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Old 09-14-2004, 02:33 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool NFL Pointspread Contest: Week 2

Here are the opening lines for Week 2:

Sunday, September 19:

Washington 2 1/2 over N.Y. GIANTS (1:00 PM EDT)
ATLANTA 2 1/2 over St. Louis
Denver 3 over JACKSONVILLE
DETROIT 3 1/2 over Houston
BALTIMORE 4 over Pittsburgh
TENNESSEE 3 over Indianapolis
GREEN BAY 8 over Chicago
NEW ORLEANS 6 1/2 over San Francisco
KANSAS CITY 5 over Carolina
Seattle 2 1/2 over TAMPA BAY (4:05 PM EDT)
DALLAS 3 1/2 over Cleveland (4:15 PM EDT)
New England 6 1/2 over ARIZONA
N.Y. Jets 3 over SAN DIEGO
OAKLAND 3 1/2 over Buffalo
CINCINNATI 4 over Miami (8:30 PM EDT)

Monday, September 20:

PHILADELPHIA 4 over Minnesota (9:00 PM EDT)

Home team in CAPS

NOTE: Don't forget to designate three picks as "Best Bets" (these are used to break ties between pickers with the same overall record; if no Best Bets are included in post the picker is placed behind all others who have the same overall record).

Deadline for posting picks is kickoff of earliest game listed.

Any unpicked game counts as an automatic loss, even if game ends in push vs. spread. If a poster leaves a game unpicked in the original post, the pick on that game may be added before the kickoff of the earliest game to be played that week, but the addition must be made in a separate post and not by editing the original post (if I notice that someone has left a game unpicked, I will attempt to contact the poster by sending a private message; however there is no guarantee that I will catch every single one, especially in the case of picks being posted very late in the week). Under no circumstances can any pick be changed (from one team to the opposing team) once it has been posted.

Pushes count as ties in determining both overall and Best Bet records.

Last edited by Anthony; 09-16-2004 at 05:15 AM.
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Old 09-14-2004, 12:48 PM   #2
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Washington
Atlanta (BB)
Denver
Detroit (BB)
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Green Bay
San Francisco
Kansas City
Seattle (BB) (How it pains me to do that).
Cleveland
New England
N.Y. Jets
Oakland
Miami
Minnesota
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Old 09-14-2004, 05:38 PM   #3
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St. Louis
Denver (BB)
DETROIT
BALTIMORE
Indianapolis
GREEN BAY (BB)
NEW ORLEANS
KANSAS CITY
Seattle
DALLAS
New England (BB)
N.Y. Jets
Buffalo
CINCINNATI
PHILADELPHIA
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Old 09-15-2004, 02:34 AM   #4
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Last week: 5-10-1. Season totals: 5-10-1, Pct. .344. Best Best: 0-3, Pct. .000.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team.


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS 20 (+2 1/2), Washington 13 - New coach and not one but two new quarterbacks, but same old Giants: 413 yards in the opener at Philadelphia but only 17 points to show for it. But the Redskins lack the pass-rush muscle to exploit the disarrayed Giant offensive line and giving points with them on artificial turf may not be a good idea given Washington's 9-21 straight-up record since 1997 as a visitor on the carpet.

SAN DIEGO 23 (+3), N.Y. Jets 21 - Two years ago Drew Brees went 15-of-19 for 160 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions on opening day for a 135.9 passer rating - but it was all downhill after that as his final number for that year was 76.9, ranking 24th in the league. Last week, Brees was 17-for-24 for 209 yards, two TDs and no picks, which comes out to 125.2. The roof falls in again? Maybe, maybe not - but the Jets are difficult to trust as favorites visiting on grass, a role in which they've dropped nine of their last twelve outright.

St. Louis 34 (+2 1/2), ATLANTA 27 - Hard to go against the Rams as underdogs to a team they have clouted seven straight times by a combined 264-88, but after last week's scare against Arizona at home those who are involved in suicide pools may want to take their business elsewhere this week.

Denver 31, JACKSONVILLE 21 (+3) - Can't believe I'd ever be saying that Jake Plummer is better than Drew Bledsoe, but right now that's clearly and obviously the case - and the suspect Jacksonville secondary won't handle the rise in class with the Jaguars facing both a letdown threat from their first road win under Jack Del Rio and the danger of looking ahead to back-to-back AFC South games - first at Tennessee, then at home against Indianapolis.

DETROIT 10, Houston 9 (+3 1/2) - Detroit lucked out big time in ending its NFL-record road losing streak in the opener, getting outplayed by any objective measure but prevailing thanks to four Chicago turnovers and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. The Texans also had four turnovers last week, and if they do a better job of protecting the ball here they should at least manage a cover as the Lions are 1-5 against the line in their last six as home favorites, including a non-covering straight-up victory when favored by less than a field goal in each of the past two seasons.

BALTIMORE 16, Pittsburgh 14 (+4) - And this could be another small favorite that wins the game but doesn't cover: The Steelers have covered seven in a row at Baltimore, and their defense comes off holding Oakland to 61 yards rushing on 22 carries, a 2.8-yard average.

Indianapolis 27 (+3), TENNESSEE 20 - A game against the post-Ricky Williams Dolphins is hardly a conclusive test of how much this past spring's salary-cap-driven bloodletting has weakened the Titans, but this game will provide such a test. The Colts would lose control of their own destiny in the AFC South with a loss here, but it won't happen.

NEW ORLEANS 28, San Francisco 17 (+6 1/2) - If you ask me, Dennis Erickson is using Tim Rattay's marginal shoulder separation as an excuse to do what he wanted to do anyway - bench Rattay and start Ken Dorsey at quarterback. But it won't help as the Saints have covered seven of their last eight against San Fran and the 49ers are 7-15-1 versus the points in their last 23 on the carpet and 5-12 against the line in their last 17 inside NFL domes.

GREEN BAY 35, Chicago 7 (+8) - It may take the Bears weeks if not months to put the sheer embarrassment of letting Detroit break its three-year road drought at their expense behind them and Green Bay has beaten them in 18 of the last 20 meetings - the most lopsided domination by one division rival over another during that period in the NFL. The Packers are also 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven versus Chicago and should have little trouble duplicating their surprisingly easy, run-oriented Monday night win over Carolina taking on the undersized Bears defensive line.

KANSAS CITY 23, Carolina 20 (+5) - Not only did the Panthers lose the game on Monday night, but they also lost wide receiver Steve Smith for at least two months with a broken leg. But if this comes down to a battle of running backs one might find the prospect of getting a good big running back (Stephen Davis) plus five points against a good little running back (Priest Holmes) to be too attractive a proposition to pass up.

TAMPA BAY 17 (+2 1/2*), Seattle 13 - Seahawks dominated in New Orleans but will probably be without Shaun Alexander here (sprained knee) and unlike that game this one's on grass, upon which Seattle has won only a third of the time (12-24) straight up since 1998.

DALLAS 27, Cleveland 10 (+3 1/2) - This is letdown territory for the Browns after regaining their manhood against Jamal Lewis. And why is this number so low? Best bet.

New England 28, ARIZONA 13 (+6 1/2) - Another bargain line, especially considering that the Patriots will have nine days to prepare for the game while the Cardinals get only six.

OAKLAND 16, Buffalo 7 (+3 1/2) - At least so far the coaching change hasn't solved Buffalo's offensive woes and the Bills are 1-7 straight up in their last eight visiting the Raiders and haven't won in Oakland since 1966; Buffalo is also 14-33 straight up and 18-27-2 against the line since 1995 as a visitor on the grass.

Miami 20 (+4), CINCINNATI 17 - I'm sure Spike Lee would agree that Dave Wannstedt is doing the right thing in making the switch at quarterback to A.J. Feeley - and the Dolphins always seem to do the right thing against the Bengals, whom they have beaten nine consecutive times, last having lost to Cincinnati in 1977. Miami also has a current four-game win-and-cover streak on artificial turf, to which the playing surface at Paul Brown Stadium was converted over the spring.

MONDAY NIGHT

PHILADELPHIA 39, Minnesota 21 (+4) - Fat Boy - and in Philly they mean that in an endearing way - is 13-1 both ways on prime time, the home team in this series has won six in a row and has covered five straight, and the Vikings have lost 16 of their last 17 on grass (with only four covers and one push) and 17 of their last 18 outdoors (covering four times with two pushes). T.O. as a best bet - how fashionably decadent!

BEST BETS: GREEN BAY, DALLAS, PHILADELPHIA

*Seattle at Tampa Bay is in a circle because Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander is doubtful.

Last edited by Anthony; 09-15-2004 at 08:11 AM.
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Old 09-15-2004, 05:55 PM   #5
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Anthony, I expected some comment about west coast teams against the spread when they open on the season on the road for their first two games, leaving Pacific Time for both games....

How am I supposed to get that pick right without your insights on that aspect of the Seattle-Tampa game?

Dave
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Old 09-15-2004, 06:25 PM   #6
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Redskins, BB #1--Even on the road, I think this line is stupidly short.

Rams, BB #2 -- Remind me when the last time a Mora, Jr., defense contained a Rams offense. On turf. Anywhere? With lesser D talent than he had at SF, it seems unlikely. What a stupid line.

Broncos -- What can I say? Keep Plummer from lofting lefty, and the Ponies are okay.

Lions -- I'm not sold on this line. I'm taking the Lions to cover, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Steelers -- Steelers OTR ATS are... I have no idea. I think they'll be fine, cover the spread, and possibly win.

Colts -- Colts and Seahawks have toughest opening two weeks schedule in history?

Packers -- Should cover easily, but you never know, so it's not a BB. 8's a lot.

Saints -- Saints ought to cover. I'm torn. I almost want to take the Niners, but Dorsey at QB??

Chiefs, BB #3 -- Chiefs should cover twice. Panthers were uninspired. And uninspiring.

Seahawks -- Seahawks leave their time zone for second time in two weeks to open the season. Yuck. Still... I saw that Tampa offense. IT didn't score ANY points. ST put it in position for 3, and the D scored 7. Questions?

Browns -- I think the 'Boys win, but by fewer than 3.5.

Cardinals -- NE doesn't win by margins larger than 5. Take into account the fact that the Pats could be seen as vulnerable to Green's ability to run with the aged Mr Smith... Pats win, but not by much.

Jets -- Don't believe the hype. The Chargers... not so great.

Bills -- I think Oakland wins, but by a FG or less.

Bengals -- Bengals get a good measure against a team whose talent is greater, but whose team is worse, if that makes any sense.

Vikings -- I don't think I'm buying the Eagles just yet. Let's somebody prove the Giants aren't the worst team in the NFL first. Should be a great game, though. I like the Vikings to win, but if they lose, lose by fewer than four.

Dave
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Old 09-16-2004, 02:36 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by MountaineerDave
Anthony, I expected some comment about west coast teams against the spread when they open on the season on the road for their first two games, leaving Pacific Time for both games....

How am I supposed to get that pick right without your insights on that aspect of the Seattle-Tampa game?

Dave

Since the game is in the late time slot even though it's at Tampa, that trend doesn't apply.

But now that you've brung this up, I'm going to research this when I get a free moment.
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Old 09-16-2004, 01:29 PM   #8
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N.Y. GIANTS
St. Louis
Denver
Houston
BALTIMORE
Indianapolis
GREEN BAY (best bet)
San Francisco
Carolina
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
New England
SAN DIEGO
OAKLAND (best bet)
CINCINNATI
Minnesota (best bet)
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Old 09-16-2004, 04:05 PM   #9
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Anthony--

Do we have any pointspread problems with the NO game? Talk of it being moved, the Saints practicing in San Antonio instead of N'Awlins, etc...

Just wondering if the spread's affected, and whether that should play into our gentlemen's contest here.

Dave
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Old 09-16-2004, 09:15 PM   #10
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Washington (best bet)
St. Louis
Denver
Houston
Pitt
Indy
Green Bay
San fran (best bet)
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Dallas
New England
Jets
Buffalo
Miami

Minn (best bet)
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Old 09-16-2004, 11:46 PM   #11
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Washington
Atlanta
Denver (BB)
Houston
Baltimore
Indianapolis
Green Bay (BB)
New Orleans
Kansas City
Seattle
Dallas
New England (BB)
N.Y. Jets
Oakland
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
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Old 09-17-2004, 12:15 AM   #12
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Washington 2 1/2 (BB)
ATLANTA 2 1/2
Denver 3
DETROIT 3 1/2
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
GREEN BAY 8
NEW ORLEANS 6 1/2
KANSAS CITY 5 (BB)
Seattle (4:05 PM EDT)
Cleveland (4:15 PM EDT)
New England 6 1/2 \
N.Y. Jets 3
OAKLAND 3 1/2
CINCINNATI 4

Monday, September 20:

PHILADELPHIA (BB)
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Old 09-17-2004, 02:26 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by MountaineerDave
Anthony--

Do we have any pointspread problems with the NO game? Talk of it being moved, the Saints practicing in San Antonio instead of N'Awlins, etc...

Just wondering if the spread's affected, and whether that should play into our gentlemen's contest here.

Dave

Since Hurricane Ivan ended up veering off to the east, it doesn't look like the 49ers-Saints game is going to be moved.

If anything like that does happen - as it did last year with the Miami at San Diego game - I would probably post an official message voiding the game and all picks made on it.
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Old 09-17-2004, 02:50 AM   #14
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IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT:

There was an error in one of the opening lines this week; the error was made by the Scores And Odds people, not by me []. It turns out that Seattle, not Tampa Bay, opened as the 2 1/2-point favorite in that game.



Normally changing picks is not allowed, but due to this error, anyone who wishes to change their pick on the above game is free to do so - but if you decide to do it, please do it by making a separate post - do NOT edit the post you have already made.

Sorry for the inconvenience.
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Old 09-17-2004, 09:19 AM   #15
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Washington
Atl
Denver (BB)
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
Green Bay
New Orleans (BB)
Kansas City
Seattle
Cleveland
Arizona
N.Y. Jets
Oakland
Cincinati
Minnesota (BB)
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