It's hard to believe it's only been three weeks since the Super Bowl. The controversy over Bill Belichick's taping practices has covered the league like a thick fog, something out of a Stephen King book with the suit from Pennsylvania the dark monster lurking in the shadows.
It's gotten to the point Matt Walsh could produce tapes of Barack Obama in nothing but a turban snorting lines of cocaine off the Bible and it wouldn't get any more depressing.
But while the fog still looms, a funny thing has happened over the past week. The incredible over-analysis of the NFL combine, usually a subject for derision, provided a ray of sunshine, finally something normal. Free agency is just around the corner and it's beginning to feel a lot like football again.
Thank God.
So no more controversy for a while. Just rich guys getting richer, giving hope to the millions of us who just want to watch our teams play, the rest of it all be damned.
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The large number of players receiving the franchise tag has made some classify this year's free-agency crop as weak. But though Terrell Suggs, Albert Haynesworth, Jared Allen, Nnamdi Asomugha, Ken Hamlin, Marcus Trufant, and Karlos Dansby won't be cashing in on the free market, that doesn't mean there aren't high-quality players available. Among those who will hit the market and should command some attention (unrestricted unless otherwise noted):
QB: Derek Anderson (Cleveland; restricted), Todd Collins (Washington), Quinn Gray (Jacksonville), Billy Volek (San Diego), Daunte Culpepper (Oakland), J.T. O'Sullivan (Detroit),
* In other words, it's draft, trade, or bust for teams looking for new QBs.
RB/FB: Michael Turner (San Diego), Marion Barber (Dallas; restricted), Julius Jones (Dallas), Justin Fargas (Oakland), Chris Brown (Tennessee), Mewelde Moore (Minnesota), Derrick Ward (NY Giants), Musa Smith (Baltimore), Jesse Chatman (Miami), Tony Richardson (Minnesota)
WR: Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney (New England), Bernard Berrian (Chicago), Patrick Crayton (Dallas), Devery Henderson (New Orleans), D.J. Hackett (Seattle), Jerry Porter (Oakland), Justin Gage (Tennessee)
TE: Eric Johnson (New Orleans), Marcus Pollard (Seattle), Ben Troupe (Tennessee), Jermaine Wiggins (Jacksonville), Bo Scaife (Tennessee; restricted), Ben Utecht (Indianapolis; restricted)
OL: OT Flozell Adams and G Larry Allen (Dallas), OT Kyle Turley (Kansas City), G Alan Faneca (Pittsburgh), G Jake Scott (Indianapolis), C Brett Romberg (St. Louis), C Jeff Faine (New Orleans)
DL: DE Justin Smith (Cincinnati), DE N.D. Kalu (Houston), DE Antwan Odom (Tennessee), DE Mike Rucker and DT Damione Lewis (Carolina), DT Tommy Kelly (Oakland), DTs Ian Scott and Kimo Von Oelhoffen (Philadelphia)
* The Giants' pressure in the Super Bowl is going to influence a lot of teams into loading up on the d-line, even if they don't really need starters there (Justin Tuck didn't start for the Giants, and he was arguable the best player on the field). As you can see from the list of players available this offseason, there's not a lot of depth in the defensive line market. More than any other position with the exception of quarterback, these are the guys teams work the hardest (and pay the most) to keep.
LB: Lance Briggs (Chicago), Boss Bailey (Detroit), Kawika Mitchell (New York Giants), Brandon Chillar (St. Louis), Clark Haggans (Pittsburgh), Calvin Pace (Arizona), Demorrio Williams (Atlanta), Mark Simoneau (New Orleans)
DB: Asante Samuel and Randall Gay (New England), Drayton Florence (San Diego), Gibril Wilson (New York Giants)
K: Josh Brown (Seattle), Rob Bironas (Tennessee; restricted)
To add to the free agents, you have the collection of players cut from their teams for one reason or another. Carolina released DeShaun Foster (releasing DeAngelo Williams from fantasy hell in the process) and Atlanta released Alge Crumpler.
A few of the other notable cuts over the past week or so: S Terrence Holt (Arizona), TE Bubba Franks (Green Bay), TE Jeb Putzier (Houston), S Dwight Smith (Minnesota), CB Fernando Bryant (Detroit), WR Muhsin Muhammad (Chicago), QB Byron Leftwich and OT Wayne Gandy (Atlanta), WR Marty Booker (Miami), G Mike Wahle (Carolina), and LB Warrick Holdman (Denver)
And then there are rumored cuts to come: Kansas City is expected to release CB Ty Law. Seattle is rumored to be considering cutting Shaun Alexander. And St. Louis is facing tough choices with Isaac Bruce and Leonard Little.
Little will count for $9.5 million against the cap next year with a $7 million roster bonus due at the end of this week. Bruce has already been cut once under Rams coach Scott Linehan and has a cap figure over $5 million. Little is 33 and coming off a debilitating toe injury. There's no way he's cashing a $7 million check this week.
And of course there's also the possibility of trades. Moss wouldn't have been on this list last year, being still under contract to the Raiders. Then they gave him away to the Pats for a fourth round pick in the draft. Already there's news the Vikings have agreed in principle to trade wide receiver Troy Williamson to Jacksonville for what is being reported as a sixth-rounder this year.
Who else might pack? Detroit WR Roy Williams has been making noise for months about wanting out with the Lions also fielding calls about talented-but-likes-strip-clubs-too-much-DT Shaun Rogers. Javon Walker is either getting traded or cut, but he won't be with Denver next season. If Roger Goodell re-instates Pacman Jones, the Titans will undoubtedly dump him as quickly as possible.
If Buffalo decides to commit to Trent Edwards, do they trade J.P. Losman? Does Tampa Bay try to get some value for Chris Simms? Will Miami continue to prove it has no soul by trading Jason Taylor? Will the Falcons trade DeAngelo Hall's talent for some peace and quiet? What about the rumored trade of Donovan McNabb to Chicago, Minnesota, or Baltimore?
(The guess is Losman, Taylor, and McNabb stay where they are, Simms and Hall find themselves elsewhere.)
And then of course there's the draft, one of my top five favorite sporting events of the year.
The Atlanta Falcons won the rights to pick third in the draft, "beating" Oakland in a coin flip. The Raiders will pick fourth on the strength of a tiebreaker over the Chiefs. What does this mean? That Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan is going to be playing in Atlanta next year. I've only barely begun to prep for the third annual Mock NFL Mock Draft Competition, but I do know this: Ryan to the Falcons is about as sure as Barack Obama saying the word "change" in his next speech.
Coming out of this past weekend's combine, I've got the Dolphins with Virginia DE Chris Long, the Rams with Michigan OT Jake Long, the Falcons with Ryan, the Raiders with LSU DT Glen Dorsey, and the Chiefs trading out to somebody who wants to jump ahead of the Jets for Arkansas RB Darren McFadden.
Then again, I could also see it going Chris Long, Dorsey, Ryan, McFadden, with the Chiefs keeping the pick for Jake Long. Or maybe Dorsey, Chris Long, Ryan, Jake Long, and McFadden to somebody other than the Chiefs.
Either way, it seems the top five is set with those guys. I think the Chiefs will keep the pick if Jake Long is on the board or trade it if he's not. If they do trade it and McFadden is on the board, bet on it being to the Cowboys, who really want McFadden and have two first-round picks (22 and 28) thanks to the trade with Cleveland that brought the Browns Brady Quinn last year.
If McFadden somehow makes it to six, the Jets will take him in a heartbeat. So since it doesn't seem likely the Dolphins, Rams, or Falcons will take him, it all comes down to the Raiders.
Oakland doesn't need McFadden. They were the sixth-best rushing team in the league last year. Whether it was LaMont Jordan, Justin Fargas, or Dominic Rhodes, they had a 100-yard rusher in eight of their 16 games. For a team that went 4-12, that's pretty impressive. In other words, McFadden would be a luxury pick for a team that can't afford to take a luxury pick.
What the Raiders do need to do is to improve their 31st-ranked rush defense. If Dorsey or Chris Long are on the board, they have to take them. If they're not, they'd be much better served trading down for someone desperate for Jake Long or McFadden. Then again, this is Al Davis we're talking about. Logic doesn't wear skull masks and shoulder pads with metal spikes.
Two other draft notes:
1. A lot of people are predicting the Pats to go with the best available corner at the seven slot, but I don't see it. It's far more likely they go USC DT Sedrick Ellis, Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston, or just trade out. The value at corner is much better toward the end of the first round and into the second.
2. Speaking of value, most of what is going to be written between now and April will be about the same group of 20-25 guys expected to go toward the top of the first round. But as everybody should know by now, it's the guys taken in the third round and later that can really push a team over the top.
As such, five guys who aren't getting the public love but have the skill to contribute next year: Arizona CB Antoine Cason (probably better as a free safety in the NFL), West Virginia RB Steve Slaton (mark it down — he's returning a punt for a TD next year), Louisville WR Harry Douglas (great, great hands), Arizona State C Mike Pollak, and Boston College CB DeJuan Tribble.
Five more guys who could become special teams contributors right out of the gate: Notre Dame S Tom Zbikowski, LSU FB Jacob Hester, Illinois LB J Leman, Arizona LB Spencer Larsen, and Appalachian State WR Dexter Jackson.
So while people in suits and muckrakers with keyboards continue to pound away at that thing with the thing, remember this: the NFL offseason is a season all its own. And it's about to kick into high gear.
Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.
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