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October 31, 2006

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Last week, Matt Bryant nailed a 62-yard game-winning field goal. This week, he made a 43-yarder in extremely strong wind. Bryant deserves serious Pro Bowl consideration.

* Dear Tom Brady and Reggie Wayne, thank you for saving my fantasy team this week.

* Dear everyone, please stop making Wally Pipp references. They're not clever, and Damon Huard is not Lou Gehrig.

* Mat McBriar is not going to break Sammy Baugh's single-season record for punting average.

* Mike Scifres leads the NFL in net punting average by more than two yards, and he has a 12:1 ratio of kicks downed inside the 20 to touchbacks. That's more impressive than McBriar's 50-yard gross average.

***

Longtime readers know how closely I follow the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and I finally have an opportunity to address this year's nominees. I have mixed feelings about the Seniors candidates, Gene Hickerson and Charlie Sanders. I've thought for years that Hickerson deserves to be in, and he has my full support — a terrific choice. Sanders, however, is a puzzling selection, and I don't think I'd vote for him.

Among the regular nominees, here are my choices for the 25 candidates to advance to the semi-finalist stage. These are personal choices, not predictions. Terrell Davis, Thurman Thomas, Herschel Walker, Michael Irvin, Art Monk, Todd Christensen, Dermontti Dawson, Russ Grimm, Joe Jacoby, Bob Kuechenberg, Bruce Matthews, Randall McDaniel, Gary Zimmerman, Chris Doleman, Randy Gradishar, Kevin Greene, Derrick Thomas, Steve Atwater, LeRoy Butler, Kenny Easley, Lester Hayes, Roger Wehrli, Don Coryell, Clark Shaughnessy, Paul Tagliabue.

There are other guys on the list whom I like and would probably support in the future, but that's my list this year. On to the power rankings, with brackets showing last week's rank.

1. Chicago Bears [1] — Pulled things back after the first half in attempt not to show up the 49ers any more than was necessary, but their 24-0 first quarter had Chicago on pace for a 96-0 victory. The Bears led 41-0 at the end of the second and third quarters, and I believe they could have won by 60 if they'd chosen to.

2. Indianapolis Colts [2] — Broke Denver's 13-game home winning streak with yet another last-minute, game-winning drive orchestrated by Peyton Manning. There can be no question at this point that Manning is the NFL's most clutch regular-season QB. The team's Achilles' heel is run defense: the Colts have allowed the most rushing yards in the league, including an atrocious 5.4 average.

3. New England Patriots [4] — Both teams came out throwing on Monday night, but Tom Brady had an exceptional game (372 yards, 4 TDs), and Brad Johnson got benched in the fourth quarter (185 yards, 3 INTs). This definitely builds the drama for Indy's visit to New England in Week 9. Every year, it's the marquee game of the regular season, and as long as both teams keep winning division titles, we'll keep seeing it.

4. Denver Broncos [3] — The offense finally showed some life, and other teams won't be able to exploit Darrent Williams the way Indianapolis did with Manning and Wayne. Denver has done a good job playing mistake-free football, with only one turnover per game since Week 1, and a league-best 200 penalty yards.

5. New York Giants [6] — The wind helped, but what a job by their defense. After allowing 92 points in their first three games, the Giants have given up only 32 in the four games since, a difference of more than 22 points per game. While the bulk of the credit should go to the defense, part of the improvement is the more consistent play of Eli Manning, who has cut down on turnovers, and a major drop in the team's number of penalties.

6. San Diego Chargers [7] — Shawne Merriman had three sacks against St. Louis, and the Chargers could be in real trouble when his suspension starts. Keep an eye on running back LaDainian Tomlinson, though. He could turn out to be pretty good.

7. Baltimore Ravens [11] — Held the Saints without a rushing first down, limiting Deuce McAllister to 11 yards on five carries, and humiliating Reggie Bush. The Ravens didn't produce offensive fireworks in New Orleans, but they did limit mistakes, with only one turnover, and none by Steve McNair, who got an early confidence-boost with a QB draw for a touchdown.

8. Atlanta Falcons [15] — Two weeks ago, Michael Vick had never thrown for more than two TDs in an NFL game. Now he's done it twice, with seven touchdown passes in his last two games. Vick also continues to make plays with his feet, and figures to be near 1,000 rushing yards at the end of the season, if he stays healthy.

9. New Orleans Saints [5] — Better than they looked against Baltimore. The Saints hurt themselves with mistakes, including four Drew Brees turnovers. Sometimes good teams have bad games, and that's what happened on Sunday. Rookie WR Marques Colston, at this point in the season, is an easy choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

10. Cincinnati Bengals [8] — Last year, the defense thrived on turnovers, averaging nearly three per game and leading the league in both takeaways and net turnovers. In recent weeks, that's dried up. The Bengals have only two takeaways in their last four games, and that's why a 3-0 start has slipped to 4-3.

11. Kansas City Chiefs [18] — Dominated Seattle in a way the score doesn't show. Kansas City had 30 first downs, 500 yards of offense, and over 42 minutes of possession. Trent Green will be available soon, but the coaches should stick with Damon Huard. You don't bench the hot hand.

12. Minnesota Vikings [9] — Where does Tony Kornheiser get off trying to discredit the entire instant replay system based on an upheld challenge? That means the result — wrong though it was — is the same as if no replay system existed. The same. Kornheiser also claimed that if the Cardinals had beaten the Bears in Week 6, it would have been the biggest win in franchise history. The Cardinals have existed for over 80 years, and in that time they've won an NFL Championship Game, an upset victory over Dallas in the 1998 playoffs, and a game in which Ernie Nevers alone scored 40 points. Kornheiser thinks those take second fiddle to a non-division regular-season game when the Cardinals aren't a contender?

13. Carolina Panthers [13] — Only managed 204 yards of total offense on Sunday night, with a 16-minute gap in time of possession and three fourth-quarter turnovers. Steve Smith was reckless as a punt returner, fielding one kick at his own two-yard-line, and fumbling another he should have let bounce. Julius Peppers, who was on fire during Carolina's winning streak, has gone sackless in the last two games.

14. Philadelphia Eagles [10] — Three losses in a row, and their offensive output continues to drop. Strong wind and a stout Jacksonville defense account for some of that, but the Eagles can't just rely on Donovan McNabb to blast opposing defenses away every week. I didn't see this game, but it looks like the Jaguar offense killed Philadelphia on the line, gaining 200 rushing yards and holding Jeremiah Trotter to two tackles.

15. Seattle Seahawks [12] — Lots of problems, but the most glaring is the offensive line. Last year, it was among the best in the NFL. This season, there's no running game and only three teams are giving up more sack yardage per game. Shaun Alexander's injury is part of that, but he wasn't exactly tearing things up before he got hurt. The Seahawks really miss Steve Hutchinson.

16. Dallas Cowboys [20] — I like what John Madden had to say about Carolina's frantic last-minute drive: "In this situation it's silly to run plays. I mean, what are you going to do? Do you have a play that scores 20 points?" The Cowboys wore Carolina down, and turned a close game into a rout. Given up for dead after last week's demoralizing loss to the Giants, Dallas looks like a playoff contender again.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [19] — There's room for debate as to whether Byron Leftwich or David Garrard is the better quarterback, so with Leftwich hurting — even a little — it makes sense for Garrard to play. Jack Del Río played Garrard in Week 8, and the Jags beat Philadelphia. With a similar situation in Pittsburgh, Bill Cowher played a shaky Ben Roethlisberger, and for the second time this season, it cost him big-time.

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [16] — Call me crazy, but passing 48 times in storm-force winds seems unwise. Bruce Gradkowski completed under half his passes and averaged less than three yards per attempt, with no completions thrown more than 10 yards downfield. Tampa's wide receivers dropped the balls that made it near them, and the team's two leading receivers were running backs.

19. St. Louis Rams [17] — They ought to be lower than this, padding their record with close wins against bad teams. There are more of those coming — that's the NFC West for you — but the Rams could easily lose their next three games in a row.

20. Green Bay Packers [22] — Had 16 rushing first downs against Arizona, compared to only seven third downs all game, with both Ahman Green and Vernand Morency gaining over 100 yards on the ground. The defense, meanwhile, held Matt Leinart to an 0-for-6 start, with no completions in the first quarter. Defensive end Aaron Kampman sacked Leinart twice and is tied with Merriman for the league lead (8.5).

21. Pittsburgh Steelers [14] — Have to go 8-1 down the stretch to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. But as long we're being realistic, they're not going 8-1.

22. Washington Redskins [23] — Joe Gibbs is a legend in Washington, and rightfully so, but he's doing a disservice to his fans there by sticking with Mark Brunell at quarterback. Brunell is a shadow of his former self, unable to throw downfield or get velocity on his passes, and the team's talented receivers are being wasted. If Jason Campbell isn't ready, Todd Collins should get a chance to justify Al Saunders' faith in him.

23. New York Jets [21] — There's no middle ground for Chad Pennington. In five games this season, he's recorded a passer rating over 90. In the other two, he's been below 30, with five interceptions and no touchdowns. It's hard to win when your quarterback performs the way Pennington did against Cleveland.

24. Buffalo Bills [24] — With more and more teams going to running back by committee (RBBC), the Bills are sticking by Willis McGahee. If we define RBBC as no player with more than 2/3 of the team's handoffs to running backs, 12 of the NFL's 32 teams use RBBC this season, and several other teams — Dallas, Denver, and San Diego among them — are close. In Buffalo, McGahee has 150 carries, Anthony Thomas has 11, and no other running back has any.

25. Houston Texans [25] — Dominated the Titans statistically, but were -5 in turnovers and lost by a touchdown. I apologize to Houston fans for jinxing David Carr last week. Mario Williams got a sack for the second game in a row, and looks like he may be starting to get comfortable at the NFL level.

26. Tennessee Titans [26] — Vince Young is 2-2 as starter, but he's only averaging 116.5 passing yards per game, and that's not a viable recipe for success in the NFL. Young is completing under half his passes, has only three touchdown throws, and has a passer rating of 60.5. He's a leader, and his passing will improve with time, but good teams shouldn't be scared of Young's Titans right now.

27. Cleveland Browns [28] — Head coach Romeo Crennel defeated his former assistant, Eric Mangini. It was evident during the postgame handshake that both men are very fat. Crennel has always been big, but I swear Mangini has gained about five pounds a week since becoming head coach of the Jets.

28. Oakland Raiders [32] — They had 98 yards of total offense, five pass completions, and one third-down conversion. Four of their nine first downs came from penalties. They had a 10-minute deficit in time of possession. Andrew Walter had more sacks than completions. And they won. Truth is much, much stranger than fiction.

29. Detroit Lions [27] — Opponents have completed 70.8% of their passes against Detroit this year. Last week, I pointed a finger at offensive coordinator Mike Martz for some of the Lions' defensive woes, but the problem clearly includes Detroit's defensive philosophy and personnel.

30. Miami Dolphins [29] — I looked for something positive to say about the Dolphins, and here's what I came up with: they're not getting blown out. Miami is 1-6, but hasn't lost by more than 11 points all season.

31. San Francisco 49ers [31] — Despite its problems against the Bears, there's some reason for optimism about a young offense led by Alex Smith and Frank Gore. The same cannot be said of the defense.

32. Arizona Cardinals [30] — The best move in Week 8 was to fire your offensive coordinator — unless you're the Cardinals. The Ravens and Browns took their offenses in different directions and came away with upset wins, but Arizona's offense continues to go nowhere, and Leinart seems to have regressed since the departure of Keith Rowen.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 10:11 PM | Comments (1)

NBA Preview: West's Top Guns

The NBA just had to do it. They went ahead and forged their way into the minds and hearts of ghosts, witches, princesses, superheroes, and celebrity impersonators everywhere. The Association has done the unthinkable.

They infringed upon the sanctity which we all know as Halloween. A day that should be reserved for kids chomping as much candy as their young teeth can take served as the tip-off to a season of grown men dressed in jerseys holding the spotlight by dribbling some type of bouncy pumpkin. Oh, the shame.

Sigh. I guess there's nothing I can do but do my best to warn you of who could possibly stick around long enough to ruin your Memorial Day activities in 2007. Athletic savages. First, we head left of the Mississippi and discover who's best out west.

1) Phoenix Suns (Pacific Division Champs)

The Suns will continue to run up and down better than the best of them with Steve Nash back at the helm. The two-time reigning NBA MVP will continue to steer the league's highest-octane offense (108.3 ppg), and he'll get some help. Amare Stoudemire played more limited preseason action coming back from knee surgery, but was fairly effective. His presence in the middle will pay great dividends if he gets back into game form.

Downside — Traded Tim Thomas; Stoudemire's comfort level.

2) Dallas Mavericks (Southwest Division Champs)

The NBA runners-up are determined to finish the job they started this past summer. With Jason Terry taken care of, Dirk Nowitzki and the boys can plan their assault on a tough division. I'm a big fan of Avery Johnson as a coach, and his team might have the experience to unseat the Spurs as division champs. I also like the rookie additions of Pops Mensah-Bonsu and Maurice Ager.

Downside — Got rid of leaders/grinders Darrell Armstrong, Adrian Griffin, and Marquis Daniels.

3) Los Angeles Clippers

This was the surprise of '05-'06. No one thought the Clippers were more than a also ran with talent. But don't tell that to Sam Cassell. The guard teamed up with all-star Elton Brand to make a nice run into the playoffs. They got Tim Thomas to help with the dirty work and drafted two quality players in Guillermo Diaz and Paul Davis. They should challenge Phoenix for Pacific supremacy.

Downside — Winning's not much of a tradition.

4) Denver Nuggets (Northwest Division Champs)

George Karl has the bulk of his squad back from the '03-'04 playoff upstart. They're the same guys that disappointed expectations last season, so what's the point? Basically, I got this one wrong last year. The potential of the Nuggets served to make them probably the most underachieving team in the Association last season. Still, the team's talent (Carmelo Anthony, Andre Miller, Kenyon Martin, and so on) will overwhelm its way to another Northwest Division title.

Downside — Injuries (Marcus Camby, Nenê, etc.) and Martin's attitude

5) San Antonio Spurs

The heart, soul, and mind of a champion can say quite a lot. That's why, in recent years, the Spurs have been at the top of the list in the category of "Best Odds to Win it All." Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker are back to lead a team that were one Game 7 away from getting back to the conference finals. Their defense continues to be their identity, and with that, you'll at least make it to the second season.

Downside — Haven't waded much in the fountain of youth.

6) Utah Jazz

Something just tells me that the Jazz are ready to get back to the playoffs. Maybe it's the offensive capabilities of Matt Harpring. It's possibly the confidence in second year guard Deron Williams. Or it might just be the relaxation of Andrei Kirilenko's wife and her "one groupie a year" policy. Whatever the case, Utah has brought in some nice rookie talent (including Williams' Illinois running buddies in Dee Brown and Roger Powell). My crystal ball suggests jubilation in Salt Lake.

Downside — The always-precocious injury bug.

7) Los Angeles Lakers

Kobe Bryant will have a say in this year's playoff picture. They swiped up free agent Vladimir Radmanovich and drafted Jordan Farmar to help handle the offense. Two other issues that might sway the balance are the continued emergence of Kwame Brown and the health of Ronny Turiaf. But with Phil Jackson providing more Zen leadership, the Kobes, I mean purple and gold, should have enough to sneak into the '07 postseason.

Downside — Chemistry (or getting along with the star) and role player talent.

8) New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets

The other non-returnee to this year's field might call two cities home, but they have one distinct leader. Rookie of the Year Chris Paul hopes to bypass a sophomore slump and head right into superstardom. The Hornets shored up the middle by picking up Tyson Chandler and drafting UConn late-bloomer Hilton Armstrong. They should also have a better comfort level after being uprooted and shuttled out last November. Question is: who gets the home playoff games?

Downside — Durability of Chandler and establishing a solid post presence.

Now, I'm not saying that the other teams out west have no chance to make a run. There's more than enough time to prove me wrong. Even though Wednesday is Dia de los Muertos (or Day of the Dead) south of the border, that only means a new lease on life in the Association.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 9:20 PM | Comments (0)

How to Save the Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are pathetic. They've lost seven games in a row and the highlight of their year is a loss to Chicago. Matt Leinart hasn't been getting the job done since he finished with Paris Hilton and Edgerrin James is already talking about how he made a mistake in coming to Arizona.

Still, the Cardinals aren't the first team to lose on a level like this and they certainly won't be the last. The sad thing is that it doesn't have to be this way. They can save their season and return to the land of winners by simply implementing one of the five proven, sure-fire remedies for losing.

1. Sex Cruise

In my many years of following sports, I've never seen a losing streak so intense that a team sex cruise can't turn it around. I can't put my finger on it, there just seems to be something magical that happens when you mix drugs, sex toys, money, naked women performing live sex acts, and illegal gambling and put it on a boat in the middle of a lake. In today's ultra-sensitive climate, it may not be politically correct to suggest that any team embark on a sex cruise as a remedy to losing. That being said, political correctness isn't a luxury losers can afford.

Put aside all the negativity surrounding sex cruises for a minute and just look at the facts. Last season, the Minnesota Vikings tanked at the start of the season, stumbling to a 1-3 record out of the gate. They were a joke and no one took them seriously. Then the bye week rolled around, the team spent some quality time together, then they promptly cruised to an 8-4 record the rest of the way.

Teams can play paintball together, go on a team golf outing or fishing trip, or even try to bond by renting out a bowling alley or arcade. Yet, none of these trivial efforts will ever reach the efficiency level of a sex cruise. I know it would be easier on the Cardinals if there were travel agents that specialized in putting these kinds of trips together, but someone in that locker room is going to have to step up and be the Fred Smoot of the team if they ever want to stop affixing Ls next to every game on their schedule.

2. Rally Around an Injured Teammate

Even if you have to injure him yourself.

A completely unscientific poll of 11 people recently revealed that more than half of feel-good stories in sports revolve around a team coming together to win a game or 10 for a fallen teammate. We see this "win one for the Gipper" mentality in just about every sport these days and it's starting to get predictable. A key player is either injured on the field by trying to make an outrageous play (usually a diving catch or a crushing tackle) or off the field (usually the victim of a horrific car crash).

The team then comes together to overcome the tragedy of losing fill-in-the-blank-star and starts to win at an unprecedented rate. In fact, they start to win so much that it begins to look like fate simply removed the one piece holding the team back from victory. Regardless, the season usually ends in some dramatic victory and everyone starts crying, including fill-in-the-blank-tragically-injured-star, who has watched this season unfold from either his hospital room or wheelchair.

So it seems pretty clear that the Cardinals could escape this horrific climate of losing by being lucky enough to have a player get involved in a horrific accident. Of course, here's the tricky part and this is what separates winners from losers. Losers will just sit around waiting for this accident to happen, sleepwalking through the season devoid of any inspiration to win. Winners, however, will help force the hand of fate ever so slightly and if the Cardinals want to be champions, this is what they will do. They have to be prepared to do whatever it takes to win, even if that means hitting Matt Leinart with a car or hiring someone to rough up James.

3. Burning an Effigy of the Coach

This is another that might surprise people, but look at the track record. In the movie "The Mighty Ducks 2," Gordon Bombay and Team USA get caught up in the celebrity of the Goodwill Games and end up getting obliterated by Iceland. Not long after that, Coach Bombay rediscovered that hockey is supposed to be fun and he helped get this across to his team by burning a cardboard cutout of his likeness in a barrel. The lesson clearly resonated with the team as they went on to win the entire tournament, bringing pride to Americans everywhere who know what the Goodwill games are. The story was so powerful that it was eventually turned into a movie.

It seems clear that if the Cardinals can't book a sex cruise and don't have the heart to injure one of their own, then maybe burning an effigy of Denny Green might return them to their winning ways. Sports are supposed to be fun and always losing is not fun. If the Cardinals can somehow rediscover the joy of football through burning an effigy of their coach, history shows us that the winning will follow.

4. Slumpbusters

Mark Grace coined the term "Slumpbuster" during his playing days. Simply put, it's how he described a certain type of woman he believed helped him end slumps. When he would find himself struggling on the field, he would later seek out the "gnarliest, ugliest chick" he could find and then attempt to bed her. If he was successful, then his slump would be over the next day. This seems like a clear, efficient, and tested method to overcome slumps. The Cardinals just need to find about 60 or so of the gnarliest, ugliest chicks around and begin the mass fornication.

This is probably one of the easiest steps the Cardinals could take. With America becoming an increasingly overweight nation, there shouldn't be any shortage of gnarly and ugly chicks to choose from (they could've done all of their recruiting when they were in Green Bay Sunday). The only hurdle here might be the reservations of some of the players' wives, but they just need to realize that it's business and nothing more. It's a sacrifice and one the players surely won't enjoy, but one forgettable night could turn the Cardinals into the Colts. Besides, who wants to be married to a loser?

The scary thing to think about is what could happen if Arizona was able to combine steps one and four by inviting the slumpbusters on the sex cruise — they would probably win the Super Bowl.

Note to readers: please don't try this at home as it's one of the few steps that works only for professional athletes. I have a friend who I suspect has been subconsciously using this method to turn around his life and, well, let's just say he didn't break five slumps last month.

5. Fabricate an Attack on the Team

If there's not one person in the organization man enough to injure one of the players, then this could be a viable alternative. Players might squabble with each other, but when someone from the outside attacks a player, they will be met by the wrath of the entire team.

In years past, it was enough to use incidents of "disrespect" from newspapers to bring a team together and get them to play on another level. These days, you need something more extreme. For instance, last season Philadelphia had to deal with the widespread frustration with the play of Donovan McNabb. Then the president of the local NAACP, J. Whyatt Mondesire, came out with his ridiculous little tirade attacking McNabb. Suddenly, the Philly locker room remembered just how good he was and quickly came to his support.

The Cardinals need their own J. Whyatt Mondesire to come up with something so outrageously ignorant, so inflammatory that it unites the entire team and get them to play like they actually care. They need someone to shake things up and make people angry, but like the potential injury, they can't always wait for someone else to get the job done. Someone is going to have to create an anonymous MySpace page accusing the Cardinals of sympathizing with al-Qaeda and claiming that Arizona isn't capable of beating any NFL team and would even struggle against a team like the Cincinnati Sizzle (a professional football team ... for women).

If someone can pull off the attack without being out-ed by the team, this could work wonders for the Cardinals. After all, America broke out of the greatest slump in history, The Great Depression, by responding to attacks with WWII.

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 8:42 PM | Comments (1)

October 30, 2006

Where Do Heisman Hopefuls Stand?

It's not necessary to begin an argument for the Heisman until around this time of year. There are way too many players with far too many games to play to begin the debate early in the season. I feel right now is the correct time, however. If you start with Week 1, it becomes just like the rankings.

For example, I never thought Notre Dame or Texas were a top-three team in the preseason and now, I think their ranking is a bit higher than what it may actually be. So if someone had Brady Quinn considered the top choice for a Heisman winner in the preseason, he might be still considered a top-three selection since he's only had two bad games, but I'd say he's lucky to be in the top five of my consideration. Let's get to the rankings...

1. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State
1,898 yards, 23 TD, 2 INT
Momentum: STEADY

The stats are great and I'm impressed with his consistency. Yes, he did have a bad game against Penn State, but that's the only game he has thrown an INT. In every other game this season, he has thrown/scored at least 2 TDs. This is Troy Smith's award to win and the only game left that will challenge Smith is the season finale on November 18th at home against Michigan. He's on the best team in the nation and he's their leader, if they beat Michigan and are presumably undefeated after that, you can put the farm on Smith winning the Heisman.

2. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
2,233 yards, 23 TD, 4 INT
Momentum: RISING

Brady Quinn has to get some credit after his stellar comeback win against UCLA. He also had a very good game against Navy with 4 total TDs. Quinn has performed well with all the pressure and glamour that comes with being the quarterback for Notre Dame. I do think that if the Fighting Irish can win out, Quinn will finish second in the Heisman race. The key, though, is not losing again — otherwise, he can kiss the trophy goodbye.

3. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
1,059 yards, 7.0 avg, 9 TD
Momentum: STEADY

Slaton rounds out my top three and he'd probably be No. 2 if the Mountaineers would just let him play more. Anyone who saw his performance against Syracuse knows what I'm referring to when I say they need to let this guy pad his stats. If Slaton had better competition, I'd give him the nod over Ian Johnson, but he hasn't played anyone. If Maryland has been your toughest opponent after Week 8, you have a pretty easy schedule.

4. Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii
2,934 yards, 35 TD, 5 INT
Momentum: RISING

Look, I don't care if you play for Bethune-Cookman, but if you put up stats like this, you have to get some credit. He has five games with 5 touchdown passes and at least 4 TDs in his last six games. Yes, I am aware that Hawaii plays in a pass-happy offense, but I don't think more than a handful of QBs will throw 33 TDs all season and this guy has 33 after eight games. If the Heisman wasn't so biased, Hawaii QBs would finish in the top five every year with the kinds of numbers they're putting up.

5. James Davis, RB, Clemson
991 yards, 6.6 avg, 17 TD
Momentum: STEADY

Although he didn't do a whole lot against Virginia Tech this past week, James Davis needs to get more credit. He has nearly 1,000 yards, although he is now essentially splitting time with C.J. Spiller. He's also ranked in the top five in TDs in the nation and all while playing the ACC. Even though the ACC isn't the same conference it used to be, the defenses are still stout around the league and this makes his stats all the more impressive.

6. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
1,124 yards, 5.6 avg, 12 TD
Momentum: RISING

Rice is very quietly putting together a great year. With this kind of play, he has a chance of finishing in the top five for the Heisman. This is absolutely unexpected for a player from Rutgers in previous years, but Rice is the unquestioned offensive leader for this team. If he can outplay Slaton and Rutgers can beat West Virginia, I think I might have to move Rice all the way up Slaton's current No. 3 spot on this list.

7. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
40 catches, 629 yards, 9 TD
Momentum: FALLING

When you put up a goose egg against Clemson in Week 8, you're not going to win the Heisman. When you are a wide receiver who doesn't also return kicks, you're definitely not going to win the Heisman. But when you're as talented as Johnson, you make the top seven. The kid is a no-brainer star for the NFL and easily a top-five draft pick, but he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell for competing for the Heisman. But like I said, when you're as good as he is, you've got to put him on the board.

"On the Brink" Notable Players
(Not in any particular order)

QB Tyler Palko, Pittsburgh
QB Chad Henne, Michigan
QB Colt McCoy, Texas
RB Marshawn Lynch, California
RB Ian Johnson, Boise State
RB P.J. Hill, Jr., Wisconsin
WR Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio St.
WR Chris Williams, New Mexico State
WR Jarett Dillard, Rice

Posted by Matt De Lima at 10:13 PM | Comments (0)

Leyland's Tirade Ignited Tigers' Journey

The season began with a giddy five-game road winning streak, led by previously unheard of and since-vanished Chris Shelton. It began by outscoring teams 39-12 with every single starting pitcher in Detroit's five-man rotation picking up one of the five wins.

But that's not really when it began.

The too-good-to-be-true five-game burst out of the gates soon came crashing back to earth with prompt four-game slide, three of the losses coming at the hands of the defending world champion Chicago White Sox. Order in the AL Central division seemed to be restored. The 5-0 start was nothing but a distant memory. It hadn't really begun in Detroit after all.

It began with — of all things — an atrocious 10-2 home loss to the Cleveland Indians on April 17 in front of just 19,126 fans, all of whom witnessed a striking resemblance to the 2003 version of Detroit Tigers baseball and then left Comerica Park with no reason to believe.

What they didn't witness — at least not until 11 o'clock SportsCenter — was manager Jim Leyland's post-game interview in the locker room.

"We stunk," Leyland said to begin the tirade before barking a Drew Rosenhaus-esque "next question" at the surrounding throng of reporters.

"What bothered you the most?" asked another.

Leyland: "It was lackluster. The whole ball of wax was lackluster. We had a chance to take the series, take three out of four, and we came out like we brought our luggage to the park like we had to play a game before we went on the road. That's not good enough."

Reporter: "It seems like this was your worst loss..."

Leyland: "Yeah we stunk period. We stunk and that's not good enough. This stuff has been going on here before and it's not going to happen here. We had a chance to take a series. I'm not talking about anyone in particular. I'm talking about the team, myself, the coaches, and everybody else included. It's my responsibility to have the team ready to play today, and they weren't ready to play. They were ready to get on the plane and go to Oakland. If they won it was okay and if they lost it was okay. That's not good enough."

This stuff has been going on here before and it's not going to happen here. There. That's the key phrase in all of this. That's the sign of change.

Just three short years ago, Detroit was the laughingstock of Major League Baseball. The infamous 2003 club finished with a gut-wrenching 43-119 record. Manager Alan Trammel and company were a whopping 47 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central when the season came to a merciful end. Perhaps even more humiliating is that the Tigers finished a dreadful 20 games behind the second worst team in baseball, the 63-99 Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

In 2004, the Tigers did well only to reach mediocrity, concluding the season with a 72-90 record. Then last year, they found away to take a step back, albeit by only one game, compiling an uninspiring 71-91 record.

The 10-2 loss to Cleveland on April 17 dropped the Tigers to 7-6 after 13 games of the season. In all other recent years, that would have been a more than an acceptable start. Even to this season's Tiger fans, 7-6 was overly satisfying. Mediocrity was not only an option, but it was an option that was openly embraced.

Not so for manager Jim Leyland. This would not stand. Not anymore. Nor was the losing culture of past acceptable in the hearts and minds of the players, on whom Leyland's attitude was wearing off.

Veteran closer Todd Jones got the message. "He didn't almost bust a gasket for his own pleasure," Jones said of Leyland. "He said it for a purpose. Guys have to realize the manager ... is not to be taken lightly. We're going to be a better team if he can make people understand it."

Chris Shelton understood it. "I don't care about personal success," Shelton said after hitting his major-league leading ninth home run in the loss. "It's all about winning."

"Right there, we knew what people meant when they said he had a lot of fire," added Justin Verlander. Right there the whole motley crew knew that they were part of a different culture. A winning culture.

Compare all of this with the attitude of the 2005 Tigers following that team's sixth loss of the season. That came in the form of 10-4 drubbing in the Metrodome, dropping the Tigers to 3-6.

"They humbled us," first baseman Dmitri Young said of the Twins. "They beat us the way they've been beating us. It's not a 16-game season. This isn't football. We definitely have time to redeem ourselves."

No sense of urgency. No fire. No nothing.

But hey, at least manager Alan Trammel was "extremely disappointed" after the loss. Great. That's good to know. If you're "extremely disappointed," why don't you do something about it so that you're not "extremely disappointed" after every other game?

Jim Leyland wasn't disappointed when his team didn't come to play against the Indians and paid a 10-2 price for it. No, he was bleepin' furious. Even before going off to the media, Leyland embarked on a profanity-laced tirade to his team behind closed doors. God only knows the exact nature of what was said, but whatever it was lit a fire under the 2006 Detroit Tigers.

They lost the next day in Oakland, but then sprinted to five consecutive road victories. After taking one of three games in Anaheim, the Tigers then ran off six in-a-row, including a three-game sweep of the division-rival Minnesota Twins. Shortly thereafter, between May 10 and May 27, Detroit won 15 of 16 games. There they were, just over a month after Jim Leyland culture-shocked his Tigers, with the best record in Major League Baseball.

Look no further than manager Leyland to bestow praise.

Sure, the additions of rookie flamethrowers Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya didn't hurt. Nor did the offseason acquisitions of veterans Kenny Rogers, Todd Jones, Placido Polanco, and the midseason trade with Pittsburgh for Sean Casey.

But imported talent does not always materialize if it's strewn together carelessly. Without direction. Without purpose.

If they won, it was okay and if they lost, it was okay. That was the mindset of Tiger teams of old, and by old, I mean up to 2005. I don't care what kind of talent those teams did or did not have. They were the Detroit Tigers and therefore losing was both accepted and expected. These 2006 Tigers, 13 games into the season, were teetering dangerously on the precipice of a similar apathy. But...

That's not good enough. Not for Jim Leyland. Mediocrity was not good enough and it wasn't tolerated. This was the same Jim Leyland who guided the 1997 Florida Marlins to a World Series title and had the 1992 Pittsburgh Pirates one out away from reaching the Fall Classic before Francisco Cabrera and Sid Bream ripped their hearts out. Once you've had those experiences, there's no going back. Being anything less than the best is no longer an option.

Without Leyland, that would have been an option for a mostly-inexperienced Tiger troupe.

Troy Percival won a championship with the Angels in 2002, but he wasn't able to throw even one pitch this entire season. Kenny Rogers won in 1996 as a Yankee and also served up a walk-off walk to Andruw Jones to lose to the Braves in the 1999 NLCS. Pudge Rodriguez led the next bunch of Marlins to a title in 2003.

The rest of the crew, many of them rookies, barely even knew what winning was or how a winning attitude manifests itself in clubhouse.

Leyland showed them. He showed them all the way to the World Series, where even though they fell one step short of the ultimate goal, the destination reaffirmed everything the manager had to say back on April 17.

Despite the loss, nobody can take away from the Tigers what they accomplished in '06. Nobody can take away the winning culture that was finally infused in the Detroit clubhouse. Nobody can say the Detroit Tigers franchise no longer has it.

Posted by Ricky Dimon at 9:57 PM | Comments (0)

English Soccer Fans: All Hooligans?

If you believe the stereotype, England soccer fans are drunken hellions with a rabid thirst for violence. As the FA face charges after alleged incidents in Croatia earlier this month, one passionate fan from Brighton has been compelled to give a first hand account of events that day.

As she strolled through Zagreb, Lisa Kerridge remembers the atmosphere between the two sets of fans being upbeat and jovial, with each exchanging songs and mingling without incident. The ugly scenes that followed, she says, were sparked by inexplicably poor organization on the part of local Police.

"As we approached the ground, there were only one or two very small gates to go through and they were frequently being shut," she says. "Naturally, fans became more frustrated as the crowds grew. The nearer it got to kick off, the more agitated we all became."

As panic took hold, England fans were met by baton-wielding police and resultant clashes reportedly left several supporters with head injuries. According to FA spokesman Adrian Bevington, lax security at the perimeter of the stadium led to many fans without tickets passing through the turnstiles.

"Not once did I have to get my ticket out, I still have it in one piece at home," says Lisa. "It was further evidence that they were simply not equipped to deal the large number of us safely and instead put us in a truly frightening situation."

UEFA has bought charges against the Croatian FA for their alleged mismanagement of the stadium entry process, but the English FA have been charged in relation to the subsequent misconduct of their supporters. Lisa believes the charge is wholly unjustified.

"The problems were caused by the inept way we were handled," she says. "It's a sad fact that you get used to being treated like this so it becomes part and parcel of being an England fan abroad."

Lisa advocates a more relaxed and non-confrontational approach to policing, one that has proved the most successful during her time following England.

"We have a reputation and obviously policing is different wherever you go. The police in Slovakia treated us very badly, but Dutch police have a totally different attitude of calm and friendliness which seems to work."

Of England's hooligan element, Lisa says reports are grossly exaggerated. Those who do engage, she believes, are motivated by over-zealous national pride, partly due to a generational inheritance of this country's war mentality.

"There are still pockets of England fans where the hooligan element remains. It is very difficult to explain, but I think us English have a mentality that we cannot be defeated and therefore we feel very superior especially when we are all together, singing and shouting for the same cause."

Despite their reputation for testosterone-fueled antics, Lisa has found England fans ready to embrace her at every turn.

"I'm treated with respect because I understand football," she says. "I think as long as you like and understand the game as a female fan, then you'll be taken seriously. I always feel safe at games, because I know I'll be looked after."

Lisa Kerridge has followed England all over the world. Juggling her career as an employment consultant in central Brighton with exhausting midweek trips to faraway football venues might not be everybody's idea of fun, but Lisa can't imagine life without England.

"Some people don't understand it, "she says, "but my husband and I had our honeymoon at the World Cup. We both love following England and it was the dream trip. There's a camaraderie that you can't beat. As long as I'm able to, I'll be a traveling England fan. Perhaps one day, the team will actually win something!"

Posted by Will Tidey at 9:02 PM | Comments (0)

October 28, 2006

Wave of Controversy

Together as sports fans, I think we can all agree on some points of revulsion.

We all hate the Pro Bowl. We all hate female play-by-play broadcasters who sound like stuffy-nosed 13-year-old boys. We all hate long lines at the pisser, and even longer lines at the beer stand after visiting the pisser. And we all hate the Yankees. (Yes, even Yankees fans hate the Yankees now, so long as A-Rod is penciled in on their next several postseason rosters. They'll go back to loving the Yankees when he's Lou Piniella's problem.)

But this across-the-board hatred of the Wave?

I don't get it.

An article on AirchairGM.com called it "one of the dumbest incarnations of fan interaction," adding that "if security finds someone attempting to start a wave, they should immediately tazer (sic.) said individual and bring him to the clink." The great Deadspin.com ran a headline stating "Lord Help Us: They're Doing The Wave at Wrigley."

When I was writing my book "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History," the Wave was nowhere near making the cut. I didn't even consider it. I mean, how the hell is some silly fan participation gimmick going to possibly compete with real affronts to fandom like Variable Pricing (No. 70), Personal Seat Licenses (No. 42), and Artificial Turf (No. 7 with an ACL-tearing bullet)?

The Wave turns 25 this year. Some believe the tradition began at the University of Washington in 1981, and then spread to Seattle Seahawks games at the Kingdome. Others give credit to a "for-hire cheerleader" named Krazy George Henderson, who claims he debuted it during an Oakland A's playoff game a few weeks earlier. The latter claim dually disturbs me: that there are, in fact, "for-hire cheerleaders" you wouldn't want at your bachelor party; and that George Henderson is not "crazy" but "krazy," which means he's so balls-out insane that customary spelling can't even contain it.

(For the record, officials at Washington acknowledged to the Associated Press that Henderson pioneered the Wave, but the Huskies popularized it, which is like one radio shock jock saying he invented naked lesbians and the other one saying, "Yeah, but I invented them kissing on the air!")

In those 25 years, the Wave had managed to enchant some fans and enrage many others. From my own investigations, and through some informal discussions with the Waveophobic, here are the primary catalysts for the phenomena I call "Wave Undertow":

CONFORMITY: Sit down, stand up, sit down, stand up. Those of us who fancy ourselves as independent thinkers outside the hive mind have a natural allergy to something so homogeneously demanding. While everyone else is acting like they're on some fun wooden roller-coaster, these people are sitting on their hands, complaining about the price of popcorn and wondering why they don't play more Joy Division at the games.

DISTRACTION: With the cost index of attending a sporting event being what it is, the Wave can be an utter annoyance. We're all there to experience the game; the Wave is a separate experience itself. Can you imagine being at the new Cate Blanchett movie, and during one of the most emotionally grueling scenes someone stands up in the corner of the theater and screams, "EVERYBODY ... 1, 2, 3, WAAAAAAAAAAAAAVE!"?

Okay, on second thought, that'd be killer funny.

IRONY: Gentlemen, picture yourself in a bar, locking eyes with a beautiful blonde. As you're drawing up battle plans to mack on her, over walks this dumber-than-a-mentally-challenged-cinder-block goofus to apply layers of lame game like spackle on this young lass. She's clearly not into it, turns, and says something to her friend, and leaves you, lame-o, and the bar in her wake.

Your only thought? "Dude, you just ruined it for the rest of us."

I think most of the anti-Wave sentiment is based on this emotion. When you're at a poorly-attended game, sitting in the upper deck, and three morons try to start the wave in a section that only has four people in it, you want someone to cluster bomb them. Yes, we get the irony; but if I'm paying $30 to see a crappy game with a crappy crowd, you don't have to point it out to me with your hipster irony.

They ruin it for the rest of us, these people who try and start the wave at inopportune times — no Waves in the third period or fourth quarter of a tight game, EVER — or simply to make a spectacle out of themselves. There's nothing wrong with the Wave itself; in an era where illuminated scoreboards and ear-splitting music are the only means by which to arouse a crowd from their collective malaise, the Wave is as organic an occurrence as you're going to find at a sporting event.

Like I said: there's nothing wrong with the Wave, just with the people who start it.

Like with the A-bomb, HOV lanes, celebrity reality shows, and political attack ads, we have to remember that as much as we might loathe the invention, it's the inventor we have to hate with every ounce of festering bile and boiling anger we can muster.

You hearing me, Krazy George?

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 10:52 PM | Comments (0)

October 27, 2006

An Open Letter to Bill Parcells

Dear Bill Parcells,

While there is little to no doubt you are reading this, there is a very big chance there are some Dallas Cowboys fans that read this website every day. And I, for one, would like to be their voice when I say:

For the love of God, Mary, and Jesus, keep Tony Romo under center for the duration of the season.

I don't say this because I'm impatient. I know NFL history. I know how bad Terry Bradshaw was in his first few years with the Steelers. Heck, after being selected first overall in the 1970 NFL Draft, he went 83-of-218. That's what? Not even 40 percent? But Chuck Noll stuck with him. He wasn't going for the immediate win, but the future stability of the franchise.

And I don't enjoy QB controversy. I live in Jacksonville and the city is divided over starter Byron Leftwich and backup David Garrard. Both are capable and both give us a chance to win, but it's never good when a starting quarterback has one more thing to worry about.

So don't say I just want a new guy in there because it makes the game more "exciting" for the fan.

I want Tony Romo in as the Cowboys starting quarterback because I honestly believe he gives Bill Parcells and the Dallas Cowboys the best chance of making a playoff appearance this season for a number of reasons:

Reason No. 1: His obvious edge in mobility

Who doesn't have an edge in this league over Drew Bledsoe? I bet even Larry Allen could do a better job of moving his feet in the pocket then Drew "The Statue" Bledsoe. In all seriousness, the Cowboys play in a division where every team has a lot of stock in stopping the other team's offense. The Eagles have amazing personnel in DE Trent Cole (who has 6 sacks) and DE Javon Kearse (who has 3.5 sacks). The Giants have a running game and short-passing game that allows their offense to stay on the field longer than half of regulation.

The Cowboys, with their offensive line woes, need a guy who can scramble outside the pocket and make throws to the sidelines. Eight-yard slants to T.O. and Terry Glenn haven't worked yet, and they won't work in an NFC East Division where the linebackers and defensive ends are so talented. Fifteen-yard outs to the sidelines and seven-yard scrambles outside the pocket are what will allow Parcells to open up his relatively conservative playbook and Tony Romo is a guy that can give them that.

Reason No. 2: His spontaneity will balance out Parcells' conservative play-calling

The game is in the middle of the third quarter and the Cowboys are up by four on a 3rd-and-8. Does anyone truly believe Parcells is going to pass? Didn't think so. And neither do NFL coordinators. Romo's inexperience may be what balances this team out of its conservative reputation. The play's going to come out of the pocket at times. There will be scrambles that won't look like total broken plays.

Even Parcells is quoted as saying, "[Romo] is a different type of player."He is. He's not a "take three steps back and throw it between the hash marks" kind of player. He's going to make plays happen with his feet, whether his feet allow Jason Whitten and Terrell Owens to get open in the middle of the field or whether it's a run for the first-down marker.

Reason No. 3: Players know these two things and they still have faith in Romo

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Patrick Crayton was quoted as saying after the Monday night loss to the Giants that, "The guys believe in him [Romo] ... his mobility, man. He's an improviser sometimes when he gets out there. You kind of expect the ball to come to you on every play." These men are professional athletes and if they can have faith in Romo, then so can all of us.

Give the kid this season. If he plays the rest of the games, I guarantee at least nine wins. Ten gets you in the playoffs in this league. The Cowboys are on the cusp. Maybe Romo's what gets them over the edge.

Posted by Ryan Day at 7:56 PM | Comments (2)

The Future is Still Bright in Queens

It all ended with Adam Wainwright freezing Carlos Beltran in front of the disbelieving Shea faithful. A dream that began with the high-profile acquisitions of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, and Paul Lo Duca was snuffed out by a rookie emergency closer in the late October chill.

Despite the perceived "failure" of a team that totally ran away with the NL East, the New York Mets were one of the success stories of 2006. They effectively achieved their first goal, the division title, by the All-Star Break with consummate ease. The Mets' ride to the top was best characterized by their 9-1 road trip to Los Angeles, Arizona, and Philadelphia in early June, by which point the team's record reached 19 games above .500, effectively opening up an insurmountable lead in the division race.

The batting lineup was by far the strongest in the NL and was only challenged by the best pitching the league had to offer. The pitching was serviceable, if not outstanding, but it didn't need to be anything more as Willie Randolph could call on the strongest bullpen in the NL.

The problem with the playoffs is injuries. It's almost impossible to cope with the loss of marquee players in October and the Mets lost two of their five starters before the playoffs had even began. No GM, even Brian Cashman, has sufficient financial clout to run with seven top-line starting pitchers on the off-chance that two go down with injuries.

The loss of Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez wasn't such an issue against the light-hitting Dodgers and it should have been the same against a St. Louis lineup that is only slightly more frightening. But the Mets bats hit a collective dry spell, especially in Game 7 when they could only manage four hits against Jeff Suppan, Randy Flores, and Adam Wainwright, in the process leaving a staggering 22 men on base.

David Wright came in for the most ferocious criticism from the New York press for his .160 effort in the NLCS, but he wasn't alone in freezing during the series. Paul Lo Duca hit a woeful .207 and Endy Chavez, lauded for his catch that robbed Scott Rolen of a homer in the sixth inning of Game 7, hit a miserable .185.

The disappointment of the NLCS aside, the Mets have reason to be happy this offseason. They are overwhelmingly the best assembled team in the NL, despite Pedro Martinez being unavailable until June 2007 at the earliest. And the likelihood is that further pieces will be added during the offseason, with Omar Minaya one of the league's more adept (and rich) GM's.

Martinez's absence may actually be a blessing in disguise for the team. He's demonstrated he can't go a full season without a trip to the DL at some point and, to be frank, the NL East is so weak the team can win it without him. Giving him until the break to recover means the Mets have a healthy (assuming he can last 12-15 starts) number one starter for October.

Tom Glavine has the option of returning to Atlanta to finish his career, but that would seem futile, unless his family circumstances demand it or he wants to return for sentimental reasons. The Braves are some way off contending, even in a weak NL, unless they make a huge splash in the free agent market, which is (financially) unlikely. Glavine and Hernandez, with the possibility of a premier free agent addition to the rotation (Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, or Daisuke Matsuzaka) and a couple of promising youngsters in Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Brian Bannister adds up to a decent rotation for the regular season.

I think Minaya will act less aggressively than many of the "Hot Stove" columnists are assuming. Hernandez is useful in October, but he's not up to the rigors of the regular season and he may well be jettisoned. If he's around come the trading deadline, by all means, pick him up, but let him ride till then. At this juncture, Matsuzaka looks destined for Japan-friendly Seattle at a prohibitive price for what he brings to the table. Zito is showing signs of wear and tear — and ditto Schmidt. At their prices, maybe Minaya passes.

That leaves Minaya with making a deal to bolster the rotation and he has two prime chips to play with — reliever Aaron Heilman (who wants to start somewhere) and outfielder Lastings Milledge, who has talent, but is not a favorite of the coaching staff. Heilman is a useful stopper from the bullpen, but the Mets have plenty of arms they can call on in the seventh and eighth. Moving him in a package for a quality starter makes sense.

Milledge doesn't offer anything the team hasn't already got. He has speed, but Jose Reyes has more. Beltran and Wright can steal bases, too. He plays the outfield well, but it's a position easily filled. He's expendable if the package makes sense.

Trading for a decent starter makes sense and I'd be surprised if Minaya doesn't deal both Heilman and Milledge. Freddy Garcia has been touted around in the New York tabloids, but if I were Minaya, I'd pass. Garcia's body language on the mound is awful. He seems to lack passion and the heart for a battle. He might prosper against weaker hitting NL opponents, but if I was Minaya, I'd rather pursue Florida's Dontrelle Willis.

Willis had an up-and-down year in 2006, never reaching the heights of 2005 (22-10, 5 SHO, 2.63 ERA, 170K), but posting a respectable 3.87 ERA, though his WHIP and BAA took a big jump upwards. Willis will be just 25 by opening day and starting his fifth season as a big league pitcher. He has dominated the NL East, is a tremendous competitor and teammate, and never gives anything less than 100%. Being a lefty and a power pitcher is hardly a disadvantage. Working with Rick Peterson will doubtless improve him further.

Willis accounts for roughly 25% of Florida's payroll and has no long-term future in Miami. The Mets have dealt with Florida before and I would bet the house on Minaya making an offer during the winter for the lefty to bolster his rotation.

That said, Minaya already has a lefty that could prove to be just as dominating as Glavine or Willis. Oliver Perez came over as a makeweight from Pittsburgh in the Xavier Nady/Roberto Hernandez deal and didn't do anything of note until pitching a gem in Game 7 of the NLCS. There is still a chance that the young Mexican (he'll be 25 on opening day) can recapture his 2004 form, when he had a stellar season in Pittsburgh (2.98 ERA, .207 BAA, 239K). Perez needs to prove himself again after two years in the doldrums and can be resigned relatively cheaply. He gives Minaya an excellent wildcard option as a starting lefty should Glavine return to Atlanta and/or Florida decline his advances for Willis.

The big question marks over the everyday positions are in the corner outfield and at second base.

Second base is easily solved. Julio Lugo is a free agent and has already tried wooing the Mets with declarations of love. Lugo is a competent fielder, has speed on the base paths, and plays every day. The only blip could be his contract demands, which exceed his actual achievements. If this can be overcome, he's a solid acquisition and an upgrade over an aging Jose Valentin.

The outfield positions are complicated by the Cliff Floyd and Shawn Green situations. Floyd wants to return and he's popular with the fans and in the clubhouse, but he can't stay healthy for any length of time. At a discounted rate, he has a shot at returning, but if he wants big money, he'll have to look elsewhere. Endy Chavez is an adequate replacement, but little more than a solid glove.

Green has a year left on the deal that came with him from Arizona. He's in serious decline, but is virtually impossible to trade. Minaya is likely stuck with him for the duration of 2007. Speedster Carlos Gomez is waiting in the wings so Minaya can live with Green for the last year of his contract.

With Pedro on the DL to start the year, here's how I see the core of the Mets roster looking for opening day, assuming Minaya keeps his stellar bullpen largely intact by resigning both Mota and Bradford.

SS – Jose Reyes
C – Paul Lo Duca
1B – Carlos Delgado
CF – Carlos Beltran
3B – David Wright
2B – Julio Lugo
RF – Shawn Green
LF – Endy Chavez

SP – Tom Glavine
SP – Dontrelle Willis
SP – John Maine
SP – Oliver Perez
SP – Brian Bannister

RP – Duaner Sanchez
RP – Pedro Feliciano
RP – Guillermo Mota
RP – Chad Bradford
CL – Billy Wagner

That lineup is enough to scare anyone in the NL and puts the Mets in prime position to make another strong run at the pennant. With the core of the roster young and in their prime (unlike over in the Bronx), the future is bright for the Mets faithful.

Posted by Mike Round at 7:25 PM | Comments (4)

October 26, 2006

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 8

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Arizona @ Green Bay

Talk about a letdown. One week after nearly handing the undefeated Bears a loss, the Cardinals had their tails handed to them on a black and silver platter as the previously winless Raiders beat them 22-9. Randy Moss finally had a Randy Moss-like game, with seven catches for 129 yards and a touchdown, while Arizona's Matt Leinart had a Kurt Warner-like day, completing only 13-of-32 passes for 203 yards and two interceptions.

"Unlike Kurt," says Leinart, applying eye black just because it looks so cool, "I don't have Jesus on my side. Unless you count Jesus, my pool boy, wing man, and general confidant. Jesus is always there for me with gentle assurance, kind words, and an occasional blitz pickup."

Brett Favre threw two touchdowns against the Dolphins to lead the Packers to a 34-24 win over the Dolphins, and Favre is now 15 behind Dan Marino's NFL record of 420 touchdown passes. Favre has put last year's nightmarish season behind him and seems to have regained the youthful exuberance that defined him years ago.

"It's fun to play football again," says Favre. "Whether I'm tossing a score to Donald Driver, criticizing the league's substance abuse policy, or having a beer with Koren Robinson after the game, I love it."

Arizona's lucky number this year is one, which is their number of wins and also Edgerrin James' average yards per rush. Favre gives Leinart a lesson on picking apart a secondary, then takes the young quarterback out for ice cream later.

Packers win, 27-20.

Atlanta @ Cincinnati

In a shootout in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons outlasted the Steelers 41-38 in overtime when 46-year-old kicker Morten Andersen hit a 32-yard field goal to win it. The Falcons improved to 4-2 in the NFC South, one game behind the Saints.

"I've been in my share of shootouts," boasts the elderly Andersen. "O.K. Corral? I was there. Bonnie and Clyde? Saw it all. 2004 The Source Music Awards? I was there. Hooked up with 'Lil Kim there, also."

The Bengals survived a visit from the Panthers, winning 17-14 when Kevin Kaesviharn intercepted a Jake Delhomme pass to Keyshawn Johnson in the end zone. With the win, the Bengals moved into a tie with the Ravens for first in the AFC North. The game will mark the return of wide receiver Chris Henry from a two-game, league-mandated drug suspension.

"I'd celebrate," says Henry, "but the only way I know how is to get wasted and fire guns in the air. Apparently, the league frowns on that type of behavior. But I've turned a new page. My next offense will be the first entry on the fourth page of my growing rap sheet."

Coach Marvin Lewis has yet to determine whether Henry will play. More than likely, if Henry can go without a felony until game time, he will play.

Carson Palmer throws two touchdown passes, one to Chad Johnson, who celebrates with a end zone zombie walk, and Rudi Johnson rushes for a score.

Bengals win, 27-21.

Baltimore @ New Orleans

Given a bye week to diagnose the situation, Baltimore coach Brian Billick thinks he's identified the problem that has resulted in two-straight losses after a 4-0 start.

"After much deliberation," says Billick, "and the use of a large number unnecessary five-syllable words, accessorized with these reading spectacles on the end of my nose, I've decided that offensive coordinator Jim Fassel has to go. Sorry, Jim, no offense. Ha. Wasn't that a clever pun? Anyway, we'll see what I can do given full control of this offense."

Like the Ravens, the Saints enjoyed a week seven bye, and no one was fired. New Orleans is undefeated at home and coach Sean Payton has the team and the city believing the Saints are for real.

"You're darn tootin' we're for real," says Payton, "and more importantly, we're not intimidated by anyone, not a team of Falcons, a murder of crows, a jive of turkeys, a congress of Ravens, or a Flock of Seagulls. As a matter of fact, I'm more intimidated by the atmospheric synth-pop sound of the Seagulls than I am by a Ravens' offense with Brian Billick at the helm. I guess I better have my field goal defense unit ready."

Drew Brees hits (Cu) Joe Horn for a score and Deuce McAllister (Crowley) rushes for one. Reggie Bush combines for 120 total yards, and his long punt return in the fourth quarter sets up John Carney's game-winning field goal.

New Orleans wins, 23-20.

Houston @ Tennessee

In the Halloween spirit, Titans coach Jeff Fisher shows up at LP Field dressed as former Houston Oilers coach Bum Phillips, a picture of elegance in a 10-gallon hat, horn-rimmed spectacles, and rattlesnake-skin cowboy boots.

"We're gonna feed the ball to Earl Campbell about 42 times,"says Fisher, spitting a wad of tobacco on the turf, "and let's hope Dan Pastorini's flak jacket protects his ribs. A couple of extra points from Tony Frisch, and we're good to go. How about you, Gary Kubiak?"

"Well, Jeff," says Kubiak, "I'll be costumed as former Texans head coach Dom Capers simply by donning this Houston ball cap and perpetually wearing a confused and bewildered look on my face. But let's give Dom some credit. He did take the Panthers to the NFC championship with Kerry Collins at quarterback, and he did more for this Texans franchise than anyone. He made sure we got the No. 1 pick in the 2006 draft. Then, at our most pressing time of need, he left us on our own to make the decision of whom to draft. I think even Dom Capers would have chosen to draft Reggie Bush."

Well, there's no Reggie Bush in Houston. Instead, there's defensive end Mario Williams, who, with the score tied 19-19 in the fourth quarter, has a bead on Tennessee quarterback Vince Young (MC).

"Don't just stand there, bust a move," yells Titans running back Travis Henry to Young, as Henry temporarily impedes the onrushing Williams.

"If you want it, baby, you've got it," replies Young, who then scampers 19 yards for a touchdown. Rob (Zombie) Bironas adds the extra point.

Titans win, 26-19.

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia

Will the real Jacksonville Jaguars please stand up, or if that's asking too much, can you just raise your hands? The Jaguars didn't make their presence known and were corralled by the Texans in Houston, 27-7. The loss left the Jags at 3-3 in the AFC South, and they have yet to win a road game this year.

"Until we learn to win on the road," says Jack Del Rio, "we're going to be easy pickings in the playoffs. Because, since we can't win on the road, we'll never finish high enough to get a playoff bye, leaving us on the road in the first round of the playoffs, where we will lose, because we're on the road."

That's assuming you make the playoffs, Jack. Right now, I give your team a C+, and I also give your grammar a C+. You're quote was redundant.

The Eagles lost their second-straight, falling 23-21 to Tampa Bay on Matt Bryant's 62-yard field goal as time expired. Donovan McNabb threw three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns by Ronde Barber.

"I take full responsibility for that loss," says McNabb. "I blew it. I also blew chunks. For sanitary reasons, instead of a towel tucked into my center Jamaal Jackson's pants, Jamaal will now carry a barf bag in case I get the yaks. I'm running the gauntlet of puking on Florida fields. If you'll recall, I hurled at Super Bowl 39 in Jacksonville. Last Sunday, I emptied my belly in Tampa. And, should we make it to the Super Bowl in Miami and I spew there, I'll have completed the tri-puke-a."

Fantastic, Donovan. But what does former Notre Dame forward and noted NBA gunner Kelly Tripucka have to do with any of this?

While both teams need a win badly, I'll take the Eagles and the McNabb yak attack to pull it out. McNabb throws two TDs, one to rookie Hank (Hound Of The) Baskett (Villes) and one to (It's The Great Pumpkin) Reggie Brown.

Philadelphia wins, 27-20.

Seattle @ Kansas City

The Chiefs are back in the AFC West hunt after a huge 30-27 division win over the Chargers. Larry Johnson exploded for 132 yards on 28 carries and two touchdowns and won his personal duel with LaDainian Tomlinson. Lawrence Tynes' 53-yard field goal with six seconds left was the game-winner, and the Chiefs pulled to within two games of the Chargers and one of the division-leading Broncos.

"I think I speak for Dick Vermeil," says Chiefs coach Herman Edwards, "when I say that the win brought me to tears. Much like a bad dream I had: I was returning an interception in the nude, and Larry Johnson caught me and pulled me to the ground. Keep in mind, I have very short hair."

Seattle's 12-game winning streak came to a screeching halt as they lost 31-13 to the visiting Vikings. Seahawk quarterback Matt Hasselbeck went down in the third quarter when Minnesota linebacker E.J. Henderson was blocked into his left knee. An MRI revealed that Hasselbeck suffered a knee sprain and will miss three to four weeks.

"Whew!" exclaims Seattle's Mike Holmgren. "I thought Matt had been Carson Palmer-ed. I guess his knee won't have to be rebuilt with parts of a cadaver. But, thanks to Palmer's injury, we now have a few corpses on the payroll, ready and willing to die for this team."

With Hasselbeck out, Seneca Wallace will get the start. With a name like 'Seneca,' one would think he would feel right at home in Arrowhead Stadium. But he didn't look too comfortable in the Metrodome last week. And, without Shaun Alexander, who's still on the mend, the burden will be on Wallace. Not good for the Seahawks. Good for the Chiefs, though.

Larry Johnson rushes 31 times for 140 yards and a touchdown as the Chiefs take an early lead and hold on.

Kansas City wins, 27-17.

San Francisco @ Chicago

Coming off a bye week, the Bears are eager to re-establish their dominance after their near debacle in the Arizona desert two Monday's ago, when their defense bailed them out of a deep hole to beat the upstart Cardinals 24-23. This week, it's another NFC West opponent, the 49ers, who have their sights set on a monumental upset.

"And we're quite encouraged to do so thanks to this anonymous care package we just received," says 49er coach Mike Nolan. "It seems to have a return address of Miami, and it asks us to return the headset of Lovie Smith along with a win over the Bears. And look, the postage is prepaid."

Are the Bears the dominant team we saw in the first six weeks of the year, or are they the team that barely beat the Cardinals?

"Hey, give the Cardinals some credit," says Smith. "They have an incredible home-field advantage. With the retractable roof and retractable field going in opposite directions, I think Rex Grossman was confused. Luckily, our defense finally realized they could score by just catching a ride on that moving sidewalk."

Let's hope the Bears win this week, and the next, against Miami. Then, they'll head to the Meadowlands to face the Giants in Week 10. That's a game we want to see. This one, not so much. The Bears force two Frank (Blood and) Gore fumbles, and Grossman throws for two scores.

Chicago wins, 20-6.

Tampa Bay @ N.Y. Giants

On a special edition of the game show Family Feud, Tiki and Ronde Barber meet at the podium, where host Richard Dawson poses the following: "Top two answers on the board. Out of a hundred people surveyed, name a Barber who has scored a touchdown this year."

Ronde quickly buzzes in and says, "Me!"

"Survey says!" yells Dawson, turning to the board.

Ding!

"'Ronde' is right. Number one answer."

After a quick kiss on the lips from Dawson, Ronde announces that "We'll play, Richard."

And they will. Ronde and the Bucs will face Tiki and the Giants. Tampa beat the Eagles 23-21 on Matt Bryant's improbable 62-yard field goal on the game's final play, giving the Bucs their second-straight win and new life in the NFC South. Ronde Barber returned two Donovan McNabb interceptions for touchdowns. That's two touchdowns more than twin brother Tiki, who, despite leading the NFL in rushing, has yet to find the end zone.

"And people wonder why I'm retiring," says Barber, matter-of-factly. "I do all the dirty work, and Brandon Jacobs gets all the glory. It's like I'm the singer in the studio, and he's Milli Vanilli. Anyway, I'm looking forward to retirement, securing a job as a football analyst, and making toothpaste commercials."

Tiki and the Giants get the best of Ronde and the Bucs. Tiki finally scores, and the Giants sack Bruce Gradkowski four times.

New York wins, 29-17.

St. Louis @ San Diego

The San Diego defense didn't play like the league's No. 1 rated unit in a 30-27 loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead last Sunday. The Chargers surrendered 355 total yards, well over their average of 241, and Larry Johnson gained 132 yards on the ground. And the latest news is no better for San Diego: All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman has been suspended four games for violating the league's steroid policy.

"That's music to my ears," says Rams receiver Torry Holt. "I make my living catching passes over the middle. With Merriman not in the lineup, there's only one big hitter to look out for: the Burger King. Although the King is a big hitter, he's not the best cover man among fast food mascots. That would be Colonel 'Prime Time' Sanders."

Sorry to break the bad news to you, Big Game, but Merriman is appealing his suspension, and will be able to play on Sunday.

"Well, I guess if I get drilled across the middle," says Holt, "then the King can present me with a breakfast croissanwich and Merriman can bring the 'juice.'"

Good one, Torry, you nerd.

There are many reasons why San Diego will win this game. The biggest being LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson rushes for two touchdowns, and Phillip Rivers (Styx) hits Antonio Gates (of Hell) for another score. The Rams keep it close behind Marc (of the Devil) Bulger and Holt.

Chargers win, 34-28.

Indianapolis @ Denver

Peyton Manning took a beating, including one frightening play that left him helmet-less and bent backwards, but didn't miss a play and threw three touchdown passes in the third quarter to lead the undefeated Colts to a 36-22 win over the Redskins.

"I got folded up like the Pocket Fisherman," says Manning, "possibly the greatest Ronco invention ever. I don't know how many times I've been near a body of water and wished I had a tri-fold rod and reel in my pocket. But that's beside the point. No one can ever say I've never bent over backwards for this team."

While Manning is busy straightening his spine and pitching yet another product or service, his counterpart in Denver, Jake Plummer, spends his free time checking the Bronco quarterback depth chart and making public service announcements about the perils of road rage.

"I've heard it all," says Plummer. "I hear the whispers, I read the letters to newspapers, I listen to phone calls to radio stations, and I see the signs at the games, all calling for me to take a seat. And that's just from my teammates. If I have to relinquish my starting position, I'll go out kicking and screaming."

"Somebody get the shackles and a gag," says Mike Shanahan.

This is the biggest game in Denver since, well, Plummer lost last year's AFC championship game to the Steelers. Do you get the feeling Indy picked up Anthony McFarland for this very game? The Broncos have to run to control the clock. Give Manning and the Colts too many possessions, and they'll eventually score. But even Plummer should be able to light up the Indy defense a few times. Heck, it might even snow in Denver. Tatum (Hell's) Bells rushes for a score, Bronco left tackle Michael Myers stalks Manning like he's Jamie Lee Curtis, and the Broncos hand the Colts their first loss.

Denver wins, 23-20.

N.Y. Jets @ Cleveland

New England's Bill Belichick will be watching this intently. No, not for fashion tips, but to see how his coaching protégés Eric Mangini and Romeo Crenel have fared in applying Belichick principles to their respective teams.

"Actually, I don't care," says Belichick. "Once the birdies leave the nest, I could care less what they do. Besides, we don't play until Monday, so my Sunday is free. I've heard a lot of buzz about a new movie that just came out, so I'm going to the theater for a ticket to See Saw 3. If See Saw 3 is good, then I guess I'll rent See Saw 1 and See Saw 2."

Uh, Coach, it's Saw 3.

While Belichick's at the theater, the Jets will be looking for win number five. A win over the Browns, and they will surpass last year's win total of four. Last week, the Jets rode the legs of rookie running back Leon Washington for 129 yards and two touchdowns. He is second in the NFL in rushing among rookies.

"Playing in New York is a lot like playing at Florida State," says Washington, "except the pay is a little better here."

Washington rushes for a score, and Chad Pennington throws a touchdown pass to Laveranues Coles.

Jets win, 21-18.

Pittsburgh @ Oakland

Has Ben Roethlisberger spent more time in the hospital or on the injury report this year? Big Ben is questionable again for Sunday's game in Oakland after suffering a concussion against the Falcons last Sunday. Roethlisberger was briefly unconscious after getting sandwiched by two Atlanta defenders.

"Merely a flesh wound," says Bill Cowher. "Like the Black Knight in Monte Python and the Holy Grail, Ben can play through the pain and I still think he gives us the best chance at winning."

Correct me if I'm wrong, Bill, but doesn't Charlie Batch have five touchdowns and no interceptions in about a game and a half of play?

"Why, yes. Yes, he does," replies Cowher. "He also has an impeccable motorcycle driving record and sports a working appendix, as well."

Oakland ended its reign as the last winless team in the league with a 22-9 win over the shell-shocked Arizona Cardinals. Randy Moss caught seven passes for 129 yards and a 32-yard touchdown pass from Andrew Walter to lead the Raiders.

"Yeah, dawg, that's called 'Raiding and abetting,'" explains Moss. "And this new craft I just picked up is called 'origami.' Look, you just take some rolling paper, fold it like so, and voila."

In the fourth quarter, with the Steelers holding a 27-6 lead, Walter throws a pass that bounces off of Steeler safety Troy Polamalu and into the hands of Moss, who unknowingly races 42 yards in the wrong direction, and then is tackled by Polamalu for a safety. The play, dubbed the "Immaculate Defection," later serves as a catalyst for Moss' trade to the Steelers in the offseason.

Pittsburgh wins, 29-6.

Dallas @ Carolina

You know the saying. "As Steve Smith goes, so go the Panthers." Or maybe you're more familiar with this one: "As Jake Delhomme throwing interceptions in the end zone down 17-14 in the fourth quarter goes, so go the Panthers." The Panthers lost their first game with Smith when Delhomme threw a pick in the end zone against the Bengals.

"Yeah, that's smarts," says Carolina head coach John Fox. "Jake needs to understand that you don't get second chances in situations like that. Now, when you're filming a commercial hawking Bojangles chicken, you can blow your line any number of times and get as many re-takes as you need."

The Cowboys are no strangers to interceptions. Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo combined for four last Monday against the Giants. And they were sacked six times. Now Bill Parcells has a decision to make.

"Oh, that decision's been made," says Parcells. "I'm done after this year. Between T.O., Bledsoe, and Romo, returning next year is a no go. Jerry Jones might as well coach this team. He's on the field more than I am."

Whomever starts at quarterback will be subject to the onslaught of the NFL's sack leader, Julius Peppers, who leads the league with eight. Jake Delhomme throws three touchdown passes, two to former Cowboy Keyshawn (of the Dead) Johnson.

Carolina wins, 26-17.

New England @ Minnesota

Lost among the accolades in the Patriots' convincing 28-6 thumping of the Bills was the Sports Illustrated article announcing safety Rodney Harrison as the "Dirtiest Player In the Game." Harrison collected 23% of the vote, easily outdistancing Pittsburgh's Joey Porter and Philadelphia's John Runyan, who both collected 6% of the vote. Harrison was surprised, yet deeply touched, by the honor.

"Frankly, I'm stunned," says the Pats' defensive leader. "Not at winning. But at the fact that professional wrestler Ric Flair did not garner a single vote. He's the dirtiest player in the game, and a jet-flyin', limousine-ridin', kiss-stealin', wheelin,' dealin' son of a gun to boot."

The Vikings shocked the home-standing Seahawks 31-14 to improve to 4-2. Chester Taylor rushed for 169 yards, including a 95-yard run for a touchdown, to help secure the win.

"Thank you," replies Taylor. "Let me take this time to make one point. Everyone associates today's Vikings with the 'sex boat' fiasco of last year. And everyone thinks the Patriots are the NFL's good guys. But don't forget, the Patriots were responsible for the league's original sexual scandal when Zeke Mowatt flashed his 'Patriot Missile' to a female locker room reporter. They started this filth. That's why we'd like to extend an invitation to Mowatt to attend our next open-lake excursion. Bring the heavy artillery, Zeke."

If the Vikings want to be taken seriously as a true contender, what better stage than Monday night at home against the Patriots and Tom Brady.

The Vikings ride that emotion, and four Ryan Longwell field goals, to a 19-16 upset of the Pats.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:31 PM | Comments (0)

The Greatest Story Never Told Again

When we talk about the greatest NFL games of all-time, one of the prerequisites for consideration always seems to be the context. It should at very least match two "good" teams, and preferably be a playoff game, if not the Super Bowl. It should be of some import.

But what if every game existed in a vacuum? That we could only judge "the greatest games" by on-field drama alone? I wonder how many fantastic games like that are lost to history because the game didn't carry any real significance. I submit to you that last week's Eagles/Bucs game would take their place in the pantheon if context didn't count.

It won't because the Bucs are heading nowhere and the Eagles are an iffy proposition in their own right. But I don't remember ever seeing a game that was such a tellable, outstanding story. To be sure, out of the thousands of games I've seen in my life, I'm calling it the greatest. The Doug Flutie hail mary game is the only one that approaches it.

The first half was tight, low-scoring, and ended in controversy. The Eagles were dominating statistically, but trailing 7-0 thanks to a Ronde Barber interception return for a touchdown. Philadelphia had a chance to put some points on the board to end the half, getting the ball to the Bucs' 8-yard line with :09 left and no timeouts. So take your shot at the end zone, and if it works out, great. If not, send in the kicker.

Except Donovan McNabb committed the cardinal sin of throwing short of the end zone, hitting L.J. Smith at the two, where he was brought down where he stood in bounds. Half over.

The Bucs upped their lead to 10-0 in the second half, and then McNabb threw another interception that Barber took back to the house. It was a statement game for Barber, letting the world know his brother isn't the only superstar in the family, and unlike Tiki, he will not be retiring at the end of the season.

That the Eagles were down 17-0 more than halfway through the third quarter could arguably been pinned entirely on McNabb. He seemed to realize this and decided at that point that he had the sheer ability to atone for his errors single-handedly. Which he did. Three touchdown passes later, and the Eagles were up 21-20.

Credit must be given to Brian Westbrook's role in the comeback. He broke four tackles on the 56-yard go-ahead touchdown reception. He ran for 101 yards at an 7.8 average clip. He had over 100 receiving yards, as well.

But this comeback really belonged to McNabb. He threw the touchdown passes, he worked himself to the vomiting point (needing to burn a timeout to compose himself after the upchuck), and made big runs that recollects a much younger McNabb. This game, to me, will always be McNabb's signature game.

When Philadelphia pulled to within 17-7 and you could feel momentum shifting, I thought to myself, "If the Eagles do come back, I hope it won't be because the Bucs gave them anything."

And the funny part is, they really didn't. Most times a team comes back from three scores down in a short amount of time (less than 20 football minutes in this case), they receive plenty of help from the other team. But not only did the Bucs not once turn the ball over in the time it took for the Eagles to go from down 17-0 to up 21-20, but they didn't even go three and out. They chewed up clock, took care of the football, and even managed a multi-first down, clock-eating scoring drive to push their lead from 17-14 to 20-14 with just about two minutes left. It's just that McNabb would not be denied. He had something to atone for.

The Eagles took the lead with 33 seconds left. Michael Pittman made a nice return out to the Bucs' 35 on the ensuing kickoff. In the next few plays to follow, the Buccaneers managed to (literally, given the Bruce Gradkowski run that got them there) stumble to the Eagles' 45 with four seconds left. I assume everyone reading this knows what happened next.

I love the way it was reckoned by a commenter named Pat on FootballOutsiders.com: "That was very likely the most ludicrous field goal ever attempted. It was absolutely the most ludicrous field goal ever made."

Consider that it was only the third field goal in NFL history longer than 60 yards. One of the other ones came in the thin air of Mile High Stadium. The other came 36 years ago from a kicker with a blunt-edged, powerful foot. Consider also that Matt Bryant's career-long field goal was 50 yards (oops, I'm providing outside-of-game context) and that he was 2-of-5 in field goals on the season (there I go again) coming into the game. McNabb's ridiculousness was trumped by Bryant's preposterousness.

That preposterousness saved the Bucs from finishing the game +4 in turnovers and losing anyway. The announcers made much of the fact that teams going +3 in turnovers in a game win it 91% of the time. They didn't say how often a team +4 wins it, but it has to be well north of 95%, I would think.

And yet, how often does one team gain over 72% of the net yards gained in a game (506-196) and lose? The Eagles did, and these are are all the numbers and stories that add up to one of the greatest games ever played, and it'll be a shame if it gets consigned to the dustbin of history.

***

Onto the college football picks (1-4 last column, 9-11 on the year): My pick listed first, home team in CAPS.

Oklahoma (+1.5) over MISSOURI

Even with Missouri's great start, and even though the Sooners have lost Adrian Peterson, I still am unconvinced that the Tigers have bridged the talent gap between themselves and Oklahoma enough to win this game. Oklahoma has two wins (albeit with Peterson) better than any of Mizzou's wins (For prognosticating purposes, I'm counting OU's screwjob against Oregon as a win. The other team is Washington.)

Buffalo (+35.5) over BOSTON COLLEGE

I may be overly seduced by the absolutely gigunderous line — it wouldn't be the first time — but Buffalo is 4-2-1 against the spread this year, and I'm not sure any team is going to put up more than six touchdowns in what should be (hopefully?) a cold prelude-to-winter late October New England day. Which means Buffalo may only need a single touchdown to ultimately cover.

GEORGIA TECH (-5) over Miami

Miami barely got by Duke last week. Whatever suspended players they get back for this one won't be nearly enough to split the difference with the Jackets.

Wake Forest (-8.5) over NORTH CAROLINA

If not for an unfortunate chain of events against Clemson, Wake would be undefeated. The Tarheels have been blown out in four straight games, last week getting shut out by mighty Virginia. Don't see how this one stays anywhere near as close as 8-9 points.

WASHINGTON (PK) over Arizona State

Both have had nice results against USC, but Washington had a much better result against Cal than the Sun Devils did, and have a better resume overall. And they're at home.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:48 PM | Comments (0)

October 25, 2006

NFL Week 8 Bye Report

Just a brutal Week 7 in the NFL. I guess that's what happens when you have an amazing seven home dogs out of 13 games. Five of the seven won outright, three of them capitalizing on catastrophic errors by what were supposed to be three of the league's best teams (Pittsburgh, San Diego, Philadelphia). Those games, combined with Seattle's meltdown (knocking me out of my survivor pool), topped by the St. Louis Cardinals losing Game 2 of the World Series, just destroyed me. It was a tough, tough day.

Keeping all that in mind, here are 10 observations on the week, a splendid bloodbath, and unofficial start to the grueling middle stage of the march to NFL immortality.

1. How again did Seneca Wallace manage to become Seattle's No. 2 QB? Was Tee Martin unavailable?

2. Speaking of great decisions in the Northwest, great job Darrell Jackson. I completely support your move to fall backward untouched when you only needed one more yard to save a drive when you were down 11 in the fourth quarter. Absolutely the right call.

3. So where does Chris Simms play next year? Oakland? Detroit? Miami? Baltimore? Bruce Gradkowski is officially taking over Tampa Bay.

4. If Jacksonville doesn't pull off the upset at Philadelphia this week, expect the David Garrard calls to get significantly louder.

5. Don't worry about Tom Brady. He's doing just fine.

6. In the battle between Marty Schottenheimer and Herman Edwards, is there any surprise the game featured a blown 14-point lead in the
fourth quarter, countered by a botched game-winning drive, countered by a game-winning FG being disallowed on a penalty?

7. Speaking of disallowed FGs, Troy Polamalu's running into the kicker penalty not only disallowed the missed FG (which was then missed again, except by a different kicker), but forced Pittsburgh to use its last timeout, which in turn forced the hurried spike play in FG range with time running out in regulation, which resulted in a 10-second run-off when WR Nate Washington jumped, which resulted in overtime, which Pittsburgh lost.

8. Headline from Monday: "Browns' Baxter tears patellar tendons in both knees." Damn. I mean, damn!

9. Good luck and happy trails to LaVar Arrington (out for season), Matt Lepsis (out for season), Mike Doss (out for season), Robert Ferguson (out for season), Shawne Merriman (suspended four games for accidentally testing positive for steroids), and Maurice Carthon (resigned after accidentally becoming an NFL offensive coordinator).

10. (TIE) How about that coaching job by Dennis Green? The way he stuck up for his staff and turned that offense around was truly inspiring. Any way we can get him to run for Senate?

10. (TIE) Told you John Abraham was getting hurt again.

Only eight teams have yet to enjoy their bye week, with Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, and Washington taking their turns in Week 8. With a combined record of 6-22, a bye for these teams is like a coffee break on the Bataan Death March. There's just not a whole lot that's going to help at this point.

Buffalo

(2-5, 1-3 AFC East, third place)

Overview — Buffalo wide receiver Lee Evans summed it best after the Bills' 28-6 loss to the Patriots: "We had some turnovers down in the red zone, which really hurt drives." Absolute genius. Third in the league in penalties, -7 turnover ratio, 21 sacks allowed. This team is just all-around ugly.

Impact of the Bye — With the Patriots at Minnesota and Jets at Cleveland, there's a semi-decent chance the Bills will pick up a half-game in the standings this week. That would be nice.

Outlook — J.P. Losman continues to make huge mistakes that cost his team games, and the only place the Bills have to turn is Kelly Holcomb. Maybe they can get Drew Bledsoe back from the Cowboys.

Side note: I feel for Bledsoe. I went to a few training camp practices his rookie year. Bill Parcells was all over his ass the entire time. But Bledsoe took it like a man, and helped turn the Patriots into a respectable team for the first time in my life as a football fan. He handled the Tom Brady transition as well as could be expected, and there are a lot of Pats fans who will always hold him in extremely high regard. If this is the end of the road for him (and he's definitely the kind of guy who could walk way and never look back), I wish him nothing but the best. I'm glad the Pats took him instead of Rick Mirer.

Miami

(1-6, 0-3 AFC East, last place)

Overview — Joey Harrington's line from Sunday's loss to Green Bay: 33-62, 414 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT. In a game where Joey Freaking Harrington threw for more than twice the yardage as Brett Favre, the Dolphins lost by double-digits at home. They're 1-6. How's that for an overview?

Impact of the Bye — If you asked a guy being beaten to death whether he would like a five-minute break, he'd probably say yes. On a related note, Miami plays at Chicago in Week 9.

Outlook — Who knew when Nick Saban limp-wristed that challenge flag in Pittsburgh that it would ruin the whole season? Oh well, there's always the SEC.

Detroit

(1-6, 0-3 NFC North, last place)

Overview — On the plus side, Kevin Jones has really turned it around after a rough start, and is leading my fantasy football resurgence. On the down side, they wasted two top-10 draft picks and $30 million on Mike Williams and Charles Rogers, and now feature an offense that relies on Mike Furrey. I'd say that about evens out.

Side note: The two players taken after Williams in 2005 were Marcus Spears (Dallas) and Merriman (San Diego). Some of the players taken after Rogers at No. 2 in 2003: Andre Johnson (No. 3), Byron Leftwich (No. 7), Terrell Suggs (No. 10), Ty Warren (No. 13), Polamalu (No. 16), Willis McGahee (No. 23) and Larry Johnson (No. 27). I'm not saying they should have taken any of those players at No. 2 instead, but trading down and acquiring picks might have worked out better in the long run. (If you ever run into Matt Millen at a bar, maybe you can mention it to him for me. I promise to send flowers to your hospital room and/or funeral.)

Impact of the Bye — Perfect. If the World Series goes to Game 6 or 7, and the Tigers end up winning, the Lions players will all be able to go to the riots on Eight Mile. If the World Series goes to Game 6 or 7, and the Tigers lose, they can all go to the riots on Eight Mile. Couldn't be better timing.

Outlook — They need a massive infusion of talent on the offensive line, followed by a better QB, better No. 2 WR, better No. 3 WR, better TE, better depth across the defense, and a better GM. After that, they'll be golden.

Washington

(2-5, 0-2 NFC East, last place)

Overview — By far the best of the dregs at 2-5/1-6, the Redskins are nonetheless in a huge hole and may very well be in the final throes of the Joe Gibbs Traveling Revival Show. Al Saunders hasn't gotten the offense to work on a consistent basis (20th in scoring, 20th in passing yards), and the Gregg Williams defense has generated virtually no pass rush (10 sacks in 7 games), leading to the shredding of the secondary (fourth-worst 239 yards/game). Gee, and I thought they solved that problem when they gave Adam Archuletta and Andre Carter a combined $60 million in the offseason. That Dan Snyder just can't catch a break.

Impact of the Bye — See Miami.

Outlook — The best of these four teams may very well end up with the fewest wins. Their final nine games: Dal, @PHI, @TB, CAR, ATL, PHI, @NO, @STL, NYG. They would have to go 6-3 in those games just to finish 8-8. I'm afraid the playoffs are a bit out of reach for ol' Joe, and I don't see him coming back for year four.

(Here's hoping Snyder gives Jim Tressel $75 million to come coach the 2007-2009 Redskins, then Isiah Thomas in 2010-11, Tom Cruise in 2012, and Joe Theismann for three preseason games in 2013 before finally just taking over coaching duties himself. Man, I wish I was a Redskins fan!)

iMix of the Week

(Available on iTunes)

1. Express Yourself – Charles Wright & The Watts 103rd Street Rhythm Band
2. At Last – Etta James
3. Party at Ground Zero – Fishbone
4. Time – Blind Melon
5. Blues Music – G. Love & Special Sauce
6. The Ballad of Curtis Loew – Lynyrd Skynyrd
7. I Hate Children – Adolescents
8. Doin' Time (Uptown Dub) – Sublime
9. What a Wonderful World – Louis Armstrong
10. Shut ‘Em Down 2002 – Busta Rhymes

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 10:55 PM | Comments (0)

College Football Predictions: Week 9

As mediocre as my record may appear, I am one strong week away from a 60% win rate on the year. A win rate like that is just as good as a license to print money, and there are plenty of "pros" who would drool over such results. The Week 9 card isn't deep, but these looks are pretty strong. Let's get to it.

YTD Record

1* = 5-4-1
2* = 6-5-1
3* = 6-4

As a reminder, the ranking system is as follows:

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

Clemson @ Virginia Tech +4, Thursday 7:30 PM, ESPN

On paper, picking this game is a no-brainer. A top-10 team laying only four points against a squad that very recently was embarrassed by both Georgia Tech and Boston College is going to look great to most. Add to the equation the fact that Clemson just dominated the same Georgia Tech team that handled the Hokies, and who wouldn't love to bet Clemson here?

No thanks, you can count me amongst the minority that will be in the Virginia Tech corner come Thursday night. This is a great spot for a Clemson let down, and this game represents a big effort spot for the Hokies with any hope of salvaging their season dying with a loss. Throw in the fact that Clemson's star tailback, James Davis, will likely be hobbled by an injury suffered against Georgia Tech, and you have yourself a solid play.

The play: Virgnia Tech 3*

Penn State @ Purdue +3, 12 PM, ABC

Purdue really let me down last week as they didn't even come close to covering as a 3* play. Most sports gamblers would turn around after a loss like this and start betting against Purdue out of frustration and anger, but I am not most sports gamblers.

Once again I don't love Purdue, especially not Curtis Painter, but I still can't figure out what Penn State has done so far this year to justify being three point favorites on the road in a league game against a decent squad. I think it is a classic case of the name game, and as usual I have no problem backing the lesser name.

The play: Purdue 2*

Nebraska @ Oklahoma State +6, 3:30, ABC

Both of these squads come into this game off of heartbreaking losses. As close as Nebraska came to an outright win last week against Texas, that loss couldn't have been more painful than losing in overtime on a mixed extra point as Oklahoma State did. This is a volatile position for both sides. They both need to bounce back in a big way.

I'm guessing that plenty of people were impressed with how tough Nebraska played Texas, but I thought that game said more about what Texas isn't (a superpower) than what Nebraska truly is. I believe that Oklahoma State has a chance to win this game outright, but as always I feel a lot more comfortable with the six points at my side.

The play: Oklahoma State 2*

Texas @ Texas Tech +12, 6 PM, TBS

I just mentioned it, but I believe that Texas is overrated this season. They may have escaped Lincoln with a victory last weekend, but that was likely little consolation for those who took Texas against the spread. The Horns have Holiday Bowl written all over them.

I've faded Texas Tech twice thus far this year (TCU and A&M) and won. I really do not care for this version of the Red Raiders, and they were surely overvalued during the early part of the year. The games between these two in '04 and '05 were both one-sided in favor of Texas, but luckily Texas doesn't get a head start on the scoreboard because of those results. Like Nebraska, Tech may not win outright, but that won't matter much to those who back them so long as they cover.

The play: Texas Tech 1*

Tennessee @ South Carolina +5, 7:45 PM, ESPN

This game has a lot in common with the Thursday night game this week in that we have a top-10 team laying less than seven points on the road against an unranked opponent in a nighttime hostile environment. Wow, that was a mouthful.

Forget about Steve Spurrier vs. Phillip Fulmer and all the other trivial garbage ESPN is going to throw out in the open in order to hype up this game. If you are looking to cover the spread, stick with the aesthetically unpleasing home underdog. They won't win every time, but they will cover often enough to pay for your bar tabs on a regular basis. Good luck this week.

The play: South Carolina 2*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.

Posted by Ryan Hojnacki at 10:11 PM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 32

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth assumed the points lead with an 11th-place finish, with a little help from Jeff Burton's 42nd-place result. Kenseth now leads Kevin Harvick by 36 points.

"I'm not sure who spun me," says Kenseth, "but if I had to guess, I'd have to say David Ragan. I think he was playing 'tag' out there. Rookies and Martinsville mix like Mark Martin and full-fledged retirement."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Given almost no chance to win the Nextel Cup after his 24th at Talladega, Johnson stormed back into contention with a win at Martinsville, holding off Denny Hamlin for his fifth win of the year. Johnson is now only 41 out of the lead and charging.

"Here's Jimmie!" yells Johnson, doing his best Jack Nicholson impression and re-introducing himself to Cup contention by maniacally taking an axe to a random door. "All wrecks and no wins makes Jimmie very angry!"

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick was involved in several incidents that required multiple pit stops and lots of yanking on his fenders, and he was forced to switch to a backup ignition system late in the race. Despite all that, Harvick still pulled out a ninth-place finish and moved to second in the points, 36 out of first.

"When life gives you lemons," says Harvick, "you've got to make lemonade. If that doesn't work, then you've got to make do with hard lemonade, namely a couple of six packs' worth."

4. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin dueled with Jimmie Johnson down the stretch and almost completed a daring, late pass of Johnson for the lead. He settled for second, which was good enough to improve his points position two spots from sixth to fourth, and also pleased fans of the Virginia native.

"Homeboy Hamlin almost pulled it out," says Hamlin. "I can only imagine how I would have felt had I wrecked Jimmie and taken the win. Actually, I don't have to imagine. I could just ask Brian Vickers."

5. Jeff Burton — Burton finally tasted bad luck in his quest for the Cup. Tape used to hold his hood down caused his engine to overheat, then a failed valve spring stopped him cold. He completed only 217 laps, finished 42nd, and dropped from the points lead to fifth, but only 48 behind new leader Matt Kenseth.

"I know where the bad luck's coming from," says Burton. "In the first five races of the Chase, everything went hunky dory. Then, my brother Ward shows up in the sixth race, and it all falls apart. Ward has always been a jinx in my life. I would have been an only child if Ward was never born."

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt was well on his way to a top-five finish until he locked up his brakes 23 laps from the finish and spun, and ended up in 22nd. It cost him a spot in the standings, as he fell to sixth, 94 out of first.

"A simple lack of concentration on my part," says Earnhardt. "For some reason, I thought I was riding in a car with Jay-Z and chasing Danica Patrick. I don't know where I got that crazy idea in my head."

7. Kasey Kahne — Kahne followed up his win in Charlotte with a seventh in Martinsville, and gained ground on six of his fellow Chase competitors. Kahne now sits in eighth, but his deficit to the leader is under 100 points.

"I propose a change to the Chase format," says Kahne. "I say all Chase competitors should be allowed one 'mulligan' race to throw out, and only count your best nine finishes. If that won't work, then let's just crown the driver with the most wins Nextel Cup champion."

8. Mark Martin — Martin's No. 6 AAA Ford suffered a hole in its radiator, but Martin was able to remain on the lead lap. He finished 24th, which was better than only one other Chase competitor, Jeff Burton, who finished 42nd. Martin fell three places in the points to seventh.

"I guess I'm not going out like Formula 1 great Michael Schumacher," says Martin, "with seven world championships. I guess I lacked his killer instinct, which to Schumacher meant running any and everyone off the road in order to win. Who knows, if this deal with MB2 Motorsports goes well, maybe Ferrari will offer me a ride."

9. Jeff Gordon — After three-straight DNF's, Gordon's Chase fortunes finally took a turn for the better with a fifth in Martinsville. Starting second, Gordon led the first 144 laps, but a sun-warmed track disrupted the handling on the DuPont Chevy and he settled for his 13th top-five of the year.

"I've never been a big fan of the sun," says Gordon. "It's bright and sunny all the time, like Michael Waltrip."

10. Kyle Busch — Busch finished 18th in Martinsville and fell to last in the points. He is now 10th, 171 behind points leader Matt Kenseth.

"I finished dead last among Hendrick Motorsports drivers," says Busch, "and also last among Hendrick Motorsports drivers who are allowed in driver meetings."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:27 PM | Comments (0)

October 24, 2006

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* As if Denver's ailing offense needed any more problems, standout left tackle Matt Lepsis is out for the season. If teams start stacking the line to stop Tatum Bell, Mike Shanahan is going to start punting on first or second down.

* As if Green Bay's struggling team needed any more problems, starting wide receiver Robert Ferguson is out for the season. If the Packers' receiving corps gets any thinner, Brett Favre is going to start trying to catch his own passes.

* Boomer Esiason can be a serious analyst when he wants to. He's terrific on ESPN radio with Marv Albert.

* Troy Aikman got hit in the head a lot as a player, and he makes simple mistakes sometimes, but he's the best announcer on television.

* Strangest sight on MNF: a linebacker (I think it was Reggie Torbor) covering Terrell Owens.

***

The biggest story this week was the report that Giants running back Tiki Barber will retire at the end of this season. Barber leads the NFL in rushing yards and has been one of the top backs in the league for years now. He was my all-pro RB in 2004 and 2005, and he has more 100-yard rushing games (21) since 2004 than any other RB. The rushing numbers don't tell the whole story, since Barber is a good blocker and an excellent receiver. Barber is one of the NFL's good guys, a superstar who always plays hard and behaves with class on and off the field. If he does retire, the league will miss him.

Before we get to the power rankings, I want to remind readers that these rankings reflect a team's strength right now. These rankings aren't playoff predictions, nor will they be. This week, they're about a team's power heading into Week 8. In a couple months, they'll be about a team's power heading into Week 16. A team that's out of postseason contention, but playing well, could be ranked higher than a team that's clinched a spot but fallen off the mark.

Anyway, on to the power rankings. Brackets indicate previous rank.

1. Chicago Bears [1] — It's a long season, but the Bears have to like the way the NFC playoff picture is shaping up. The only team within a game of them is New Orleans. Chicago is 5-0 in the NFC and 3-0 in the NFC North. The Bears have already won at Green Bay and Minnesota, so their only remaining road game in the division is at Detroit.

2. Indianapolis Colts [2] — Brought in Booger McFarland to shore up their league-worst rush defense, but injuries are mounting. Strong safety Mike Doss is out for the season, and DT Montae Reagor is likely to miss significant time after he flipped his SUV while not wearing a seat belt. On the bright side, the Colts appear to have the AFC South pretty much wrapped up already. It sounds stupid, and it kind of is.

3. Denver Broncos [4] — Five wins in a row, but they're 31st in scoring. Against Cleveland, Jake Plummer finally got a chance to throw, with a season-high 41 attempts, and made the least of his opportunity, with a 51.8 passer rating. Plummer seems to have lost both the decision-making he showed last year and the play-making ability he's shown throughout his career.

4. New England Patriots [9] — This is probably too high, but I'm not ready to move the Saints or Giants this far up yet, and the Pats have been on fire since their loss to the Broncos. In the last three weeks, New England has won by an average of 19 points, and Tom Brady looks comfortable for the first time since last January.

5. New Orleans Saints [6] — They've been terrific for the last month, beating three good teams and barely losing at Carolina. The schedule doesn't get any easier after the bye, with three of the next five games against winning teams, the exceptions being the streaking Bucs and a dangerous Steelers team.

6. New York Giants [8] — Beat the Cowboys' quarterbacks, recording six sacks and four interceptions. Michael Strahan had a monster game, tying for the team lead in tackles, posting two sacks, and coming up with a crucial tipped ball. In their first three games, the defense looked like a liability, but since the bye, it's looked like a strength.

7. San Diego Chargers [3] — They'll be lower when Shawne Merriman gets suspended, but based on Sunday's game, the defense appears to have fallen apart already. After allowing an average of 11 points in their first five games, with no opponent reaching 20, the Chargers yielded 30 to a Kansas City offense that has struggled this season. No KC wide receiver had more than two catches, but Tony Gonzalez torched San Diego to the tune of 138 yards, and Larry Johnson had a monster day.

8. Cincinnati Bengals [14] — Chris Henry's suspension ends next week, but the Bengals are still missing some key players. Odell Thurman is out for the year due to a league suspension. Levi Jones and David Pollack are out for the year because of injuries. Cincinnati is still a competitive team, but those absences could doom its chances of contending for a Super Bowl.

9. Minnesota Vikings [16] — Probably shouldn't be so high, but I don't have anyone else to put in this space. The Vikings probably can't win their division, but they should waltz into the playoffs as a wildcard. After this week's game against New England, the Vikings have four straight laughers. They need more production out of Chester Taylor, who averaged under three yards per carry other than his 95-yard breakaway on Sunday.

10. Philadelphia Eagles [7] — The Eagles are a better team than this, but they can't secure victories. Philadelphia should probably be undefeated, but they gave away the Giants game in Week 2, and against Tampa, Donovan McNabb gave away three points in a game that was decided by two. At the end of the first half, at the Tampa six-yard-line with no timeouts, McNabb threw a four-yard pass to L.J. Smith, who was tackled in bounds and short of the goal line. The clock expired and Philly never attempted a field goal. Missed opportunities consistently cost this team games it should win.

11. Baltimore Ravens [13] — Jim Fassel's reign as offensive coordinator didn't last long. The defense is playing its best ball since the Marvin Lewis years, but Steve McNair has been a major disappointment at quarterback, despite a couple of late drives that helped the Ravens secure early-season victories. It'll be interesting to see how Brian Billick handles his QB situation if McNair continues to struggle.

12. Seattle Seahawks [5] — Matt Hasselbeck hasn't been playing well — he was 7-of-17 when he got hurt on Sunday — but his injury could really hurt the Seahawks. Seneca Wallace was a disaster in Week 7, committing three turnovers in a quarter and a half. Shaun Alexander's return should help the team (if for no other reason than that Mike Holmgren will call more runs) but not enough to outweigh Hasselbeck's absence.

13. Carolina Panthers [12] — It's always tough to predict their offense, which is basically dependent on Steve Smith, but the defense should just destroy Dallas next week. No matter who starts at quarterback, that offensive line is not equipped to handle Carolina's front four, so expect to see a lot of sacks and a couple of interceptions.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers [10] — Gave the game away, with three lost fumbles, nine penalties, and no answer for Alge Crumpler. Fumbles have been a particular problem for the Steelers this season, and rookie punt returner Santonio Holmes — who against Atlanta had a breakout game as a receiver — has been a decided liability. Charlie Batch is a capable backup, but it's reached the point that Pittsburgh fans should be concerned about Ben Roethlisberger's long-term health.

15. Atlanta Falcons [17] — In the first half of Sunday's game, both QBs had three TD passes. With several key members of its defensive line missing, the Falcons came up big when it mattered, getting turnovers and capitalizing on field position. Offensive line has become a concern here, too, as LG Matt Lehr has been suspended by the league, and talented RG Kynan Forney continues to battle shoulder problems.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [21] — This ranking might seem high for a 2-4 team, but in the last four weeks, they've beaten Cincy and Philly, with close losses to the Saints and Panthers. Ronde Barber, who had two interception returns for touchdowns, and Matt Bryant, who hit a 62-yard field goal to win the game, could both make a case as the best player of Week 7.

17. St. Louis Rams [18] — The Rams had a bye this week, but St. Louis sports fans weren't bored on Sunday, as their baseball team took the field for Game 2 of the World Series. The Cards lost on Sunday, but the Series is coming back to St. Louis, and it looks like this might finally be their year.

18. Kansas City Chiefs [19] — An up-and-down team. They blew out the 49ers, then barely squeaked by the Cardinals. They get humiliated by the Steelers, then upset the Chargers. As someone trying to make sense of all this, I'm going to avoid rash moves until they can put a three- or four-game streak together.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars [11] — This might be an overreaction to their ugly loss against the Texans, but an elite team shouldn't lose games against bad teams like Washington and Houston. The Jags have a lot of injuries right now, and that can be the difference between a great team and a mediocre one.

20. Dallas Cowboys [15] — Their three wins have come against teams with a combined record of 5-14. They lost to 3-3 Jacksonville by a touchdown, and against winning teams, they've lost by an average of 14 points. Tony Romo was unimpressive on Monday night, but he offers the Cowboys the best chance of making the playoffs at this point. Drew Bledsoe is too easy a target for defenses.

21. New York Jets [20] — Leon Washington is looking more and more like Curtis Martin's successor in green and white. The Jets had 16 rushing first downs against Detroit, and Washington led the way, running for 129 yards with two TDs and a 6.5 average. Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery give the Jets their best receiving tandem since Keyshawn Johnson and Wayne Chrebet.

22. Green Bay Packers [25] — Brett Favre and Ahman Green both had big numbers, but it helps when your defense keeps giving you the ball. In the 2006 NFL season, there's no cure for an ailing defense like Dolphins quarterbacks. On a separate note, Green is starting to look like Ricky Williams.

23. Washington Redskins [24] — At one point, Washington managed three consecutive penalties in such a way that Nick Novak had to kick off from his own five-yard line. The celebration penalty on Antwaan Randle El was a stretch (his celebration hardly constituted use of a prop), but Washington has by far the most penalty yards in the NFL this season, almost 70 ahead of the Eagles.

24. Buffalo Bills [22] — This team expected to win with its defense and a running game led by Willis McGahee. The defense is middle-of-the-pack, and the running game has been disappointing. McGahee is fifth in rushing yards, but he hasn't had a bye yet, and his average per carry is the lowest of any rusher in the top 10.

25. Houston Texans [31] — If I were voting for the Pro Bowl today — and I'm not, even though the voting is open — David Carr would be on my ballot. Carr is completing over 70% of his passes, and he's fourth in the NFL in passer rating, trailing only Peyton Manning, McNabb, and Marc Bulger. I still don't know about Mario Williams and Reggie Bush, but I think Houston's front office can feel okay about passing on Vince Young.

26. Tennessee Titans [27] — Their remaining schedule is nasty, with only three games against teams with losing records. The only one of those in Tennessee is this week's matchup against the suddenly-dangerous Texans, to determine which is the worst team in the AFC South.

27. Detroit Lions [28] — Allowing 27 points per game. I don't know who to blame more, defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson or offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who has Jon Kitna throwing on every down. The Lions can't keep their defense off the field, and Martz had the same problem as coach of the Rams.

28. Cleveland Browns [29] — Josh Cribbs is having a great year as a returner, but he's got to do a better job of holding on to the ball. Cribbs may see a larger role as the team shakes up its league-worst offense. Maurice Carthon, a hot head coaching prospect in recent years, has been fired as offensive coordinator.

29. Miami Dolphins [26] — Joey Harrington had 62 pass attempts against Green Bay. That might make sense if Miami were playing from behind all game, or if the Packers stacked the line to stop the run. But the Dolphins were winning at halftime, and Ronnie Brown averaged 3.9 yards per carry, which isn't great, but also isn't worth giving up on.

30. Arizona Cardinals [23] — Brought in Edgerrin James to supply a first-class running game, but they're last in the league in rushing yards per game, yards per carry, rushing TDs (tied), and they're the only team in the NFL without a run of at least 20 yards this season. Arizona's 2.5 yards per rush is incredibly poor.

31. San Francisco 49ers [30] — Both the Niners and their Week 8 opponent, Chicago, had byes this weekend. What do you think Norv Turner has been telling his offense this week? I'm guessing he didn't waste much time game-planning, instead assuring his players that Mike Nolan will be nicer at the press conference than Dennis Green was.

32. Oakland Raiders [32] — Got their first win, but I still like Frank Caliendo's take: "Both Mel Gibson and spinach have had a better year than the Raiders." It's true.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 9:17 PM | Comments (1)

World Series So Far a Snoozer

Major League Baseball fans by nature and necessity are both optimists and pessimists. At the beginning of each spring season, even the most forlorn just the season prior drink the Kool-Aid which allows team devotees to believe again that their team can win and get to the playoffs. We the fans remain optimistic until about June when the image becomes clearer as to which teams can begin to be taken seriously.

Yet, it usually is not until after the All-Star Break and the July 31st trading deadline that the optimists amongst us get a dose of reality when the true contenders start to emerge. The dog days of August used to be the ultimate test of grit and perseverance, but given the wildcard races coupled with the best-of-five divisional championship series, luck, the disabled list, and remaining depth of pitching rotations have but made the length of the baseball season ever the less meaningful.

So why should anyone be stunned that most sports fans would much rather do chores around the house in between college and NFL football televised games than watch the tail-end of the MLB season? And why should casual fans care about the MLB playoffs and the World Series when they do not seem to be enamored at season's end?

The reason this writer is asking these questions is because as an avid MLB baseball fan for several decades now, it has been difficult to watch any of this 2006 postseason. It has been lethargic and limp. Aside from Detroit's Cinderella story and the stunning resurgence of Tigers pitcher Kenny Rogers, neither the St. Louis Cardinals nor the Detroit Tigers have given us much reason to care thus far in the postseason, let alone the World Series. Thus, why not throw in a little controversy over pine tar on Kenny Rogers’ throwing hand in Game 2 to perhaps fuel the fires in order bring baseball back to the front page?

After the Tigers stunned the New York Yankees, the Eastern Division champions in the ALDS, and swept the Oakland Athletics, the Western Division champs, they sat around for a week in freezing weather in Detroit while the Cardinals won the National League pennant and overcame the New York Mets, who looked like they did not want to win it as badly.

The St. Louis Cardinals had one day in between their National League championship crown to refocus on the well-rested Detroit Tigers. Having stumbled into the postseason with their 83 season wins, it was the fewest amount of wins for a team appearing in a World Series since the 1973 Mets. The Cardinals finished with a 35-39 second half record, losing nine of their last 12 games and slated as the underdog.

And we have heard ad nauseam about the lack of depth in the Cardinals' bullpen and the injuries still plaguing their stars, Albert Pujols, (hamstring) Scott Rolen (shoulder) and David Eckstein (shoulder, side). We have also been inundated with stats of the mostly young roster of Detroit pitchers which were clearly better in the first half of 2006 than in the second.

Detroit also was not nearly as impressive in the second half of their season, having finished with 95 wins, but struggling in their last 50 games, finishing with a 31-50 record. They also sacrificed their once commanding lock as American League Central Division winners and would up as the American League wildcard team. But their combination of youth, veterans, and dominant pitching was what manager Jim Leyland used to sell to his team on becoming contenders, regardless.

But it comes down to actually playing the games and there have been more than enough off-field decisions which at least could eventually end up providing a compelling World Series. However, it's getting late early.

Game 1 gave us the first World Series game ever featuring two rookie starting pitchers. The Tigers' Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.63 ERA) dominated most of the year, although he did fatigue at times in his first big league season. Anthony Reyes pitched for the Cardinals. He was not even expected to start Game 1, given his truncated season with St. Louis with only five wins as a big leaguer. Due to the length of the NLCS, he was it. And he floored everyone and most of the Detroit lineup, pitching into the ninth inning and at one point retiring 17 batters in a row. Clearly, Verlander left his high heat at home in Game 1, and some say that between the frigid playing-time temperatures combined with adrenaline, he simply could not get it done.

Detroit looked lost in Game 1 with little offense except for centerfielder, Curtis Granderson, known more for his strikeouts with an American League-leading 174 than his on-base-percentage. Yet, leading up to the World Series, he struck out only 8 times. He has consistently been on base in the first two Series games along with left fielder Craig Monroe, who hit homers in each of the first two Series games and 5 for the postseason, tying Tiger-great Hank Greenberg. With veterans like right fielder Magglio Ordonez, catcher Pudge Rodriguez, and second baseman Placido Palanco, these two have been refreshing surprises.

The Cardinals won Game 1 by a score of 7-2, looking more like the NY Yankees than the Cardinals, so stingy in their offense previously during the postseason. But clearly, the poor defense, marginal pitching, and lack of offensive support, combined with the week's layoff and cold temperatures, caught the Tigers off-guard and immediately dubbed them underdogs again.

Game 2 saw the continuance of the uncanny performance of one Kenny Rogers on behalf of the Tigers. Although selected to the 2006 all-star starting rotation, Rogers has had the stigma of being a first-half pitcher the past few years, yet he finished the year with a record of 17-8 and 3.84 ERA. But he was preceded with a 0-3 record with a 8.87 ERA in postseason appearances.

But since Rogers' win against the Yankees in the ALDS, he is 4 innings shy of tying Christy Mathewson for his performance in the 1905 World Series with 27 scoreless innings. Rogers' 8 innings of shut-out baseball, surrendering only two hits in Game 2, has now reversed his prior 0-3 record to 3-0 in the 2006 postseason.

Cardinals starter Jeff Weaver, working on a resurrection of his own career having been released by the Anaheim Angels half-way through this 2006 season, in favor of his little brother Jered, is now with his fifth MLB club. He wore out his welcome in Detroit in the dawn of his career, was run out of town by the NY Yankees and was kicked out of Dodger Town prior to Anaheim. His dismal prior postseason record was 0-2 with a 9.76 ERA.

Weaver, too, looked like a man in disguise during the NLDS and NLCS and it was only a matter of time when the real Jeff Weaver would show up. While he did not have his usual type of meltdown in Game 2 of the Series, it indicated that he is cooling off. Much heralded Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan is not done yet in rehabilitating Weaver's mechanics and helping him control his inner demons.

The Cardinals could not figure out Kenny Rogers in Game 2, although closer Todd Jones gave them a glimmer of hope in the ninth inning when they were able to score a run and ruin the shutout. But perhaps with each team not knowing for sure which pitcher will really appear each night as the Series goes forward, it might be salvageable to witness, after all. Game 3 on Tuesday in St. Louis serves up 2005 Cy Young award winner Chris Carpenter (15-8, 3.09 ERA) against Detroit's upstart Nate Robertson (13-13, 3.84 ERA).

But despite Detroit's story about the 13-straight losing seasons, second most losses in history with 119 in 2003, their 90 losses in 2004, and 91 in 2005, they now have arrived. No, this World Series is not anticipated to come close to competing with the Cardinals/Tigers Series of 1934 when St. Louis prevailed or the 1968 Series when the Tigers pulled it out.

But hopefully, the present-day Tigers' story alone will be enough to garner enough interest in baseball to keep sports fans engaged. For without fan support, MLB, the national pastime, is headed to becoming past its prime in the not too distant future. And that simply cannot happen on behalf of us optimists!

So let's put some energy into this thing and play ball! (Before it snows again...)

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 9:01 PM | Comments (8)

Is Rutgers For Real?

Rutgers improved its record to 7-0 with its win last Saturday against Pitt, equaling the total number of wins from last year's 7-5 team and improving from a 1-11 mark only four short years ago.

Prior to the victory over Pitt, it was hard to take the Scarlet Knights very seriously. Their first six wins came against North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, Howard, South Florida, and Navy. Now, with the win over Pitt, this is an intriguing team.

Not known in recent history for its football prowess, Rutgers claims the distinction of participating in the first intercollegiate football game — a 6 goals to 4 goals victory over Princeton in 1869. Not much about that game (120 yards by 75 yards field; a round ball; and 25 players per team on the field) resembles the game played today.

The Scarlet Knights have emerged as a force in the Big East by playing dominating defense and ball control offense. Its opponents have averaged less than 9 points per game while its offense has enjoyed an average time of possession margin of more than five minutes.

Nearly half of Rutgers plays have run through sophomore running back Ray Rice. Rice has 201 carries, 1,124 yards, and 12 touchdowns. These stats are especially impressive knowing that opposing teams are keying on Rice — knowing that half the time he will be running at them.

How did Rice perform against Pitt? He carried the ball 39 times for 225 yards, including a 63-yard romp in the fourth quarter that setup his game-clinching scoring run.

This win over Pitt gives credence to Rutgers bid for BCS consideration. The Big East Conference now boasts three top-25 teams with Rutgers (19), Louisville (6), and West Virginia (4). The Scarlet Knights host Connecticut next week in a game they should win, setting up a November 9th contest at home against Louisville.

Should Rutgers prevail against Louisville, it would be heavily favored to win its next two games versus Cincinnati and Syracuse, setting up what would be a tremendous regular season ending game against West Virginia on December 2nd.

This scenario includes enough "what if" propositions to make its possible outcome a "fat chance," at best. However, an undefeated season, a top two ranking, and a bid in the championship game would breathe a little life into the whole BCS fiasco.

While, the Big East champion is awarded an automatic BCS bid, Rutgers would probably be a distant 30th or 40th choice of the money machine that is the BCS system. One can imagine the back room deals that would go down to try to keep Rutgers out of the national championship game and make sure that one of the perennial powerhouse (aka high revenue producing/television ratings) teams makes it instead.

Here's hoping we get to see some squirming on the part of the BCS!

Todd Beckstead is founder of MonsterDraft.com, a fantasy football draft resource.

Posted by Todd Beckstead at 8:33 PM | Comments (4)

October 23, 2006

Baseball's Frozen Finale

Funny, when one reminisces about World Series pasts, whether played in Boston, Toronto, Cleveland, or Milwaukee, images of players clad in ski masks the likes of that worn by Tiger infielder Placido Polanco do not come to mind.

Old newsreel images from Fall Classics involving teams such as the '59 White Sox, '65 Twins, '71 Pirates are not filled with fans bundled up in winter wear, umpires barking calls with frosted breath, or pitchers constantly blowing on their hands. We remember the '54 Giants/Indians matchup for The Catch, not The Wind off the Lake. Why is that? Has baseball season become too long for its own good?

One reason our first memories of the World Series are not associated with Ol' Man Winter is that before 1969, there were no playoffs in baseball. Teams had 162 games (and prior to 1961, 154) to settle their differences of talent, and the reward for a pair of superlative ballclubs was a league pennant. When the game celebrated its 100th birthday, the first playoff system pitted the winners of the new AL East and West and NL East and West division winners against one another in an easy-to-follow, three-game elimination. Didn't even exhaust an entire pitching staff, much less dugout heaters. Not a mitten to be found in the bullpen.

The three division format of recent vintage, and the wildcard playoff format are both understandable, given the amount of total teams and their geographic disparity. There is, however, no logic behind the length of the exhibition campaign, the 162-game regular season, five-game wildcard round, and seven-game LCS that precedes the World Series.

Somewhere in all that diamond brilliance there is room for cuts. Bob Gibson was scary enough without pitching on Halloween. We've gone from Eddie Yost and Goose Goslin to ghosts and goblins. Throw in playoff rain-outs, and we may know who carries the U.S. Senate before we know who hoists the Series trophy. Such a schedule involves a whole lot of overlap with football, both collegiate and professional.

Besides, who wants to watch the world's best batters struggle to keep warm while swinging at 90 mph fastballs in 40-degree chill? In Sunday night's game, Cardinal centerfielder Jim Edmonds was wearing the kind of jacket under his shirt that one used to only see worn by pitchers on baseball cards. Polanco looks so uncomfortable out there, a reality show should be staged to see if a fan can get him out. Remember poor Luis Sojo several years back, wrapped in swaddling clothes? Yaz never went though this. The FOX on-field broadcast crew looks dressed to analyze a December Packers game.

MLB could trim 12 games from its regular season, cut the wildcard round to best two-of-three, and limit the LCS to five games, and accomplish several things. The regular season would end earlier and compete less with football and other sports. In 150 games, given injuries and days off, standards such as 20 wins, 100 RBI, the .300 average, and 50 stolen bases would not be altered. Modifying the playoff rounds that precede the Series would have the effect of making the last competition special in that only then would there be a best-of-seven. The entire deal would end on a reasonable (and just as importantly, seasonal) October date.

Somehow, baseball seems less itself when the dress code changes too much. It is one thing when an army unit has different dress standards for fair and inclement weather, respectively. It is quite another when a shortstop's agility is compromised by insulated undergarments, or a batter's tendencies by a hesitancy to crisply unite bat to ball with frozen wrists. Wind has always been part of baseball, from Candlestick to Wrigley. Rain has always challenged the planning of pitching rotations, from Puerto Rico to Hawaii. But snow?

Posted by Bijan C. Bayne at 8:58 PM | Comments (4)

The NHL is Back

With the 2006-2007 season underway, it is safe to say that the NHL is thriving. Not only does the NHL still have its diehard fan base, but it will regain casual fans starting this year. This is the year hockey will shine again in the world of sports, and here are the reasons why:

No More Questions

The 2005-2006 NHL season was filled with adjustments to new rules, confusion as to who was playing for whom, and questions as to whether the sport would ever recover from its year of lockout. But now that the growing pains of the Collective Bargaining Agreement have worked themselves through, those doubts are over.

It's Anyone's Rink

Consider this: six games into the season, the Minnesota Wild were one of the two undefeated teams in the league (Buffalo is the other and remains undefeated). Also in the Northwest Division, the Calgary Flames, who finished at the top of the division last season, are in the basement. That's not to say that Minnesota doesn't deserve its squeaky-clean start or that Calgary is a bad team. But at the same time, the teams' rankings probably won't stay where they are.

Standings will become a game of "musical brackets," if you will, because the competition is so even between teams. No one team stands out as the team to beat.

Salary cap limitations have reduced the number of high-profile players on any given team, thus eliminating the possibility of an all-star team. Who wants an all-star team except at the All-Star Game, anyway? All-star teams don't really work in the long-run. Does Team Canada 2006 ring a bell? Or how about the New York Rangers in the years leading up to the lockout? Money didn't buy them a championship.

So no matter who it is, your team has a legitimate chance at winning the Stanley Cup. That's a huge change from years past. If you still don't believe it, think about the eighth-seeded Edmonton Oilers making it to the finals last season.

He Shoots, He Scores!

Goal counts are up since changing the width of the net (bigger) and the size of the goalies' pads (smaller). What's better than seeing more of the most exciting part of a hockey game? ... besides a good fight, that is. For most fans — especially the casual fan — a higher goal tally equates a more exciting game, and a more exciting game is more likely to be watched.

Tied Up

Has anyone noticed how many games have ended after regulation this season? Twenty-five percent. You read that right. Of the 104 games played from opening day until October 20, eight games were settled in overtime, while 18 games ended in a shootout.

Clearly, games have not been won easily this season. This shows that teams are more evenly matched and games are more competitive. Again, this raises the excitement factor. A 4-4 deadlock in the third period has much more suspense than an 8-1 blowout.

Rookies Rule

Last year, Washington's Alexander Ovechkin and Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby became the superstars of their teams — and that was in their rookie season. This year, the same could happen for Wojtek Wolski of Colorado and Evgeni Malkin of Pittsburgh. Wolski's three goals and one assist have helped fill the void left by Alex Tanguay, who was shipped to Calgary in an offseason trade. Malkin scored a goal in his NHL debut on Oct. 18; a shoulder injury sidelined him until the seventh game of the season.

The Crosby/Malkin combo on the Pittsburgh offense is a reflection of a trend that's spreading across the NHL: younger players are expected to play harder and contribute more. For some teams, such as Colorado, this is due to budget issues that have sent several star players and their million-dollar contracts to other teams. For others, such as Pittsburgh, young talent is nearly all they have.

In any case, hockey is capitalizing on young talent more than any of the "big three" sports — football, baseball, and basketball — and that makes it stand out.

Shine on, NHL.

***

Here is a breakdown of NHL teams to watch for this season.

On the Rise

Vancouver Canucks — For those who have followed the news, this should be a no-brainer. For those that didn't, here's what happened: the Canucks signed Roberto Luongo in exchange for Todd Bertuzzi. For the clueless people who don't understand the impact of that trade, read this. Bertuzzi's new start in Florida is not only refreshing for him, but for the Canucks, as well.

St. Louis Blues — Offseason transactions should keep the Blues from having another embarrassing season. Manny Legace will vastly improve goaltending, and Dan Hinote will add some grit to the Blues' game. Doug Weight, back from a Stanley Cup win in Carolina, will provide the solid leadership this team needs.

Nashville Predators — Adding Paul Kariya last year was a smart move. Adding Jason Arnott this year is even better. Don't underestimate this team.

Standing Tall

Buffalo Sabres — Since Chris Drury became captain of the team, the Sabres have turned into a top contender in the Eastern Conference. Last year, Buffalo was defeated by Carolina in the Eastern Conference finals. This year, it could be Buffalo going for the Stanley Cup.

Calgary Flames — Since 2004, the Flames have been a brutal force on their opponents. That won't change this year. If anything, adding Alex Tanguay will create an even more dangerous roster.

Question Marks

Colorado Avalanche — If younger players such as Paul Stastny and Wojtek Wolski step up, the loss of key players such as Alex Tanguay and Rob Blake might not have a huge impact. Jose Theodore's goaltending must be top-notch if the team wants to stay atop the Northwest Division.

Atlanta Thrashers — Nearly making the playoffs last season was a positive step for the Thrashers, who have struggled since their beginning in 1999. Is this their year?

Los Angeles Kings — After three seasons of missing the playoffs, this club really cleaned house. Dean Lombardi left San Jose to take over as general manager. Marc Crawford and Dan Cloutier came from Vancouver to be head coach and goaltender, respectively. Rob Blake is back. Luc Robitalle and Jeremy Roenick are gone. Such dramatic changes may be too much too fast or exactly what the Kings need.

Posted by Charlynn Smith at 8:19 PM | Comments (0)

October 21, 2006

Meet the Mets, Message By Message

Thursday night was one of the most surreal fan experiences I've ever had, and I was nowhere near a stadium or a television.

I have a habit of scheduling important moments in my life in direct competition with the sports I love. My senior prom in high school came during a crucial Stanley Cup Playoff game for the New Jersey Devils, leaving my date (a Rangers fan, no less) and I pressing a transistor radio against the door of the ballroom in order to hear the static-filled play-by-play.

When the Devils defeated Dallas for the Cup years later, I was on a three-hour drive back home after covering a high-school championship soccer match. I listed to the game on my car radio, the sound coming and going, and I arrived in my apartment just in time to watch Jason Arnott score the game-winner. I remember using a pillow to muffle my screams of euphoria so I didn't wake up my now-ex-wife.

During this entire National League Championship Series between my Mets and the Cardinals, I had a sneaking suspicion that Game 7 — if necessary — would fall on the only night I wouldn't be able watch the game: Thursday night, a night on which I had tickets to see Wilco in concert at the quaint 9:30 Club in Washington, DC.

If you're a baseball fan, you're obviously thinking, "Well, just don't go to the show." If you're a Wilco fan, you're thinking, "Yeah, just don't go to the show ... and then give me your ticket, sucker!"

I had to go; they're one of the greatest live bands in the world, and I had yet to see them live. Plus, it was a win-win situation for me: if the Mets took Game 7, I leave the gig a happy boy; if they lose Game 7 ... well, at least I drank myself numb with Jeff Tweedy instead of drinking myself numb on a postgame phone call with my father, eulogizing another heartbreaking defeat (which happens way too often ... we're both Jets fans, you know).

But I wasn't going to be able to enjoy this show without knowing what was happening at Shea. Bringing a radio was out of the question, both because I was at a rock show and because if Tweedy saw it he'd run off the stage and punch me in the face for my desecration of his art.

The cell phone, however, was still an option.

It used to be that checking your phone at a concert was poor etiquette; but since every other douchebag in the audience now thinks they're Annie Leibowitz with their stupid camera phones, it's as accepted a part of the club experience as some idiot plowing through 300 people in the middle of the set just to get another Stella Artois for him and his frat brother.

I organized a small army of friends to give me the blow-by-blow of Game 7. I literally received 60 text messages during the concert, updating me on everything from scoring to pitching changes to the weather in Flushing. Sometimes the bass from the speakers would overwhelm the vibrations of the phone, so I was constantly checking it for updates.

It was during the encore that I received word that Yadier Molina, who looks like a 9-year-old dressed up as a catcher for Halloween, had just hit a two-run homer off of Aaron Heilman in the top of the ninth to give the Cardinals a 3-1 lead. I don't know if I was more stunned by the sudden scoring change or the fact that Billy Wagner no longer had ownership over ninth inning non-save choke jobs.

Of course, since the Mets are the biggest C-teases in New York not named the Jets, they open the bottom of the ninth with some hope. My phone was buzzing like Tweedy's guitar: Valentin gets on with a hit, followed by Chavez. Cliff Floyd's coming up, and I'm thinking this is Kirk Gibson 2006, although no one's confusing Adam Wainwright for Dennis Eckersley.

Bzzzzzzz... "floyd goes down looking like an acheles (sp) ass bitch ... reyes up."

Bzzzzzzz... "reyes pops out 2 on 2 out lo ‘dropping a' duca up last chance."

Bzzzzzzz... "lo duca walked beltran up bases loaded."

Then, just a few seconds later.

Bzzzzzzz... "beltran goes down looking 3-1 cards final sorry dude maybe next year."

I look up at the rafters and shake my head in disbelief before turning to my concert mates and saying "It's over and they lost."

Bzzzzzzz... "Game over :( drive safe I love you!"

Bzzzzzzz... "{expletive deleted} ... sorry dude."

The epic show ended just past midnight. The lights came up and the sellout crowd turned away from the stage and began its impression of a cattle drive towards to the two exits. As I shuffled ahead, I noticed a dude in a dark blue Mets hat standing by the bar, downing a beer. I walked from the middle of the hall over to him.

"Did ya hear?

"Yeah," he replied, clearly soused by ultimately sobered by the defeat, "I heard."

Turns out he was doing the text messaging thing, too. Once he heard the Mets started to rally in the ninth, he actually left the Wilco show for a pub down the block.

"I got there just in time to see Beltran take strike three," he said.

We both lamented what could have been, cracked a few jokes about being Mets fans, and shared a sweaty, drunken hug.

Like me, this was a guy who was grateful for Wilco's anesthesia on an otherwise painful, painful night.

***

This loss doesn't hurt like 1998 against the Dodgers. If that team goes to the World Series and beats Oakland, then we're talking about a Mets dynasty of the late-1980s instead of concentrating nostalgia on Buckner's five-hole.

In fact, there's a small amount of miracle in these 2006 Mets, considering the fact that Pedro Martinez and El Duque — both starters, both with more than a smidgen of postseason experience — were on the shelf for the postseason. This team pushed the Cardinals to the brink with a rookie in Game 6 and Oliver Perez in Game 7.

I mean, c'mon: Oliver Perez ... that's starting a batting cage pitching machine in the biggest game of the season.

And yet the Mets were right there, thanks to Perez, who deserves nothing but respect for pitching the game of his life.

They didn't lose the series in Game 7. They lost it in Game 2, when Wagner crapped the bed in the ninth inning, blowing a tie game with Carlos Delgado, David Wright, and Shawn Green due up in the bottom of the frame at home.

And they lost it in Game 3, when Steve Trachsel gave up five runs in the first two innings. Trachsel has always been a workhorse, but he's also been a pitcher that polarizes fans. Even his champions have to agree that his gutless performance in the postseason means he's played his last game as a Met.

Notice I haven't said much about the Cardinals. Really, what is there to say? Beyond a tip of the cap to some of their role players like Molina and Scott Spiezio, who should really shave before a Penthouse photographer mistakenly starts shooting his chin, there's nothing good I can say about St. Louis. The Tigers are going to roast these birds in the World Series.

Okay, there is someone I'd like to mention, and its name is Braden Looper.

The New York Daily News reported that the Cardinals reliever, a former Mets "closer," led his teammates in a chant of "Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole!", mocking the "Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose" cheer the Mets fans lavish on Jose Reyes.

I'm not surprised: Looper obviously has no love for these New York fans that paid good money to see him blow saves like they were performance incentives in his contract. Maybe he's also a little jealous of Reyes, who is an undrafted player that's gone on to become a popular superstar while Looper is a No. 3 overall pick who's gone on to become an anonymous middle reliever.

Like I said, I'm not surprised that Looper mimicked the Mets fans. He's pretty good at impersonations, having impersonated a major leaguer since 1998.

But hey, I'm just a bitter Mets fans, as if there's any other kind.

And whether it's at the end of September or in the middle of October, it remains our battle cry: "Wait 'till next year."

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 8:05 PM | Comments (2)

October 20, 2006

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 7

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Carolina @ Cincinnati

After last week's 23-21 win in Baltimore, the Panthers will look to continue running the gauntlet of AFC North teams. After defeating the Browns and Ravens in consecutive weeks, Carolina will face the suddenly reeling Bengals, who have averaged 13 points a game in losses to the Patriots and Buccaneers.

"The Bengals are playing like 'Ben-Gals,'" says Panther wide receiver Steve Smith, shaking a double-team from two autograph-seekers at a local mall. "The question is not, 'Will we beat the Bengals?' but 'Will the Panther cheerleaders hook up with some Bengal bad boys after the game?' Hey, here's a riddle? What do Panther cheerleaders and Bengal footballers have in common? A taste for alcohol and a penchant for ending up in confined spaces."

The Bengals dropped their second in a row, losing 14-13 to previously winless Tampa Bay. The Bucs were aided by a questionable roughing penalty against Cincinnati lineman Justin Smith, who sacked Bruce Gradkoski. The penalty kept their game-winning drive alive.

"If anyone is looking for babysitters with impeccable references," says the Bengals Marvin Lewis, "then NFL officials are a good bet. I'm not sure how they are with children, but they sure know how to treat a quarterback."

The Bengals may have home-field advantage, but the Panthers feature the most feared offensive player, Smith, and the most feared defender, Julius Peppers, in the NFL. Those two should make the difference, as Carolina wins, 26-23.

Detroit @ N.Y. Jets

The Lions finally picked up their first win of the season, which can mean only one thing: Roy Williams did not guarantee a victory. The Lions beat the Bills 20-17 behind Williams' big day, with 10 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown.

"I think we were inspired by the Tigers' postseason run," says Williams. "It's pretty embarrassing when a baseball team has won more series than we have games."

The Jets took over sole possession of second place in the AFC East with a 20-17 win over the Dolphins. Chad Pennington and Laveranues Coles hooked up twice for scores, and the Jets withstood a late Miami rally.

"Laveranues and I have a special connection," says Pennington. "Wait a minute, let me rephrase that. Laveranues and I hook up on occasion. Uh, let me try again. Whenever Laveranues and I make eye contact, I see fireworks. Umm, that doesn't work, either. Let's just say I pass, he catches."

Not that there's anything wrong with that, Chad.

Pennington has a huge day, which for him is 191 yards passing, two touchdowns, and no arm pain afterwards.

Jets win, 23-16.

Green Bay @ Miami

It's a battle of one-win teams as the 1-5 Dolphins host the 1-4 Packers. And, appropriately enough, the Dolphins' home is no longer called Pro Player Stadium. The Dolphins lost 20-17 in the Meadowlands to the Jets and are dead-last in the AFC East.

"Obviously, we have a lot less fight in us than some college teams in Florida," says Miami coach Nick Saban. "Wow, what a brawl between Miami and Florida International. That should have been on pay-per-view. And what about the player for Miami swinging his helmet? My guys are making fewer hits with their helmets on. Incidentally, the entire Bengals scouting organization was on hand to witness that brawl, and several players flew up their draft boards."

The Packers will be in search of their second win, and Brett Favre will continue the quest of Dan Marino's NFL record of 420 touchdown passes. Favre needs 17 to equal the former Miami great.

"Should Brett ever break my record," says Marino, "I will be on hand to gracefully congratulate him, unlike the 1972 Dolphins, who are the biggest bunch of poor sports in football. I hear they already have some hate mail en route to Arizona head coach Dennis Green for letting the Bears off the hook. Anyway, I have the utmost respect for Brett, although I would never, ever lose a girlfriend to Ben Stiller."

"Thanks, Dan," replies Favre, "for those kind words. By the way, you look fabulous. Are you down to your playing weight? What was that? 210? I play at 220, plus the eight ounces that my Super Bowl ring weighs. Anyway, I know you'll be there to shake my hand should I break your record. And I'll be wearing my Super Bowl ring so you can touch it."

While Favre has lost a receiving weapon, Koren Robinson, to a one-year drug suspension, Miami's Joey Harrington has gained one in Marcus Vick, who signed with the Dolphins from the practice squad. Vick reportedly rejected Miami's monetary offer and asked to be compensated with McDonald's gift certificates and ammunition for his Glock.

In this evenly-matched contest, the Dolphins' ground game is the difference. Ronnie Brown rushes for 124 yards and a touchdown. Olindo Mare's fourth-quarter field goal provides the game-winning points.

Miami wins, 23-20.

Jacksonville @ Houston

Holding a 6-3 lead at the half in Dallas, the Texans were outscored 31-0 by the Cowboys in the second half, giving up three touchdowns to Terrell Owens. The Texans could not muster a touchdown, and David Carr, previously the league's highest-rated quarterback, only managed 128 yards with two interceptions.

"I guess I'm not the highest-rated passer anymore," says Carr. "Which is fine, because I really felt out of place there. The Cowboys really shook me up. With the game out of hand, I was replaced behind center by Sage Rosenfels, whose name sounds less like a quarterback and more like a poet laureate. Shouldn't he have a locker beside of Maya Angelou, and not me? But we should have things in order by Week 13, when we'll be playing the Raiders for possibly the number one pick in the draft."

The Jaguars enjoyed a week six bye, and coach Jack Del Rio was pleased to build on their Week 5 41-0 whipping of the Jets.

"Hey, who was the creative genius who named Houston's team the 'Texans?'" asks Del Rio. "That's just brilliant. I'm seriously considering changing our name to the 'Floridians.' Anyway, Jaguar football is all about defense, and I spent the entire offseason devising a plan to stop Reggie Bush, whom I assumed the Texans would draft. But they didn't. Instead, they chose defensive end Mario Williams. So, I spent 15 minutes devising a scheme to stop Williams. I call it 'blocking him.' I'm a genius."

Everyone knows the Jags own the Texans, unless it's the last game of the year and Jacksonville has a playoff spot riding on the outcome. Then they lose. But this is just a regular season game, and the Jaguars need every division win possible to offset the two losses to the Colts they'll inevitably suffer. Byron Leftwich throws two touchdown passes, and Rashean Mathis makes his league-leading fifth interception.

Jacksonville wins, 27-15.

New England @ Buffalo

With the Bengals and Colts not too impressive lately, the Patriots are looking quite promising as the AFC favorite. New England already has a two-game lead on the Jets, and with a win in Buffalo, the Pats would hold a four-game lead in the loss column over the Bills.

"By Week 10," says Tom Brady, "I see a 'y' by our name in the standings. By Week 11, there should be an 'x.' But before all that, in Week 9, we'll face the Colts in New England. It'll be just like old times. Before the game, I'll chat with Peyton Manning and try to convince him once again that you don't win Super Bowls by tirelessly starring in commercials. I must say, though, that Peyton certainly has the acting chops, and I can definitely see him in the booth after he retires, or maybe in movies co-starring with Leslie Nielsen or Jackie Chan."

The Bills returned from Detroit to snow, as Buffalo was hit with an early fall snowstorm that dropped several inches on the city.

"That's just great," complains J.P. Losman. "Something to remind the people of Buffalo that it's hockey season. The Sabres are undefeated. Who wants to see the Bills play when you can catch a Sabres game and see more offense and better hitting than we can offer? And head coach Lindy Ruff is the greatest goon-turned-coach in the NHL."

Buffalo kicker Rian Lindell records a natural hat trick, kicking three field goals, but the Patriots, behind Brady's two touchdown passes to former Raider Doug Gabriel, the luckiest man in the world, prevail, 24-9.

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

What is this? The losers' bracket of the New Orleans Superdome Invitational? In the last two weeks, the Bucs and Eagles have both lost to the Saints. Two weeks ago, Reggie Bush beat the Bucs with a punt return touchdown; last week, the Eagles fell on John Carney's 31-yard field goal as time expired.

"As you know," says Donovan McNabb, "the Saints held the ball for the final 8:26 during their drive for the winning field goal. What's an offense to do when they can't even get the ball back? It's not like I'm asking a lot of our defense. I didn't want to put to much pressure on them, so I didn't ask for a three-and-out series. I went conservative, and simply asked for a 15-and-out series. They couldn't even handle that. Sixteen plays later, the Saints win and we don't have any time left."

Tampa coach Jon Gruden has formed quite a bond with quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, nicknamed the "Pole" for his Polish roots and other reasons. Gruden likes Gradkowski's toughness and decision-making, and his ability to perform under pressure.

"Bruce is like a son to me," says Gruden, "except he looks older than I do. He brings everything to the table that Chris Simms does, plus a spleen."

Gradkowski continues his strong play, with two touchdown passes, but McNabb tops him with three, and the Eagles hold on for a 27-23 win.

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta

Are the Steelers and Falcons heading in different directions? The Falcons are still the NFL's best rushing team, but gave up 259 yards on the ground to the Giants in a 27-14 loss. Meanwhile, the Steelers, after a 1-3 start, destroyed the Chiefs 45-7 to go to 2-3, leaving them only a game behind the Ravens and Bengals in the loss column in the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger was 16-of-19 for 238 yards and two touchdowns.

"Finally," says Roethlisberger, "I can stop yelling 'Fore!' every time I throw the ball. But, I still think it's a good idea to yell 'Fore!' when I get on my motorcycle."

Okay, so I guess the inevitable next question is: Do the Steelers have their swagger back?

"I'll answer that," quips Bill Cowher. "It's just like Justin Timberlake sings. We've got our 'SwaggerBack.' Actually, I don't think Timberlake sings a word of that song, but who cares? As long as he's exposing women's breasts on the Super Bowl half-time stage, then he's all right in my book. The bottom line is this: the Steelers are back in sync. That's how Steela' got its groove back. Now, don't ruin my euphoria by telling me we've only won one game in a row."

Early in the season, the Falcons were considered Super Bowl contenders. Now they're looking like a team that will have to struggle to make the playoffs.

"Playoffs!? Playoffs!" says Atlanta coach Jim Mora, Jr. "Nah, I'm not even going to finish the rest of that famous quote from my father. If there's a poster child for the one-dimensional team, then I guess we would be that. You know when you rush for 223 yards and lose by 13, then you're one-dimensional, and you've got problems. Look at us. How can we be considered a playoff team when we're playing at home and 1 1/2 point underdogs? By the way, give me $50 on the Steelers to cover."

Willie Parker rushes for 135 yards and a touchdown, and Roethlisberger throws a TD pass to Hines Ward.

Pittsburgh gets back to .500 with a 24-19 win.

San Diego @ Kansas City

San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson scored four touchdowns in the Chargers' 48-19 demolition of the 49ers in San Francisco. Tomlinson's first TD was his 84th as a Charger, and he passed Lance Alworth on the all-time San Diego TD list.

"I also passed Steve Foley on the highway after the game," says Tomlinson.

Kansas City's Larry Johnson struggled last week against the Steelers, with only 26 yards rushing, and also recorded one tackle when he hauled Troy Polamalu down by the hair after Polamalu intercepted a pass.

"Well, I guess it's not a weave," says Johnson, placing a lock of Polamalu's in his NFL scrapbook. "Just one question, Troy. Do you condition?"

Can the Chargers be stopped? By someone other than their own coach? Actually, the Chargers could play Martyball and still beat the Chiefs. But Schottenheimer opens things up, calling a flea-flicker, a quadruple reverse, and the Statue of Liberty play. He even goes for it on fourth-and-inches from the Chiefs' 11-yard line.

Chargers win, 31-13.

Denver @ Cleveland

A week after defeating the Ravens 13-3, the Broncos beat the Raiders by the same score and have allowed only one touchdown this year. The Denver defense is surrendering an average of only 7.4 points per game.

"That's pretty darn impressive," says Cleveland head coach Romeo Crenel. "Sure, the Denver defense is awesome, but lost in all the love for the defense is their anemic offense. They average only 12.4 points per game, which is better than only one team in the league, the Raiders. And this year, if you're only one of anything ahead of the Raiders, then you're in trouble, brother. We know what we have to do, and that's keep the Bronco offense on the field and wait for Jake Plummer to lick his fingers and turn the ball over."

Denver's Mike Shanahan knows the Broncos must sort out their offensive problems this week, because 12.4 points won't do them any good against Indianapolis next week.

"I don't know what's worse: only scoring 13 on the Raiders, or giving up three to them," says Shanahan. "As long as our defense doesn't give up touchdowns, we're in every game. I know we have issues on offense, and as soon as I have the guts to bench Jake Plummer, those issues will be solved."

Jason Elam gets his usual workout, with more field goals than extra points, and the Broncos win, 13-10.

Arizona @ Oakland

"Pink Taco. Black Hole. Pink Taco. Black Hole."

Randy Moss awakens in a cold sweat muttering those words, knowing that the NFL trade deadline has passed, and he's still a Raider.

"Dang! Usually when Randy asks, Randy gets, and I don't even have to pay for it," says Moss. "Madd Skillz wants to play for a contender. Look at the A's. They make the playoffs and lose, and they fire their manager. The Ravens lose, and Brian Billick fires Jim Fassel, his offensive coordinator, and convenient scapegoat. Neil Rackers misses a field goal, and the Cardinals fire their offensive coordinator. We're 0-5, Jerry Porter's suspended, our offensive coordinator's previous experience is running a bed and breakfast, and Art Shell, well, he was hired by Al Davis, who's the only person better than me at running a team into the ground. What's this world come to when I can't even get anyone fired?"

The Cardinals were on the verge of upsetting the Bears and handing them their first loss, then two defensive touchdowns, a punt return for a touchdown, and a missed Neil Rackers field goal later, the Bears left the desert with a 24-23 win. Arizona head coach Dennis Green was none too happy.

"If you want to crown the Bears, then crown them!" Green screamed in a press conference after the game.

Okay, I will, Denny. Here you go, Bears. I present you with this paper crown I got my kids at Burger King. That's the prize you win for beating the Cardinals. You also win a free small soft drink.

If the Raiders want to silence the 0-16 talk, this is the week to do it. With upcoming games against the Steelers, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers, it doesn't get any easier. The Raiders end their winless streak; Moss scores a touchdown, and Lamont Jordan rushes for 100 yards. Neil Rackers' 62-yard field goal attempt as time expires hits the crossbar.

Oakland wins, 27-25.

Minnesota @ Seattle

Seattle stunned the Rams 30-28 in St. Louis on Josh Brown's 54-yard field goal as time expired, lifting the Seahawks to sole possession of first place in the NFC West.

"It's always satisfying beating the Rams," says Seahawks coach Mike Holgren. "Especially when their coach starts prematurely celebrating a win. Hey, Scott Linehan, you pansy, any fool knows an illegal formation penalty doesn't require a 10-second clock runoff. It's right there in the rule book on page 1,238. Don't you know and illegal formation from a false start? Here's a false start: you celebrating before you've won the game, which you didn't."

The Vikings will face the Seahawks after enjoying a bye week, and Minnesota players apparently heeded the word of coach Brad Childress, who warned them to "behave themselves" during their week off.

"As far as I know," says Childress, "there was no funny business on the promenade deck of any boat on Lake Minnetonka last week. Although I did happen to see Fred Smoot encouraging a team of young ladies to ‘stroke' as they raced their rowboats down a local stream. But where's the harm in that?"

Seattle's Shaun Alexander is out two more weeks with a broken bone in his foot, so the Vikings' game plan is clear: stop Matt Hasselbeck, Darrell Jackson, and Deion Branch, while controlling the clock with running back Chester Taylor. Sounds like too much to ask of the Vikings, especially after asking them not to get freaky on a boat during their off week. Hasselbeck throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, and Josh Brown kicks two field goals.

Seattle wins, 27-24.

Washington @ Indianapolis

The Redskins are in turmoil after suffering a 25-22 defeat at home to the Titans, who had previously not beaten anyone before shocking Washington. The loss left the 'Skins 2-4 in the NFC East, in last place. Washington owner Daniel Snyder is perplexed, unsure why his all-star team of head coach Joe Gibbs, offensive coordinator Al Saunders, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is not working.

"I don't know whether to fire someone," says Snyder, "or just buy a new team and start from scratch. While I contemplate that, I've commissioned a artist to paint a portrait of Joe Gibbs crossing the Delaware, trailing Andy Reid, Bill Parcells, and Tom Coughlin crossing the Delaware."

Obviously, giving up over 200 yards rushing to the Titans two weeks ago inspired the Colts to act, and they traded for defensive tackle Anthony "Booger" McFarland of Tampa Bay on Tuesday.

"Of all the defensive tackles offered to us," says Tony Dungy, "it was in our best interest to pick Booger."

Although I can't put my finger on it, for some reason, I think the Redskins will keep it fairly close. Clinton Portis complained about not getting enough carries last week. That won't be the case this week. Portis rushes 28 times for 140 yards, but the 'Skins can't stop Peyton Manning when it counts.

Colts win, 27-21.

N.Y. Giants @ Dallas

Terrell Owens caught three touchdown passes, tying a career high, as the Cowboys blew out the Texans 34-6. It was a tumultuous week in Dallas, as Owens and receivers coach Todd Haley clashed over Owens' practice habits and general bitchy attitude.

"Nothing three touchdowns won't solve," says Owens as he signs Haley's paycheck. "Everyone's happy now. I was named Michael Irvin's No. 1 playmaker for the week, and Miami Hurricane Anthony Reddick threw the week's No. 1 haymaker with his helmet swing. I'm a lot like Irvin. He was a physical, trash-talking receiver, and so am I. Our only difference is Michael had run-ins with law enforcement, and I have run-ins with head coaches, quarterbacks, receivers coaches, and various other people who hate me."

Dallas in not unique to controversial receivers. The Giants have their own in tight end Jeremy Shockey, who has no qualms about criticizing coaches. But, when it's game time, Shockey comes to play. In the Giants' 27-14 win over the Falcons, Shockey caught six passes for 55 yards and two touchdowns.

"I'm a playmaker, just like T.O.," says Shockey, "and like Irvin, I'm from the 'U'(se your helmet as a weapon)."

T.O. on Monday night in Dallas? Whether he's signing a football or ogling a half-naked Nicolette Sheridan, Owens comes up big on Monday nights. T.O. catches two touchdown passes, and a big third quarter hit by DeMarcus Ware spells early retirement (for the night) for Tiki Barber.

Dallas wins, 30-27.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 4:45 PM | Comments (0)

October 19, 2006

NFL Week 7 Bye Report

So is there a petition I can sign to get Jay-Z back into retirement?

10 things we learned in Week 6:

1. So far, the MVP has to be Steve Smith. That guy just tears up the defense. Why the Ravens didn't just matchup Chris McAlister on him one-on-one is beyond me.

2. USC could play the Raiders' schedule and win more games than Art Shell's rag-tag loser patrol.

3. Speaking of USC, here's a prediction: Dennis Green goes back to the TV booth and is replaced by Trojan coach Pete Carroll, who pulls a Kelvin Sampson and gets out right before NCAA sanctions cripple the program.

4. The real story out of St. Louis wasn't the good offense, but the shaky defense by both teams.

5. Eric Mangini really is doing a good job with the Jets. They would have blown the Miami game for sure with Herman Edwards on the sideline.

6. You're nuts if you think the Bears are going 19-0. I'm not saying they're not good, but they're not undefeated-season good.

7. The Tennessee running game is for real. At Washington in Week 6: 41 rushes for 194 yards (4.7 avg) and an 11-minute advantage in time of possession. That's after rushing for 214 at Indianapolis the week before.

8. I can't decide which is more annoying, baseball Joe Buck or football Joe Buck. At least in football, he has Troy Aikman to keep him grounded. Then again, in a booth with Tim McCarver, Buck gets to look better by comparison. Tough call.

9. Anybody still on that Dolphins bandwagon? Anybody?

10. It's still early, but my Patriots/Panthers Super Bowl pick is looking pretty good. Of course it wasn't exactly an “out of the box” pick, but still, I'm taking credit whenever I can. That's just the kind of guy I am.

On to the Week 7 Bye Report. With six games down, Chicago, Tennessee, St. Louis, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Baltimore represent a good cross-section of the league at the almost-halfway-point. From the upper class (Bears, Saints) to the middle class (Ravens, Rams) to the lower class (Titans, 49ers), teams are starting to find out what they're really made of.

Chicago Bears

(6-0, 3-0 NFC North, first place)

Overview — Let's just leave this one to Dennis Green. After all, who are we to argue with a podium beater? Take that, inanimate object! "The Bears are who we thought they were! Now, if you want to crown them, then crown their ass! But they are who they thought they were! And we let them off the hook!"

Translation: the Bears were down 23-3 to the Arizona Cardinals with barely more than 15 minutes to play. Their defense came through when Arizona's offensive panties got all uncomfortable, and Devin Hester is the new Dante Hall, but that was still far, far away from being a great performance.

Impact of the Bye — With Mike Brown injured on Monday night, an extra week to regroup won't hurt. I'm sure it'll kill Rex Grossman to have to think about his performance for an extra week, but he deserves it after killing me in fantasy. With a close call fresh on their minds, this is good time for head coach Lovie Smith and the coaching staff to get back to some fundamentals on offense.

Outlook — If only one thing goes right for Arizona in the fourth quarter, the Bears are 5-1 instead of 6-0. Either way, they would still have a commanding lead in the division, and a near lock on a one- or two-seed in the playoffs. With home games against San Francisco and Miami after the bye, they'll most likely be 8-0 heading into their Week 10 visit to New York to face the Giants. I'm guessing they won't be 9-0. Still, they should finish no worse than 13-3, with a matchup against Carolina for the NFC crown at Soldier Field. Now that would be a great playoff game.

Tennessee Titans

(1-5, 0-1 AFC South, last place)

Overview — I'm still not sure what happened with the whole Billy Volek thing, but with two consecutive solid performances by VY and the defense, this is shaping up to be a giant killer come November and December. I'll tell you this — I'm not betting against the Titans in my survivor league.

Impact of the Bye — Either this is a great time for a bye because they just won their first game and this gives Young a chance to catch his breath and feel good for a week, or this is a horrible time for a bye because the last thing you want to do as a 1-5 team coming off a big win is break momentum. With a home game against Houston in Week 8, they should be able to get win No. 2 before a brutal stretch of @JAX, BAL, @Phi, NYG, IND. I guess it's a good thing they get to enjoy this one for a while.

Outlook — With home games remaining against the Ravens, Colts, Giants, Jaguars, and Patriots, chances are the Titans have another upset or two on the horizon. It's not like they're going to make the playoffs, but Vince Young is getting great experience. I can see them making serious noise in the division by 2008.

St. Louis Rams

(4-2, 1-2 NFC West, second place)

Overview — The Seahawks loss proved this isn't yet a top-caliber team. The offense is far more balanced than in years past, with Steven Jackson second in the league in rushing and Marc Bulger second in passing yardage. But the defense is still very susceptible to the big play, and ranks in the bottom half of the league in nearly every defensive category. The 1-2 mark through their first run through the division isn't terribly impressive, either.

Impact of the Bye — With a road trip to San Diego on tap in Week 8, they are going to need all the time they can get to heal up on the offensive line. They also have road trips to Seattle and Carolina coming up in the next few weeks, so I'm sure the coaching staff is happy to have a little extra time for advance scouting.

Outlook — I know everybody is all excited and all, but this is a mediocre team. I don't see them being able to beat the Chargers, Seahawks, or Panthers on the road, which means the best they'll be after Week 11 is 5-5 (and that's assuming they beat KC, which should have Trent Green back by then). Best case is a 9-7 record and first-round playoff booting by one of the legit NFC teams.

New Orleans Saints

(5-1, 2-1 NFC South, first place)

Overview — The run-away winner for the feel-good story of the year award, the Saints have now beaten Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia, three teams expected to make noise in the NFC this year. The Superdome looks to have a special magic to it this year, as though the tragedy of Katrina somehow transformed it from the craphole it always was to almost a Coliseum-type of place (the one in Rome, not Oakland). There's just something different about it.

Impact of the Bye — Coming off back-to-back home wins, and playing at home in Week 8, the Saints will have managed to go nearly a month without having to leave Louisiana. This bye falls into the perfect spot in their schedule, allowing early coach-of-the-year favorite Sean Payton time to reload for the rest of the season.

Outlook — It's entirely conceivable they could go 8-0 at home this year. And if they manage to get themselves a home playoff game, man ... that would just be awesome. I've never been a big Saints fan (and really, why would you be if you weren't from there?), but I love that town (even got engaged there). Just one question: if the Saints win the Super Bowl, does Charles Casserly get a ring?

San Francisco 49ers

(2-4, 1-1 NFC West, third place)

Overview — This just isn't a very good team. Alex Smith is in the middle of year two, and he's showing some signs of life, but not enough for a No. 1 pick. I didn't like the Vernon Davis pick in April, and I still don't like it. (It's like putting vinyl siding on a trailer. Sure, it looks nice, but it's still a trailer.) They would have been much better served taking Haloti Ngata or Michael Huff. As it is, they are allowing a horrendous 51 percent conversion rate on third downs, and are giving up a league-worse average of 32 points per game.

Impact of the Bye — I'm not sure it really matters at this point. They play at Chicago in Week 8 and are going to lose. They could have a month off before that game, and they would still lose.

Outlook — While the Saints may go 8-0 at home, the 49ers may very well go 0-8 on the road. In Mike Nolan's second season, progress has not been made. His team still stinks on defense (his supposed area of expertise), and, if Kevan Barlow is to be believed, Nolan's tyrannical personality isn't exactly inspiring the locker room. Here's betting Nolan is back to being a defensive coordinator someplace else in 2008.

Baltimore Ravens

(4-2, 1-0 AFC North, first place)

Overview — For a 4-2 team, there sure is a lot of consternation coming out of Baltimore these days. The offense has scored 16, 16, 3, and 21 points in the last four weeks, with Steve McNair looking worse and worse every game until finally getting hurt against Carolina. (Steve McNair hurt? Never saw that one coming, did you?) The pass defense just fell apart against Jake Delhomme, allowing an insane 365 yards through the air (of the total 423 yards given up).

Impact of the Bye — Early word is that McNair should be fine after the bye, and that's good news for everybody but Kyle Boller, who played well in relief. With a road trip to New Orleans after the week off, they better figure something out beyond just firing Jim Fassel.

Outlook — How often does a first-place team fire its offensive coordinator after six games? I'm not sure, but it doesn't portend great things for the future of the Ravens and Brian Billick. Right now, anybody in the AFC North can beat anybody else and it wouldn't be surprising. What once looked like a two or three playoff team division now looks like it may just eat itself up, with only the surviving winner making the show. The Ravens still have the inside edge, but not by much.

Playlist of the Week

(Available on iTunes)

1. Get Up – James Brown
2. Alive – Pearl Jam
3. About Her – Malcolm Mclaren (Kill Bill, Vol. II Soundtrack)
4. X&Y – Coldplay
5. Award Tour – A Tribe Called Quest
6. Beautiful – Pharrell, Snoop Dogg & Uncle Charlie Wilson
7. Fall Line – Jack Johnson
8. Heroin – Lou Reed
9. Killing in the Name – Rage Against the Machine
10. Walk – Pantera

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 5:50 PM | Comments (1)

Big Blue Reborn

As the calendar moves closer toward the month of November, college football is gearing up for a frantic sprint to the finish. One of the most anticipated games of that month will be the November 18th showdown between bitter rivals, Ohio State and Michigan.

At this time, both schools are undefeated and appear to be picking up steam and momentum. Ohio State went down to Texas and defeated the Longhorns 24-7 early in the season and has since passed every "test" that has been placed in front of them. Michigan used a 47-21 demolition of Notre Dame as its "coming-out" party. After a 2005 season which saw Michigan lose to Ohio State and Nebraska to end the season, the Notre Dame victory was surely needed to keep Michigan in the nation's eye for the right reasons.

That team was slowed by injuries on both sides of the ball as RB Michael Hart and DE Rondell Biggs missed significant time. While the loss of Hart allowed for the development of other offensive playmakers such as sophomore RB Kevin Grady and sophomore WR Mario Manningham, the loss of Biggs placed more pressure on the defense which looked worn down by season's end.

Both players have returned this season and Michigan is reaping the benefits. Hart has returned and run for 906 rushing yards, while adding six touchdowns. This has opened up passing lanes which has permitted Manningham, currently slowed by a knee injury, to catch 24 passes for 527 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Grady is also making a contribution with 164 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Despite improvements made by the offense, the defense has really come to play and it has made a difference. In Michigan's last game against Penn State, a 17-10 victory, the defense had seven sacks, while injuring Penn State's top two quarterbacks. The aforementioned Biggs contributed two sacks while fellow DE Lamar Woodley contributed 2.5 sacks. The defense is continuing its trend of not allowing more than 20 points, as only one team has scored that (Notre Dame) and even that game was a decisive victory for the Wolverines.

With four more games until the showdown with the Buckeyes, the Wolverines must stay focused on their goal. They have a really tough game against Iowa this weekend, but even that is a home game for Michigan. If both teams win out, then once again this season will see a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup (sorry, USC). In the latest version of this matchup, it went to the No. 1 team (Ohio State over Texas).

Being a Michigan fan, it has hurt me to see the program not consistently be on the national stage in the past few years, but this year seems to be different. This team seems to have all the playmakers it needs on both sides of the ball. But as every Michigan fan, alum, etc. knows, the season doesn't matter unless you defeat the hated Buckeyes.

With key players returning from injuries and younger players continuing their development, the Wolverines are putting themselves in prime position to make their annual rivalry with Ohio State matter on the national stage and with the winner probably earning a spot in the BCS title. Here's my vote for Big Blue to continue their rebirth.

Posted by Alfons Prince at 5:04 PM | Comments (0)

October 18, 2006

College Football Predictions: Week 8

This college football season really has been a roller coaster ride for me, and my near .500 Sports Central record refelcts my near .500 personal betting record thus far for college. There is nothing wrong with breaking even, but I'd like to think profit is on the horizon.

YTD Record

1* = 4-4-1
2* = 5-5
3* = 5-3

As a reminder, the ranking system is as follows:

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

Wisconsin @ Purdue +6.5, 12:00 PM, ESPN

I'd be willing to put down a 10* play that 90% of you jumped out of your seats when you saw Wisconsin laying "only" 6.5 points to Purdue this week. This is the type of line that empties most bettors accounts before November rolls around.

By no means am I in love with anything Purdue has done so far this season, but I am certainly not impressed enough with Wisconsin's recent victories over mighty Northwestern and Minnesota to justify playing road Big 10 chalk in this spot. Purdue is more than capable of moving the ball against Wisconsin, and they could easily win this game outright.

The play: Purdue 3*

Texas @ Nebraska +7, 12:00 PM, ABC

This is yet another spot where the road chalk is going to look mighty tasty to the average, long-term losing sports bettor. I actually had this game circled at the beginning of the season as a big one (ala my Michigan over ND call), but have soured on it a bit based on the manner in which the two sides enter this game.

This is could be the first of two meetings between these two sides as there is a good chance they'll reunite in the Big 12 title game. Looking at each teams resume it is hard to fathom why Texas is a seven-point favorite on the road here. I actually think Nebraska has been a bit more impressive to this point, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday morning.

The play: Nebraska 3*

UCLA +13.5 @ Notre Dame, 2:30 PM, NBC

I am so sick of hearing about how "hard" Notre Dame's schedule is every year. The only quality victory they have thus far in the Charlie Weis era was their road victory over Georgia Tech to open this season. When they actually do play someone good, they lose. I'll even go out on a limb right now and predict how the rest of their season will unfold. They'll win the rest of their games leading up to their game at USC, lose by double digits in L.A., somehow still sneak into a BCS bowl thanks to the Notre Dame brand name, and then will procede to lose by double digits in that game regardless of venue or opponent.

As for this one, I am in no hurry to back UCLA, but there is never value on Notre Dame's side. I'd rather place a bet on the scenario outlined above.

The play: UCLA 1*

Iowa +14 @ Michigan, 3:30 PM, ABC

Last time Iowa traveled to Ann Arbor they got handled easily, and I am not certain this variation of the Hawkeyes is any better than the '04 version. Ultimately, though, the 2004 result has no bearing on this year's game.

Michigan enters this contest as hot as any team in the country while Iowa comes in off their worst loss in four seasons. To most simple-minded folk, this would seem like the perfect spot to bet on Michigan which of course makes this a good situation to take the Hawkeyes. I just think Iowa has enough on each side of the ball to keep Michigan close much in the same manner as Wisconsin did earlier in the season.

The play: Iowa 2*

Georgia Tech @ Clemson -7.5, 7:45 PM, ESPN

The last time I wrote about Georgia Tech, I spoke of how "they were getting too many points" on the road against Virginia Tech. They turned around and walloped the Hokies, winning the game outright. As stupid as I looked on that call, the situation here is very similar with the caveat being that Clemson actually has a pretty good football team, whereas Virginia Tech does not.

I hate betting on favorites, especially at a number as ugly as -7.5. However, in my experience, whenever the average bettor favores an underdog (it's rare), then it is wise to either stay away or try a play on the favorite.

The play: Clemson 2*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.

Posted by Ryan Hojnacki at 9:04 PM | Comments (3)

The House That Havlat ... Might Build

It's early in the season, but that's okay if you're the Chicago Blackhawks and were hoping your offseason transactions would yield immediate dividends. Just five games into the season, the Blackhawks are sitting in second place in the Central Division.

With three wins and two losses thus far, the team is certainly not starting out as hot as its star winger, Martin Havlat. Havlat, who came to Chicago from the Ottawa Senators, has blazed through his first five games, tallying 12 points — sitting atop the league in points and second in goals (six) behind the Buffalo Sabres' Chris Drury and the New York Rangers' Brendan Shanahan.

Havlat, who turned 25 last April, exemplifies the quick and finesse style of play that the NHL had hoped to facilitate and celebrate when it altered the rules prior to last season. However, Havlat didn't have much of a chance to shine last year — he missed 58 games to a shoulder injury, along with five more from a suspension. But when he did play, he produced, scoring nine goals and 16 points in a shortened season that saw the Sens ousted by the Buffalo Sabres in the second-round of the 2005-2006 playoffs.

This is the year Havlat needs to prove to the Blackhawks and the rest of the NHL that he can deliver league-leading points consistently, under pressure, and is worth the three-year, $18 million contract he inked in July. The Czech native, a restricted free-agent, had initially hoped to sign a one-year deal with Ottawa so he could test the free-agent market next summer.

Unwilling to accept that as a reasonable request, Ottawa shipped Havlat to Chicago in a three-way deal that included the San Jose Sharks. San Jose traded defensemen Tom Preissing and Josh Hennessy to Chicago for Mark Bell, culminating with the Blackhawks moving Preissing and Hennessy, defenseman Michal Barinka, and a 2008 second-round draft pick to the Senators in exchange for Havlat and forward Bryan Smolinski.

Even though Havlat missed almost three-quarters of last season, the Senators' proclivity for ceaseless scoring from stars Dany Heatley and captain Daniel Alfredsson, and up-and-comers Jason Spezza and Patrick Eaves, hardly diminished during last year's campaign — it is doubtful the Sens will suffer severely from Havlat's departure. (Even though they're currently below .500 in the Northeast Division.) Chicago, conversely, will certainly reap the benefits from a player who has a penchant for highlight reel goals. Acquiring a pure offensive talent like Havlat will deepen the Blackhawks' shallow scoring pool.

The Blackhawks have only reached the postseason once in the last eight seasons, losing in the conference quarterfinals in 2002. Havlat will be a vital component in breaking that streak, and he's already proven he can put points on the board when it counts. (His 13 points in 10 playoff games last year, and 23 career game-winning goals are evidence of that.)

Since his rookie year in 2000-2001, Havlat's scoring has increased steadily with each season — with the exception of last year, of course. It is unlikely he'll continue the offensive pace he's kept so early in this season, but if he can stay healthy, Havlat's production will surely evade heavy scrutiny. Regardless of his offensive consistency, the real wager rests on Havlat's explosive temper. Not one to think about his actions prior to committing them, Havlat has routinely been penalized for retaliating and has a steep history of suspensions.

He was criticized in the 2003 playoffs by Philadelphia Flyers coach Ken Hitchcock for his stick-work. In an incident later the next season, Hitchcock said that "somebody is going to make him eat his lunch" — clearly displaying the frustration that Havlat can create even when he doesn't have the puck. During the 2003-2004 season, he was suspended twice, once for kicking and once for high-sticking the Flyers' Mark Recchi. Havlat was then suspended again on October 17, 2005 for five games after another kicking incident involving Boston Bruins defenseman Hal Gill.

If Havlat doesn't avoid overreacting, taking cheap shots, and retaliatory penalties, he's going to have a tough time finding a team who will offer the money he wants when his deal with Chicago expires. Failing to calm down during the interim can simplify his opponents' game plan — antagonize Havlat until he takes a stupid penalty. But after only five games, Havlat has just six penalty minutes (compared to 30, that of NHL penalty-in-minutes leader Matthew Barnaby) — not too bad for a player averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. It's probably safe to assume that Chicago GM Dale Tallon addressed those concerns when negotiating for Havlat.

Still, another factor that may play a role in Havlat's success in his new home is how he handles being Chicago's go-to guy. In Ottawa, there was such abundant offensive talent that no one player had to provide the bulk of the scoring. Even the Sens' defense had offensive power in since-traded-to-Boston Zdeno Chara and the contract-extended Wade Redden. The same is not so in the Windy City, where big names are as scarce as the Blackhawks' recent post-season appearances.

Yet, if he can curtail his volatility and injury woes, the only hindrance that could prevent Havlat from having a career year will be the Blackhawks' lack of depth, which was not ameliorated when they dealt their leading scorer from last season, Kyle Calder, to the Philadelphia Flyers. (Calder had 59 points in '05-'06 versus Michael Handzus's 44, who came over from Philly.) Their other top scorers are Handzus and Radim Vrbata, both Havlat's linemates. If the rest of the team struggles to produce, coach Trent Yawney may have to dilute that line to balance out the scoring, a move that could backfire if Havlat proves to be the only reason Handzus and Vrbata are scoring in the first place.

In the end, Havlat has all the requisites to be Chi-town's finest: the speed, the scoring touch, a keen awareness of his teammates on the rink, and respect in his locker room. How Havlat operates with such a burden remains to be seen. And at this point, no one can know if relying on Havlat alone will translate into a playoff birth. But if he plays like he has throughout the next 77 games, Havlat might get a first-round match up at the United Center as a birthday gift next April.

Posted by Jeff DiNunzio at 8:55 PM | Comments (0)

So Much For That Extra Day's Rest

Albert Pujols may have been favoring his troubled hamstring, but he barely had to drive off the leg in question in the bottom of the fourth, when he lined Tom Glavine's one-out service just past the top of the left field fence and onto what looked like a slim strip of grass between the fence-top and the stands.

All that liner did was pull the St. Louis Cardinals to within a run of the New York Mets in Busch Stadium Tuesday night. A few other Cardinal bats pulled them even and ahead, enough Cardinal arms kept the Mets from overthrowing the Cardinals' reclaimed lead, and the National League Championship Series is going back to New York with the Mets a game away from wait 'till next year.

That's what can happen when Glavine can't keep too many of his pitches from sailing up just enough to meet St. Louis lumber on the wrong side on a night Jeff Weaver can keep most of his pitches away and beneath the wrong side of New York's.

And it turned out that the extra day's rest the Monday rain-out afforded may have wounded the Mets' lineup, dissolving just enough of their Sunday blowout momentum, more than it did anything for the two Game 5 starting pitchers.

Neither pitcher was terribly overwhelming, and truth to tell, both looked just a little less than they'd looked in a jewel of a first-game pitching duel. But Weaver found his breaking pitches operating efficiently enough as the night went on, swapping three shutout innings with Glavine, while Glavine found his trademark change-ups losing their late descent by the time the fourth arrived.

That's the last thing the Mets expected after Shawn Green bounced one right off the right field chalk to set up second and third for Jose Valentin to line one over Pujols's leaping head to give the Mets the early 2-0 lead.

But if you didn't count Prince Albert's almost excuse-me line homer cutting that lead in half, the Cardinals didn't exactly have to think about muscling up at the plate. They could let Glavine's faltering pitches just about do the work for them so long as they could keep their bat heads on line and calibrated.

Juan Encarnacion may have obliged Glavine after the Pujols homer by flying out to left, but the redoubtable lefthander walked Scott Rolen and surrendered a clean enough single to Jim Edmonds before Ron Belliard bounced the game-tying RBI single the other way to right, the ball eluding first baseman Carlos Delgado when he had to compensate for breaking at first toward the pad.

David Eckstein — himself shaking off a left shoulder crunch on a diving stop of Paul Lo Duca's first-inning smash, off which he tossed out Jose Reyes (a game-opening infield hit) — sent a shuttlecock to short left center to open the fifth and gunned every one of his afterburners to score the tiebreaker on Preston Wilson's followup single. Glavine hung around to put Pujols on intentionally before yielding to the Mets bullpen.

Except for Chris Duncan (all .143 postseason hitting worth of him) and his pinch hit solo bomb off usually solid lefthander Pedro Feliciano in the bottom of the sixth, the Met 'pen performed in the manner to which the National League became accustomed this season. Chad Bradford, the lamppost-bending submariner, spelled Glavine, surrendered a bases-loading single to Encarnacion, and then tied Scott Rolen up in a nasty strikeout, before Feliciano came in, got Edmonds to force Wilson at the plate, and got Belliard to sky one to left for the side.

And Guillermo Mota, lifting a leaf from the book he'd learned in the Dodgers' organization, thwarted a one-out squeeze attempt magnificently in the bottom of the eighth. Made possible by a triple into the right field corner by Aaron Miles, inserted for Belliard at second in a double switch in the top of the inning, the squeeze was wrecked when Mota threw one inside and tight, ricocheting foul off Eckstein's bat for a second strike. (It almost wrecked Eckstein's night, too, since the ball hit wood and fingers simultaneously, Eckstein needing a few moments to shake it off before resuming.) The Cardinals' resident pest then popped out softly to second before Wilson grounded out cleanly to short for the side.

It was the second straight inning in which the Cardinals stranded three ducks on the pond, but their bullpen did just a little bit better keeping the Mets short the rest of the way, looking nothing like the bulls the Mets had pounded into Sunday night steaks.

Josh Kinney dispatched the side in order in the seventh, but after Carlos Delgado (a one-out single) and David Wright (a followup double off the fence in left) made it second and third early in the eighth, Green missed an RBI single when Edmonds, who'd misjudged the shuttlecock at first, hustled in to take it and hold the runners, before interim closer Adam Wainwright dropped a questionable enough third strike (the replay showed the otherwise nasty breaking ball crossing the plate just astride the outer edge of the black) on Valentin for the side.

Wainwright pitched just as tightly in the ninth, getting two grounders and a swishout (throwing an even nastier breaking ball just past the descending head of Reyes's bat) for the game.

Pujols sounded almost conciliatory toward Glavine, whom he was thought to have dissed as "not very good" after Glavine's NLCS-opening shutout innings that included keeping him 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout. "He doesn't give in too much," the first baseman said after the game. "I'm just glad it went out of the park."

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 8:32 PM | Comments (0)

October 17, 2006

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Jared Allen ran down Najeh Davenport on Sunday. Davenport is no Willie Parker, but Allen is still one fast defensive end.

* I don't understand how the Oakland Athletics fired Ken Macha after he led their cash-strapped team to the ALCS. When did George Steinbrenner become a model of restraint?

* Phillip Buchanon, we hardly knew ye. The once-promising DB was cut by the Texans on Monday. Oakland and Houston: where potential goes to die.

* Say what you will about Eli Manning, he's never boring. Little Manning has a combined 18 TDs and INTs in just five games, the highest combined total in the NFL.

* Tony Romo has the highest passer rating in the NFL. Charlie Batch is second. Kyle Boller and Brian Griese are also in the top 10. All of this is meaningless.

***

Monday Night Football is a terrible program put together by people who hate sports fans, and one of its most annoying features this season has been the presence of a celebrity (or unfamous Disney employee, like James Denton) in the broadcast booth. While the interview seldom interferes with live action, it does replace all replays and any attempt at analysis, as in Week 5 when the Denton (who?) interview prevented viewers from learning why the Ravens took a timeout and Brian Billick was upset at the officials.

This week, the guest was Charles Barkley, who can be a pretty interesting guy. In fact, I think Barkley should replace Tony Kornheiser in the booth. Kornheiser has been a train wreck as an announcer. Actually, forget train wreck. He's the Titanic. Kornheiser almost makes me miss Dennis Miller. He's unfunny, he knows absolutely nothing about football, he's mean (why is everybody mean to Joe Theismann?), and he's a pretender who talks like a know-it-all, getting fed stats — and sometimes lines (anything about NFL history, he is reading from someone else's research) — and then managing to sound holier-than-thou in pronouncing them. Also, he's clearly lying about who's on his fantasy team. Nobody — not even Kornheiser — is so bad at fantasy football that he has to start Rashied Davis.

It's a shame that Chicago's incredible comeback and Matt Leinart's national television debut in the NFL were soured by the taint of MNF's miserable booth. Let's get to the power rankings. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. Chicago Bears [1] — That no-offense fourth-quarter comeback was unprecedented, and speaks to both the talent and attitude of the defense. Brian Urlacher was quiet for three quarters, but he came up big when the game was on the line. I would have kept them first even if they'd lost, but the Chicago offense looked terrible on Monday night, and the defense will miss Mike Brown if his injury is serious.

2. Indianapolis Colts [2] — Everyone between second and 18th is pretty close. The Colts are clearly struggling in a number of areas right now, especially on defense. The Colts are last in rush defense, last in average yards per rush allowed, and near the bottom of the league in sacks. Where the team has excelled this year is passing offense, especially in the clutch. The team has converted almost 60% of its third downs, easily first in the league.

3. San Diego Chargers [5] — A lot of similarities to the Bears. San Diego's margin of victory is second only to Chicago's, and other than the Bears, the Chargers appears to be the only elite team (other than maybe the Eagles) with a good balance between offense and defense. Philip Rivers, like Rex Grossman, is a young, unproven quarterback who has made plays to help his team win. Of course, if Grossman continues to play like he did against Arizona, I won't insult Rivers and his teammates on offense with any more Chicago comparisons.

4. Denver Broncos [6] — The passing offense ranks 31st. The scoring offense is tied for 30th. The Broncos are tied with Oakland for fewest touchdowns this season. The defense is amazing, with only one TD allowed through five games, but a team that can't pass the ball won't be able to win consistently, no matter how good the defense is.

5. Seattle Seahawks [8] — It would be hard to overemphasize the significance of their comeback win at St. Louis, and Josh Brown deserves a ton of credit for making a 54-yard field goal to win the game. The negatives were pass protection (the Seahawks have lost 141 yards on sacks, worst in the NFC) and pass defense (no one can cover Torry Holt). On a positive note, Matt Hasselbeck had his first really good game of the 2006 season.

6. New Orleans Saints [14] — Drew Brees is in the NFL's top 10 in passer rating, passing yards, and passing TDs. The Chargers seem to be fine with Rivers, but the Saints are clearly benefiting from the addition of Brees. New Orleans is playing well in the clutch, with four of its five victories coming by a touchdown or less.

7. Philadelphia Eagles [4] — Against New Orleans, the Eagles couldn't get to Brees (zero sacks) and couldn't get off the field (50% third down conversions allowed). On offense, Donovan McNabb was inconsistent despite putting up some pretty good numbers. The Eagles need to play better in the first half, when McNabb's passer rating is 40 points lower than in the second half.

8. New York Giants [10] — Ran the ball down Atlanta's throat. The Giants had 15 rushing first downs, with Tiki Barber running for 185 yards and a 7.1 average. The defense posted its second big game in a row, sacking Michael Vick seven times and forcing two turnovers. An extremely impressive road victory for this inconsistent team.

9. New England Patriots [9] — Travel to Buffalo next week, with a chance to become the first team to get to 4-0 in its division this year. The Patriots released DT Johnathan Sullivan, the sixth overall pick from the 2003 draft. Sullivan had a good rookie campaign with the Saints, but never developed the way scouts hoped he would.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers [12] — Facing the NFL's fourth-ranked defense, they exploded for 457 yards, including over 200 on the ground, and scored more points (45) than in their previous three games combined (33). The defense was dominant, too, holding the Chiefs to one TD (scored when it was already 31-0) and totally containing their stars.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars [11] — The bye prevented them from building on the momentum of last week's 41-0 pounding of the Jets, but in Week 7 the Jaguars travel to Houston, which should create plenty of new momentum.

12. Carolina Panthers [18] — Fourth win in a row. Julius Peppers is tearing offenses apart, and could challenge the NFL's single-season sack record if he stays healthy. Keep an eye on Mike Rucker, too, since he stands to benefit from double- and triple-teams on Peppers. Kris Jenkins may not have had much direct statistical impact yet, but his presence on the field makes things easier for everyone else on that defense.

13. Baltimore Ravens [7] — Mark Clayton had a big game, but Derrick Mason was held without a catch for the first time since 2002. Against Carolina, Ravens wideouts had only six receptions. Baltimore was effective defending the run, and forced three turnovers, but couldn't stop Steve Smith, who piled up 189 receiving yards. That's an embarrassment for a team that prides itself on defense.

14. Cincinnati Bengals [3] — Marvin Lewis just can't beat Jon Gruden. In 2002, he was passed over for Tampa's head coaching job, despite the recommendation of Bucs GM Rich McKay, and the job was eventually given to Gruden. On Sunday, Lewis watched as referee Peter Morelli and his crew gave the game to Gruden's Bucs. The injury to left tackle Levi Jones is just one more problem for a team that is suddenly reeling.

15. Dallas Cowboys [16] — Dominated the second half to the tune of 31-0, chasing David Carr out of the game. It's hard to find much room for criticism, but Houston's defense is so bad it let Mark Brunell set the NFL single-game record for consecutive completions, so don't read too much into the Cowboys' offensive performance in Week 6. Also, the defense didn't get a single sack against Houston, which is worrisome even against a team that's max-protecting.

16. Minnesota Vikings [15] — In Week 4, they lost to Buffalo. In Week 5, they beat Detroit. In Week 6, Buffalo lost to Detroit. If you think about this too long, you will slowly lose your mind.

17. Atlanta Falcons [13] — Maybe Vick can play running back, and Matt Schaub can throw the passes. I know his subpar receiving corps is part of the problem, but so far this season, Vick has been terrible in every respect except his running. His passer rating is down to 66.0, and he's getting sacked 3.6 times per game, more than anyone but Daunte Culpepper.

18. St. Louis Rams [19] — The Rams have a bye week to collect themselves before the toughest four-week stretch of their schedule. After Week 7, St. Louis has three of the next four on the road, all against winning teams, plus a potentially tough home matchup against Kansas City. If the Rams still have a winning record at the end of that stretch, they're legitimate playoff contenders. If not, they just had an easy schedule early in the season.

19. Kansas City Chiefs [17] — Tied for last in rushing first downs. In 2005, they were fourth, with an average of better than 8.5 per game. This year, they're averaging less than half that number. So it's no wonder that the team has scored 10 points or less in three of its five games. Punter Dustin Colquitt was probably KC's best player against the Steelers.

20. New York Jets [20] — Outplayed by the Dolphins, but they won on four plays: interceptions by Andre Dyson and Victor Hobson, a 58-yard touchdown reception by Laveranues Coles, and Hobson's recovery of a fumble by Sammy Morris. Other than those four plays, the Jets' offense was okay but not great, and the defense was poor.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [24] — Vince Young and Matt Leinart have both been impressive as their teams' starters, and both look like they have the potential to be big-time stars in the NFL, but so far this season, no rookie QB has been better than Tampa's Bruce Gradkowski. Besides leading a game-winning drive at the end of Sunday's contest against Cincinnati, Gradkowski has thrown for four TDs with only one interception, better than the marks of Leinart (4-2) or Young (3-4).

22. Buffalo Bills [21] — After a promising start, they've fallen apart in the last two weeks, getting blown out by Chicago and losing to the previously winless Lions. Injuries — most notably that of DT John McCargo — have really hurt a defense that expected to be among the league's best.

23. Arizona Cardinals [26] — Lead the NFL in penalties, and it's killing them. If the Cardinals think they should be 4-2, a good way to hold onto wins is not to give them away. I've moved them up because the defense played with heart and Leinart looks great, but what has happened to Neil Rackers, who was a consensus all-pro last year?

24. Washington Redskins [22] — Daniel Snyder needs to fire the pedophile who decided that the 6-to-9-year-old cheerleaders in the pregame entertainment should wear short skirts and dance to sexually suggestive songs like "London Bridge" and "My Humps." Easily the most disturbing thing I saw this weekend, and that includes Washington's rush defense.

25. Green Bay Packers [25] — This hasn't just been a rough season for Brett Favre. His former backups are struggling, too. Brunell is almost single-handedly handcuffing Washington's expensive offense. Aaron Brooks was a disaster for the Raiders. Kurt Warner was benched in Arizona. Hasselbeck leads the pack, but he's having his worst season since 2001, his first as Seattle's starter.

26. Miami Dolphins [23] — They've played six games and haven't scored 20 points in any of them, but there are bright spots here. Ronnie Brown had a big game against the Jets, running for 127 yards and averaging almost six yards per attempt. Randy McMichael led the team in receiving for the second consecutive week, and normally that's bad — when a tight end is your leading receiver, that usually means the wideouts aren't playing well — but McMichael's production has really picked up since Joey Harrington took over at QB.

27. Tennessee Titans [31] — Vince Young looks like he can be a leader at the NFL level, but the real story coming out of Tennessee should be Travis Henry, who has posted consecutive 100-yard games and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Henry had a couple of very good seasons with the Bills, but he's been an afterthought for the last two years, and now is playing like an elite back again.

28. Detroit Lions [29] — Not only is Roy Williams a better receiver than Charles Rogers, he's classier, too. After scoring a touchdown on Sunday, Williams jumped to the stands and gave the ball to a boy wearing his jersey, ruffling the kid's hair and delighting his young sister who was also in attendance. Detroit should probably be ranked higher than this, and not just because Williams is nice to kids.

29. Cleveland Browns [27] — First-round draft pick Kamerion Wimbley leads the team with three sacks. This is a young team that obviously isn't ready to contend this year, but has a lot of promising players who should help the Browns in the future.

30. San Francisco 49ers [28] — Blown out for the second time in three games. The 49ers have already allowed 198 points this season, putting them on pace for 528, which would be the second-worst in NFL history, trailing only the 1981 Colts.

31. Houston Texans [30] — Lost their 10th straight road game. The Texans are last in the NFL in rushing yards, averaging only 3.0 per carry, and David Carr has the team's only rushing TD this season. Carr led Houston in rushing on Sunday, with 15 yards.

32. Oakland Raiders [32] — The offense is an embarrassment. It's tough to evaluate the defense, since opponents usually get a big lead early and then tighten things up, but in competitive games against beatable opponents (Cleveland and San Francisco), the Raider defense was not especially impressive. Now the only winless team in the NFL, Oakland is an easy choice for last in the rankings.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 8:18 PM | Comments (2)

The Beauty of the Bandwagon Fan

As a Notre Dame fan, I spent the bye week reflecting on the season and came to one solid conclusion — a bandwagon fan is a beautiful thing. While I'm sure that appeals to Oakland A's fans right about now, the prospect of front-running seemed appealing to me during the weekend of the Michigan game a few weeks back.

The complete and utter annihilation of my Fighting Irish by Michigan left me stunned and briefly incapacitated. After months of anticipation for our inevitable national championship run, the dream was dead before the official start of fall. With all the talk of Ohio State, the BCS rankings and the Heisman race these days, all I can think of is how our season fell apart in one game.

Still, teams lose every weekend and fans are constantly subjected to an unfair amount of disappointment and heartbreak. I speak to those fans now by saying, there's a way out. You could become a bandwagon fan.

Looking back on the game that ended Notre Dame's national title hopes, things would've been much easier if I could've worn a Michigan shirt underneath my Notre Dame garb. It would've been an enjoyable game if I could've merely claimed that the gold with my blue was actually maize. I could walk in to the sports bar whistling the "Victory March" and leave humming "Hail to the Victors." I could've easily hid my fan identity and avoided the barbs of innumerable Notre Dame haters armed with salt to throw on the gaping wounds left by the Wolverines. I might have spent the week after mocking Brady Quinn's choke job from the comfort of my seat on the "Troy Smith for Heisman" bus.

Most fans regard bandwagon fans with all the affection of a member of al-Qaeda. Bandwagon fan is a label most program supporters will fight unnecessarily vociferously as if every shred of their honor depended on their fan legitimacy. It's a term used as a slur by many in the sports world and it has even led to physical confrontations, which are usually entertaining to watch as they are essentially street brawls with fandom as the ultimate prize. In reality, it's simple to understand why the regular fan regards the frontrunners with contempt — they are insanely jealous.

Regular fans can go years between bowl wins (I was in middle school when Notre Dame won their last bowl game) and decades between championships. Chicago Cubs fans will probably never see their team in a World Series and Cleveland Browns fans may never see their team have another winning season. For most sports fans, whatever shred of joy they garner from a successful season is washed away by the fountains of near-misses and outright failures. For the bandwagon fan, however, a delicious serving of victory is served for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. For them, championship rings might as well come out of vending machines, while the only rings regular fans find are in boxes of Captain Crunch.

There is no heartbreak for the bandwagon fan. There are no close losses, no Bill Buckners, and no missed field goals. There is only constant victory. They aren't stuck rooting for whatever team their fathers raised them to root for. They aren't confined to certain geographical fan boundaries. Bandwagon fans refuse to be stuck with whatever the status quo, they choose their own fate. They bathe in celebratory champagne and towel off with championship t-shirts. Their magazine subscriptions consists solely of commemorative editions and their DVD collections are recaps of (recently) past glory. They know victory on a level that only Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, and the Harlem Globetrotters can relate to.

Bandwagon fans are even crucial to the success of nearly every athletic team. If an abundance of fans didn't latch on to the team du jour, then fan bases would rarely grow. When times are good, the bandwagon fan will show up, buy his concessions, enjoy the game, and then leave wearing No. 1 foam fingers on each hand (making for an interesting drive home). The cash influx of bandwagon fans is valued by every team and goes a long way in signing that free agent or building that new training facility.

For those who still can't comprehend the beauty of the bandwagon fan, step outside the sports world for a moment. Look at HBO's Entourage. The show is about the people who grew up next door to the movie star and are now part of his entourage. They get to live a freeloading life of luxury where their biggest concern is what to wear to a party at the Playboy Mansion. If given the choice, wouldn't you choose to join an entourage like that? Or would the loyalty to your neighbor, who grows up to be a baker, be more important? Basically, would you rather party with voluptuous, lingerie-clad models or enjoy the occasional free donut?

There is the theory that defeat and disappointment only serve to make future successes that much sweeter. But that's assuming that there is a light at the end of the tunnel and for some teams (again, the Cubs and Browns come to mind) that simply isn't a reality. The sad thing is that those fans didn't do anything wrong. They were simply born in the wrong city or grandfathered into the team by a relative. Is it fair that they will never feel the exhilaration of rooting for a champion? They have little effect on changing their team's fortunes, they are stuck. Bandwagon fans, however, can choose to be a champion. Sure, hardship now may possibly turn into a championship experience down the road, but a fan experience that is completely devoid of the agony of defeat is probably pretty sweet.

I had a chance to make that turn into a bandwagon fan. Hours after Notre Dame played the role of delicious cake to Michigan's fat kid, I went out to run some errands and pick up some food. I briefly contemplated donning the shirt of an unnamed SEC team (which I only own because it was on sale for less than $6), so I wouldn't have to hear about Notre Dame's debacle from everyone. I could've turned into an OSU fan and have had my national title and Heisman hopes alive today.

In the end, though, I stayed true and sported my Irish shirt around town. I felt obligated to wear it, almost like I deserved to have anonymous people mock me as if I lost the game myself. I didn't have the stomach to make the turn, so I spent the rest of the night fielding questions like "Why did Charlie Weis play Brady Quinn's sister at quarterback?" and "How come Notre Dame sucks so much?" Weeks later, I still get barbs from Big 10 supporters and Irish haters.

But just because I couldn't make the switch doesn't mean that you can't do it, however. You can choose your own fate. For me, I'm choosing a future of occasional free donuts. And I guess I wouldn't have it any other way.

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 8:05 PM | Comments (0)

A's Far A's They Go

The quest for the American League pennant is now complete, leaving fans with a winner to celebrate and a loser to psychoanalyze. Exaltation for the Detroit Tigers is better tabled until next week — they still have four more wins to come. As for the Oakland Athletics, it's time for them to take a seat on the coach and tell us about their childhood.

Admittedly, I never thought the Oakland Athletics would still be playing baseball through the second week of October. The first week maybe, but not the second.

Last year, in my inaugural Sports Central column, I exposed the alleged fraud of the Moneyball religion and its high priest, one Billy Beane. My timing was almost perfect. Oakland had dropped into the AL West cellar at 24-37 earlier that week and devotees received my blasphemies with the same warmth accorded Johnny Damon during his first visit to Fenway Park in pinstripes. Even Baseball Prospectus accused me of being a member of the Flat Earth Society, as if the search for one-dimensional ballplayers was as radical as the search for a New World.

To my detriment, the A's got hot. Unbeknownst to anyone, they were taking the baby steps of a 51-19 run that would carry them into a first-place tie by August 2 and the outright divisional lead by August 11.

Alas, first place was short-lived. Moneyball wilted down the stretch as the A's lost 18 of their final 31 games. Athletics Nation grew silent, their team once again finding itself out of the playoffs.

At the time, out of the playoffs was their safest place. During the first eight years of Billy Beane's reign, the A's were a postseason disaster. Through four playoff appearances, they had yet to get past the best-of-five ALDS, despite reaching the decisive game each time. In all, they played and lost nine games in which they could have clinched any one of those series with a win. Twice — in 2001 to the Yankees and in 2003 to the Red Sox — they blew two-games-to-none leads. It was a futility from which even their GM wished to distance himself, claiming in Michael Lewis's Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game that his "shit doesn't work in the playoffs."

A year later, little seemed to change. The 2006 Athletics opened much like their predecessors. By May 30, they fell to 23-29 after losing for the tenth time in eleven games. But this year, I held my tongue, which proved a wise move. The A's ran the table from there, winning 70 of their last 110 games to take the AL West divisional crown at 93-69. And, despite all the warning signs, Beane's Boys appeared headed for another postseason collapse.

But something happened on the way to winter.

Ironically, that "something" started in Detroit during the final regular season series with Kansas City. On two separate occasions, the Tigers stranded runners on third with one out in extra inning losses. Plating either run would have given Detroit the AL Central and a date with the A's, where Oakland's season would have again ended in ALDS disappointment, as history was to confirm.

Nonetheless, fate — and the Royals' bullpen — proved more compassionate than in recent years. The A's drew the Twins and Frank Thomas opened the postseason by homering off Johan Santana, the most formidable pitcher in baseball. His blast reverberated through the Twins' fragile confidence with the magnitude of a tremor along the San Andreas Fault. A day later, Houston Street set the Twins down in the ninth, and the A's took a two-games-to-none lead back to Oakland, presumably to meet their Waterloo.

Now, it can be debated whether extricating the monkey from Billy's back — as the A's 8-3 win to close out the Twins did — was worth the ensuing embarrassment handed them by the Tigers. That depends. Is it better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all? Having chosen the former, the dirty laundry of Moneyball was soon laid bare before a nightly national television audience.

Moneyball preaches two basic tenets: identify those tools correlative with winning, and fill your roster with the cheapest players who possess them. As for the first, it cherishes men who get on base while demonizing those who try to advance, because the risk of doing so outweighs the actuarially determined benefit. This explains why the A's never attempted to sacrifice or steal in seven postseason games; how a catcher could lead a MLB team in steals; and why base runners dressed in green cling with fear to the bases they reach, like an incarnation of the invisible runners of childhood sandlot days who had to be forced to the next outpost. Meanwhile, Placido Polanco and Carlos Guillen dispensed with Tigers feasibility studies and just got motoring whenever Jason Kendall couldn't pluck pitches from the dirt.

In Moneyball, there are no cheap players, only undervalued ones. And much like that undervalued suit from the Salvation Army starts looking threadbare by cocktail hour after a long business day, Frank Thomas looked a little worse for wear against the Tigers. A value-added pickup from the White Sox scrap heap last winter, Thomas had Billy's disciples singing with his 39-homer, 114-RBI regular season. But after hitting two homers in the ALDS opener, The Big Hurt was exactly that to his team, collecting two hits in his next 19 at bats, including an 0-for-13 ALCS in which he left 12 men on base. In Game 2, he stranded three runners in the ninth inning of a three-run loss.

Discipline at the plate is one of Beane's favorite tools, but it is not as popular among his players. Oakland hitters swung at first pitches 40 times in four ALCS games, although they did collect 10 hits in the process. Leading the impatience parade were Thomas (0-for-6 when first-pitch swinging) and sabermetric poster child Eric Chavez (1-for-6, a Game 2 home run).

Perhaps a little reverse engineering is in order over the winter. For instance, if the Moneyball minions can dissect the secrets of getting hitters on base, they can also be applied to keep runners off. During the four-game ALCS, the Tigers managed an OBP of .367 as Oakland pitchers allowed 56 base runners. That was 14 per game, 1.6 per inning. One key was discipline. Each Tigers hitter saw an average of 3.86 pitches per plate appearance, which would have ranked the Oakland staff among the most inefficient in the Majors if projected over the entire season. The A's were beaten by their own game.

Yet, for all the futility of following Billy's Boys, Athletics Nation remains an assemblage of the most loyal and passionate fans in all of sport. They don't complain about the financial tables tipped decidedly against them, nor about frugal ownership, nor disappointing finishes. Rather, they pride themselves in economical wins and bask in the warm sunshine of eternal hope.

At that's a good thing since, in Oakland, the winters are quite long.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 7:44 PM | Comments (3)

October 16, 2006

Fire Torre? The Curse of Playoff Thinking

Major League Baseball's playoffs are the sport's biggest stage and top marketing tool. It's just too bad they set discussion about baseball back 50 years each fall and turn normally reasonable fans and analysts alike into blithering idiots.

Nowhere is "playoff thinking" more evident than in the Bronx, where anything less than a World Series championship is utter failure. This fall, the debate was over the Bombers' "absolutely unacceptable" performance and the implications for manager Joe Torre's job status.
Would the Boss replace Torre? Who would be the successor? Would Torre, George Steinbrenner, and Alex Rodriguez settle their differences in a three-man steel cage match during the offseason?

Ultimately, Steinbrenner reaffirmed his faith in Torre, telling his 11-year manager that he would return for a 12th season. The latter announced the news in what can only be described as a bittersweet press conference for Torre, who, but for a last-minute change of heart at the top of the organization, could have been relaxing on his couch at this time next year and watching some poor schmuck (Joe Girardi, perhaps?) dance and sweat under the Boss's deranged eye.

But this isn't about what Joe Torre could be doing next October — it's about what the Yankees' recent postseason shortcomings and the associated hype does to brainpower across the country (namely, shrinking it by a factor of eight) and how the debate over Torre's job would look if cool reason were applied to the Yankees' personnel decisions for once (here's a hint: the debate wouldn't exist).

Don't Forget How Good He Never Was...

Before you dig into Torre's performance as the Yankees' skipper, it's important to know who he was for the 12 years before he got the Yankees job — unless, of course, you're one of those (we call them "Yankee buffoons," and it's not a term of endearment) who believes that those first 12 years are in the past and have nothing to tell us about Torre's skills as a manager, because the move to the Bronx included some sort of brain transplant. If you're one of those people, then feel free to skip this next section, skip the rest of the article and instead start concentrating on what the Knicks' season is going to be like with Isiah Thomas at the helm.

Before arriving in New York, Torre had managed the New York Mets, Atlanta Braves, and St. Louis Cardinals with significantly less success than you might expect from a guy who currently owns four World Series rings. The Mets job was a disaster — Torre's teams went 286-420 (.405) over five glorious seasons, cementing Joe as one of the worst managers in the big leagues.

Miraculously, Torre's utter lack of success inspired the Braves' front office to decide he was the man to lead their team to the promised land. Also rather miraculously, Torre reached the playoffs for the first time in his career during three seasons in which Atlanta went 257-229 (.529). Some learning curve, huh? Maybe he's just a late bloomer, huh?

Well, if he is, he's a real late bloomer, because after leaving the Braves, six seasons in St. Louis netted a 351-354 record and zero postseason appearances.

So let's see if we've got this right. Fourteen seasons of major league managing experience, a .471 winning percentage, and zero postseason victories. Well, if that's not a resume that screams "Hall of Fame managerial acumen," I don't know what is.

The point is that nothing about Joe Torre's first 14 seasons suggests that his skills are anything surpassing mediocre. Not that all the losing was his fault, of course. Most of it wasn't. Those Mets teams were brutal and basically beyond rescue.

At the same time, nothing about Torre's next 11 seasons in New York suggest anything in way of unusual talent or incompetence, either. Eleven years, a .607 winning percentage with the best players in the league and roughly 40 games per year against the lowly Devil Rays and Orioles, and four World Series titles.

So, when folks in New York were ready to make Joe the next Catholic saint in 2000 when he won his third consecutive championship, they were singing the praises of a guy who had amassed a grand total of five winning seasons before joining Big George's record-setting payrolls. Joe Torre is a manager who, over 25 seasons, has won with good talent and lost with bad. Nothing more, nothing less. That's the background.

A Playoff Choker? Hardly

But the debate over Torre's skills and future in New York isn't about his regular season record. Eleven seasons in the Bronx have yielded 10 playoff berths and nine in a row. Nobody's teams run the regular season marathon like Torre's boys, but then again, the regular season is hardly the point in New York, is it? Nope, it's Torre's inability to win the big one that had the phone lines buzzing at every Big Apple radio station and national commentators saying it was time for a change.

This is where it really gets comical. In his time with the Yankees, Torre has won at a .607 clip overall. In the playoffs, that figure improves to .630. That's right, crazy Yankees fan. That bumbling idiot is better when it counts than he is during the regular season. If managers were capable of such a thing, you might call him clutch. Except he hasn't been clutch lately, has he? Oh, no. As the Yankees' payroll has grown, their postseason success rate has shrunk, and after a torrid start to his tenure during which his teams won four championships in a five-year span, Torre's last six seasons have passed without a title.

So what happened? Did Joe get dumb? Did he lose the ability to get the most out of his players? Has he been sabotaged by a lineup that just doesn't have the same hunger as those 1998 and 1999 teams?

Uh, it's called "regression to the mean," folks, and it's going to happen, no matter who's managing the team. In his first 10 postseason series, Torre posted a 35-10 record for a winning percentage of .778. And that's against other postseason teams. Guess what, Yankees fan? Your teams were good, but they weren't that good. That was the kind of success that a team can have over a 45-game period, but not forever, and we're starting to find out that even the great Joe Torre (see if you can find anybody at Shea Stadium who will put those three words together) isn't immune to the power of averages.

Over his past four postseason series, Torre has a record of 10-11, a function not of how poorly he has managed, but of the realities of baseball: it was going to be impossible to keep up a .750+ winning percentage forever. This is the kind of thing anybody with a math degree and a modicum of baseball sense could have predicted six years ago.

These Ain't Your 1998 Yankees

Last thing. Let's take a look at this year's Yankees team quickly, shall we? As long as there have been playoff series, there has been a pretty obvious truth about what types of teams succeed. Here's a hint: it's not always, or even frequently, the best team. It's the team that can author multiple dominating pitching performances in a short period of time. Randy Johnson's and Curt Schilling's ability to carry the otherwise inferior 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks over the Yankees proves this point pretty clearly.

Now take a peek at the 2006 Yankees and specifically the pitchers who trotted out to the mound to face off against the Tigers' lineup. A wobbly Mike Mussina, a geriatric Johnson, Chien-Mien Wang, and Jaret Wright? Your most dominant arm (Wang) strikes out fewer than five hitters per nine innings, and the guy starting your elimination game (Wright) has pitched a total of one solid season in his career.

What part of this is Joe Torre's fault? If there's anybody who should be sweating bullets, it's general manager Brian Cashman for his inability to generate a stronger starting rotation with $200 million at his disposal. Despite assurances across baseball that he's one of the game's best, the Yankees found their two most reliable players (Wang and Robinson Cano) by accident and still don't have anybody who can actually play first base.

What part of this is Joe Torre's fault?

When October 2007 rolls around, Torre's Yankees will once again be in the playoffs and likely be the best team on paper. Will they win it all? Maybe. Maybe not. If they do, Joe Torre will once again be the smartest guy in baseball (and Steinbrenner by extension, for retaining him). If not, I'll have another column to write.

Posted by Zach Jones at 11:01 PM | Comments (1)

Carnoustie: The Mother of All Golf Courses

Barring a bizarre chain of events, I will never play soccer at Wembley Stadium. Gone too is any chance of playing cricket at Lord's, baseball at Yankee Stadium, or winning the men's singles title at Wimbledon (I'm English, after all).

It seems destiny has made me an everyman, a voyeur from plastic seat or through plasma screen. For this perennial dreamer, the door to the grandest stage is all but closed. "I could have been somebody," as Marlon Brando best said.

Last month, however, I walked in the footsteps of sporting legend. It didn't cost anything, there was no real training involved and it had absolutely nothing to do with talent. Golf, it appears, is the game which brings you closest to your sporting gods.

When I wrote to the Carnoustie Links, I did so with a preconceived notion of stuffy officious types greeting my request with guffaws of cake-muffled laughter. "This young man is asking to play the championship course," they would scoff, "what insolence!"

Opening my emails the following morning, I could barely believe my eyes. Not only was I offered a tee time on the course, less than a year before it hosts the greatest tournament in golf, but I was also invited to play at no cost to myself or my father-in-law. And they say golf's an inaccessible sport.

What followed was an afternoon of sobering contemplation at the task ahead. I'd heard the course was challenging, and I knew Paul Lawrie won The Open in 1999 with an over-par total, but the true venom of this coastal beast percolates the Internet like a public health warning. "Austere. Bleak. Barren. Desolate. Forbidding," read one website. "The hardest golf course in the world," said another.

It's just 18 holes, I thought. Nobody died. And so a golfing odyssey began.

We landed in Edinburgh and headed north. Traveling by train, Scotland's stunning natural beauty ebbed and flowed from valley to mountain, through rocky outcrop and over sparkling lochs. Gradually, we left the lowlands and entered the heart of this beautiful country. "Scotland starts as Perth," said our landlord in Blair Athol.

Having scaled as high as Inverness, we started our descent south-easterly towards Carnoustie, encountering the genial Scottish at every turn. It seemed nothing was too much trouble, and nobody too busy to indulge in conversation.

Each time we bought up Carnoustie, however, a strange thing happened. Glowing faces turned suddenly ashen.

As if comprehending the most heinous of all places, landlords, taxi drivers, and pub regulars alike, would drift towards a dark corridor of their mind and offer their foreboding tales of sporting misery. The message was clear. We, the golfing hobbits, were heading for the links equivalent of Mordor.

Following a wonderfully scenic train ride from Dundee, we arrived in Carnoustie and strolled into town to soak up the atmosphere. The golf tourists were everywhere, immersed in sporting pilgrimage and paying their respects at the local golfing stores. "Must get a load of balls," said one well-jumpered golf-lover to another.

Tim, my ever-generous father-in-law, treated me to a pair of golf shoes in one such establishment. A young caddie working in the store soon reminded us of the enormity of our task. "The championship course then," he said, "should be interesting for you, it's very long and you should add at least ten shots to what you usually score. You'll need some more balls."

"We're looking forward to the challenge" I replied. Remarkably, I maintained the demeanor of a competent golfer enjoying an everyday experience on a major championship course. My facade would soon be demolished in spectacular style.

It's a strange feeling to look upon scenes of iconic sporting triumph (and disaster) with your own eyes. For a true fan, it felt surreal and magical. Ben Hogan had won here in 1953, Gary Player in 1968, and Tom Watson in 1975. Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods and Severiano Ballesteros had all walked the legendary fairways at their peak. And then there was Jean Van De Velde. "We're not worthy," I thought.

Having delayed the inevitable for as long as possible, Tim and I left the comfort of the practice area and made our way to the first tee. A couple from Vancouver, dressed as if they were extras in The Sopranos, had been given the dubious pleasure of accompanying us on the round.

Completing our group were two local caddies, Fiona and Andy, a luxury that Tim had insisted on funding. Both were strong golfers who knew the course inside out. Their patience would be tried in the afternoon ahead, but they began by lifting our moral. "Sergio Garcia got an 8 on this one in '99," said Andy, "so anything better and you'll be ahead of him going into the second."

As Fiona checked the yardage, showed me an illustration of where to aim and handed me the driver, I suddenly felt like the biggest fraud in sporting history. "I'm here to write a piece," I told her, "so don't expect any great golf."

"You'll be fine, just avoid the bunkers on the right and the OB on the left, " she said calmly. You'll be glad to know I did both, sending a vicious hook into the deep heather over by a parallel fairway. "We'll find that," she said softly.

Tim, on the other hand, blazed a comfortable drive down the middle and left Andy very satisfied. Poor Fiona, I thought. Somehow I managed a sketchy five and Tim and I moved onto the second tee just one over par. "You're both three ahead of Sergio," said Andy.

It proved a monumental false dawn. While Tim played with guile and composure, I zigzagged the course like a frightened rabbit, dragging the hapless Fiona along for an exhausting front nine. "I'll go find those other three balls when we come back down the eighth," she offered.

Though there were a couple of pars in the mix, my hilarious card showed a 12, an 8, and at least one score that could have won a rugby match. "I'm just trying to get the full experience," I joked. I doubt very much Fiona laughed.

As we made the turn, I bought Fiona a candy bar and she disappeared to pick berries behind the tee box, no doubt stifling the urge to end my misery with a 3-iron to the head. "Never pick them below waist height," she said dryly on her return. It took me an age to work out why, but then I clearly wasn't on point.

Heading into the epic last four holes, I had regained some confidence and felt ready to re-enact the childhood fantasy of winning a major down the 18th. For my garden, substitute a real, genuine championship course. I would still provide the commentary in my head.

On the last tee, the sun burst through and illuminated a quite wonderful vista. If there was a golfing heaven, we had arrived. The silhouettes of golfers ahead were breathtakingly cinematic, and one couldn't help but feel privileged to be enjoying such a unique opportunity.

Thoughts soon turned to Van De Velde. It was the Frenchman who famously capitulated on the 18th at Carnoustie, needing just a six to win The Open in 1999. "He hit a bad drive," said Andy, "then a bad second shot which cracked into the grandstand, and then he went in the water."

Van De Velde got a seven that day and the chance of a lifetime slipped through his fingers. He will be relieved to know, however, that his triple-bogey on the last was considerably better than my attempt at the hole. Luckily, I had little more than pride at stake.

With the round over, our strange-looking foursome shook hands and reflected on a truly memorable experience. For Fiona, a long day's work was finally over. "Thank you so much," I said, " sorry you ended up walking twice as far as usual."

"You're not very good at golf," said Fiona, "but at least you're nice."

Carnoustie's narrow fairways and cavernous bunkers had proved every bit as hard as its reputation suggested. Having benefited from perfect conditions and rough cut far shorter than it will be next summer, it is with utmost respect that this course should be approached.

Ultimately, the experience of playing such an iconic and picturesque course is worthy of any embarrassment its trials and tribulations may bring, for to walk in the footsteps of sporting legends is a rare and beautiful thing.

Posted by Will Tidey at 6:44 PM | Comments (0)

October 14, 2006

Humanity vs. Commodity in Sports

"That option's been eliminated."

I don't know if that's a direct quote, because honestly I was too flabbergasted and revolted to recall exactly what ESPN baseball analyst Peter Gammons had said. But I starkly remember when he said it: only a few hours after pitcher Cory Lidle's plane crashed into a Manhattan high-rise, causing death, destruction and the resurfacing of the most painfully paranoid emotions of every post-9/11 New Yorker.

Gammons was discussing Lidle's career and his sudden demise with a Suit on ESPNEWS, cable's most popular network for those searching for that Toledo/Kent State football score. The Suit was one of those typical ESPN JV players: a hack comedian praying his boom-goes-the-dynamite shtick would one day earn him at best a spot on the weekend SportsCenter and at worst a day filling in for the guy on "Around the Horn" who resembles Andy Pettitte doing a bad Dick Vitale impression.

The Suit asked Gammons a question about Lidle that just stunned me for its awkward stupidity: what does his death mean for the Yankees? Sure, he couched it with something like "I know this might not be the right time, but..." — yet the question was asked, and Gammons answered it, offering thoughts on the Yankees' returning starters, Lidle's status as a soon-to-be free agent at the time of his death, and the possibility that he could have come back to the Bronx.

I paraphrase again: "That option's been eliminated."

We didn't know the name of Lidle's flight instructor yet, but we knew the Yankees' 2007 pitching staff configuration and that they wouldn't have resigned Lidle even if he had not lost his life that afternoon.

Sick, I tell you. Sick.

Is there any consideration given to humanity in times of tragedy? I couldn't help but wonder if ESPN had tossed up a graphic back in July that read: "Gammons Has Brain Aneurysm; 'Baseball Tonight' Studio Show Thrown Into Chaos."

By and large, professional athletes ceased being human beings in the eyes of the sports media and the majority of fans a long time ago. They're commodities — chess pieces moved around the board until they're, as Gammons reminds us, "eliminated." We hear of a tragedy like Lidle's plane crash, and go through the motions: shock, grief, bewilderment, what it means for the sport in question, what it means for the team in question, and then, finally, humor.

Yes, humor. How long did it take before you heard your first Lidle joke this week? I had "it wasn't A-Rod, because A-Rob can't hit anything in the postseason" in my inbox before the sun went down.

But that's what we've become as sports fans. The athletes for whom we care deeply are an elite group of superstars and popular fan favorites. Everyone else is just a chess piece or, in other cases, the enemy. So when we hear about the wide receiver, whose personal life took a turn for the worse, taking an overdose of pills and nearly ending his life, we celebrate it, because he wears the wrong colors and has a big mouth. Not that he's a tragic human being or anything; he's just a chess piece we want to see eliminated.

I'm as guilty of that mindset as anyone. When Trent Green got his head taken off in Week 1 of the NFL season, my first reaction wasn't concern about his well-being or whether he'd ever play again. It was shock and dismay that I had just lost my starting fantasy football quarterback. That reaction is really no different than the reaction of a Chiefs fan or any fan whose starting quarterback takes a fall in the first round of the fight — our first concern isn't his health, but the health of our season.

I speak from experience, as a Chad Pennington-era Jets fan.

But those tragedies, such as they were, happened on the field. I think that separation between what happens in the stadium or the arena and what happens in the "real world" has been blurred and, in effect, has blurred our moral clarity. We've seen incidents during games that would have landed the offending parties in front of a judge if had instead happened outside of a bar: a boot to the fact, a punch in the back of the head, or a brawl in the stands. But these athletes never end up in jail; hell, they hardly do when it does happen outside of a bar.

Injuries are treated the same way. If Green has suffered the same injury in a car crash as he did on the field, would our reaction have been any different? Outside of an acknowledgment of bad luck, our first thoughts would have still been centered on what it meant for the Chiefs or for a fantasy football roster. That's just who we are.

This isn't some soapbox screed about how our soulless sports fan culture needs to change its wicked ways. I'm not one of these sports columnists who shame their readers for displaying appalling morals and then next week publish something like "20 Reasons Why T.O. is a Scumbag."

No, I'm a realist. Whether it's due to the media, the commercialization, the economics or simply the coarsening of our society, I realize that we all have a strange disconnect with celebrity and tragedy, humanity and commodity.

And I realize that when Gammons was talking about what the Yankees' rotation would look like after Cory Lidle's death, I was thinking about something else: "Ya know, if it had been [Derek] Jeter on that plane, they would have postponed the playoffs for a month..."

Sick, I tell you. Sick.

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 9:44 PM | Comments (2)

October 12, 2006

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 6

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Buffalo @ Detroit

Detroit is one of only two winless teams remaining in the NFC, and the reason is clear: their defense can't keep opponents out of the end zone, nor can their offense. Last week, Minnesota returned two Jon Kitna turnovers for touchdowns as the Vikes scored 23 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Lions 26-17.

"I think it's time," says Lions general manager Matt Millen, contemplating firing himself, "for an ultimatum. Either we win, or I'm staying."

"Man, I've never thought of throwing a game," says Kitna. "Wait a minute, yes I have. I played in Cincinnati, and had some pretty serious conversations with Pete Rose. He's an intimidating guy ... when he's down 30 grand and holding a Louisville Slugger. Anyway, I never threw a game, at least not on purpose."

The Bills ran into arguably the best team in the NFL, the Chicago Bears, and were soundly beaten 40-7.

"You'll get no argument from me," says J.P. Losman, who threw three interceptions. "I thought the Bears would at least show me some compassion. After all, 'Losman' rhymes with 'Grossman.'"

Who's the better team here? The Bills, of course, but jobs are on the line in Detroit. Lions win, 20-17. Millen loses 10 pounds on sweat alone.

Carolina @ Baltimore

How's this for a situation that had the betting man pulling out his hair, or wildly celebrating: as nine-point underdogs, the Browns were down 20-9 with eight seconds left facing a fourth down. Coach Romeo Crenel decided to kick the field goal, and Phil Dawson's 32-yarder made it 20-12. After a failed onside kick, the Panthers won, the Browns covered, and a lot of money changed hands.

"It serves them right," adds Carolina head coach John Fox, "for picking us to cover. What kind of fool picks us to cover? My gosh, we can't even cover against the Browns in Carolina? It's like my buddy Jim Cornette said, right before he nailed a baby face with a tennis racket: 'We couldn't whip cream with an outboard motor.'"

Okay, not a good idea to pick the Panthers to cover. And speaking of bad ideas, how about throwing at Champ Bailey on third down in the red zone with the game tied 3-3? The Ravens did last Monday night, and Bailey intercepted Steve McNair. Instead of running the ball on third down and taking the field goal for a 6-3 lead, the Ravens left empty-handed and eventually lost 13-3.

"Just for the record," says Ravens quarterback Steve McNair, "I don't make my own play calls. And I usually don't audible, but that was a good time for one. That had to be the dumbest play call ever. Coach Billick let his smugness get the better of him, and it may have cost us the game."

Guess what? The Ravens are in another low-scoring game. Here's a few words of advice, Billick: double-cover Steve Smith. Remember, last year during the regular season, the Panthers visited Chicago and their tough defensive unit, and only Smith showed up to play. Oh yeah, and you might want to double-team Julius Peppers, and let your defense and field goal unit do the rest. You'll be glad you did.

Baltimore rebounds and wins, 19-13.

Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay

The Bengals spent their bye week resting, recuperating, and plea bargaining. The Odell Thurman DWI repercussions are still resonating, as wide receiver Chris Henry, who was with Thurman at the time of his arrest, was suspended two games by the NFL under its conduct and substance abuse policy.

"Damn, I'm sick of this," complains Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis. "I don't even get to talk football in my press conferences. Reluctantly, I have to answer questions about my idiot players and their legal transgressions. And I don't even get to watch film on Friday and Saturday nights. I'm too busy listening to my police scanner. But in my players' defense, they really have done a good job keeping local highways clean. And, they've inspired CBS to make a new addition to their crime drama lineup with a show called DWI: Cincinnati. At least my criminals are making headlines. Heck, Chad Johnson can barely make the box score."

The rested Bengals will face a winless Buccaneers team that was on the brink of upsetting the Saints in New Orleans until Reggie Bush returned a punt for the winning score. However, Jon Gruden was encouraged by the play of Bruce Gradkowski, who threw for 225 yards and two touchdowns in his first start.

"If Bruce wasn't quarterbacking the Bucs," explains Gruden, "then he would likely be in his native homeland of Poland knocking back mugs of beer at Oktoberfest and hooking up with the St. Pauli girl. But unlike certain Bengals, Bruce puts football before drunken stupidity. There's a time and place for that. Apparently, that time and place is 3:00 AM on the streets of Cincy."

Moments before kickoff, Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer gets a booty call — from USC quarterback John David Booty, who offers Palmer words of encouragement. Palmer takes heed, and throws three touchdown passes as the Bengals prevail, 27-20.

Houston @ Dallas

Is it time for a quarterback change in Dallas? Drew Bledsoe threw three interceptions, lost a fumble, and was sacked seven times in Dallas' 38-24 loss to the Eagles.

"Bom-ba-di-da, bom-ba-di-da," sings Bill Parcells. "Happy trails to Drew, until we meet again. Seriously, though, as of this moment, Drew is still our quarterback. Okay, that moment is over. He's not our quarterback. When Drew's not busy distributing the ball to the other team, he's a pretty good quarterback. Actually, I plan to make a game-time decision to bench Drew."

Houston rookie Mario Williams recorded his first sack in Week 4 against suddenly-immobile Daunte Culpepper, and will get his shot at the permanently-immobile Bledsoe this Sunday at Texas Stadium.

"I've studied film on Bledsoe," says Williams, "and I've studied still pictures of him, and they both tell the same story: even snails call Bledsoe slow."

Parcells keeps it simple for Bledsoe, calling mostly three-step drops, which is ample time for Terry Glenn and Owens to navigate 60-yard, downfield routes. Bledsoe hits Glenn for a TD bomb, and appeases Owens with a short scoring pass.

Cowboys win, 30-13.

N.Y. Giants @ Atlanta

The Giants stormed back from a bye week with a 19-3 domination of the Redskins, allowing the 'Skins only 164 total yards and three points on the scoreboard. The G-Men improved to 2-2, tied for second in the NFC East with Dallas. Tight end Jeremy Shockey accused Joe Gibbs and his staff of being unprepared, and threw in a few profanities, because that's how he talks.

"Oh, that Shockey is one unpredictable SOB," says New York coach Tom Coughlin. "He's from 'The U,' right? I'm pleased that he went through sensitivity training at the real 'U,' IBU, I Blame University. And he really stepped up his play after blaming our coaches and myself for losing to the Seahawks. What'd he have? One catch for 13 yards?"

The Giants will travel to Atlanta to face the 3-1 Falcons and the league's No. 1 rushing offense. Atlanta averages 234 yards per game on the ground, which is nearly 60 more than the Chargers.

"You know, analysts insist that we need some balance on the offensive side," says Michael Vick, "meaning we need to pass more to keep defenses from loading up against the run. I'm all for that, but I don't think the coaches have confidence in me. Heck, even when I do a commercial, like for Nike Gridiron, they won't even let me pass. With the game on the line, LaDainian Tomlinson gets to make the game-winning pass to that kid Ryan."

The Giants answered questions about their defense last week. Not "Can they play it?" But, "Do they have one?" The outcome of this game will tell which of these teams is legitimate, or it might tell us that both are illegitimate. Fresh off a bye week, the Falcons keep running, and turn back the Giants, 25-20.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

Okay, maybe Terrell Owens didn't get Donovan McNabb's text message. McNabb supposedly sent Owens a message after Owens' overdose two weeks ago; Owens says he didn't receive it.

"Is T.O. from North Korea?" asks McNabb. "'Cause he's Kim Jong Illin.' I sent the message. I know it. T.O. knows it. Who are you gonna believe? Me, or his lying eyes?"

I believe you, Donovan. But answer me this: did you end your message with a (:-)?

It took five weeks, but Reggie Bush finally scored his first touchdown, on a 65-yard punt return that gave the Saints a 24-21 win over the Bucs, and a 4-1 record.

"Wow! It was just like I was back in college," Bush says.

What, you just bought your parents another house?

"No, fool," replies Bush, "no one even came close to tackling me. Now, can I get a candy bar named after me?"

Saints' fans were justifiably excited by Bush's touchdown, but they are downright delusional when they start the "MVP! MVP!" chant as Bush takes the field. McNabb hears the chant, and assumes it's directed at him, so he sprints on the field to accept his "NFL First Quarter MVP" award from Tic-Tac mints, who present the Eagle QB with a Tic-Tac. Not a pack, just one. McNabb shakes off the effects of slightly minty breath to throw for three touchdowns as the Eagles win, 34-28.

Seattle @ St. Louis

"If the Seahawks want to win the West," says Rams coach Scott Linehan, "they'll have to go through St. Louis."

"Scott's right," says Seattle's Mike Holgren, covering his mouth with his laminated play sheet so no one can read his lips. "St. Louis is on the way from Seattle to Miami, home of this year's Super Bowl, so we will have to go through St. Louis, and we're stopping at every Waffle House possible. Our game plan is simple: we can't let Albert Pujols beat us."

Actually, Mike, it's Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson you should worry about. Bulger hasn't thrown an interception in his last 214 pass attempts, and Jackson is tied for the NFL lead in rushing.

"Just so everyone knows," says Jackson, "I'm Steven Jackson, not Stephen Jackson, the gun-toting fool of the Indiana Pacers. This gangster got hit by a car and retaliated by firing shots into the air? Hey, Stephen, you got hit by a car, not a plane. I know Chris Henry had to be around when this went down."

Can the Seahawks not win this game? The division lead is on the line against their division rivals. They want to re-establish themselves as a force after being humiliated by the Bears two weeks ago, and they're rested after a bye week. And, the Rams can't beat teams with a winning record. After giving up a Torry Holt touchdown reception, the Seahawks storm back and take outright control of the division.

Seattle wins, 33-21.

Tennessee @ Washington

The Titans surprised everyone by nearly upsetting the heavily-favored Colts in Indianapolis, falling 14-13 after leading 10-0 at half-time. Obviously, the fear of having their face stomped by a Tennessee player affected the play of the Colts, and it took a Peyton Manning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne with five minutes left to give Indy the winning points.

"You'll notice I wasn't sacked in this game," says Manning. "There was no way I was going to end up on my back, face up, with 11 sets of Titan feet near my head."

That's great, Peyton. Why don't you get lost and go work on another commercial. Does the word "overexposure" mean anything to you?

The big news in Washington was the Redskins inability to score more than three points after dropping 36 on the Jaguars in the previous week. The loss leaves the 'Skins at 2-3, and 0-2 in the NFC East.

"It hasn't been the best of weeks in Washington," laments coach Joe Gibbs. "We couldn't run, we couldn't pass, and Florida Congressman Mark Foley has been bothering some of my younger players with creepy, perverted emails. For the last time, Foley, my players don't roll like that. But it does get kind of lonely here in the stadium late at night on weekdays."

Will the Redskins play like the team that was spanked by the Giants last week? Probably not. Will the Titans play like the team that almost shocked the Colts? I doubt it. Sean Taylor has a big game, content in knowing that spitting in a player's face is not nearly as bad as stomping on it. Taylor has an interception and several hits worthy of "Jacked Up!" consideration. Clinton Portis rushes for 130 yards and a score.

Washington wins, 27-9.

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers are 1-3 and in trouble. The offense can't score enough, Ben Roethlisberger is erratic, and the Steelers still have to go to Baltimore and Cincinnati.

"Have you ever heard of a quarterback playing like he did in winning the Super Bowl," says Bill Cowher, "and it be a bad thing? Well, Ben's playing like crap, just like he did in the Super Bowl, and Antwan Randle El is no longer here to make the big throws for him. But, there's no need for drastic measures. I'm only going to take down one of the one hundred life-size Fathead stickers from my bathroom wall."

After an 0-2 start, the Chiefs have won two straight, albeit over the 49ers and Cardinals, and are only one game out in the loss column in the AFC West. But a win against the wounded Steelers in Pittsburgh may be too much to ask for Herman Edwards and the Chiefs.

"I will not let his team be intimidated by the Pittsburgh crowd," says Edwards. "After all, the place is named for ketchup, which, in the defense of ketchup, is probably the most intimidating condiment on the planet. But we don't fear ketchup, especially Heinz ketchup, and we don't fear the Steelers. Although I do fear the Steelers if I'm playing without Larry Johnson."

Currently, Johnson is listed as questionable, but will probably play. The Steelers are backed into a corner, and cannot afford a fourth consecutive loss. Cowher ignores the crowd's chants of "We want Batch! We want Batch!" and starts Roethlisberger, who makes several mistake-free handoffs to Willie Parker, who rushes for 123 yards and a score.

Steelers win, 27-16.

Miami @ N.Y. Jets

The Jets were mauled by the Jaguars 41-0, their worst defeat in twenty years. Chad Pennington lost the personal battle with his former Marshall teammate and current friend Byron Leftwich, who tossed two touchdown passes.

"We were totally outclassed," says Pennington. "You know, like Alex Rodriguez in any playoff series."

The Dolphins fell to the Patriots 20-10 as Daunte Culpepper was benched in favor of Joey Harrington, who responded with a fairly decent game. Reports surfaced early in the week of a heated argument between Culpepper and Miami head coach Nick Saban that took place on the Friday before the Patriot-Dolphins game.

"Details are sketchy," says Harrington, "but sources say Coach Saban told Daunte that if he missed one more study hall, then he was off the team. Daunte then tried to run away, but Saban quickly caught him and sacked him for a loss."

The 'Fins are in dire need of a win, especially a division win. With a loss, they would be 0-3 in the East. Harrington's been there before, and he doesn't like it, and that's his motivation. The former Lion hits Chris Chambers for a score, and rushes for one himself.

Miami pulls off the upset, 21-20.

San Diego @ San Francisco

Are the Chargers the best team in the AFC? After handling the Steelers 27-13, the Bolts look like a team that has the skills to make a postseason run. Their defense is giving up only nine points a game, and coach Marty Schottenheimer has opened up the offense. The Chargers are fifth in the league in scoring with nearly 26 points per game.

"I wasn't around for it," says Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers, "but I've heard the stories about 'Martyball.' You know, three plays and a cloud of optimism. Marty's promised us that those days are long gone, at least until the playoffs start."

The 49ers, at 2-3, have a one game lead over the Cardinals in the junior varsity division of the NFC West. They are 2-1 at home, and running back Frank Gore is tied for the league lead in rushing yards.

"I'm fully aware that lurking on the other side of the ball is Shawne Merriman," says Gore, "and I'm frightened. Isn't he the guy that knocked Priest Holmes out of football? If I come out of this game with the NFL rushing lead, then I'll be happy. Heck, if I come out of this game without a fumble, I'll be happy."

It's a long day for Gore, as well as Alex Smith, as the 49ers finish their AFC West swing with a 1-2 record. LaDainian Tomlinson rushes for 68 yards in 2½ quarters, then watches Michael Turner gain 85 yards in mop-up duty.

Chargers win, 24-3.

Oakland @ Denver

Toss out the records and the rule books for this one, and toss out any chance of the Raiders winning. The Raiders are in turmoil and guess who wants out of Oakland — Randy Moss.

"This Raider team is a Big Wack Attack," says Moss, enjoying a two-pound bag of Skittles. "Frankly, I'm ashamed to be a Raider. I'm not sure we're capable of raiding anything, except maybe some panties. That reminds, could I be traded back to the Vikings? I'd really like to hang out with those guys on their bye week. Here, have a Skittle. Taste the rainbow, fool!"

Somewhere, Joe Buck is saying, "That's disgusting!"

The Broncos improved to 4-1 with a tough 13-3 win over the Ravens in a cold rain in Denver. Jake Plummer hit Rod Smith with a short touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter for the clinching points. Rumors are swirling that Plummer will be traded at the end of the year to make way for Jay Cutler, projected as the starter next year.

"Yes, I've heard those rumors," says Plummer, "but I've just got to play my game and stay positive. Like I did in the second half last Monday. Now, after the first half, in which I threw for all of six yards, I wouldn't have been surprised if the Broncos traded me right on the spot. But I'm hanging in, and my teammates and I should be well-prepared for our playoff swoon in January."

Plummer has his way with the Raider secondary, throwing for two TDs and 256 yards. Champ Bailey sticks to Moss like Afro-Sheen, holding Moss to a frustrating three catch, 40-yard day. Moss moons the Denver crowd and walks off the field in the third quarter.

Broncos win, 34-6.

Chicago @ Arizona

Monday Night Football makes its first trip to Arizona since 1999 as the 5-0 Bears face the 1-4 Cardinals in what is sure to be a four-star matchup (out of 10). The Bears lead the NFL in scoring offense and scoring defense.

"By golly," chirps Arizona head coach and rotund person Dennis Green, "how can you outscore them when you can't even score?"

Is that some kind of riddle, Dennis? If I answer correctly, will the sphinx remove its curse?

Lovie Smith and company will attempt to go to 6-0 in front of a national television audience and in brand new University of Phoenix Stadium.

"Wow! This is a fabulous facility," says Bears coach Lovie. "This turf is so soft, and a lovely shade of green. And those skyboxes look so luxurious, with such a fabulous view. Tell me, Dennis. Does the carpet match the drapes?"

I'm sure Green has no idea what you're talking about, Lovie. But he does know this: Matt Leinart is his quarterback. Leinart will get his second start in the wake of Kurt Warner's loss of all functioning motor skills. And if Leinart can master the Bears defense, then he can truly consider himself a real NFL starting quarterback. But that doesn't happen. Leinart has a shaky offensive line in front of him, and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is out. So it will be a tough day for Leinart, but a great learning experience, much like ballroom dancing class at USC.

Bears win, 29-9.

Although he doesn't make any during the game, Leinart makes a hot read afterwards at a downtown nightclub, and hooks up with two sets of identical twins.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:28 PM | Comments (1)

Awakening in Waco

Most college football seasons, underdog lover than I am, I end up hitching my star to some long-suffering, but briefly scrappy team. I declare them to be "back" or the latest Northwestern, Kansas State, or Virginia Tech, a team that is ready to crawl out from under the doormat.

Such teams seduce me, and then they jilt me at the altar. I will write an effusive column singing their praises, declare an upset-of-the-century in the making, and that's just when they lose 55-0 and pack it in for the season. Sometimes I will even lose a little wagering money in the process.

This year is no different, and if you've been paying attention, you know my new soon-to-be-ex is Baylor. Typically, they are one of the worst teams in a BCS conference, good for perhaps one conference victory every other year over a very embarrassed foe.

But last year, they showed a wee bit of life, and so I answered their personal ad. They've been among my picks of the week twice (winning once).

So let's take a look at the resume of my September-December romance. They have indeed built on last year's momentum, sitting at 2-0 in the Big 12 South. They're 3-3 overall, with all losses coming by 10 or less (including a home-defending Washington State team that people are starting to take a shining to after the USC game), and with a half-time lead in each. They lead the nation in takeaways, and are last in the nation in rushing. This week, they are playing the other 2-0 Big South team on the road, and on America's Superstation, TBS. That other team, of course, would be Texas, and Texas is giving 29 points.

We are due for some more upsets this year, or serious "scares" coming from out of nowhere. Arkansas broke the seal last week, and I want credit for calling it if Baylor keeps it close. Or at least, I don't want dumped, jilted, left behind 55-0 again. Baylor will keep it more than respectable.

My other picks (my pick on the left, home team in CAPS):

Last column: 3-2
Season overall: 8-7

Syracuse (+25) over WEST VIRGINIA

Syracuse is coming of a loss to Pitt but is markedly improved, and West Viriginia could potentially be rusty coming off a bye week, or could be looking ahead to Louisville. I see more of a 17-point victory here or thereabouts for the 'Eers.

Minnesota (+9.5) over MINNESOTA

Minnesota is far, far better than anyone the Badgers have played this year except Michigan, and the Gophers could be either extra-motivated by last week's injustice against Penn State, or they may pack it in. I think Glen Mason will steer them to the former.

KANSAS (-3) over Oklahoma State

I really don't understand this line. Kansas just lost a heartbreaker against Texas A&M (breaking a long home winning streak, and this one is in Lawrence), saw an outstanding comeback in Lincoln fall just short against the 'Huskers the week before, and they are only giving three to an Oklahoma State team that has done nothing this year?

WASHINGTON (-11) over Oregon State

Washington has been golden for me in my picks this year, and that doesn't even include last week at USC. Tyrone Willingham won't allow his team to suffer a letdown, and Oregon State is better than only Stanford in the Pac-10. Huskies in a blowout.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 2:13 PM | Comments (0)

October 11, 2006

NFL Week 6 Bye Report

So every week I play this football pool at work. It's two bucks a sheet, with the pot ranging from $700 to $1,200. Straight-up, winner take all. I make my picks on Thursdays, review them on Friday before handing them in. Along with a sheet of what I think will happen, I submit a "B sheet," switching the three or four games I'm the least sure about.

For my Week 5 bye sheet, I switch my original picks of Redskins/Cardinals/Steelers to Giants/Chiefs/Chargers. I got all the other games correct. I'm riding the perfect sheet with Denver on Monday night. Denver wins, so it comes down to the tie-breaker. I had 36. Final total was 16. I get nothing.

How could I be so stupid?

Here are ten things we learned from Week 5:

1. Right now, Chicago has the best offense-defense-special teams combination in the league. San Diego is second.

2. Either the Dolphins are about to implode or they're about to go on a backs-against-the-wall desperation run. I can't decide which.

3. The NFC East — where everybody beats everybody, and the only sure thing is Drew Bledsoe throwing picks against pressure.

4. Speaking of Bledsoe, they can't bench him for Tony Romo. They just can't. With all the T.O. nonsense, a QB controversy sinks this team for good and ends Bill Parcells' coaching career.

5. Speaking of coaching careers ending, think they can get Dennis Green on the NFL Network to replace Deion Sanders?

6. Reason #79 why TiVo is the greatest invention since television itself: fast-forwarding through the entire ESPN half-time show on Monday Night Football. I can't tell you how much pleasure I get out of not listening to Tom Jackson and Michael Irvin. (Side note: I hope Jackson gets scurvy of the rectum. I think Irvin already has it.)

7. Watching Mike Shanahan scheme against the Ravens defense in the first half reminded me of Russell Crowe as John Nash in A Beautiful Mind.

8. Has there ever been a less impressive 4-1 team than St. Louis? Only through the sheer ineptness of Kurt Warner and Brett Favre are they not 2-3.

9. Corey Simon is done, and so are the Colts' chances at getting through the AFC in the playoffs. Remember, they aren't just missing Simon from last year's defense. They also lost Larry Tripplett (Bills) and David Thornton (Titans) in free agency.

10. Lock of the week: Pittsburgh beats Kansas City at Heinz Field in Week 6. Here's betting the Steelers are 4-3 when they host Denver in Week 9.

On to the Week 6 Bye Report. For some reason, the NFL doesn't want to have bye teams in Week 10 anymore, so six teams will be off this and next week. Personally, I'd rather they got rid of the Week 3 bye instead of the Week 10 bye, but whatever. Cleveland, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and New England sit and watch this week.

Cleveland Browns

(1-4, 0-2 AFC North, last place)

Overview — I love the way this team plays. That doesn't mean they're any good, but they're far more entertaining to watch than the rest of the company they keep at the bottom of the league. Charlie Frye is teetering somewhere in between Trent Dilfer and pre-greatness Favre. I can't wait to watch this unfold.

Impact of the Bye — It really doesn't matter at this point. The fewer games they have to play without Leigh Bodden, the better, but it's not like they're trying to get healthy for the playoffs.

Outlook — With a brutal schedule remaining, they'll be fortunate to win three more games all season. But that's okay. This team was never meant to win in 2006. Give Phil Savage and Romeo Crennel another solid draft, and this is a great sleeper team for 2007, even better for 2008.

Green Bay Packers

(1-4, 1-1 NFC North, third place)

Overview — I hate to say it, but Favre is approaching Warner territory with his turnovers. It's just sad.

Impact of the Bye — It's time Mike McCarthy takes a step back and re-evaluates his plan for the future. He should spend this week identifying his core guys for next year and beyond, and game plan to get them experience. In that respect, this is probably a great time for a week off.

Outlook — There's a decent chance they are in position to look at Brady Quinn in the 2007 draft. If that time comes, they have to know what they have in Aaron Rogers. It's absolutely imperative they give him at lest 7-8 games to show if he can lead this team out of the darkness. That's the only good that comes out of this year. They should pull the trigger now with two weeks to prepare for Miami.

Indianapolis Colts

(5-0, 3-0 AFC South, first place)

Overview — Recap of the Titans' first drive on Sunday, all rushing: Travis Henry for 9 yards, offsides Indy, Henry for 5, LenDale White for 12, Henry for 5, Henry for 14, White for 19, Vince Young for 19. Touchdown. This was against Tennessee at home.

Impact of the Bye — Perfect. The defense is all banged up, and they need to find some way to shore up their run defense (166.8 ypg, 31st in the NFL). I'm not sure they can completely turn it around (this ain't baseball, where you can just trade for a top-line starter midway through the season), but getting the players they have healthy will help.

Outlook — I know they won the game, and 5-0 is 5-0, and blah blah blah. Let's see them do that and win against New England/Denver/Baltimore/San Diego. One of the few constants in the NFL: You can't win in the playoffs if you can't stop the run. Until they fix that, this is a 12-4/11-5 team with one-and-done written all over it.

Side note: Remember when the Colts gave Adam Vinatieri a five-year, $12 million contract with a $3.5 million signing bonus? In retrospect, it's another reason why the Pats' strict adherence to their player value system makes them the smartest front office in the league.

Side note to the side note: My first son is due to be born this Thursday morning (10/12). His name will be Adam. That's going to be his name because when Vinatieri lined up for the FG against the Rams, I swore to God if he made it I would name my first son after him. I hesitated when Vinatieri signed with the Colts, but a promise is a promise. Can't have him being born under a bad sign.

Anyway...

Jacksonville Jaguars

(3-2, 0-1 AFC South, second place)

Overview — Well, they sure went into the break with a bang, demolishing Chad Pennington and the Jets. They beat the teams they should, but haven't broken through with the big road win. The Byron Leftwich/Reggie Williams connection is looking more solid by the week, and Maurice Jones-Drew is having a Willie Parker effect on the offense. Too bad their season is doomed by the loss of middle linebacker Mike Peterson.

Impact of the Bye — The defense is beat up, and they're coming off a resounding beating of the Jets, so this is a great time to rest up and get ready for the rest of the season. It'll be probably be less relaxing for Jack Del Rio, who has to figure out how to play defense without the guy who held everything together.

Outlook — I hate to harp on an injury, but losing Peterson is like the Colts offense losing Peyton Manning. He made everybody around him better (smarter), and they are all going to get worse (dumber) without him. With a fairly easy schedule that includes only four remaining games against teams currently in line to make the playoffs (Eagles away, Giants/Colts/Patriots at home), they've got a chance to maybe slide into a six-seed. Past that, I don't see it.

Minnesota Vikings

(3-2, 1-1 NFC North, second place)

Overview —The quintessential embodiment of mediocrity, the Viking are just bad enough to fall down 17-3 at home against the Lions, and just good enough to come back and win. There's something missing from this team, but I can't put my finger on it. They're just so unexciting.

Impact of the Bye — Antoine Winfield is a vital player for this defense, and he played the Detroit game with a bad quad. Giving him a week to heal up is worth the bye in itself. Other than that, it allows first-year head coach Brad Childress a chance to step back and assess. Coming off a win (even a shaky one) is a good time for that.

Outlook — With Seattle/ New England/San Francisco up after the bye, they should be at least 4-4 with the meat of their schedule behind them. The current combined record of their second-half opponents is 15-25. Take out their Week 13 trip to Soldier Field, and the combined records falls to 10-25. Playoffs, probable. Playoff wins, not so much.

New England Patriots

(4-1, 3-0 AFC East, first place)

Overview —Things certainly haven't gone as smoothly as in past years, with the Deion Branch saga weighing everybody down, and the Brady Face making more appearances than usual. But all things considered, a 4-1 record with wins over each of their division opponents is a fine result for the first third of the season. The running game is playoff quality, and Doug Gabriel looks like an emerging player. The only major concern right now is whether Stephen Gostkowski can shake off a rocky start and gain some consistency before the weather turns.

Impact of the Bye — Bill Belichick on Wednesday: "Today is one of my favorite days of the year. We have a little bit of extra time to get in and coach good, solid football. It's not really a big game-planning day and you don't feel like it's a normal kind of rat race that you have on Wednesday when you're trying to get a lot of stuff ready and get a lot of things done. You feel like you can take a little more time, really be thorough, do a good job of explaining the points you're trying to get across, and really improve your football team today and tomorrow as we get ready for Buffalo."

Translation: Take the Pats in Week 7.

Outlook — If it wasn't clear before Buffalo and the Jets lost by a combined score of 81-7 in Week 5, it should be crystal by now: New England will win the AFC East. Beyond that, it's an issue of matchups and home-field advantage in the playoffs. Right now, I'd say San Diego is No. 1, followed by Denver, New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh, in that order. (Maybe Kansas City leapfrogs one or two teams, but not enough to make the show.)

Playlist of the Week

(Available on iTunes)

1. The Wedge – The Challengers
2. Fearless – Pink Floyd
3. Dance to the Music – Sly & The Family Stone
4. Modern Man – Bad Religion
5. Sir Psycho Sexy – Red Hot Chili Peppers
6. Fade Into You – Mazzy Star
7. Straight, No Chaser – Thelonious Monk
8. Mother's Little Helper – Rolling Stones
9. Ruby Soho – Rancid
10. Come on Eileen – Dexy's Midnight Runners

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 8:50 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 30

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jeff Burton — A flat tire on the race's final restart cost Burton a lap and nearly all of his points lead as he finished 27th at Talladega. Burton entered the race with a 69-point lead; he leaves with only six points separating he and second-place Matt Kenseth.

"I guess it could have been worse," says Burton. "I could have been in front of Brian Vickers. If he treats a teammate like that, God only knows what he'd do to a non-teammate. So they banned him from Hendrick meetings, huh? Looks like the divorce just got messier."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth lead 21 laps on his way to an incident-free fourth-place finish at Talladega, and closed the gap on points leader Jeff Burton to six points. Kenseth now trails Burton by merely six points.

"I'm totally content to sit back and let flat tires and teammates-wrecking-teammates pave my way to the title," says Kenseth. "Through all the smoke, debris, sheet metal parts, and tire scraps, the view was great."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick overcame a wreck midway through Sunday's UAW-Ford 500 at Talladega, then made it through the last-lap carnage to score a sixth-place finish. He moves up one spot in the standings to fourth, and is only 33 behind Jeff Burton.

"My teammates and I have a standing agreement," says Harvick. "If one of us wrecks the other for a win, then we fight. But the point is moot. I would never even think of wrecking a teammate for the win. I wouldn't think, I'd just do it."

4. Mark Martin — Martin finished eighth at Talladega and led two laps to remain fourth in the points, where he trails Jeff Burton by 10 points.

"The lead changed at Talladega about as much as mind has changed about retirement," says Martin. "Currently, I've agreed to drive a limited schedule for MB2 Motorsports next year. Check with me next week to see if that is still the plan."

5. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin fell three places in the points, but actually cut 18 points off of Burton's points lead. Hamlin was involved in two crashes on Sunday, but still salvaged a 21st-place finish to stay in the hunt.

"It wasn't a good day for teammate-to-teammate relations," says Hamlin. "First, David Stremme starts a crash that spins my teammate J.J. Yeley, who collects my other teammate, Tony Stewart, and myself. Then, there was some minor incident at the end of the race with Brian Vickers and Jimmie Johnson."

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Leading on the final lap, Earnhardt was sent spinning when Brian Vickers bumped second-place Jimmie Johnson, sending the No. 48 into Earnhardt's No. 8. As Vickers raced to his first Nextel Cup win, Earnhardt and Johnson ended up in the infield grass, with a newfound hatred for Vickers.

"How's that for a 'Wrangler Five-Star Finish?'" says Earnhardt. "Actually, I don't fault Brian at all. I do fault my fans for tossing beer cans at Brian's car. Therefore, I must make a plea to all fans of the No. 8 Chevrolet: please recycle."

7. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson was in position for a finish of no worse than second when he dove underneath race leader Dale Earnhardt, Jr. He was bumped from behind by teammate Brian Vickers and sent into Earnhardt, and both spun to the infield. Vickers went on to win; Johnson finished 24th.

"Let me make a prediction for the 2007 season opener in Daytona," says Johnson. "Brian Vickers won't finish the race, Team Red Bull will be working overtime in the garage, and I'll be in Mike Helton's office afterwards."

8. Jeff Gordon — With 50 laps to go, Gordon was sucked into a wreck triggered by contact between Carl Edwards and Joe Nemechek. Gordon went quickly from a favorite to a 36th-place finish that all but ended his title hopes. He is now 147 out of first. Gordon vented his frustration by criticizing Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s bump-drafting technique.

"When in doubt, blame someone besides yourself," says Gordon, "just like in politics. Of course, it was great when Little E was bump-drafting me into the lead. Maybe that's why I'm blaming him; he wasn't behind me enough."

9. Kasey Kahne — Kahne navigated the last-lap shenanigans and brought home his best finish of the Chase so far, a second. Still, his deficit to the points leader is 185.

"The good news is," says Kahne, "I finished in front of everyone ahead of me in the points. The bad news is, everyone is ahead of me in the points."

10. Kyle Busch — It was an up-and-down day for Hendrick drivers. Up: Brian Vickers. Down: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon. Busch fell in the middle somewhere, finishing 11th at Talladega and leading 10 laps. He is 185 points behind points leader Jeff Burton.

"Our next drivers' meeting will be quite interesting," says Busch. "By the way, Jimmie's requested that Brian be allowed in the meetings. He's also asked that no one else be present, and the meeting to take place in an octagon-shaped room, preferably caged."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:28 PM | Comments (0)

October 10, 2006

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* I absolutely do not understand how teams that limp into the MLB playoffs always win their first series.

* I hate NBC's pre-game song, which seems to last about eight minutes, even more than that tired Hanks Williams, Jr., crap on MNF.

* Terrell Owens is scared to get hit. I've never seen a receiver pull up from so many catchable balls.

* Lots of injuries this week, but none that I saw of what is becoming one of the most common ways for players to be hurt: defenders giving themselves concussions with monster hits. Guys, taking care of your head is way more important than getting on "Jacked Up".

* NFL Network has terrible analysts. Especially Jamie Dukes.

***

We're only a third of the way through the season, but people are already starting to talk MVPs, and a name you'll hear a lot is Donovan McNabb's. Besides being a great player, McNabb remains one of the classiest guys in the league, refusing to get caught up in the drama that accompanied this week's game against the Cowboys.

While McNabb and Brian Westbrook — in that order — key Philadelphia's offense, which ranks first in the league, this is a complete team. The defense is full of stars, many of whom had big games against Dallas, and don't forget special teams. Everyone knows David Akers, who has been one of the NFL's best kickers for years now, but the Eagles also have incredible kick coverage. Andy Reid and his special teams coaches, John Harbaugh and Ryan Segrest, deserve credit for that.

Good offense is nice, and good defense is nice, and good special teams are nice, but the best teams have all three. One or another can only get you so far, and balance wins a lot of ballgames. On to the power rankings. Brackets show previous rank.

1. Chicago Bears [1] — Lead the NFL in points scored per game and points allowed per game. They've won four of their five matchups by more than 25 points. Lovie Smith was a top coordinator for years before he got his chance as a head coach, but teams kept taking guys like Dennis Erickson and Norv Turner instead. Chicago's defensive coordinator, Ron Rivera, interviewed for head coaching jobs with a number of teams last winter, but no one hired him. A lot of owners and general managers should be kicking themselves right now, because they made a big mistake passing on these guys.

2. Indianapolis Colts [2] — This is not the same team that opened last season 13-0. The Colts finally had a good day rushing the football, but poor run defense continues to plague them. On Sunday, Indianapolis allowed Travis Henry his first 100-yard rushing game in three years, and the Colts are the only team with a winning record to allow 100 points this season.

3. Cincinnati Bengals [3] — The division is up for grabs. With Pittsburgh vulnerable and Baltimore unable to generate points, the defending AFC North champs are probably still the team to beat. Cincinnati is already 2-0 in the division, including a win at Pittsburgh. The next three games, however, are all against opponents from the NFC South.

4. Philadelphia Eagles [5] — Three straight games with over 30 points, but they're still not running well and only converted two of 12 third downs against the Cowboys. As sensational as McNabb has been, this team is built on its defense. The Eagles are the strongest team in the NFC East right now, and they look very similar to the Philadelphia teams that made four consecutive NFC Championship Games.

5. San Diego Chargers [6] — Converted more than half their third downs against Pittsburgh. That tells you not only that the Chargers used LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner effectively to set up third-and-short, but also that Philip Rivers made some plays on third-and-long. San Diego's defense may be the best in the AFC, with Jamal Williams and Shawne Merriman already looking like Pro Bowl locks.

6. Denver Broncos [9] — Tatum Bell had a nice game, Javon Walker made some plays, and no one doubts the defense. But the Broncos don't look like they can throw the ball. Mike Shanahan clearly had very little faith in Jake Plummer against the Ravens, and when he did throw, Plummer often seemed to make poor decisions or bad throws. The Ravens can make opposing offenses look bad, but Denver's problem clearly goes beyond that.

7. Baltimore Ravens [4] — Last season, the Ravens went 0-8 on the road. So far this year, they're 2-1, but those victories came against 0-4 Tampa Bay and the 1-4 Browns. Until further notice, this team still has trouble away from home, and the offense still stinks. It ranks 29th in yards per game, and Steve McNair is averaging under 200 yards through the air, with more interceptions than touchdowns. Honestly, I'm afraid I have Denver and Baltimore overrated.

8. Seattle Seahawks [7] — Coming off the bye, they have a key division game at 4-1 St. Louis. Two years ago, a loss against the Rams sent Seattle into a tailspin that culminated in a first-round playoff exit at home against the Rams, the third time they'd beaten the Seahawks that season. The Week 6 game is in St. Louis, and a win is critical for Seattle.

9. New England Patriots [10] — Tom Brady still isn't putting up big numbers, and his 82.6 passer rating is a career-low, but he isn't making mistakes, either. Brady has only one interception in his last three games, and with New England's defense playing well, his most important job right now is to avoid sacks and turnovers. The passing game will need to be a weapon if the Patriots are going to be a factor this postseason, but at the moment they're playing smart football and winning with defense.

10. New York Giants [12] — The defense has struggled this season, but it was dominant on Sunday, holding Washington to 86 net passing yards. Tiki Barber had a good game on the ground, and the coaches effectively exploited Washington's injury-depleted secondary. At 2-0 in the NFC East and with two of their toughest non-division games out of the way, the Giants should be fairly pleased with their early-season results.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars [11] — Playing without Marcus Stroud, they still turned in arguably the most dominant defensive performance of the 2006 season. The Jags' pass defense was especially impressive, tallying six sacks, three interceptions, and only 71 passing yards allowed. Jacksonville would be ranked in the top 10, except that Mike Peterson, probably the best middle linebacker in the NFL, is out for the season, and that's a big loss for this team.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — Some people will be upset that I've ranked the 1-3 Steelers ahead of the 4-1 Saints and Rams, but look at the schedules they've played. Pittsburgh has a must-win game at home against Kansas City in Week 6, and fans will be watching Ben Roethlisberger very closely. The Steelers played well for a half on Sunday night, but came out totally flat after the break, and Big Ben in particular made some costly mistakes. The defense still looks good, but the offense — which lost some key contributors this offseason — doesn't seem to have any rhythm or identity.

13. Atlanta Falcons [14] — John Abraham should be back soon, making an already-strong defense even more dangerous. Great defense and a strong running game is a reliable formula for success in the NFL, but if they want to be serious contenders, at some point the Falcons need to develop a passing attack. Right now they rank 31st in passing yards, behind everyone but Oakland, and Michael Vick's passer rating is below 70, trailing J.P. Losman, Jon Kitna, and Daunte Culpepper.

14. New Orleans Saints [13] — Here's why I have the 4-1 Saints rated near the middle of the pack: they've only played one really good game. The Saints were terrific against Atlanta on MNF, but they've been ordinary in their other four games, with a loss at Carolina and three close wins against bad teams.

15. Minnesota Vikings [15] — Nice defensive performance against the Lions, with five sacks, five takeaways, and only 16 rushing yards allowed. This team could give people some real trouble around playoff time if the offense gets more explosive. Chester Taylor had a season-high 123 rushing yards against Detroit, and Brad Johnson isn't going to make a lot of mistakes, but the offense still lacks a real playmaker.

16. Dallas Cowboys [16] — It's easy to point fingers at Drew Bledsoe, and after his four-turnover performance against the Eagles, he deserves them. But let's not forget that Dallas also had a special teams turnover and allowed McNabb to pass for 354 yards, with two TDs and no interceptions. Tony Romo can't fix those things.

17. Kansas City Chiefs [17] — Solidly middle of the road, losing to good teams and winning against bad ones. Damon Huard has been impressive while Trent Green is out, but what happened to KC's running game against the Cardinals? Chiefs running backs combined for just 38 yards and a 2.0 average, with no rushing first downs. I don't know the last time Kansas City didn't have a first down on the ground, but I'm guessing it was around 1962.

18. Carolina Panthers [18] — Beat Cleveland despite going 0-for-11 on third downs. On first and second down, however, the Panthers were effective, as DeShaun Foster posted a season-high rushing total and Jake Delhomme recorded his third consecutive game with a passer rating over 90. Carolina has two tough AFC North road games coming up.

19. St. Louis Rams [22] — Beat the Broncos and lost to the 49ers. Those games cancel each other out. In the other three, they've beaten the Cardinals, Lions, and Packers by a collective average of four points. Those teams are 2-13, combined. Compare that with New Orleans, whose victories have come by an average of nine points against teams who are a combined 5-13. If the Rams beat Seattle in Week 6, though, they'll make the top half of the rankings.

20. New York Jets [20] — Embarrassed against Jacksonville, but they've had four reasonably impressive games, beating the Titans and Bills and giving the Patriots and Colts all they could handle. The Jets have a very soft schedule for the next few weeks, and should go into their bye week at 5-3. I say they have another off week at some point and it's 4-4 instead.

21. Buffalo Bills [21] — The receiving corps is Lee Evans, and everyone else. Evans has a third of the team's receptions this year (28), almost as many as all the other wide receivers combined (39), and more than all of the running backs and tight ends (18). I don't know if J.P. Losman doesn't have any other weapons or is just afraid to use them, but the offense can't be successful leaning this heavily on Willis McGahee and Evans. The situation is similar to Washington, where the offense continues to be Clinton Portis and Santana Moss.

22. Washington Redskins [19] — The team as a whole, and Mark Brunell in particular, have had two good games and three bad ones, without much middle ground. I'm inclined to regard the bad Washington as the real one. One good game was against Houston, taking advantage of a weak opponent, and the other, against Jacksonville, was probably a bit of a fluke.

23. Miami Dolphins [23] — Their only win was at home against the Titans, and I would move them significantly lower in the rankings if there were room, but everyone from this spot down is truly awful. I do think Nick Saban made the right move by going with Joey Harrington at quarterback, at least for now.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Ranking an 0-4 team outside the bottom quarter of the league does not make me happy, especially since I've expressed pessimism about Tampa's remaining schedule, but there's at least potential here. Bruce Gradkowski had an impressive starting debut, and the offense turned in its best performance of the season, but the Bucs' once-great defense has been a disappointment so far, ranking near the bottom of the league in both sacks and interceptions.

25. Green Bay Packers [24] — Everyone talks about Brett Favre, but this team's biggest problem is its defense, which ranks 31st. The Packers have played two top offenses (Chicago and Philadelphia), but they've also given up big numbers against teams with mediocre offenses (Detroit and St. Louis). Green Bay is already in a soft part of its schedule (November looks like 0-4 waiting to happen), so there's not a lot of room for optimism.

26. Arizona Cardinals [25] — Matt Leinart looked good in his first NFL start, but Larry Fitzgerald was injured in the loss, and will miss a minimum of two weeks. That's a major loss for the Leinart and the Cardinals, and will put added pressure on Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson, the latter of whom needs to step up in Fitzgerald's absence.

27. Cleveland Browns [27] — Haven't scored 20 points on anyone but Oakland. The Browns passed 43 times on Sunday, versus 21 handoffs, despite that Carolina never led by more than two touchdowns. Charlie Frye had his worst game of the season, with three turnovers and a 49.9 rating. Reuben Droughns should be healthy after the bye, and he needs to be more involved in the gameplan.

28. San Francisco 49ers [28] — The Battle of the Bay came down to turnovers. In a fairly equal game — Oakland probably had the edge, honestly — San Francisco was +4 in turnovers, and that will win almost every time. Frank Gore led the team in rushing and receiving yards, and Alex Smith threw three TD passes, but the Niners' hero was cornerback Walt Harris, who grabbed three interceptions.

29. Detroit Lions [29] — They've been in every game (except against the Bears, but that doesn't count at this point), but can't win. The defense has been terrible, ranking 28th in yards allowed, and the Lions have given up 141 points this season, more than anyone but San Francisco. Over the last four weeks that figure is even worse, with an average of 33 points allowed.

30. Houston Texans [30] — I know I said this last week, but I can't get over their schedule. The Texans play on the road in four of their next five games, and six of the next eight. In Weeks 9-13, they go to Jacksonville, New York (twice), and Oakland. That's about 11,000 miles (round-trip) in five weeks, with games in three different time zones.

31. Tennessee Titans [32] — Averaging 12 points per game, better than only the Raiders. Vince Young had some success running the ball, but somehow managed to average just three yards per pass attempt, which is so bad I don't have an adjective strong enough to describe it. The defense, minus Albert Haynesworth, did a nice job of limiting Peyton Manning and his receivers.

32. Oakland Raiders [31] — On a weekend in which several QBs had successful starting debuts, Andrew Walter was the exception. That's the way this season is going for the Raiders, who have lost to two bad teams and gotten blown out by two good ones. I feel bad for Art Shell, even though this is partially his fault.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:49 PM | Comments (0)

The Greatest Thing in All His Life

I sat mere inches from his feet as he sang to me. His wrinkled skin was elegant, his worn out hands were a relic. Buck O'Neil was singing to me.

O'Neil died Friday night. It caught me off-guard. The world lost a great man. He was 94.

When someone asks me about the most important person I'd ever touched, I would say my mother. Buck told me to say it.

When someone asks me about the most important speech I'd ever attended, I would say my graduation speech. Buck told me graduating from school holds incredible value.

But when someone asks me about the most beautiful voice I'd ever heard, I'll tell them about Buck O'Neil. I'll tell them about the time he made eye-contact with me through his sunglasses and sang, "The greatest thing ... in all my life ... is loving you..."

He sang to me, and just me. He sang me this song as I looked up at him like he was a grandfather. I was convinced that the greatest thing in Buck's life was loving me.

But he's taught this song to thousands of people. Thousands of people have sang this song in unison. When Buck finally made it onto TV with this song, I was jealous. I liked the feeling of feeling loved, but now, I felt like it was just a song he sang to make people engage in his speech. I felt like I had been betrayed.

Yet betrayal is for the selfish, and O'Neil was not selfish. He was denied everything he ever wanted in life, so when he grew older, he worked to make sure no one else was ever denied their wants — an education, a job and ultimately, happiness.

I realized Buck really was singing to me. But at the same time, he was singing to every other person in that audience. He cared about all of them. Each person meant something to him.

He sang that song for a reason. People love to be loved. And when he teaches others that song, he doesn't only give others his love, but he shows everyone else the importance of loving one another.

The impact of his death will pass, and the impact of his message will most likely pass with it. It's just how this society seems to work.

But maybe, just once, we can listen to Buck. Maybe this time, we can stand up at a speech 20 years later and say, "A wise man once sang a song to me. It went something like this..."

Posted by Alvin Chang at 3:23 PM | Comments (0)

October 9, 2006

Being Lifted in Spirit

It's amazing how déjà vu works. It could as faint as a dream or as real as a pinch. The fact that it exists connects us all with time.

You believe that?

All right, all right, all right. I'll stop with the John Edwards-ish talk. But you do have to admit that something might be eerily resurfacing after a few days of the MLB playoffs.

Let me take you back, way back, to this time last year. After leading the AL Central for the entire season, the "surprising" Chicago White Sox felt their hearts clinch when they lost game after game. Cleveland went lightning hot, pulling even with, not to mention passing, the Southsiders. Everything came down to the last weekend of the season, when Chicago stole the series and the division from the Indians.

Many, including myself, thought that Chicago was a sinking ship. They'd have trouble against the defending champion Red Sox. Even with all of their pitching, Beantown had the bats and the know-how to get back to the ALCS. Boy, did I miss that one. Not only did the ChiSox chase the champs back to Boston, but they romped through the postseason to the club's first title since 1917 (or in other lingo, since the old, old, old-school days).

Zip forward to about 10 days ago. In '06, it's been the new "surprise" of the AL Central, the Detroit Tigers, stealing the headlines. Jim Leyland came in and whipped the Motown youngsters into a frenzy. They led the division since day one. The city had a fervor not seen in two decades. Then the wheels started to wobble.

Placido Polanco got hurt. The defense had their old Keystone Kops aura of the recent past. Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson, and Jeremy Bonderman struggled through September. A 10-game lead shriveled steadier than Shrinky Dinks on a good day.

And it didn't end like the '05 White Sox. The Tigers lost the division. They lost it to the Minnesota Twins. They lost it by virtue of a sweep at the hands of Kansas City (that's one on the Royal Pride list for those counting at home). They backed into the playoffs through the wildcard. They had to play the New York Yankees.

The overwhelming consensus was that Detroit needed to win Game 1 of the ALDS to have a chance. They didn't. Series over, Tigers done.

Well, it looks like we all just got served. An efficient outing by Verlander helped the visitors swipe one in the Bronx. That was followed up by the brilliant artistry of Kenny Rogers and Bonderman in Games 3 and 4. Series over, Yankees done, Tigers move on.

Then again, there is another story that is more similar to the '05 White Sox. That would be the NL Central Champions from St. Louis. The Cardinals' situation was even gloomier. The Redbirds had a seven-game cushion with less than two weeks to go. Then, the Houston Astros woke up. Roy Oswalt was lights out, Andy Pettite returned to stellar form, and position players decided to score a run or two.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals couldn't buy a win. The injury list continued to pile up, from David Eckstein to Mark Mulder to Jason Isringhausen. The team couldn't escape the brooms in a four-game series at Houston. The state of doom rose as high as the Arch. However, St. Louis has Albert Pujols and, apparently, Scott Spiezio. Those two were enough for the new Busch Stadium to celebrate another playoff experience.

Just days later, the Cardinals have turned everyone on their ears. Good outings from Chris Carpenter (two of them) and Jeff Weaver (didn't see that coming) pushed the Redbirds to a 3-1 series win over San Diego. Now heading to their third straight NLCS appearance, they are beginning to look a little more like those Chi Sox of 12 months ago.

You know, with all this new-found success, maybe we should start thinking of a Motown/Arch tilt. Wonder if MLB management will let me name it the "Salvage from the brink of disaster" Series. Don't think so? Well, it was worth a shot.

Addendum

The Sports Central website gives us an opportunity to get on a soapbox from time to time. This time, I'm pulling out my extra large crate to stand upon.

On Friday night, I found out that an extraordinary connection to baseball left our world. Buck O'Neil was a Kansas City sports icon. My hometown has had some great professional athletes over its history. Satchel Paige, Len Dawson, Tom Watson, George Brett, and Derrick Thomas are widely known for their accomplishments in K.C.

Buck O'Neil is known for what he did for all of baseball. A batting champion, successful manager, and overall champion for the Kansas City Monarchs of the Negro Leagues. The first black scout in Major League Baseball. The first black coach in Major League Baseball. The best orator and biggest connection (in my opinion) for future generations about the Negro Leagues. He was the definition of a living legend.

He had a magic that would envelope anyone. Whenever you heard him on local radio or saw him interviewed on TV, you would tune in. His enthusiasm, sincerity, and love of the game had an effect on all that heard him. For me, all I could do was smile and listen to every word.

I had the amazing chance to meet him one day a few years ago. My father and I were out at our area driving range to hit golf balls and happened upon Mr. O'Neil in the parking lot. I told him how much of a pleasure it was to meet him and shook his hand. He was gracious enough to sign the back of one of my dad's business cards before we went our separate ways. I don't know if I still have the card, but I know the memory will always stay with me.

My biggest regret is that I have yet to visit the Negro League Hall of Fame that he helped construct in K.C.'s historic 18th and Vine District. That's shame on me. I intend to correct it, but it's much too little, much too late.

This year, Buck had the opportunity to enter the Hall of Fame. However, baseball's committee to elect Negro and pre-Negro League players and personnel kept him out by one vote. Some claimed he didn't have the numbers to warrant his admittance. That's shame on Major League Baseball. Historic significance has no numeral attached. O'Neil has more than enough of that, and it didn't get recognized.

Most didn't recognize or acknowledge the man's presence and importance until he was featured in Ken Burns' Baseball. That's shame on all of us. Fortunately, Mr. O'Neil wouldn't expect or revel in it. He was humble, he was full of life, and he was the meaning of dignified. Rest in peace, Buck O'Neil. You won't be forgotten.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:00 PM | Comments (0)

October 7, 2006

Early NFL Disappointments

Most teams in the NFL are a quarter of the way through their season (four games). Now, I know it might be a little early to start talking about busts and disappointments, but it might be interesting to look at a few players and teams who have not lived up to expectations.

No position is more susceptible to hype and the resulting disappointment than quarterback. They feel the pressure like no one else and they garner the fame and shoulder the blame more than is probably warranted. Such is life in the NFL. I know a lot can change in the next 12 games, but the 2006 season has already produced some rather big disappointments. Below, I discuss three quarterbacks who have disappointed fans so far and have dug a hole for their respective teams.

Daunte Culpepper and the Miami Dolphins

Maybe this is colored by the fact that I own Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers in my fantasy football league, but I think it is safe to say that Culpepper and the 'Fins have not lived up to expectations. The Dolphins were supposed to contend for the division title after a strong finish in 2005. With the Patriots getting older, and seemingly without the necessary talent at wide receiver, Miami was primed to make a run in the AFC East.

The season so far hasn't exactly played out that way:

* Despite leading in the third quarter, the Dolphins lost their opening game 28-17 to a Charlie Batch led Pittsburgh Steelers. Culpepper threw for 262 yards, but had two key interceptions, one that was run back for a score, and no touchdowns.

* The next week in a loss to Buffalo, he again reached 250 yards, but had again an interception, was sacked seven times, and only managed to score a touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the game.

* Against what can only be described as a pathetic Tennessee team, Culpepper was worse: 168 yards, five sacks, and no TDs. The only consolation was he didn't throw an interception and they won the game, 13-10.

* As if struggling against the Titans wasn't bad enough, last week the Dolphins managed to lose to the lowly Houston Texans! Following in his typical pattern, Culpepper had 249 yards, was sacked five times, and threw his first TD pass with less than two minutes to go.

Clearly, Culpepper is not the same mobile QB he was when he had so much success in Minnesota. He seems the same error-prone and erratic gunslinger he was last year before he got hurt. The Miami offensive line can't seem to protect him and teams are loading up against the run and coming after Culpepper. In the loss to Houston, Chambers had one catch for 14 yards. Granted, it was a touchdown, but that is simply not enough touches for a receiver of Chambers' talents.

Having lost to Buffalo already, the 'Fins now face two divisional games on the road. A loss Sunday against the Patriots would put them in a deep hole. Miami proved last year they can turn things around — winning their last six games — but if they want to make the playoffs, Culpepper is going to have to improve significantly and fast. I am not holding my breath.

Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals

Here is another team and QB that had high expectations coming into the season. There were a number of prognosticators who felt the Cards were on their way up this year and were a sleeper to make the playoffs. With a fearsome receiving core in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, and the addition of Edgerrin James at running back, big things were expected of the Arizona offense. Add in a brand new stadium and the drafting of Matt Leinart and things were finally looking up in the desert.

After a shootout win against San Francisco in the opening game, things seemed to be going according to plan. Warner had 300 yards passing, three touchdowns, and no picks. James rushed for 73 and a score. But realistically, the Cards had to scrape to beat one of the worst teams in the league — not usually a good sign.

True to form, things went down hill fast.

* The next week the Cards didn't score until the fourth quarter in a 21-10 loss to the Seahawks. Warner had 231 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Neither Boldin or Fitzgerald found the endzone and James had 64 yards rushing.

* Warner's downward spiral escalated against the Rams as he threw three picks and fumbled the ball on the St. Louis 18-yard line — costing his team a chance to win the game. Ironically, Rams QB Marc Bulger had fumbled to give Arizona the ball and a chance to win. Who greased the ball in that game?

* Warner gave up his starting spot after another horrendous outing the next week against the Falcons: two fumbles, an interception, and a mere 128 yards passing. Coach Denny Green had seen enough and benched Warner with 13 minutes remaining. Leinart didn't fare much better with a fumble and an interception in little over a dozen pass attempts.

So here we have a team with an amazing array of talent and yet hasn't scored more than 14 points in the last three games. Let me go out on a limb here and guess that maybe an effective offensive line is necessary to succeed in the NFL. This crucial fact was often on the lips of those who doubted the rebirth of the Cardinals just because they brought in Edgerrin James.

Fantasy players around the country now lament their drafting of Boldin, Fitzgerald, James and yes even Kurt Warner. It is hard to believe that many saw Warner as a fantasy gem, but it's sadly true. Most rookie QBs would love to have the wideouts Leinart does, but you have to wonder if this is really the best way to groom a franchise quarterback. I am guessing the Cardinals continue to struggle.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers

Long-time readers of this site will know that I frequently write about my favorite team, the reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Some may want to call me a "homer" for my team, but I strive to be honest and as objective as I can. I also frequently note my biases. Heck, that is better than ESPN most weeks.

It is in the spirit of this honesty that I have to list the Steelers as a disappointment so far. There is no doubt it is hard to keep the focus and hunger after a Super Bowl winning season, and outside circumstances haven't helped, but a 1-2 start certainly wasn't expected.

It is hard to blame all of the Steelers' trouble on the quarterback. Special teams has been a big weakness for sure. It is also worth noting that Roethlisberger is coming off the offseason of hell. A potentially fatal motorcycle accident and an emergency appendectomy are not ideal experiences for a quarterback heading into the season. Perhaps because of this mind-bogglingly bad offseason, Roethlisberger missed the opening game win against Miami and proceeded to lose the his first two games.

Whatever the reason, he is simply not playing very well:

* In his opening game against Jacksonville Roethlisberger passed for a mere 141 yards, threw two picks, and failed to find the end zone. As a result, the Steelers got shutout by the Jaguars 9-0.

* The following week the Steelers offense got back on track, but Ben threw three interceptions in a heartbreaking loss to division rival Cincinnati. In a game eerily similar to last year's game in Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger's turnovers — particularly the early pick in the end zone — were back breakers. Granted, Richard Colclough's late game muffed punt return and the fumble by Veron Haynes were killers, and the dropped passes didn't help, but Roethlisberger failed to make some critical plays when the game was on the line.

It seems obvious that Roethlisberger was rusty after a crazy offseason and little playing time in preseason. Two of his interceptions in the Bengal game seemed to have been cause by both a combination of misreading the secondary and misjudging the swirling wind. His arm strength is clearly not what it was last year.

After only three games, the Steelers are already under the gun because of the tough nature of their division. The division-leading Baltimore Ravens are undefeated with their typically tough defense and a renewed confidence under QB Steve McNair. The Bengals are heading into the bye week smarting from a 38-13 loss to the New England Patriots, but they are still 3-1 and loaded with talent on offense. Thus, Steelers are sharing the basement with the Cleveland Browns.

The good news is the Steelers obviously have the talent to turn things around. Roethlisberger is likely to shake the rust off and running back Willie Parker seems to be back on track behind the veteran offensive line. The defense is tough as always and should get even better when star Troy Polamolu gets back to full health. If Ben can get on the same page with his receivers, and the receivers can manage to hang onto the ball, the Steelers should be able to return to their winning ways. Roethlisberger just needs to remember that he doesn't need to win games single-handedly, but rather manage the game plan.

The Steelers always seem to play better when their back is up against the wall and it all starts Sunday night against San Diego. A win will allow them to build some momentum and regain their confidence. A loss, however, means an awfully big hole in a very competitive division. If a team's fourth game of the season can be considered a "must-win" this would qualify.

With a solid offensive line and good defense, the Steelers are probably better positioned to make the playoffs than the Cardinals or Dolphins, but improved quarterback play will be critical to each team's chances. Warner has already been yanked and one has to wonder how long before Joey Harrington gets a chance to lead the Miami offense. I can't imagine Nick Saban wants to be forced to bench Culpepper, but he also can't afford to let the season slip away.

I also can't imagine Charlie Batch is any threat to unseat Roethlisberger, but if the Steelers are to have any chance to get to the Super Bowl, he will have to cut out the mistakes and turnovers. For all three teams, the next few games could very well determine if these QBs just got off to a rough start or if the entire season is destined to be one of disappointment. Stay tuned.

Posted by Kevin Holtsberry at 10:55 PM | Comments (0)

Hockey Cynic's Guide to the West

Don't miss part one of The Hockey Cynic's Guide to the NHL East!

The power is shifting in the Campbell Conference, away from the holy trinity of Detroit, Dallas, and Colorado and over to the new breed of elite teams like Anaheim, San Jose, and Nashville. You can tell this is happening because the old guard is doing what anyone does when their power starts to slip, which is to act completely batty. Bringing in Dominik Hasek, signing Eric Lindros, pinning your hopes on Jose Theodore, preparing to invade Iran ... it's pretty much all the same thing.

Being the cynical bastard that I am, I bring you a preview of the 2006-07 NHL season and the Campbell Conference, explaining why every single team has virtually no chance of winning the Stanley Cup and why they're all pathetic messes.

The first half of the preview be found here, and thanks for all the kind words and feedback about it. As they say, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, so color me flattered, ESPN.com.

Here's the preview...

NORRIS DIVISION

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
(26-43-13; 4th in the Central Division; Glared disapprovingly whenever Nikolai Khabibulin would stare longingly at his championship ring.)

Talking about the Blackhawks is about as uncomfortable as watching Rep. Mark Foley working the room at a summer pool party for Congressional pages.

They're an Original Six team, damnit, and not one we all loathe like the Rangers or the Leafs; hell, they even made Chris Chelios seem cool for a few seasons.

They should not suck this badly for this long.

Unless you're from Detroit or St. Louis, you want to see the Blackhawks do well. Not because of some big-markets-make-the-NHL-work hooey, but because it's a shame the playoffs are deprived of the best-looking jerseys in hockey. The red ones, not the black ones.

But Chicago is once again a mess, and once again the blame is placed squarely on owner Bill Wirtz, who would be the worst owner in professional sports if Al Davis hadn't hired Art Shell this season. When you're discussing Bill Wirtz and the Blackhawks' futility, that discussion begins on WirtzSucks.com. It's a clearinghouse for Wirtz criticisms, horror stories, and updated news on how he's destroyed hockey in Chicago. Most of all, it provides a chance to sign up for the Bill Wirtz Countdown Contest, where fans can predict the day when he gives up control of the team. From the site:

"By no means should anyone ever wish death upon another human being (with maybe the exception of Osama Bin Ladin). However, it's inevitable that our time on this spinning space rock is limited and even long time Blackhawk owner Bill Wirtz cannot escape that reality (he was born October 5, 1929)."

Ouch!

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because the Bears have a more explosive offense, the Cubs have a better defense, and Bill Wirtz still owns the team.

Worst Case Scenario — Wirtz decides to give up control of the Blackhawks five years from now ... to the indestructible WirtzBot 3000 he programmed himself.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
(35-43-4; 3rd in the Central Division; By default.)

This is an important season for the Blue Jackets, and it should be a joyous one. Because the first time an expansion franchise completely rids itself of its inaugural set of goaltenders is truly a special time indeed.

Teams aren't supposed to win with Ron Tugnutt or Guy Hebert or Peter Sidorkiewicz. So sending Marc Denis, as good as he was, to Tampa and turning the team over to the homegrown Pascal Leclaire is like an expansion team's Bar Mitzvah.

Mazel Tov, my Meshuggina Mishpocha.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because coach Gerard Gallant is giving well-thought-out quotes like this one, to the Columbus Post-Dispatch: "I think other years there were more question marks than there are this year. This year, we know what we've got with most of our players. Obviously, there are still a few questions marks, guys we think are going to be good players, but when you bring in a guy like [Fredrik] Modin, when you bring a guy like [Anson] Carter, you know what they are."

Yeah, and we know what they are, too: overpaid.

Worst Case Scenario — The Blue Jackets improve by a dozen points ... and still miss the playoffs by a dozen points. A frustrated Nikolai Zherdev books a one-way ticket to Moscow.

DETROIT RED WINGS
(58-16-8; 1st in the Central Division; Watched Yzerman make the decision Brett Favre should have made.)

There once was a goalie named Dom;
Who was older than Moses's mom;
Ken Holland seemed happy;
Till the Wings, they got crappy;
Turned to Ossie because Dom was a bomb.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because, evidently, they may need Pavel Datsyuk to score a goal in the playoffs at some point.

Worst Case Scenario — The Red Wings are the best team in the regular season, fail to do anything in the postseason, and continue to be hockey's answer to Bobby Cox's Atlanta Braves.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS
(49-25-8; 2nd in the Central Division; Somehow made the playoffs with Yanic Perreault as their third-leading scorer.)

Thanks, Southeast Division. Thanks, Alberta, Canada. Thanks, formerly Mighty Anaheim Ducks. Because of what you've done in the last three Stanley Cup Finals, now everyone thinks they need to discover an out-of-left-field pick for the Cup when handicapping the season.

For many, Nashville might be that team. It's really all there for them: solid scoring forwards, one of the best collections of defenders in the NHL, a healthy Tomas Vokoun, and a trio of free agent signings that add even more veteran savvy to the team. (Say, that Jason Arnott fellow seems to play pretty well in the postseason.)

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because they're like a country band without a fiddle player. They're missing that one defensive defenseman who could tie it all together: an Aaron Ward or a Jay McKee type. Someone who leads by example, who can come out and disrupt an opposing power play by himself. Honestly, the rest of the lineup is borderline dynamic — but that's a gaping hole.

Worst Case Scenario — Nashville makes the postseason again ... and Chris Mason is the only healthy goalie, again.

ST. LOUIS BLUES
(21-46-15; 5th in the Central Division; Sucked more than a tricked-out Dyson.)

I still can't believe the pass John Davidson was given when he decided to take over as president of the Blues.

Yes, he knows the game. Yes, he's a great guy — so well-liked, in fact, that the mainstream hockey media gave him a journalistic lap dance as he settled in at the head of the boardroom table.

But did they ever even bother to mention those two little words that could put his hiring into perspective?

You know: "Matt" and "Millen."

Like Davidson, Millen made his bones as a color commentator after his playing days were over. Like Davidson, he quickly rose through the national broadcasting ranks, and like Davidson he was lauded for his candor and his enthusiasm for the game.

And then, like Davidson, he abruptly left TV to take over the operations of a professional sports franchise: the Detroit Lions, which he promptly crashed with the confused ardor of a drunken kamikaze pilot.

So with that track record, how long before the "Fire J.D." protests start in the Savvis Center?

And would St. Louis fans have the same open-armed reaction if Tim McCarver was hired to run the Cardinals?

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because their roster reads like an all-star team — from NHL '97 for the Sega Genesis.

Worst Case Scenario — The Blues struggle mightily, and Keith Tkachuk turns to the sweet comfort of all-you-can-eat buffets.

SMYTHE DIVISION

CALGARY FLAMES
(46-25-11; 1st in the Northwest Division; Breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Oilers blew it in Game 7.)

Man, I was really worried about the Flames this season, what with an offense that was about as toothless as a 101-year-old woman who was just punched in the mouth.

And then they go and trade for Scott Gomez from the Devils! What an absolutely brilliant move! Talk about your setup men: Gomez turns the Iggy-Tanguay tandem into an unstoppable trio. I even have the coolest nickname in the history of nicknames for them: the GIT-r-done Line.

Start printing those t-shirts now, boys!

[Realizing something may be amiss, Wyshynski scans the Flames 2006-07 roster.]

[Wyshynski then scans the Devils 2006-07 roster.]

Okay, so evidently even though it was mentioned with certainty on every hockey message board and virtually assured by every NHL rumor whore — especially the ones who ask their readers to pay for the right to read their fiction — the trade never actually happened, and evidently could never happen because of the teams' respective salary cap situations.

Oops.

Hey Flames fans, don't worry — plenty of teams have won the Cup with No. 1 centers that were a hell of a lot less talented than Daymond Langkow.

Although I can't remember any of them at this time.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because, by my calculations, the NHL doesn't have to fix it so that an Alberta franchise makes the Finals until roughly 2020.

Worst Case Scenario — Miikka Kiprusoff wins another (yawn) Vezina and shares another (double yawn) Jennings.

COLORADO AVALANCHE
(43-30-9; 2nd in the Northwest; Traded for Paris Hilton's ex-boyfriend.)

Here's what I know about Avalanches: eventually, they have to hit rock bottom.

Sorry folks, show's over. Ride's closed. Exit, stage right. The Avs are now also-rans in a conference where also-rans are used as toilet tissue by the contenders. It's a shame, because while teams like Detroit and New Jersey have been able to maintain consistent success without having even a season of awkward transition, Colorado appears to have been mismanaged into a patchwork of talented but inconsistent offensive players and a goaltender that inspires more prayers than confidence.

And they signed Ken Klee, which should be fun for those games against the fleet-skating Oilers. He's going to look like Frankenstein's monster chasing after a bunch of free-range chickens out there.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because at some point Joe Sakic is going to turn around, scan the bench, and blurt out "Who the hell are these people?" while on Mic'd Up.

Worst Case Scenario — Marek Svatos continues to blossom into a star, which will come in handy when the Avs are ready to contend in another four years.

EDMONTON OILERS
(41-28-13; 3rd in the Northwest Division; Overcame Ty Conklin to nearly win the Stanley Cup.)

With apologies to David Letterman ...

"The Top 10 Ways The Oilers Will Prevent This [Chris] Pronger Thing From Happening Again"

10. Sign only single, gay, or celibate players.
9. Offer daily relaxing foot-massages for players' wives.
8. Change city motto to "Edmonton: The St. Louis of the North."
7. Do what the Oilers used to always do: call in Dave Semenko for some painful "re-education."
6. Trade for players whose wives grew up in the Yukon and will consider Alberta's climate to be practically balmy.
5. Teach Kevin Lowe some Jedi mind-tricks in case another player requests a trade.
4. Instruct team trainer to check new players for pussy-whip marks.
3. Fly in Dr. Phil for couple's therapy.
2. See if the player's wife would be interested in MacTavish giving her the Reggie Dunlop treatment for one night.

And the number one way The Oilers Will Prevent This Pronger Thing From Happening Again...

1. Make him the general manager and sign his wife to a 15-year contract.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because if last year was lightning in a bottle, this season is drizzle in a can. The Oilers are going to score some goals, but in the end will ultimately regret signing Dwayne Roloson when Jussi Markkanen would have had about the same GAA behind this porous defense.

Worst Case Scenario — The Oilers make the playoffs by winning every game 23-21.

MINNESOTA WILD
(38-36-8; 5th in the Northwest; Still waiting for the lockout to end.)

Everyone's in a lather over Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra playing together, which means that everyone's completely forgetting that Jacques Lemaire is still coaching this team.

I don't want to say Lemaire is conservative, but he makes Dick Chaney look like the love child of Michael Moore and Susan Sarandon by comparison.

After this season, all I'll say about Lemaire is that he's unemployed.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — The Wild have a nice collection of two-way players, and moving on from Willie Mitchell in favor of Kim Johnsson and Keith Carney is one of the offseason's most unheralded moves. But I just don't believe that Jacques Lemaire's going to allow the offensive talent on this team to rightfully carry it when it needs to.

Worst Case Scenario — The Wild discover that Manny Fernandez has actually always been a career back-up goalie instead of a potential starter.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS
(42-32-8; 4th in the Central Division; Can no longer claim Dan Cloutier is keeping them from the Cup).

It's time for NHL Jeopardy!

A. Saddam Hussein, Carmen Electra, and Carrot Top.

Q. Who are three people with as many Stanley Cup playoff wins as Roberto Luongo?

To be fair, it's not like The Chosen One has had many opportunities to show his stuff in the playoffs, what with having played for that relocation bait near Miami for his entire career.

Unfortunately, based on Vancouver's roster this season, the wait continues.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because Mattias Ohlund and Willie Mitchell can't play 60 minutes a night.

Worst Case Scenario — The Canucks discover the awful truth: that the Sedins are nothing without that offensive juggernaut Anson Carter.

NO, SERIOUSLY, TEXAS IS ON THE PACIFIC DIVISION

ANAHEIM DUCKS
(43-27-12; 3rd in the Pacific; Decided they were no longer Mighty.)

Time for some hockey math!

=

+

Any questions?

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — The Ducks seem to be a glamour pick for some people, and for good reason. They have a great combination of youth and vets, and all of them can skate their asses off. There should be a provision in the CBA that prohibits teams from having Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger on the same roster when teams like Washington have Jamie Heward in their top three.

But they're not going to win the Cup, or make the Finals. That will give Scotty Nieds and Pronger plenty of time to discuss new and exciting ways to commit career suicide for the sake of family members.

Worst Case Scenario — Someone overhears Lauren Pronger complaining about the California heat and how much she misses taking tours of the Anheuser-Busch brewery.

DALLAS STARS
(53-23-6; 1st in the Pacific; Realized the subtle difference between Marty Turco and a playoff-caliber goaltender.)

One of the most intriguing training camp storylines was the change in captaincy for the Stars, as Brenden Morrow got the 'C' and Mike Modano got the shaft.

On the one hand, Dallas is demoting a player who's been the face of the franchise en route to becoming its all-time leading scorer.

On the other hand, Modano couldn't lead a fat Mexican to Taco Bell.

You've got two kinds of captains in this world: leaders, and those who lead. It's actually a lot like those MVP debates where half the people think the award should go to the best player on the best team and the other half (rightfully) think that it should be awarded to the player the team can't win without.

It's a really easy litmus test: would you rather have Alexei Yashin or Michael Peca as your captain? Dale Hunter or Peter Bondra? Wendel Clark or Mats Sundin?

Giving Brenden Morrow the captaincy was a brilliant kick in the pants for a team that needs one.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because you have to win it in the postseason, and Turco's still their goalie.

Worst Case Scenario — The Stars discover that $1.55 million for one year was about $1.54 million too much for Eric Lindros at this stage of his career.

LOS ANGELES KINGS
(42-35-5; 4th in the Pacific Division; Had more executive turnover than XM Satellite Radio.)

No matter how completely inept the Kings might be this season, they'll never be as inept as Scott Burnside's since-corrected team preview for ESPN.com.

Look, we all make mistakes. Just like Burnside spelled Kings captain Mattias Norstrom's name incorrectly, I'm sure I've butchered a few in this column, starting with my own elephantine Ukrainian albatross of a last name.

But Burnside also said the Kings hadn't won a postseason round since making the Stanley Cup Finals in 1993; maybe his cable was out when L.A. knocked out the Red Wings in the first round of the 2001 playoffs.

He also mentioned the Kings' trade for defensive prospect Jack Johnson (whom he referred to as a "potential blue stud," whatever the hell that quasi-homoerotic nomenclature is supposed to mean), and then later predicted that Tim Gleason would round out L.A.'s defense — you know, the same Tim Gleason that was traded to Carolina for the aforementioned potential blue stud?

He also identified Anze Kopitar as Swedish. To be fair, I believe his hometown of Jesenice is often referred to as "Little Stockholm" in Yugoslavia.

Let it never be said ESPN doesn't care about hockey. But please remind your friends and family that it doesn't know $#@$% about it half the time.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Because offensively they have the depth of a kiddie pool, and because the L.A. Times seriously can't afford to cover that many playoff road games.

Worst Case Scenario — Sean Avery has an equal number of goals scored and fines paid.

PHOENIX COYOTES
(38-39-5; 5th in the Pacific Division; Forever immortalized as the Washington Generals to Ovechkin's Globetrotters.)

The last time I checked, Phoenix's odds for winning the Stanley Cup this season were at 48-to-1. But I understand the Coyotes' coaching staff knows someone who can tease that bad boy up to around 70-1 for a $500 minimum vig...

By the way: I am the only one who found it unintentionally hilarious that Jeremy Roenick announced he was going avoid the limelight in an exclusive interview with a major daily newspaper?

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — The Coyotes are good on paper — very good on defense, in fact. But winning the Stanley Cup is a bit of a tall order for a franchise that's in a potentially murderous division if the Kings aren't the train wreck some predict them to be.

Worst Case Scenario — The Coyotes miss the playoff cut, allowing them ample time to dry clean and vacuum the red carpet for Todd Bertuzzi's arrival.

SAN JOSE SHARKS
(44-27-11; 2nd in the Pacific; Eliminated by Edmonton even after the Oilers were nice enough to spot them two games.)

[Excerpts from San Jose General Manager Doug Wilson's daytime planner.]

5:30 AM: Wake up. Check police blotter to make sure Joe Thornton isn't a "healthy scratch" tonight.

5:43 AM: Recall that the second-best player on team is named "Cheechoo." Giggle incessantly.

6:00 AM: Head to Airport. Call Ottawa front office, remind them that they're literally one Nabokov away from winning the Stanley Cup.

10:00 AM: Log on to Wikipedia. See if the franchise's greatest mark on sports history is still "along with the Charlotte Hornets of the NBA, are often credited with popularizing teal as a color for American sports teams."

10:47 AM: Call Philadelphia front office. Apologize for the whole Mike Rathje thing. Remind them that they're literally one Toskala away from winning the Stanley Cup.

1:30 PM: Arrive in New Jersey. Mow Lou Lamoriello's lawn. Head back to airport.

2:30 PM: Return Pat Falloon's call. Come up with yet another convenient excuse as for why we won't be retiring his number this season.

2:33 PM: Return Ray Shero's call, RE: "Did you know your team is literally one M.A. Fluery away from winning the Stanley Cup?"

8:30 PM: Arrive Back in California. Prepare for tomorrow's flight to New Jersey, RE: picking up Lou Lamoriello's dry cleaning and giving him a scalp massage.

Why They Won't Win the Stanley Cup — Truth be told, they're my pick. I love any team with a rock-solid top line, a strong second-line center, grit all over the place and — if recent history is any indication — two goalies that could carry a team in the postseason if they're in a groove. They won't win the Stanley Cup if they don't add another veteran offensive defenseman; you know, besides Vladimir "I'm not retired, I'm just a deserter" Malakhov.

Worst Case Scenario — Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo pick up more hardware, but the Sharks as a whole do not.

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 10:22 PM | Comments (0)

October 6, 2006

The Yankees, As Seen By the NY Office-Worker

I told myself I would never get engulfed in Yankee fever. I promised myself I would hold strong and never write about the Yankees because they have the most interest. And I promised myself I would never fall for a girl who was a Yankees fan.

I moved to New York City, began working at a newspaper that pressured me to write about the Yankees, and was surrounded by cute girls who were Yankees fans.

Where did I go wrong?

I never quite understood why this city embraces the Yankees. They are, after all, the Evil Empire. They eat little children, torture puppies, and worst of all, they are funded by Yankees fans. Ugh.

New Yorkers don't just love their Yankees — they Love their Yankees, with a capital "L" which means they would trade their puppies for a Yankee win. (Then, of course, those puppies get tortured.)

But then I had a revelation. New Yorkers, like everyone else, connect with things that reflect their own lives. And these Yankees seem to represent the offices these New Yorkers work in.

For example, Bobby Abreu is that new guy at work that management brought in because they felt the office needed a new "dynamic." He's that veteran reporter they bring into the newsroom because management feels he's a "good fit." You know who I'm talking about — yeah, him.

Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina are the guys at the office who were given that roomy corner cubicle the day after the walked in as wily veterans. You despise them because they are just so much better than you, yet you know these guys will be gone soon so you can finally move into the roomy cubicle. At this point, you get somewhat depressed because you realize you're life goal is to move into a larger cubicle.

But the cubicle is nothing compared to the large offices Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter have. Jeter is that brilliant young prodigy the company puts on its fliers. When the company makes a profit, he wins employee of the month. A-Rod was the guy that your company sold its soul for. If you work for McDonalds, he's the guy the company got in return for Ronald McDonald. If you work for ESPN, he would be the guy they would trade for ESPN2.

Johnny Damon is that sly guy who walks into the office all slick, and thinks he can hit on all the chicks in the office because he's just a stud — after all, he helped reverse some massive curse that we've all forgotten about. Sadly, he is a stud and the chicks fall for him. You just slouch back into your tiny cubicle and go back to playing solitaire.

Of course, while you're playing solitaire, the young and eager kids are working hard to leapfrog you the pecking order. Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, and Chien-Ming Wang come into the office with extra donuts for the boss, they skip they're lunch break to get more work done, and worst of all, they tell you how great a job you're doing and slap you on the ass as you're walking by to get coffee. You return to your game of solitaire.

The old-timers in the office are Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada. The boss has ordered extra-comfortable chairs for them, and they've built up so many vacation days that they really just come to work for fun. It's almost despisable how much they enjoy working.

But the office isn't without guys with troubled pasts. Gary Sheffield and Jason Giambi are those guys who you really like, but you know they've done some things in the past that aren't quite, uh, kosher. And no, the boss's wife is not kosher.

You've also got your Mariano Rivera in the office, who always gets the deals done with the big clients, but never really does the grunt work. You get mad because you did all the work, and he gets the credit for closing out the deal. When you bring it up with your boss, he tells you you're just overreacting and directs you back to your cubicle.

There are still guys like Cory Lidle, Kyle Farnsworth, and Miguel Cairo that are just at the office for a few months, then slowly fade away. And there is, of course, Sal Fasano whom management brings in to make everyone else look a little better — in comparison, that is.

So New Yorkers can just relate to these guys. Sure, everyone thinks they're the "Derek Jeter" of their office, but really, we all know we're the "Sal Fasano" at work.

Despite this revelation, I'll still never understand this infatuation with the Yankees. And I would pay a lot for a Yankees loss. Maybe not my puppy, but I'd give a limb or two. And for a Yankee curse, I'd give up the girl who is unfortunately a Yankees fan.

But I'm just saying that because I have no chance with her. In her eyes, I'm that Royals fan that doesn't knows how to love his team, but not Love his team.

I'll tell her I just can't relate.

Posted by Alvin Chang at 10:33 PM | Comments (0)

October 5, 2006

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 5

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Buffalo @ Chicago

Let's hope last week's 37-6 Bears win over Seattle was not a preview of the NFC Championship Game. Hell, after that performance, let's hope Seattle doesn't even make the playoffs. Reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Brian Urlacher was second on the Bears with five tackles as the Bears held the Seattle to 230 yards total offense and said good "bye" to the 'Hawks.

"It's a good thing we pressed that 'easy button,'" says Urlacher, "As you know, last year we smoked the Panthers in the regular season, then they came back in the playoffs and whipped us. So, if we meet the Seahawks in the playoffs, we'll be ready for them, just as long as they don't pick up Steve Smith from now until then. Now, for the last time Jimmy Johnson, I do not know what happened to Napoleon when he tried to invade Russia. If I had to guess, I'd say he got Jacked Up!"

Buffalo running back Willis McGahee has kept his mouth shut and hasn't proclaimed himself the best running back in the NFL. He has chosen to do his talking on the field and not off, and it has paid off. McGahee leads the league in rushing with 389 yards.

"You darn right it's paid off," says McGahee. "I just signed endorsement deals with Hertz Rental Cars and Dingo Boots. And to reward myself, I bought a 1991 tricked-out white Ford Bronco."

The Bears haven't allowed a touchdown at home all year, and that won't change, unless the Bills score a touchdown. But they don't. Rex Grossman throws two touchdown passes, and the Bears force four turnovers.

Chicago wins, 26-10.

Cleveland @ Carolina

The Panthers are right back in the hunt in the NFC South after beating the undefeated Saints 21-18 last week in Charlotte. In his second game back, wide receiver Steve Smith had another big game, with 10 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown, and was cheap-shotted by New Orleans' linebacker Scott Fujita.

"Fujita-son try to hurt me long time," says Smith, waxing on and off under the guidance of trainer Mr. Miagi. "Now, me so ornery."

It's clear that the Panthers are a different team with Smith. What's different? They win. The Panthers are 0-2 without Smith, and 2-0 with him. They are also 2-0 in games in which Smith catches a pass, and 0-2 in games in which he doesn't.

"Wow! They're 4-4!" yells an excited Romeo Crenel, losing his balance momentarily, but regaining it, and proving once and for all that Weebles wobble, but they don't fall down. "We'd kill for that record. But we like our position. We're 1-3, just a 1/2-game behind the defending world champion Steelers. If the Steelers didn't suck, we could easily say we're in last in the toughest division in football. As it is, this year, as well as next year and the following year, are what we like to call 'rebuilding' years. Come 2009, we should be in position to challenge for that last wildcard spot."

Is this the game in which the Panthers finally explode and blow the Browns out, thereby showing the promise that many saw as a preseason Super Bowl-caliber team? Probably not. If it's inconsistency you're looking for in a team, the Panthers are it. But the Panthers should have another successful day running the ball as the Browns gave up 194 on the ground to the Raiders. Of course, the Browns still won. But Carolina is not the Raiders. It's De-Day in Carolina. DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams combine for 150 yards rushing, and Smith catches a scoring bomb.

Carolina wins, 24-17. After the game, Kellen Winslow, hot-dogging in the parking lot on his crotch rocket, rams into the back of a car, causing the trunk to open. Out pops former Panther wide receiver Rae Carruth, who hightails it until he is tackled by police.

Detroit @ Minnesota

The Lions lost a shootout in St. Louis in a high-scoring Sunday in the NFL. Jon Kitna threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, but tossed two costly interceptions as the Lions remained winless.

"Do not despair, denizen of the fine city of Detroit," says Lions head coach Rod Marinelli. "Sure, we may be winless, but the Tigers are in the baseball playoffs, and hockey season just started. Please, fans, if you must throw octopi on the field, make sure they're thrown in the direction of general manager Matt Millen."

After a 2-0 start, the Vikings have lost two straight, and now trail the Bears by two full games in the NFC North.

"I don't want to point fingers," says head coach Brad Childress, "so I'll just point one. If you'll look in the direction in which my right index finger is pointing, you'll see our offense, which has yet to score more than 19 points in a game. And that 19 came in overtime. Our defense has yet to give up more than 17 points. You've got to ask yourself: ehat would Mike Tice have done in this situation?"

I'm not sure, Brad, but it would have involved tickets, cash, and great seats.

The Vikes should find a little more offense against the Lions, who are surrendering close to 30 per game. Brad Johnson throws for three scores, and the Vikings win, 27-18.

Miami @ New England

When Smith Barney talks, people listen. When Bill Belichick talks trash, Chad Johnson and the Bengals shut up. Belichick good-naturedly traded barbs with the outspoken Bengals receiver a few days before the Patriots' 38-13 thrashing of the 3-0 Bengals in Cincinnati.

"I've honed my smack-talking skills watching MTV's Yo Momma," explains Belichick. "The gift of gab is the gift that I have, and that came in handy in the Deion Branch negotiations. Hey, check this out. If I pull the hood up on my filthy hooded sweatshirt and don these sunglasses, I look just like the Unabomber."

Miami lost 17-15 to the Texans, and their AFC East titles hopes are quickly slipping away. A loss to the Patriots and the Dolphins will be a full three games back just a quarter into the season.

"We realize the urgency of the situation," says Dolphins head coach Nick Saban. "That's why I've made an urgent plea to Sports Illustrated to retract their choice of the Dolphins to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I've also canceled my subscription to SI, but I plan to renew in early February, just in time to receive the annual swimsuit issue."

Miami can still play a little defense, but their offense surprisingly lacks big-play ability. New England has that big-play ability in the form of the dreadlocked duo of rookie running back Laurence Maroney and wide receiver Doug Gabriel, acquired from the Raiders in the preseason. Maroney catches a TD pass, and Gabriel goes for 95 yards receiving and a TD.

New England wins, 26-13.

St. Louis @ Green Bay

It's just like old times in the NFC West — the Seahawks and Rams are tied for first, the Cardinals and 49ers are tied for last, and Kurt Warner still fumbles and throws interceptions like it's going out of style. The Rams outgunned the Lions 41-34 in Mike Martz's return to St. Louis, and improved to 3-1. Should they win in Green Bay, the Rams will host the Seahawks in Week 6 with the West lead up for grabs.

"And all we have to do is get by the Packers," says Rams coach Scott Linehan, sitting in Martz's old director's chair, labeled 'Genius.' "If you would have told me in August that we'd be 3-1 at this point, I would have replied 'Are you talking to me, or Mike Holmgren?"

After Monday's loss to the Eagles, Green Bay is 1-3, but Brett Favre is still throwing BBs and is still in pursuit of Dan Marino's NFL record of 420 touchdown passes.

"Of course I'm still in pursuit of the record, you idiot," says a perturbed Favre, applying a heavy dose of Grecian Formula to his graying beard. "I was at 402 before the game. What, did you expect me to throw 18 touchdowns in Philly?"

Of course not, Brett. But, is just one touchdown too much to ask? Apparently.

Favre gets numbers 403 and 404, but Marc Bulger tops him with three touchdowns, narrowing the gap between he and Marino to 344.

Rams win, 30-22.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

The Panthers blocked the Saints' bid to go 4-0 with a 21-18 win in Charlotte. With the New Orleans' defense keying on Steve Smith, the Panther running game finally found daylight, rushing for 167 yards. The Saints, however, are still in first at 3-1, holding the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Falcons, who are also 3-1.

"As you know," says Reggie Bush, "I'm not used to losing. Especially not in the fourth game of the season. At USC, if we would have lost our fourth game of the season, fans would start coming to the games with paper bags over their heads. But I know Saints fans wouldn't think of doing such a thing."

The Saints will face the 0-3 Buccaneers, and that's good news for the Saints, who are 2-0 already this year against winless teams, with victories over the Packers and Browns before those teams got their first wins. Tampa will start rookie Bruce Gradkowski, affectionately known as "The Polish Sausage" for his imposing locker room presence, in place of injured Chris Simms.

"I'm going to use a popular cliche right now," says Tampa coach John Gruden. "We're not asking Bruce to win the game for us; we're just asking him not to lose it for. I'm also asking him to let me know if he feels at any time like he may lose a vital organ."

Gradkowski plays well, but the Saints get a late John Carney field goal for the winning margin.

New Orleans wins, 23-20.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

The Jets took the Colts to the limit at the Meadowlands, finally losing 31-28 when Peyton Manning snuck in from the one with 50 seconds left. It was Manning's second rushing score in as many weeks, which gives him more rushing TDs than six teams in the league.

"Cool. I'm our quarterback and our goal line back," says Manning, emerging from inside a giant football in a misty rain. "It's the rebirth of cool. Damn, this is some delicious Gatorade. Anyway, who says we don't miss Edgerrin James?"

It was a rough day all around for the Titans last week. They were slammed by the Cowboys, 45-14, and defensive end Albert Haynesworth drew the ire of the Cowboys, Titans coach Jeff Fisher, and the league when he stepped on the face of Dallas center Andre Gurode. Haynesworth was suspended five games by the NFL.

"I don't know what Albert was thinking," says Fisher, wearing a t-shirt reading 'Fire Coach Fisher,' available exclusively at FireCoachFisher.com and Tennessee area Hooters. "That's just plain dirty. Even Bill Romanowski didn't stoop that low. With the Bengals on a bye week, I guess we're the league's bad boys for a week. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'd like to sit down, kick back, and enjoy the NFL Networks' Movie of the Week, Menace II Sobriety: The Odell Thurman Story."

With the score tied 28-3 and the Colts threatening from the Titans' 13-yard line, Manning grabs the attention of a sideline cameraman.

"Hey you! Come here!" yells Manning. "It's 28-3. If you had NFL Sunday Ticket from DirecTV, you could watch my brother Eli against the Redskins, or another game. Now, if you'll excuse me, I've got to run. Actually, I think I'll pass."

Manning then hits Reggie Wayne for his fourth touchdown of the game.

Colts win, 35-13.

Washington @ N.Y. Giants

Washington quarterback Mark Brunell stuck it to his old team last week, hitting Santana Moss with a 68-yard touchdown pass in overtime as the Redskins beat Jacksonville 36-30. On the day, Brunell threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns, all to Moss.

"What can you say about Santana?" says Brunell. "He's the only Moss in this league producing right now. He's turned more heads than Kate Moss, and Santana doesn't even do cocaine, much less get photographed doing it in a nightclub. It was nice to stick it to my former team. Now, I get chance to stick it to my former coach, Tom Coughlin."

The Giants spent their bye week playing the blame game and counting the number of points their defense has surrendered. That number is 92, almost 31 a game.

"Our defense has been on bye all season," says Coughlin, mysteriously dressed in dark blue coveralls and a tam and calling himself 'The Hardliner.' "I'll give any other defense in the league a thousand dollars if they'll take the field against the Redskins. Seriously, we need this game much more than the Redskins, therefore, we better win, because if I have to hear another player say we were out-coached, I'm going to snap."

Coughlin's right. The G-Men need a win badly, and they get it, thanks to a defense that finally steps up and holds a team under their average of 30.6. Tiki Barber scores two touchdowns, and New York wins, 35-29.

Kansas City @ Arizona

Is the Kurt Warner era over in Arizona? Warner threw an interception and lost a fumble before being yanked for Matt Leinart in the fourth quarter.

"It's about time," says Arizona running back Edgerrin James. "With Matt in there, at least we're free to curse in the huddle. And when you play for Arizona, you curse a lot. But let's get to the real issue. We're going to be playing in the University of Phoenix Stadium when we could have been playing in the Pink Taco. Just when it looked like they were going to name this place the Pink Taco, it's snatched away in favor of the University of Phoenix. That place isn't even a legitimate university, unless you want an online degree in casino management/veterinary sciences. Now, enough about two white quarterbacks. Let's talk about two brothers with gold teeth. Don't miss the premiere of Grillz Gone Wild on Spike TV, starring myself and Chad Johnson."

Obviously, Warner taught Leinart well. In his quarter of work, Leinart threw an interception and fumbled. And it won't be any easier against the Chiefs, who feature two tough cornerbacks in Ty Law and Patrick Surtain. And, if the Falcons rushed for over 200 yards against the Cards, what can arry Johnson do against the Arizona defense?

"It took two Falcons to break 200 yards," says Johnson. "I'll do it by myself."

Johnson doesn't quite get 200, but 180 and two touchdowns is enough to lead the Chiefs to a 30-16 win.

N.Y. Jets @ Jacksonville

It's a battle between quarterback alumni of the Marshall Thundering Herd, as New York's Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich face off to determine which of these teams is "for real." The Jags looked for real after blanking the Steelers 9-0 on September 17th, but have dropped two straight since then. The Jets are off to a 2-2 start, but have played the Patriots and Colts tough.

"I'm the president of the Marshall Alumni Association," says Pennington. "Byron's the Vice-President, and Randy Moss is the Minister of Recreation. We also are the only three members. Analysts will draw all kinds of comparisons between Byron and I. I'm sure first on that list will be arm strength. I know Byron can throw the pigskin much harder than me, but have you seen his windup? It takes him at least three seconds to throw the ball. He definitely needs to go to the stretch, otherwise baserunners will be able to steal second and third on him at once."

The Jags are still smarting from the Redskins' 36-point explosion; they had previously surrendered only 38 in their previous three games. Expect them to be a little more stingy with the points. Leftwich and Pennington play to a stalemate, with two touchdowns apiece, but the Jags prevail, 20-14. The Jets' last-ditch effort to return the kickoff for a score using multiple laterals is foiled when the Stanford band storms the field, blocking the Jets' route to paydirt.

Oakland @ San Francisco

Over at Oakland's McAfee Coliseum, they call the baseball team the 'A's.' At Network Associates Coliseum, they call the football team the 'L's.' After blowing a 21-3 lead, the Raiders lost 24-21 to the Browns, and now sport three L's and no W's in the standings.

"There's only one thing I can do about it," says Raider underachiever Randy Moss, "and that's smoke some J's, drink some OE, listen to the Bee Gee's, watch The OC, and dream of Californication. You feel me, G? Now someone offer the Raiders a delicious deal, like a middle first-round pick, and get me out of this black hole, before I bring this organization to its knees. Y'all holla back."

"This season is not lost," insists Raider coach Art Shell. "Despite being the first head coach in history to have the 'interim' lable affixed to his title midseason, I will keep fighting for this team. I realize my head is so big that I cannot wear a Raiders cap; I simply must rest it upon my head. But 'big head' does not necessarily mean big ego. I'll gladly concede this job to anyone more qualified. I hear Bill Romanowski is doing great things with his son's flag football team. He's actually protesting rough play. I never expected that from him."

San Francisco will look to rebound from their blowout loss to the Chiefs, and the Raiders are always ripe for the picking. 49er officials enlist retired San Fran cop Dirty Harry Callahan as honorary coin tosser for this Bay Area showdown.

"You've got to ask yourself, 'Do you feel lucky?' Well do you, punk?" Callahan says to Frisco captain Eric Johnson.

"Yes, I do, Officer Callahan," replies Johnson. "I'll take tails."

Tails it is, and the 49ers wisely elect to receive, and score on their opening drive. They never look back. Frank Gore sneaks some stickum into the game and holds on to the ball for a goal line score.

San Francisco wins, 20-9.

Dallas @ Philadelphia

There's a hot new board game that is selling like stolen cars in Philadelphia. It's from the good people at Milton Bradley, and it's called Operation: T.O. Use the tweezers to place a pin in Terrell Owens' finger, and remove pills from his mouth. Careful! Touch the sides and a concerned friend will dial 911. First one to take T.O.'s foot out of his mouth is the winner.

"That's not funny," insists Owens' super-agent Drew Rosenhaus. "Do you see me laughing? Do you see my new client the Burger King laughing? Next question."

"I've got to be the better man and speak up about this," says Philly quarterback Donovan McNabb. "Rosenhaus is right. It's not funny. It's freakin' hilarious! T.O.'s a pill. Maybe he didn't try to commit suicide, but he's been committing career suicide since he's been in the NFL. T.O.'s in for the worst day of his life, and there's two things he can do about it: nothing and like it."

Will the fans of Philadelphia show any compassion whatsoever for Owens? Is Philly cheese steak good for your heart? It's a cruel welcome for Owens. During Dallas introductions, Philly hit men/waste disposal engineers/bookies/travel agents/goombahs Vinny and Joey commandeer the sound system and play Ozzy Osbourne's "Suicide Solution" as Owens takes the field. Owens plays along, and strikes back in the first quarter. Owens takes a pass over the middle from Drew Bledsoe and races 17 yards for the score. He then takes a bottle of Flintstone chewables out of his jersey and downs the contents of the entire bottle, then tosses the empty bottle into the stands. It is quickly filled with battery acid and thrown right back at Owens.

With the score tied 24-24 late in the fourth, McNabb scrambles in for a touchdown from the five, giving the Eagles a 31-24 win.

Pittsburgh @ San Diego

Have you noticed that the two teams to beat Pittsburgh this year, Jacksonville and Cincinnati, almost immediately after winning were hailed as solid Super Bowl contenders? Then, the following week, each was beaten. The Jags went down to the Colts, while the Bengals got their racing stripes trimmed by the Patriots.

"No, I didn't notice that," says San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers, "nor do I care. My concentration rests solely on beating the Steelers, and on what to do with this case of cough syrup given to me by my teammate Terrence Kiel. He must have a serious cough problem. You know, the funny thing is, I've never even seen him cough once. He does seem to be a little loopy most of the time."

The Chargers are coming off a physical 16-13 loss to the Ravens, and now must face a Steeler squad rested after a bye week and in dire need of a win.

"It's time to put up or shut up," says Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter, "and since I don't shut up, I guess we'll put up. Our dukes, that is. It's time for Ben Roethlisberger to start playing like Big Ben and stop playing like Tommy Maddox. Hey, listen. Can you hear it? Click-clack. Click-clack. I love the sound of Under Armor footwear on concrete in the evening."

With a click-clack, paddy-wack, give Porter's pit bulls a bone, and they'll ignore it. They'll attack a horse or some other helpless creature. But, as we all know, owning pit-bulls, like $5,000 rims that you make payments on, makes you cool.

Anyway, Roethlisberger has something to prove — that he can still throw the ball 50 yards downfield, and Bill Cowher will give his troops a searingly motivational, spittle-flavored speech beforehand. The Steelers respond and let it be known that they are still contenders.

Pittsburgh wins, 20-16.

Baltimore @ Denver

After last week's thrilling 16-13 win over the Chargers, the Ravens are one of only three undefeated teams in the league and lead the AFC North, ahead of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, whom most experts believed would battle it out for the division crown.

"Most experts?" asks the Ravens beak-nosed Brian Billick, enjoying a bouquet of purple roses sent to him by Baltimore general manager Ozzie Newsome, with a card reading '4-0. Way to go!.' "Ha! I'll have those fools eating crow after we snuff the Broncos on Monday. Our gameplan is simple: if we can ride them for eight seconds without getting bucked, then we win. Now, if we get into trouble and can't get off, we'll send in the clown. That would be me. I really haven't had to make a significant decision for this team yet. I've told our defense that they need to score every now and then. And I've made quite a few brilliant decisions to punt this year. Hopefully, this defense can carry me to my second Super Bowl win, which would place me in the company of coaches in which I certainly don't belong. Like Don Shula, Bill Parcells, George Halas, and many others."

Also on that list would be red-faced demon Mike Shanahan, who hitched a ride on John Elway's right arm all the way to two Super Bowls.

"I still think Jake Plummer can lead this team to the Super Bowl," says Shanahan, "given directions and unlimited gasoline. We know the Ravens want to force Jake into bad decisions and turnovers. I just want Jake to make the high percentage throws and roll out on occasion to keep away of the Ravens' pass rush. If he can get us into field goal range, I think that might be enough points to win this game."

This should be a physical, bruising, hotly-contested meeting. Too bad the Baltimore and Denver defenses won't be on the field at the same time. Jason Elam kicks three field goals, and Champ Bailey seals the win with a late interception.

Denver wins, 16-10.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:54 PM | Comments (4)

College Football Predictions: Week 6

Last week was not kind to me or those who follow my picks. The good news is that I am well ahead for the season and definitely plan on keeping it up this week.

YTD Record

1* = 2-4-1
2* = 5-3
3* = 5-2

As a reminder, the ranking system is as follows:

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

LSU @ Florida PK, 3:30 PM, CBS

The first of two very large SEC matchups on the weekend pits LSU and Florida against each other in the Swamp. The Gators enter the game undefeated with national championship aspirations still alive, while LSU must earn a win simply to keep their distant SEC title hopes alive.

I think that LSU is the more talented team here, and the fact that they are not an underdog in an environment as hostile Gainesville suggests the oddsmakers feel that way, too. Even so, and despite the fact that I still don't trust Chris Leak, I think Florida finds a way to get this one done for no other reason than that I'd rather back Urban Meyer over Les Miles any day.

The play: Florida 1*

Texas -4 vs. Oklahoma, 3:30 PM, ABC

Per usual, the annual Red River Shootout between Texas and Oklahoma will likely be for the Big 12 South title. However, this is the first time in years that neither team is a likely national championship candidate going into this game. Don't think for a second that fact suggest that this game is meaningless to the teams involved.

For a while, I've been assuming that as a contrarian, I'd be forced to back Oklahoma and Paul Thompson in this spot, but then a funny thing happened — Oklahoma actually played well the last few games. Consider me unconvinced, Oregon moved the ball very effectively against the supposedly great Oklahoma defense, and Texas should be able to do the same. I am not a fan of eating chalk, but I won't back Paul Thompson in this spot.

The play: Texas 1*

Tennessee @ Georgia +3, 7:45 PM, ESPN

The Saturday night matchup between Georgia and Tennessee is pretty much an elimination game in the SEC East race. I could analyze this game any number of ways, but I'd come to the same conclusion every single time. Everything I've seen points towards Tennessee winning this game big, but it is never that easy.

Georgia's quarterback situation is abysmal, but they are still a strong rushing team with a very good defense playing at home in a nighttime, hostile environment. I live for "ugly" plays like these.

The play: Georgia 3*

Oregon @ Cal -4.5, 8:00 PM, ABC

It's probably a bit short-sighted, but I'm calling this one the Pac-10 semifinal game. Whomever wins this contest will enter their game against USC with a chance to wrestle the conference title from the Trojans' firm grasp.

This line opened at Cal -7.5 and has since plummeted down to its current level of Cal -4.5. Normally, this would suggest that the sharp money is on Oregon, but I don't think so. I think the public is pounding an undefeated Oregon team getting points on the road against the team that got blown out by Tennessee. Oregon has never been a great road team, and they used up all of their luck against Oklahoma. The Ducks get roasted Saturday night.

The play: Cal 2*

Nebraska @ Iowa State +7

8:00 PM, ABC

In the other ABC primetime game of the night Iowa State and Nebraska battle it out for Big 12 North supremacy. The teams have lost three games combined, but when you consider that those losses were all on the road to Iowa, USC, and Texas it really doesn't seem as bad.

I say this a lot, but that number just seems way too generous in respect to Iowa State receiving seven points at home. Iowa State is certain to be more public that I'd prefer because of the large number, but probably won't get enough attention to keep me from playing them. I think they have a great shot to win outright, so I'll be more than happy to grab the points.

The play: Iowa State 2*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.

Posted by Ryan Hojnacki at 8:55 PM | Comments (1)

October 4, 2006

NFL Week 5 Bye Report

Around 3 PM CST on Sunday, I've got Baltimore driving for the winning score, Colts/Jets with three TDs in the final 2:30, New Orleans down three with an onside kick, Miami for a two-point conversion to tie, and Minnesota trying to get a stop on defense to get the ball back. If you don't have the NFL Sunday Ticket, I feel sorry for you. It was NCAA tournament-style remote action.

Here's what we learned from Week 4:

1. That Colts' run defense has "one and done in the playoffs" written all over it. Corey Simon better come back close to full strength or they could be in trouble starting Week 7 (Washington, at Denver, at New England).

2. I'm telling you — Charlie Frye is good.

3. The Jacksonville defense is worn down after consecutive slugfests against Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Washington. I'd be a little weary picking them this week against the Jets.

4. Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd, and Antwaan Randle El are way better than Eddie Kennison, Johnny Morton, and Dante Hall. Al Saunders has the Washington offense clicking, and it may be even better than his best Chiefs teams. That's scary stuff.

5. Don't believe the final score. Atlanta did not play a great game against Arizona. That's just how bad Kurt Warner is.

6. First Denver, now New England. Just when you think they're done, they come back to beat the crap out of somebody. Remember that when picking the Steelers/Chargers game.

7. Quote from Marvin Lewis on whether he saw a difference without deactivated WR Chris Henry: "I did notice a difference, actually. I didn't have anybody taunting, in anybody's face or anything like that. That's where I noticed the difference: guys doing it the way they're asked to do it. I didn't have to worry about the guy taking off his helmet on the field and things like that." Damn, Marvin. Take it easy on the guy.

8. I don't care how popular he is. I'm sick of Dane Cook.

9. Can you imagine if Joe Buck had called the Titans/Cowboys game? Would he have survived his own moral outrage? I don't think so. Too bad, too. Now I have to listen to him call the baseball playoffs.

10. Watch out for Baltimore's offensive line. News that Edwin Mulitalo is out for the year is a serious blow to a rushing offense that was already less than spectacular (95.8 ypg, 23rd in the league).

On to the bye report for Week 5: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, and Seattle get some rest. Anybody want to guess which Bengal gets arrested while "just being at the wrong place at the wrong time?" I've got my money on Frostee Rucker.

Atlanta Falcons

(3-1 overall, 2-1 AFC South, tied for first)

Overview — I'm adding Michael Vick to my list of quarterbacks I will never bet on if my life depends on it. The Falcons are converting only 28.6 percent on third down, third worst in the league. Of Atlanta's six first-half drives on Sunday, all but one got into Arizona territory. They got four FGs and threw an interception in the end zone. Their only touchdown "drive" on offense was a second-half one-play, 78-yard run by Jerious Norwood. This was at home against the Cardinals.

Impact of the Bye — At this point, it's a waste. If I'm a Falcons fan, I'm worried they go into the week off feeling more confident than they have a right to be. With the Giants, Steelers, and Bengals up after the week off, they better not lose their edge. Otherwise, this could get a little bit ugly. Bad time for a bye.

Outlook — In a weak NFC, they can survive for a while without a passing game, but against Chicago or Philadelphia in a playoff game, that's not going to fly. All the addition of WR Ashley Lelie seems to have accomplished is to give them three first-round busts for Vick to not see instead of two. With the exception of St. Louis, this is the worst 3-1 team in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals

(3-1, 2-0 AFC North, second place)

Overview — I'm inclined to give their offense a pass for the debacle against the Patriots. Bad games happen, especially against Bill Belichick defenses. Their defensive problems, on the other hand, are a concern. With Odell Thurman now not coming back at all this year, and injuries to a bunch of guys on that side of the ball, depth is wearing pretty thin. I'm not worried about their playoff chances just yet, but there are issues to be addressed.

Impact of the Bye — With a potent six-pack coming up after the bye (at Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta, at Baltimore, San Diego, at New Orleans), this is a good time to step back and assess. Carson Palmer and the offense will be fine as long as Chris Henry is involved. The three wide-receiver set of Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Henry may be the best in the league (quote from Marvin Lewis above not withstanding). Having an extra week to stew on the beating by New England may be what coach Marvin Lewis needs to get this team finally focused. Perfect time for a bye.

Outlook — With a tough six weeks after the bye, and a closing stretch of Indianapolis and Denver on the road, then at home in the finale against Pittsburgh, the Bengals are going to have to earn any success they have this season. You need a good defense to get through a schedule like that, and I'm not sure they have what it takes. 344 yards allowed per game (144 rushing) is just too many.

Houston Texans

(1-3, 0-1 AFC South, third place)

Overview — Hey, did you see that game against Miami? The Texans won! No, really. I swear! And you know what else? Mario Williams had a sack! I'm not even kidding! You know, maybe they were right to take him instead of Reggie Bush...

Impact of the Bye — When your team is bound for top-10 draft status, you want to get as much pleasure as you can from every win. If I'm Gary Kubiak, I'm taking the whole team to Hedonism. Party it up, boys, only 10 days until you get blasted by the Cowboys.

Outlook — Headline from 2007 draft: "Texans Take Bush!" Too bad it's Michael Bush from Louisville. (No. I will not let this go. At least not this week.)

Seattle Seahawks

(3-1, 1-0 NFC West, tied for first)

Overview — Well, that wasn't exactly what I was expecting. I don't know if it was the absence of Shaun Alexander, the emotion of the crowd, or just plain not being good enough to fight it out with a team like Chicago, but they just crapped all over themselves on national TV. Matt Hasselbeck got pulled for Seneca Wallace out of mercy, for Christ's sake. It was embarrassing to watch. Still, don't go jumping off the Space Needle just yet. This is far and away the class of the division. They'll be fine.

Impact of the Bye — Kind of along the lines of Cincinnati, maybe it's not the worst thing in the world to have to stew on a beat down. Deion Branch gets an extra week to acclimate to the system, plus it's one less week they have to play without Alexander and TE Jerramy Stevens. (What happened to Itula Mili, by the way? Wasn't he good at some point?) Heading into a road match against St. Louis (arguably their toughest division game of the season), this bye week will come in pretty handy.

Outlook — We may not have a chance to find out what this team is about until Week 13 at Denver. They have one of the most pronounced home-field advantages, and perhaps the weakest division in football. That'll hide any weaknesses until late in the season.

Playlist of the Week

(Available on iTunes)

1. Ball and Biscuit - The White Stripes
2. Dear Mr. Fantasy - Traffic
3. Fu-Gee-La - The Fugees
4. November Has Come - Gorillaz
5. Get it Together - Beastie Boys f/ Tribe Called Quest
6. King Without a Crown - Matisyahu
7. Pushin' Too Hard - The Seeds
8. Caress - The Brian Jonestown Massacre
9. Shadow of Grief - The Greenhornes
10. Institutionalized - Suicidal Tendencies

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 9:33 PM | Comments (0)

Random Thoughts on MLB Playoffs

Derek Jeter homers, Jason Giambi homers, Albert Pujols homers, Frank Thomas homers. Twice. And FOX says you can't script October. Hmm, but if you could, wouldn't you want all your marquee stars going deep on the first day to draw interest for the rest of the playoffs?

The game of the day was the early game. Twins/Athletics Game 1 did not turn out to be a classic, but was still wildly entertaining for the brief two hours, 26 minutes it was on. It was a scintillating pitchers' duel between Johan Santana and Barry Zito. They were like two gorgeous girls at a bar: everyone who went after either one of them ended up whiffing and walking away frustrated and confused. Both pitchers were working quickly and making quick use of batters. This made the game so much easier and more fun to watch.

The Frank Thomas fountain-of-youth-for-the-umpteenth-time story continues in a big way. Two home runs, one against the unhittable Santana. The other one I do not like though. Sure, it was a good pitch, but Santana, having thrown 109 pitches after eight innings with no signs of slowing down. He should have had a chance to go nine in a close game.

Sadly, I cannot prove to you that I said this before reliever Jesse Crain gave up said home run to Thomas. You will have to take my word for it. Prior to either starter being taken out, ESPN had put a graphic on screen showing both pitchers' brilliant lines and I realized this could be a great chance for the rare double-complete game. Alas.

As it turns out, that pitching change in the top of the ninth, which led to the Thomas home run, did make the difference in the game. The Twins score in the bottom of the ninth, but just once. That has to be one of the most underrated ways to lose a game in terms of frustration. Giving up a late regrettable insurance run only to get just enough runs back so that the bad insurance run makes the difference and you would have tied or won it otherwise. Hang in there, Twins fans.

The mighty Metrodome has not fared well in the new millennium. Remember when the Twins couldn't lose there if you paid them Black Sox scandal money (yes, I know it was 1919 ... adjust for inflation where necessary)? So now what has this Twins team done in the dome in postseason? 2002 against the A's, split Games 3 and 4, then split Games 1 and 2 against the Angels in the LCS. 2003 against the Yankees, they got beat-down wickedly in both games by a combined score of 11-2. 2004 against the Yankees, lost a blowout and inexplicably blew a 5-1 lead in a game Santana was pitching by taking him out after five innings for no reason. And of course, they lose today. That leaves them with a 2-7 postseason mark in the dome since their glory days.

Of course, many will mark the dome as being a clear home-field advantage because nobody can possibly see a white ball in a white roof on fly balls, right? Well, this phenomenon is exposed about once a game, tops. Once a game, someone loses a ball in the roof and looks like an idiot. It looks great on a blooper reel, but rarely does it make the difference in the game.

Tuesday, it almost made the difference in the game as the A's lost a deep fly ball in the lights in the ninth inning. Might have helped if Thomas hadn't hit that damn insurance homer that might not have happened had Santana stayed in the game. Yes, a two-homer game off Santana is something I have to see to believe.

I have to give credit to Nick Punto for making a great catch late in this game. Not just a great catch, but one with props and style points. Punto looked like he was going to dive into the third base/foul stands for the ball, but then he stopped and thought, "wait a minute: Jeter already did that, Jermaine Dye already did that, I have to do something different, something creative," so he leapt up, reached out, and caught the ball while getting his spikes caught in the netting of a pitchback near the bullpen. You can't make this stuff up. So anyways, this got him a perfect 50 from the NBA dunk contest panel. Okay, so maybe you can make some of this stuff up.

Everyone hates all games played in domes. Why? Is it unnatural? Yes. Is it unholy and not the way God intended? How should I know? But where else will you see the things you see in these wacky games? Doubles off the hefty bag in right, pop flies hitting catwalks and speakers, outfielders losing balls in white backgrounds, high bounces on artificial turf, an excuse to amplify raucous crowd noise in one giant indoor echo, and overall, just an alternate look to the game. Considering that artificial turf is disappearing from the game, and domes are mostly being replaced by actual ballparks or at least those retractable roof compromises, you don't see much of these kinds of wacky Nintendoball games anymore. I say enjoy them while they're still around, unholiness and all.

The Cardinals must have entered the postseason in one of the worst slides of all time. Yet you watch one of their games and can't help but realize this is still the same core of players who made the LCS last year and the World Series the year before. They still have Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds (now returned), David Eckstein, and Chris Carpenter starting for them. That's hard to say they don't have a fighting chance regardless of their recent pass.

Early in Cards/Padres Game 1, Pujols pops it up behind home plate. Here comes Piazza throwing off the mask and trying to catch a foul pop behind home plate. "Now's your chance, Mike," I think to myself, "to show everyone you're not really that bad of a catcher defensively, to show everyone you're not too old to play this game. Just settle under and squeeze like most catchers do ... never mind." Piazza not only missed the pop fly, he ran into the backstop screen while the ball drops two inches next to him, so he looks even worse. And then Pujols hits a monster blast ... and Piazza looks even worse again. Maybe the Mets did the smart thing after all.

Here's a perfect example of how a pennant race can disguise the truth. The Cardinals' slide made you forget that their team really isn't that bad, while the Padres' hot streak to win the west made you forget that their team really isn't that good. Funny how that works. Look at their lineup. Dave Roberts, Piazza, who else? Carpenter pitched like an ace, Jake Peavy pitched like he wanted the old bald guy with the robe in the Padres' secondary logo to make contact.

Another brilliant thing about baseball in the 21st century that came up plenty of times today. Managerial interviews during crucial playoff games. This just blows my mind. Let's make a manager talk about key moves and moments of a game as its unfolding, risk not making crucial moves during an inning because he is obligated to speak to the press, and get second-guessed about the bad move he made last inning. He has to step out of character and speak formally when he really shouldn't have to (isn't it bad enough to only have to deal with the media after the game is over?).

But the worst repercussion is what happened in Game 3 of the 2004 World Series. Tony LaRussa was interviewed right after pitcher Jason Marquis forgot that it was okay to score from third on a routine grounder to the right side and got picked off first base by David Ortiz. Completely demoralizing event. And the disoriented skipper had to talk about it only minutes later. I'd be pretty pissed, too. Yet for some reason, LaRussa is still doing these silly interviews. Get the manager's take after the game, guys.

Has anyone fallen from grace farther and quicker than the Mets? No Pedro Martinez, now quite possibly no El Duque, and they don't know who will pitch. The rumblings about this seem strange. When it was reported that the Yankees' Randy Johnson had been speculated to be out, it was still ruled possible he could still be healthy to go. El Duque is a Cuban warrior, made to pitch in awful conditions before coming here. He strains a calf during sprinting/stretching exercises (oh, the irony) and nothing has been confirmed on an MRI and everyone is already writing him off? If he is out, it may be a death blow to the Mets, or it may not. At this point, no one has any idea how good or how old El Duque is anymore. If these injuries keep up, though, at some point you're going to run out of capable starters.

Anyone notice how quickly ESPN games go compared to how slowly FOX games go? ESPN has about an eight minute pre-game segment, and makes no demands in terms of commercial breaks, and very little post-game. Games seem to fly by because the game is all you're watching. Bells-and-whistles FOX has to have a big 21 minute pre-game show so they can run ads, ads and more ads. Then stretch the between innings time for more ads. The pre-game-post-game segments at the studio really mean nothing anymore.

If anything in baseball is a sure thing (and it usually isn't), the Yankees should beat the Tigers violently and relentlessly over the head with a jagged caveman's club for three straight games. Or so I keep telling myself. My faith in this is confirmed by the Yankees' five-run third inning of Yanks/Tigers Game 1. All five runs scored with nobody out.

Said faith is shaken by the spirited Tigers' comeback. This is supposed to be just a bad team coming in. They are a team that could not beat the Royals at home one out of three with a division title on the line. 'Nuff said. Detroit scores three in the fifth, and trade off a run each to make it 7-4. Suddenly, Tim McCarver is referring to the Yankee bullpen as their "soft underbelly" once again (I'm almost certain he used that exact term at some time during last year's Angels series). All this after Joe Torre decided the Yankee bullpen was so good that Mariano Rivera only needed to pitch the ninth inning from now on. Come on, Joe ... this is the playoffs now, remember?

How do you determine, define, or plan out a "good" bullpen, anyway? Aside from your closer, middle relievers are a strange (but common) requirement. First of all, no little kids dream that when they grow up, they could be a middle reliever and hold a lead for 2/3 of an inning before being taken out for somebody because he throws with a different arm than you. Any pitcher who's worth his salt from day one will be made either a starter or a closer right away. Therefore, in order to become a middle-reliever, you have to be maligned by some organization in the first place. And yet a team needs to collect a bunch of "solid, consistent" middle relievers in order to win championships?
This whole process just seems maddening and almost purely luck/chance/timing-driven.

Take the champion 1996 Yankees, for example. They had a dreadful middle relief core of Graeme Lloyd, Brian Boehringer, David Weathers, and Jeff Nelson. None of those pitchers had what you'd call a good year in '96 — in fact, Lloyd was downright awful. Then the playoffs started and magically, randomly even, these four guys are getting people out as if Wade Boggs had put a gun to their heads (and I wouldn't put it past him). Add Rivera (then just a rookie phenom) and Wetteland (heart-attack type closer who had had a shaky season the year before) and voila, you have one of the greatest bullpens of all-time. Maddening, I tell you!

Anyways, Scott Proctor, Mike Myers, Ron Villone, Kyle Farnsworth, and Brian Brunei could be a strength of the Yankees or a weakness, just as relievers Tom Gordon/Tanyon Sturtze/Paul Quantrill of the '04-'05 Yankees at times were seen as both a strength and in the final tally, a weakness.

Jeter bails out the sagging bullpen with a big clutch home run to make it 8-4. If A-Rod had hit this home run in the same situation, he'd be criticized because he only hit it with the Yankees already three runs ahead and never in big spots. (I'm not saying Jeter isn't clutch, and I'm not saying that A-Rod is, either.) When Jeter hit this, though, the crowd went nuts as if it was a walk-off shot. In his defense, he just went 5-for-5 in a playoff game. Very tough feat by any standard, although by my watch, that was easy to overlook in favor of the more obvious (at that time) storyline of the Yankees' incredible shrinking lead.

Predictably, the Yanks hang on to win. That jagged caveman's club worked like a charm in the hands of the Yankee lineup.

Wednesday, it's on to Queens just a few miles away to see if the Mets' pitching staff can piece together any semblance of a start against Team Destiny or if the Dodgers will just start doing that whole consecutive home runs thing again until the home-plate umpire begs them to stop. If not, then maybe at least we can hope to see the first truly memorable game of the '06 playoffs, because none of Tuesday's games reached that level.

If and when that does happen, maybe then I'll have a good reason to send you readers a more conventional, more formalized column. You know, one with an actual point to it. Until then, fellow baseball fans, farewell.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 9:12 PM | Comments (0)

October 3, 2006

Week 4 NFL Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Congratulations to Laveranues Coles, Bart Scott, Matt Stover, Rex Grossman, Ken Hamlin, and John Carney, the NFL's Players of the Month for September.

* Those of you who tuned out of the finish to Cowboys' blowout win over Tennessee missed Moose Johnston's eloquent explanation of football as the ultimate team sport.

* Peyton Manning normally doesn't take many sacks, but he's already been sacked seven times this year, and at least once in every game.

* Unpleasant trend: networks showing commercials during replay challenges, instead of showing replays.

* Joe Gibbs needs to be careful with Clinton Portis, or his star running back will be overworked and won't stay healthy.

***

In another weekend of meaningful early-season matchups, no contest was more significant than Sunday night's meeting between the Bears and Seahawks at Soldier Field. In a matchup between the NFC's last two undefeated teams, Chicago left no doubt about which is better right now.

The Bears dictated on offense and defense, on the ground and in the air. I was particularly struck by the play of Tommie Harris, who made a bunch of big plays, creating headaches all night for Seattle's offensive linemen, who were among the league's best in 2005. The other stars on defense were Lance Briggs, who led the team with nine tackles, and Ricky Manning, Jr., who had two interceptions and a tipped ball.

Chicago dominated the contest despite some bad officiating that favored the Seahawks. Particularly egregious was a call near the end of the first half, when Mike Brown was flagged for unnecessary roughness. It was a 15-yard penalty, and helped set up a Seattle field goal, but Darrell Jackson was still in bounds when Brown tackled him, and the hit looked clean. Insult to injury, on the next play Matt Hasselbeck should have been called for intentional grounding, but wasn't. Fortunately, the game wasn't close, and officiating had no impact on the result.

Now, on to the power rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Chicago Bears [3] — I normally hate it when fans bring signs to football games, but I appreciate the one NBC found near the end of Sunday night's game: "Dear Rex, We are sorry for all of the bad stuff we said." A lot of fans, from Chicago and around the country, have said bad stuff about Grossman, and through four games this year, he seems to have silenced most or all of his critics. So, Rex, I'm sorry, too.

2. Indianapolis Colts [1] — Deserved to lose, but usual assumptions don't apply to this team. Third-and-15 is manageable for the Colts. When they get the ball back, down by four, with 2:20 remaining, you expect them to win. Then, sure enough, Manning only uses a minute and a half on the game-winning drive.

3. Cincinnati Bengals [2] — There are a lot of problems here, and they were all on display against the Patriots: pass protection (4 sacks), run defense (236 yards, 5.8 avg), discipline (9 penalties). Some Cincinnati fans blamed the absence of Chris Henry — who was inactive for disciplinary reasons — for the team's problems on Sunday, but it wasn't Kelley Washington giving up 20-yard runs to Laurence Maroney out there.

4. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Everyone else has them in the top three, and that's a difficult position to criticize, but I've watched three of Baltimore's games this season, and the team I've seen is very good, not great. The Ravens have played three terrible teams, blowing out two of them and barely escaping with a win against the other. They also beat a very good team on Sunday, but the game was at home, and Baltimore — which went 0-8 on the road last season — still hasn't proven it can play well on the road. If the Ravens win at Denver in Week 5, I guarantee they'll make the top three.

5. Philadelphia Eagles [6] — With Brian Westbrook out of the lineup, Donovan McNabb led the team to victory. Last season, when McNabb was playing hurt, people with short memories talked about how unproductive the Eagles' QB was without a marquee receiver. This season, McNabb leads the NFL in passing yards and TDs, with a passer rating over 100. On Monday, McNabb also proved that he can still make plays with his feet, rushing for 47 yards and two touchdowns. When he's healthy, McNabb is one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the NFL.

6. San Diego Chargers [5] — Lost a heartbreaker in Baltimore, but the defense continues to impress. San Diego held the Ravens' offense to 206 total yards, generating three turnovers and limiting Jamal Lewis to 34 yards and a 2.3 average. Antonio Gates has been quiet since Drew Brees left town, and it would be a big boost for the offense if he can get on track.

7. Seattle Seahawks [7] — At the end of last season, Hasselbeck looked like one of the top half-dozen QBs in the NFL. Through four games this season, he has more interceptions than touchdowns, tied for worst in the league in picks. He's also been sacked 13 times, putting him on pace for a career-high 52, and his passer rating for the season is a mediocre 74.6.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — A couple of weeks ago I wrote that I still think Pittsburgh is a very good team, but could start the season 1-3. Next week, the 1-2 Steelers travel to San Diego. The defending champs have a brutal schedule, and it doesn't get much easier in the next few weeks.

9. Denver Broncos [9] — This team has a ton of potential, and it showed some of that in Week 3 against New England. The defense has been superb, allowing only one TD all season, but the offense has yet to generate more than 17 points in a game.

10. New England Patriots [14] — Embarrassed against Denver, they bounced back with a statement game against the Bengals, routing their opponents in Cincinnati. The Bengals are an incomplete team, and New England took advantage of that on both offense and defense, but there are still obvious vulnerabilities here. Circle November 5 on your calendar: Colts at Pats.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars [4] — Entered Week 4 with the best time of possession in the league, but had a deficit of more than 10 minutes against Washington. The Jaguars are awfully good for a 2-2 team, and the hardest part of their schedule is behind them now, but Jacksonville will have to wait until Week 7 to get its first road win of the '06 season.

12. New York Giants [12] — Tom Coughlin just can't keep his team happy. A couple years ago, there was that ridiculously overblown story about Michael Strahan getting fined for not getting to a meeting early. Last season, it was Tiki Barber publicly saying that the Giants were outcoached in their playoff loss. Now it's Jeremy Shockey, always a model of restraint, saying the same in an expletive-laden rant to reporters. Being an NFL coach is a difficult job that entails much more than Xs and Os.

13. New Orleans Saints [13] — Finally got their first loss, on the road against a decent team, and that doesn't get you dropped from this part of the rankings. The next three games are at home, and the Saints' performance in those games should go a long way towards revealing whether New Orleans is for real.

14. Atlanta Falcons [15] — Defense absolutely smothered the Cardinals. Patrick Kerney had three sacks. Rod Coleman had two fumble recoveries. Michael Boley had seven tackles, a sack, an interception, and a forced fumble. The Falcons allowed just 31 rushing yards — with a 1.2 average — and limited Arizona's explosive receiving corps to 156 yards, intercepting both Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart.

15. Minnesota Vikings [11] — Everyone between here and 21st is too low. Minnesota actually looks like a team that needs to be taken very seriously in the NFC, but Atlanta is 3-1, with its only loss coming at New Orleans, and just won by 20 points. Still, the Vikings are the only team to finish respectably against Chicago this year, and 15th doesn't do that justice. One problem that does need to be fixed is penalties. Minnesota had 12 on Sunday and easily tops the league in that category, with a total of 38 so far this season.

16. Dallas Cowboys [16] — Andre Gurode got 30 stitches in his head, but apparently is going to be fine and should be able to play next week in Philadelphia. Albert Haynesworth stepping on Gurode's head — helmet off — with his cleat is probably the dirtiest thing I've ever seen on a football field. The league suspended Haynesworth for a record five games, but I don't think that's enough. I would have liked to see him suspended for the remainder of the 2006 season, and he should face criminal assault charges in Tennessee.

17. Kansas City Chiefs [17] — Absolutely destroyed the Niners, posting the most dominant victory in Week 4, but I couldn't move them ahead of Dallas, which had its own runaway victory and is over .500. The Chiefs more than doubled San Francisco's offensive yardage. It's nice to see Dante Hall returning punts for touchdowns again.

18. Carolina Panthers [18] — Important division wins in each of the last two weeks, but I couldn't move them ahead of Kansas City, which just won 41-0. The defense needs to improve immensely if this team is going to be a serious Super Bowl contender. Carolina finally stopped the run, but did so at the expense of pass defense, allowing Drew Brees to pass for 349 yards and a 110.5 passer rating.

19. Washington Redskins [19] — Very impressive in the last two weeks, with a blowout win against a bad team and a spirited victory against a good one, but I couldn't move them ahead of Carolina, which knocked off the previously undefeated Saints and is clearly a different team with Steve Smith back. Washington can identify, since it's a much different team with Portis back. Just as important as Portis, though, is Santana Moss. What a special player he's become.

20. New York Jets [20] — Gave the Colts all they could handle, and excited a lot of people with that string of laterals at the end of the game, but I couldn't move them ahead of Washington, which beat another good team. I liked John Madden's take on criticism of Eric Mangini's decision to go for a touchdown on 4th-and-goal. Madden noted that someone who would have played it safe on fourth down, kicking the field goal, probably would have played it safe earlier in the game, too, eschewing the onside kick that led to a Jets touchdown.

21. Buffalo Bills [21] — The last team rated too low. The Bills got their first really quality win of the season, but I couldn't move them ahead of the Jets, who beat them last week and nearly upset Indianapolis in Week 4. J.P. Losman had an efficient game against the Vikings, and the defense controlled the contest, shutting down Minnesota's ground game and intercepting Brad Johnson twice, only the second time since 2003 that he's thrown two picks in a game.

22. St. Louis Rams [23] — Ranked correctly. It annoys me that last week I praised the defense and this week it gave up 34 points to Detroit, the Lions' highest total of the season. Former Rams coach Mike Martz is Detroit's new offensive coordinator, so maybe he just exploited weaknesses in St. Louis' defense, but if Green Bay lights up the scoreboard in Week 5, the Rams are in trouble.

23. Miami Dolphins [22] — Every team between here and 29th is too high. On Sunday night, I dreamed that Joey Harrington was starting at quarterback for the Dolphins. It was one of those really realistic dreams that it takes you a while to realize it was just a dream, although for some reason, in the dream, Harrington was No. 55 (which is actually worn by linebacker Keith Newman). He'd never admit it, but I wonder whether Nick Saban would rather have Gus Frerotte back than Daunte Culpepper.

24. Green Bay Packers [24] — Both teams were missing their top running backs on Monday night, and it showed, as each team lost a fumble on the exchange between QB and RB. The Packers have bigger problems, though. Brett Favre has few weapons to work with and is painfully inconsistent. The defense is a wreck, and Green Bay is one of only five teams to allow more than 100 points this season.

25. Arizona Cardinals [25] — When Dennis Green coached the Vikings, they consistently had one of the league's best offenses. So far, though, he hasn't had that kind of success in Arizona. Even when the Cardinals post big numbers, it's because they're playing from behind and passing a lot.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Got off to a disappointing start this season, but things don't get any easier. Nine of the Bucs' next 11 games are against teams at or above .500. The exceptions are at the Giants and Steelers. I'll be shocked if it happens, but Tampa has an outside shot at going 0-16.

27. Cleveland Browns [28] — There were a weirdly high number of Charlie Frye references in last week's column, and I've been told that I made Frye sound like the worst player in the league, which he's certainly not. In fact, I started Frye against Oakland in my fantasy league. The Browns are a young team that's still coming together, and I think they'll be better at the end of the season than they are now.

28. San Francisco 49ers [27] — They've been blown out each of the last two weeks, and lost to the Cardinals in Week 1, but they somehow beat St. Louis — the Rams' only loss this season — in Week 2, so I can't rank them last. Yet. The loser of next week's Oakland/San Francisco matchup is clearly a very, very bad team.

29. Detroit Lions [29] — Allowed over 30 points for the third game in a row. St. Louis averaged 15.7 points in its first three games this season, but exploded for 41 against the Lions. New quarterback Jon Kitna does seem to be settling in, and trails only McNabb and Manning in passing yards.

30. Houston Texans [32] — Sackfest in Houston on Sunday. The Dolphins and Texans have allowed a combined 36 sacks this year, and each team tallied five in Week 4. Houston has a bye next week, but the team plays on the road in four of its next five games, and six of the next eight.

31. Oakland Raiders [31] — Last year, Raiders fans were incensed when I predicted that their team would finish 6-10. They went 4-12. At the beginning of this season, Oakland fans complained when I ranked the team 27th and called the defense subpar. The team is terrible and the defense is subpar. Last week, Raider Nation took offense to my suggestion that "Randy Moss seems washed up." Moss is on pace for 37 catches, 448 yards, and five TDs, all career-lows. He's also on pace for career-lows in first downs, receptions of at least 20 yards, and receptions of at least 40 yards.

32. Tennessee Titans [30] — Vince Young is still adjusting both to the speed of NFL defenders and to not having a superior offensive line. It's going to be a long year and a steep learning curve for Young, so the coaching staff will have to make sure the rookie quarterback doesn't get too discouraged by mistakes and disappointments early in his career.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:17 PM | Comments (5)

Lessons Learned: NHL '06-'07 Preview

Last year's NHL season was a learning experience for everyone — players, coaches, refs, fans. As we get ready to open the gates on post-lockout season No. 2, it's time to take a look at the lessons of last season — and how they can apply to this season!

Lesson 1: Anyone Can Win the Stanley Cup

It's been said before and it's worth repeating again: with parity, speed, and a salary cap, anyone can make a worst-to-first transition. Does that mean that Chicago or Pittsburgh are ready to leap to the forefront of the NHL? Let's look at the components that made up the Hurricanes' championship team:

• Defense by committee: No one stood out, for better or worse on the bluelines. No superstars, but no bums, either, means that you get 60 solid minutes.
• Solid goaltending: You couldn't win without good goaltending before and you can't now.
• A rising star: Eric Staal blossomed in his second NHL season, giving the Hurricanes a true No. 1 center.
• Speed and transition: Turn the puck over, skate your tail off. Forechecking's not about skill, it's about speed and work ethic.
• Career seasons: Hello, Matt Cullen, Justin Williams, Erik Cole, etc.
• An inspirational leader: No one doubted Rod Brind'amour on or off the ice.

The Canes were a bunch of untested young talent and mediocre defense before last season, but now they're filled with mature young talent and a steady defense. This shows that if a team's young talent can put it together all at once, today's NHL offers very big rewards. That's why Pittsburgh may challenge as soon as next season. This season, however, it's a crapshoot to see whose farm team will come of age.

Lesson 2: Platoon Goaltending Works

Marty Biron and Ryan Miller. Marty Gerber and Cam Ward. With two good goaltenders, all a coach has to do is ride a hot hand and he's always got a safety net. It may not make for the happiest of goaltenders, but it can win a championship. So don't think that San Jose, Anaheim, or Buffalo are itching to make moves just yet.

Lesson 3: Monster Trades Can Happen in the Salary Cap Era

The salary cap was supposed to be the thing that made monster trades impossible. Try telling that to Joe Thornton. Teams with cap space are suddenly at an advantage when other cap-crunching teams fall into trouble and GMs get desperate. We may not see another MVP get moved this season, but don't be surprised if big names get shipped out of imploding teams.

Lesson 4: Rookies Can Make a Difference

Hello, Sidney Crosby. Hello, Alexander Ovechkin. Glad to have you back for year two. Now, let's see who's on the doorstep. Phil Kessel, Gilbert Brule, Wojtek Wolski, Matt Carle, and Alex Radulov are just a handful of rookies who can potentially make immediate impacts on their club. Oh yeah, and some guy named Evgeni Malkin will miss the first few weeks of the season — he's supposed to be pretty good.

Lesson 5: Chris Pronger is Awesome

Mr. Pronger was the best player in last year's playoffs, and there's no reason why that can't continue in Anaheim. Early indications show that Pronger will play on the power play with Ducks captain Scott Niedermayer and separately in other situations. That means one of them will be on the ice at all times at even strength, and the power play will have two of the deadliest blue line weapons of a generation. Advantage: Anaheim.

Lesson 6: Shootout Success Means Nothing in the Playoffs

Remember Dallas' amazing shootout record? That sure didn't help them out when it came to playoff hockey against Colorado. Shootout wins can inflate point totals and increase standings, but they're ultimately fairly meaningless when everything's on the line.

Lesson 7: Calling the Rules is a Good Thing

The competition committee — and everyone else in the world — deemed last season's set of rules an overwhelming success. That means this season will be more of the same. There are some small tweaks (see below), but by and large, expect the same hooking and holding calls we witnessed last season.

Lesson 8: Blade Curve Limitations? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Limitations

Hey, Ilya Kovalchuk and Jaromir Jagr, were you guys happy about the increase blade curve length? I'd have to think so, considering how often you guys got caught with illegal sticks last season. Alexander Ovechkin sure is happy — last year's Calder winner claims that he can fire the puck even harder now that he can put a more wicked curve on his stick. You wanted more scoring? You got more scoring.

Lesson 9: OLN is Where?

American hockey fans had a hard time finding games broadcast on OLN last season because, well, OLN was a pretty obscure channel that wasn't carried by every satellite/cable provider. Just like last year, OLN will be impossible to locate, except for a different reason. If you haven't heard, OLN is now called Versus, and Versus will have broadcast exclusivity for stretches of Mondays and Tuesdays. That means you better figure out where that darn channel is sooner rather than later, otherwise no hockey for you!

Lesson 10: Speed Kills, Skill Wins

Boy, if you haven't figured this out before, then you're in for a difficult year as GM or fantasy GM. The Flyers spent a combined $7 million last season on Mike Rathje and Derian Hatcher and both proved an ill fit for the smaller, quicker NHL. On the other hand, Brian Gionta went bonkers and scored over 40 goals, and a whole slew of Buffalo Sabres used their skating legs to get to the Conference Finals. The Calgary Flames had speed, but no skill, and even though they could keep up with everyone, they couldn't put the puck in the net to save their (playoff) lives. Speed and skill — put the two together and you've got the recipe for success.

The puck drops on October 4th. Learn your lessons now, and enjoy the season!

Posted by Mike Chen at 2:54 PM | Comments (0)

October 2, 2006

Peanut Brittle Pedro

When the New York Mets signed right-handed pitcher Pedro Martinez in the winter of 2004 to a four-year, $53 million dollar contract, speculation was that it was a two-year investment with an added two as a gamble. After an abundance of injuries in just year two, the Mets are getting short-changed even worse.

On Saturday, Mets General Manager Omar Minaya announced that Martinez has a torn rotator cuff in his pitching shoulder and will undergo surgery, which will put him on the shelf until after next year's All-Star Break.

A quick recap of his woes this summer is anything but quick. He missed the majority of spring training with an arthritic big right toe. Then he had trouble with his right hip and his right calf. After he was shelled in Atlanta recently, the team announced he had a tear in his left calf, with him being shut down for the season. Then the announcement concerning his shoulder followed.

Heading into the playoffs without Martinez is not a shock. He had his worse season statistically and has been on and off the DL all summer, while the Mets have dominated in his absence. He started off strong by going 5-0 in April, but basically disappeared after that.

Martinez had two long spells on the DL over the course of the season. He missed practically two full months prior to the latest maladies. He had 23 starts, going 9-8 with a 4.48 ERA. Not exactly what you would expect from your supposed number one starter.

For what it's worth, signing Martinez did help the Mets in many other ways other than wins and losses on the field. The team needed an identity after struggling for three seasons. They had become a farce under former manager Art Howe and the regrettable Scott Kazmir trade. A big splash was needed and Pedro had talent, pizzazz, and charm. He became the face of the franchise and put them back on the map.

How much him being on the Mets went into consideration in obtaining other big names is debatable. But Carlos Beltran and Billy Wagner came afterwards and having Martinez in the fold could not have hurt. It proved the Mets were serious about winning in the present and were not afraid to spend money to do so.

He has put together a very nice career. Coming out of the Los Angeles Dodgers organization, who have always had a knack for rearing young players for the big leagues, he did not make an impact until being traded to the Montreal Expos for DeLino Deshields. He then moved on to the Boston Red Sox and eventually the Mets.

If his career is in jeopardy, then at least he has done part of his job. Martinez did deliver a winner, with the Mets finishing above .500 in his first year and winning the National League East in year two. He may not have been a big part of the team this season, but his mere presence gave them a boost the day he was signed.

Posted by Joe Pietaro at 2:59 PM | Comments (0)

I Hate Mondays: Oil Still Valuable

After a wildly successful season last year, belief in the Edmonton Oilers has tapered off like the price of oil. Not many folks had faith in them last season and not many seem to trust them this year. The support has dwindled so much so that Edmonton has not been included as one of the eight playoff teams on many preseason forecasts.

A large factor for the cold-shouldering that the Oilers are receiving is because all-star defenseman Chris Pronger, who demanded a trade shortly after the Stanley Cup run, is no longer a part of the team.

While the blue line is sure to be thin without him, one way to make up for that deficiency is with strong goaltending. Last season, the Oilers tried to make up for shoddy goaltending with a strong defensive corps, but that theory flopped. The tandem of Jussi Markkanen and Ty Conklin let down the team time and time again with sub par netminding, so much so that that team targeted a top-notch goalie at the trade deadline.

This season, with a number one goalie in hand, they plan to try the opposite.

The Oilers' defense was stellar last season, leading the league in shots against (25.5 per game) and limiting the amount of shots their average goalies faced. But that still didn't seem to help the team so much until they secured the goaltender position with Dwayne Roloson. After an outstanding showing in the playoffs, he's back to carry the load at the back end with a new three-year contract in hand.

While there is pessimism surrounding the back end of this team, the front lines are burgeoning with plenty of optimism. Forwards Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, and Jarret Stoll all experienced breakout seasons last year, each setting new personal bests for points. Considering Hemsky is only 23-years-old, Stoll is only 24 and Horcoff is only 28, these players are still on their way up in this league.

That's not even mentioning Fernando Pisani, who led all postseason players with 14 goals and was a Conne Smythe Trophy candidate, and Joffrey Lupul, who was acquired in the trade for Pronger. Lupul has only spent two seasons in the NHL but already looks like a 75-point player. He notched 53 points last season and led the Anaheim — then Mighty — Ducks with 9 postseason goals.

To this point, team leader and perennial all-star Ryan Smyth has yet to be mentioned, as well as quality role players Petr Sykora, Raffi Torres, and Ethan Moreau.

The Edmonton Sun recently reported that the top three lines will look like this:

Line 1: Smyth, Horcoff, Lupul
Line 2: Hemsky, Sykora, Torres
Line 3: Moreau, Stoll, Pisani

All things considered, those are three quality lines who will be finding the back of the net very frequently.

Sure, Pronger is gone. But there is a talented rotation of forwards and the goaltending will be much more reliable. There is no reason to think that this team won't be back in the playoffs.

Edmonton Oilers and doubting the Edmonton Oilers mix like Mondays and me.

"The desire to seem clever often keeps us from being so."
— François VI Duke de La Rochefoucauld

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 2:11 PM | Comments (0)