It's nearly impossible to write about basketball in March without somehow mentioning or relating it to the NCAA tournament, and alas, I am the latest to succumb to this trend. We're going to be focusing on the second round of the NBA playoffs, which will involve the NBA's answer to the Elite Eight. For each team, I'll explain who they will beat in the first round, and how much further they can go.
We'll start with the West. So, as the Black Eyed Peas would say, let's get it started.
San Antonio Spurs
Who'll they beat? — It's hard to imagine the Spurs relinquishing their No. 1 seed, and I envisage the Denver Nuggets grabbing the No. 8 spot over the flailing Minnesota Timberwolves and L.A. Lakers. Make no mistake, George Karl's Nuggets will not lie down for the Spurs easily, and I can see this series going to six, possibly even seven games. In the end, though, I see San Antonio coming out on top.
How much further? — Fans of the Spurs and indeed many experts across the country have them going all the way, and it's a tough argument to counter-attack. The health and play of both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will be big factors. It also depends on how tough a time the Nuggets can give them. If that series goes six or seven games, then the other teams in the West have a chance. If it only goes four or five, I see them going all the way.
Phoenix Suns
Who'll they beat? — The Memphis Grizzlies. Coach Mike Fratello has done a great job with the Grizz, but in the end the injury to star forward Pau Gasol will be his downfall. Phoenix's run-and-gun style will prove too much for Memphis, and I'd be surprised to see this match up go past five games.
How much further? — If my predictions hold true, Phoenix would be faced with the Seattle Supersonics in the second round. Toss a coin on this one. Both teams like to run the floor the majority of the time, and both teams like to shoot the three an awful lot. It'll just depend on who's hot and who's not. Steve Nash will be clearly the biggest factor for the Suns, as well as the rebounding of Shawn Marion. I think they'll squeeze past Seattle, but eventually fall in the conference finals.
Seattle Supersonics
Who'll they beat? — They'll beat the sixth seed, and I see Sacramento falling from five to six. The Kings simply don't have enough talent on the court, what with Chris Webber leaving and now Brad Miller out injured for at least a month. This one could well be a sweep, but I see the Kings grabbing one at home, and the Sonics winning it, 4-1.
How much further? — I've already explained the potential showdown with the Suns. In terms of key players, the Sonics are jump shooters, so they have the luxury where if, say Ray Allen is cold one night, Rashard Lewis or Vladimir Radmanovic can pick up the slack. The rebounding of Reggie Evans will also be key, but as previously mentioned, I see the Suns narrowly escaping with the win.
Dallas Mavericks
Who'll they beat? — The Houston Rockets. Houston are ready to leapfrog Sacramento for the fifth seed, providing a tough opening round matchup for the Mavs, who seem destined for the fourth seed. This will be a fun series to watch, as indicated by the December thriller these two teams had, with Dirk Nowitzki scoring 53 points and Tracy McGrady scoring 48. I definitely see this one going seven games, with Dallas winning the seventh game on their home court.
How much further? — If Dallas get the Spurs in the second round, it's hard to see them progressing, especially if after a grueling Houston series. If they are to pull off the upset and beat San Antonio, the Mavs need to be healthy. Center Erick Dampier and sixth man Jerry Stackhouse are both currently on the injured list, with Dampier being the more significant loss of the two. Dallas has seen their opposing points per game and field goal percentage stats rise with the absence of the big man in the middle. Even if healthy, I can't see them beating the Spurs.
Halfway home and as you can see, I've got San Antonio coming out of the West. Looking at the bashing my NCAA bracket is taking right now; I've probably jinxed them. Either way, let's head east.
Miami Heat
Who'll they beat? — Whoever is brave enough to stand in their way. Currently, the eight-seed belongs to the Philadelphia 76ers, as the Orlando Magic are seemingly hitting the self-destruct button. It doesn't really matter though, the Heat are the most impressive team in the East by far right now, and a sweep here in the first round is most definitely on the cards.
How much further? — At least the finals for my money, no question. If my bracket holds true they'll meet the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round, and while LeBron James may prove to be a pain, Miami should dispose of them easily, too. That would lead them to the conference finals, barely breaking a sweat. I'll save my finals matchup prediction against the Spurs for a later article, but these two definitely have a date in June.
Detroit Pistons
Who'll they beat? — Detroit will come away with the second seed, but it's hard to predict who they'll face. I'm going with the Chicago Bulls. If they do face Chicago, it shouldn't prove to be too difficult. The baby Bulls have no business running with the champions in the playoffs.
How much further? — This may surprise some, but I think the champs will bow out to the rising Boston Celtics. Detroit, for one reason or another, have never really gotten into full flow this season. Whether it was the November brawl, or coach Larry Brown's hip surgery, the continuity hasn't been there. I see the wear and tear eventually taking its toll against Boston.
Boston Celtics
Who'll they beat? — Boston are a near lock for the third-seed, but where the sixth-seed will land is anyone's guess. I'll play safe and say the Indiana Pacers will hold onto it, causing a repeat of last year's playoff matchup. The Pacers swept the Celtics last year, but without Jermaine O'Neal and Ron Artest, I think we'll be seeing an exact reversal of last year's 4-0 sweep. Boston, next to Miami, are the hottest team in the east thanks to the Antoine Walker trade, and they should get out of the first round, since the east, from the sixth-seed down, is becoming a joke.
How much further? — As previously mentioned, I predict they'll dethrone the champion Detroit Pistons and face the Heat in the conference finals. Unfortunately for Boston, a certain brick wall resides in Miami, and once they hit it, they won't get back up.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Who'll they beat? — The Washington Wizards in the battle between fourth- and fifth-seed. I think the Cavs will snag the fourth-seed and home court advantage from Washington. This could eventually prove to be the deciding factor. Well, that and a little-known guard by the name of LeBron James.
How much further? — They'll be meeting the Heat in the second round, and it will burn them pretty bad. LeBron drives a pretty fast corvette, but Shaquille O'Neal plays the part of a brick wall pretty well, and it has yet to crumble. Cleveland's road ends with Miami.
So there you have it, a Spurs/Heat Finals if it all holds true, but it's going to be an interesting ride to get there.
Should be fun.
March 22, 2005
Lee McPherson:
You do realize that the Pistons, for all of their inability to get “into full flow” this season, are 30-11 since sitting at 12-12 in mid-December, the league’s third-best record (percentage points behind Miami and San Antonio) during that stretch? They weathered their poor start, yet some people still talk about them as if their season is mirroring the Timberwolves’.
For the record, if anyone beats them in the playoffs, it won’t be Boston, unless the Celts somehow find a way to play some serious defense between now and then. When the money’s on the line, the Pistons’ defense is geared to stop teams like that.