With the official onset of October, we're finally going to see some separation at the top of the college football power structure. Oh, we've had a few big games in September. Miami went up to Ohio State. Penn State went down to Alabama. LSU played two non-conference top 25 teams in North Carolina (Lite) and West Virginia. But really, most of the top teams have feasted on sub-BCS has-beens getting paid to have their asses handed to them (James Madison excepted, of course).
But no more. October is time for teams with big stadiums and bigger egos to prove on the field that they should be taken seriously. No more Austin Peay (Wisconsin). No more San Jose State (Alabama, Wisconsin, Utah). And no more Portland State (Oregon). It's time to put on your big boy pants and get to work.
There are 24 undefeated teams left in FBS, 20 of whom are playing this week, and half of those in games against another undefeated team. Week 5 will make a few statements and break a few dreams.
Here are the main games to keep an eye on. (And since I'm a degenerate jackass who thinks he knows what he's talking about, I'm putting my fictional money where my fictional mouth is.)
(Suck on that, hypocrisy.)
Stanford (4-0) @ Oregon (4-0)
You know the Pac-10 is having a great season when Florida/Alabama isn't the biggest game of two undefeated teams on a given weekend. But this game will go a long way toward establishing supremacy in the Pac-10 (with all due respect to Arizona), and very well could play a prominent role in determining the eventual BCS champion (if Oregon wins). Oregon had been crushing everybody until that weird game against Arizona State that saw the Ducks fall behind 24-14 before turning it on. Stanford, meanwhile, is doing a bang-up job in Jim Harbaugh's extended NFL interview, easily taking out all four of their opponents, including Notre Dame in South Bend last week.
The Cardinal have the definite advantage at quarterback with Andrew Luck, while the Ducks are dominant on the ground with LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner (if they would give him the damn ball). Both defenses have been equally as effective. The game is at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, so you have to give the Ducks the advantage, but I'm not willing to give them seven points. Stanford for the cover.
Florida (4-0) @ Alabama (4-0)
This might be a namesake game between the Urban Meyers and the Nick Sabans, and it will get its due unreasonable hype, but there's no questioning who is the better team this year. Roll Tide at -7 (and hard).
Oklahoma State (3-0) and Texas A&M (3-0)
These two kick the weekend off this Thursday night in Stillwater. By scoring a combined 171 points in beating Washington State, Troy, and Tulsa, Oklahoma State proved they have the offensive chops. But in giving up an average of nearly 28 points per game, including 38 to Troy, the defense has yet to prove it's going to be able to stop anybody when it counts.
Luckily for the Cowboys, their first test comes against a Texas A&M squad that has built its undefeated 3-0 record on the backs of Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, and Florida International, who actually held a 20-7 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Of particular concern is the performance of senior quarterback Jerrod Johnson, who completed just 11-of-31 pass attempts against FIU, with 4 interceptions to go along with 1 touchdown. He was sacked 6 times, not exactly what you're looking for out of your offense against a winless Golden Panthers squad coming off a 3-9 season and picked to finish sixth in the Sun Belt.
Vegas clearly doesn't know what to do with either team, giving State the home-field three point edge. In the end, the Cowboys' advantage on offense overcomes the Aggies' advantage on defense and Oklahoma State keeps going on what could be a 6-0 start heading into their Oct. 23 home tilt against Nebraska.
Wisconsin (4-0) @ Michigan State (4-0)
I'd like to get excited about this matchup between two top-25 teams, but it's hard when you've seen so many Big Ten teams start off 4-0 or 5-0, feeding on MAC chum before knocking each other off and leaving Ohio State and the only legit national contender. Wisconsin barely survived Arizona State at home. Michigan State's biggest pass play of the season was on a fake punt. In the end, the home team has won this game each time it's been played since 2002, so go Spartans (+1). But really, unless you actually went to these one of these schools or happen to be 70-years-old, you should probably switch over to Texas/Oklahoma or even Michigan/Indiana. Or maybe take a walk or read a book or something.
Michigan (4-0) @ Indiana (3-0)
Everybody knows about Michigan's Denard Robinson. He's incredible. He's awesome. He's from Deerfield Beach, FL (great underrated vacation spot). And the way he plays, it's a good thing backups Devin Gardner and Tate Forcier knocked the rust off during the Wolverines' 65-21 pasting of Bowling Green. But here are two other things we know about Robinson (you know, other than the fact he's incredible and awesome): 1) He won't be an NFL starting quarterback (hello Josh Cribbs); and 2) He can't play defense.
Michigan gave up 535 yards to Notre Dame and 439 to UMass. And now they get a very underrated IU offense led by senior quarterback Ben Chappell, who has 9 touchdowns (to five different receivers) and no interceptions in leading the Hoosiers to their second straight 3-0 start.
Last year, Indiana's quest to go 4-0 was crushed by Michigan 36-33 at the Big House. With the rematch at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, watch for the shocker and ... ah, I can't do it. Michigan wins, but I'm taking IU to cover the 11.5.
A few other undefeateds to keep an eye on:
Oklahoma (4-0) — With Texas' brick laying at home against UCLA last weekend, the Red River Rivalry is relegated to afterthought. But this is still another chance for the Sooners to prove they deserve respect on a national scale, and they better not sleep on a Texas team that has the talent to pull the upset. Assuming Bob Stoops has his team ready to play, it's a safe bet to lay the modest four for Oklahoma.
Northwestern (4-0) — Playing at Minnesota is technically a conference road test, though you would have to use air quotes around the words test. Hell, you'd be hard-pressed to call the Gophers a legit FBS team at this point, with home losses to South Dakota and Northern Illinois in their last three (sandwiched around a "respectable" loss against USC). But still, if the Wildcats are going to give all their annoyingly nerdy sports writer alumni (Mike Greenberg) reason to brag, they have to be able to take care of a crappy Minnesota team on the road. Vegas is only laying five for Northwestern, which seems like pretty easy money. Go purple.
North Carolina State (4-0) — After the Wolfpack's dismantling of Georgia Tech in Atlanta last weekend, you would think they would get some respect heading home to face an up-and-down Virginia Tech squad that hasn't exactly lit the world on fire offensively. But Vegas doesn't appear to be buying in to State just yet, installing Tech as a 3.5-point favorite on the road. They're basically begging you to take State. And if there's one thing all gamblers know (or think they know; or I think they think they know), it's that when Vegas begs you to do something, do the opposite. So though every instinct tells me to take the Wolfpack, I'm going with rules over gut and taking Tech -3.5.
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