With the NFL season fast approaching, now is the time to load up your offshore accounts, put your bookie back on speed dial, and plan that mid-September trip to Vegas. Nobody is more dialed in at the moment than me, who has spent the last few months gearing up for this coming football season. Today, I begin with a little game of over/under, starting with the AFC.
Normally, I back up my gambling advice with my own money, but I won't be playing a single one of these suggestions. The NFL is way too volatile to warrant tying up significant cash for a couple of months at even money odds. Still, I have given each of these numbers due thought, and I'm bold enough to predict that playing all of them equally will have positive expected value at seasons end. (Note: the amount of juice is a huge consideration in making these plays, but for the sake of making this article readable for non-gamblers, I have disregarded it and instead adjusted the lines accordingly.)
Two things to keep in mind here. First off, preseason games haven't even begun yet. Inevitably, injuries are going to occur that will shake things up a bit. Secondly, just because I pick a team to go over their given win total doesn't mean that I expect them to win a lot more games than the listed total, and vice versa for the unders. Most of these will land very close to the number. If anything, I am steering you guys clear of the sucker sides. Good luck if you play any of these.
Baltimore Over/Under: 8 Wins
I pegged the Ravens as a potential sleeper in my column a few months ago. I think the defense is poised for a bounce-back year, assuming Ray Lewis still has ample fuel in that seemingly bottomless gas tank of his. Whether it's Kyle Boller or Steve McNair taking the snaps, the offense should improve a bit from last year. Jamal Lewis should have shed the prison fat by now, but even if he hasn't, Mike Anderson should be adequate carrying the ball. I'm expecting the Steelers and Bengals to regress a bit this year, and the Ravens should benefit.
The play — Over
Buffalo Over/Under: 6 Wins
I have to look at this one from purely a contrarian standpoint. There is no way I can rationalize Buffalo winning more than six games. Dick Jauron's the coach, Kelly Holcomb is likely the QB, and oh that draft, that amazing draft. Everyone is already slotting this group into the top five of next year's draft. It can't be that easy.
The play — Over
Cincinnati Over/Under: 9 Wins
Carson Palmer's remarkable return from major knee surgery almost seems too good to be true. I really hope they aren't rushing him back for his sake and the sake of this hard luck franchise. The depth behind Palmer is downright scary. Anthony Wright, anyone? I like the team, but I can't recommend the over given Palmer's uncertain health status.
The play — Under
Cleveland Over/Under: 6.5 Wins
I've gone back and forth on this total a few times. It really seems like this team is on the right track. They seem to have a good mix of young talent and solid veteran leadership. They also have the benefit of a last place schedule, and they should be in virtually every game they play. Besides, who else besides me thinks Charlie Frye can win seven games as a starter in the NFL? Come on.
The play — Over
Denver Over/Under: 10 Wins
I don't like what Denver did this offseason at all. The old adage that any RB can gain 1,000 yards in Denver's offense will really be put to the test this season as Ron Dayne will be the feature back whenever Tatum Bell suffers his annual nagging injury. They didn't lose that many key guys, but standing pat in this league after a strong season can be a recipe for disaster. I thought it was cocky to take Jay Cutler in the draft when they could have added quality elsewhere. They aren't as deep as they apparently think they are. I think their schedule is going to eat them up. 7-9, 8-8 would not shock me at all.
The play — Under
Houston Over/Under 5.5 wins
The last two years, I thought this team was going to make the jump from door mat to fringe playoff contender. And the last two years, this team has made me look stupid. Needless to say, I'm very frightened to endorse this bunch again. Past seasons aside, Houston had a pretty large personnel turnover this offseason, as well as a coaching change. These factors, along with a surprisingly hard schedule for a last-place team, will make it difficult for them to enter the playoff race this season, but I still expect them improve a good amount.
The play — Over
Indianapolis Over/Under: 11.5 Wins
Normally with a public, name team like the Colts, I'd automatically recommend the under and move on. It's tougher in this case, though. I certainly don't think this team is a lock for home-field advantage in the AFC, and they have likely regressed a bit from last year. Still, they will probably be favored in every game they play, with the potential exceptions being back-to-back trips to Denver and New England. It is a tough call, but I refuse to endorse a team whose whole value rests on the health of one player. The thought of Indy without Peyton Manning scares me too much.
The play — Under
Jacksonville Over/Under: 9 Wins
They don't get a ton of respect because they are as far from flashy as any team that wears teal and plays in Florida could possibly be, but year after year, they perform well. I don't expect this year's version to be any different. The defense is solid per usual, and they took a couple of fliers at the offensive line position that could end up paying large dividends. I also liked their selection of Maurice Drew a good amount. He's a nice hedge for the oft-injured Fred Taylor. If Indy falters, Jacksonville should be ready to pounce.
The play — Over
Kansas City Over/Under: 9.5 Wins
Herm Edwards + Really bad defense + Really good division = No thank you.
The play — Under
Miami Over/Under: 9 Wins
The Fish were a very trendy pick right after they traded for Daunte Culpepper, and have cooled only slightly since. I was pretty high on them before the Culpepper deal, but I'm no fan of his and thus am now completely turned off of this squad. At this point, I think Miami is being given too much credit, and I don't really think there is much to differentiate them from Buffalo at the moment. I do like their schedule — the AFC East could give the NFC North a run for its worst division in football crown this season.
The play — Under
New England Over/Under: 10.5 Wins
I'm really torn on this one. New England is always going to be over valued for what they have already accomplished so far this decade so long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are still in the mix. On the other hand, somebody has to win the AFC East, and I've already said that I don't think it's going to be Miami. I think this one ends up within one game of the number on either side. As a contrarian, I've got to go against the name team.
The play — Under
New York Over/Under: 6 Wins
It'd be easy to simply suggest the under and move on here. On paper, the Jets look as bad as any team in the league. New and unproven head coach, uncertain/flat ugly QB situation, and an aging star running back. The list goes on. Looking at their schedule, it appears likely they will only be favored three, maybe four times. This feels like a really obvious under, so naturally I lean over, but you are a braver person than me if you play it.
The play — Over
Oakland Over/Under: 6 Wins
Perennial underachievers with Aaron Brooks at quarterback, Randy Moss as the star, and Art Shell steering the ship. I couldn't write a script this combustible if I tried — yet I am intrigued. The defense has added some speed, but it is still a work in progress. The offense will go with the health of Randy Moss and the mental state of Aaron Brooks. I wouldn't be shocked if Oakland exceeds expectations, but it would take the perfect storm for this to happen. Way too many contingencies for my money in a division as tough as the AFC West.
The play — Under
Pittsburgh Over/Under: 10.5 Wins
I refuse to make a case for playing the over on the defending Super Bowl champs. Especially when they appear to have regressed and play in a division with two teams on the come. I won't do it, and neither should you.
The play — Under
San Diego Over/Under: 9 Wins
My pick to win the AFC West. They came up short last season in large part because their schedule was brutal. They didn't have the type of offseason that normally draws me towards teams, but their talent is young which makes me less concerned about their lack of action. The loss of Drew Brees doesn't concern me. I was never really impressed with him, and while I don't love Philip Rivers he should be able to give the Chargers what Brees did. I think they win the division and I also think they will need more than nine wins to do it. So...
The play — Over
Tennessee Over/Under: 5.5 Wins
The Titans are a mess. They completely botched the Steve McNair situation. Now they have to decide whether they are going to feign competing this year with Billy Volek at quarterback, or concede that they have no shot right now by letting Vince Young get some reps. My guess is that Volek starts the season, struggles, and Vince Young is the starter following the Week 7 bye. He is far from ready to play this level, but what choice do they have. Not enough talent on this team to play the over given all the unknowns.
The play — Under
That's it for the AFC. Keep in mind that, I bet in a contrarian manner, which means I almost always go against conventional wisdom when making my plays. There is no such thing as easy money in sports wagering, and my picks are no exception. Of these plays, I consider the Jacksonville over and the Pittsburgh under to be the strongest. If you are determined to follow these plays, I'd go with those. I'll be back in two weeks with my NFC version of over/under.
You can view all of Ryan Hojnacki's views on sports wagering at his website.
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