It's the end of the NBA's regular season. In less than a week's time, the focus will shift to the sixteen teams still alive to claim the Larry O'Brien Trophy. But I'm here to observe the fortunes of the more "downtrodden." There are 14 squads that will get some extra rest, while their front offices prepare to see where their ping pong balls land in the Draft Lottery.
Thirteen have officially been eliminated going into Monday, with Houston and Utah battling it out for the final spot in the West. Of those organizations with teams that will be cleaning out their lockers as late as Thursday, some appear to have a semblance of certainty from the top down, while others have their futures up in the air.
Stable and Rebuilding
This is the first year in Denver for head coach Mike Malone. He didn't get a long leash in Sacramento, so this may be the first opportunity he has to really implement his strategy for building a team. The Nuggets will have a slightly better record than last year (by three games, at worst), and that's a start. But it may take a couple of years to return this team to the consistent status where George Karl had it.
It's funny how life goes around in circles sometimes. The power structure that Malone struggled with (and was ultimately disconnected from) is the same one that Karl contends with today. Sacramento is still looking to piece things together and return to the postseason for the first time since 2006. Karl has been through one hell of a whirlwind since joining the organization with 30 games to go last season (a season that started with Malone at the helm). Despite the massively reported butting of heads between Karl and star center DeMarcus Cousins (not to mention adding Rajon Rondo to that powder keg), it looks like the Kings will stay the course for at least one more go-'round.
Like Malone, Scott Skiles is just completing his first year in a new gig. Unlike Malone, Skiles has had plenty of chances to work things out on the bench. Orlando was where the former point guard spent the majority of his playing career. Now, Skiles gets to show Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, and the rest of the squad how to grow into a contending factor. That's something he did in Chicago. I know that Skiles has been one to wear out his welcome, but that's usually about three seasons in. The Magic should be good for now.
Then, there's the Lakers. With this franchise hitting it's all-time "rock bottom" point, the prevailing wisdom would have Byron Scott out on his ear. However, is the front office more at fault? They were the ones that gave Kobe Bryant that gigantic two-year contract as a reward for his service to the franchise. Is bad fortune more at fault? It could be blamed for Julius Randle missing a full year's amount of seasoning after breaking his leg in his professional debut. Could maturity be at the heart of the fault? That had to be behind rookie guard D'Angelo Russell causing a rift in the locker room after throwing Nick Young's "business" out on the Internet. With Bryant's contract coming off of the books, and another high draft pick a distinct possibility, I'm siding with Scott staying on the bench for another season ... or the start of one, at least.
Stable ... Even Through Disappointment
At this time a year ago, Washington and Milwaukee were playoff-bound squads. The Wizards relied on the dynamic backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Bucks surprised everyone thanks to their outstanding length, especially in the frontcourt. Both teams will miss the postseason in 2016. Some of it might be explained by injury (Beal has missed some time at various points of the season). Some of it might be explained by a lack of consistency (the Bucks' defensive rating dropped from 4th-best to 5th-worst). However, it doesn't appear that anyone in those front offices, including head coaches Randy Whitman and Jason Kidd, are going anywhere.
In New Orleans, everything is centered around their all-star center. For some, Anthony Davis is the future of the game, with guard skills and rim-protector height. Were too many expectations heaped on the 23-year old, though? There are some pieces surrounding Davis, but he was the overwhelming reason that the Pelicans were supposed to improve on last season's eighth-place finish in the conference. New coach Alvin Gentry was supposed to be an upgrade over Monty Williams, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The numbers aren't reflecting that so far (a fall from eighth to 20th in league offensive rating). And Davis' ascension stalled a touch this year before being shut down for season-ending surgeries a couple of weeks back. This team will need some time to gel. And a couple extra pieces wouldn't hurt, either.
The Bulls wouldn't switch things up so soon ... would they? An offseason after parting ways with coach Tom Thibodeau, the brass in Chicago couldn't make another change on the bench after an underwhelming campaign ... could they? Fred Hoiberg's first year as an Association coach won't be remembered fondly by Bulls fans. The team is missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008 (only the second time since 2005). There were rumors of complacency during stretches of the season Star guard Jimmy Butler appeared to have called out Hoiberg's coaching style right before Christmas Day, just twenty-five games into the season. But there were injuries too. Joakim Noah has been out since mid-January. Derrick Rose is still a question mark when it comes to his overall health. So, they've got to give Hoiberg another go at it, right?
We're Standing on Shaky Ground
The candidates for this category are all undergoing some kind of drastic change. The NYC boroughs don't have any permanent leadership, as far as pro hoops in concerned. The Knicks and Nets will be figuring out if interims Kurt Rambis and Tony Brown have given enough reason for their respective teams to keep them around. My money's on "no." The same goes for Phoenix, where Earl Watson couldn't save the dumpster fire that flared up under Jeff Hornacek. The signs may have started to show late last season, with a 48-win squad in 2013-2014 only rebounding to win 39 games the next campaign. Hornacek got the ax after things went south ... quickly (in his last 24 games, the team was 3-21). Watson hasn't done much better (an 8-23 record). May just be time to start from scratch.
The other two situations are a bit trickier to analyze. The 76ers are now under new middle management. "The Process" appears to be over after GM Sam Hinkie resigned this past week. For as storied of a franchise as it is, the Sixers have seen their share of rough times. The 1972-1973 squad is famously known, by record, as the worst team in NBA history. This team is rivaling that mark. The difference now? It has been about this bad for three seasons straight. In the first 64 seasons of the franchise (that began as the Syracuse Nationals), there was no stint where their squads won less than 20 games in back-to-back years. It has happened the last three.
So, with another high draft pick in the works and Bryan Colangelo as the new man about town, where does that leave coach Brett Brown? Where does that leave the highly-coveted picks acquired by Hinkie? Where does that leave the young pros that appear to be more potential than results-driven? The next couple of months could be interesting.
When talking about the Timberwolves, the roster is much more set. They'll have their second-straight Rookie of the Year winner in Karl-Anthony Towns. Last year's winner, Andrew Wiggins, continues his growth, along with Zach LaVine, Gorgui Dieng, and Shabazz Muhammed. But the man that was supposed to oversee that growth isn't here to relish in the early returns. When Flip Saunders passed away days before the start of the season, the organization found themselves in an unenviable position. There hasn't really been any time to process the impact Saunders' death will have on the franchise. With the season coming to a close, there'll be nothing but time. Owner Glen Taylor will have to make some decisions, especially when it comes to interim coach Sam Mitchell and GM Milt Newton.
Living in the Twin Cities, I've heard arguments for both keeping and jettisoning these two. No matter the decision, some faction won't be happy. This late-season winning surge (road sweep at Golden State, Sacramento, and Portland) will speak in Mitchell's favor. But there are some "sexy" candidates in the wings, ready for another, or simply a, chance to make their mark.
When a team misses the postseason, change is pretty much inevitable. However, it's always better to make it with solid footing in place.
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