alternate logo in 2008. I like the alternate too, because it's hard to come up with a bulldog-face logo that's not an obvious ripoff to any of the other legions of schools known as bulldogs.

New Mexico State is next. First, a word on their nickname, the Aggies. There are four Division 1 schools with the Aggie nickname: NMSU, Texas A&M, Utah State (also in the WAC), and UC-Davis. There is zero consensus, however, what animal or mascot best exemplifies what an "Aggie" is. So NMSU uses as cowboy, A&M a collie dog, Utah State a bull, and UC-Davis a horse. I guess this is understandable, because "agricultural student" doesn't really lend itself easily to some sort of great logo or mascot. Still, I think A&M has the best idea, using the dog only sparingly for logo purposes and sticking to stylized TAM letters instead.

Back to NMSU specifically, their recent logo history is a fascinating tale of the forces of political correctness winning a battle and then losing the rematch. After years of using a "Pistol Pete" logo that was a blatant ripoff of Oklahoma State's cowboy, they came out with this bad boy back in the early 2000s. But some administrators were squeamish about the guns in the logo, a trend that goes all the way back to 1965, when the Houston Colt .45s changed their name to the Astros and more recently when the Washington Bullets became the Wizards. So the powers that be changed his weapon of choice in 2005, which naturally caused an uproar among students. In 2007, they got their wish and they reverted to the pistol-packing previous logo. Huzzah! Too bad they suck in every sport anyone cares about.

San Jose State. I often lament, when reviewing logos, when teams and colleges dispense with creative logos in favor of bland ones. In the case of SJSU, however, I am pleased to report their most recent logo is also their best. After years of unremarkable spartan heads, in 2006 they gave him muscles and a spear. Good move.

But even more crucially, in 2010 they dropped the San Jose State wordmark, at least from their football helmets, and this fell in line with Kevin Beane's rule number one of logos: if you want it to be timeless, you can't have words identifying and helping along the viewer. The logo should stand on its own (letters are okay). Well done, San Jose State!

Texas State. First, good on Texas State (formerly Southwest Texas State) for getting rid of the paw print helmet, one of the most overused images in sports. Second, from 1997 to 2002, they used a logo that looks like Tom from Tom and Jerry took a heavy combination of steroids and bath salts (and why is the A larger than every letter but the B? Go BobcAts!). Thankfully, they've gone in a more sensible direction since then.

Utah State. Now, back to the usual trend of trading in creative for boring. Scroll down to Utah State on this page. They used the shape of the state in 1964-67, always a nice touch. Throughout the '70s, they put bull horns on the letters, to be followed by more interesting helmets, if a bit much, in the early '90s. Then in 1995 someone said, "No! These are too interesting! Just put a blue U on there with the word "state" in the inside right portion of it!" Now, going into this year, they decided even that was too interesting and has unveiled their most boring logo yet. Needless to say, they came up with a secondary logo at the same time which is vastly superior and I bet will never be used.

Texas-San Antonio. UTSA has only been in existence since 1969 and their athletic program is younger than that, so not much of a history to go on here. Their logo as well as their football helmet decal is this, which is alright, but for some reason I hate the orange and navy blue combination popularized by the Denver Broncos. I like those colors fine by themselves or in tandem with other colors, but, for some reason, not that. UTSA's logo before the present one was this, by far the most hilarious logo in WAC history. I mean, sure, we've all seen a roadrunner pulling on a track uniform on the side of the road, but this one apparently had the foresight to cut a hole in the butt of his shorts to allow his beautiful plumage to breathe free. A single teardrop rolls down my cheek. Run like the wind, roadrunner!

Posted by Kevin Beane at 5:05 PM | Comments (2)

The Issues Behind the NHL's CBA

Early July has provided a welcome distraction for hockey fans as the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter saga have dragged on for days. Behind the scenes, though, the bigger news is that the NHL and NHLPA have started negotiations for the upcoming CBA (the current one expires on September 15). Here's a primer on some of the key sticking points from both sides:

Percentage to the players — The NHL locked in the percentage of revenue coming out of the last work stoppage at 57% to the players. This time, you can be sure they'll want to drop that further — probably to the 50% mark. They'll argue that a true partnership is 50/50, the players will argue that the league has never been stronger. In the end, it's one of the biggest bargaining chips for the players, and every percentage point that it drops will probably equal something in return.

Revenue sharing — A point of contention within the Board Of Governors itself, the revenue sharing formula will most likely be tweaked coming out of the new CBA. What shape will it take? There will probably be some relief to smaller markets, but there are too many parties in play between the owners themselves and the players to see how this one's going to end.

Cap floor — For smaller teams losing money (and that's relative, see below), the cap floor is similar to the cap ceiling from a few years back. A lower cap floor provides more flexibility within the organization. However, for players, they'll want the cap floor to stay as high as possible, as a lower floor can provide drag to low- and mid-tier player raises.

Length of term — Just like the salary cap back in 2004, the owners are looking for a way to save themselves from their own worst enemy — themselves. A cap on term would eliminate any future contracts that range in the double-digit length. For the players, they simply view these as "Hey, they're the ones giving us these deals" and they feel that there should be no further limitations on what they can earn in a bidding war.

Actual expenses and revenue — Every time an owner complains about losing money, that's only true on a technicality — in many cases, "loses" are creative bookkeeping as the hockey team is only part of an organization. If they're the anchor tenant in the building, than the organization also makes money of concerts and other sporting events, and the hockey team is a necessary financial evil to keep the building filled. Many teams sell suite packages for an entire season of events, not just a concert package or a hockey package, and those numbers often get filed away under the parent organization.

Olympic participation — International play is important to the NHL. How that is staged, though, is where the challenge is. The Olympics take place in the middle of the season, thus causing a shutdown period. Then there's travel and injuries to factor into the regular season. On the other hand, players want to participate in the Olympics, as it's a unique and unforgettable experience. And as fun as the World Cup is, it's not the same thing. The compromise would seem to be to play in the Summer Olympics so it doesn't interfere with the NHL schedule, but who knows if that's on the table.

Buried contracts — Anyone heard from Wade Redden lately? Look for the players to push for some form of resolution so high-priced busts can be rescued through some type of contract amnesty. Yes, there's the current buyout system, but that still has pretty harsh cap issues for long-term expensive deals. Meanwhile, talented guys are seeing their careers go by without another chance. However, the owners can use the same argument that the players do with term of contract — "Hey, they're the ones that signed these deals."

The only real certainty facing this year's CBA negotiations is that the hardline stances from both sides don't appear nearly as venomous as last time. For the most part, everyone is saying the right things, and even NHLPA head Donald Fehr noted that the PA and the league can agree to start the season without a CBA.

In short, there's little reason to fear a season-destroying catastrophe like the last negotiations. However, don't say anything just yet — we don't want to jinx it.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

July 4, 2012

Hot and Not Heading to the All-Star Break

With the All-Star Break in Major League Baseball looming near, some of the usual suspects are where they are supposed to be while a few surprises have emerged giving their fans a summer to look forward to. The Yankees, Rangers, and Angels are playing the best baseball in the American League. The National League has seen the surprising Washington Nationals post the best record, with the Giants now flexing their muscle in the NL West.

Going into the break, the American League is playing out as most experts predicted with one exception. When will Detroit get it turned around? Or will they? The Tigers were expected to run away with the Central, but have fallen well short of expectations. With the addition of Prince Fielder to go with an already potent lineup featuring Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers were banking on Fielder as the missing piece to get them past the AL championship series, where they fell to Texas last season. Justin Verlander has been the victim of little run support and some bad luck and Doug Fister has not matched the second half spark he provided Detroit coming over from Seattle.

Meanwhile, the White Sox can score and have enough pitching to be around the top of the division throughout the summer. Cleveland has been solid, but can they keep up the pace for three more months.

The Yankees have been playing exceptionally well in the tough AL East. Baltimore and Tampa Bay have taken their turns on top, but now New York is showing signs as the team to beat. Baltimore has slowed down since their great start. Tampa Bay has been tough to figure out. Pitching has kept them in the race, but their offense has taken the first three months off. Boston is hanging in there while waiting for key players to get healthy.

Texas owns the best record in the AL, but don't look now, the Angels are not far behind. Texas has been knocking on the door of a World Series title the past couple years and have the goods to make it back for a third consecutive year. Unlike the Tigers, the Angels did turn it around after a horrendous start. Although Albert Pujols has been better lately, he has not lived up to the numbers on the back of his baseball card. The key to the Angels' turn-around is rookie Mike Trout. Trout has not only been exciting since being called up, he has been dominant. Trout can do it all, and is showing up on every highlight reel nightly.

The Washington Nationals have been the surprise team of this 2012 season and, like the Angels, have a phenom of their own in Bryce Harper. The Nationals are doing it with pitching and hitting, which leads one to believe they might have enough to actually win the NL East. The Phillies are sinking fast and do not look to repeat as division winners. Although Chase Utley is back, without Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay, they don't have much hope. The Mets have given their fans reason to believe playing their best baseball in recent years. The Braves, along with the Mets, are right there if the Nationals fall.

It should not come as any surprise that the Reds are on top in the NL Central. They have a bonafide lineup with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips. The starting rotation has been solid, led by Johnny Cueto. What is surprising is that they share the top with the Pirates. Yes, the Pittsburgh Pirates! Pittsburgh has been doing it with solid starting pitching, a better than average bullpen, and clutch hitting, led by Andrew McCutcheon. The Cardinals are just a few games back and could make some noise if their rotation can hold up and the offense continues to put up crooked numbers.

The Dodgers seemed to be on their way to running away with the NL West, but then they lost arguably the best player in April and May to injury. With Matt Kemp out, the offense has struggled to score runs. Andre Ethier has seen his production suffer since Kemp went down. The Dodgers most recently lost their lead to the Giants and hope that Kemp will back soon to get their offense back on track. San Francisco has the pieces to win the West and if Tim Lincecum ever returns to form, they should have no problem taking the West.

Since we are now at the half-way point in the 2012 season, it is time to make some playoff predictions. I like the Yankees, White Sox, and Rangers to win their divisions. The Angels and Red Sox snag wild cards, with the Angels advancing to the World Series. In the National League, I like the Nationals, Reds, and Giants winning their divisions. The Cardinals and Dodgers get wild cards, with Cincinnati to face the Angels in the World Series and the Angels winning.

Posted by Greg Suttich at 1:32 PM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson led 21 laps at Kentucky and finished sixth in the Quaker State 400, as Hendrick Motorsports drivers claimed four of the top six positions, led by Kasey Kahne's second. Johnson is now third in the Sprint Cup point standings, 23 out of first.

"Brad Keselowski's No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge was the car to beat," Johnson said. "Would I go so far as to say Keselowski is a legitimate threat for the championship? Let me put it this way: despite my five Sprint Cup championships, I don't necessarily 'champion' that belief.

"Try as we might, no Hendrick cars could catch Brad Keselowski. He was just too fast, and beat the field by such a margin that he was able to Tweet his win before it happened, which is the perfect argument for banning texting while driving."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth, who announced his departure from Roush Fenway Racing last week, posted a seventh in the Quaker State 400, his 12th top-10 of the year. He remained on top of the point standings with an 11-point lead over Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

"Jack Roush said he wished he had done more to keep me at Roush Fenway," Kenseth said. "But Carl Edwards did plenty to make me want to leave. Anyway, the money was just too good not to leave. You could say I was 'high-Jacked.'

"I've won only one Sprint Cup title with Roush. I felt I could reach my full potential at another team. So, this was not a case of good riddance, but a case of great riddance."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt surged closer to the lead in the Sprint Cup point standings with a fourth at Kentucky, his seventh top-five result of the year. He now trails points leader Matt Kenseth by 11.

"I've moved on from Michigan," Earnhardt said. "That's more than I can say for Junior Nation — some of them are still camped out in the MIS infield.

"But thank goodness I finally got that elusive win out of the way. A win is much like a flask of warm liquor secreted away in an Earnhardt fan's waistband: it's good to know I've got one under my belt."

4. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin led 58 laps at Kentucky, and was chasing Brad Keselowski to the finish before an uncertain fuel situation forced him to lay off the throttle. He still finished third, his eighth top-five finish of the year, and is fifth in the point standings, 68 out of first.

"As you know," Hamlin said, "I announced my contract extension with Joe Gibbs Racing on Twitter just before Saturday's race. So, literally and figuratively, no one 'heard' it."

5. Tony Stewart — Stewart's electronic fuel injection failed just 28 laps in on Saturday night's race, forcing his No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil Chevy to the garage. He eventually finished 32nd, 36 laps down, and tumbled four places to ninth in the point standings.

"Saturday also saw another run-in between Ryan Newman and Joey Logano," Stewart said. "My money's on Newman, not only because he's my teammate, but also because his neck is thicker than Logano's waist. Ryan's college-educated, so he's more than able to knock some sense into Logano. Let's just call Ryan 'The Intimidator,' because Logano's too young to know the real one."

6. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski, forced to a backup car, took charge late in the Quaker State 400 and ran away to a convincing victory, his series-best third of the year. Keselowski's No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge was wrecked by Juan Montoya in Friday's practice, forcing his team to scramble to prepare the backup.

"Before I could say 'that's three,'" Keselowski said, "I had to say 'that's Juan.' Montoya obviously mistook me for a jet dryer. He drive's like I've got 'Target' on my car."

7. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished 11th at Kentucky as his winless season continued. He is fifth in the Sprint Cup point standings, but has only three top-5 finishes on the year.

"Richard Childress Racing is struggling so far this year," Harvick said. "Will an RCR driver play a role in the Chase? It's doubtful. This year, it seems you can't spell 'irrelevant' without 'RCR.'

"That begs the question: how does an RCR driver make an impact in the Chase? He leaves the team. That's a Clint Bowyer joke, but, as they say, the jokes on us."

8. Greg Biffle — Biffle had a top-10 finish in his sights before a late green-flag pit stop relegated him to a finish of 21st. He fell two places to fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, and is now 25 out of first.

"I spent a lot of time atop the point standings," Biffle said. "But I've found it's hard to stay there. I, much like Card Edwards on Saturday, found that you can't 'coast' to victory. With Matt Kenseth's impending departure and Edwards' struggled, it seems we have two 'lame ducks' at Roush Fenway."

9. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex posted his ninth top-10 finish of the year, coming home eighth in the Quaker State 400. He is now eighth in the point standings, 77 out of first.

"Michael Waltrip really wanted a win in Kentucky," Truex said. "Waltrip is a lot like Kentucky head basketball coach John Calipari. He's a great recruiter, and he finances his own team."

10. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished 16th in the Quaker State 400, ending a streak of four consecutive top-10 results. He remained seventh in the point standings, 76 out of first.

"The No. 15 5-Hour Energy Toyota was good," Bowyer said, "but not good enough. Last year at Kentucky, fans needed 'five hours of energy' just to leave the track."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:12 PM | Comments (0)

July 3, 2012

The Bright, Elusive Butterflies of Cy

Perhaps the single easiest no-brainer of this year's all-star picture is that R.A. Dickey was going to make the team. The late-blooming Met, who resurrected his career after learning and mastering a knuckleball that's a little more powerful than the pitch normally happens to be, is putting up a 2012 that's not just off the charts, it's somewhere where the charts can't even reach.

Think about this: a knuckleballer, throwing a pitch some people still think a gimmick, others think an excuse to hang in when everybody knows (and who's "everybody?") that the only "legitimate" pitching is power pitching (if that's the case how did Whitey Ford sneak into the Hall of Fame?), is hanging up a season you'd normally expect to find on someone's Hall of Fame resume for the most part.

A 12-1 won-lost record at this writing, with the twelve wins leading the entire Show. A .923 winning percentage, again tops in Show. A 0.89 walks/hits per inning pitched rate, three complete games, two shutouts (both one-hitters, incidentally, and back-to-back in the bargain), all tops in the National League. Not to mention a 2.15 earned run average. The man who shook a few people up by climbing Mount Kilmanjaro in the off-season is spending this season, anyway, traveling in country once inhabited by such as Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens (before the controversies), and Greg Maddux.

They don't just speak of R.A. Dickey as the likely or most obvious candidate to start this year's All-Star Game; they're talking about his possibilities for bagging the Cy Young Award. If Dickey picks up where he left off after the Game and goes on to hang up a Cy Young-winning season, it would smash a precedent to pieces.

No knuckleballer has ever won the award. Two whom you might have thought of winning it (Ted Lyons, Dutch Leonard) ended their careers before the award was introduced in 1956, when Brooklyn's Don Newcombe won the first Cy Young. (Dutch Leonard, by the way, has an interesting place in baseball trivia contests. Quick: name the majors' only known four-man starting rotation composed entirely of knuckleball pitchers. Answer: the 1945 Washington Senators — Leonard, Mickey Haefner, Johnny Niggeling, Roger Wolff.)

The Hall of Fame hasn't been unkind to knuckleballers — Ted Lyons, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Phil Niekro are there, and Eddie (Knuckles) Cicotte probably would have been there had there not been that business with the 1919 World Series. The Cy Young Award is something else. How have the butterfly pitchers fared in the voting since the award was born? We'll take them in the order in which they launched their major league careers:

Hoyt Wilhelm — Possibly the best-known knuckleballer of his time this side of Phil Niekro, and still thought by many to have been the best relief pitcher of all time. Wilhelm never factored in any Cy Young Award voting. His career — which began late enough as it was (he was 29 when he arrived in the Show) thanks to enough people thinking he "threw like a washerwoman" — ended slightly before relief pitchers began earning some Cy Young consideration in earnest. (Not even Elroy Face, who deserves a Hall of Fame plaque in his own right, earned Cy Young consideration, even in a 1959 season in which he finished seventh in the National League's Most Valuable Player voting.)

Wilhelm was actually put into a starting rotation once upon a time, for the 1959 Orioles, pitching a no-hitter against the Yankees while he was at it. He even opened the season 9-0 with a -1.00 ERA, prompting Leo Durocher (who managed Wilhelm in his early seasons with the Giants) to regret having made him a reliever. ("I I ever had any idea he could go the distance like that I'd have used him as a starter when I had him on the Giants. Maybe I made a big mistake.")

When the once-lauded "Baby Birds" Oriole rotation solidified in earnest in 1960, manager Paul Richards sent Wilhelm back to the bullpen. Wilhelm would end up outlasting every one of the Baby Birds except two (Barber, Pappas) who supplanted him as starters. By the time he retired as a longtime relief ace — and he wasn't just a situational reliever, either — Wilhelm would be just days shy of his 50th birthday when the Dodgers released him. At his retirement, Wilhelm held the lowest lifetime ERA (2.52) of any pitcher with 2,000+ innings since Walter Johnson retired after 1927.

Wilhelm became the first relief pitcher ever voted to the Hall of Fame when he was inducted in 1985. He spent years working as a minor league pitching coach and died in 2002.

Al Worthington — Like Wilhelm, Worthington put in time as a starter before being moved permanently to relief while with the Giants. He never factored in any Cy Young voting, and he used the knuckleball in hand with an array of other off-speed pitches — he didn't go to the pitch as more of his money pitch until 1966. Once he settled in in Minnesota (he was sold to the Twins by the Reds in 1964) he personified the better-with-age adage. He was one of the American League's best relief pitchers from there until his retirement after the 1969 season, a year after he led the American League with 18 saves.

Worthington made a reputation as a man of integrity even when it cost him Show time; he once opted to stay in the minors rather than look the other way when the White Sox (to whom he belonged in 1960) were known to be stealing signs rapaciously enough. (He didn't return to the majors until 1964.) When he was 38, Worthington came into a game against the Senators and pitched eight and two thirds innings of two-hit relief.

Bob Purkey — The knuckleballers didn't even show up in the top four or five in Cy voting until 1962, when Purkey finished third in the vote (Hall of Famer Don Drysdale won the award) after going 23-5 and leading the National League with an .815 winning percentage. Bear in mind: from 1956 through 1966 (when Sandy Koufax won his staggering second consecutive and third overall), the Cy Young Award was given to one pitcher across the board.

Think about that: In 1962, Cy Young Award voters thought Bob Purkey — whose preponderant pitch was a pitch many still think either a gimmick or an illegitimate pitch — was the third-best pitcher in baseball, and some future sabermetricians (Bill James among them) would come to argue that Purkey might have been slightly more worthy of the 1962 Cy than Drysdale actually was. (It kind of makes you wonder, too, what might have been if Wilhelm, arguably a better pitcher than Purkey, hadn't been sent back to the bullpen after 1959.)

A lot of the possible factor: Drysdale's team went to the wire for the pennant, tying the Giants at season's end — they lost in a three-game playoff to the Giants — while Purkey's Reds finished third, six games out, and Cy Young voters in those years were usually inclined to think about pennant winners in hand with individual performances. The actual or perceived prejudice against the knuckleball may even have been the reason why, following his 1952-53 military service, it took Purkey four seasons to establish himself as a useful regular pitcher.

He was a very late bloomer, as it turned out. The Pirates signed him in 1948, keeping him in the minors until he was drafted for military service (in the same seasons in which the Army kept Willie Mays), then used him mostly in relief from 1954-57, before trading him to the Reds after the 1957 season (for a no-name, Don Gross). In Cincinnati, Purkey became a rotation mainstay and a three-time All-Star, and was one of the keys to the Reds' 1961 pennant. He hadn't made the majors until he was 27 (two years younger than Wilhelm on arrival), he wasn't thought of as a regular pitcher until he was 28, and his 1962 would be his career year and his last good year.

Purkey retired in 1966, after he had a quiet swan song with his first club, the Pirates. (The Reds traded him to the Cardinals after the 1964 season; he pitched usefully if unspectacularly for the Cardinals until they sold him to the Pirates coming out of spring training 1966.) He became a television sportscaster for a time in Pittsburgh, then launched a successful insurance business, before dying of complications from Alzheimer's disease at 78 in 2008.

Phil Niekro — Knucksie actually finished second to fellow Hall of Famer Tom Seaver in the 1969 National League Cy Young voting. In 1978-79, after about a decade of earning no such votes, Niekro finished sixth in the league's Cy voting each season, even as he posted a 21-20 record in 1979. In 1982, he led the National League in winning percentage and finished fifth in the Cy Young voting, the last time Niekro would finish in the award's top ten vote.

Niekro would pitch 20 seasons for the Braves before they released him to be signed by the Yankees, where he made his final all-star team; he'd win his 300th game during his Yankee days, not to mention setting the record Jamie Moyer would break in due course — the oldest man in baseball to throw a shutout. He spent time in Cleveland and Toronto before having a farewell tour of sorts with the Braves, retiring to manage an all-women's baseball team and serve as sports advisor to a toy and game manufacturer.

Classic Niekro story: in his Yankee days, Lou Piniella was his manager. One night, Piniella and a couple of reporters were schmoozing in the Yankee hotel bar when Niekro walked through the lobby, well past the team curfew. When one of the reporters asked Piniella after that, he cracked, “Hell, I can't tell Knucksie to go to bed — he's older than I am!”

Wilbur Wood — Already a 10-year veteran as a relief pitcher, Wood was converted to starting by the White Sox in 1971. He finished third that year's American League Cy Young voting (he went 22-13 with an astonishing 1.91 ERA), second in the following season's vote, and fifth in 1973 … when he turned the unusual feat of winning 24 (leading the league for the second straight season) and losing 20. Wood would go from there to hang up a fourth straight 20+-win season before hanging up a second 20-game losing season.

For four years following his conversion to starting Wood was one of the best pitchers in the American League. His career was all but ended when Detroit's Ron LeFlore smashed his kneecap with a low line drive in 1976. Wood underwent surgery and returned in due course, but he was never the same pitcher again and retired in 1978. Among his unusual feats are included a 1973 accomplishment in which he started the carryover of a suspended 21-inning game and won with five innings' work, then started the regularly-scheduled game (against the Indians) and pitched a shutout.

Joe Niekro — Knucksie's brother was one reason why the Hall of Famer finished sixth in the National League's 1979 Cy voting: brother Joe finished second. (Bruce Sutter, another Hall of Famer and a relief pitcher in the bargain, won the award.) The following season, the younger Niekro finished fourth. He would never again see a top-ten Cy Young vote finish for himself. He wasn't even close to big brother as a Hall of Fame candidate, but Joe Niekro did forge a very long and distinguished career.

Brother Joe, alas, is probably remembered most for a hilarious incident in 1987, when he toiled for the Twins. (He'd eventually make his only World Series appearance on that team.) During one 1987 game, umpire Steve Palermo caught Niekro with an emery board in his pocket. Niekro reached into his pockets and yanked them out with the board flying out to the ground, making blooper highlight reels for years to come and getting suspended ten games after then-American League president Dr. Bobby Brown refused to buy his story that he filed his nails between innings in the dugout.

Niekro retired when the Twins released him in 1988. He died of a brain aneurysm in 2006.

Charlie Hough — Never finished in the top 10 Cy Young Award voting; only ever made one all-star team. He's probably remembered best as being one of the three pitchers Reggie Jackson abused while hitting three straight home runs, on three straight pitches, in Game 6 of the 1977 World Series. Like most knuckleballers, Hough was durable; he retired in 1994 as the last active major league player to have been born in the 1940s.

He's since made his way as a pitching coach, including brief stints in that job for the Dodgers and the Mets.

Tom Candiotti — Like Hough, Candiotti never finished in the top ten Cy Young voting. He had a respectable career, though. And he did, however, get to portray a Hall of Fame knuckleballer on film after he retired from baseball.

Candiotti portrayed Hoyt Wilhelm in 61*, Billy Crystal's loving if occasionally factually-challenged revisitation of the Roger Maris-Mickey Mantle home run chase of 1961. The scene in question: Baltimore manager Paul Richards brought Wilhelm in late to face Maris, in a game the Yankees had sewn up to clinch the American League pennant but in which Maris had already hit number 59 … and might yet have another in him, since he'd hit several long fouls and a to-the-wall fly out otherwise. (Maris was trying to hit number 60 at least, under commissioner Ford Frick's arbitrary — and disingenuous — deadline of 154 games.)

Playing Wilhelm, Candiotti cocked his head to one side, with a look of sober determination on his face, as Richards threatened to fine him $5,000 if he threw Maris anything but knuckleballs. Maris (played by Barry Pepper, an actor whose physical resemblance to the real Roger Maris was stupefying) grounded out feebly back to the box, Wilhelm (Candiotti) picking it up toward the first base line and — with an unmistakably somber look on his face — tagging Maris out gently on the chest.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 6:19 PM | Comments (0)

July 2, 2012

LeBron's Ring Ushers in a New-Look NBA

With two years of hindsight, The Decision can now take its place as the transcendent moment professional basketball sees once in a generation. Like it or not, the Miami Heat's title solidifies their place on a new Axis of Dominance that will define the NBA for the remainder of this decade. As surely as the Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs have gone the way of the latest Tom Cruise marriage, we can be as equally certain the Association will look very different next season. It has to. LeBron James is now a winner.

It was only a year ago when we joked how James never went to college because he couldn't hack the finals, how he'll never write a book because he can't come up with a title, how he can't make change for a buck because he never has a fourth quarter. But all that ended a fortnight ago. He no longer carries small change so don't even bother asking.

There is still a bastion of haters claiming this year's playoffs would have turned out differently had Derrick Rose not torn his ACL. And they're right. Up until the Finals. Ultimately, it would have been Chicago rather than Boston helping the Heat pack for OKC. You'd have to be ignorant or petty to discount LeBron's postseason and his determination to carry Miami all the way.

But, of course, ignorance and petulance will always be part of the constitution of the professional sports fan. They are the tools we use to mask the misdeeds of athletes we like and accentuate them in those we don't. They are the differentiators that allow some of us to wear red shirts on Sundays and display Kobe bobbleheads on our desktops, and others to append asterisks to NFL standings and giggle over lame jokes about making change for a buck. If you're not liked, we'll find some way to keep you down for as long as we can.

Somehow, I missed the affront that The Decision was supposed to be to me as a basketball fan. Sure, LeBron screwed Cleveland, so why do I have to take it personally? In wanting to move on, he was no different than Art Modell or BP Oil or even C-Town's own incumbent congressman. Before The Decision, Cleveland was the butt of every joke not already incorporating New Jersey as its punch line. It was never a place we seemed particularly proud of. When visitors came, we'd tuck it away like it was Cousin Marilyn in an old Munsters episode.

But then this guy we've been hypercritical of since SI anointed him the Chosen One as a high school junior leaves town and suddenly Cleveland is Rocky I, Seabiscuit, and the Little Engine That Could, all rolled into one. For a week in July 2010, I obviously forgot my place in a country overrun with bleeding hearts who would appoint themselves protectors of the downtrodden.

I've got a friend who's a St. Louis Cardinals fan. Albert Pujols screwed him last fall, but that didn't mean I had to send him a Christmas card. Hey, I live in Boston. Bruins goalie Tim Thomas is screwing us right now. I'm still waiting for my floral arrangement from the bosom of America. At least we've given you Boston baked beans, Boston cream pie, and an accent that makes the rest of the country sound like honors students in their elocution class at finishing school. Other than keeping Rush out of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, what has Cleveland ever done for anyone?

LeBron couldn't win in Cleveland but he can, has, and will continue to in Miami. America, get over it. Or come to terms with your real issue. LeBron is the most dominant player in the game today. In time, he'll surpass Bryant on our lists of the all-time greats, and may even approach Russell and M.J. That shakes the pillars of the shrines we've erected to those demigods we idolized as younger fans, the ones who never had to change uniforms to win rings, who did it the way our newfound puritanical values say is the right way. The only way.

The Decision was simply an opportunity for us to mask our envy in the name of emotional socialism. Nobody should feel good unless we all feel good, and one of us has been hurting since their favorite son went off with the fatted calf. If we're really so concerned about Cleveland's welfare, let's help shovel bone meal onto their economy, or go over there some Saturday morning with Hefty bags and clean up the lakefront. I for one am no longer going to wear black for their cause. It's summer, I feel good, and I'm rocking the whites.

Come October, we'll have Kevin Garnett back in Boston for another three years. Cleveland will evidently have their newest Chosen One even longer. And every city will still be hating on the Heat. But it will nevertheless be a new-look NBA.

We will never again see LeBron as a loser.

* * *

Will you be placing a bet on an upcoming NBA game? Make sure you do all of your betting online at Coral today. Don't miss out on their fantastic betting tips and odds!

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 8:22 PM | Comments (1)

Five Predictions By the Late Casey Stengel

I had a strange visitation during the night a couple nights ago. I was awakened by a faint glow in the bedroom and the sound of a slight breeze. I knew I hadn't left any lights on and the air conditioner wasn't running, so I woke up to find out what was going on.

What I saw, hovering at the end of my bed, was a ghostly figure, short and stout with slicked-back gray hair, bushy eyebrows, and a bulbous nose. At first I thought it was Spencer Tracy, but that didn't seem right. Then I thought it was Jimmy Durante, but that wasn't right, either. Finally, I figured it out. It was Casey Stengel! I wondered what he was doing in my room at such a late hour.

"I have seen the future," he said, "and it is before us."

"Wait a minute," I thought. "Who does this guy think he is, Yogi Berra?"

He sort of gave me "the look" and then proceeded to say, "There are five things that will happen by the end of this baseball season, and for some odd reason I've been sent to tell you what they are."

"Why me?" I asked.

"Because you need all the help you can get with your next baseball article," he said wryly, "and I'm here to help."

"Okay, thanks, I guess," I responded. "So what are these five things?"

"Well, first of all, your beloved Dodgers are going to fall out of the playoff chase after the break and be all but forgotten by September. With Matt Kemp dealing with injury issues and Andre Ethier having to carry the whole team by himself, they won't be able to keep up with the rest of the NL leaders. Besides, their pitching is starting to wane a little, and Clayton Kershaw isn't in the same groove that he was in last year when he won the Cy Young Award."

I wasn't amused by those comments, but I could certainly see why he would think that.

"Secondly, two teams in the AL East will finish the season with losing records, although not by very much. Even though all five teams are currently above .500, there's no way that all of them can continue to win at that clip. Besides, they all play each other a few more times the rest of the way and someone's bound to falter."

Hmmm, I figured that everyone in that division has the potential to finish at .500 or better, but I know Casey's seen a lot of baseball over the years so he should know what he's talking about.

"Next, there will not be another no-hitter this year. If you look at past seasons when there have been multiple no-nos, most of the time they tend to come in bunches. Sure, there's the occasional late-season straggler who tosses zeros across the board, but this year the bunch ended with Matt Cain's perfect game. Besides, the pitching gods have decided that two perfect games in one season is where the line should be drawn for no-hitters. They don't want a repeat of 2010."

That doesn't seem quite fair, but who am I to argue with the baseball gods?

"Next, Jim Thome will retire at the end of this season. Getting shipped off to Baltimore for a couple of single-A players doesn't bode well for his value. Besides, if the O's happen to win the title this year (which they won't; wait for my last prediction), Thome will have nothing left to prove from his career. He already has his 600 home runs, is one of the most respected players in the game, and is becoming more prone to injury than in the past."

As much as I like Jim Thome, and I'd like to see him come add some veteran leadership and a little pop to Seattle's offensive lineup, I find it hard to disagree with ol' Case on this one.

"Finally, the Texas Rangers will win the World Series, at long last. If they can continue to win at the rate they are doing so now, and with no clear-cut challenger from the National League, the Rangers should have no trouble taking the Fall Classic. Now, I know that they should have won last year, and there have been many instances throughout baseball history where the team with the best record didn't win the Series, but I have a feeling that this is their year."

I can agree with that. It seems that Texas has what it takes to bring the first championship to Arlington.

After a moment of awkward silence, he finally said, "Well, I'd better get going. It's getting light out, you need to get ready for work, and I gotta get back to that cornfield in Iowa before they turn the lights off. It's been nice talking to ya."

And with that, he vanished.

Now, whether or not the ghost of Casey Stengel actually visited my bedroom, or if it was just the pepperoni pizza with extra jalapeños talking, these five predictions will be worth watching to see if they actually pan out. If they do, I'm a baseball genius. If they don't, I can blame it on Casey … or the pizza.

Posted by Adam Russell at 11:22 AM | Comments (0)