An Unbiased Look at Top 25 Rankings

We all know the story of the BCS, with its tremendous flaws and clockwork-esque national title problems. It's also an incredibly complicated and intricate system, taking into account many different things that may not even need to be taken into account.

Not that anyone should try unless they are a mathematician, but I've recently attempted to simplify the BCS into one easier to understand rankings system. It's flawed, no doubt, but it definitely provokes some interesting parallels. First, let's take a look at the current BCS top 25:

1. Texas 7-0
2. Alabama 7-0
3. Penn State 8-0
4. Oklahoma 6-1
5. USC 5-1
6. Oklahoma State 7-0
7. Georgia 6-1
8. Texas Tech 7-0
9. Ohio State 7-1
10. Florida 5-1
11. Utah 8-0
12. Boise State 6-0
13. LSU 5-1
14. TCU 7-1
15. Missouri 5-2
16. South Florida 6-1
17. Pitt 5-1
18. Georgia Tech 6-1
19. Tulsa 7-0
20. Ball State 7-0
21. BYU 6-1
22. Northwestern 6-1
23. Kansas 5-2
24. Minnesota 6-1
25. Florida State 5-1

And my rankings, which I'll explain further in a moment:

1. Texas 7-0
2. USC 5-1
3. Oklahoma 6-1
4. Florida 5-1
5. Missouri 5-2
6. Oklahoma State 7-0
7. Oregon State 4-3
8. TCU 7-1
9. Iowa 5-3
10. California 5-2
11. Penn State 8-0
12. Georgia 6-1
13. Alabama 7-0
14. Tulsa 7-0
15. Ball State 7-0
16. Nebraska 4-3
17. Arizona 5-2
18. Georgia Tech 6-1
19. Boise State 6-0
20. Northern Illinois 4-3
21. Minnesota 6-1
22. Kansas 5-2
23. Ohio State 7-1
24. Vanderbilt 5-2
25. Mississippi 3-4

There are a lot of the same teams, just mixed up — but there are also some teams that many people wouldn't even think about including in the top 25. Ole Miss? Northern Illinois? Ohio State at No. 23?

While it would be juvenile to try and pass this off as a legitimate way to rank the teams from the most deserving of a title shot to the least, the things that it takes into account are perhaps the most important (they are also the only things I used to create my rankings):

Strength of schedule — A team's strength of schedule helps put every category of measurement into much better perspective. They may have a 6-2 record, but the toughest schedules in the country, making the two losses appear all the more impressive.

Points scored minus points given up — Perhaps the most important gauge of a team's strength, besides strength of schedule; how much points a team has scored minus how much it has given up is a great indicator of overall team strength. It also factors in points scored off of turnovers and special teams.

Winning percentage — While this statistic alone can be misleading, when you combine in it with the previous two, you get a much better grasp on how impressive it is.

What I think my rankings show, and should cause us all to think about, is that the taboo that is the way we tag a loss is perhaps a bit too harsh. For instance, USC played a bad game against Oregon State in its only loss thus far. But according to many factors, is still a better team than, say, unbeaten Oklahoma State. The most important thing to remember here is that these rankings are done in a way in which to compare two teams should they meet on a neutral playing field. Perhaps we try and bring to many things into the fray when ranking teams? Are we thinking too much?

In conclusion, though, I'm not trying to discredit the BCS — but perhaps when you look at the rankings, remember to pull in a bit more outside factors into account. The intangibles. The things that you cannot put down on paper.

The system sure is going to need them when there's 10 one-loss teams contending for the final national title spot!

Comments and Conversation

October 25, 2008

mike round:

Wow - where to start?………let’s try Oregon State at 7 with 2 of their 4 wins against teams who are a combined 1-13 and 0-9 in the pac 10. I guess it’s treble credits for beating USC even though you say USC “played a bad game”.
As a rule, easy to understand usually equals crap. As for intangibles - if it can’t go down on paper it doesn’t exist.
Cheers
Mike

October 27, 2008

Andrew Jones:

The fact that you have Ohio St. ranked below Minnesota when Ohio St. lost to USC, your #2 and Minnesota lost to Ohio St. just doesn’t make any sense and I’m a Gopher fan. Now things have changed with Ohio St. losing more than one game, but still, wow.
It truly looks like winning percentage has no weight whatsoever when you have a team with 5 losses in the top 10 ahead of multiple teams with one. If you arbitrarily or biasedly decide that the Big 10 is worse than the Pac 10 and therefore rank them accordingly of course the strength in schedule is going to further skew their separation. The reason why people love college football is because one bad game means you’re in trouble. You have to bring it every week and as a fan you have to watch every week because you’ll never know what will happen. Unbiased isn’t possible when you take into account strength of schedule or points for and against it favors highly offensive teams. Winning percentage will always be the best indicator of how to rank teams.

October 27, 2008

Kevin Beane:

Did you have an actual formula for doing this? Or did you just consider those factors you cited and sort of…rank them while thinking about those factors? ‘Cause I’d love to understand the justification that Cal is better than Alabama.

Using points for and points against was thrown out some time ago because it encourages teams to run up the score. I don’t think it’s as good of a decisive factor as yards differential anyway.

October 27, 2008

Andrew Jones:

Sorry, Cal doesn’t really have 5 losses, that was just a mistake in your article, they’re really 5-2.

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