San Francisco, Colorado, and San Diego enter the stretch run of the baseball season in a close NL West race. Entering Sept. 13, San Francisco and San Diego were tied for the division lead and Colorado was 1.5 games behind them. The National League West and East have baseball's best races and the tightest race is in the NL West.
The American League playoff picture appears to be getting clearer the deeper baseball season goes into September.
The Texas Rangers look like the AL West champs. The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays appear to be in the playoffs as either the AL East champion or a wild card team. There may be a little drama left in the AL Central as the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox battle for the division crown with 6 games separating the teams.
All of the drama appears to reside in the National League. Philadelphia has a 1-game lead in the NL East and Atlanta is in the lead for the wild card, by a game. Six games separate Cincinnati and St. Louis, but the Reds appear like the Twins to be closing in on the division crown.
Atlanta, Philadelphia, Colorado, San Francisco, and San Diego are vying for the final three playoff spots. The Cardinals appear to be out of the wild card race as they are 6.5 games and four teams out of the wild card chase. With the wild card race so close, the only guarantee for the NL East and NL West teams playoff hopes is to win the division.
Although it is possible that the wild card team could come out of the NL West, the only certain way into the playoffs is to win the division. In order to handicap the race, a look at the remaining games and players is needed. Here's closer look at the NL West's remaining schedules and teams reveals.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have won 10 straight games and have 19 games left. Colorado's remaining schedule in the order they will play each team, and how they have faired against each team includes:
* 3 games at home versus San Diego (11-4)
* 3 games in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers (5-7)
* 3 games on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks (8-6)
* 3 games at home to face the Giants (8-7)
* 3 games at home to entertain the Dodgers (5-7)
* 4 games at St. Louis to end the season (3-0)
The team has nine home games left and is 49-22 at home. Colorado has 10 road games on their remaining schedule and is 29-42 away from Coors Field.
Colorado is 35-24 against its remaining opponents. Six games against the Dodgers could mean Los Angeles is poised to be the spoiler of the Colorado's season.
The Rockies hold the National League's best winning percentage in the month of September since 2007. They have a .633 winning percentage in the month since 2007. Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez is first in the National League in batting average and slugging percentage, third in runs, tied for fourth in home runs, third in RBI, and first in hits. Ubaldo Jimenez has been great all season and has 18 wins.
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they have 18 games left. Their schedule in order is:
* 3 games at home against the Dodgers (8-7)
* 3 games at home to face the Milwaukee Brewers (4-0)
* 3 games in Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs (3-1)
* 3 games at Colorado (7-8)
* 3 games at home against the Diamondbacks (10-5)
* 3 games at home to end the season against San Diego (4-10)
The Giants have 12 remaining home games where they are 42-27. San Francisco has six road games and they are 38-36 on the road.
San Francisco is 36-31 against the remaining teams on its schedule. They will face Colorado and San Diego and the Giants are a combined 11-18 against both teams.
The Giants have won 21 of their last 32 contests against NL West teams with 12 game left against the Dodgers, Rockies, and Padres.
San Francisco's team ERA is the lowest in the majors for the month of September. The Giants bullpen entered Monday's game allowing 1 earned run in 22 innings (0.41 ERA) and held opponents to a .164 batting average. For the year, the bullpen has the third lowest ERA in the National League.
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres are slumping with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games and have 20 games remaining on the schedule:
* 3 games at Colorado (4-11)
* 4 games at St Louis (2-1)
* 3 games in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers (8-7)
* 3 games home versus the Reds (2-1)
* 4 home games against the Cubs (4-0)
* 3 games on the road against the Giants to end the season (10-4)
The Padres have seven home games left and are 42-31 at home. San Diego has 13 road games where they are 38-30.
San Diego is 30-24 against the teams left on its schedule. San Diego will get to face Colorado and San Francisco and they are a combined 14-15 against them.
The pitching staff has 18 shutouts and is tied for most in the majors. Heath Bell is second in the NL with 40 saves and has converted his last 27 saves. The bullpen has combined to allow 2 runs over 20 innings of work (0.90 ERA). The nine relievers used in the last six games have recorded 24 strikeouts, averaging 1.2 strikeouts per inning pitched.
In his last 34 games, Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .364 with 9 doubles, 6 home runs, 22 RBI, and 19 runs scored with a .435 on-base percentage and a .574 slugging percentage.
Conclusion
More home games and a superior home record appear to favor the Giants. Colorado has proven it is the best baseball team in September since 2007. The Padres are slumping, but once they get past the Rockies series, they will face teams they are 26-13 against, including 10-4 against the Giants, who they face the last weekend of the season.
The pitching for all three clubs appears to be strong and there are enough hitters on each team to keep the race close. The National League West could come down to the final weekend of the season, when the Giants and Padres play each other. The Rockies are on the road for their final four games against the Cardinals and haven't lost to them in 2010.
San Diego's recent 4-13 record, and San Francisco's struggles against the Padres, could spell trouble for each team. Colorado is positioned well to steal the division during the last weekend of the season with four games against the Cardinals.
The tight NL West race will make for a September that may be cool on the field, but hot in the standings. In the end, however, it may be too close to call and a one game playoff could be necessary as it has been in the past. The question is who will the two teams be this year?
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