2007 NFL Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

Twelve wins and a playoff berth in 2005 were supposed to pave the way for a deeper playoff run in 2006 for Jacksonville.

Then again, Jim Carrey was supposed to grow up after "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind." but never did.

Part of the Jaguars' return to Earth was the fact their schedule toughened up. In 2005, they had a number of soft spots that they took advantage of.

Jacksonville looked very strong from the get-go, upending Dallas and Pittsburgh at home, but then came up just short in Indianapolis and an overtime loss in Washington.

Supposed franchise quarterback Byron Leftwich suffered an ankle injury, but didn't properly report it to the training staff. He proceeded to play through it for a game, until head coach Jack Del Rio shut him down.

Without Leftwich, the Jags tried to get by with David Garrard once again, but against stiffer opponents, Garrard was exposed as a fraud.

It didn't help that Garrard, like Leftwich, received no help from any of his passing targets.

Under Leftwich, Reggie Williams looked like he was finally going to shed the "bust" label. In the first five weeks, he 297 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. But he only had 319 receiving yards and no touchdowns after Garrard took over.

Matt Jones, the bigger bust of the two, has struggled to make the transition from quarterback to wide receiver. He did show a pulse near the end of the season, finishing December with 19 receptions, 320 yards, and 3 touchdowns.

Furthermore, first-round pick tight end Marcedes Lewis had a very minor impact in his rookie season (126 yards, 1 TD).

For all the failures of the passing game, the running game picked up the slack.

Rookie Maurice Jones-Drew was the spark plug and shared the load with Fred Taylor. Taylor, who is often ripped an injury risk, he's only missed eight games over the last five years.

While the Jags offense has been inconsistent throughout Del Rio's tenure, one part of the team that has rarely failed has been the defense.

They draft, develop, and execute as good as any defense.

Last season, the Jags lost a number of star contributors to prolonged injury, including Mike Peterson, Marcus Stroud, Reggie Hayward, and Donovin Darius. But guys like Daryl Smith, Clint Ingram, and Gerald Sensabaugh stepped in seamlessly.

The Jags finished with the second-best defense (statistically) and figure to only get better this time around.

Give some credit to coordinator Mike Smith who is probably in line for a head coaching gig soon – or at least a raise.

How To Break The Pattern Of Inconsistency?

Like with most teams when they are enduring inconsistent spells, the trail usually leads back to shaky quarterback play.

The defense is solid all the way around, the running game is a rock, which points the finger in only one direction.

In the past three seasons, the Jags' passing game hasn't ranked better than 19th in the NFL. Without Leftwich performing up to expectations, or avoiding injury, the Jags don't know what they are going to get week in, week out with David Garrard.

But there are three reasons to believe that the pattern will change: it's a contract year for Leftwich (and we all know how athletes not named Andruw Jones step up in those situations), Leftwich is finally comfortable in an offense, and he should have more weapons to work with than ever before.

Leftwich is on the hot seat, but his performance is the only thing that can make this team better than a first-round playoff loser.

New Offensive Coaches

The front office and coaching staff in Jacksonville are sharp and realized this offseason that the missing link in the chain is the passing offense. It has been their main focus since the turn of the new NFL year.

Hence the hiring of Dirk Koetter, Mike Shula, and Todd Monken.

Leftwich has gone through Carl Smith and Brent Musgrave as his offensive coordinator in Jacksonville, but has never felt as comfortable in an offense as he has under Koetter.

Koetter's plan is to implement more downfield passes. The Jags, after all, have a running game that will tempt opposing defenders to creep closer to the line of scrimmage.

Leftwich has openly praised Koetter and quarterbacks coach Mike Shula, who was hired to extract his franchise quarterback potential. That's a change in itself.

Leftwich has responded well and is primed for a career year. But in the passing game, it takes two to connect.

All eyes have been on the competition at wide receiver in training camp.

Former Louisiana State wide receivers coach, Monken, is now overlooking this area for the Jaguars.

The hope was that he would be able to find that "on" switch with busts Jones and Williams, but neither has stood out in training camp.

The competition has helped the others, though, as sophomore Charles Sharon and rookie Mike Walker have looked strong. The latter figures to be among the top three on the depth chart with veterans Dennis Northcutt and Ernest Wilford.

The Jags don't need to emulate the Indianapolis Colts passing game; they need to be consistent, move the chains and keep opponents honest.

With Jermaine Wiggins, along with last year's first-round pick, Marcedes Lewis, Leftwich should have two reliable check down options.

Leftwich leads the way and considering the way he has looked in scrimmages, the passing game should be as strong as it has been to date.

Super Bowl Defense

The Jags' defense has always been good, but has stooped down to its competition on occasion.

But this year, it looks downright scary good.

Consider the fact that it ranked only second to Baltimore in yards allowed, and that was without Stroud, Peterson, and Hayward.

The Jags lost only one key member in the offseason, free safety Deon Grant, who they felt would be adequately replaced by first-round pick Reggie Nelson.

Losing Darius will subtract some leadership, but Sensabaugh has stepped in for him twice in the past to close out seasons.

The safeties are green, but with Pro Bowl corner Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams opposite him, the safeties will have some time to find their feet.

At linebacker, the Jags rarely get recognition as being among the top units, but they should be even stronger this year.

Peterson returns from a pectoral injury, which will push Smith back to the outside spot where he is better suited.

Last year, when Peterson went down, it opened up a spot for rookie Clint Ingram, who finished second on the team with tackles. He has a ton of upside and might push incumbent Nick Greisen, who is a solid player, out of a roster spot completely. Rookie Justin Durant also looks like he has the talent to start from the jump.

On the defensive line, Stroud and John Henderson are the pillars. Nobody is going to run on Jacksonville this year, you write that down in permanent marker. There isn't a ton of depth behind them, but those two are usually healthy.

On the ends is where the Jags could use some more production. But with the return of Hayward, and assuming that Bobby McCray builds on his breakout season, the Jags could be fine. Paul Spicer is a decent a contributor. The Jags need to get more than 35 sacks if they are to become Super Bowl caliber.

This defense looks as strong as it has ever been under Del Rio. Combined with the prospects on offense, the Jags might be surprising a few pundits this season.

Experienced Coaching Staff

There's former NFL head coaches, such as Mike Tice and Dave Campo, there's former college head coaches, such as Mike Shula and Dirk Koetter, and there's coaches who are on the upswing, such as Mike Smith.

As if that wasn't enough, the Jags have brought in Kevin Greene, the NFL's third all-time leader sacker, to observe practice and provide some feedback.

The Jags have made a concentrated effort to fill the sidelines with experienced, savvy coaches that will make sure this team becomes more consistent.

This is one of the best groups in the AFC, which should translate into the Jaguars becoming one of the better teams in the AFC.

Biggest Weakness: Wide Receiver — It still looks like this team misses Jimmy Smith; that might change this year.

Offensive X-Factor: Byron Leftwich — Poised for a breakout campaign. Myself and many other pundits have said the same thing about him for a while now. It's time for him to actually break out.

Defensive X-Factor: Reggie Nelson — Given all the proven components everywhere else, Nelson has the luxury of being the x-factor. If he plays well, this ferocious defense will be the best in the business.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Maurice Jones-Drew, a running back who shares carries with another stud, Fred Taylor, in one of the deepest backfields in the NFL is going late in the first round of many drafts.

Sharing carries with Taylor should at least drop him to round two or three, and the fact that bruiser Greg Jones is back and healthy and LaBrandon Toefield is having a great offseason should also wave a red flag.

Jones, a bulldozer, will likely take goal line carries away from Jones-Drew. And if the Jags figure out how to better use their receivers, that will also cut into Jones-Drew's touchdown total.

Lastly, the Jags have Jermaine Wiggins and Marcedes Lewis at tight end, which will improve their red zone production and take away from Jones-Drew once again. There are better options in round one or two.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].