The Run Home

Through the day before the trade deadline, the yearly cutoff for non-waiver deals has seldom felt less significant. A large part may relate to what is happening in the NFL, where the recently concluded lockout has dovetailed into a frantic free agency period. About as many big names in football have changed places over the last week as have relocated in baseball over the entirety of the 2011 season.

The biggest names to be traded in the week leading up to the deadline were Carlos Beltran and Hunter Pence. Both are quality players with above-average numbers, and should be able to help the contending Giants and Phillies, respectively. For Beltran, playing for the defending champions represents a departure from the high expectations he could never live up to, placed upon him by Mets fans and his MVP-caliber contract. For Pence, despite being uprooted from his native Texas, he moves from a team that has lost more than two-thirds of its games to the National League favorite.

Ubaldo Jimenez, a 19-game winner in 2010, was dealt to Cleveland for four prospects and represents the biggest pitching name to be moved in the past week. However, Jimenez has struggled at times in 2011, going just 6-9 with an ERA around 4.50. If you takeaway his Zack Greinke-esque breakout of last year, Jimenez is a pitcher with an ERA of about 4. He should be a very serviceable addition to the Tribe's rotation, but the majority of his career shows that he is not likely to be the ace Cleveland wants.

Despite the fact that the trade deadline doesn't always have blockbuster deals, it does signify that the regular season has only two months remaining and that pennant races are about to heat up. Each club has just about 55 games left to play, and regardless of whether teams have made deals at the deadline, every club knows about what they have roster-wise heading into the final weeks. Thus, it is a good time to look ahead to the ultimate stages of the season to see which contending teams are most likely to have success and which ones are the most susceptible to falling off due to a tough stretch run.

(Note: I define contending teams as those within seven games of first place in their division or the wild card as of July 30. The number of games back is as of July 31. Only games to be played on August 1 or later are counted in each tally.)

AL East

Boston Red Sox (lead AL East)
Games remaining: 56
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .503
Games against teams over .500: 36
Record against remaining teams: 43-25 (.632)

New York Yankees (trail BOS by 2 games, lead AL wild card)
Games remaining: 56
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .501
Games against teams over .500: 30
Record against remaining teams: 36-29 (.554)

Tampa Bay Rays (trail BOS by 10.5 games, trail NYY by 8.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 55
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .534
Games against teams over .500: 39
Record against remaining teams: 24-29 (.453)

If next year's likely playoff format of having two wild cards from one league were in place this year, all three of these teams would have a good shot at making the playoffs. Since it's not, the Rays will almost surely be on the outside looking in as the Yankees and Red Sox will likely play on in October. Neither games deficit is impossible to overturn for the Rays, but Tampa Bay has to play a much harder schedule, facing the Red Sox 10 times, the Yankees nine times and the Rangers six. Over two-thirds of the Rays' games in the last two months are against teams with winning records.

AL Central

Detroit Tigers (lead AL Central)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .473
Games against teams over .500: 19
Record against remaining teams: 34-15 (.694)

Cleveland Indians (trail DET by 1.5 games, trail NYY by 9.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 57
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .496
Games against teams over .500: 22
Record against remaining teams: 25-24 (.510)

Chicago White Sox (trail DET by 3 games, trail NYY by 11 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 56
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .487
Games against teams over .500: 29
Record against remaining teams: 27-37 (.422)

Minnesota Twins (trail DET by 6 games, trail NYY by 14 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .507
Games against teams over .500: 29
Record against remaining teams: 29-29 (.500)

The Tigers and Indians play each other 12 times from now until the end of the season, and this division may very well be decided by who wins the preponderance of those contests. However, Detroit is in the catbird's seat based on schedule and previous results. The Tigers have, by winning percentage, the easiest run home of any contender. Even better for the Tigers is the fact that their record against the remaining schedule is also the best of any AL contender. Yet, given the weaker records of the teams in the Central compared to the top teams in the East and West, all of the four teams listed will have plenty of opportunities to rack up victories against sub-.500 competition.

AL West

Texas Rangers (lead AL West)
Games remaining: 53
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .541
Games against teams over .500: 32
Record against remaining teams: 32-18 (.640)

Los Angeles Angels (trail TEX by 2 games, trail NYY by 5.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 53
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .488
Games against teams over .500: 23
Record against remaining teams: 27-22 (.551)

A funny thing happened as Texas was trying to run away with the division with a 12-game winning streak across either side of the All-Star Break: the Angels kept pace. As a result, the Angels have a prime opportunity to take advantage of an easier schedule than the Rangers while also playing them 10 times. The Rangers play first or second-place teams in the other two divisions 16 times, while Los Angeles only plays the same clubs on six occasions. One factor working in the Rangers' favor is that they have been excellent this season against the teams they have to face in order to win the division again.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies (lead NL East)
Games remaining: 55
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .503
Games against teams over .500: 27
Record against remaining teams: 41-28 (.594)

Atlanta Braves (trail PHI by 5 games, lead NL wild card)
Games remaining: 53
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .499
Games against teams over .500: 24
Record against remaining teams: 26-24 (.520)

The NL East looks a lot like the AL East: a first-place team that has been the favorite to reach the World Series since spring training and a second-place team with a decent buffer in the wild card. Both the Phillies and the Braves have improved in the last week by acquiring former Astros, Pence for Philadelphia and speedy outfielder Michael Bourn for Atlanta. One would have to favor both clubs to make the postseason, meaning that any intrigue in the division race would concern home-field and the right to play the weakest division champion in the Division Series.

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers (lead NL Central)
Games remaining: 53
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .483
Games against teams over .500: 29
Record against remaining teams: 38-23 (.623)

St. Louis Cardinals (trail MIL by 1.5 games, trail ATL by 5.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .500
Games against teams over .500: 32
Record against remaining teams: 39-28 (.582)

Pittsburgh Pirates (trail MIL by 3.5 games, trail ATL by 7.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 56
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .478
Games against teams over .500: 26
Record against remaining teams: 31-25 (.554)

Cincinnati Reds (trail MIL by 6.5 games, trail ATL by 10.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .466
Games against teams over .500: 19
Record against remaining teams: 33-32 (.508)

The NL Central is likely to be the best race in baseball in the final two months. Three teams are separated by less than four games, and four have no more than seven contests between them. The Pirates, the unquestionable feel-good story of the 2011 season, are in the mix after 19 straight losing seasons, adding to the battle's significance. The race is likely to ebb and flow constantly, as the Brewers, Cardinals, and Pirates all play each other at least 10 times in August and September. Even though the top three are favored, fourth-place Cincinnati cannot be ruled either, especially as the Reds have a great opportunity to make up ground in the next four weeks. A three-game set against Pittsburgh from August 19-21 is the only time the Reds will play a team above .500 until August 29.

NL West

San Francisco Giants (lead NL West)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .475
Games against teams over .500: 20
Record against remaining teams: 34-26 (.567)

Arizona Diamondbacks (trail SF by 3 games, trail ATL by 4.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .486
Games against teams over .500: 21
Record against remaining teams: 31-23 (.574)

Given the deserved amount of attention the Giants have received this year as defending champions, it has constantly surprised me this season to look at the standings and see that the Diamondbacks are within touch. If San Francisco has a couple of bad weeks during the rest of the season, it's easy to see where the Diamondbacks could take advantage. Arizona will need better pitching to push the Giants all the way, however, as the D-Backs have only the 12th best geam ERA in the National League. There is no decided schedule advantage to be had for either team, and each has played well against upcoming opposition. San Francisco and Arizona play nine more times, including a three-game series early this week.

Through the first two-thirds of the season, the divisions in baseball have been remarkably tight. Four of the six divisions feature two game leads or less, while the other two are separated by no more than five games. If that pattern holds up throughout August and September, the pennant races and the final days of the season should be nothing short of exhilarating.