Continued from part one and part two.
There comes a time in every man's life when he must decide whether his philosophy entails strong front-line pitching and manufactured runs, or power-hitting and more power-hitting.
So in continuing this third installment of the "Universe Draft," keep that in mind. A man must decide whether a position player or a pitcher has more impact on games and build his team around that philosophy.
First, let me point out that I made a Nostradamic prediction by having the Cubs draft Francisco Liriano. I always said Liriano had mechanical problems and it must have caused some kind of elbow injury his last start. But nevertheless, the Cubs took on another pitcher with an injury-plagued future, just like they took on Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.
Oh, and for your Felix Hernandez doubters out there — opponents are hitting .196 against him in August, and they only hit .219 against him in July. Oh, and he's only 20.
I'll refresh your memory on the first 10 picks before we get started:
1. Yankees — Albert Pujols
2. Red Sox — Felix Hernandez
3. Cubs — Francisco Liriano
4. Devil Rays — Scott Kazmir
5. Marlins — Jonathan Papelbon
6. Athletics — Joe Mauer
7. Braves — Justin Verlander
8. Tigers — David Wright
9. Cardinals — Miguel Cabrera
10. White Sox — Johan Santana
The next five picks will be:
11. Mets
12. Indians
13. Twins
14. Blue Jays
15. Angels
All right, let's get started. Remember what we're drafting for: players they feel will give them the best chance of winning a few seven game-series in five years.
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11. Mets
The impact a good lead-off man can have on a ball club is often underestimated. Though the times of Rickey Henderson and his 130-plus stolen bases are long gone, a lead-off man gets the most at-bats throughout the season and he has the potential to cause the most havoc on the base paths.
With that said, Jose Reyes has the potential to be a Henderson-like player. He has blistering speed and will develop into an excellent contact hitter. But at the same time, lead-off men can only do so much — they can get themselves into scoring position, but someone has got to knock in those runs. Another young player the Mets could look at here is Grady Sizemore, who has the tools of a lead-off man, but also has enough power to bat lower in the lineup.
The Mets take a glance at Carlos Zambrano, but remember he's a Cubs pitcher, which means he has the potential to suffer lingering injuries. In the end, this is an easy pick. Reyes is just too good to pass up, so they go with their homegrown boy.
The pick: Jose Reyes
12. Indians
This is oddly ironic. Reyes falls to his current team, the Mets, and Sizemore falls to his current team, the Indians. They call Sizemore a "five-tool player," which means he has the ability to effect the game in every facet of the game offensively and defensively. Passing on Sizemore for a top-of-the-line pitcher might make sense if there was a guaranteed ace in the crop of pitchers left, but Zambrano, Jered Weaver, Brandon Webb, and Dontrelle Willis all have some issue that may plague them in five years.
The pick: Grady Sizemore
13. Twins
The Twinkies are always great at finding talent where talent is not exactly present. And when the Mets took Reyes, the Twins' front office probably cringed because these guys love to take advantage of the artificial turf in the Metrodome. But then they took a few Tums and got over it because they remember that their building a new stadium in 2010, and it will have real grass — and I thought they couldn't grow real grass in Minnesota...
The Twins have always been good at finding hitters at a low price. David Ortiz, Torii Hunter, and Justin Morneau all come out of that mold. They know how much pitching can do for a team because the duo of Santana and Liriano has basically carried them through the second half of his season.
The top three pitchers left on the board here are Zambrano, Dontrelle Willis, and Jered Weaver. I've always had a problem with Zambrano's mechanics and I always predicted that he would be out of baseball by the age of 30. But he's been absolutely dominant this season, and he could just be one of those guys with rubber arms.
Willis is a volatile pitcher, which means you never know what you're going to get. But he's accomplished so much by this age that he may mature into a reliable front-line starter.
And Weaver is just young and inexperienced. If he had played this entire season and performed at the level he's at right now, then I'd take him much earlier. But after a long winning streak to start his career, he's beginning to show signs of fatigue.
The Twins pick here is Willis because the more you look at him, the more you realize that he's a freak of nature. His mechanics, though ugly, are pretty good. Plus, he's only 23 — the same age as Weaver, who doesn't even have 100 innings under his belt.
The pick: Dontrelle Willis
14. Blue Jays
This pick is easy for the Jays. Jered Weaver is 7-0 with an ERA under 2.00 this year, and he's got an older brother (Jeff) to help him through the tough times he might endure in the next few years. Zambrano is too much of a risk at this point because he's thrown so many pitches already that his arm seems to be on the brink of a huge injury.
The pick: Jered Weaver
15. Angels
There are three options here: take Zambrano, or take a position player who will be in their early 30s in five years. The Angels are smart and choose the latter. Zambrano keeps slipping.
Ryan Howard, Nick Swisher, and Adam Dunn are all 25 or older, which means they will be around 30 in five years — still in their prime, but possibly in a time when they will be more susceptible to injury. Swisher isn't worth the pick here because he doesn't hit for average and he doesn't have as much power as the other two.
Dunn has all the power in the world, but he doesn't quite get the bat on the ball enough. That leaves Howard, who surprisingly has a batting average near .300 and absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact. In only his second full year, Howard doesn't have as much wear and tear as Dunn, who doesn't exactly keep in shape.
The pick: Ryan Howard
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The players left on the board all have some major issue that causes concern. Injury concerns or the concern for stunted development are the big factors in deciding where these guys go. But some players, like Weaver, are just too good to pass up despite having just 50 innings under his belt.
The next five picks will be as follows. And remember: teams are ordered in this draft by how they are doing as an organization.
16. Houston Astros — They make the postseason often, but they can never break through. The drop to 16 because they should have won a title by now with the talent they have, but they just seem to run into strange things ... like the Red Sox and fate.
17. Cincinnati Reds — The Reds have put together a good core of players, with Bronson Arroyo, Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, and Edwin Encarnacion. They've put themselves in a good position to win, but looking at their roster, they just haven't put together enough talented pitchers — even in the National League.
18. San Diego Padres — They get their due here because they do a nice job of picking up extra spare parts from other teams and developing them into solid starters for their own team. Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young are prime examples.
19. Arizona Diamondbacks —The D-Backs deserve a little lovin' for winning the title a few years back. But not too much, because they've let their roster just whittle away due to age and free agency, and now there's going to be a wait until their next generation of players really gets into the swing of things, led by stub shortstop Stephen Drew.
20. Seattle Mariners — They don't exactly spend their money wisely, but they end up finding gems from overseas and in their farm system. Ichiro and Kenji Johjima were great finds in Japan, and they found Felix Hernandez in Venezuela, as well. But otherwise, this team overspends on guys like Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, and Jarrod Washburn.
Stay tuned for the next five picks, and visit the archives for part one and part two.
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