Last week was certainly nice, but the profits will quickly disappear if I bungle this week's plays. No need to waste time, let's get to it.
YTD Record
1* = 2-2
2* = 3-1
3* = 3-1
As a reminder, the ranking system is as follows:
1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I would be play for a large chunk of money (very confident)
Wisconsin +14 @ Michigan, 12:00 PM, ESPN
It's amazing how frequently I'll back a team one week only to go against them the following week. The cat is certainly out of the bag with Michigan after they humiliated Notre Dame last week, as predicted in this column. It always cracks me up how quickly teams can go from overrated and terrible one day to one of the teams to beat the next in the eyes of the average sports fan.
The Badgers enter this contest 3-0, but they certainly haven't dazzled anyone in their victories over Bowling Green, WIU, and San Diego State. Their offense will need to operate more efficiently this week if they hope to play Michigan tough.
Expect to see lots of people touting Michigan to win this one big. They are probably going to be the new “it” team for the next few weeks. I certainly don't love Wisconsin, but 14 points is pretty generous considering Lloyd Carr is the coach of the favored Wolverines.
The play: Wisconsin 1*
Iowa St +24 @ Texas, 3:30 PM, ABC
It may sound funny, but this could very well be a preview of the Big 12 title game in December. The Cyclones played Iowa very tough last week at Iowa, while Texas rebounded from its defeat to Ohio State by drubbing Rice.
At first glance, this number looked a little bit too high, but it's probably about right as Iowa State hasn't shown any level of consistency in their first three games, and Texas remains very highly regarded by most. Texas definitely has more speed, talent, and depth than ISU, but I expect Iowa State to play them tough nonetheless. ISU should cover here, and I wouldn't be surprised if this one is still close in the fourth quarter.
The play: Iowa State 2*
Penn State +17 @ Ohio State, 3:30 PM, ABC
Both teams had proverbial byes this past week, defeating Youngstown State and Cincinnati, respectively. Ohio State will have revenge on its mind this week, as it was Penn State who handed them their first loss in 2005. A win here would get Penn State's Big 10 title defense off on the proper foot.
Ohio State may very well go undefeated and win the national championship this season, but they aren't going to finish 13-0 ATS. They have covered in their first three, and these things tend to even out over time.
Do I think Penn State comes into Columbus and knocks off No. 1? Not really, but I do believe Penn State has enough athletes on each side of the ball to keep things respectable. Look for a meaningless, late touchdown from Penn State for the cover.
The play: Penn State 1*
Boston College @ NC State +7, 7:00 PM, ESPN
Boston College comes into Raleigh unbeaten after a trio of down to the wire victories. Meanwhile, the hometown Wolfpack are coming off a pair of disappointing losses to mid-major programs, Southern Miss and Akron.
Anytime you back a Chuck Amato-coached team with your money, you better prepare yourself to endure an avalanche of ridiculous penalties. It can be very, very painful to watch. In fact, it is tough to imagine anyone wanting to bet on North Carolina State in this spot. Boston College looks like easy money, but I think their seemingly endless supply of luck begins to dwindle on Saturday night.
The play: NC State 3*
USC @ Arizona +21, 8:00 PM, ABC
Arizona has looked average in their two victories over mediocre schools and horrific in their loss at LSU. If you can find any reason to believe they can keep this one within three touchdowns, please let me know.
On the other side of the field, USC has played twice, dominated twice, and covered twice. Nebraska and Arkansas weren't a match for the Trojans at slightly smaller spreads, so is there any reason to believe that Arizona can compete let alone cover in this game?
Probably not, but Las Vegas wasn't built on bad numbers, so I will be giving Arizona a look here.
The play: Arizona 2*
Notre Dame @ Michigan State +4, 8:00 PM, ABC
I love games like this. Nobody who watched Notre Dame play on Saturday should in their right mind be willing to lay four points on the road with the Irish right now. Especially when you consider the fact that Notre Dame is facing a very similar Michigan State team to the one that beat them in South Bend last year.
Sadly, the majority of sports bettors don't think in rationale terms. They will justify their Notre Dame wagers this week with rationales ranging from “they'll bounce back” to “last week was a fluke” to “no way Charlie Weis loses two in a row.” It is no accident that most people lose the majority of their bankrolls by the end of the season.
The play: Michigan State 3*
Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.
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