(There's nothing written here because, frankly, March Madness needs no introduction. Well, other than me pleading with Gus Johnson to call the Ohio State games and drop a "Great Oden's Raven" reference. I don't ask for much.)
Midwest
Best Game — While many are focusing on Notre Dame and Winthrop, I've got my eye on Butler and Old Dominion. What's that? You love games where the winning team's score won't break the speed limit? The Bulldogs will try to defend their new-found status among the traditional powers against a team that looks eerily similar to Butler's Cinderellian incarnations of tournaments past.
Against the Chalk — ODU over Butler. While picking the favorites might be the safest course to office-pool glory, what's the fun in that? By selectively going out on the double-digit-seed limb, you can earn some bonus points and respect around the cubicle. Looking at this "classic" 12-5 pairing (when did these become classic, analysts?), the Bulldogs have lacked the sharpness they showed in winning the Preseason NIT at times during conference play. The Monarchs, on the other hand, should come into this game with a feeling of new-life. Teams given second chances, especially those mid-major at-larges, by squeaking into the field tend to be dangerous.
X-Factor — Big men in the bottom half. Some will tell you "slumping" Wisconsin is ripe for the picking (how is losing to the No. 1 team in the country twice in eight days a slump?). But the Badgers' flaw that Ohio State exposed — namely a lack of front-court production now that Brian Butch may be gone for the tournament — likely won't be exploited by their companions in the bottom half of the Midwest. Oregon and Georgia Tech have dangerous, athletic guards, but probably can't sting Wisconsin inside enough to pull the upset. However, if any of their challengers do find some scoring out of their bigs, Bo Ryan's trademark offense might get swung right out of the tournament.
Didn't You Used to Be — Arizona. Don't fall for them. Lute Olsen's Wildcats seem destined to play in these eight-nine games every year, and every year somebody falls in love with their potential and suggests they might shock a No. 1 in round two (this year's winner: Dick Vitale). Not this year. Sure, Chase Buddinger has the talent to take over a game, but not against these Gators. Assuming Arizona escapes a Purdue team that has warmed up in the last month, look for the 'Cats to get pummeled.
Wide-Open Pod — Maryland's Buffalo pod. Every year, it seems, one four-team grouping at a location gets busted wide-open and produces a wild Sweet Sixteen cast member. None of the four pods in the Midwest seems wildly open, but this one at least contains two dangerous underdogs. ODU's case is made above, and similarly, Davidson is a program that seems to play someone hard every year (last year it was two-seed Ohio State). Mix that with two favorites in Maryland and Butler that have certainly had their shaky moments this year, and the potential is there.
Seedy Seed — The most eye-catching seed in this bracket is Miami's No. 14. For a team that went 18-14, that's certainly a lot of MAC respect. Then again, the Red Hawks' reward for the seed: a trip to Spokane, WA, and quite a few Nike-clad Duck fans waiting for them.
Regional Final Prediction — Florida over Wisconsin. The top two seeds seem safely destined to meet in St. Louis (if only Carolina were in this region, plenty of Heel and Arch jokes could have scared you away from reading the rest of this column). The next two seeds, Oregon and Maryland, have been up-and-down throughout the season. Sure, both have played their best ball of late, but the Badgers and Gators have both topped the rankings during the season and rely on veterans with plenty of March experience on their resumes.
West
Best Game — (with twisted arm) Pitt vs. Wright State. The best day-one game in this quadrant? What is none, Alex? In a field of dull (on paper, at least) first-round games, perhaps an upset that nobody is picking is the least unimpressive. Pitt's Aaron Gray has done little to convince me he is the game-controlling force some project him as. Wright State won the regular season and tournament titles for a Horizon League that, last-time I checked, included giant-killer Butler.
Against the Chalk — I'll second my choice of Wright State, but hardly with much confidence. Some people will like VCU to put Duke out of its misery once and for all, but don't forget Duke has made the Sweet Sixteen nine times in a row. Sure, those were far superior Duke teams, but you better believe the Devils spent the time they freed up by losing early in the ACC tournament tightening up their fixable flaws. This is a team lacking the renewable resource of confidence, not talent or coaching, which are far more precious commodities.
X-Factor — Coach K. I know, I know, this is supposed to be the year everyone watches the Durham Devils feast on crow. But this program everyone loves to hate is like the clichéd monsters of horror movies. They may have been shot, stabbed, poisoned, exploded, and dribble-penetrated to death over the course of the year, but it's going to take one more stake through the heart or silver bullet to put them down for good. Put it this way: do you think VCU's players would feel better about their lofty 11-seed if they were facing a six-seed such as Vanderbilt? Do you think Pitt coach Jamie Dixon would rather see Notre Dame's Mike Brey, another six-seed's coach, across half court from him in the second round?
Didn't You Used to Be — (tie) Kentucky, Duke, and Illinois. While all three programs have had below-expectations seasons this year, the nod for underachievement probably should go to Tubby Smith's Wildcats. Duke and Illinois' malaise in 2007 reflects a downswing following periods of superior achievement. Sure, Kentucky made it to overtime in the Elite Eight two years ago on Patrick Sparks' shot that clung to the rim tighter than "Access Hollywood" to Anna Nicole's corpse, but the 'Cats have hovered well outside the realm of relevance for the better part of the 2000s.
Wide-Open Pod — Southern Illinois' Columbus pod. Sure, the Salukis have had a great year but perhaps have peaked too early. Additionally, their low-octane offense requires brutal intensity everyday on defense. Likewise, Virginia Tech has had its fair share of no-show dates against lower competition. Both of these favorites could be had by Illinois and Holy Cross.
Seedy Seed — Gonzaga's No. 10. Few programs have earned tournament respect to the tune that Mark Few's program has. However, past tournament success is supposed to be irrelevant to tournament selection and seeding, and it seems the Zags' name boosted a somewhat lackluster resume. Additionally, hearkening back to the year top-ranked Cincinnati lost Kenyon Martin to a broken leg in the C-USA tournament and was relegated to a two-seed, remember that the tournament committee can dock a team's seed based on the availability of players and how that reflects on the team's performance during the season. Josh Heytvelt's felonious fungus cost the Bulldogs' their best player, with whom they did much of their noteworthy damage in the early season. With Heytvelt out of the program, precedent would seem to suggest that Gonzaga slide a few lines past the 10-spot.
Regional Final Prediction — UCLA over Kansas. Historically, geography has been a strong influence on extended tournament runs, namely when high-seeds collide in the Regional stages. The Bruins' tour of NoCal (Sacramento and San Jose) is hardly a short stroll away from the City of Angels, but it's certainly more familiar than Kansas' potential treks to Chicago and San Jose. Consider this an unlucky draw for the Jayhawks, though they can take solace knowing that their tournament will last longer than the first round for the first time in three years.
East
Best Game — Marquette vs. Michigan State. By far the marquee showdown in the first round, the game features several compelling story lines. Tom Crean will face his boss and former mentor, Tom Izzo. Both teams lean upon star guards in the Golden Eagles' Dominique James and the Spartans' Drew Neitzel. But once the jumpball goes up, the best story will be a contrast in styles. Like most of Izzo's MSU teams but perhaps to a greater extreme than ever, these Spartans want to grind out victories. This preference will be resisted by James and the high-flying Eagles' desire to run.
Against the Chalk — Oral Roberts vs. Washington State. Tony Bennett, lyrical puns aside, has had a great year in Pullman. He has breathed life into a program that has been dormant for decades. But slow-down teams like these Cougars are susceptible to a hot opponent, and ORU has been through the fire before. Last year, the Golden Eagles hardly embarrassed themselves against top-seeded Memphis, a far more athletic group than Wazzu.
X-Factor — Kevin Durant. Sometimes life just isn't rocket science. The country's best player makes a non-descript group of Longhorns Grade-A-sleeper material. If K-D can lead the 'Horns into the Sweet Sixteen against North Carolina, it would setup a matchup of the best player against the country's best assemblage of young talent. It would certainly be better than when half of the guys on the floor meet in the NBA All-Star Weekend's Rookies Versus Sophomores Game in a year or two.
Didn't You Used to Be — Bob Knight. The head Red Raider made a run to the Sweet 16 two years ago, but do you honestly expect Bob Knight to get into another Final Four without a ticket? Knight has devised the perfect situation for himself in Lubbock. He can recruit B– quality talent that won't bolt early for the NBA or stand up to his bullying. In return, expectations will never be high enough at Texas Tech that Knight can take the blame for not threatening damage into March. However, the tradeoff is Knight will never again contend for a national title. Instead, he'll make cameos in these 10-7 games in the tournament most years before bowing out when his Red Raiders face teams blessed with superior talent. In this case, Knight's trip goes no further than round two and Georgetown.
Wide-Open Pod — Washington State's Sacramento pod. Vandy, Wazzu, Oral Roberts, and George Washington make up perhaps the least-daunting road to week two. Each of these teams is beatable, and yet each has earned its way into the field. Vanderblilt certainly has the most fire-power of the group, and thus, is the pick to emerge.
Seedy Seed — Georgetown's No. 2. It's not necessarily that Georgetown is a two, but the Hoyas are paired with the No. 2 top-seed in North Carolina. This means that the committee slotted Georgetown as the seventh best team in the tournament, immediately one spot behind Memphis. Certainly, the Tigers have done what's been asked of them, running the table from head to foot during the regular season and conference tournament. However, the Hoyas have come on strongly, and given how much emphasis the committee placed on conference tournament play, the Hoyas' dominance at Madison Square Garden and regular season supremacy in the Big East probably should have earned them a cushier spot as the two-seed in the South rather than in the much tougher East.
Regional Final Prediction — Georgetown over North Carolina. Believe me, I hate following the chalk as much as you hate reading me predict one vs. two matchups. Carolina is deeper than anyone, and I initially had them winning this matchup. However, I think Texas has a puncher's chance to beat Carolina, or at least make them work hard enough that they'll enter a game with the Hoyas two days later at a disadvantage.
Also, as Carolina has lost games this season, they have suffered from having too much talent. The Heels don't have one specific guy that they go to when they need a hoop, come hell or high water, especially as Tyler Hansbrough has struggled post Henderson-mugging-gate. Georgetown's guards have taken some deserved heat, but John Thompson has the kind of team that can slow down the Heels enough that the final scores lies somewhere in the 70s rather than the 90s.
South
Best Game — Nevada vs. Creighton. You know CBS would like nothing more than to feature a Reno vs. Omaha battle of the TV market giants. But both teams feature veteran stars who feel like they're on Van Wilder's seven-year plan. We've seen Nevada stun goliaths as an underdog, and we've seen them get unseated as a favorite. This time they sit somewhere in between, and who better to oppose them than another team the committee couldn't figure out a seed for. The Blue Jays have also been a March staple, having qualified in seven of the last nine Big Dances. Like ODU and Butler, but maybe not quite as extremely, this will be a grinder's paradise. Adding to the quality of this bout is what awaits the winner: a shot at a very beatable second-seeded Memphis.
Against the Chalk — Stanford. The 11–13 seeds all will have looks at knocking off bloated big-conference teams ripe for upsets. However, it's the underdog that is a big-boy itself to keep an eye on. Louisville has done a tremendous job rallying this season. In January Rick Pitino was ranting about picking off Pitt, Marquette, and a handful of other teams that seemed way out of the Cardinals' league. Instead, Louisville made a solid run at the top tier of a weak Big East and now stays in-state for its first two games.
However, Stanford is a team that has fought through early-season youth and late-season injuries to have a puncher's chance here. Perhaps the Cardinals will let all of that talk about their easy road go to their heads and find themselves literally at home for round two. And yes, I know this violates my importance of location mantra. Let's just play nice and make an amendment and suggest that the location factor is negated when that location is your arch-rival's home gym. Thanks for cooperating.
X-Factor — Acie Law's, uhh, intestinal fortitude. As a devout sabermetrician when it comes to baseball, I laugh at those who tout David Ortiz and Derek Jeter's "clutch abilities." Simply put, it doesn't make sense that a guy could somehow be better in big situations than he normally is, and the numbers back this up (go read Baseball Prospectus' "Baseball Between the Numbers" if you don't believe me). However, as a practicing hypocrite, I do believe in a sort of reverse clutchness in basketball. Simply put, there are guys who don't want the ball at the end of game. Does anyone remember the Western Conference Finals Game 7 where Sacramento King after Sacramento King fired hideous knuckleball bricks at the rim?
The point of this whole digression is this: Acie Law loves those shots. He can't get enough of those do-or-die moments at the ends of games. Texas A&M is a nice team that got a solid draw, but so is fellow three seed Oregon and fourth-seeded Maryland. The difference between them and the Aggies is that Law is not afraid to pull the trigger in big spots at the ends of games. If they're playing Ohio State in San Antonio for a spot in the Final Four, you know who's taking the shot for Texas A&M. Can you say the same for many other teams that don't have anyone named Kevin Durant? (It must be a Lone Star State thing.)
Didn't You Used to Be — Conference USA. I know realignments have probably hit them the hardest of anyone, but these guys used to matter. The days of Cincinnati stocking one- and two-seeds are over. There were even years not that long ago when the case could be made that it was the best conference in the country. Exit stage left: Louisville, Cincy, Marquette, et al; Enter: the dreaded "one-bid league" status. I know this conference never had the tradition of the other big boys, but it's rather sad the league's biggest story all year was whether Memphis would slip. Oh, they didn't? (Yawn.) We'll see you guys next year then.
Wide-Open Pod — Virginia's Columbus, OH pod. You might have noticed a trend here, as the pods with the four-seeds tend to be the most open because, well, they have the weakest top seeds. But again, this is a section of the draw where the double-digit seeds have legit shots to win twice, let alone their openers. Virginia has had a year of great improvement, but their guards have struggled at times down the stretch (see the NC State loss last week). Tennessee has played up against really strong competition (blowing out Florida, losing to Ohio State in Columbus in the last possession). However, the Vols have mentally sat out of a few too many. None of these four teams would shock me playing into week two.
Seedy Seed — Nevada's 7. I know they played in a rather weak WAC, and I'm sure their schedule strength numbers are way down. But this is a team with quality senior leaders that lost four games this year, including their upset in the conference tournament. Maybe this is the committee's revenge for the Wolfpack's tournament unpredictability in the past, but it's hard to ignore that just one game down the bracket, a Memphis team with only one fewer loss and an equally shaky conference has a two-seed.
Regional Final Prediction — Texas A&M over Ohio State. As an alum and lifelong fan of THE state university of Ohio, I agonized over this. "Greg Oden's playing his best," I pleaded with myself. "Mike Conley's showing senior-quality savvy." But at the end of the day, I always pay homage to the importance of location, and the Aggies getting to face the Bucks in San Antonio is too big a factor.
Fast-forward ahead two weeks and prepare to hear and read the griping over the location of this year's regionals. In three of my four Regional Finals, I have a one seed falling to a team that benefits from somewhat familiar digs (UCLA in San Jose, Georgetown in the Meadowlands, and the Aggies in San Antonio). Obviously, there's no real fix to this situation. Short of a home-court reward that would go against everything the tournament stands for, there's no way to know in advance that these things could happen. I guess we better just hope Georgia Tech doesn't get anywhere near the Final Four (hosted by, you guessed it, Atlanta).
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