Watch CBS these days and you will certainly be deluged with images of the 2004 Masters, most notably Phil Mickelson's final putt and celebratory leap on the 18th green. Not shown in those commercials is the face of Ernie Els, the tournament runner-up. Els, who would have faced Mickelson in a playoff had the now-famous putt lipped out, dashed away from Augusta as soon as the putt fell. Frustrated and irritated, Els left Augusta with a bitter taste in his mouth.
But 2005 sees Els at the top of his game again. He has yet to finish out of the top 25 in any of the five PGA Tour events he has played this season. Though his best finish was only second place at the Sony Open, he has won twice already internationally.
Plus, Els continues to have the right game to win the Masters. He's impossibly long off the tee, meaning he will attack Augusta's notoriously difficult hole locations with short irons, while most other players are forced to use less lofted clubs. He's ranked fourth on the tour in putting, the other key skill needed to have a chance at the Green Jacket.
Fact is, Augusta National provides a huge advantage to experienced players who have played the course many times in their careers. Besides getting over the mental hurdle associated with playing in the most famous golf tournament in the world, experience also breeds familiarity with the severe slopes and speeds of Augusta's greens. Els, therefore, has the game and the knowledge to succeed at Augusta.
And though he has never won the Masters, Els has certainly been successful. His last five appearances at the Masters, starting in 2000, goes like this: second place, tied for sixth, tied for fifth, tied for sixth, and second last year. Els has had one arm into the Green Jacket on multiple occasions, only to have it ripped away by someone else, most recently Phil Mickelson.
But Els should look no further than Mickelson for encouragement this year. It was Mickelson, remember, who finished third for three straight agonizing years before winning last year. When he broke, through, Mickelson credited Jack Nicklaus' major championship strategy with helping him win his first. Nicklaus' theory was that as long as he could get himself in contention year after year in the majors, then the wins would naturally come. Well, for Els, that win is overdue. This could be his year.
Who else has a chance? Maybe it is better to first eliminate some players from consideration. Major-less twenty-somethings not named Tiger Woods usually lack the experience necessary to succeed at Augusta, so names like Adam Scott, Chad Campbell, and Luke Donald are highly unlikely to win. Sergio Garcia, who fits that mold, should win the Masters someday, but not until he improves his putting. Foreign players also seem to struggle at Augusta, so the chances are slim for Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke. And today's game is a power game, so veterans like Bernhard Langer and Jay Haas probably do not have the weapons to tame Augusta. Even Jose Maria Olazabal, a two-time Green Jacket winner who has been playing very well this season, probably will not be able to keep up with the younger, more powerful players in the field.
Tiger Woods is an obvious choice and is Vegas' favorite this week, but his best finish at Augusta in the past two years is tied for 15th. And though he has shown flashes of his 2000 form that produced the "Tiger Slam," he has been very inconsistent, as exemplified by his disappointing 53rd place finish at the Players Championship.
Phil Mickelson has again designed his early season schedule in a way that gives him the best chance to win this tournament. He's the defending champ, and he's finished in the top three in each of the last four years. He's playing scary golf right now, winning twice already and breaking course records along the way. He should be Els' toughest competition.
Vijay Singh, the world's number one player, won the Masters in 2000 and has finished in the top 10 in each of the last three years. But Singh's putter has looked shaky in big moments lately — he missed a two-foot putt to lose a playoff to Padraig Harrington at the Honda Classic — and he has not won a major where the top players in the world were in contention since 2000.
Retief Goosen is a popular pick, but his only good finish at Augusta was in 2002 when he finished second. Goosen's steady approach will not provide the same advantage at Augusta that it does at the more exacting U.S. Open.
While Els is this column's pick, there is one longshot we should not overlook. Davis Love III reduced the number of tournaments he played in early 2005 in order to prepare for two tournaments: The Players Championship and Augusta. Love's tied for eighth the Players was his best finish this season. Last year, Love quietly finished in sixth place. Perhaps his preparation this season will be enough to make him the player that snags the Green Jacket from Els this season.
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