|10-23-2013, 06:20 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 8 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 8-7. Season totals: 51-52-4, Pct. .495. Best Bets: 10-9-2, Pct. .524.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.
Carolina 20, TAMPA BAY 0 (+6) - What if I told you that the last seven home underdogs on Thursday night have not covered the spread? Well it's true - and Carolina's defense appears to be "true" too, and as such should have no trouble at all facing a Bucs offense that now can't run the ball with Doug Martin out indefinitely due to a shoulder injury, in addition to not being able to throw the ball because Greg Schiano couldn't get along with Josh Freeman.
San Francisco 41, Jacksonville 3 (+17) - First we send two bad teams to London, now we send one very good team and one extremely bad team over there. Is the NFL trying to cause an international incident? And Frank Gore is an international good thing in fantasy this week, as he gets to "gore" what is the NFL's worst run defense by 26 yards per game (the Jags are allowing 153 yards rushing per game; the next worst run defense - New England - is giving up 127).
NEW ENGLAND 27, Miami 13 (+7) - Do you really think that the Patriots are going to lose two in a row within the AFC East after having won their last 12 consecutive such games prior? They have also beaten the Dolphins six straight times, and right now Miami's offensive line couldn't block a driveway.
PHILADELPHIA 28, N.Y. Giants 27 (+6 1/2) - This is the first instance this season of a team having to go on the road and play a team they have already lost to at home earlier in the year - and such teams have won at a .332 clip dating all the way back to 1997, when all other road teams since then have a .423 winning percentage. But this line is too high given the Giants' huge comeback on Monday night and Michael Vick's hamstring virtually guaranteed to be significantly less than 100% so take the points.
Dallas 34 (+3), DETROIT 21 - The Lions continue to fall short against good teams, even at home, and Dez Bryant should have a huge day against the highly flammable Detroit secondary.
NEW ORLEANS 51, Buffalo 17 (+12 1/2) - Back-to-back fatigue games for Buffalo, both on the road (and New Orleans has won and covered four in a row off the bye) - and between the Bills having dropped their last three to the Saints by a combined 50 points and their 7-15 spread record indoors since 1999, this has all the makings of an old-fashioned blowout.
KANSAS CITY 24, Cleveland 10 (+7) - Honestly thought the Chiefs would be favored by 10 or 11. It's a steal at 7 unless they leave 10 sure points on the field the way they did last week against Houston (failed to convert on fourth down inside the 1-yard line, from which they also ran out the clock after returning a fumble off a sack there).
CINCINNATI 27, N.Y. Jets 23 (+6 1/2) - You can see with your own eyes how Geno Smith is improving game to game, and with the Jets having won nine of their last ten over the Bengals, including the last four by a combined 113-38, they are certainly worth a shot at least with the points despite the obvious letdown danger.
Pittsburgh 16, OAKLAND 10 (+3) - The Steelers haven't been winning any beauty contests with their play the last two weeks, but they nonetheless won them both and the Raiders following a bye week are about as ugly as it gets: Ten straight losses, and 1-9 against the spread.
DENVER 41, Washington 35 (+13) - The Broncos may have peaked too early, and RG3 hadn't looked the way he did last Sunday since before the knee injury. Definitely willing to take.
Atlanta 27 (+2 1/2), ARIZONA 14 - Even with their assorted injuries the Falcons still have vastly superior personnel, and until someone comes along and breaks "The Seattle Curse" - not one of the last 11 teams to play the Seahawks has covered in their next game - there is no reason to go against it.
Green Bay 24, MINNESOTA 20 (+7 1/2) - Josh Freeman simply needed a game, much like a horse that hasn't run in a long time may have needed a race - and all the talking heads were surprised at that? The home team not covering the spread in a Packers game - now that would be surprising, in that it has covered in their last ten games going back to last year.
Seattle 24, ST. LOUIS 0 (+10) - Until now I have resisted subscribing to the "Tim Tebow Has Been Blacklisted Theory." But the Rams contemplating signing proven failure Brady Quinn and/or obvious hack Austin Davis over Tebow in the wake of Sam Bradford's season-ending injury? Maybe they're afraid that Tebow will go on the kind of tear he went on in Denver two years ago and ruin their 2014 draft plans? The Seahawks have stepped it up greatly on the road in the last calendar year or so and can win this game however they want to - and if series trends are your gig, Seattle is 14-2 straight up and 10-5-1 against the spread versus St. Louis since 2005.
BEST BETS: SAN FRANCISCO, NEW ORLEANS, ATLANTA
To the clutch, there is only one sort of plebian - and that is the choke artist.
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