American League
Los Angeles of Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
This series starts on Wednesday with the Angels taking up the option of the longer series, allowing them to enjoy rest days between Games 2, 3 and 5, to go with just three starters on regular rest, and only 10 pitchers on the 25-man roster.
This series has taken a major turn with the news that Josh Beckett strained an oblique muscle during a bullpen session on Friday and is now slated (at best) to start Game 3. The Sox are already sweating on the fitness of Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew and this will come as a major blow, no matter how the Sox brass spin it.
The Angels are happy with a rotation of John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Joe Saunders, but the Red Sox are still unlikely to be fazed as they can counter with John Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and (hopefully) Beckett.
Boston has recent playoff history in its favor, dispatching the Angels with the minimum of fuss in both 2007 and 2004. This is a better Angel team than the Red Sox beat on those occasions, with Vladimir Guerrero in better health, Mark Teixeira a huge power boost over Casey Kotchman at first base, a stronger pitching rotation, and Torii Hunter patrolling center. Factor in home advantage and the fact that Boston has lost Manny Ramirez since the last time these teams met in postseason play, and the Angels start slight favorites.
Mike Scioscia's team has totally dominated the Red Sox this regular season, going 8-1, including consecutive sweeps in July. That's no guarantee of playoff success, but it will help restore the confidence of the Angels, who were beginning to pickup a Boston-phobia.
Right-hander John Lackey (2-0, 2.81 ERA vs. Red Sox in 2008), starts the series against lefty Lester and the Angels will be counting on getting off to a flying start.
Lackey worries me this season, with his increased home run ratio (26 so far in 163.1 IP) and inconsistency since the break. His last outing against Texas was particularly disastrous, failing to get out the third inning while surrendering 10 runs.
Lester has the composure, not to mention the above-average arsenal, of a number one starter and the team has confidence in him. However, in four career starts against the Angels, he's got a 7.78 ERA and a .393 BAA.
Santana against Matsuzaka is another tight call, with Santana strong at home (though less so this year) and Matsuzaka preferring to pitch on the road (unbeaten at 9-0 in 2008). Assuming Beckett is good to go in Game 3 in Boston, he will start a slight favorite to beat Joe Saunders.
With evenly matched starting pitching, two strong bullpens, and two of the best closers in the league, this contest will depend on the small things — a bloop single, a stolen base, or an error on a routine play — as short playoff games like this are often decided by a well-timed bit of luck.
This could easily go either way, but I feel Anaheim has played into Boston's hands by electing to stretch the series over a week and sending Tim Wakefield and Paul Byrd out of the rotation and into the bullpen. Boston in five.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins
The Rays are unquestionably the great story of this season — or any season in recent memory. Predicted, at best, to finish the season fourth in a strong AL East, instead they took the division in style, despite dealing with injuries to Cliff Floyd, Troy Percival, Evan Longoria, and Carl Crawford. Every team suffers injuries, but in the Rays' case, their miniscule payroll makes them that much harder to deal with.
There's no doubt the Rays would prefer to face the White Sox in a short series, with Ozzie Guillen's team facing elimination three games in a row and the clubhouse seemingly close to imploding under the strain of Guillen's ranting and players turning against each other in the media.
The Twins are a tougher nut to crack and remain the model small market franchise, despite what Billy Beane's admirers might claim. The minor league system has churned out a succession of young, hard-to-beat starting pitchers who are taught to pound the strike zone and not issue free passes.
That said, the Twins are light on power, Justin Morneau excepted, and the Rays' starting pitching is better, with Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and James Shields an upgrade on what Minnesota or Chicago can throw at them. In addition, the Rays' bullpen of J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, and rookie David Price is one of the strongest in the American League.
Whoever turns up against Tampa Bay, I expect the Rays to progress comfortably with their power hitting, strong rotation, and lights-out bullpen.
National League
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee's heart attack progression to the playoffs has boosted an ailing ballclub that looked on the ropes with the firing of Ned Yost on September 15th. No doubt, the team will be on an adrenaline rush after the last day heroics of Ryan Braun, but in the cold light of day, Philadelphia is a better team. Indeed, it was the Phillies' four-game sweep of the Brewers that ended Yost's tenure at Miller Park.
With Ben Sheets looking in danger of missing the series, Milwaukee will again rely on C.C. Sabathia to take the ball on three days rest in Game 2, by which time they will likely be in a hole as Cole Hamels opens the series against Yovani Gallardo on Wednesday afternoon in The Cit.
Philadelphia looks to have too much all-round strength for the Brewers, with run-scoring potential all through the lineup and a pitching staff with a remarkable 3.65 ERA in their hitter-friendly home stadium. Add in the strong bullpen that Charlie Manuel can call on and it's hard to see how the Brewers are going to score enough runs.
I can't see this series going past four games at most.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
This is a much better matchup than the other NLDS game, with the Dodgers, until recently, a .500 ballclub in a poor division, suddenly sparking into life behind a stellar rotation of Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda (all righties). With Greg Maddux in the mix, Clayton Kershaw available from the bullpen, and Joe Biemel, Takashi Saito ,and Jonathon Broxton at the tail end, the Dodgers will prove a formidable hurdle, especially now that Manny Ramirez is there to add power to a decent lineup that includes Russell Martin, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and Jeff Kent.
That said, the Cubs have been the best team in the NL since opening day and counter Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuroda with Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, and Rich Harden — no mean trio.
The Cubs have the better all-round team, but the Dodgers have enough starting pitching to hold them close and I like the Dodgers' bullpen a lot better than the Cubs' relievers. In a tight matchup, this could be the edge Joe Torre needs to take his team into the NLCS in five games.
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