NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Better late than never: Ron Santo was finally chosen for the Baseball Hall of Fame.

* This is a stunning statistic: the Bills sacked John Beck nine times in Week 8. In Buffalo's other 11 games combined, the team has only eight sacks.

* Donald Driver scored 2 receiving touchdowns this weekend, making him the fifth-oldest player with multiple receiving TDs in a game, joining Jerry Rice, Charlie Joiner, Terrell Owens, and Derrick Mason.

* Trend I appreciate: running backs handing the ball to an offensive lineman to spike after rushing touchdowns.

* NFL Network: stop missing plays. Seriously.

***

In a way, I suppose it's natural for former players tend to glorify their own accomplishments. Ron Jaworksi, of course, for many years held the record for consecutive games started by a quarterback. That distinction has become much easier to maintain with all the new rules protecting passers, but here's what Jaws had to say about the streak on Monday night:

"I'll speak for myself, any of those quarterbacks, how important it is to line up every single game with your teammates. You feel that it's so important that you play through injuries, you wanna be there for your teammates, they're counting if you have consistency in the offense."

I don't question that all of that is true. Any competitor wants to be out there playing, and anyone with a heart feels responsibility to his team. But at the end of the day, is this kind of thing really significant? I'll take a great player who missed a couple games over a journeyman who plays hurt. Last season, Aaron Rodgers (who missed 1½ games) and Ben Roethlisberger (who missed 4) met in Super Bowl XLV. How important is a consecutive game streak, really? Playing every week is better than not, but a missed game is just a missed game.

On to this week's power rankings — brackets show last week's rank.

1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Here's why I'm not a defensive coordinator. On the first touchdown of the game, a 67-yard pass to Travis Beckum, Clay Matthews dropped into coverage instead of rushing, and Eli Manning had forever to throw, under absolutely no pressure. So I'm sitting there thinking how ridiculous it is to waste a weapon like Matthews in coverage. On the first play of the second quarter, Matthews intercepted a pass and returned it for a touchdown. The Packers have clinched the NFC North.

2. New England Patriots [2] — The rivalry with Indianapolis doesn't feel like a rivalry at all with Peyton Manning on the sidelines. Rob Gronkowski set or tied some sort of record this weekend, but for me, it got lost in the shuffle of all the random stats I've heard on television this year. Most TD passes by a Detroit Lions quarterback in his first 25 games. Most receptions in a single season by a New Orleans Saint tight end. Best passer rating for a Minnesota Viking punter. Come on, quit that.

These are the same people who want you to believe that there's something meaningful about a baseball player's batting average on Tuesdays, against left-handed middle relievers, following a rain delay, when he's batting sixth, in June. The really specific football stats are about equally useful — most of these simply are not meaningful records. Let's stick to the pretty big ones, okay?

3. New Orleans Saints [4] — I know NFL defensive coaches see what I see, so I don't understand why defenses cover Jimmy Graham like a tight end. Put your best cornerback on him! Graham is a big, strong guy (6-6, 260), tough for a corner to bring down, but linebackers and safeties can't cover him one-on-one. If you compare him to tight ends, Graham is a phenomenon. But I think he's much more like a big wide receiver, and viewed that way, he's still a standout, but not a blossoming legend. I guess I have limited appreciation for a guy who's only on the field for about two-thirds of the offensive snaps. The Saints really tip their hand on run plays, because Graham almost always subs out.

4. Baltimore Ravens [5] — I've complained about a thousand times that they should use Ray Rice more often, but this wasn't what I had in mind. When you're winning 24-3 with 4:00 left, and your 5'8" RB has carried the ball 27 times, give him a rest. I know everybody wanted Rice to get 200 yards, but it's not worth the injury risk at that point. This team has Super Bowl aspirations, and if Rice gets overworked and injured, that dream is over.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers [3] — Beatdown of a divisional rival included a 28-0 second quarter, and served notice that the Steelers and Ravens are still the class of the AFC North. It wasn't a dominant showing for the Pittsburgh offense (295 yards, 2/10 third down conversions), but special teams, penalties, and a healthy defense turned the game into a blowout. James Harrison sacked Andy Dalton three times.

6. San Francisco 49ers [7] — Clinched the NFC West, and Frank Gore became the team's all-time rushing leader, surpassing Hall of Famer Joe Perry. I have a lot of respect for Gore. He probably should be regarded as one of the 50 best RBs in history at this point. But records like this don't do justice to someone like Perry, who played 12-game seasons most of his career and dominated the league in a way that Gore simply never has.

Considering only their careers with San Francisco, the top 10 RBs in 49er history: Perry, Hugh McElhenny, Roger Craig, Gore, Ken Willard, J.D. Smith, Garrison Hearst, Johnny Strzykalski, Ricky Watters, Delvin Williams.

7. Houston Texans [9] — Won their sixth in a row, and can clinch the AFC South next week with a win and a Titans loss. T.J. Yates didn't light the world on fire, while Arian Foster and Ben Tate combined for 3.6 yards per carry, and Andre Johnson suffered another hamstring injury. But they converted when they had to, and the defense came up big again. Connor Barwin, who had four hits on Matt Ryan and two pass deflections, is quickly becoming an elite player. He deserves serious Pro Bowl consideration. If Yates were Matt Schaub, the Texans would probably rank second this week. Opponents are completing just 49.8% of their passes against Houston.

8. Atlanta Falcons [6] — Rough outing for Matt Ryan, who didn't take any sacks, but got hit 10 times and threw a pair of interceptions. The Falcons lost two of their first three games. Since then, they're 6-3, with the losses to 12-0 Green Bay, 9-3 New Orleans, and 9-3 Houston. This is a pretty good team, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't qualify for a wild card in the NFC playoffs.

9. Denver Broncos [10] — Only a Bronco fan (or a Florida Gator) could be impressed by their last-minute win over the Vikings, who are 2-10, just lost their fourth straight, and were missing their best player (Adrian Peterson). Minnesota outgained the Broncos by 150 yards, picked up twice as many first downs, won time of possession by more than 15 minutes, scored a safety, and connected on two TD passes of over 40 yards. But Denver has now won five in a row, four of them on the road. John Fox's coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for the job it's done this year. When life gives you Tim Tebow lemons, make dramatic adaptations on offense lemonade. I actually think we've all been too hard on Tebow's passing. Those fourth-quarter comebacks are when he's throwing the ball, and that's when Denver's offense has been most successful.

10. Dallas Cowboys [8] — Since the bye, Dallas is 5-3. In all five wins, DeMarco Murray was the leading rusher, on either team, averaging 139 yards per game. In the losses, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, LeSean McCoy, and Beanie Wells, respectively, have out-rushed Murray (49 yards per game in the losses). Against Arizona, Murray rushed for 38 yards with a 3.2 average. I haven't been impressed with Jason Garrett since 2007, but Sunday's end-of-regulation performance was weak even for him. With :27 and two timeouts, you don't ask your kicker to try a 49-yard field goal. Forget the poorly-executed timeout, why aren't you trying to get closer?

11. Tennessee Titans [16] — With Chris Johnson rounding back into form, how dangerous is this team? Johnson's average per carry is up to 4.1. Matt Hasselbeck's slump has coincided with Johnson's good showing, but if those two can click simultaneously, the Titans could steal a tough game, finish 10-6, and qualify for the playoffs. Hasselbeck has passed for under 200 yards three weeks in a row, with a passer rating under 80 for four weeks in a row. Fantasy owners, this man is not to be trusted.

Hasselbeck, first five weeks: 283 yds/gm, 95.9 rating
Hasselbeck since the bye: 178 yds/gm, 71.9 rating

Then again, I said the same thing about Chris Johnson a month ago.

12. New York Jets [15] — Two unimpressive wins in a row. The scoreboard shows a comfortable 34-19 victory, but the Jets were losing with 5:00 left. All of the remaining games on the schedule look winnable, so the Jets have to like their chances of securing a playoff spot, but they'd better root against the Broncos and Raiders, both of whom hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the Jets. I saw an interview on Sunday in which Santonio Holmes described himself and Plaxico Burress as "superstars." This season, Holmes ranks 58th in receptions, 46th in receiving yards, and tied for 16th in touchdown catches. He has no plays of 40 yards or more. Dude has never even been to a Pro Bowl. He was drafted in the 13th round of my fantasy league. Someone needs a reality check.

13. Cincinnati Bengals [12] — Lost three of their last four, all inside the division, after a 6-2 start. They're 1-5 against teams that currently have winning records, beating Tennessee in Week 9. There's something to be said for the winning the games you're supposed to, but even if Cincinnati sneaks into the playoffs, this isn't an elite team yet. Let's see where they are in two or three years.

14. Detroit Lions [14] — Both the Giants and Lions have played against Green Bay and New Orleans in the last two weeks. That'll put a dent in your playoff hopes. Unless everyone else on the periphery of the NFC playoff hunt loses, too, as happened this weekend. All the 7-4 teams lost (Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit), the only 6-5 team lost (Giants), and no one was 5-6. Going into the Week 9 bye, Calvin Johnson was averaging 100.5 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game. In the four games since, 72 yards and 0.25 TDs. The Lions need to make defenses pay for double-teaming Megatron. And other than a healthy Kevin Smith, so far it seems like that's not happening.

15. Chicago Bears [11] — Lost an ugly game that saw Kansas City's Tyler Palko out-duel Caleb Hanie to win the battle of backup quarterbacks. Hanie has 2 TDs, 6 INTs, a 40.8 passer rating, and an 0-2 record as a starter for a team that was 7-3 with him on the bench. To make matters worse, Matt Forte suffered an MCL injury on Sunday and will miss at least two weeks, maybe the rest of the season. This ranking is probably too high.

16. Arizona Cardinals [20] — Won four of their last five. Yes, seriously. And here are the last three teams they've lost to: 9-3 Steelers, 9-3 Ravens, 10-2 49ers. They put a scare into the Ravens, even. If Week 4 referee Jerome Boger knew the rules, the Cardinals would have beaten the Giants, and they'd be legitimate playoff contenders at 6-6. Against Dallas, LaRod Stephens-Howling scored his second receiving TD of over 50 yards this season. Stephens-Howling has eight catches.

17. Miami Dolphins [18] — Another team that started slowly, but has won four of its last five — including three by 20 points or more. Matt Moore is playing at a high level, and the defense has rebounded in a big way from its Week 1 embarrassment against the Patriots. Only the 49ers, Texans, Ravens, and Steelers have allowed fewer points this season than Miami.

18. New York Giants [17] — In the last month, they've played the Packers, 49ers, Saints, and Patriots. Wow. They've lost four in a row (against three great teams, and the Eagles) and they rank 29th in yards allowed. Eli Manning is having a career year, and Victor Cruz continues to impress, but the Giants can't keep losing shootouts. They've been more successful with a ball control, running-and-defense model. I guess that's tough when your defense is playing like this.

19. Seattle Seahawks [24] — Three wins in their last four, including an upset of the Ravens and pretty easy victories over the Rams and Eagles. A week ago, television networks were still listing the 4-7 Eagles and Seahawks among their "in the hunt" teams. Even though all the 7-4 and 6-5 teams lost on Sunday, I didn't see anyone list the 5-7 Seahawks this week. Media politics.

20. Oakland Raiders [13] — Dropped seven places this week because (1) they got routed by Miami, and (2) last week's win over the Bears looks a lot less impressive this week. The Raiders scored a pair of garbage time touchdowns when they were already down 34-0, but the offense just got stifled this week. We've been hearing rumors for weeks now of Darren McFadden's return, and hopefully that's coming very soon now.

21. San Diego Chargers [26] — Games like Monday night's are why fans see San Diego as such a frustrating, disappointing team. At their best, the Chargers can hang with anyone. They looked good in close losses to the Patriots and Packers, and they ran all over Jacksonville this week. So where was that team for the last month? Where was it for close losses to average teams like the Jets and Chiefs and Raiders and Broncos? Playing up to their potential, the Chargers could wreck most of those opponents.

Maybe I'm being too harsh. The Chargers had several significant players return from injury, and that surely made a difference. Throwing to Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and Malcom Floyd, Philip Rivers looked much more comfortable than in recent weeks. But we know the Chargers can play with a lead. What I'd really like to see them do is handle adversity.

22. Philadelphia Eagles [19] — Don't believe what NFL Network says about this team. On the pre-game show, Michael Irvin claimed that the Eagles were "in the top 10 in every major offensive category." However, they were 14th in points, which I thought was a major category. They were 11th in passing yards, which seems pretty major. They ranked 11th in offensive touchdowns. They were also outside the top 10 in several other categories I think of as major, but which you probably could argue are not. Still, what Irvin said was clearly false.

Later, Brad Nessler mentioned that "only Bud Grant and Jeff Fisher have won more games without winning a championship" than Andy Reid. I bet you can almost immediately think of at least one other coach with more wins and no rings. Here are all the head coaches with more regular-season wins than Reid, and no championship: Marty Schottenheimer, Dan Reeves, Chuck Knox, Bud Grant, Marv Levy, Jeff Fisher, and Jim Mora, Sr. That's seven coaches, not two. I'm sure Nessler wasn't intentionally lying (though it's mind-boggling that he didn't think of Schottenheimer, at least), but who on earth gave him that stat? I actually wondered if Nessler meant post-season games, but that's not true, either. That list is Reeves, Levy, and Grant (and not Fisher).

Fact-checking is a basic tenet of journalism, maybe the most basic. Errors should be rare and promptly corrected. I don't think I'm being unreasonable here. If you give your audience a statistic, we should be able to trust that it is true. Right now, NFL Network fails that test. (My favorite NFL Network falsehood is still Sterling Sharpe speaking about Andre Johnson last year. The "Marty Schottenheimer didn't exist" stat on Thursday would probably be second.)

23. Buffalo Bills [22] — Fifth straight loss. This doesn't even seem like the same team that started 3-0 and beat the Patriots. Most notably, the Bills aren't scoring the way they did early in the season. Through Week 6, Buffalo averaged 31.3 points per game, topping 30 four times and never scoring less than 20. In the six games since their bye, the Bills have averaged 15.0 ppg and haven't scored more than 24 in any contest. It's tough to keep winning when your scoring average gets sliced in half. C.J. Spiller gained 80 of his 83 rushing yards against Tennessee in the first half.

24. Carolina Panthers [29] — Went 2-1 on their three-game road trip, breaking a streak of 12 consecutive road losses dating to the 2009 season. The last time a quarterback led the NFL in rushing touchdowns was 1950 (Johnny Lujack), though Daryle Lamonica did tie for the AFL lead in 1964. Right now, Cam Newton leads the league, with 13 rushing scores.

Following his third TD, Newton handed the ball to a 16-year-old Panthers fan, Katie Brown. That's great, one of those gestures where a pro athlete can do something simple that's incredibly meaningful to fans. Except that the Panthers reclaimed the ball so they could send it to the Hall of Fame. Look, no one appreciates the history of the NFL more than I do. But you can't go into the stands and ask a kid to return the ball a player just gave her. It's just a ball. Most single-season rushing QBs by a quarterback isn't a terribly significant record, anyway, but even it were, the fans are the ones who make this league possible, and it is appalling that anyone thought it was okay to ask Katie to return Newton's gift to her. What incredibly misplaced priorities. That's not just tone-deaf, it's sickening.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [21] — Couldn't run at all in Week 13, with backup QB Josh Johnson leading the team (45 yards), and couldn't stop Cam Newton. Lost in their ugly defeat was the fine day from kicker Connor Barth, who made four field goals of at least 44 yards, with no misses. Rookie Da'Quan Bowers had a career day, as well, with 5 tackles for a loss.

26. Kansas City Chiefs [30] — Won on a freak play, a Hail Mary that Brian Urlacher deflected straight into the hands of Dexter McCluster. But credit the defense, which held the Bears to 181 yards and 0/11 on third-down conversions. Chicago QB Caleb Hanie finished with 7 sacks, 3 interceptions, and a 23.8 passer rating. Justin Houston, who had no sacks in the first 12 weeks, got three against the Bears. Tamba Hali finally accounts for less than half of the team's total sacks this season (8/20).

27. Washington Redskins [23] — The team has looked okay the last two weeks, but now loses two of its best offensive players, left tackle Trent Williams and tight end Fred Davis, to four-game suspensions related to positive tests for marijuana. The Jets' go-ahead score in the fourth quarter was set up by Graham Gano's second short kickoff, fielded at the 20 and returned to midfield. I don't understand why NFL coaches try to avoid kickoff returners. Pick any kickoff returner from the last 30 years, the best guy you can think of. Got one? Guess what percentage of his kickoffs went back for touchdowns. Here's a sampling:

Devin Hester: 3.6%
Leon Washington: 3.4%
Josh Cribbs: 2.4%
Deion Sanders: 1.9%
Mel Gray: 1.4%
Dante Hall: 1.4%
Eric Metcalf: 0.7%
Brian Mitchell: 0.7%

Let's say Joe McKnight returns 3% of kickoffs for touchdowns. When the Jets start at the 50-yard line, what percentage of the time do you think they score? Is it higher than three? Most of those percentages above were compiled when teams had to kick off from their own 30-yard line, even. You kick off from the 35 now, just boot it deep and get a touchback! This team can't stay out of its own way. Seriously, you have to be stupid to kick away from the returner on kickoffs. Punts are different.

28. Minnesota Vikings [28] — Only the Colts have allowed more points this season than Minnesota (330). The Vikings have only held one opponent — the Cardinals in Week 5 — below 20 points. Nice job, though, by Chris Kluwe, Eric Frampton, and Jamarca Sanford to pin the Broncos at their own 1-yard line, setting up Jared Allen's safety in the first quarter. Don't get too caught up in the stats: Christian Ponder passed for 381 yards on Sunday, but he also committed three turnovers. Percy Harvin, with no receiving touchdowns in the first nine games, has scored 4 TDs in the last three weeks.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars [25] — I don't mean to beat up on Blaine Gabbert. He's 9 years old, and maybe he has a bright future in the NFL. Right now, he shouldn't be playing. His coaches don't seem to trust him, and it's not apparent that really trusts himself. With 5:36 left in the game, ESPN flashed a graphic showing that 153 of Jacksonville's 188 passing yards had come after the catch. Either let the kid throw downfield or replace him with someone who can.

30. Cleveland Browns [27] — Rank 28th in offensive yardage. The Browns have ranked 27th or worse in total offense every year since 2008, and eight of the last nine if they keep this up for another four weeks.

31. St. Louis Rams [31] — Third shutout loss in the last three seasons, also their second recent shutout loss to the Niners. The Rams were on the wrong side of a 35-0 San Francisco win in Week 4 of 2009. You know what's amazing? This team has a pretty good running back.

32. Indianapolis Colts [32] — Orlovsky threw for 280 of his 353 yards in the second half, when the game was already out of reach. I think this season is a subtle plot to drive Reggie Wayne mad. First Peyton Manning goes down, and every time a new QB comes in, the new guy decides Pierre Garçon is his favorite target. Last week, Wayne finally had a big game connecting with Curtis Painter, and this week Painter got benched. The Colts' remaining opponents are a combined 28-20. I think they have a real shot at 0-16.

Comments and Conversation

December 8, 2011

Larry:

With all due respect, Jaws played in a different era of football. At one point, players obeyed coaches and did not go over the coach’s head to owners. Quarterbacks were offensive captains. There may have been other personalities on the field, other great offensive players lining up on third down but most quarterbacks were leaders of these other stars. This was not because the quarterbacks were the best player, but just because the QB position is the head of the organism. Staubach is a good example, surrounded by talent, some better than him, but he was the field marshal leading the offense. Now days we have a bunch of whiny cry baby celebrities and no chain of command. It was important for Jaws to play every game, every down.

You’ve done a lot of research related to coaching trees and seem to have a great grasp history and ‘stats in context’ perhaps you’ll agree with me that in this day in age it’s no longer a important stat, but at one time, maybe…

Thanks

December 9, 2011

Brad Oremland:

Thanks for the comment, Larry. I certainly agree that the quarterback’s role as play-caller and field general once made his role more central than it is today. But I still think Jaws was wrong, for several reasons:

1) That era was basically over by the time Jaws was a consistent starter. Staubach was a bit of a throwback, but that’s an era of coaches calling the plays.

2) Throughout history, backups have stepped in for the most celebrated field generals and been successful. Tobin Rote for Bobby Layne. Sonny Jurgensen for Norm Van Brocklin. Earl Morrall for Unitas and Griese. Clint Longley. Randall Cunningham stepped in nicely for Jaws.

I believe this aspect of the position has ALWAYS been overstated. Losing your starting QB is catastrophic because you’re losing your best player at the most important position. If you have a Morrall or Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers ready to fill the gap, it’s not a big deal. It’s much more about talent than continuity and leadership.

3) Even if you’re right that Jaworski’s comments would have been accurate when he played, that was a quarter-century ago. Jaws gets paid to comment on football in 2011. I mean, he was talking about Philip Rivers, not Sid Luckman.

I’m very skeptical that consecutive games was ever as important as we’ve been led to believe, but I’m very confident that it’s not a meaningful stat today.

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