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Old 10-18-2017, 10:03 AM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 7 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-6. Season totals: 48-41, Pct. .539. Best Bets: 9-9, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


Kansas City
24, OAKLAND 14 (+3) - The Chiefs beat Oakland twice last year, also winning the first meeting on the road. And home-field advantage? What home-field advantage? Home teams are actually below .500 - 44-45 - straight up thus far in 2017 (with two games in London), and 40-47 against the spread (two games opened at pick 'em).


L.A. Rams
30, Arizona 23 (+3) - All three of the games the 3-3 Cardinals have won have been over teams with losing records, including last week when Ryan Fitzpatrick almost led Tampa Bay from down 31-6 after Jameis Winston injured his shoulder. Jared Goff is showing solid progress with a 93.2 passer rating in his second season, and this game, in London, also kicks off at 1:00 ET, when Arizona has non-covered nine in a row.

N.Y. Jets 31 (+4), MIAMI 17 - The Jets can "thank" Ken Stabler and Dave Casper for their loss last week, because it was Stabler and Casper's "fumble-ooski" play in 1978 that led to the rule change, passed the following spring, which cost them that apparent touchdown by Austin Seferian-Jenkins. But it seems as if nothing can cost them a win over the Dolphins, whom they have beaten six times in a row by a combined 83 points (183-100).

Seattle 14, N.Y. GIANTS 10 (+6) - The Giants go from facing the best team in the NFL coming off a bye last week to facing the worst team in the NFL doing so this week - Seattle is a deadly 6-20-2 against the spread following the bye, and is never a good bet on the road. So why not take the points?

BUFFALO 24, Tampa Bay 13 (+3) - And it doesn't matter whether Winston plays or not: The home team is 9-0-1 against the spread lifetime in this series, and the bye-fatigue mirror image closely resembles that of last week's New Orleans-Detroit game: The Bills are 17-11 straight up coming off a bye week while the Bucs are 9-16 straight up in fatigue games. Throw in Tampa Bay's 4-15 outright and 7-12 pointwise records on rugs since 2013 and you what have you got? One of the week's safest investments.

Tennessee 31, CLEVELAND 16 (+5) - The "short week jinx" (don't bet on teams coming off a Monday night game) appears to be cooling off (the last three such teams have covered), and if Hue Jackson keeps going back and forth between DeShone Kizer and no-hoper Kevin Hogan at quarterback all he is going to do is to destroy Kizer's confidence.

INDIANAPOLIS 23 (+3), Jacksonville 20 - Talk about a night-and-day difference: The Colts are 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread at home, and 0-3 both ways and outscored 128-49 on the road! Jacksonville still hasn't won in a dome since November 13, 2011, losing eight consecutive indoor games and getting outscored 242-136 in them (so far this season the Lucas Oil Stadium roof has been closed for all three home games) or won or covered as a road favorite since that same date (maybe that's because the Jags have only been road favorites once since then - three weeks ago against the Jets).

Carolina 26, CHICAGO 24 (+4) - All of Mitchell Trubisky's drinks in Chicago are on the house now, and the underdog in this series has covered seven of nine lifetime and Carolina has back-to-back NFC South games coming up. So take the points despite the three extra days preparation time that the Panthers have.

MINNESOTA 17, Baltimore 17 (+4 1/2) - And speaking of drinks, it's been a long time between drinks for Team Modell in Minnesota - as in not having won there since 1986. They're also 7-16 straight up in their last 23 indoors, which goes so far back that it includes two losses in 1995 as Cleveland 1.0, one of which was at the original Triple H. But the Vikings could be ripe for a letdown after knocking off the Packers last week (and apparently knocking Aaron Rodgers out for the season), and favorites are doing even worse than home teams in 2017: 35-54 against the spread. After a succession of near misses (the Ravens themselves being part of one of those just last week), the first tie game under the new overtime rules finally happens - with no doubt more to follow.

New Orleans 27, GREEN BAY 13 (+4 1/2) - The last time Rodgers was out, the Packers lost their first game to the Eagles at Lambeau, 27-13 wouldn't you know it; by contrast, Philadelphia is 0-4 by a combined 128-69 against Rodgers. Well the Saints are 2-10 straight and up and 3-9 against the spread in franchise history on the road versus Green Bay, with the first seven games played in Milwaukee. Both the NFC North (due to the physical injury to Rodgers) and South (due to the emotional injuries to the Falcons!) are wide open.

Dallas 28, SAN FRANCISCO 10 (+6) - C.J. Beathard actually didn't look that bad after l'enfant terrible Kyle Shanahan benched Brian Hoyer - but we have seen this movie enough times before to know that Beathard didn't have time to get nervous, and that this time around he will. And with Denver obviously not covering Sunday night, the Cowboys can move into a tie with the Broncos for best spread-covering percentage in the league coming off a bye week with a cover here - and with the 49ers "improving" to 7-13 against the line in fatigue games with last week's cover in such a game and Dallas sparkling on grass with a 15-4 spread record on it since 2014, look for the Cowboys to attain that co-leadership and end Frisco's streak of nail-biting losses, as the loyalists trounce the seditionists in the "National Anthem Bowl."

PITTSBURGH 34, Cincinnati 17 (+7) - CBS will regret moving this game into the late time slot: Where the Seahawks are worst at covering the spread coming off a bye week, the Bengals are the worst at winning straight up coming off a bye week, at 8-19-1 (the tie coming in that famous game in which Donovan McNabb didn't know that it was possible for an NFL game to end in a tie), while the Steelers are the NFL's most prolific spread-coverers in fatigue games (9-4 against the line). Pittsburgh has also dominated the series of late, with four straight wins (3-1 against the spread) and wins in six of the last seven (5-2 against the spread).

L.A. CHARGERS 20 (+1), Denver 14 - The Broncos are never going anywhere with Trevor Siemian at quarterback - and like the hustle that the young Chargers are showing.

NEW ENGLAND 38, Atlanta 21 (+4 1/2) - At the mere sight of a Patriot jersey the Falcons will cringe - and while it is true that New England has allowed every opposing quarterback a 300-yard game this year and you can bet that Matt Ryan will get one too, you can be almost as sure that Ryan will serve up at least one Pick Six. Pats have also won their last five both ways over Atlanta.


28, Washington 13 (+5 1/2) - This is the first time this comes up this year: Dating back to 1997, teams losing the first meeting at home to a division rival have won the second meeting on the road just 33.3% of the time, while the road team has won 42.5% of all other games since then. Battle-tested (after their win at NFC South-leading Carolina) and well-rested (that game was on Thursday night), the Eagles will complete the sweep of Washington and take what could prove to be an insurmountable lead in the NFC East.


Last edited by Anthony; 10-18-2017 at 10:34 AM.
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Old 10-21-2017, 07:41 AM   #2
Jack Knoff
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Best Bets:

ATL +4.5 over NE
ATL @ NE under 56.5
AZ +3 over LAR
Originally Posted by buckeye
Sounds to me like they're still waiting for a good old-fashion ass kicking.
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Old 10-23-2017, 08:54 PM   #3
Jack Knoff
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ATL +4.5 over NE - LOSS
ATL @ NE under 56.5 - WIN
AZ +3 over LAR - LOSS

1-2, and 2-4 for the season.

Originally Posted by buckeye
Sounds to me like they're still waiting for a good old-fashion ass kicking.
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