First off, a look at how the World Series has panned out so far. Game 1 was reasonably predictable with Cole Hamels stifling the Rays sufficiently to grind out a 3-2 win. Hamels wasn't at his absolute best, but his composure and intelligence on the mound got him past the nervy, pressing Rays. His opponent, Scott Kazmir, wasn't the same pitcher that held the Red Sox to 2 hits in the ALCS Game 5. He couldn't find the strike zone with any regularity, so much so that a few times along the way it looked like Joe Maddon would lift him.
The Rays bounced back straight out the starting gate in Game 2, behind a walk, a single, a throwing error, and a couple of groundout RBIs. Hardly the heady stuff of the ALCS, but it was enough to get inside the head of Brett Myers, who allowed further runs in the second and fourth.
In Game 3, the Rays were counting on getting to Jamie Moyer, the aged but crafty soft toss pitcher who came into the game with a 13.50 ERA. Instead, the young Tampa hitters were too eager and allowed Moyer to get away with conceding 3 runs, all on outs. Matt Garza looked nervous and a completely different pitcher to the man who dominated the Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS. Still, the Rays could have won it had they had held their nerve late on, but some poor defense and a creaky bullpen put them away.
So Game 4, as is often the case, took on extra proportions, especially for the Rays. Simply put, they had to beat Joe Blanton, by far the weakest pitcher in the Philly rotation, or face the prospect of having to beat Cole Hamels on Monday night to stay in the series.
The Rays were simply dreadful Sunday night. They couldn't hit, especially in the heart of the order, booted balls around the infield, threw everything over the heart of the plate at 85 mph and the manager seemed to completely forget that this game was essentially do-or-die.
Andy Sonnanstine wasn't fooling anyone and he was lucky to have got through three innings with just 2 runs on the board. Inexplicably, Joe Maddon sent him out for the fourth as if this was a regular season game, and the game was effectively over with Ryan Howards' 3-run homer. Sonnanstine came out at the end of the 4th but by then the game was over.
The Phillies have been by far the better team and deserve to win the series. Charlie Manuel, while stubbornly leaving his lefty duo of Utley and Howard following each other in the lineup, has used his bullpen effectively and held his nerve when Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins were struggling. Shame the Philly fans didn't do the same when they felt it necessary to lustily boo Pat Burrell after a groundout.
To matters off the field, the hot stove season has burst into life with some interesting stories leaking out of San Diego and Colorado that both these strugglers might be prepared to move their star players if the price was right.
San Diego front office guy Paul DePodesta has explained the reasoning behind the idea of trading ace starter Jake Peavy this winter. He conveniently leaves out the ugly divorce between owner John Moores and his wife, which could well mean the team either being sold by Moores or retained and the payroll cut (at least in the short term).
The idea of trading a player who is under contract for the next five years for the (relatively) reasonable price of $78 million would seem strange but, as DePodesta points out, there is no player that is untouchable at the right price. The question would seem to be, in the current fiscal climate and given the fact that GMs are hanging on to prospects like their lives depend on it, could the team extract a big enough bounty to placate the fans as they watch one of the best three pitchers in the league leave town?
So far the answer would seem to be no. Atlanta, Peavy's preferred choice if rumors are to be believed, are said to be offering a mixture of major league-ready talent (RHP Jair Jurrjens, plus one of 2B Kelly Johnson, OF Matt Diaz, SS Yunel Escobar) and prospects, but are reluctant to include the one GM Kevin Towers coverts most, RHP Tommy Hanson.
That would be a much lesser package than the one Oakland received for Dan Haren last year, especially since Peavy is a significantly better pitcher now than Haren was at the point he was traded. That said, Towers hand might be forced by an ownership looking to rebuild whilst running a payroll at around the $58 million of 2007.
As DePodesta says on his blog, "If you have something you value at $1 million dollars, it would be foolish to refuse to consider selling it for $20 million dollars. On the flipside, it would also be foolish to sell it for anything less than $1 million." The package that is allegedly on the table from Atlanta is more $1 million than $20 million.
Over in Colorado, the Rockies have (finally) decided they need pitching and are prepared to pony up 1B/3B Garrett Atkins to get it. The trouble with that plan is that Atkins, good as he is, will only fetch a second- or third-level starter, not the top of the rotation guy they covert. So the team has let it leak that OF Matt Holliday is available for premier pitching.
Holliday is a free agent after this season and it will take a big, multi-year offer to get him to sign a long-term deal. That would seem to rule out every team outside of New York, Boston, and Los Angeles.
Atkins would seem a better fit in Fenway than Holliday, the Mets and Yankees need pitching rather than parting with it, the Angels seem intent on spending their big money on retaining Mark Teixeira, and a deal with the Dodgers would be unpopular as they are a divisional rival.
The market for Holliday, as good as he is, might be smaller than Scott Boras, his agent, imagines. One team I think should get involved is the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that has young pitching to spare and desperately needs to hang on to the newbie fans that appeared once the team made the postseason. What better way to send a signal that the ownership is in it for the long haul than trading for a young slugger in his prime?
The Wall Street Journal points out that the Rays are in an economic hole with small attendances, a poor stadium, and the historic aversion to baseball in south Florida. That doesn't take account of the fact that the nearby Buccaneers of the NFL, who suffered through years of poor attendances while the team was bad, completely turned the situation around once the product on the field improved.
A trade for a young franchise player would send an irrefutable signal to the community that the team wasn't going to follow the example of the neighboring Marlins and dismantle the team (twice) rather than investing in high quality players. Build a competitive team and a decent ballpark and they will come.
The Rays have a host of top-tier prospects to deal if Colorado is prepared to cut payroll, give up on 2009, and plan for beyond 2010. RHP Wade Davis has top of the rotation stuff and there's Jeff Niemann, another righty who stands 6'9" tall and throws a variety of quality off-speed stuff to go with his 93 mph heater. One of the young shortstops Reid Brignac or Tim Beckham is expendable for the right player and the Rays have starters Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine as big league-ready players to sweeten the pot.
Is GM Andrew Friedman likely to make such a bold move after the hubris of the World Series has died down? Unlikely, sadly, as principal owner Stuart Sternberg is warning of hard economic times in Florida. It may well prove to be a missed opportunity for a franchise that needs to build on the momentum of an epic season in an unlikely setting.
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