Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror
With the additions of Sam Madison, Will Demps, and LaVar Arrington to an ailing defense and the expected growth of a certain Manning, the New York Giants were hoping to build on an 11-win season in 2005.
But after the first month, the Giants had more in-house problems than the Osbourne's and the expectations were vastly lowered. They looked like they were ready to implode after the Seattle Seahawks stuffed their cleats deep into their rear-ends during a 42-30 stomping in Week 3. The Giants climbed to relevance with five straight wins, but followed that up with losses in six of their final seven games.
Many offseason additions failed as Madison and Demps combined for four interceptions, while Arrington's only good game — or half — came Week 6 in the game he tore ACL.
While one can point to a number of injuries, which unquestionably hindered the Giants from reaching their full potential, the biggest ailment for the franchise was the lack of overall growth.
On defense, Corey Webster didn't look any more adept than he did in his rookie season, the issues at outside linebacker were not solved and horrid tackling was once again the demise of the defense.
On offense, Sinorice Moss essentially lost a season, questions as to whether Brandon Jacobs could handle a full-time set of carries wasn't answered and Eli Manning definitely did not take a big step forward.
Manning's stats have looked very similar the past two seasons and now some pessimistic thoughts have begun to ruminate as to whether he ever will be a franchise quarterback.
His mechanics are still inconsistent and he is definitely not the on-field general that his brother is. We keep waiting for that pouting expression to be replaced with a fired up look of stern concentration, but the truth is that nothing really appears to faze Manning.
Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers
All eyes were on Eli Manning last season — as they have been since he was drafted — examining what type of improvements he had made. The truth is that there weren't many.
2005:
16 GP, 294-557 (52.8%), 3,762 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT, 75.9 QB rating
2006:
16 GP, 301-522 (57.7%), 3,244 yards, 24 TD, 18 INT, 77.0 QB rating
His completion percentage jumped up nearly five points, but his yardage totals dropped quite a bit.
Leaving the expectations of greatness aside for a second, those numbers are not bad for a starting quarterback. What is really guised here is his inconsistency, which has plagued his career so far.
Take a look at the breakdown for Manning in the team's wins versus the team's losses:
8 Wins:
145-250 (58%), 14 TD, 5 INT, 87.4 QB rating
8 Losses:
156-272 (57.4%), 10 TD, 13 INT, 67.4 QB rating
For the most part, Manning was the reason the Giants would either win or lose come Sunday.
Further breakdown shows that Manning had 15 touchdown and zero interceptions in the red zone, which shows that he does have the sharp accuracy and keen decision making skills that we all thought he did. Now it is more a matter of being steady throughout the game and season.
The truth is that while Manning has been scrutinized quite a bit for his underachievement, a lot of excuses have poured in to defend him. Blame has been spread on offensive coordinators, Plaxico Burress, and Jeremy Shockey. The bottom line still remains that the burden is on Manning to make those people/players better, not the other way around.
Not Smarter Than A Fifth-Grader Because...
They released left tackle Luke Petitgout. Sometimes people talk about Petitgout as being somewhat injury-prone, but the truth is that he played 113 out of a possible 128 games in his eight-year career. A broken leg cost him seven games last year and a back injury limited him to 10 games in 2003. Aside from that, he hasn't played less than 15 games in any season.
The bigger — and possibly more accurate — knock on Petitgout is that he is not a premier left tackle in the same class as Orlando Pace or Walter Jones. While that is true, any team that doesn't have a Pace or a Jones would start Petitgout in a pinch. He may not be great, but he is still very good.
What makes this a complete boneheaded move was the fact that there is no replacement. Save the "we David Diehl" argument; all that means is that you have to replace the vacancy that Diehl will leave open when he slides over to replace him. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that Diehl will be an upgrade at left tackle. The bottom line is that the Giants downgraded their offensive line by cutting Petitgout and don't have a legitimate replacement for neither him nor Diehl, should he slide over from guard.
Will Win the Super Bowl and Will Pay +3500 If...
Eli Manning turns into Peyton Manning times 1,000. Their chances are slim.
On offense, Tiki Barber is gone and in steps Reuben Droughns. His acquisition is peculiar, since he brings the same inside power-running style that Brandon Jacobs entails. The Giants will have a power attack with no deep threats.
The success of the team is banking on the growth of Eli Manning. If he does grow up, meaning that his completion percentage surpasses 60% and he doesn't throw more than 15 interceptions, the Giants could be a playoff team and no more.
The "could" in the last sentence will turn to a "will" if Sinorice Moss develops into a slot receiver and Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey also experience progressions.
On defense, the Giants generate more questions than Stephon Marbury's sports talk show. The defensive tackles overachieved last year and will need to keep it up. Defensive end is the team's strongest position, assuming Lisfranc injuries from last year don't impact the performance of Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck this season (and Strahan shows up).
Can Mathias Kiwanuka make a successful move to linebacker? Considering that his strength is pass-rushing, I'll say that at-best this is a transitional year for him.
With first-round pick Aaron Ross in tow, the Giants might have two good cornerbacks by midseason.
As a whole, there are no obvious indications that the defense will be better. On offense, the team has added a hole to their offensive line and lost Barber. If Manning doesn't improve, the offense will be undoubtedly worse.
Add to all of that, a lame duck coach who is just waiting to get fired. The Giants seemingly tuned him out after a 23-0 shutout playoff loss to Carolina, but he is still sticking around. Throw in some clubhouse bickering and there is no reason to have high expectations for the Giants this year.
Fantasy Market: Buy Low
After being tabbed as a sleeper two seasons in a row and falling somewhat short of fantasy expectations, most people will have Eli Manning pegged as more of a number-two fantasy quarterback. But without Tiki Barber around, Manning will have to throw the ball more often than in previous seasons. Brandon Jacobs has not shown that he can handled full-time carries and Reuben Droughns is coming off a terrible season. Expect Manning to have higher passing totals and more touchdowns. Whether he becomes a better quarterback in the NFL (lowers interceptions, improves completion percentage) won't really affect fantasy production too much.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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