Sox Take a Look in Rearview

If the Boston Red Sox thought they could just cruise into the playoffs without getting a fight from the Evil Empire, they'd better think again. Darth Steinbrenner and his $200 million dollar-plus payroll came knocking on the door in the AL East Friday morning.

With a loss Thursday at home in Fenway to the Oakland Athletics, and a come-from-behind win by the Yankees in St. Petersburg, the Yankees are only a game and a half out of the AL East and a half game out of the wildcard. Wasn't it just about a week or two ago that everyone including yours truly had written off the Yankees for dead? Well, I guess I should clarify here, I was hoping the Yankees were dead. I feared that their bats would come alive as they have now.

The Yankees defended their homefield last weekend with perhaps their last chance to take a stab at the defending champs and they drew blood. They proved that they could beat Boston even with the torn-up staff that they have. Randy Johnson pitched a masterful 1-0 win over Tim Wakefield. And even without the aid of alleged "ace" Mike Mussina (elbow tendonitis), rookie sensation Aaron Small was able to step up and defeat Boomer in another game. Curt Schilling showed shades of last year's postseason as he went eight innings giving up only two runs when he beat Shawn Chacon to salvage at least a game in the series.

So what has gone wrong for the Red Sox these last couple of weeks that have allowed the Yankees to creep oh-so-close once again. For one thing, the Sox have tradition working against them. The Yankees have won the AL East every year from 1998-2004 and they also won it in '94 (unofficial due to the strike) and '96. The Red Sox last won the AL East in 1995 and before that, 1990.

But we can't forget what's happened the last few seasons in the playoffs. For many Major League Baseball franchises entering the playoffs division championships have not always led to World Series championships. The last four World Series champs have been wildcard winners, including the Sox last season.

The biggest thing working against the Sox this season is their lack of a go to pitcher down the stretch. The Yankees are having the same problem and that's why they've been so inconsistent all season. But if you look at the Big Unit's numbers, especially recently, he is becoming their go-to guy. Since July, Johnson is 7-3 with an ERA of 3.49 and has 94 strikeouts. Overall, he's 14-8 this season with an ERA under four. He ranks seventh in wins, and second in both strikeouts and complete games.

Schilling, since coming off of his ankle surgery, has been anything but a go-to-guy. This season Schilling is 6-8 with an ERA of 6.20. His stint in the bullpen was equally shaky. He hasn't had his "ace" stuff of a year ago when he went 21-6. He looks more like that ALCS Game 1 when he was rocked in Yankees Stadium.

However, Schilling has had moments where he's looked like his old self. Last weekend was a perfect example against the Yankees when he lasted a season-high eight innings striking out six while hurling 105 pitches.

But then there are games like the one against Oakland Thursday night where he is an absolute enigma. The A's started off the game with three-straight hits against Schilling. He threw 67 pitches in the first three innings, and 115 pitches in 6.2 while giving up 11 hits.

In watching the games, you can't help to notice that Schilling just doesn't have the same zip on his fastball. And when he doesn't have hitters fearing his fastball, he's not going to be able to dominate with his breaking balls and off-speed stuff. And it's not just his velocity on the fastball that he's lacking. Schilling is missing his location on his fastball many times, as well. And the result is what you saw on Thursday and what you've been seeing most of the season: a shelling.

The Sox knew coming into this season that Schilling was going to miss some significant time due to his ankle injury that everybody in the entire world is completely tired of hearing about. The FOX network covered the infamous "bloody sock" more than they did the actual game. I've never seen so many close-ups of a blood-drenched sock and I hope I never do again.

With that knowledge, Theo Epstein went out and tried to reload for another run at the championship. He brought in Matt Clement, David Wells, held on to Wakefield, and let 30 wins go in the form of Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe. Clement and Wells have been sufficient, especially Clement who has shown he may be able to be an ace in the near future. But in September, your team must have an ace now and the Sox do not.

Lucky for them, they have one of the most formidable lineups in baseball, led by the two-headed monster that are their three and four hitters. Over the last two seasons, Manny Ramirez and David "Big Pap" Ortiz have combined for 161 home runs and an astounding 522 RBI. The two have absolutely destroyed AL pitching since being put back to back in the order.

And if you've got any sense at all, you've got to vote Big Papi the MVP of this season. Ortiz is the first Sock since Carl Yastrzemski to post back-to-back 40 home run seasons. Papi leads the league in RBI with 131, he's third in homeruns with 42, and he has more clutch hits than anybody this season. Seventeen of his homers have either tied or given Boston the lead this season. No one is more valuable to their team in terms of performance. If you take Ortiz's bat out of this lineup, the Sox would be a few games back fighting for the wildcard.

However, in the clubhouse and to the Boston pitching staff, there is one person more valuable than Papi. That person is the first Boston team captain since Yaz, catcher Jason Varitek. His verbal and exemplary leadership skills may have been what got the Red Sox their World Series championship a year ago. Some say his glove punch into pretty boy Alex Rodriguez's face is what sparked the turn-around in the middle of last season. His handling of the pitching staff (outside of Tim Wakefield, of course) is unparalleled. And he's earned his money from his contract this season, his numbers are right on course with his career averages: .284, 21 dongs, and 66 runs batted-in.

Johnny Damon has also been a big contributor again this season. The man who still resembles "Cirroc, Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer" has followed up his 94 RBI season with another stellar .320, 9 homer, 72 RBI year. Some have even put him in the race for MVP. And he's not just doing it with the bat, either. His glove is one of the best in the majors at centerfield, and his leaping and running grabs have delighted the Boston faithful. He might have to calm his acrobatics in the field, however, as he is just coming off of an injury to his left rotator cuff.

My predictions for the remainder of the Red Sox season may not delight the faithful as much as their beloved hipster. Boston has four series left after they finish this series with Oakland. They face the Devil Rays for three, a depleted Baltimore team for three, Toronto for four, and they end with the Yankees in a three-game series at home against the Yankees that could decide the AL East.

With that schedule, there's no reason the champs shouldn't be back in the playoffs. However, that doesn't mean that they'll go back to the World Series. Last season, the Sox had four pitchers that could shut you down on any given night in October: Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, and Wakefield. Their bullpen was lights-out, as well, with Keith Foulke shutting everyone down in the ALCS and World Series. This year, their most dependable pitcher in the rotation and/or the bullpen is Mike Timlin. That's not a good sign.

I don't think the Sox make it out of the ALCS this year. I think the Angels (if they get in) have a chance to knock them out, and I hate to say it, but if the Yanks get in they have a great shot to beat the Sox, too. They just don't have the guns to come out and shut down the high-powered offenses this year like they did last year.

However, if Schilling can return to form before October and a guys like Matt Clement and David Wells can step it up in the clutch, they could be right back where they were. Because it's been proven, look at the Cardinals/Sox World Series of last season, good pitching beats good hitting.