The Month-Long Journey

Well, college football fans, we've made it. We've foraged through the lion's share of the maze. Our reward ... the month of November. Now, the games get serious ... serious enough for the Playoff Selection Committee to finally have a say. They deliver their first poll of the season (and, well, their first poll ever) this week. We, as fans, must remember that this isn't the last word on which schools will throw a four-team bracket bonanza. But of course everybody has their say on who'll go where and which conference might get shut out.

As you know, I'm no different. I'm looking at all the trends my eyes can stomach, and I've come up with my own list of questions that I'm looking forward to getting answers to as the month of November rolls along. So, why not start near the top?

1) Can any Pac-12 other than Oregon make the playoff?

In the North, no, plain and simple. Stanford was the only other program that had a chance back around Labor Day, and this is becoming a substandard Cardinal season. The South Division is quite interesting, though. After Saturday's results, there are three teams left with a single loss. Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah will face each other over the next five weeks (including Utah at ASU this Saturday).

If you look ahead and ask, "Who can improve their resume the most?", you might say Utah. The Utes are hitting the midway point of a strong seven-game stretch. They're 3-0 already, with wins over UCLA, Oregon State, and USC.

If you look back and ask, "Who has the most forgivable loss?", you might say Arizona, who couldn't kick themselves to a win over the Trojans after a missed field goal with 0:17 left in regulation.

But if you take the overall picture and ask, "Who has the best chance to make the Playoff?", you probably would take Arizona State. Although the Sun Devils avoid Oregon, they will have (by far) the most impressive non-conference game on the schedule (against Notre Dame on Nov. 8th). The fact that it's an out-of-league contest played this late in the season might provide more of a boost with the selection committee's rankings already in effect at that point.

2) Is a Big 12 title enough clout for Kansas State to get a bracket spot?

If it's an undefeated run, I think it will be. Under Bill Snyder, the Wildcats will never be the sexy pick of the Big XII litter. That's not their style. However, the way the conference has shaken out over the first two months, all the team's biggest league "toughies" are away from Manhattan. They've already won in Norman. After hosting Oklahoma State this week, K-State gets the other three contenders on the road (TCU, West Virginia, Baylor).

A 9-0 record after getting past that kind of road trip could be enough to earn some respect amongst the panel. The Wildcats can add in a tough, close loss to Auburn (who still has to maneuver itself through the SEC West) as a cherry to show they can play with more than just the Big 12 elite. I think the margin for error is slim, though. One loss, and Baylor or TCU jump ahead of them in the pecking order (probably for good).

3) Will Ohio State or Michigan State win out?

Obviously, they can't both run the rest of the table since they play one another on Nov. 8th (that's shaping up to be a pretty good day). It's a pretty safe assumption that the winner of said game will be the favorite to win the conference title. But is there anyone else on the schedule that could provide problems?

The Spartans play the two Big Ten newbies (Maryland and Rutgers) before finishing the regular season at Penn State. As OSU was just reminded, Happy Valley can make visitors depart a little blue (while seeing a lot of blue on the way out). The Buckeyes have home dates with Illinois, Indiana, and a flailing Michigan squad. Could a trip to Minneapolis provide the stage for a "letdown" game?

These are the two best teams the conference has right now, meaning they're the last hopes to fill a line in the bracket ... and one will eliminate the other. Simply put, I think the winner of the showdown claims the Big Ten title and a spot in the playoff. Pretty big stakes for a game in early November.

4) Can an undefeated Marshall make a "Selection Committee" bowl?

Let's break down the possibilities. Only one Big Ten team can finish the season with one loss. Only one Big XII team can finish the season with one loss. Only one Pac-12 team can finish with one loss. The SEC West will continue to devour each other (and probably have a winner with one loss). If Florida State wins out, they'll be the only ACC team with less than two losses.

After all of that, remember that the semifinals will probably take more than one of the above options away. Once those four spots are swallowed up, there are still eight more to fill. Now, despite the Thundering Herd's unblemished record, East Carolina is still ahead of them in (basically) everybody's minds. But, even with its weak schedule, could I see this Conference USA representative getting selected over Georgia, Arizona, Nebraska, TCU, Duke, or in-state competitor West Virginia? Yes. If Jordan Lynch can guide an undefeated MAC champ to a BCS bowl, I think Rakeem Cato can do the same with an undefeated C-USA champ.

5) Which game will be bigger: Iron Bowl or Egg Bowl?

Come on. Who really thought this would be a question with actual merit when the season started? Better question ... has anyone given this idea much thought in the last 20 years? I know I haven't been on the block that long. Ever since I've followed college football, though, it always seems like the Alabama-based rivalry game trumps the Mississippi-based game every year. Even when 'Bama and Auburn had coinciding down years, their matchup was much more heralded.

This season, the vertical path to ascend to the SEC Championship follows the near linear path between Oxford and Auburn (with Starkville and Tuscaloosa in the middle). Until this past Saturday, the Mississippi schools were on a collision course the state had never seen. With Ole Miss' loss in Baton Rouge, the sizzle for the Egg has hushed a bit. But that could change in the next three Saturdays. The Rebels host the Tigers from the Plains this week (Nov. 1st). The Tide welcomes the Bulldogs in on Nov. 15th. If one state sweeps the other, we'll know which rivalry stands alone for this 2014 SEC season.

We enter the month of November, when, in the world of college football, hearts are broken and dreams are dashed. For those with hope, it's a long time coming ... and a long ways yet to go.