While the state of Wisconsin gets drunk on Miller and 18-year-old Cheddar celebrating the Super Bowl, the end of the NFL season officially kicks us off into the stretch run to March Madness. We're only a few weeks away from the first conference tournaments and barely a month from Selection Sunday.
This year's tournament will be different in that rather than 65 teams, this year's bracket will feature 68 teams, with the bottom four 16 seeds and the bottom four at-large seeds facing off the Tuesday and Wednesday before the tournament to earn entry into the "second round."
Frankly, I wish the NCAA had just left well enough alone with the old format, because we don't need two more mediocre at-large teams, and it sucks that now instead of one small-conference champ getting screwed out of the full bracket experience, two such teams will get the shaft. But you'll never get anywhere in life if you spend all your energy bitching and moaning about what should have been, so 68 it is and we go from there.
The one thing that won't change this year is the search for the upset. Everybody loves a Cinderella, unless of course one is knocking off the team you picked to win it all like Northern Iowa did to Kansas last season.
Over the past four tournaments 24 of the 112 teams with a double-digit seeding have won their first-round game, with seven of those moving on to the Sweet 16, and one of those, Davidson in 2008, moving into the Elite 8. The key of course is figuring out which ones. Here are three to keep an eye on:
George Mason, Colonial
I swear I began last weekend all ready to write a strictly George Mason article. I even had a headline: "The next George Mason? George Mason." But then the Patriots went out and smacked Hofstra and Old Dominion by a combined 36 points and come Monday there were "Watch out for George Mason" articles all over the web. So rather than a whole article extolling the virtues of head coach Jim Larranaga and the scoring tandem of senior guard Cam Long (15.5 ppg) and junior forward Ryan Pearson (14.4 ppg), I'll just mention that the Patriots have an adjusted efficiency split of 21.26. That's important because only five of the 128 teams in the past four tournaments with a sub-20 adjusted efficiency split made the Sweet 16, and none made it to the Elite 8. Only three other non-BCS conference teams are currently sitting at 20+. The other three are all ranked in the AP top 25: No. 6 San Diego State, No. 7 BYU, and No. 21 Utah State.
(Note: You won't see BYU, San Diego State or Utah State on this list because I expect them to be the higher seeds in their first-round games. Maybe Utah State gets jobbed — ESPN's Joe Lunardi has them at a nine seed in his latest bracketology — but the depth of quality in the BCS conferences is so shallow right now, the Aggies deserve at least a seven- or eight-seed.)
Wichita State, Missouri Valley
The Shockers are the prototypical "sum is better than the parts" team, leading the Valley in scoring at 74.3 ppg without a single player averaging more than 12 points. They are also second in the league in scoring defense, giving up just 61.5 points per game, and lead the league in both field goal offense (.478) and field goal defense (.407). Their schedule is light, which could cause them to be under-seeded, but they played Connecticut to within four early in the season and actually held a second-half lead at San Diego State in early December before the Aztecs pulled ahead.
Remember this also: Head coach Gregg Marshall may not have any NCAA tournament appearances since taking over the Shockers in 2007, but he knows how to pull an NCAA tournament upset: As head coach at Winthrop in 2007, he became the first Big South coach to win an NCAA tournament game when his 11th-seeded Eagles beat six-seed Notre Dame. And he almost pulled the 15-2 upset over Tennessee in 2006.
Alabama Crimson Tide, SEC
What'chu talking 'bout, Willis? This is Cinderella territory man! BCS teams can't be Cinderella!
Sorry, but BCS teams get to pull upsets too. As a matter of fact, nearly half (16 of the 33) of the lower seeded teams to win their first-round games over the past four years came from a BCS conference. So stuff that in your mid-major and smoke it.
Back to the Tide, Lunardi has them at an 11-seed right now, which is understandable considering they were terrible to start the season, racking up losses to Seton Hall, Iowa, St. Peter's, and Providence. But since starting 5-6 the, Tide have won 10 of 11 with Ws over Kentucky and Tennessee (on the road) to make their way back to the conversation. Even if Alabama slips a few times the rest of the way, don't write them off as just another weak SEC squad. They are fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they don't have to play Wisconsin-style slow ball to get it done.
Of course, upsets aren't just about one team. Upsets happen because the strength of the lower-seeded team matches up with the weakness of the higher seeded team. But without knowing who is playing who for another month, all we can do for now is identify teams who look primed for an upset. Here are three I'm hoping to see against one of my Cinderellas-in-waiting above.
Florida State Seminoles, ACC
I have to admit I'm rooting for the Seminoles to do well through the rest of their ACC slate just so they'll get a higher seed and it will be a bigger upset when they lose. Seventeen teams over the past four years have come in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of less than 101.0. All 17 have flamed out in the first round. FSU's adjusted offensive efficiency as of Monday? 100.52.
One other note: The last time the ACC made it through the first round without suffering an upset was 2006. In the four years since then, ACC teams have been on the losing end of seven first-round upsets, three by Clemson and one each by Florida State, Wake Forest, Duke, and Boston College. If I thought Clemson had a chance at making the tournament as a top eight seed, I'd just go with them. But since I don't think that will happen, FSU seems like the best bet to continue the streak.
Missouri Tigers, Big 12
The Tigers don't have a flameout stat profile, but this is a gut thing based on watching a good number of their games living St. Louis. The bottom line is the guards on this team just aren't good enough. Marcus Denmon is doing his part, but Kim English has been so inconsistent coach Mike Anderson started bringing him off the bench in an attempt to get him to play more under control. In the Tigers' five road conference losses, English has hit just 11 of his 43 shot attempts for a total of 37 points. Whenever the guy who takes the second most shots on your team ends up with less than a point per shot, that's not good. It's also not a real good thing when that same guy is a better shooter from three (44-112, .393) than from two (37-102, .363).
(And if you think I'm over-reacting to one guy's performance, ask Notre Dame fans how thankful they are to finally escape the Tory Jackson era. The Irish lost as the higher seed twice in the three first round games while Jackson was in South Bend. Bad guard play kills you in the NCAA tournament.)
Connecticut Huskies, Big East
You just don't know what you're going to get from Kemba Walker. The average of 23.2 points per game looks great, but averages don't win games. Consistency does. And Connecticut has no idea game by game whether Walker is going to go off for 30+, as he has six times this season, or whether he's going to build a brick city like he did against Syracuse last week (3-14 FG, 8 points). Walker's points per possession are the lowest of his career at 1.27, and that's a problem when almost all of your other contributors are freshmen and sophomores.
Also, I know Roscoe Smith was a highly touted recruit and all, but he doesn't attack on offense and he doesn't rotate on defense. He just stands there and waits for something good to happen. It's not entirely unexpected from an overmatched freshman forward making the jump into the Big East, but the fact he has played almost 65 percent of the minutes (26.5 mpg) is a bad sign that UConn has no better options. And when you combine weak post play with inconsistent guard play, that spells U-P-S-E-T.
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