Five Quick Hits
* Best announcers this season: Mike Tirico, Matt Millen, and Dan Fouts.
* Congratulations to Texas Christian University on its victory in the Rose Bowl. How many times do we need Boise over Oklahoma and Utah over Alabama and TCU over Wisconsin before schools from the non-BCS conferences start getting the respect they deserve?
* Super Bowl XLV: New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons. For the second season in a row, we get the matchup everyone wants to see.
* Did anyone else have a problem with the screen changing size in the third and fourth quarters of the Rams/Seahawks game? I swear this is a problem with NBC, not LSD. Gave me a damn headache.
* Kansas City offensive coordinator Charlie Weis is leaving to accept the same position at the University of Florida. Maybe there's something I don't know about, but it seems weird to choose what effectively amounts to a demotion.
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The indispensable Pro-Football-Reference.com uses a simple rating system (SRS), based on strength of schedule and margin of victory, to evaluate teams. The result is like a point spread against an average team. According to the SRS, the 2010 Seattle Seahawks are by far the worst team ever to make the playoffs. The bottom five, excluding strike years:
1) 2010 Seahawks, -9.4
2) 1998 Cardinals, -7.4
3) 2004 Rams, -6.0
4) 1978 Falcons, -4.6
5) 1989 Steelers, -3.7
I'm not sure what this means, but all of the other four won their first playoff game. Moving on, our final power rankings of the 2010 season show year-end strength, not a complete summary of the season. Brackets show last week's rank.
1. New England Patriots [1] — Won four of their last five games by more than four touchdowns. That includes three playoff teams and all three division rivals (the Jets counting as both). Missing Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, Dan Connolly, Mike Wright, and Tully Banta-Cain — their top three receivers, top two pass rushers, and a starting offensive lineman — the Patriots still crushed Miami, 38-7. That includes a 38-0 lead after three quarters, before pulling the starters. Is Bill Belichick getting soft? In '07, that would have been 55-0. The Patriots were the only team in the league to go 8-0 at home this season.
2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — Nine wins in the last ten games. Atlanta led the NFL in Pro Bowlers (7): QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, FB Ovie Mughelli, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez, ST Eric Weems, and DE John Abraham. Too much credit to the offensive glamor positions, not enough to the rest of the team. Atlanta has the fifth-ranked scoring defense in the league. Only one Pro Bowler on that unit? Shenanigans. This team can run and pass, defends both of them, it's solid in the kicking game, and despite the Pro Bowl diss, has a very good offensive line, especially the guards. There are really no weaknesses to exploit.
3. Green Bay Packers [4] — We all know about Aaron Rodgers. He is now what Brett Favre was 10 or 15 years ago. But Green Bay also has the best defense in the NFC. The Packers ranked first or second in the conference in yards allowed, points allowed, sacks, interceptions, and opponents' passer rating (67.2). Derek Anderson had the same rating this season as opposing quarterbacks did against Green Bay. The Packers have a poor record on the road (3-5), but that's misleading. It includes close losses to the Falcons and Patriots, plus that fluke Lions game when Rodgers got a concussion in the first quarter. The wins were against the Eagles and Jets, plus a 31-3 blowout of the Vikings. Green Bay has played some of its most impressive games away from Lambeau, and is not a weak road team.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — Best defenses of the last decade:
1) '02 Buccaneers
2) '06 Ravens
3) '08 Steelers
4) '10 Steelers
5) '04 Steelers
6) '09 Jets
7) '05 Bears
8) '08 Ravens
9) '03 Patriots
10) '01 Steelers
Of the previous nine: two lost in the divisional round of the playoffs, five lost the AFC Championship Game, and three won the Super Bowl.
5. Baltimore Ravens [3] — Last week, Ed Reed intercepted 2 passes, his 10th career multi-interception game. This week, he intercepted two passes again! The league has probably never had two safeties as good as Troy Polamalu and Reed in their primes at the same time. Reed suffered a rib injury in Week 17, but reportedly will play in Kansas City on Sunday. The Ravens have won four in a row and six of their last seven.
6. New Orleans Saints [5] — Were they going 100% in the loss to Tampa Bay? Absolutely not. But Drew Brees attempted 38 passes and backup Chase Daniel attempted 3. The Saints wanted to win. Would you believe the defense had a better season (fourth in yards and seventh in scoring) than the offense (sixth and 11th)? The team has a long road trip to a loud stadium for its wild card game, but I'm picking New Orleans. The Saints went 6-2 on the road, and the Seahawks are probably the worst playoff team in history. The Saints won their previous matchup, in New Orleans on November 21, by a score of 34-19. Since this one's on the road and the Saints have some injuries, let's say New Orleans by 8.
7. Chicago Bears [6] — Question and answer time...
Q: Should we worry that the Bears lost two of their last four games?
A: No. The losses were to the Patriots and Packers. The Bears aren't falling apart, they just had a tough finish to the schedule.
Q: What should we worry about?
A: The offense. Chicago scored all of 7 points against New England, 3 against Green Bay. The Bears ranked 30th in yardage and 21st in scoring. No team has ever won a Super Bowl with an offense that bad. The standard is the '02 Bucs, 24th and 18th, but great at taking care of the ball (sixth-fewest turnovers). The 2010 Bears have their moments, but the offense just isn't consistent enough or explosive enough to put together a serious run in the postseason. This is a good team that deserves to be in the playoffs and has a decent shot to win at home, but needs to radically improve its offense before it can contend.
8. Indianapolis Colts [10] — Most analysts seem to believe this was a down year for Peyton Manning. He set a career high in passing yards and tied for second in touchdown passes, with a top-10 passer rating and by far the best sack percentage in the league. This was a better year than his 2008 MVP season. Top five in sack %:
1) Peyton, 2.3%
2) Eli, 2.9%
3) Drew Brees, 3.7%
4) Matt Ryan, 3.87%
5) Shaun Hill (!), 3.93%
The bottom five:
1) Jay Cutler, 10.7%
2) Jimmy Clausen, 9.9%
3) Jason Campbell, 9.1%
4) Michael Vick, 8.4%
5) David Garrard, 8.3%
9. New York Jets [13] — A lot of people are underestimating the Jets. In the last three weeks, they've demolished a division rival by 31 points, scored 34 against the Bears, and beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They went 11-5, including 6-2 on the road, and they seem to win when they have to. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has been uneven, but the ground attack ranks fourth in the NFL, and the defense is one of the league's best. That said, I'm taking the Colts at home. Indy by 3.
10. Philadelphia Eagles [8] — Has anyone who's been healthy most of the season had a more disappointing year than Kevin Kolb? Facing a terrible Dallas defense in the finale, he threw 3 interceptions and got outplayed by third-string Cowboy QB Stephen McGee. Yeah, I know the Eagles held out some starters, but Kolb entered the season looking to become a franchise QB, and he hasn't even played like a good backup. The Eagles host Green Bay on Sunday, a rematch of the Week 1 game Philadelphia lost, 27-20. Green Bay's defense is too good, and Aaron Rodgers is just going to carve up the Philly defense. I'll call for a repeat of the opener: Pack by 7.
11. Oakland Raiders [14] — I can't imagine how frustrating it is to be a fan of the Raiders. Tom Cable has totally turned this team around, taken the offense from 31st to top-10, earned the first non-losing season in nine years. In my mind, he's a serious Coach of the Year candidate. NFL Network's Michael Lombardi reports that owner Al Davis is unlikely to retain Cable. In related news, the Patriots are planning to fire Bill Belichick, and the Falcons think they can do better than Mike Smith. All kidding aside, things like this make you seriously worry about Davis' mental capacity. His judgement seems incredibly impaired at this point, and I wonder if he shouldn't be under supervision. The Raiders swept the AFC West this season, the first team ever to sweep a division without winning it.
12. San Diego Chargers [11] — Top-ranked offense and defense in the NFL, one of five teams to outscore its opponents by over 100 this season, but they missed the playoffs. In a fitting end to a season doomed by rancid special teams, the Chargers gave up a 97-yard kickoff return TD in the season finale. Before this season, the Chargers consistently had great special teams. Offseason priority: depth. And bring back Kassim Osgood.
13. New York Giants [12] — Since the league expanded to 32 teams, this is the first time two that finished 10-6 or better have missed the playoffs in the same season. All six: 2003 Dolphins, 2005 Chiefs, 2007 Browns, 2008 Patriots (11-5), 2010 Giants and Buccaneers. The Giants led the NFL in both takeaways (39) and turnovers (42). The last team to do so was the '03 Rams, who committed 39 turnovers but roped in 46 takeaways en route to a 12-4 finish. The worst turnover margins among winning teams in 2010: Giants (-3), Colts (-4), Chargers (-6), Saints (-6).
14. Kansas City Chiefs [9] — I'm picking the Ravens. I might have gone with KC against the Jets, but Baltimore is the wrong matchup. The Chiefs went 2-4 in the AFC West this year, the worst record for a division winner since the '71 49ers. Both the Chargers and Raiders just owned Kansas City inside the last month, winning by a combined 62-10. The Chiefs went 7-1 at home this year, and I'm not counting them out, but they played the easiest schedule in the AFC, can't throw, and really struggled at the end of the season. Baltimore by a touchdown.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [16] — First 10-win season since '05. The Bucs' leading rusher and receiver this season were LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams, respectively. That's a change from '09 leaders Cadillac Williams and Kellen Winslow, Jr. Cadillac and Winslow replaced '08 leaders Warrick Dunn and Antonio Bryant, who took over for '07 leaders Earnest Graham and Joey Galloway. Mike Williams and Blount are both rookies, so hopefully the team has finally found some stability. That certainly appears to be the case at quarterback, where Josh Freeman looks like a star.
16. Detroit Lions [15] — Longest winning streak in the NFL: Patriots, 8. Second-longest: (tie) Colts, Lions, Ravens, 4 each. This is Detroit's first four-game win streak since 1999. This team finally appears to be moving in the right direction. Best turnover differential among losing teams: Rams (+5), Lions (+4), Cowboys (0), Texans (0).
17. Cincinnati Bengals [22] — Don't trust the highlight shows. Jerome Simpson caught 12 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown, true. He also lost 2 fumbles, including one that set up the game-winning touchdown. The Bengals improved immensely in the last month of the season. Maybe 2-3 doesn't sound impressive, but it is after starting 2-9, especially because the losses came against the Saints, Steelers, and Ravens. No shame there. It's clear now that the distractions were more trouble than they were worth. No one blames ownership for taking a chance, but it's time to move on.
18. Dallas Cowboys [19] — Jason Garrett went 5-3 as head coach, and the Cowboys' offense was top-10. When everyone is healthy next season, they figure to score a ton. But can they stop anyone? This year's Cowboys allowed the most points in team history. The secondary needs a drastic overhaul, through free agency and the draft, and the new coach, whether it's Garrett (as everyone expects) or someone else, likely will look for a new defensive coordinator.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Lost their last three, including two straight to teams that finished 6-10. Head coach Jack Del Río reportedly will get another season at the helm, and I think that's appropriate, but he's clearly got some work to do. Jacksonville was -15 in turnovers this year. The Jags are very good at one thing, running the football. They're bad at passing, and they can't play defense. David Garrard is an acceptable starting quarterback, but he needs better receivers. The defense, a powerhouse five years ago, is awful. Jacksonville's first three draft picks this April: defensive end, wide receiver, defensive back, though not necessarily in that order. It wouldn't hurt to tackle one of those needs in free agency, either.
20. Miami Dolphins [18] — One of the most amazing home/road splits in history, 1-7 at home and 6-2 on the road. Chad Henne does not look like the answer at quarterback, and it may be time to replace Ricky Williams with someone younger. The defense is very good. Miami closed the season with three straight losses.
21. Minnesota Vikings [20] — You think he's gone?! He's not gone! He's never gone!
22. San Francisco 49ers [26] — Won big in Week 17, with star performances by Justin Smith (3 sacks), Vernon Davis (96 yards, TD), and Brian Westbrook (2 TDs). I don't understand why Westbrook wasn't a bigger part of the gameplan after Frank Gore got hurt. He made big plays when they gave him a chance.
23. Tennessee Titans [24] — Lost eight of their last nine, and it remains to be seen whether Jeff Fisher will return next season. The situation seems to be that he is invited back as long as Vince Young is his starting QB. Coach Fisher seems like he might prefer to look for work elsewhere if that's the way it's going to be. Like him or not, the team is clearly better with Young than with Kerry Collins. If Young really can't keep his act together, the team needs to find a new quarterback. There's no reason the Titans should be losing.
24. Seattle Seahawks [31] — The first-ever division champ with a losing record. When the 8-8 San Diego Chargers won the AFC West two years ago, there was nothing resembling an outcry. Why not? The Chargers were a good team. They had made the AFC Championship Game the year before, had talent on the roster, outscored their opponents by 92 points, and were hot going into the playoffs. The Seahawks are not a good team. They haven't had a winning record in three years, have no Pro Bowlers, got outscored by 97, and came into Week 17 having lost three in a row and five of their last six. The Seahawks' inclusion in the postseason feels particularly unjust because the 10-6 Giants and Buccaneers, both clearly more deserving, didn't qualify.
25. Houston Texans [30] — Fired four defensive coaches, including coordinator Frank Bush. Former Cowboys HC Wade Phillips, a former assistant with the Oilers and the son of legendary Houston coach Bum Phillips, is expected to replace Bush. Between the arrival of Phillips and the returns of DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams, the Texans figure to field a respectable defensive unit to complement an offense that is already top-10. Houston's biggest problem this season was injuries, and if the team stays healthy in 2011, it could be a contender.
26. Buffalo Bills [21] — Worst turnover differential in the league, -17. Maybe they can talk Aaron Schobel out of retirement. Heck, get on the phone with Cornelius Bennett while you're at it. Yeah, he's 45, but he can't be worse than the guys they have now.
27. St. Louis Rams [23] — If the voters had any clue at all — which they assuredly do not — Sunday night's loss would definitively crush the Sam Bradford for Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Bradford just wilted in the most important game of the season, and it's not like he was lighting it up before that. His 76.5 passer rating ranked 25th in the NFL, behind three backups (Jon Kitna, Kerry Collins, and Shaun Hill), two guys who got benched (Kyle Orton and Donovan McNabb), and San Francisco's Alex Smith. The Rams had the 26th-ranked offense in the league, and we're supposed to celebrate the guy who ran it?
Here are some ideas for more deserving candidates: Tampa RB LeGarrette Blount (1,007 yds, 5.0 avg, 6 TD), Tampa WR Mike Williams (65 rec, 964 yds, 11 TD), Patriot TE Rob Gronkowski (42 rec, 546 yds, 10 TD), Tennessee KR Marc Mariani (KR TD, PR TD, led NFL in combined return yardage, Pro Bowler), Pittsburgh C Maurkice Pouncey (started every game, Pro Bowler), Oakland WR/KR Jacoby Ford (155 rush yds, 15.5 avg, 2 TD, 25 rec, 470 yds, 2 TD, 24.2 KR avg, 3 KR TD). Two Pro Bowlers, a 1,000-yard rusher with a great average, the most explosive kickoff returner in the league, and a couple guys with double-digit receiving touchdowns are all less impressive than a rookie QB who was totally undistinguished except that he started every game and threw a lot? I'm not buying it. The other guys were above average at their positions, while Bradford was below average at his.
28. Washington Redskins [27] — Lost three of the last four games by a field goal or less. In two of the three, rookie kicker Graham Gano missed short field goals. On the whole, though, Gano was the least of Washington's problems this season. Foremost is personnel, a perennial problem under Daniel Snyder, followed by the coaching staff's stunning mismanagement of players. I suppose Mike Shanahan probably has a plan, but it's not apparent what he's trying to do.
29. Cleveland Browns [25] — Losers of four straight, they'll also be looking for a new head coach this offseason. Firing HCs after two years is ridiculous, and it's not Eric Mangini's fault that he took over a team without any offense. That said, the Browns didn't exactly rise up to save their boss' job. Cleveland closed the season with a 41-9 loss to its biggest rival. That's an awful taste to have in your mouth for the next nine months.
30. Arizona Cardinals [28] — Fell apart without Kurt Warner and Karlos Dansby. Byron Leftwich will be a free agent after this season. He's 30, which is not old for a quarterback, and he knows Ken Whisenhunt's offensive system. The Cardinals would do well to bring him in for a look. Opponents outscored the Cardinals by 145 points this season, second-worst in the league.
31. Denver Broncos [29] — Tim Tebow destroyed my fantasy team. We go through Week 17, and I was in a tight battle for first place. Just before kickoff on Sunday, the guy I was competing with benched Jay Cutler and picked up Tebow (we play more than one QB). I thought he was using Cutler, meaning I had won, but Tebow's 94 rushing yards and 3 TDs doomed me to second. Curse you, Tim Tebow. Also, Pat Bowlen, Josh McDaniels, Eric Studesville, and anyone else I can blame for this.
32. Carolina Panthers [32] — Only team to go 0-8 on the road this season, also the only team outscored by 150 points, by 212 in fact — 408-196.
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