American League
Unsurprisingly, the New York Bloated Payrolls were the principal spenders, lavishing the equivalent of the GDP of most small European countries on pitchers A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabathia and slugger Mark Teixeira. They also re-signed veteran (has-been) Andy Pettitte and traded for 1B/OF Nick Swisher, who was a serious disappointment in Chicago, but enjoyed a couple of reasonable years in Oakland.
Burnett was a serial tease in Toronto and Florida, having the arsenal to compete with the best around, but consistently failed to either produce it and/or stay healthy. He owns a career ERA of 3.81 after 10 years in the majors. He walks too many batters — 3.50 per 9 last season — but the Yankee brass are gambling that they can harness the talent that helped him pitch a no-hitter in 2001 (complete with an amazing 9 walks) against the San Diego Padres.
No doubt in Brian Cashman's mind was the fact that Burnett owns a 2.56 career ERA against Boston and a 3-0 record at Fenway with a 0.40 ERA. But $82.5 million is a big price to pay to gamble on that record continuing.
C.C. Sabathia was the most prized pitcher on the free agent market and predictably signed with the Yankees despite claiming he wanted to stay in the NL so he got to hit. The extra dollars soon took care of that hunger for lumber.
Sabathia has been abused the last two seasons, pitching almost 500 innings including 10 complete games last season. He was virtually untouchable in Milwaukee, at least until the playoffs when the Phillies spanked him around, but bullying weak NL line-ups is a different ballgame to the bruising AL East. That said, he has a tough make-up on the mound and seems to have the sort of self-effacing personality that could cope with the ludicrous hubris of New York Yankee baseball.
Apart from his Pitcher Abuse Points, Sabathia has everything in place to be a big hit in New York, as does 1B slugger Mark Teixeira.
Teixeira is a 100 R and 100 RBI lock batting in the heart of a lineup that is a big upgrade on what surrounded him in Los Angeles and Atlanta. He is also an improvement, both offensively and defensively, on Jason Giambi, though he doesn't hit well against Boston, going .232 in 142 ABs and only .194 at Fenway. The money (eight years, $180 million) for adding another slugger to an already loaded line up may seem ill-advised, but the team brass were keen to both bolster the lineup for the postseason when the hits dry up and at the same time keep him from the clutches of rivals in Boston and Los Angeles.
The question is have the Steinbrenners done enough to move the team into position to challenge both old foe Boston and new kids on the block, Tampa?
The Boston Red Sox kept their spending to a minimum, re-signing aging catcher Jason Varitek after protracted negotiation and adding oft-injured starter Brad Penny with a one-year, $5 million contract.
Varitek is a declining offensive force and Penny has flattered to deceive for as long as A.J. Burnett, though at one-year for a modest addition to the payroll he's a justifiable gamble, though one that's unlikely to pay off.
Penny has pitched his career in the NL and still sports a lifetime ERA of 4.06, with numerous trips to the DL interspersed along the way. In the heat of the big-hitting AL, he could get seriously lit-up.
The Red Sox still has a nice rotation, a solid bullpen, and a good top of the batting order, but with David Ortiz lacking the presence of Manny around him and seemingly on the decline, both health-wise and statistically, the team will need more production from J.D. Drew, which is a worry as Drew is another career tease, apart from one decent season in Atlanta and one good — if injury-disrupted — season in St Louis in 2001.
Jason Bay has the look of a Fenway favorite about him, but he's not the type to carry an offense single-handed like Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz (in his prime) could, so the team will need big and injury-free years from either or both of Drew and Mike Lowell, more of the same from Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis and bounce-back seasons from either Varitek or particularly Ortiz.
The Red Sox will again be competitive, but with the Yankees upgraded and the Rays young and infused with the confidence of going to a World Series, they could struggle to win the most competitive division in the sport.
Nothing much happened down in Tampa during the offseason except the team picked up under-appreciated Pat Burrell from the world champion Phillies. Burrell will DH and is a big upgrade on porcelain Cliff Floyd.
Burrell was widely criticized in Philadelphia for being a defensive liability, striking out too often and not being a "clutch" hitter — whatever that is. The facts state that Burrell was a seriously productive hitter — averaging 28 homers, 92 RBIs, and 87 walks a year. He also owns a career OBP of .367. His fielding won't be an issue in the AL and he's surrounded by talent in B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and Carlos Pena that will boost his RBI opportunities.
The Ray's also possess one of the best rotations in MLB, with Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine joined this year by last season's rookie sensation, David Price, and a deep bullpen that only lacks a closer that can stay healthy consistently.
Over in the West, the Los Angeles Angels have had a traumatic offseason, losing both bopper Teixeira after just two months in Anaheim and closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets — both to free agency.
Youngster Kendry Morales will step in at first and ex-Colorado closer Brian Fuentes will get first look to step in to ninth inning duties, though Jose Arredondo will be breathing down his neck should Fuentes falter.
Bobby Abreu was added to an already crowded outfield, though he'll help with a bit of power and a lot of OBP. The trouble is he's slated to bat second in the order and, without Teixeira, there's not a lot of power behind him.
I can't see the Angels being as good as last season as they will struggle to score freely, though they should still have enough to win a weak AL West as the rotation should be fine with John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, and either Dustin Moseley, oft-injured Kelvim Escobar, or youngster Nick Adenhart and there's still enough arms in the bullpen even allowing for K-Rod's departure.
I don't see any other AL team contending for the pennant, as Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago will all score runs, but have big pitching issues and the addition of Matt Holliday in Oakland is a bold move by Billy Beane, but he is surrounded by either fading stars like Eric Chavez and Jason Giambi or non-entities like Travis Buck, Ryan Sweeney, and Jack Cust.
National League
The defending champion Phillies are confident they've upgraded their offense slightly by replacing Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez. The pitching staff returns virtually intact, though personally I remain skeptical about Joe Blanton's ability to put a decent full year together in a hitter's park and Jamie Moyer's chances of repeating his 2008. That said, the team will score runs and remains the team to beat in the NL.
Getting past the Mets in the East will again prove a big hurdle, with the New Yorker's loaded lineup and re-vamped bullpen, including two top-flight closers in J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez. The Mets' top four starters of Santana, Perez, Maine, and Pelfrey is slightly better than the Phillies Hamels, Blanton, Moyer, and Myers and the team is just as loaded hitting-wise.
The Mets have suffered late season collapses that will have damaged them psychologically and Jerry Manuel has a job on his hands convincing the team they can actually overcome the Phillies. With the bullpen bolstered over the winter the team will be confident they can now close out games that they threw away in late innings the past two or three seasons.
Still in the East, the Atlanta Braves were active in the free agency and trade markets over the winter, adding Javier Vazquez, Tom Glavine, Kenshin Kawakami, and Derek Lowe to the rotation, as well as coming a close second in the race for A.J. Burnett. The bullpen looks strong, with two viable closers in Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano at the back end.
The offense still relies too much on Chipper Jones but Brian McCann, Casey Kotchman, Yunel Escobar, and free agency signing Garret Anderson are serviceable enough. The team desperately needs a rebound season from outfielder Jeff Francoeur, who struggled badly at times in 2008. Francoeur has serious power, but strikes out too much and has spent time in the offseason adjusting his stance, losing weight, and trying to hit to the opposite field.
The Braves have SP Tommy Hanson and OF Jordan Schafer waiting in the wings to try to replicate what David Price and Evan Longoria did in Tampa in 2008. If there's a long-shot to win a pennant this year, it could be the Braves, who have a strong rotation, a solid bullpen, a crafty manager, and minor league talent to trade or call up if needed.
Outside of the East, the Cubs look the strongest bet to challenge, though offseason additions Aaron Miles (2B) and Milton Bradley are unspectacular signings. The team will need to get full seasons from SP's Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano — both of whom have had injury question marks against them.
Zambrano was dreadful in his late two regular season starts, but bounced back in the playoffs to beat the weak-hitting Dodgers. Ryan Dempster was magnificent in 2008, his first season starting since 2003. Ted Lilly is a solid number four guy behind the hard-throwing Rich Harden, who came over midseason from Oakland and partly re-habilitated his reputation after a series of injury-riddled years.
The bullpen lost closer Kerry Wood to free agency, but Aaron Heilman came over in a trade with Seattle with a view to starting rather than reprising his less than inspiring performances from the bullpen for the Mets in 2008.
The Cubs should have too much in the Central for the Brewers, whose rotation looks less than stellar and bullpen dubious with fragile closer Trevor Hoffman and the meltdown-waiting-to-happen Jorge Julio at the backend. The Brew Crew will score runs, but the Cubbies have better pitching.
In the West, both the Dodgers and the Giants will struggle to score enough runs, though the Dodgers have partly addressed that situation by finally re-signing Manny Ramirez and taking a (costly) chance on his attitude being right. The Giants, in particular, have strong starting pitching and are just a bat away from winning the division, though they seem loathe to get involved in bringing a big free agent bat to the club. Bengie Molina is the team's best hitter, which speaks volumes.
There's little else to excite in the National League and I remain convinced that both pennants will be won by teams coming out of the East and that the East will provide both league's wild card representatives. Pressed to name the two winners before the season starts, I'd go for Tampa Bay and New York Mets.
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