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Old 10-08-2015, 11:23 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 5 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 5-10. Season totals: 28-35, Pct. .444. Best Bets: 7-5, Pct. .583.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

HOUSTON
13 (P), Indianapolis 10 - If there is nothing wrong (physically) with Andrew Luck, then why did the Colts re-sign Josh Johnson two days after having cut him? And they're 0-5 against the spread dating back to January's "Deflategate Bowl," which they will get the chance to avenge next Sunday night. Hillary Clinton is more trustworthy than Indianapolis is right now, even with the Colts having won and covered in their last five against the Texans.


SUNDAY

New Orleans
42 (+5), PHILADELPHIA 12 - Who did they get this line from - Mark Watney, the character played by Matt Damon in the Martian movie? After being named NFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 4, Drew Brees is liable to make it two in a row facing the smallest, weakest, softest, least aggressive defense in the NFL - and a team he has personally beaten in five of six as a Saint. A most emphatic best bet.

ATLANTA 38, Washington 14 (+8) - Another lopsided win by a member of the suddenly on-fire NFC South: The Falcons have owned The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name recently, with four straight wins over them, and three covers - and the latter has owned only misery of late both on rugs (1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the line since 2013) and in domes (3-13 and 6-10 since 2009). Another best bet.

Jacksonville 16 (+3), TAMPA BAY 13 - Can't wait for this one: The team with the longest-active road losing streak, at eleven games, at the team with the longest-active home losing streak, also a tweaker's dozen games. But the Jags are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in the lifetime series, and Blake Bortles is less interception-prone than Jameis Winston, who most definitely is not tasting good like a quarterback should right now.

CINCINNATI 24, Seattle 17 (+3) - Who saw this coming: Seattle's offensive line allowing 18 sacks this season, second most in the league (Kansas City has given up 19)? And the last time the zebras gift-wrapped a Monday night victory for the Seahawks at home (vs. Green Bay in 2012), they lost, on the road, the week after.

BALTIMORE 27, Cleveland 10 (+6 1/2) - Johnny Manziel is in the news this week, but only because his grandfather's house burned down Wednesday morning - so look for the Browns to continue to go up in flames in Baltimore, where they've lost seven in a row and 13 of the last 14, covering in just four. Artificial turf has also been a problem for Cleveland, which is 3-13 straight up and 6-9-1 against the line since 2012 as a visitor on the carpet.

TENNESSEE 21 (+3), Buffalo 17 - The bloom didn't take long to fall off Tyrod Taylor's rose - and Buffalo's long-term grass woes, already documented in these lines two weeks ago, include the 0-for-4 collar the Bills have taken in Tennessee, and they have dropped five straight to the Titans all told. Marcus Mariota, getting three points against Taylor, at home? Why the hell not?

GREEN BAY 44, St. Louis 20 (+10) - It will be letdown city for the Rams in the wake of another huge upset win within the division (they lost by two touchdowns to lowly Washington after their opening-day shocker over Seattle) and they have lost their last four both ways to Green Bay by a combined 123-54.

KANSAS CITY 23, Chicago 16 (+10) - The Chiefs aren't 10 points better than Temple! Take the points.

DETROIT 24 (+3), Arizona 20 - Before writing the 0-4 Lions off as "lousy," they have been underdogs in all four of their games despite coming of an 11-5, playoff-making season. That's not easy to pull off - and the road team covering a spread in this series has been absolutely impossible to pull off for a long time, as in not once since 1998, spanning a staggering twelve games, of which it has also lost eleven straight up. And the Cardinals have struggled mightily on artificial turf for almost as long a time - 18-41 outright and 27-31-1 pointwise since 2002.

New England 21, DALLAS 16 (+7) - Here's an interesting stat: The Cowboys are 16-5 straight up in "fatigue games," which befall a team that is not coming off a bye while facing an opponent that is. The second best team in that situation by percentage, Pittsburgh, is 8-4; and despite having won the "Deflategate Bowl" 45-7, the revenge onus may very well fall on the Patriots for the Colts going "sbirro" on them, as they say in the Old Country - and therefore, potentially worth looking ahead to.

Denver 42, OAKLAND 7 (+5 1/2) - The Raiders got exposed big time last week and they have been outscored 260-109 during their current seven-game losing streak both ways versus the Broncos, who for their part have won 16 consecutive road games on natural grass, with a 15-1 spread record therein. This has all the makings of another one-sided affair at a square price.

N.Y. GIANTS 24, San Francisco 14 (+7) - It was kind of funny, if somewhat out of character for Clay Matthews, the way Matthews went all Lloyd Bentsen on Colin Kaepernick in their game last week. But the Giants have back-to-back NFC East games coming up so keep any action light; in fact, with an outright majority - eight out of 14 - of this week's games having (opening) lines of 3, 7 or 10, if you can find a book that offers the proposition that at least one game will end in a push against the spread, bet on the "yes," with this game quite possibly being the game (or one of them) that makes that bet a winning one.


MONDAY NIGHT

Pittsburgh
20 (+3 1/2), SAN DIEGO 17 - Le'Veon Bell is still quite startable for fantasy owners because defenses will respect Michael Vick enough not to do the eight-in-the-box thing. And teams having played on Thursday night the previous week are 5-1 both ways so far in 2015 (this applies to Baltimore this week as well), and the Steelers will have an extra day still as they go from Thursday night last week to Monday night this week. San Diego's cogs on offense are starting to show their age in a big way.


BEST BETS: NEW ORLEANS, ATLANTA, DENVER
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Last edited by Anthony; 10-09-2015 at 01:16 PM.
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