NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* How about a round of applause for the league? The emphasis on intra-divisional scheduling at season's end has produced the most compelling Week 16 and 17 matchups in recent memory, with lots of significant games. That's a win for fans, and the league deserves credit for bringing it about.

* Houston kicker Neil Rackers this week went 2-for-2 on extra points and 3-for-3 on field goals. Big deal, right? Happens every week. The field goals were 34, 54, and 57 yards. Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski connected from 38, 45, 51, and 59. I can't remember another week, ever, when two kickers made multiple 50-yarders.

* Aaron Rodgers played about as well on Sunday as a quarterback can play. To suggest that he's not on the same level as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Michael Vick is ridiculous. There's no one else, except maybe a healthy Tony Romo, who's comparable to Rodgers.

* Everyone knows the Panthers are bad, but few fans seem to realize how miserable the offense is. Carolina's defense is poor, yes, but it's not the worst in the league. Carolina's offense is among the worst in history. Ten teams have scored more than twice as many points this season as the Panthers.

* Chargers running back Mike Tolbert suffered a scary hit against Cincinnati this weekend, but the injury turned out not to be serious. Tolbert did sprain his neck and shoulder, but has full mobility and is expected to make a full recovery.

***

I love sports statistics. I hate how they're used. When people look at running backs, they usually focus on one category: rushing yards. Average per attempt, touchdowns, receiving, fumbles — nothing else matters. Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles is on the verge of breaking one of the oldest and most important individual records in league history. Through Week 16, Charles has 216 carries for 1,380 yards. That's terrific, the second-highest yardage total in the league, and he's not getting credit for that, either. I bet he won't even make the Pro Bowl unless someone else gets injured.

But did you notice that Charles gained all that yardage on just 216 carries? He's averaging 6.39 yards per attempt. The record, with at least 150 rushes, is 6.40, by Jim Brown in his legendary 1963 season. The only other runners ever to average over six per carry in a season are Hall of Famers Barry Sanders, Joe Perry, and O.J. Simpson. That's right: Jim Brown, Jamaal Charles, Barry Sanders, Joe Perry, O.J. Simpson. I don't think any RB in history has had two great years back-to-back with so little fanfare. In '09, Charles rushed for 1,120 yards with a 5.89 average. He and Brown are the only players to average 5.8 or higher more than once.

The official record is actually 8.45, by Michael Vick, but that's with a minimum of just 100 carries, and all the top guys are quarterbacks or role players. Comparing Charles to Randall Cunningham doesn't really get us anywhere. With a minimum of 150, you get actual running backs facing actual run defenses. If Charles can raise his average, at home against the Raiders in Week 17, by a hundredth of a yard, he'll tie Brown for one of the most important single-season records a running back can hold. This is the RB equivalent of a guy batting .399 on the last day of the season, and no one's paying any attention.

On to the penultimate power ranking of the 2010 season, brackets show previous rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — In NFL history, there are 12 teams that have scored 500 points in a season. The Pats, who have scored at least 30 for seven weeks in a row, are at 480. They have 60 touchdowns this season; no one else even has 50. Over the last four games, New England's defense has allowed just 10 points per game and forced a total of 20 turnovers. Seriously, they're +20 in turnovers over a four-game span, winning by an average of 37-10. This team has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the undefeated '07 Pats did, and not just with the benefit of hindsight. The '07 Pats had an old roster, and for that reason or some other, faded at the end of the season, edging out victories instead of dominating. This year's Pats have taken the opposite course, winning some close ones early and peaking late.

2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — Lost at home, but what a game from the defense. Holding New Orleans to 17 points, with 2 interceptions and a defensive touchdown, is nothing to be ashamed of. Everyone recognizes John Abraham as a star. He has 13 sacks, second in the NFL. The other standouts are DT Jonathan Babineaux, who creates a ton of opportunities for his teammates, and CB Brent Grimes, who has become one of the elite cover men in the league.

Most fantasy league championships were last week. Defensive players usually get left out of fantasy football, but if your opponent was counting on Drew Brees or Marques Colston, why not show your appreciation to Babineaux or Grimes? Use part of your winnings to send them a fruitcake, or a bouquet of flowers (if that's your style), or a simple thank-you note.

Jonathan Babineaux
Atlanta Falcons
4400 Falcon Parkway
Flowery Branch, GA 30542

Other Falcons players can be contacted at the same address. You can also tweet your appreciation to @BGrimes20 or @johnabraham55. These guys can't directly get in on fantasy, but you can let them know you won your league because of them. Conversely, if your opponent had Matt Ryan or Michael Turner:

Jonathan Vilma
c/o New Orleans Saints
5800 Airline Drive
Metairie, LA 70003

3. Baltimore Ravens [4] — What a career Ed Reed has put together. Reed intercepted two passes this weekend, bringing his season total to 6 in only nine games. This was his 10th career multi-interception game. That's seventh-best all-time, and everyone ahead of him either (1) played in the '60s, when there were fewer rules favoring offense, and quarterbacks were less careful with the ball, or (2) is Ronnie Lott. This also marks Reed's seventh season with 5 or more interceptions, tying him for third-best all-time, behind only Hall of Famers Emlen Tunnell and Paul Krause. This doesn't even include his fantastic postseason résumé. Another year or two like this, and I'm ready to declare Reed the greatest defensive back in history — bar none. Already, he's a top-10 safety.

4. Green Bay Packers [6] — Years ago, baseball researchers discovered Pythagorean winning percentage, based on runs scored and allowed. It turns out that this model is a more accurate predictor of the team's future results than win-loss record. Close games are subject to luck, and while a team may win more than its share of nail-biters for a year or two, it usually balances out over the long term. It turns out the same thing applies in football: point differential, adjusted for a team's strength of schedule, is a better judge of the team's true strength than its record. The 9-6 Packers lead the NFC in point differential (+141). The NFC's best: GB, ATL (+105), NO (+87), PHI (+63), CHI (+55), NYG (+44), TB (+13). One of those teams will play at St. Louis (-29) or Seattle (-107) in the postseason, and two of them will miss the playoffs entirely.

5. New Orleans Saints [8] — Overcame 8 penalties (for 92 yards) to beat the Falcons in Atlanta, the first team to do so since ... last year's Saints. The offense made plays when it had to, but the win really belongs to a defense that allowed only 7 points and one drive longer than 30 yards. The Saints have won seven of their last eight and clinched a playoff spot.

Pierre Thomas was productive in the absence of Chris Ivory, but Reggie Bush continues to be ineffective as a ball-carrier. He averages under 3.0 yards per carry, with a lifetime average of 3.92. That's below average for anyone, but it's downright pathetic for a third-down back. I'd like to see what Bush could do if he was used more like a wide receiver. If we could re-draft from 2006, Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, and Vince Young probably wouldn't create much controversy at the top. Instead, how about Maurice Jones-Drew, Haloti Ngata, and Greg Jennings? Or Devin Hester, Nick Mangold, and Vernon Davis? Alternatively, Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Owen Daniels wouldn't be too shabby. Why isn't Charley Casserly still a GM? Bush and Young have shown promise at times, but neither has lived up to the hype.

6. Chicago Bears [10] — Scored 7 points in Week 14, 78 in the two games since. This week's matchup against the Jets was anticipated as a defensive battle, but instead it was an uneven, high-scoring affair. By quarter: 10-0, 7-24, 21-7, 0-3. The Bears were +24 in odd-numbered quarters and -17 in even-numbered quarters. Now that is a back-and-forth game. Chicago's offense played well, and Hester had another good game returning, but the standout may have been DB Chris Harris, who had 10 solo tackles, an interception, and a fumble recovery.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — Actual quote from the Thursday night game, following this play: "That's all Ben Roethlisberger." Matt Millen really said that after Mike Wallace, maybe the fastest player in the league, raced 35 yards after the catch, outrunning Charles Godfrey, Captain Munnerlyn, and Nic Harris on his way to the end zone. I agree that Ben made a nice throw under pressure, but shouldn't more of the credit should go to Wallace? Most receivers don't score on that play. Wallace, sixth in the NFL in receiving yards, is one of the best wideouts in the league. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense has allowed the fewest points in the NFL, holding five of the last six opponents under 20.

8. Philadelphia Eagles [3] — Michael Vick doesn't like getting hit. Blitzing such a dynamic quarterback is always a risk, but leaving the pressure off is an even bigger risk. The Eagles are a good team, and on their good days they can beat anyone, but they haven't played a really dominant game in a month. Now they're guaranteed the third seed in the NFC playoffs, and will probably face a dangerous Green Bay team in the wild card round. Regarding the Vick-for-MVP insistence: last season, the Eagles went 11-5 with Donovan McNabb at QB. This year, they're 11-4 with Vick. I don't deny that he's had a great season, but if he's really the single most valuable player in the NFL, shouldn't the Eagles be better than they were last season?

9. Kansas City Chiefs [14] — Has any individual player been as up-and-down this season as Dwayne Bowe? Breaking down the schedule into thirds, here are Bowe's five best games, his five worst, and the other five:

		Rec	Yds	TD
Best		44	726	10
Med.		16	303	4
Worst	7	69	1

Everyone has some ups and downs, but Bowe is feast or famine. He's basically 10 times as productive in his big games, and only has an average performance about 1/3 of the time. After his player-of-the-month November, Bowe totaled 3 catches for 56 yards and no touchdowns the next three weeks, presumably ruining several fantasy teams. Then he rebounds with another huge performance. It would be nice to see the Chiefs develop a complementary receiver to take some pressure off him.

10. Indianapolis Colts [13] — Playing their starters in Week 17 for the first time since 2006, when they won Super Bowl XLI. This team reminds me of that one. Inconsistent ground game, awful run defense, but suddenly better at the end of the season. The last two weeks, Indianapolis has contained Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden while establishing its own running game. This is the weakest Colts team in years, but it can hang with the Patriots and is fully capable of making a postseason run, especially with San Diego out of the picture.

11. San Diego Chargers [5] — On their good days, the Chargers can be just as dominant as the Patriots. They beat Jacksonville 38-13, Arizona 41-10, Denver 35-14, Indianapolis 36-14, Kansas City 31-0, San Francisco 34-7 ... those are all blowouts, and there are some pretty good teams in there. San Diego ranks second in yards gained and league-best in yards allowed. There's a ton of talent on this roster, and I would have loved to see what San Diego could do in the playoffs, even though the answer is probably "lose". The rest of the AFC has to be less worried about the Chiefs than the Bolts. All that said, the Chargers consistently shot themselves in the foot, lost winnable games they needed, and have no one but themselves to blame. San Diego is 2-5 on the road.

12. New York Giants [9] — Eli Manning threw 4 interceptions in Week 16. It was his fourth game this season with at least 3 picks, and the 10th time in his career. Other active players with at least 10: Brett Favre (39), Kerry Collins (20), Jon Kitna (19), Peyton Manning (15), Drew Brees (12), Matt Hasselbeck (10). The Giants "lead" the NFL, with 41 turnovers, but could still make the postseason. The last playoff team to lead the NFL in turnovers was the St. Louis Rams in 2003. The '01 Rams, who lost Super Bowl XXXVI, were the last playoff team to commit as many as 40 turnovers in a season (actually 44).

13. New York Jets [12] — Three losses in the last four weeks, but they've clinched a playoff spot and can't be counted out against anyone. The Jets have a peculiar habit of winning when they need to, and they've already beaten the current top two seeds in the AFC. If I'm the Jets, I'm rooting for Indianapolis and Oakland in Week 17. I'd want the Colts in my wild card game, not the Chiefs. It's a better style matchup, it's indoors, and the Chiefs are undefeated at home.

14. Oakland Raiders [16] — I swear this summary is about the Raiders, but let's begin by talking about New England. The Patriots take what the defense gives them. Cover the deep stuff, they throw short. Bite on the hooks and slants, they go deep. Put too many defensive backs out there, they'll run all over you. The Raiders are not good enough to do that. They can't let opponents dictate the offense, and when they run 48 pass plays and 17 rush plays, that's not a formula for success. The Colts never led by more than 8, so this wasn't passing to catch up. It was passing your way to self-destruction.

15. Detroit Lions [20] — Clearly moving in the right direction. The Lions have won three straight for the first time since 2007, and consecutive road games for the first time in a single season since 2004. The Lions are only -14 in point differential, and with a big win over the Vikings in Week 17, could become the first Detroit team to outscore its opponents since 1995, when Detroit went 10-6 and finished +100 in point differential. That team was led by Wayne Fontes, Scott Mitchell, Barry Sanders, Herman Moore, and Chris Spielman.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [17] — Holy cow, Josh Freeman. What a game against Seattle: 21/26, 237 yards, 5 TDs, 23 rush yards, no turnovers, 144.2 passer rating. Freeman has played well all year, but that's a rare performance. Here's how the Bucs make the playoffs: win in Week 17, Packers and Giants lose. Tampa has lost three of its last five.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [15] — David Garrard has not had a bad season. He's got a 90.8 passer rating, he's +8 in TD/INT differential, and he's one of the best running QBs in the league. He's not elite, but he's pretty clearly a solid starter, not someone who needs to be replaced. That said, he can't win games. Take away the Jags' running game, and it's unlikely that Garrard will make enough plays to win. Facing a Washington defense that was missing its best pass rusher and its top three safeties, Jacksonville managed just 17 points and lost at home. Garrard led the team in rushing, with 39 yards and a touchdown.

18. Miami Dolphins [19] — Is anyone actually going to keep the same coach in 2011 that it had entering 2010? It sounds like Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is going to fire Tony Sparano. This is a coach who took over a 1-15 team that hadn't made the playoffs in six years. In three seasons, they're 25-22 with a division title. You're going to fire this guy after only three seasons, two of them decent and the other Coach of the Year quality? That's insane. Get a new quarterback; keep the coach.

19. Dallas Cowboys [11] — Last season, the Cowboys had a top-10 defense. This year, bottom-10. Only the Broncos have allowed more points. I've heard several paid analysts bash Jon Kitna, blaming him for the Cowboys' loss to Arizona. It's true that Kitna threw 2 interceptions, both returned for touchdowns, and that those INT returns were the difference in the game. But I don't see how you blame Kitna if you actually watched Saturday's game. The first throw was perfect, but the receiver fell down. The second pass was a little behind Roy Williams, but he got both hands on the ball. I know Stephen McGee had one gorgeous pass to Miles Austin, but if Kitna had played the whole game, Dallas probably would have won.

20. Minnesota Vikings [24] — The coaches deserve a ton of credit for the Tuesday night upset. Joe Webb looked like Michael Vick, Percy Harvin looked like Reggie Wayne, and Adrian Peterson looked like himself. The offense kept Michael Vick off the field, but the defense deserves the real credit, forcing three turnovers and repeatedly putting Vick on the ground. Antoine Winfield obviously had a big game, Jared Allen is an underrated run defender, and Chad Greenway really is the best defensive player on the team, one of the most underappreciated players in the NFL.

21. Buffalo Bills [18] — In the last four weeks, they're 2-2, but the losses were by a combined 55 points. The Bills, at 4-11, are tied for the second-worst record in the NFL, and so can expect a very high pick in April's draft. Without knowing who's going to be available, I'd like to see them go after a defensive lineman or a pass-rushing OLB.

22. Cincinnati Bengals [29] — With both of the team's high-profile wide receivers sidelined by injury, Carson Palmer had his best game of the season: 16-of-21, 269 yards, 4 TDs, 157.2 passer rating, no sacks or interceptions. This against the top-ranked defense in the NFL. Is there any team in the league that Terrell Owens or Sideshow Chad can still help at this point in their careers? I don't believe there is.

23. St. Louis Rams [26] — After all the hand-wringing about a sub-.500 division champ, it's probably not going to happen. The Rams are 7-8, and they're favored against the Seahawks in Week 17, which would give St. Louis an 8-8 record and the NFC West crown. In 2009, the Rams, Buccaneers, and Chiefs posted a combined record of 8-40. This season, all of them could make the playoffs. Most of that is a scheduling fluke. Against teams with winning records, those three are a combined 3-11 (.214).

24. Tennessee Titans [21] — Kerry Collins completed just 14-of-37 pass attempts against Kansas City. For the season, Collins' passer rating is 77.4, compared to 98.6 for Vince Young. Collins is 37, and this is his second straight season getting badly outplayed by a guy the coaches don't want around. If the coaching staff really can't coexist with Young, the team needs to bring in someone new. Say this, though: Collins' arm strength isn't going anywhere. On Sunday, teammate William Hayes got a concussion when a ball thrown away by Collins hit him on the head.

25. Cleveland Browns [25] — Once 5-7, they've lost three straight and have gone a month without scoring 20 points in a game. Sometimes you see a team rise up to save the job of a coach rumored to be in trouble. The Browns are doing the opposite. I think Eric Mangini has done some good things and deserves another season, but Wayne Fontes he is not. If young players like Colt McCoy, Peyton Hillis, and Joe Haden continue to develop, this could be a competitive team in 2011. Biggest offseason priority: receivers.

26. San Francisco 49ers [22] — What a weird time to fire Mike Singletary. I never particularly liked Singletary as a coach, but I hate firing these guys during the season, and I hate firing them before they've had a realistic chance to succeed. This move meets both of those criteria. I could understand if we were in the middle of the season, but what, you really couldn't wait a week to let Singletary finish up the season and leave with a little more dignity? How is a guy the answer, and then 31 games later, he's not any more? Singletary took over a team virtually devoid of talent, and if he didn't raise it to new heights, he didn't sink the ship, either.

What I don't get is when a team hires someone like Josh McDaniels or Singletary, who makes it clear up front that he has a particular vision for the team and wants to assemble a locker room that squares with what he envisions, then dumps the guy before he's had time to do what he told you he needed to. It's like firing a college HC before he can coach any of the guys he recruited. It doesn't make sense, and it isn't fair. This has been a bush league, bottom tier organization ever since Eddie DeBartolo was forced to sell the team, and it will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

27. Washington Redskins [28] — A good QB switch requires diabolical timing. When benching one player (like Donovan McNabb or Kyle Orton) for another who is clearly not as good, you have to make the new guy look better, so be sure to do it when you have several weak defenses coming up on the schedule. For instance, the Cowboys and Jaguars, who rank 31st and 26th, respectively, in points allowed. Facing Jacksonville's defense, which has allowed opponents a collective passer rating of 97.0 (second-worst in the NFL), Rex Grossman completed less than half his passes, threw an interception, and completed only one pass over 12 yards, compiling a 60.0 rating. But the defense played well, Washington won anyway, and the move to Grossman is hailed as not totally idiotic. It is totally idiotic.

28. Arizona Cardinals [31] — Jay Feely is obviously team MVP. He's 24-of-27 on field goals, with no misses from inside 40 yards, and perfect on extra points. He's hit 53- and 55-yarders, the game-winner in Dallas, and even rushed for a touchdown in Week 14. The Cardinals gained only 10 first downs on Saturday, compared to 24 for Dallas. John Skelton showed poise and promise, but if I'm Arizona, I'd rather keep him around as the backup than rely on him to be the starter in 2011.

29. Denver Broncos [32] — Still the worst defense in the NFL, but Tim Tebow is 1-1 as starter. After falling behind 17-0, Denver took advantage of Houston's equally porous defense and unusual play-calling (only 6 rush attempts) to mount a 300-yard, 24-point second half comeback. Tebow carried 10 times for 27 yards and a touchdown. I know he's not a conventional quarterback, but how do you average 2.7 yards per rush? Against the Texans! Goal-line specialists get more than that.

30. Houston Texans [23] — Second four-game losing streak since the bye, 1-8 over that span. That includes six losses to teams with winning records, but in the last two weeks, Houston has dropped winnable games against Tennessee and Denver. The shining light in this miserable season has been second-year RB Arian Foster, who leads the NFL in rushing yards, rushing first downs, rushing TDs, yards from scrimmage, total first downs, and total TDs. He's also top-10 in yards per carry (4.9). If the Texans can keep their defense healthy, they'll present a lot of challenges in 2011.

31. Seattle Seahawks [27] — Five losses in their last six, all by more than two touchdowns. Here's everyone the Seahawks have beaten in the last two months: the Cardinals and Panthers. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst, who is 28 but had never played in a regular-season game before the loss at Tampa, will start against the Rams in Week 17, with a division title on the line.

32. Carolina Panthers [30] — Thursday's game was only the second or third time this season I've seen the Panthers. Man, they're awful. Maybe Jimmy Clausen will be a serviceable pro quarterback one day, but right now this team does not have an NFL-level QB. Rather than drafting a quarterback and throwing him to the wolves in 2011, why not get a veteran and use the draft to provide him with some blockers and receivers? Gotta walk before you can run, Panthers, and right now, you're barely crawling.