Final Four: College Hoops Truly Gone Mad

When I received the assignment to write a college basketball article for this week, my head started to spin. How do you pick just one thing to write about when you not only have the most unlikely Final Four in the modern tournament era (since 1980), but you have the annual coaching carousel spinning at frantic speed?

Butler and VCU playing for a shot at the title. Mike Anderson ditching Missouri like a guy dumping his wife for his old high school girlfriend. One of John Calipari's best coaching jobs — ever. Tennessee's curious hire of Cuonzo Martin from Missouri State. Arizona missing a wide-open three for a shot at the Final Four in Sean Miller's second year.

I mean, how the heck do you pick just one?

You don't.

Virginia is for Lovers. And shooters. By now you've read that only two of 5.9 million brackets in ESPN's Tournament Challenge had the Final Four correct. The primary reason is very few people were tempted to take "play-in winner" all the way through a bracket that contained Georgetown, Purdue, Notre Dame, and Kansas. But thanks to Jay Bilas' overreacting to VCU's inclusion into the field like it was some kind of affront to all that is holy and decent, Shaka Smart's crew has played with a chip the size of Kansas on their shoulders.

I'm sure you'll hear the word parity more than a few times this week, but that's not what this is about. The real lesson of VCU's run is that that you can do anything — as long as you are hot from three. In their five wins over USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State, and Kansas, VCU is 53-of-121 from long-range. That's 44% for a team that shot 36% on the season. When you average 24 attempts from three per game in the tournament, you better hit them. Virginia Commonwealth has, and that's why they're headed to Houston.

Self Destruction

The other side of the VCU glory is that a Bill Self-coached team under-performed yet again. In his 13 seasons as a head coach in the NCAA tournament (two with Tulsa, three with Illinois, and now eight with KU), Self's teams have failed to live up to their seeding seven times, including five of the past seven years with the Jayhawks. I know he gets a grace period for winning the title in 2008, but his serial failure to meet expectations in the tournament has to be of serious concern in Lawrence.

To put it in some context, I broke down several of the coaches in this year's tournament as it related to their performance compared to their seeding, assigning a point value for each game a team either exceeded or failed to meet their seed line. For example, if you're a nine-seed or lower, you are expected to lose in the first round. Any game you win is +1 per win. Conversely, if you are a one-seed, you are expected to get to the Final Four. If you win the title (two wins past the Final Four), that's +2; if you lose in the Elite 8, that's -1.

In his 13 tournaments, Self is -5. Self's predecessor, Roy Williams, is only slightly better at -4 in 21 career tournaments, but it's worth noting Williams is actually +2 since moving to North Carolina. It's also worth noting Williams has seven Final Fours to his credit, while Self still has just the one.

A few other notables: Michigan State's Tom Izzo is tops with 12 points in 14 tournaments. Jim Calhoun is +5 in 22 tournaments with a chance at two more if he wins his third title. Mike Krzyzewski is -2 in 27 tournaments, made even more shocking by the fact he was at +10 after back-to-back titles in 1991 and 1992. Calipari, a notorious tournament underachiever, is a career -4 in 13 tournaments and that includes a +2 already this year.

Butler's Brad Stevens is off to a great start at +7 in four seasons with the Bulldogs. Arizona's Miller is +4 in five tournaments with Xavier and Arizona. Rick Pitino is +3 in 16 tournaments with Boston University, Providence College, Kentucky, and Louisville. And for all the accolades about what a great guy he is, Pittsburgh's Jamie Dixon is now -6 after his top-seeded Panthers suffered one of the dumbest losses in NCAA tournament history to Butler in the second round. (Seriously. Take your guys off the lane. There's no reason for them to be there. NO REASON!)

Show Me Your Resume

Sticking with head coaches, former Missouri head man Mike Anderson took his talents Fayetteville, leaving Mizzou officials searching for a replacement. There's no point in lamenting Anderson's move. Sure, it was messy, what with his agent playing both schools against each other and leaving everybody hanging for a week or so, but that's business. Anderson spent 17 years with the Hogs under Nolan Richardson, so one can hardly blame him for wanting to return home and attempt to return the program to its glory days.

As for Missouri, current speculation surrounds Purdue coach Matt Painter, who will reportedly meet with Missouri athletic director Mike Alden about the position. Personally, I have a hard time buying it. Painter is a Purdue guy, and there's nothing to suggest that Missouri and the diminished Big 12 would offer any kind of step up from Purdue and the expanded Big 10. This has all the makings of a play on the part of Painter's representation to push his current administration into a making a commitment, both in salary and in facilities for the program. Then again, if Purdue officials are dumb enough to let Painter walk, Missouri fans should rejoice — Painter is a huge step up from Anderson.

If Missouri can't land Painter, there's a pretty big drop to the next tier of candidates. With openings remaining at Oklahoma and NC State, Mizzou is not the only (or necessarily best) job on the market. And with Richmond's Chris Mooney signing a 10-year extension, Butler's Stevens locked in with the Bulldogs (signed through 2022), and Buzz Williams likely staying at Marquette (according to reports by ESPN's Andy Katz), the "big fish" talent pool is basically down to VCU's Shaka Smart, who has never worked west of Ohio. If Smart does jump (he's losing Jamie Skeen, Joey Rodriguez, and Brandon Rozzell, so now might be the time), my money is on NC State.

So where will that leave Mizzou? I'd love to see them take a look at Billy Kennedy from Murray State. Kennedy has won the Ohio Valley Coach of the Year Award each of the past two seasons, racking up a combined 54-14 record (31-5 in the OVC). In the 2010 NCAA tournament, the Racers beat four-seed Vanderbilt, then fell by just 2 to eventual runners-up Butler. Kennedy has experience in the midwest and southwest with assistant stints at Creighton and Texas A&M, and we know he'd be willing to move after he interviewed last March for the Auburn job that eventually went to UTEP's Tony Barbee.

A Few Quick Hitters

* Like all Arizona alums, I was super bummed about their loss to Connecticut in the Elite Eight. There was a split second when Jamelle Horne's three was in the air when I thought Arizona was going to the Final Four, but then the ball bounced off the rim and UConn was cutting down the nets. But once you get over the sting of defeat, you have to love where Miller has this program just two years removed from potential armageddon in the slow and messy transition out of the Lute Olson era. The Wildcats do lose the senior Horne off this team, and Derrick Williams' likely departure to the NBA will be a huge loss, but they return everybody else and add a monster recruiting class ranked eighth in the nation by ESPN. The future is very bright.

* I mentioned I thought this year's Kentucky team was Calipari's best coaching job ever, and much of that has to do with center Josh Harrellson. Putting together all-star teams of recruits is a testament to Calipari's recruiting prowess, but once highly-touted recruit Enes Kanter was declared ineligible, Calipari had to use his coaching chops to get the most out of Harrellson, who scored all of 28 points last year. Harrellson's development this year proves that the coaching skill that helped Calipari build winners at Massachusetts and Memphis hasn't disappeared just because he lands the best recruits year in and year out. Plus, it's not exactly a cake walk getting a bunch of freshmen to play like vets year after year.

* Former Calipari assistant Josh Pastner is going to have a monster team next season at Memphis if everybody comes back. The Tigers played out of control a lot, but I don't think I saw a more athletic team all season. If I'm a rival coach in Conference USA, I'm terrified of what Pastner is bringing next year. And I'm willing to bet big money that after Memphis goes on an NCAA tournament run next season, Pastner becomes a huge name in the 2012 coaching carousel.

* Jay Bilas is a smart guy and he knows his hoops, but nobody looked worse on Selection Sunday than Bilas for putting down VCU. It's one thing to argue for another team or disagree with the selection, but to denigrate a bunch of kids just to make your point is just a jerk move. (And it would have been just as bad had VCU lost the "first round" game to USC. It just makes Bilas look like more of an ass because they made the Final Four after supposedly not even passing the "laugh test.")

* Here's hoping Michigan's John Beilien keeps his team intact and makes another run in 2012. That was a fun team to watch.

* Former Missouri State coach Cuonzo Martin has been hired by Tennessee, which is odd considering the only real success of Martin's three-year tenure at Missouri State is riding Barry Hinson's final recruiting class to the 2011 MVC regular season title and the second round of the NIT. How exactly is that a resume worth an SEC job? This feels like a panic hire in the face of an uncertain future with the NCAA's hammer still hanging over the program.

* I wonder how the ratings for this year's Final Four will compare to past seasons. VCU/Butler is a good story and should be a entertaining game, but it's a Bracketbusters matchup, not a traditional power vs. power Final Four game. I'm guessing CBS execs are rooting for a Kentucky/Butler final. I'm going Connecticut/Butler, with Calhoun taking home his third national championship to Storrs.