I Hate Mondays: NFL Mock Draft (2)

Last week, I examined the top five teams selecting in the 2006 NFL draft and here's a sensible mock draft:

1. Reggie Bush (Houston Texans)
2. AJ Hawk (New Orleans Saints)
3. Matt Leinart (Tennessee Titans)
4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson (New York Jets)
5. Mario Williams (Green Bay Packers)

Here is a look at the remaining five teams in the top 10:

San Francisco 49ers

Year two of the Mike Nolan era in San Francisco has begun somewhat quietly as the new coaching staff continues to plug in their own players. Seven starters from last season, QB Tim Rattay, FB Fred Beasley, WR Brandon Lloyd, LB Julian Peterson, LB Andre Carter, CB Ahmed Plummer, and LB Jamie Winborn are gone, while G Larry Allen and WR Antonio Bryant are the only additions to the revamped starting lineup. While the offensive line is now a solid unit, it is contingent on the health of C Jeremy Newberry, and the 49ers have a plethora of other holes to fill through the draft.

What Makes Sense

The 49ers were lucky to win the coin toss, which slotted them one spot ahead of the Oakland Raiders, because that will allow them to select TE Vernon Davis. Had it been the other way around, the Raiders likely would have nabbed him. Davis has wide receiver speed and tight end strength, which will make him an ideal mismatch in the middle of the field.

Furthermore, he will be used as a safety valve for Alex Smith, who was often looking for a reliable pair of hands to throw to. This type of tight end/quarterback relationship was instrumental in the maturation of Drew Brees. The 49ers have a decent running game, and with continued growth from Smith and reasonable production from Bryant and Davis, the worst-ranked offense should vastly improve.

What Else Makes Sense

The 49ers should be wary of other teams trying to trade up to the fifth spot in the draft to steal their thunder and their coveted tight end. If that is the case, the 49ers will likely look to address their defensive secondary. CB/S Michael Huff seems to make the most sense, since he can fill the free safety void which has haunted the 49ers for a couple of seasons.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have brought back Art Shell and with him, they plan to implement a heavy dose of discipline. Their offseason to this point has been moderately positive as they've swapped out QB Kerry Collins for Aaron Brooks and made a couple of half-decent defensive acquisitions. There is no question that they still need a lot of help on the defensive side of the fence and that is likely what they will address with their first selection.

What Makes Sense

As long as Michael Huff is on the board, he should be the main focus of the Raiders. The Black and Silver ranked dead last in interceptions last season and only have 14 over the past two years. Their safety play has been shoddy at best and Huff would be an instant upgrade in the secondary, especially with his nose for the ball. He is a gifted play-maker with blazing speed and would start from day one.

What Else Makes Sense

The Raiders' defense was downright despicable last season, but owner Al Davis loves his teams to be offensive-minded and high-scoring. If that is the case, selecting TE Vernon Davis, if he's still around, would give opposing defensive coordinators nightmares. Many people like the idea of selecting QB Vince Young, but learning behind Aaron Brooks is not ideal and a team like Oakland might be too tempted to rush him into the lineup, which could further impede his development.

Buffalo Bills

There are few teams heading into the 2006 season in worse shape than the Buffalo Bills. Their offseason signings include reaches for marginal talents like DT Larry Triplett, C Melvin Fowler, S Matt Bowen, and TE Robert Royal. The offensive line is as sturdy as a Ritz cracker, while the defensive line is no stouter. If Nate Clements doesn't sign his franchise tag offer, and is not part of the team in the coming season, the Bills will be in a lot of trouble.

What Makes Sense

It would make sense that after losing prime-time defensive tackles Pat Williams and Sam Adams in consecutive seasons, that the Bills replace that weight with DT Haloti Ngata. The team is only lukewarm on that idea and would prefer a smaller tackle that can penetrate. If they believe that Brodrick Bunkley better suits their needs, then he makes sense at the eighth spot.

What Else Makes Sense

Spending a high pick on a tackle will rouse some sour memories of Mike Williams, who is now with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but regardless, the position is a pressing need and Winston Justice will be available. One problem that may arise is that Justice played right tackle in college and would ideally play the left side at the pro level. Switching sides hasn't been the ideal strategy for some players, such as Raiders T Robert Gallery.

Detroit Lions

As pessimistic as most people are about the Detroit Lions, they have potential and are an example of a team that has quality players, but has underachieved. After five consecutive offensive first-round selections, expect the defense to get a first-round boost. Free safety is the most glaring need, with cornerback depth and the need for an outside linebacker also noted as imperative concerns.

What Makes Sense

The pick that makes the most sense here is Michael Huff and there is a decent chance that he will fall to them. Huff would be a vast upgrade over Terrence Holt and as skeptical as some are about the production of Fernando Bryant and Dre Bly, the Lions would boast a pretty good secondary — on paper.

What Else Makes Sense

It looks like the Lions will lose DT Dan Wilkinson to retirement and if that is the case, that will be about 335 lbs of bulk that they will have to replace. DT Haloti Ngata will likely still be available and by putting him alongside the league's best defensive tackle, Shaun Rogers, opponents would have a tough time clearing running lanes up the middle. Ngata's ability to pressure the quarterback is also underrated.

Arizona Cardinals

The signing Edgerrin James has defused any talks of LenDale White — or any other running back — being the apple of the Cardinals' eye in the first-round. That being said, even though the redbirds have the mixings of a potent offense, they still have the defensive deficiencies of a 5-11 team and they need to address them.

What Makes Sense

The Cardinals are hoping to get more out of RT Oliver Ross in his second season (he battled the injury bug in his first year with the team), but drafting T Winston Justice would solidify the offensive line. The Cardinals have a ton of skill on the exterior of their offense, but Kurt Warner will not be able to dish out the ball if he is not properly protected. Drafting Justice would likely indicate that the Cardinals are planning to be competitive right now and are not planning a rebuilding process.

What Else Makes Sense

The flip-side is that with QBs Jay Cutler and Vince Young on the board, the Cards may pass up on a player who can help them right away and focus on their future. A player like Jay Cutler, who has all the intangibles, but is still raw when it comes to mechanics, would stand to learn quite a lot from former MVP Kurt Warner.

6. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)
7. Michael Huff (Oakland Raiders)
8. Brodrick Bunkley (Buffalo Bills)
9. Haloti Ngata (Detroit Lions)
10. Winston Justice (Arizona Cardinals)

Sense and the NFL draft mix like Mondays and me.

"The lonely one offers his hand too quickly to whomever he encounters." — Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche

Comments and Conversation

April 24, 2006

mack:

do you really think that mario will fall so far? I just read that houston is talking to him and bush now. So mario still might go first

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5528476

So mario still might go first. The saints should trade down if they are seriously going to draft aj hawk

April 24, 2006

Rob:

Are you serious? Do you know anything about football? how is Mario gonna fall that far? Mario is either the 1st or Second pick. Hawk is good but he is not top 5 good. the fact that you had mario so low shows you have no clue what you are talking about, which makes reading past there useless

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