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Old 11-19-2014, 01:22 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 12 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-5. Season totals: 80-79-2, Pct. .503. Best Bets: 15-18, Pct. .455.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Kansas City
27, OAKLAND 17 (+6 1/2) - During their current 16-game losing streak, the Raiders are 1-7 against the spread at home, compared with 5-3 on the road, counting the Week 4 London game against Miami as a "home" game since it would have otherwise been played at Oakland. True, the Chiefs could be looking ahead to next week's Sunday nighter at home versus Denver which will very likely decide the AFC West; but even with a win in that game KC will need to win here to maintain their edge in the tie-breakers - and edge they would hold because one of their losses was in the season opener to Tennessee, a non-common opponent with the Broncos.


SUNDAY

BUFFALO
17, N.Y. Jets 10 (+4) - The Bills have one of the two most venerable late-season angles in their favor: They're at home, playing a team they have already beaten on the road earlier in the year (the other such angle, of course, involving warm-weather and domed-stadium teams having to play on the road in cold weather), plus they have outscored the Jets 65-23 in the last two at home. But I would feel a lot better about them if Doug Marrone were to do the right thing and go back to E.J. Manuel at quarterback.

PHILADELPHIA 30, Tennessee 23 (+11) - What a difference relocation has made for the Oilers/Titans franchise, at least as regards how they have fared against the Eagles: 0-6 both ways in Houston, 4-0 outright and 3-1 pointwise in Tennessee; and coming off a 33-point loss at Green Bay last week, it would take a 45-point reversal for Philadelphia to cover.

NEW ENGLAND 27, Detroit 13 (+6 1/2) - Won-lost records aside, the top-ranked Lions defense must move way up in class here, going from facing - and losing to - Drew Stanton last week, to taking on Tom Brady this week; and Detroit is 1-21 straight up since 2001, and also 15-25-1 against the line since 1994, as a visitor in cold weather.

Cleveland 31 (+3), ATLANTA 21 - The Browns get Josh Gordon back this week - and bet against Cleveland 2.0 in domes at your peril - they're 12-2 against the spread indoors! Furthermore, the AFC North is 8-1-1 straight up (and 7-3 against the spread) versus the NFC South, and the 4-6 Falcons - who if they're 4-0 within the NFC South must necessarily be 0-6 outside the division (and they're 1-5 against the spread) - appear poised to do the same thing the Saints (over whom Atlanta now holds the division lead on tie-breakers) have just done: Finally break through and win on the road, only to come home and lose.

INDIANAPOLIS 62, Jacksonville 7 (+13 1/2) - And I am totally serious about this score: In Week 3, the Colts won 44-17 at Jacksonville, and the game wasn't even that "close" - and that made it four in a row both ways for Indianapolis over the Jags by a combined 138-40; and Andrew Luck is 18-1 straight up and 16-3 against the spread in his last 19 games against sub-.500 teams (including teams with such records so far this season), and after playing four of their last five against .500 or better teams, look for the Colts to register the biggest blowout of the entire season.

CHICAGO 17, Tampa Bay 14 (+5 1/2) - Bears defense rebounded last week and should be well motivated facing ex-teammate Josh McCown, but the Bucs are two for two at covering in cold weather this year and the visiting team has covered the last four in the series (counting Chicago's 24-18 win in London as a 1 1/2-point underdog three years ago as a "road" victory because else that game would have been played in Tampa) so take the points.

Green Bay 28, MINNESOTA 20 (+10) - Before you scoff, the Packers are 2-3 straight up and 1-4 against the spread on the road this year, and they're 4-11 against the line on artificial turf since 2012, including 0-2 both ways this season. Despite the loss at Chicago last week, the Vikings are one of two NFL teams that is colossally overachieving in 2014, considering their overall circumstances (the Rams are the other). Willing to take a shot on Minnesota with the points in this spot.

HOUSTON 24, Cincinnati 17 (+1) - Who knows? Maybe Ryan Mallett is the answer at quarterback for the Texans, who have won and covered five in a row over the Bengals, who will be playing on natural grass for the first time this season here after having gone 1-4 straight up and 1-3-1 against the spread on it in 2013.

SAN DIEGO 31, St. Louis 10 (+6) - You know the drill by now: The Rams pull off a big upset one week, then crash to earth in a thumping letdown the next - and the fact that the home team in this series has won the last six meetings and covered in five of them is merely icing on what figures to be a highly lucrative cake.

SEATTLE 17, Arizona 16 (+6 1/2) - Remember that kitchen remodeling commercial from a while back in which the wife asks her husband, "Honey, what year is it?" Well apparently the oddsmakers have the same problem: The year is 2014 - a year in which the Seahawks trail the Cardinals by three games. On principle, you can't lay this number - and not for nothing, but even last year it was Arizona that was the only opponent to win in Seattle in ten games, including playoffs.

DENVER 34, Miami 20 (+7) - The Dolphins may have reached their high-water mark with last Thursday night's win over Buffalo, as three of their next four games are in cold weather, in which Miami is 16-35 straight up and 22-28-1 against the spread since 1995, and the lone home game is no slam-dunk for them either, against Baltimore in two weeks. And if we're damning the looking ahead and going full speed ahead with the Chiefs in this week's Thursday nighter, we might as well do the same thing with the Broncos.

SAN FRANCISCO 28, Washington 10 (+8) - Maybe Rodney Harrison is right about RG3; and now DeSean Jackson has joined the D.C. slimefest, going online with this thought: "You can't do epic s--- with basic people" - and could it be that Jay Gruden would have to improve, and improve massively, to be even a basic head coach (see David Shula)? The 49ers haven't exactly been doing it to death of late but should have little trouble rewarding both those who root for them and those who bet on them this week.

Dallas 31, N.Y. GIANTS 24 (+3) - The last of Eli Manning's five interceptions last week was Tom Coughlin's fault, in that Coughlin clearly should have attempted a field goal on that play (this of course being Coughlin's second play-calling blunder along these lines this year, the first one costing the Giants Victor Cruz for the rest of this season, and perhaps beyond, in Week 6). Would tend to believe that the fact that Tony Romo is 25-5 lifetime in November - and that the Cowboys are an NFL-third-best 17-8 outright and second-best 18-6-1 pointwise off the bye - trumps the 17-31 straight-up record Dallas has hung up since 1995 as a visitor in cold weather, especially at this price.


MONDAY NIGHT

Baltimore
28 (+3), NEW ORLEANS 21 - As alluded to in the Cleveland-Atlanta pick, it's hard to give points on an NFC South team against an AFC North team - and The Modell/Bisciotti Franchise is 5-1 straight up in the last six against the Saints, and 6-1 versus the points in the last seven, and the Ravens have won and covered four in a row indoors.


BEST BETS: CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN DIEGO

Last edited by Anthony; 11-19-2014 at 03:55 AM.
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