|09-18-2013, 07:02 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 3 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 7-7-2. Season totals: 14-15-3, Pct. .484. Best Bets: 2-3-1, Pct. .417.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.
Kansas City 27 (+3), PHILADELPHIA 14 - Not at all surprisingly, Andy Reid's Palm Sunday-like homecoming is getting all the ink here - but the real story line should be that any Pop Warner League quarterback could throw for 400 yards against an Eagles defense that is as soft and as weak as any defense the NFL has seen in at least 30 years - and they have to go to Peyton's place next week. That should be fun.
N.Y. Giants 34 (+1 1/2), CAROLINA 28 - Both teams are 0-2, and not a single team that has started 0-2 in any of the last four years has made the playoffs. Maybe if such teams had two more games to dig themselves out of that hole because the regular season were the same length as the CFL's has been, without any complaints from anyone, since 1986? And if the Panthers aren't strong supporters of making said change, then they should be, given their respective 2-13 straight-up and 3-11-1 spread records in September over those same four years.
NEW ENGLAND 17, Tampa Bay 6 (+7) - So, the oddsmakers wised up to New England's present offensive realities faster than I thought they would. But the Tampa Bay players are now in open revolt against Greg Schiano and Josh Freeman is demanding to be traded. Furthermore, the Patriots have won the last two meetings by an impossible-to-ignore 63 to 7, and they may get Rob Gronkowski back this week.
WASHINGTON 30, Detroit 13 (+1 1/2) - Their defense gives up 71 points and 1,023 yards in the first two games, and "fans" in Washington are clamoring for RG3 to be benched? But the Lions have never - repeat, never - won in the nation's capital, going a mind-boggling 0-20 there in franchise history; and since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 they're not only 0-15 in D.C. straight up, but also 2-13 against the spread, and have been outscored by a staggering 451-175 in those 15 visits.
CINCINNATI 24 (+3), Green Bay 20 - That was quite a show of force by the Bengals Monday night - and the Packers are 1-3 outright and 0-3-1 pointwise lifetime in the City of Satan, and this is their first time on artificial turf in 2013 after winning and covering just two of six on it in 2012.
BALTIMORE 37 (+1), Houston 31 - And Houston's carpet woes are both of much greater intensity and of much longer duration than Green Bay's - as in 6-27 straight up and 10-22-1 against the line going all the way back to 2004, and that latter figure includes 1-8-1 in the last ten. The Texans, who looked shaky to say the least in both of their first two games, are also 0-3 in Baltimore. Another road favorite goes down.
San Diego 34 (+3 1/2), TENNESSEE 17 - The Chargers face their favorite patsy here - a team they have beaten nine consecutive times, including 38-10 at home in September of last year. Best bet.
MINNESOTA 20, Cleveland 7 (+3 1/2) - There is no brand of football out there today that even comes close to being as ugly, and just plain unwatchable, as Cleveland Browns football; and while the Browns are 11-2 against the line indoors in their present incarnation, one of the two non-covers was a 12-point loss as a 4 1/2-point underdog at this very venue in 2005.
NEW ORLEANS 31, Arizona 16 (+9) - Last year's bounty-depleted performance is now but a distant memory for the Saints defense, and the home team in this one has won and covered in the last four. No reason to doubt but the steep price keeps it out of best bet consideration.
DALLAS 20, St. Louis 13 (+4) - As could be easily predicted, Steven Jackson's flight from St. Louis to Atlanta via free agency is proving to be a bad proposition for both teams, as Jackson has already sustained his first injury in his new surroundings, and the Rams are averaging 68 yards rushing per game in his absence. It looks like it's going to be a pretty solid week for home teams.
Atlanta 31 (+2 1/2), MIAMI 27 - Everyone knows that I'm not high on the Falcons this year. But should they be underdogs to the Dolphins? I think not.
N.Y. JETS 16, Buffalo 10 (+1) - Neither team's current starting quarterback was supposed to be starting this early in this, his rookie season. But the Jets are supposed to beat the Bills, been as they have done it in six of the last seven and eight of the last ten. Maybe Rex Ryan will survive after all - especially now that Ryan is no longer joined at the hip, or the butt, to Mark Sanchez.
SAN FRANCISCO 38, Indianapolis 17 (+10 1/2) - Don't let the seeming overlay based strictly on recent won-lost records scare you: In four road games at over-.500 teams in the Andrew Luck Era the Colts have been outscored by a combined 153-71 en route to going 0-4 both ways.
SEATTLE 37, Jacksonville 0 (+17) - The first "Tim Tebow rally" has already been held in Jacksonville - and the Jags will be in Denver in three weeks, where all kinds of records might fall.
PITTSBURGH 16 (+2 1/2), Chicago 13 - What is Idaho famous for? Potatoes and Nazis. What are the Steelers famous for - at least recently anyway? Injuries and turnovers (and take away the latter and they would have at least covered on Monday night and might have even won the game outright). But the Bears were mighty lucky to win either of their first two games (both at home), and the history favoring the home team in this series is nothing short of inconceivable: Dating back to 1941 - that's right, nineteen forty-one - the home team in Chi-Pit games is 16-2-1 straight up, with an average victory margin of 14.2 points - and that includes the two losses and the tie. And like Gronkowski, Big Ben's security blanket, tight end Heath Miller, could return this week.
DENVER 45, Oakland 20 (+14 1/2) - The way Peyton Manning is playing, the Broncos don't even need either a running game or a defense - and they actually got a bit of the former last week (93 yards and two TDs from Knowshon Moreno) and help is on the way in the latter area in the form of Von Miller's suspension lasting only four more games, with only the Week 5 game in Dallas appearing to be even remotely losable. They've won their last three over the Raiders by nearly 20 points per outing, and can't see this game going any different.
BEST BETS: WASHINGTON, BALTIMORE, SAN DIEGO
To the clutch, there is only one sort of plebian - and that is the choke artist.
Last edited by Anthony; 09-18-2013 at 07:40 AM.
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