Pro Football Hall of Fame 2006 Thoughts

Five Quick Hits

* The Winter Olympics simply are not as interesting as the Summer Olympics.

* Mike Martz was Detroit's new offensive coordinator, then he wasn't, and now he really is. Can the man do anything without drama?

* It's way too early for serious predictions, but right now no team looks better for Super Bowl XLI than New England.

* I haven't seen enough of Reggie Bush to know if he's really the second coming of Gale Sayers, but if he's not, Houston should try to trade the first pick in April's draft.

* Does ESPN want people to watch "MNF" with the sound off? Who picked that announcing crew?

***

Longtime readers know that there are few things I pay more attention to than the Pro Football Hall of Fame. A new class was elected to the Hall last week, and in the wake of Pittsburgh's Super Bowl win, there's a great deal of speculation about the future of the black and gold in Canton. Actually, it's mostly been statement, not speculation, but we'll get to that.

The Class of 2006

The same question we ask every year: were all the inductees deserving?

Yes, mostly. I don't feel that Troy Aikman has any place in the Hall, but I've discussed that before, and everyone knew going into this process that Aikman was a lock to make it. The other five members of the class — Harry Carson, John Madden, Warren Moon, Reggie White, and Rayfield Wright — are all very deserving.

White was a lock in every way. Moon made nine Pro Bowls and put together some of the most impressive career passing totals in NFL history. He was probably the league's best QB for a couple of years in the early 1990s. Carson, a leader on New York's defense during its Super Bowl years, was also chosen for nine Pro Bowls, and he would have gotten in years ago if he hadn't been overshadowed by Lawrence Taylor.

Madden and Wright were the Seniors Candidates. Madden has the highest career winning percentage of any coach with more than 100 wins. The Hall's standards for coaches have lowered recently, with the inductions of Marv Levy, George Allen, and Hank Stram, and Madden probably was about that level as a coach. I'd have voted for him.

Wright becomes the first Cowboy offensive lineman in the Hall of Fame. Tom Landry put together some exceptional offenses, and Wright was the best offensive lineman on most of them. He deserves a place in Canton.

Who Got Snubbed?

Usually, I lead this segment with Art Monk and the last-round finalists who didn't make it, but the most deserving player turned away this year was Thurman Thomas. Overshadowed by Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith, Thomas was a no-brainer, first-ballot talent. He had eight consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, led the NFL in yards from scrimmage four years in a row, and was NFL MVP in 1991. But Thomas will get in next year. Monk won't.

I've written extensively about Monk's case, and I only have one thing to add. Paul Zimmerman, Sports Illustrated's otherwise fantastic Dr. Z, recently argued against Monk's candidacy, writing that, "when you played the Redskins, you didn't say, 'How can I stop Art Monk?'" I'd like to suggest that perhaps that's why Washington went 150-87 and won three Super Bowls with Monk in burgundy and gold. If you're not concerned about stopping a guy who breaks league records for receptions in a season and a career, you're going to lose a lot of games. Monk was the team's receiving leader during its 1982 and 1991 Super Bowl seasons, during which the team went a combined 29-3 (.906).

Other guys who probably deserve to be enshrined were turned away, as well, but the only other controversy this year involved Michael Irvin. The Hall's by-laws are very clear that only on-field activity should be considered, but many fans believe that Irvin's drug-related arrests have hindered his candidacy. If I had to guess, I think it's probably true that one or two voters penalized Irvin for his off-field transgressions. On the other hand, Taylor was a first-ballot selection, and he had multiple cocaine arrests and a drug-related suspension from the league.

The real reason Irvin didn't make it this year is that the competition was too tough. I mean, Thurman Thomas couldn't get in. Next year's class will be competitive, too, but Irvin will have a shot. Aikman's induction will help him, because teammates often split votes. One problem Monk is having is that he's splitting his Washington votes with Russ Grimm, and the wide receiver votes with Irvin. It's not a coincidence that John Stallworth got in one year after Lynn Swann was finally off the ballot.

Next Year's Class

Skill Positions

Thomas is almost certain to make it, and for the first time in four years, there won't be any quarterbacks. Terrell Davis and Ricky Watters will be eligible for the first time, although I don't expect either to be elected on the first ballot. Davis might make it eventually, but Watters will never be a finalist. Herschel Walker and Watters deserve more serious consideration than they'll get.

The receiver position will be the most crowded. Monk and Irvin should be the leading candidates, but Andre Reed and Henry Ellard are also on the ballot. None of the eligible tight ends has gotten much support, and from the so-called "skill positions," the likely finalists will be Thomas, Irvin, Monk, and (probably) Davis. Only Thomas, though, is a good bet to make the final cut. I guess Irvin would probably be next.

Offensive Line

The offensive line has gotten backed up recently, with no modern candidates inducted since the Class of 2003, and no first-ballot enshrinees since Jackie Slater in 2001. That will change next year, when Bruce Matthews becomes eligible. Chosen to more Pro Bowls than any other player in NFL history, Matthews is the closest thing to a lock in 2007.

Other than Matthews, the potential finalists are Dermontti Dawson, Grimm, Joe Jacoby, Bob Kuechenberg, Randall McDaniel, and Gary Zimmerman. Kuechenberg will have his last good shot. A lot of the people who liked Carson also liked Kooch, and sentiment's been building around the guy. I'd bet against him, but he has a better chance than the others listed above.

Defensive Line

The problem these guys are having is that the selectors don't agree who the best ones were, so no one (except Reggie White) is getting in. Richard Dent, L.C. Greenwood, and Claude Humphrey have all been finalists since the last time a defensive end was elected. Fred Dean has been a semifinalist each of the last two seasons. I'll never support Dean, Dent, or Greenwood, and I lean toward no on Humphrey, but he seems to be winning more and more people over, and might have a chance in 2007. The lack of support for Chris Doleman puzzles me.

Only one defensive tackle, Dan Hampton, has been enshrined in the last decade. Cortez Kennedy became eligible last year and didn't get past the first round. Neither did Curley Culp, but Culp is the kind of player around whom opinion could quickly coalesce, the way it did for Elvin Bethea and Joe DeLamielleure in 2003. Culp was pro football's first dominant nose tackle, and he had one of his finest games in Super Bowl IV. Next season will be his last on the regular ballot.

If you're looking for predictions, Greenwood and Humphrey will be finalists, and neither will be elected.

Linebacker

No position is more underrepresented in the Hall of Fame than outside linebacker. There are only five: Bobby Bell, Jack Ham, Ted Hendricks, Taylor, and Dave Wilcox. And teams use two outside LBs. Most teams have only one inside backer, but there are 10 of them in Canton. In theory, those numbers should be reversed. In practice, middle linebackers have historically been the most dominant defensive players on the field, but there's a serious shortage of OLBs in the Hall, which inclines me to support Kevin Greene and Derrick Thomas. Greene has gotten nowhere in two years of eligibility, but Thomas is close.

Unsurprisingly, though, it's a middle linebacker, Randy Gradishar, who has the best chance of being enshrined in 2007. Gradishar was a key member of Denver's Orange Crush defense in the late 1970s, and he was a very good player, but I see him as a borderline player. In my mind Gradishar is comparable to Nick Buoniconti, who's in, but not to any of the other linebackers in the Hall. He and Thomas will be finalists, and for now I expect Gradishar to get in.

Defensive Back

Competition in the secondary is going way up with the eligibility of LeRoy Butler and Carnell Lake. They'll be going up against former finalists Lester Hayes and Roger Wehrli, both of whom I support. Butler was the premier strong safety of the 1990s, and that's another underrepresented position. I'd vote for Kenny Easley and Steve Atwater, too, but Butler has a better chance. It's hard to say exactly how the selectors will react to Butler and Lake, but I'd expect both to make the semifinals. Wehrli will be a finalist, and he could get in if no other DBs get past the semis.

Special Teams

The only guys worth discussing are Steve Tasker and Ray Guy. I thought Tasker would have a chance, but he's been on the ballot four times now and he never goes anywhere. Tasker will never make it. Guy is widely regarded as the best punter in history, but his subpar statistics work against him, and it's tough to argue a player who's good for nothing but field position. He'll be a finalist again at some point (not next year), but he's never getting a bust.

Coach

The same guys get nominated every year, and none of them ever makes it past the first round of voting. I don't know why Don Coryell doesn't get more support, though. He revolutionized the NFL passing game and his Chargers led the league in offense four times in a row, an accomplishment never equaled in the modern era. The new entry next season is Dick Vermeil, but he has no shot. Vermeil is one of the most beloved coaches in history, but his 120-109 career record, plus 6-5 in the playoffs, won't cut it.

Contributors

Always the hardest group to peg. Art Modell, Ralph Wilson, and George Young have been getting the most support. Modell belongs in Canton the way Sean Taylor deserves the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. Young, an accomplished personnel man with the Giants, deserves consideration. Wilson is somewhere in between. I'd like to see Paul Tagliabue, who has presided of the NFL's rise to the pinnacle of North American sports, get in some day. Ed and Steve Sabol, the men behind NFL Films, have done some really good work, and I'm not ready to say yes to either right now, but I'd certainly consider them in the future. Young is the only one likely to be a finalist in 2007, and I think his star has sort of fallen.

Seniors Candidates

I'm not going to try to predict this. Coaches (Allen, Stram, Madden) have been popular recently, so Clark Shaughnessy or Buddy Parker could get a look, but I wouldn't bet on it. I'd like to see Gene Hickerson, who blocked for Jim Brown and Leroy Kelly, get the nod some day. Cliff Harris, the old Cowboys safety, was a finalist a few years ago, and he might get a shot.

15 Finalists

This automatically includes the two Seniors Candidates. My 13 to join them would be: Terrell Davis, Thurman Thomas, Art Monk, Dermontti Dawson, Russ Grimm, Bruce Matthews, Claude Humphrey, Randy Gradishar, Kevin Greene, LeRoy Butler, Kenny Easley, Roger Wehrli, Don Coryell.

Predicted 13: Terrell Davis, Thurman Thomas, Michael Irvin, Art Monk, Russ Grimm, Bob Kuechenberg, Bruce Matthews, Gary Zimmerman, L.C. Greenwood, Claude Humphrey, Randy Gradishar, Derrick Thomas, Roger Wehrli.

Prospects

Since the Steelers won Super Bowl XL, there's been a lot of talk about Jerome Bettis and Bill Cowher going to Canton. I really like both men, but I'm here to tell you that neither one is a lock.

Cowher is 141-82-1 (.632) in the regular season and 12-9 (.571) in the postseason. Every one of his Steeler teams has finished in the top half of the league in total defense and points allowed. Cowher's greatest strength may be his ability to find talented assistants. His current staff includes Grimm, Dick LeBeau, and Ken Whisenhunt, all of whom are head coaching prospects.

That's a very impressive résumé, and Cowher — now 14th in career coaching victories — might get my vote if he retired today. I'd like to see him add a few more successful seasons, though, before the question marks disappear.

You'll notice I haven't mentioned the Super Bowl on Cowher's résumé. That's intentional. Is he a better coach today than he was two weeks ago? I thought before the big game that Cowher was a better coach than Mike Holmgren, and I still do.

The Bus is a trickier subject. Actually, there's nothing tricky, it's just that I don't want to be mean. Bettis does not deserve to make the Hall. In 13 seasons, Bettis never led the league in rushing yards, average, or touchdowns, and he was never regarded as the best running back in the game. To me, that seems like an obvious HOF criterion. If he was never — even at his best — considered the top player at his position, he was merely very good.

Despite consistent performance, Bettis only had three really good seasons. He was a top-10 rusher five times, but in two of those seasons — 1994 and 2000 — he clearly was not one of the top-10 RBs in the league. In '94, he averaged 3.2 yards per carry and rushed for only three touchdowns. In '00, he averaged 3.8 and had under 100 receiving yards. And in both seasons, he barely cracked the top 10 to begin with.

If Bettis is inducted, he will be only the second running back with a career average worse than four yards per carry. The first, John Riggins, retired as the third-leading rusher of all-time, was the second player ever to rush for 100 touchdowns, held the NFL's single-season TD record, and was arguably the greatest postseason rusher of all-time. Riggins once had six straight 100-yard games in the postseason, including his 166-yard MVP performance in Super Bowl XVII. Bettis had only three 100-yard games in the postseason during his career, with a high of 105.

If Bettis is inducted, he will have the fewest rushing TDs of any RB who played during or after 1980, and the lowest rushing TDs per game of any HOF running back who played after the AFL merger. He will have the second-fewest receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs of any RB who played 16-game seasons for his whole career, ahead of only Earl Campbell, who retired after eight seasons.

Bettis is the Rafael Palmeiro of running backs, except that he's probably not a steroid user. The big career numbers are from being good and playing a lot, not from being great. He had a mediocre rushing average, he wasn't a great short-yardage back until past his prime, he couldn't catch, and he was never a big-game player.

The Bus will probably get in — it doesn't hurt that he's so well-liked — but he shouldn't and he isn't a lock.