2007 NFL Preview: Carolina Panthers

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

The Carolina Panthers were supposed to be one of the NFC's top outfits last season, but once they stepped onto they field, they were a bigger disappointment than the Amanda Beard Playboy spread.

The Panthers, who looked fairly sexy at all the skill positions, just didn't have the muscle upfront to compete in the trenches.

Starting left tackle Travelle Wharton tore his ACL in Week 1 and free agent center Justin Hartwig also was lost for the season in the opener.

With the front five in flux, the Panthers were immediately reeling right off the bat.

They had two tough, early losses — at home to Atlanta in Week 1 and on the road in Week 2 in Minnesota — that stung. The Panthers have always recovered in the face of adversity and they did again, winning their next four games.

But as the Panthers battled through a see-saw season, it became evident that they weren't going to compete for any trophies.

With shaky protection up front, Jake Delhomme's numbers dipped a little bit. He starting making uncharacteristically poor decisions and really hurt the team several fourth quarters (versus Cincinnati and Philadelphia).

In fairness, he didn't receive much help in the running game or passing game.

The Panthers spent a first-round pick on DeAngelo Williams in 2006, in hopes that he would team with DeShaun Foster to add a consistent ground attack.

Neither was exactly lethal as the Panthers averaged 103.7 rushing yards per game, amassing only 7 rushing touchdowns (only Tampa Bay and Oakland had less).

On defense, the theme of injury continued as the Eric Lindros of the NFL, linebacker Dan Morgan, suffered yet another concussion, missing 15 games in 2006. There is no question that Morgan is a gifted playmaker when he is on the field, but he can't shake a harrowing concussion history.

The Panthers found it tough to replace Morgan in the middle, though a better contingency plan should have been in place.

On the line, the Panthers opened their wallet for free agent tackle Ma'ake Kemoeatu, who underwhelmed in his first year. Factor in a season-long injury to Jordan Carstens and a late-season injury to Mike Rucker, and the Panthers were as beaten up on the front lines as anybody.

To put in plainly, the Carolina Panthers were one hell of an overrated squad heading into last season.

That fact, combined with injuries, kept the Panthers from the playoffs, but this coming year will pose them with the proverbial two roads diverging from the woods: are they a team that is on the ascent or on the decline?

2007's Worst Case Scenario

Expectations are still high in Carolina, considering that the Panthers have visited the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl twice of the last four years, but they have a ton of questions to answer if they plan to meet those lofty goals.

Dan Morgan...? The Panthers' stud middle linebacker has missed 40 of 96 games as a pro. Though he's been cleared to play, the Panthers cannot rely on this player long-term, especially since he has yet to play all 16 games in any of his six seasons. Also, one can't help but wonder if his concussion history is now in the back of his mind and how much it will effect him if he does play.

Who Will Be the Secondary Target on the Passing Game? Cutting Keyshawn Johnson was a foolish decision. Granted, he was mostly a disappointment last season, but how can you release a player who fills a vital need when there is no better options behind him?

The Panthers have been waiting on Drew Carter three years. If they believed in him, or if he had reasonable talent, he would have emerged by now. Here are the facts: he's caught 33 passes in the past two years and has shown little promise. At best, Carter can be a decent third option.

But in this scenario, since the Panthers cut Johnson, Carter is left as the default starter who will battle with rookie, Dwayne Jarrett. Here is breaking news: rookie receivers take longer to develop than almost any other position.

And in a situation where a pass-catching tight end would be an invaluable asset, given the lack of any sort of a receiving threat outside of Steve Smith, there is nobody present.

How Good is the Panthers' Defensive Line? On paper, the Panthers appear to have one of the top-five units in the league. That's on paper.

Julius Peppers is a given and you can expect a monster season from him considering the Indianapolis Colts just gave a lesser end in Dwight Freeney quarterback money.

At the other end position is Mike Rucker, who is 32 and is still feeling the effects of tearing his ACL last December. In the middle of the line, tackle Kris Jenkins is holding out for a new deal. He'll probably report, but there is a rift between himself and the organization. The Panthers tried to trade him in the offseason, but failed and when he looks over to his starting mate, Kemoeatu, and sees the type of money he makes, he can't help but want more money since he's the better player. Speaking of Kemoeatu, he needs play commensurate to his contract his year.

How Thin Are the Panthers at Safety? During training camp last season, the Panthers weren't impressed with rookie safety Nate Salley and cut him. As the season wore on, the Panthers brought him back out of desperation handed him some playing time.

He heads into this season as the starter, along side veteran Mike Minter, who will retire after this season. Minter is a shadow of what he used to be, which might give the Panthers the worst starting safety tandem in the league.

Deke Cooper and seventh-round pick C.J. Wilson are considered to be the "depth" at the position. Not only is the short-term future dark, so are the long-term prospects.

Are Thomas Davis, Ken Lucas, and Chris Gamble Going to Become Reliable? From safety and back to linebacker, the Panthers have raved about Davis' physical gifts, but he needs to improve if he wants to be a reliable starter.

Ken Lucas' teammates questioned his toughness last year and I might start to question his ability to play cornerback if he doesn't reassert himself. Chris Gamble, who starts opposite of Lucas, gave up his share of big plays, as well.

2007's Best Case Scenario

Dan Morgan...? While it's true that Morgan is constantly hampered by concussions, his talent on the field is undeniable. He's averaged 6.5 tackles per game over his NFL career and flies from sideline-to-sideline making plays. He's been cleared to play and has had nearly a full year to recover from his last concussion.

It is a leap of faith, but assuming he does play, the Panthers' defense becomes significantly better. He will take a significant amount of pressure of younger cohorts, Thomas Davis and rookie Jon Beason.

Who Will Be the Secondary Target on the Passing Game? The Panthers evidently had some in-house issues with Keyshawn Johnson and felt they were better off without him. They know their personnel better than anyone, so give them the benefit of the doubt.

Carter has been slow in his development, but one thing that can't be questioned about his game is his speed. Carter is a burner and should — by now — be an effective third wide receiver. That alone will take some pressure off of Smith.

Jarrett is a rookie, but Marques Colston was a rookie, too. Judging which rookies are more NFL ready than others is an inexact science, and considering the Panthers cut Johnson, maybe they feel he can replace Johnson's production already.

Jarrett is a similar receiver and should give the Panthers a solid red zone target. He caught 41 touchdown passes at USC in college.

How Good is the Panther's Defensive Line? Kris Jenkins may be a bit sour right now, but when he realizes that he's been limited to 21 of the last 51 games, he'll get back in the lineup and be effective.

With him back in tow, and a better second season from Kemoeatu, which can be expected since most athletes have a dip in production in the first year of a brand new contract, nobody will be able to run against the Panthers.

With Peppers on the end, while on the hunt for a new contract, the Panthers will find a way to generate sacks.

How Thin Are the Panthers at Safety? The Panthers regret that they originally let go of Deon Grant, then let Marlon McRee go two years ago, and let Shaun Williams walk this year, but they must have enough confidence in Nate Salley to do so.

Salley was a fourth-round pick last season and maybe the Panthers admitted to a mistake when they signed him back after cutting him prior to the season opener. Even at 33, Minter is still a steady veteran and if Gamble and Lucas play to their potential, they won't need so much help.

Are Thomas Davis, Ken Lucas, and Chris Gamble Going to Become Reliable? Davis has dipped from free safety to linebacker and back in both college and the Pros and has finally settled at linebacker. The upside is still tremendous and given his versatility, he is a good football player. With a full season under his belt and another full offseason, Davis can be considered as potential breakout candidate.

Gamble has been up and down, but the Panthers' defense as a whole was down last year. He is extremely talented and has already shown what he can do. As the defense improves this season, he will regain his 2005 form.

As for Lucas, he dealt with a couple of nagging injuries last year that really hampered his performance. Yes, he might be a little soft, but he is still a very good cornerback. He will be extra motivated to prove that last season was an aberration and not a trend.

The Panthers' Turning Point

As mentioned previously, this is a turning point for the franchise to determine whether they are building towards a Super Bowl or whether they are heading in the opposite direction.

Dan Morgan, Ken Lucas, Chris Gamble, Thomas Davis, Drew Carter, DeShaun Foster, and Justin Hartwig are supposed to be the foundation of the franchise's success, but all have hit a hurdle.

If the mentioned players can display that they have grown from last season's learning pains, the Panthers will be back in the playoffs. If not, it's time for them to take a good look in the mirror and find out who is part of the solution and who is part of the problem.

Biggest Weakness: Depth — The Panthers are Nicole Richie thin at LB, DE, FS, SS, and pray that Steve Smith stays in good health — they are thin there, too.

Offensive X-Factor: Steve Smith — He will be one of the few wide receivers vying for league MVP if everything goes right in Carolina.

Defensive X-Factor: Dan Morgan — A 13-16 game season for Morgan is just what the doctor ordered. The Panthers will have a one of the better front sevens with him in the lineup.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

DeAngelo Williams is easily the cat with the most untapped fantasy potential. With the Panthers switching to a zone-blocking, power running game, Williams is the better fit. Also, he is a good receiver out of the backfield, which will prove quite valuable for Jake Delhomme since the Panthers are short on receiving weapons. Foster has had his crack at the starting gig for four years and has yet to produce a 1,000-yard season.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].