1. Why 91.6% of teams who won the coin toss to start the game in 2020, 2021, and 2022 deferred...
The Eagles won the toss in Sunday's Commanders game and deferred.
And this is what happened:
Down 17-7 with 1:39 remaining in the first half and the ball at their own 25-yard line following a touchback, the Eagles drove to the Washington 23 with four seconds left; the key play was a 37-yard completion from Jalen Hurts to Devonta Smith. The ensuing 41-yard field goal by Jake Elliott brought Philadelphia to within 17-10 at the half.
And sure enough, the Eagles took the kickoff to open the second half and added a second Elliott field goal, a 47-yarder.
(This is of course the idea behind deferring: it gives the deferring team a potential opportunity to have two consecutive possessions — the last possession in the first half, followed by the first possession in the second half — which can theoretically lead to 14 or even 16 unanswered points.)
By contrast, in 2008 (the first year in which deferring in the first half, with the understanding that doing so would guarantee that the team would receive the kickoff to start the second half, became an option), only 38 percent of teams deferred; by 2013, that number had increased to 65 percent.
2. An "8-point play" can turn around, even decide the outcome of, a game.
After Washington was forced to punt, the Eagles took the lead on a 74-yard drive, capped by a 59-yard touchdown pass from Hurts to A.J. Brown — and since Commanders defensive end Montez Sweat (no relation to Josh Sweat, who plays the same position for the Eagles — nor are either related to 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat's groom, Ed Sweat) was called for roughing the passer on the play, the ball was moved to the 1-yard line for the 2-point conversion attempt, which was successful, as Eagles running back Kenny Gainwell ran it in.
That turned a four-point Eagles deficit into a four-point lead — and when the game ultimately went into overtime, Sweat's penalty proved to be the difference between overtime and a one-point Commanders win.
3. Taunting is never a good idea.
After re-taking the lead by hauling in a 28-yard touchdown reception from Hurts with 1 minute and 43 seconds remaining, Brown took the ball and put into the lap of a seated Washington cornerback Emmanuel Forbes.
For this the Eagles incurred a 15-yard penalty for "taunting." But what if, instead, that 15-yard penalty was assessed on the extra point attempt, which would have made it the equivalent of a 50-yard field goal?
And remember that not every NFL team has a Jake Elliott or a Justin Tucker as a kicker. One taunting penalty that results in a missed extra point that costs a team a game, and you will never see another one of these childish displays again.
As it was, the taunting penalty led to the Commanders starting their ensuing possession at their own 36-yard line — "outstanding field position," Frank Gifford would have called it on Monday Night Football.
4. All the "prevent defense" ever prevents is success.
On Washington's final possession in regulation play, Sam Howell completed passes of 11, 15, 16, 8, 11, and 10 yards, the last a touchdown to Jahan Dotson to send the game into overtime as time expired.
Instead of going into that dreaded "prevent defense," what might have happened if Eagles defensive coordinator Sean Desai dialed up a blitz, resulting in a sack or even a turnover? And even if the Philadelphia secondary had gotten burned for a TD on the first play, Hurts and the offense would have had a minute and a half and two timeouts to set Elliott up for a field goal to win the game in regulation (as it turned out, Elliott won it with a 54-yarder in the overtime).
And not for nothing, but had "Riverboat Ron" Rivera decided to go for two and made it after Dotson's catch, the Commanders would have won the game right then and there.
5. The 49ers will be No. 1 in every power ranking in the universe this week.
With the Dolphins having been exposed as pretenders rather than contenders just one week after scoring 70 points against lowly Denver, only two teams remain undefeated — and of the two, the 49ers have outscored their opponents by 67 points while the Eagles have outscored theirs by a far more modest 28 points.
And if yardage stats are this thing of yours, San Fran's offense is second overall, third in rushing and ninth in passing, their defense fifth, third, and 16th, respectively, while Philadelphia ranks fifth in total offense, second in rushing (artificially inflated by Hurts' 134 rushing yards to Brock Purdy's 24) and 13th in passing, its defense 16th overall, second against the run but a porous 27th against the pass.
That's a pretty wide gap — wide enough to make the 49ers road favorites when they visit Lincoln Financial Field on December 3.
Unless the Eagles start playing better, as Bill Russell famously said, between now and then.
Leave a Comment