In the Box: NFL Week 12

Sean Taylor is dead.

The Redskins safety, shot in his Miami home at around 1:30 a.m. Monday, was pronounced dead a little more than 24 hours later. He had been shot in the leg during what police say may have been a robbery. His femoral artery was damaged. He lost too much blood and never recovered. He was 24.

A young man, a professional football player, was shot and killed. It's a brutal shock to the system, and not something from which you can recover quickly. Here in St. Louis, it’s happened with Darryl Kile and Josh Hancock. In Denver, it was Darrent Williams and Damien Nash. Toronto pitcher Joe Kennedy died suddenly this past Friday. And now it’s Sean Taylor.

There’s no eloquence there. Just sadness and a grim realization that no matter how much pain you’re in, the world stops for no one. Today, the Redskins mourn. In five days, they play the Bills. Grief does not freeze time, no matter how long the sleepless nights take.

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The current playoff picture:

AFC:
1. New England (11-0; AFC East)
2. Indianapolis (9-2; AFC South)
3. Pittsburgh (8-3; AFC North)
4. San Diego (6-5; AFC West)
5. Jacksonville (8-3)
6. Cleveland (7-4; Officially in business)
7. Tennessee (6-5; Going out of business if they play like that again)
8. Denver (5-6; Horrible, horrible loss to Chicago; Better conference record than the Bills)
9. Buffalo (5-6; Better conference record than the Texans)
10. Houston (5-6)

NFC:
1. Dallas (10-1; NFC East; Huge game again Green Bay on Thursday, with the winner likely getting home field in the NFC Championship Game; Right now, the Cowboys get the edge due to a better conference record at 7-0 vs. 7-1 for the Packers)
2. Green Bay (10-1; NFC North)
3. Seattle (7-4; NFC West; Won head-to-head over Tampa Bay in Week 1)
4. Tampa Bay (7-4; NFC South)
5. NY Giants (7-4; Uh-oh)
6. Detroit (6-5; Sell! Sell! Sell!)
7. New Orleans (5-6; 4-3 conference record is better than any of the other 5-6 teams)
8. Arizona (5-6; Better strength of victory than Minnesota and Washington)
9. Washington (5-6; Better won-lost-tied percentage in common games than Minnesota)
10. Philadelphia (5-6; Based on head-to-head win over Minnesota)

On the board: New Orleans
Off the board: Carolina

* When breaking ties for playoff position, you have to first break ties within each division. The loser of those intra-division tie-breakers are then ineligible for further tie-breakers until all teams ahead of them within their division are seeded.

For example, Washington has the tie-breaker over Philadelphia based on strength of schedule (the sixth criteria after head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record and strength of victory), so the Redskins are then matched up against Arizona and Minnesota (who knocks out division-rival Chicago based on their head-to-head win), while Philly (and Chicago) are pushed to the back. It’s only once Washington comes off the board (thanks to a better percentage in common games with the Vikings) that the Eagles come back into play (and grab the tenth spot based off their head-to-head win over Minnesota).

Current top 5 picks in the draft:

1. Miami (0-11)
2. St. Louis (2-9; .521 strength of schedule)
3. NY Jets (2-9; .529 strength of schedule)
4. Oakland (3-8; .438 strength of schedule)
5. San Francisco (3-8; .454 strength of schedule; Pick owned by New England)

Tie Breaker Procedures

And now the rest of the week that was:

Tampa Bay 19, Washington 13: As you can see above, the Redskins are very much in the playoff hunt. The two teams currently in NFC Wild Card position, the Giants and Lions, are bordering on free-fall status. As one of six NFC teams at 5-6, Washington has as good a shot at making it as anybody. The schedule is manageable (Buffalo, Chicago, at the Giants, at Minnesota, Dallas). They have the offense to get it done, and their defense is still above average (ninth overall), even without Taylor. How they’ll react to the emotion of the situation is anybody’s guess, but the opportunity is there.

As for Tampa, they had another horrible day of offense that resulted in a win. Washington converted on 9 of 17 third-down attempts, the Bucs one of 12. Washington had 412 yards of offense, the Bucs 192. Washington controlled the clock for 35 minutes and Tampa was forced to kick four field goals.

The Bucs got the W and the Skins the L.

(How, you ask? Washington turned the ball over six times, the first four within their own 30, leading to the Bucs’ first 16 points, the final two within the Bucs’ 30, killing the comeback.)

(That’ll do it.)

Fantasy Impact: Jason Campbell has become a legit NFL starting quarterback. Keep that note in your head for your draft next August.

New England 31, Philadelphia 28: With all the well-deserved respect Bill Belichick and the Patriots coaches get, and all the garbage heaped on Andy Reid, it needs to be said: They Pats coaching staff got all they could handle from the Eagles staff on Sunday night. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson had Tom Brady uncomfortable all night. And, even more impressive, Marty Mornhinweg’s Jay Feeley-led offense carved up the vaunted Pats defense for 391 yards. Nobody’s moved like that on the Pats since the Colts in the second half last January.

The players get the glory, but that coaching staff, from Reid on down, earned their paychecks this week.

(And the sad part is the Pats put up 31 of their own and won the game to stay undefeated while the Eagles are in a five-week free-for-all for the Wild Card.)

Fantasy Impact: The stat sheet says it was all Wes Welker, no Randy Moss. But Moss had a chance to break a big one down the right sideline, and it went through his hands. Donte Stallworth also had a big drop on what John Madden called a “smoke screen.” (I don’t know if that’s what it was called or he misspoke or it was a bad pun or I just heard him wrong.) In any event, Madden says it would have gone for a touchdown but they didn’t show a replay.

Oakland 20, Kansas City 17: Fourth and one, down three on the Oakland 23, 4:27 left. Herm Edwards goes for it. Kolby Smith, having an otherwise fantastic day, gets dropped short. Turnover on downs. Never get the ball back. 4-7 and puff go the Chiefs’ playoff dreams.

Why?

Perhaps it was because Smith was on fire, with 151 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Perhaps it’s because of the three previous times he had run the ball on third or fourth and one, Smith got the first twice. Perhaps it’s because Edwards didn’t trust Dave Rayner after Rayner missed a 33-yarder in the previous possession (which, if that’s the case, Rayner needs to hit the street this week). Or perhaps it’s because after Rayner missed the previous kick, it only took the Raiders three plays to go 77 yards for the go-ahead TD.

Those are all good reasons, even more so when combined together. But that doesn’t change the fact YOU KICK THE FREAKING BALL, DAMN IT!

(Jeeeeez.)

Fantasy Impact: How the hell do you only connect with Tony Gonzalez three times in a game you lose by a FG at home?

Dallas 34, NY Jets 3: The only thing that needs to be said for the Jets is that they need to fire offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer as soon as possible. That offense is just slop. With a new offensive scheme and a top-five pick (I’d go with Michigan OT Jake Long or Virginia DE Chris Long), the Jets could rise just as quickly next year as they dropped this season.

(Since I’m not one to criticize without offering suggestions, a couple of good OC candidates: Bengals QB coach Ken Zampese, who would be great for Kellen Clemens, or Saints QB coach Pete Carmichael Jr., who, though young at 36, has a reputation as having a quick mind and great feel for the game – in other words, an offensive version of Eric Mangini. The Jets should NOT, under any circumstances, hire re-treads Chan Gailey, fired by Georgia Tech, or Bill Callahan, fired by Nebraska.)

As for Dallas, check out the NFL Network on Thursday night. Their game against Green Bay will tell us everything we need to know.

Fantasy Impact: Since the Jets’ defense couldn’t stop anything, their final five: at Miami (I’m calling it right now – Fins win), Cleveland, at New England, at Tennessee, Kansas City. Pray you don’t face whoever in your league has Tom Brady in Week 15.

Green Bay 37, Detroit 26: Even as a Pats fan, I would not object to Brett Favre and Brady being co-MVP’s. Having followed Brady his entire pro career, I bet that would actually mean more to him than winning the award outright.

Fantasy Impact: Favre’s year to date: 291 of 425 (68.5%) for 3356 yards, 22 TD and 8 INT. He hasn’t completed less than 70 percent of his passes since Week 6. I don’t care what you have to do – find a place to watch Packers-Cowboys on Thursday. Make up a business trip and fly somewhere if you have to. This could be the prelude to an all-time classic if the two teams meet again with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. If you love the NFL, you simply have to watch this game.

Indianapolis 31, Atlanta 13: Warrick Dunn is not washed up. And I don’t mean to bag on a guy who’s been nothing but a great ambassador for the sport. But why the hell aren’t the Falcons running Jerious Norwood more? He had six carries in this one (for 33 yards). He caught one pass (for nine). And he had six kick returns for an average of 26.3 (with a long of 37). At this pace he won’t even crack 100 rushing attempts on the year.

For a team so badly in need of a spark, there’s no excuse for not riding the most explosive player on that offense.

Fantasy Impact: Anthony Gonzalez broke the 100-yard barrier for the first time. If Marvin Harrison isn’t himself or gets re-injured, Gonzalez could be starting opposite Reggie Wayne against Oakland and Houston in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively.

Seattle 24, St. Louis 19: Take heart, St. Louisans, this Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game between Missouri and Oklahoma could be the best college sports moment involving a team from Missouri ever (I don’t like the match-up against West Virginia). I’m rooting for the Tigers if only so I can watch the title game in a bar packed full of delirious locals. Whether they win or lose, it’s great to have a front-row seat to championship theatre.

(I went to Arizona, so I don’t really care one way or the other. We got our title when we beat Oregon. Now we just need to take out ASU on Saturday and ruin their Rose Bowl plans – as long as USC takes care of business against UCLA - and the football season will have been a success. And now that Lute Olson is back at practice, everything should be fine, although they might get killed by Texas A&M this Sunday.)

Also, Seattle was a stupid Gus Frerotte fumbled snap from losing another road game.

Fantasy Impact: Say you’ve watched D.J. Hackett tear it up the past two weeks on your bench (17 catches for 237 yards and 2 TD). And say you’ve watched Chad Johnson not tear it up in your starting line-up all season (no TD since Week 2). And say you figure Hackett looks like a better match-up against the Rams than Johnson does against the Titans. And say you make the switch. And say you want to bash yourself in the face with a brick every time they show another Johnson touchdown (12 catches for 103 yards and 3 scores) while Hackett gets hurt and does nothing (4 catches for 41 yards). And say you lose by six and cost yourself a playoff spot in a league for which you’re the commissioner and only one who writes weekly NFL columns.

That would really, really suck.

In a related note, my team name next year will be “Stupid (rhymes with tucking) Idiot.”

Cincinnati 35, Tennessee 6: Albert Haynesworth can’t be that good, is he?

Fantasy Impact: Don’t ever, ever sit 85. Ever. I don’t care if he’s on Injured Reserve. Start him anyway.

San Diego 32, Baltimore 14: The Ravens woke up Monday with the realization even a five-game sweep of New England, Indianapolis, Miami (road), Seattle (road) and Pittsburgh probably doesn’t get them in the playoffs. And there is no way in hell they win all five of those games. It’s only a matter of weeks before Ray Lewis calls out everybody in the media, then stops doing interviews all together.

Fantasy Impact: Hey, if Jay Feeley can light up the Pats, who’s to say Kyle Boller can’t?

Minnesota 41, NY Giants 17: I was watching Meet The Press this Sunday, and one of the guests said (paraphrasing) that one of the most dangerous things a Presidential candidate can do is play into an existing narrative. In other words, if you have a reputation as having a short fuse, the last thing you want to do is get caught being mad on camera. If people already question your mental competency, it’s a bad idea to miss-spell potato (the example cited by the guest).

And it didn’t occur to me until two days later, but that’s the best description of the State of Eli Manning. Way back in the pre-season, every overthrown pass, every ball batted down at the line of scrimmage, was met with a resounding groan from Giants fans. “Here we go again.” And now Manning has come through with his first official meltdown of 2007, potentially triggering the annual collapse resulting in an embarrassing playoff loss and firing of Tom Coughlin. And because everybody expected it all along, it goes beyond being just one bad performance. It’s who he is.

Fantasy Impact: I was trying to think of a comparable situation to the consistent second-guessing of Manning. The best I could think of is trying to make a pornographic film for the first time, except instead of people just watching and filming, which I imagine would be extremely unnerving in itself, they’re also trying to beat you with baseball bats.

(Was that weird? I’m sorry.)

New Orleans 31, Carolina 6: The injury to Jake Delhomme crippled Carolina, but that shouldn’t be used as an excuse for all that ails the Panthers. I have a feeling John Fox keeps his job because owner Jerry Richardson isn’t an over-reactor, but they’ll be doing themselves a great disservice if they chalk up their lost season to just injuries. This roster is not entirely well put together.

Fantasy Impact: Saints rushing totals:

Aaron Stecker: 13 carries for 42 yards
Pierre Thomas: 12 carries for 32 yards
Reggie Bush: 9 carries for 32 yards

I know he has a bruised shin and all, but this is nothing new from Bush. In 27 career games, he’s been held under 50 yards rushing 18 times.

Jacksonville 36, Buffalo 14: We knew the past two weeks were going to be hard on the Bills, and now they have the unenviable position of facing a Redskins team wracked by grief. Outside of the personal aspect, the reality of Bills-Skins is that this is a playoff elimination game. Win, and you’re still in the hunt. Lose, and the mountain becomes too high to climb.

Also, the Bills loss clinched the AFC East for the Pats. It was November 25.

Fantasy Impact: Maurice Jones-Drew had 10 rushes for 10 yards. He had a TD to bolster his points, but that’s still a mighty weak line against a defense playing a ton of second- and third-stringers.

Cleveland 37, Houston 27: Three notes:

1. It didn’t get noticed by the officiating crew (or the announcers), but Matt Schaub’s first interception (second and nine at the Cleveland 36 with the Texans already up 7-0) was a direct result of pass interference by a Cleveland defender (didn’t get the number, think it was Andra Davis), who hit TE Joel Dreessen a good second early, forcing the ball to carom off his back shoulder for the pick by D'Qwell Jackson. That was a huge turning point in the game.

2. Browns undrafted rookie CB Brandon McDonald played a great game (four passes defended, one interception). He was all over the place. It was like Leigh Bodden put on a 22 jersey and they had two of them out there. I’m not sure who got game balls in the victorious locker room, but I hope McDonald got one of them.

3. The Browns are going to make the playoffs.

Fantasy Impact: As many bad jokes as I made about Kellen Winslow after the whole soldiers thing (and then the motorcycle thing), I have to admit he’s one of my favorite players in the NFL. Dude is fearless. His 10-catch, 107-yard, 1-TD performance in this game was one of the best I’ve seen at the position all year.

San Francisco 37, Arizona 31: This game was so ridiculous (and entertaining to watch), it defies explanation. Just read the full play-by-play. It’s crazy.

Fantasy Impact: Love to see the Frank Gore revival (116 rush yards with 2 TD, 11 receptions for 98 yards). That was as good as he’s looked all year.

Chicago 37, Denver 34: Horrific loss for the Broncos.

Also, Devin Hester Devin Hester Devin Hester.

Fantasy Impact: With Cedric Benson out for the year, Adrian Peterson all of a sudden becomes a very available starting running back. His 17 rushes for 45 yards and a TD weren’t mind blowing, but he’s going to get a steady diet of action.

And taking a lesson from the Larry Johnson-Priest Holmes-Kolby Smith transition, Bears rookie RB Garrett Wolfe might be worth a look.

Pittsburgh 3, Miami 0: I’m not a huge Tony Korneheiser fan, because he gets annoying after a little while. (Too smug, like he’s better than the game he’s there to announce. Joe Buck does that on local Cardinals telecasts during the season. Drives me nuts.)

Anyway, Kornheiser had a great line on the Ricky Williams saga: “He’s been vilified beyond his villainy.” That was a good one.

Fantasy Impact: Jack Wilson’s three-run home run off Dontrelle Willis in the second proved to be the difference as Pirates pitcher Matt Morris threw his first complete game shut-out since 2004.

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.

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