Rise of a New Big Red Machine? Not So Fast

When the Cincinnati Reds beat the St. Louis Cardinals 7-2 on Sunday to push the Cardinals out of first place in the NL Central for the first time since July 31, 2009, it was cause for celebration at Great American Ball Park.

After years of futility, not having won the Central since 1995, it's finally the Reds looking down on the rest of the pack. They've got exciting young stars on offense and on the pitching staff, a general manager who knows what he's doing, and a division lacking a dominant power (as yet).

But does this mean Cincinnati has finally arrived, or are they merely enjoying a vacation in the penthouse while St. Louis figures itself out?

Let's just say Reds fans shouldn't go canceling those October vacation plans just yet.

The Reds do have quite a bit going for them. In Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati has the core of a pretty good lineup. Add in a resurgent Scott Rolen and the eternally-consistent Orlando Cabrera providing veteran leadership, and this is a team that can swing the bats and play some good defense.

Pitching-wise, GM Walt Jocketty has to be concerned with his two most established starters, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, carrying 6.02 and 4.78 ERAs, respectively. But 24-year-old Johnny Cueto has allowed just 1 earned run while striking out 15 in his last 15 innings in consecutive wins over the Pirates and Brewers. And there is more help on the way with 2008 all-star Edinson Volquez (serving concurrent terms for Tommy John surgery and a PEDs suspension) and Cuban import Aroldis Chapman both expected to join the club this summer. So there is a lot there to build on with the Reds.

But Cincinnati fans would do well to remember the road to winning a division requires a lot more than touching first by a half game in mid-May.

Now it's anybody's guess why Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday can't hit with runners in scoring position (.170) and why Albert Pujols' strikeout rate has gone from a career 8.9 k/ab to 5.9 k/ab in 2010. (In an effort to jumpstart the two, Tony La Russa flipped them in the order on Monday night.) But it's worth noting that Holliday was only hitting .267 with 4 homers this time last year in Oakland. And Pujols is still hitting .324 with a .427 OBP, 8 home runs, and 29 RBI, not too shabby for a guy in a prolonged slump.

The St. Louis pitching staff has posted a major league-high 31 quality starts and only San Diego and Tampa Bay have lower team ERAs than the Cardinals. Lefty Jaime Garcia is a legitimate candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award (which Jason Heyward has not yet won, contrary to what you might have heard). David Freese looks to have been a real find at third (not bad for a washed-up Jim Edmonds). And catcher Yadier Molina is now the unquestioned king of Molinas (take that Jose!).

When you stack the rosters of the Reds and Cardinals, it's no contest. St. Louis has the better lineup (Brendan Ryan notwithstanding) and far better pitching (Kyle Lohse notwithstanding). And anybody who would take Dusty Baker over La Russa is just plain nuts.

Of course, putting it all together is another matter. Holliday needs to get his head straight. Pujols needs to stop expanding the zone. And Brendan Ryan desperately needs to re-grow the mustache from last year.

So it's the Reds' division now. How long they can hold it will largely depend on whether St. Louis ever realizes how good they're supposed to be.

Given the Cardinals' track record of success, Cincinnati fans should enjoy it all now, because this whole "first-place Reds" thing isn't likely to last long.