It seems like this weekend went a long way to figuring out who will head on to the NBA's Conference Finals. Los Angeles and Orlando have all forged ahead in their respective series, and Phoenix closed out a sweep of San Antonio Sunday night. Boston was the only team to make their series with Cleveland interesting.
For the sake of argument, let's just say the Lakers and Magic find a way to weave their way past Utah and Atlanta (respectively). Also, I'm going to leap out there and guess that home court will lead the Cavs to best the Celtics. At that time, the focus will shift to whichever team out of the remaining quartet can finish off the run to a title.
In my mind, the Lakers are clearly the favorite of the winning options listed above. But how big of a juggernaut are they? As with every sport from here to eternity, several factors will be dissected to try and find a strength for the underdogs or a weakness against the mighty. I'll start by picking at some of these "normal" characteristics. (All factors are evaluated like any kind of basketball video game, that is, on a scale from 0 to 100.)
Experience
When last year's finalists get this far into the process, you would figure that they dominate this category. The only cog that differs from the defending champion Lakers is Ron Artest. His pseudo-trade for Trevor Ariza marks the only shift L.A. made last summer. There's been a little more fluctuation with the Magic. Hedo Turkoglu, Courtney Lee, and Rafer Alston are not sharing this playoff journey. Vince Carter, though, is helping to make up for those losses.
The Cavs do have a faint memory of their 2007 Finals disaster. Four members currently on the roster (Lebron James, Anderson Varejao, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Daniel Gibson) were there for the sweep by the Spurs. But even with that, and Shaquille O'Neal's four rings, this characteristic is lacking. It's really lacking for the Suns, a team with zero games of Finals experience.
Lakers — 95
Magic — 83
Cavs — 27
Suns — 0
Around the Perimeter
This is kind of tricky. Phoenix is probably the most consistent team when it comes to outside shooting. Orlando is by far the most deadly. When the Magic are on, beating them is tougher than a rubbery steak. L.A. is probably the most clutch squad, with Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher, and Shannon Brown among those that can put away a game. Cleveland basically lags behind the crowd. They go as much as Mo Williams and Delonte West allow them to (and sometimes, that's at a crawl).
Magic — 82
Suns — 77
Lakers — 61
Cavs — 38
Post Presence
If height is what you desire, then the purple and gold is where to start. The Lakers made their home in the paint late in the series against Oklahoma City and heavily in the early part of their tussle with the Jazz. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum can create havoc inside ... when L.A. wants to use that advantage. The Suns don't have a "classic" post game, but Amar'e Stoudemire will definitely attract attention and be available to defend by the basket.
In the East, it very well may be the Battle of the Supermen. The Smallville version (Dwight Howard) and the Metropolis veteran (O'Neal) will get a lot of the attention. At this point, Howard is by far the bigger defensive presence. However, Shaq knows how to draw a foul, or four. And don't count out Varajao and opponent Marcin Gortat having an impact if this series shapes up.
Lakers — 91
Magic — 86
Cavs — 79
Suns — 68
Coaching
Until further notice, Phil Jackson is head and shoulders above the competition. Both Stan Van Gundy and Mike Brown have Finals experience, but both share a 1:11 ratio with Jackson. Alvin Gentry can't even boast that. While the other three (and six of the final eight head coaches) have gone through their first Finals experience, he's making only his second playoff run at the end of his third full season as a head coach (the other two with the Clippers). There's really not any other evidence to present, Your Honor.
Lakers — 99
Magic — 78
Cavs — 75
Suns — 47
According to the logical, statistical output, L.A.'s got a humungous gap over the competition. But there's always stuff we can't see that makes any contest much more intriguing. In 2006, Dennis Gallagher of 82Games.com did an interesting piece involving how titles were dispersed due to more "awarding" factors. I thought, "Why not look at other criteria to crown a champ?" So I took a slight offshoot of Mr. Gallagher's article and found a couple different things to look at for each team.
"Legends of the Summer" Factor
It's easy to distinguish the leading men in these casts. Kobe Bryant is the most prolific of the four, with an MVP, four titles, and a distinction as the best scorer in Lakers history. LeBron James is making due with shining his second consecutive MVP trophy. Nash's immediate impact in Phoenix earned him back-to-back MVP honors a few years ago. Howard may not have that illustrious hardware to boast about, but he's no slouch as the reigning, two-time, defensive POY.
One thing that most champions have in common is that you can look in the huddle and pick out multiple Hall-of-Famers. Since 1960, it appears that only two teams that won a championship weren't equipped with at least one person enshrined in Springfield. One squad will have their status changed in August (1979 Seattle Supersonic guard Dennis Johnson will be posthumously inducted this year). That leaves the 2004 Detroit Pistons as the only team that may not be shouldered by a future Hall of Fame player.
So how much stock will I put in these last four teams of 2010, based on the leading men and their legend potential?
Lakers (Bryant) — 98
Cavs (James) — 95
Suns (Nash) — 87
Magic (Howard) — 84
The Shining Star Factor
Along with the connection to greatness, these teams have a more instant impact through the form of all-stars. Usually, the cosmos aligns in a way that all-stars congregate to one team like a swarm of bees to a single patch of flowers. This season, both Phoenix and L.A. had two players selected to participate in the mid-February showcase. James and Howard were the only players to represent their teams, but past all-star talent (O'Neal and Carter) was brought in to upgrade championship possibilities. So how do all the teams stack up as far as overall experienced star power?
Lakers — 87
Suns — 85
Cavs — 80
Magic — 72
The "Know Your Role" Factor
Legends and stars may carry the lion share of the work and glory concerning their rings, but even they don't make up a complete team. Where would those embodied in bronze busts be without the Byron Scotts, Jim Paxsons, Robert Horrys, and Bruce Bowens of the world?
It's the players stepping out of the shadows for a game or two that can provide them with a statement for their career and fans with a prideful memory. It was on display Friday night, when Suns backup point guard Goran Dragic went bonkers in the fourth quarter against the Spurs. Through Saturday night's games, here's where those that ride the pine stood:
Magic bench — 24.6 ppg, 12.4 rpg (24.3%, 30.0%)
Lakers bench — 23.0 ppg, 13.1 rpg (23.0%, 29.5%)
Cavs bench — 23.4 ppg, 13.1 rpg (22.8%, 32.8%)
Suns bench — 32.4 ppg, 16.5 rpg (30.8%, 39.0%)
With the numbers out for the perusing, here's how I analyze the information:
Suns — 83
Magic — 72
Cavs — 63
Lakers — 55
Overall
In the end, I think the Lakers are still the overall favorite. But instead of these "normal" numbers telling the story:
Lakers — 87
Magic — 82
Cavs — 55
Suns — 48
These would be the numbers with the inclusion of the "Legendary" quotient:
Lakers — 84
Magic — 80
Cavs — 65
Suns — 64
Those final factors may not flip the script and make the weakest team into the favorites, but it might draw things a little closer overall.
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